2020 United States Senate special election in Arizona

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2020 United States Senate special election in Arizona
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  SenatorKellyOfficialPhoto (cropped 2).jpg Sen. Martha McSally official Senate headshot 116th congress (cropped).jpg
Nominee Mark Kelly Martha McSally
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote1,716,4671,637,661
Percentage51.16%48.81%
2020 United States Senate special election in Arizona results map by county.svg
2020 US Senate special election in Arizona results by congressional district.svg
2020 Senate Election in Arizona by Precinct.svg
Kelly:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
McSally:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80-90%     >90%
Tie:     50%     No data
U.S. senator before election

Martha McSally [lower-alpha 1]
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Mark Kelly
Democratic

The 2020 United States Senate special election in Arizona was held on November 3, 2020, following the death in office of incumbent Republican U.S. Senator John McCain on August 25, 2018. Governor Doug Ducey was required by Arizona law to appoint a Republican to fill the vacant seat until a special election winner could be sworn in. [1] [2] On September 5, 2018, Ducey appointed former U.S. Senator Jon Kyl to fill McCain's seat. However, Kyl announced he would resign on December 31, 2018. [3]

Contents

On December 18, 2018, Ducey announced that outgoing U.S. Representative Martha McSally would be appointed to fill the seat following Kyl's resignation. [4] McSally was sworn in as the state's junior U.S. Senator on January 3, 2019, less than two months after she was defeated by Democrat Kyrsten Sinema for Arizona's Class 1 U.S. Senate seat. [5] McSally ran to complete the term, defeating skincare executive Daniel McCarthy in the Republican primary. She faced former astronaut Mark Kelly, [6] who ran uncontested in the Democratic primary. Primary elections took place on August 4, 2020. [7]

Once a reliably Republican state, Arizona trended more purple in the late 2010s. Kelly significantly outraised McSally and led by about 5% in the average poll leading up to Election Day.

Kelly defeated McSally by a margin of 2.4% on election night, thereby flipping the seat Democratic. As a result, he outperformed Joe Biden in the concurrent presidential election, who defeated President Donald Trump by a margin of 0.3% in the state, but underperformed his polling average. Kelly became the first Democrat to win the Class 3 Senate seat since Carl Hayden won his last term in 1962. [8] This also marked the first time since the 82nd Congress preceding the 1952 election that Democrats held both Senate seats in Arizona.

Kelly was sworn in on December 2, 2020.

Interim appointments

Appointees

Potential candidates not appointed

Republican primary

Incumbent McSally faced one challenger: Daniel McCarthy, a skincare company executive. McCarthy's independent wealth was expected to set up a bruising and expensive primary campaign; however, McSally won the primary in a landslide. [16]

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

  • Sean Lyons (as a write-in candidate) [19]
  • Daniel McCarthy, skincare company executive [20]

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Martha McSally

U.S. presidents

State officials

Individuals

Organizations

Primary results

Results by county: .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} McSally--80-90% McSally--70-80% McSally--60-70% Arizona U.S. Senate Republican primary, 2020.svg
Results by county:
  McSally—80–90%
  McSally—70–80%
  McSally—60–70%
Republican primary results [48]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Martha McSally (incumbent) 551,119 75.2%
Republican Daniel McCarthy181,55124.8%
Republican Sean Lyons (write-in)210nil
Total votes732,880 100.0%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

  • Bo "Heir Archy" Garcia (as a write-in candidate) [19]

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Primary results

Democratic primary results [48]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Mark Kelly 665,620 99.9%
Democratic Bo Garcia (write-in)4510.1%
Total votes666,071 100.0%

Libertarian primary

Neither one of the write-in candidates received enough votes to secure the Libertarian nomination in the general election.

Write-in candidates

Eliminated in primary

Primary results

Libertarian primary results [48]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Libertarian Barry Hess (write-in)32976.5%
Libertarian Alan White (write-in)10123.5%
Total votes430 100.0%

Other candidates

General election write-in candidates

Declared

Republican

  • Edward Davida [81]
  • John Schiess [81]
  • Debbie Simmons [81]
  • Patrick "Pat" Thomas [81]

Democratic

Other

  • Christopher Beckett, veteran (Independent) [81]
  • William "Will" Decker (Independent) [81]
  • Matthew "Doc" Dorchester (Libertarian) [81]
  • Nicholas N. Glenn, Navy veteran and aerospace engineer (Independent Republican) [81]
  • Mathew Haupt (Independent) [81]
  • Benjamin Rodriguez (Independent) [81]
  • Joshua Rodriguez (Unity) [81]
  • Frank Saenz (Independent) [81]
  • Jim Stevens (Independent) [81]

Withdrawn

General election

Debates

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [84] Lean D (flip)October 29, 2020
Inside Elections [85] Tilt D (flip)October 28, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball [86] Lean D (flip)November 2, 2020
Daily Kos [87] Lean D (flip)October 30, 2020
Politico [88] Lean D (flip)November 2, 2020
RCP [89] TossupOctober 23, 2020
DDHQ [90] Likely D (flip)November 3, 2020
538 [91] Likely D (flip)November 2, 2020
Economist [92] Lean D (flip)November 2, 2020

Endorsements

Martha McSally (R)

Federal officials

State officials

Organizations

Newspapers

Individuals

Polling

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

Mark Kelly vs. Martha McSally
Source of poll aggregationDates administeredDates updated Mark Kelly Martha McSally Margin
270 to Win [108] November 2, 2020November 3, 202049.8%44.8%
Real Clear Politics [109] November 1, 2020November 3, 202050.5%44.8%
Average50.2%44.8%
Polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 2] 		Margin
of error		Martha
McSally (R)		Mark
Kelly (D)		Other /
Undecided
Ipsos/Reuters [110] October 27 – November 2, 2020610 (LV)± 4.5%44%53%4% [lower-alpha 3]
Change Research/CNBC [111] October 29 – November 1, 2020409 (LV)± 4.9%47%51%2% [lower-alpha 4]
NBC News/Marist [112] October 29 – November 1, 2020717 (LV)± 4.5%46%52%2% [lower-alpha 5]
Swayable [113] October 27 – November 1, 2020333 (LV)± 7.2%45%55%–
Data for Progress [114] October 27 – November 1, 20201,195 (LV)± 2.8%46%54%0% [lower-alpha 6]
Emerson College [115] October 29–31, 2020732 (LV)± 3.6%48%50%2% [lower-alpha 7]
Morning Consult [116] October 22–31, 20201,059 (LV)± 3%44%48%–
Data Orbital [117] October 28–30, 2020550 (LV)± 4.2%46%47%7% [lower-alpha 8]
Siena College/NYT Upshot [118] October 26–30, 20201,253 (LV)± 3%43%50%6% [lower-alpha 9]
Grand Canyon Battleground Poll [119] October 25–30, 2020910 (LV)± 3.1%43%46%11% [lower-alpha 10]
CNN/SSRS [120] October 23–30, 2020892 (LV)± 4.0%45%51%5% [lower-alpha 11]
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports [121] October 27–29, 2020800 (LV)± 3.5%43%48%9% [lower-alpha 12]
Gravis Marketing [122] October 26–28, 2020704 (LV)± 3.7%45%50%6% [lower-alpha 13]
Ipsos/Reutuers [123] October 21–27, 2020714 (LV)± 4.2%44%51%5% [lower-alpha 14]
Swayable [124] October 23–26, 2020286 (LV)± 7.4%44%56%–
Justice Collaborative Project (D) [125] [upper-alpha 1] October 22–25, 2020874 (LV)± 3.1%40%50%10% [lower-alpha 15]
OH Predictive Insights [126] October 22–25, 2020716 (LV)± 3.7%45%50%4% [lower-alpha 16]
Univision/University of Houston/Latino
Decisions/North Star Opinion Research [127] 		October 17–25, 2020725 (RV)± 3.6%39%51%10% [lower-alpha 17]
Patinkin Research Strategies (D) [128] October 21–24, 2020729 (LV)± 3.6%46%53%2% [lower-alpha 18]
Y2 Analytics [129] October 15–24, 2020700 (LV)± 3.7%47%51%–
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. (R) [130] [upper-alpha 2] October 19–22, 2020500 (LV)± 4.4%50%47%4% [lower-alpha 19]
Ipsos/Reuters [131] October 14–21, 2020658 (LV)± 4.4%43%51%5% [lower-alpha 20]
Morning Consult [116] October 11–20, 20201,066 (LV)± 3%44%48%–
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports [132] October 18–19, 2020800 (LV)± 3.5%44%46%10% [lower-alpha 21]
Change Research/CNBC [133] October 16–19, 2020232 (LV) [lower-alpha 22] –43%54%–
RMG Research [134] October 14–19, 2020800 (LV)± 3.5%39% [lower-alpha 23] 49%15% [lower-alpha 24]
37% [lower-alpha 25] 49%15% [lower-alpha 24]
40% [lower-alpha 26] 44%15% [lower-alpha 24]
Data Orbital [135] October 16–18, 2020550 (LV)± 4.2%42%48%10% [lower-alpha 27]
YouGov/CBS [136] October 13–16, 20201,074 (LV)± 4.1%41%52%7% [lower-alpha 28]
Ipsos/Reuters [137] October 7–14, 2020667 (LV)± 4.3%41%52%8% [lower-alpha 29]
Monmouth University [138] October 9–13, 2020502 (RV)± 4.4%42%52%5% [lower-alpha 30]
502 (LV) [lower-alpha 31] 42%52%–
502 (LV) [lower-alpha 32] 45%51%–
Morning Consult [116] October 2–11, 20201,144 (LV)± 2.9%41%49%–
Trafalgar Group [139] October 6–9, 20201,045 (LV)± 3.0%45%47%7% [lower-alpha 33]
OH Predictive Insights [140] October 4–8, 2020608 (LV)± 4.0%45%50%6% [lower-alpha 34]
Ipsos/Reuters [141] September 29 – October 7, 2020663 (LV)± 4.3%41%51%8% [lower-alpha 35]
Latino Decisions (D) [142] [upper-alpha 3] September 28 – October 6, 2020600 (LV)± 4%42%47%7% [lower-alpha 36]
Basswood Research (R) [143] [upper-alpha 4] October 3–5, 2020800 (LV)± 3.5%49%47%4% [lower-alpha 37]
Data Orbital [144] October 3–5, 2020550 (LV)± 4.2%44%49%7% [lower-alpha 38]
HighGround Inc. [145] September 28 – October 5, 2020400 (LV)± 4.9%44%50%7% [lower-alpha 39]
Change Research/CNBC [146] October 2–4, 2020296 (LV)–43%51%6% [lower-alpha 40]
Siena College/NYT Upshot [147] October 1–3, 2020655 (LV)± 4.2%39%50%11% [lower-alpha 41]
Patinkin Research Strategies/Arizona Research Consortium (D) [148] October 1–3, 2020604 (LV)± 3.8%45%50%5% [lower-alpha 42]
Targoz Market Research [149] September 23 – October 2, 20201,045 (LV)± nil41%51%8%
Morning Consult [150] September 22 – October 1, 20201,048 (LV)± 3%38% [lower-alpha 43] 51%10% [lower-alpha 44]
Suffolk University [151] September 26–30, 2020500 (LV)± 4.4%40%49%11% [lower-alpha 45]
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. (R) [152] [upper-alpha 2] September 25–28, 2020500 (LV)± 4.3%45%48%–
Data for Progress (D) [153] September 23–28, 2020808 (LV)± 3.4%42%51%7% [lower-alpha 36]
Morning Consult [154] September 19–28, 2020~1,000 (LV)± 3%36%53%10% [lower-alpha 46]
Data For Progress [155] [upper-alpha 5] September 15–22, 2020481 (LV)± 4.4%38%47%15% [lower-alpha 47]
Change Research/CNBC [156] September 18–20, 2020262 (LV)–43%51%6% [lower-alpha 48]
ABC News/Washington Post [157] September 15–20, 2020579 (LV)± 4.5%48%49%3% [lower-alpha 49]
Morning Consult [158] September 11–20, 2020907 (LV)± 3% [lower-alpha 50] 40%49%–
Hart Research Associates (D) [159] [upper-alpha 6] September 17–19, 2020400 (LV)± 4.9%43%55%–
Ipsos/Reuters [160] September 11–17, 2020565 (LV)± 4.7%41%50%8% [lower-alpha 51]
Morning Consult [161] September 8–17, 2020900 (LV) [lower-alpha 22] ± (2% – 4%)41% [lower-alpha 50] 48%–
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R) [162] [upper-alpha 7] September 14–16, 2020800 (LV)± 3.5%46%48%6% [lower-alpha 13]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [163] September 12–16, 2020855 (LV)± 3.4%35%53%13% [lower-alpha 52]
Monmouth University [164] September 11–15, 2020420 (RV)± 4.8%44%50%5% [lower-alpha 30]
420 (LV) [lower-alpha 31] 46%50%4% [lower-alpha 53]
420 (LV) [lower-alpha 32] 48%49%4% [lower-alpha 53]
Siena College/NYT Upshot [165] September 10–15, 2020653 (LV)± 4.1%42%50%8% [lower-alpha 54]
Morning Consult [154] September 5–14, 2020~1,000 (LV)± 3%38%50%13% [lower-alpha 55]
Patinkin Research Strategies/Arizona Research Consortium (D) [148] September 10–13, 2020679 (LV)± 3.8%45%50%5% [lower-alpha 42]
Kaiser Family Foundation/Cook Political Report [166] August 29 – September 13, 20201,298 (RV)± 3.0%36%44%20% [lower-alpha 56]
Gravis Marketing [167] September 10–11, 2020684 (LV)± 3.8%43%48%9% [lower-alpha 57]
YouGov/CBS [168] September 9–11, 20201,106 (LV)± 3.9%42%49%9% [lower-alpha 58]
OH Predictive Insights [169] September 8–10, 2020600 (LV)± 4%42%52%6% [lower-alpha 59]
Benenson Strategy Group/GS Strategy Group [170] [upper-alpha 8] August 28 – September 8, 20201,600 (LV)± 2.5%45%48%7% [lower-alpha 60]
Change Research/CNBC [171] September 4–6, 2020470 (LV)± 4.6%45%51%4% [lower-alpha 61]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [172] August 30 – September 4, 2020830 (LV)± 3.4%38%53%8% [lower-alpha 62]
Morning Consult [154] August 26 – September 4, 2020~1,000 (LV)± 3%39%50%11% [lower-alpha 63]
FOX News [173] August 29 – September 1, 2020772 (LV)± 3.5%39%56%5% [lower-alpha 64]
853 (RV)± 3.0%38%55%6% [lower-alpha 65]
Basswood Research (R) [174] [upper-alpha 4] August 29–31, 2020800 (LV)± 3.5%48%48%4% [lower-alpha 37]
Morning Consult [154] August 16–25, 2020~1,000 (LV)± 3%35%53%13% [lower-alpha 55]
Redfield and Wilton Strategies [175] August 16–18, 2020856 (LV)± 3.4%34%53%12% [lower-alpha 66]
Morning Consult [154] August 6–15, 2020~1,000 (LV)± 3%43%46%11% [lower-alpha 63]
Emerson College [176] August 8–10, 2020661 (LV)± 3.8%41%52%7% [lower-alpha 36]
Change Research/CNBC [177] August 7–9, 2020428 (LV)± 4.6%43%49%8% [lower-alpha 67]
Morning Consult [154] July 27 – August 5, 2020~1,000 (LV)± 3%38%49%13% [lower-alpha 68]
OH Predictive Insights [178] August 3–4, 2020603 (LV)± 4.0%43%48%9% [lower-alpha 69]
OnMessage Inc. (R) [179] [upper-alpha 9] August 2–4, 2020400 (LV)± 4.9%48%48%4% [lower-alpha 37]
Data for Progress [180] July 24 – August 2, 20201,215 (LV)± 3.2%40%50%10% [lower-alpha 70]
Change Research/CNBC [181] July 24–26, 2020365 (LV)± 4.8%45%47%8%
Morning Consult [182] July 17–26, 2020908 (LV)± 3.0%36% [lower-alpha 43] 52%13%
CNN/SSRS [183] July 18–24, 2020873 (RV)± 3.8%43%50%7% [lower-alpha 71]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [184] July 19–23, 2020858 (LV)± 3.2%35%53%13% [lower-alpha 72]
Morning Consult [154] July 14–23, 2020~1,000 (LV)± 3%39%49%12% [lower-alpha 73]
Public Policy Polling [185] July 21–22, 2020816 (V)± 3.2%42%51%7% [lower-alpha 36]
NBC News/Marist [186] July 14–22, 2020826 (RV)± 4.1%41%53%6% [lower-alpha 74]
Spry Strategies (R) [187] [upper-alpha 10] July 11–16, 2020700 (LV)± 3.7%41%48%11% [lower-alpha 75]
Change Research/CNBC [188] July 10–12, 2020345 (LV)± 4.6%45%52%3% [lower-alpha 76]
CBS News/YouGov [189] July 7–10, 20201,087 (LV)± 3.8%42%46%12% [lower-alpha 77]
OH Predictive Insights [190] July 6–7, 2020600 (LV)± 4.0%43%52%6% [lower-alpha 78]
Data Orbital [191] June 27–29, 2020600 (LV)± 4.0%43%50%7% [lower-alpha 79]
Gravis Marketing (R) [192] [upper-alpha 11] June 27, 2020527 (LV)± 4.3%46%42%12% [lower-alpha 80]
Change Research/CNBC [193] June 26–28, 2020311 (LV) [lower-alpha 22] ± 5.8%44%53%3% [lower-alpha 81]
Global Strategy Group (D) [194] June 19–24, 2020800 (LV)± 3.5%42%49%9%
Change Research (D) [195] [upper-alpha 12] June 20–23, 2020946 (LV)± 3.2%42%50%8%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [196] June 14–17, 2020865 (LV)± 3.3%34%49%17% [lower-alpha 82]
NYT Upshot/Siena College [197] June 8–16, 2020650 (RV)± 4.3%38%47%16% [lower-alpha 83]
Civiqs/Daily Kos [198] June 13–15, 20201,368 (RV)± 2.9%42%51%7% [lower-alpha 84]
FOX News [199] May 30 – June 2, 20201,002 (RV)± 3.9%37%50%13% [lower-alpha 85]
HighGround Public Affairs [200] May 18–22, 2020400 (LV)± 4.9%41%51%8% [lower-alpha 86]
OH Predictive Insights [201] May 9–11, 2020600 (LV)± 4.0%38%51%10% [lower-alpha 15]
OH Predictive Insights [202] April 7–8, 2020600 (LV)± 4.0%42%51%8% [lower-alpha 87]
NBC News/Marist [203] March 10–15, 20202,523 (RV)± 2.7%45%48%7%
Monmouth University [204] March 11–14, 2020847 (RV)± 3.4%44%50%6%
Univision/Arizona State University [205] March 6–11, 20201,036 (RV)± 3.0%36%48%16%
OH Predictive Insights [206] March 3–4, 2020600 (LV)± 4.0%42%49%9% [lower-alpha 69]
Public Policy Polling [207] March 2–3, 2020666 (V)± 3.8%42%47%12%
HighGround Public Affairs [208] February 7–9, 2020400 (LV)± 4.9%39%46%15%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R) [209] [upper-alpha 7] January 22–24, 20201,000 (LV)± 3.1%47%45%8%
Public Policy Polling [210] January 2–4, 2020760 (V)± 3.6%42%46%12%
OH Predictive Insights [211] December 3–4, 2019628 (LV)± 3.9%44%47%9% [lower-alpha 88]
Emerson College [212] October 25–28, 2019904 (RV)± 3.2%45%46%9%
Change Research (D) [213] September 27–28, 2019856 (RV)± 3.3%45%47%8%
Bendixen & Amandi International [214] September 9–12, 2019520 (RV)± 4.3%42%42%16%
OH Predictive Insights [215] August 13–14, 2019600 (LV)± 4.0%41%46%13% [lower-alpha 89]
Fabrizio Ward/AARP [216] July 29–31, 2019600 (LV)± 4.0%45%44%11% [lower-alpha 90]
OH Predictive Insights [217] May 1–2, 2019600 (LV)± 4.0%45%44%11% [lower-alpha 91]
OH Predictive Insights [218] February 12–13, 2019600 (LV)± 4.0%46%44%10% [lower-alpha 15]
Hypothetical polling

with Daniel McCarthy and Mark Kelly

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 2] 		Margin
of error		Daniel
McCarthy (R)		Mark
Kelly (D)		Other /
Undecided
Change Research [219] [upper-alpha 12] June 20–23, 2020946 (LV)± 3.2%44%50%6%

with Ruben Gallego

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 2] 		Margin
of error		Martha
McSally (R)		Ruben
Gallego (D)		Other /
Undecided
OH Predictive Insights [218] February 12–13, 2019600 (LV)± 4.0%49%41%10% [lower-alpha 15]

on whether McSally deserves to be re-elected

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 2] 		Margin
of error		YesNoOther /
Undecided
Fabrizio Ward/AARP [216] July 29–31, 2019600 (LV)± 4.0%39%45%16% [lower-alpha 92]
Public Policy Polling [220] January 24–25, 2019682 (V)–40%54%6%

with generic Republican and generic Democrat

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 2] 		Margin
of error		Generic
Republican		Generic
Democrat		Other /
Undecided
OH Predictive Insights [140] October 4–8, 2020608 (LV)± 4.0%45%45%10% [lower-alpha 93]
Targoz Market Research/PollSmart [221] September 23 – October 2, 20201,045 (LV)± 3.0%44%42%14% [lower-alpha 94]
Data For Progress [155] [upper-alpha 13] September 15–22, 2020481 (LV)± 4.4%45%42%15% [lower-alpha 47]
Siena College/NYT Upshot [165] September 10–15, 2020653 (LV)± 4.1%44%50%6% [lower-alpha 95]
Emerson College [176] August 8–10, 2020661 (LV)± 3.8%41%46%13% [lower-alpha 96]
OnMessage Inc. (R) [179] [upper-alpha 9] August 2–4, 2020400 (LV)± 4.9%43%43%14% [lower-alpha 97]
Climate Nexus [222] Feb 11–15, 2020539 (RV)± 4.3%44%44%12% [lower-alpha 98]
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R) [209] [upper-alpha 7] Jan 22–24, 20201,000 (LV)± 3.1%49%45%6% [lower-alpha 99]
OH Predictive Insights [211] December 3–4, 2019628 (LV)± 3.9%44%44%11% [lower-alpha 100]
Fabrizio Ward/AARP [216] July 29–31, 2019600 (LV)± 4.0%42%43%14% [lower-alpha 101]
OH Predictive Insights [223] February 12–13, 2019600 (LV)± 4.0%44%39%17% [lower-alpha 102]

Results

2020 United States Senate Special election in Arizona [224]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Mark Kelly 1,716,467 51.16% +10.41%
Republican Martha McSally (incumbent)1,637,66148.81%−4.90%
Write-in 1,1690.03%-0.03%
Total votes3,355,297 100.0%
Democratic gain from Republican
By county
County Mark Kelly
Democratic 		Martha McSally
Republican 		Write-in MarginTotal
votes
#%#%#%#%
Apache 24,05068.4711,05231.47220.0612,99837.0135,124
Cochise 24,84341.3535,21458.61290.05-10,371-17.2660,086
Coconino 45,56162.5427,25537.41290.0418,30625.1372,845
Gila 9,64835.0217,88964.94110.04-8,241-29.9127,548
Graham 4,50630.4210,30369.5540.03-5,797-39.1314,813
Greenlee 1,40338.652,22561.2920.06-822-22.663,630
La Paz 2,49234.004,83565.9720.03-2,343-31.977,329
Maricopa 1,064,39651.94984,20348.036980.0380,1933.912,049,297
Mohave 27,41426.6675,35973.29490.05-47,945-46.63102,822
Navajo 24,39647.4926,95252.47210.04-2,556-4.9851,369
Pima 309,14259.84207,31740.131520.03101,82519.71516,611
Pinal 79,11443.18104,04856.78760.04-24,934-13.61183,238
Santa Cruz 13,68970.655,68529.3420.018,00441.3119,376
Yavapai 51,85236.4990,18063.47570.04-38,328-26.97142,089
Yuma 33,96149.1335,14450.84150.02-1,183-1.7169,120
Totals1,716,46751.161,637,66148.811,1890.0378,8262.353,355,317

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic [225]

Results by congressional districts

Kelly won 5 of the 9 congressional districts. [226]

DistrictMcSallyKellyRepresentative
1st 48%52% Tom O'Halleran
2nd 44%56% Ann Kirkpatrick
3rd 35%65% Raúl Grijalva
4th 67%33% Paul Gosar
5th 56%44% Andy Biggs
6th 52%48% David Schweikert
7th 24%76% Ruben Gallego
8th 57%43% Debbie Lesko
9th 38%62% Greg Stanton

See also

Notes

  1. ↑ In December 2018, McSally was appointed by Governor Doug Ducey to fill the vacancy caused by the death of Senator John McCain and the resignation of Senator Jon Kyl.
  2. 1 2 3 4 5 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ↑ "Some other candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 1%
  4. ↑ "Refused" and Undecided with 1%; Did not vote with 0%
  5. ↑ "Other" and Undecided with 1%
  6. ↑ "Other candidate or write-in" with 0%
  7. ↑ "Someone else" with 2%
  8. ↑ "Refused" with 4%; "Other" with 1%; Undecided with 2%
  9. ↑ "Someone else" and would not vote with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 6%
  10. ↑ "Some other" with 3.5%; "Other" with 7.5%; Undecided with 2%
  11. ↑ "None of these" and Undecided with 2%; "Other" with 1%
  12. ↑ "Some other candidate" with 4%; Undecided with 5%
  13. 1 2 Undecided with 6%
  14. ↑ "Some other candidate" with 2%; would not vote with 0%; Undecided with 3%
  15. 1 2 3 4 Undecided with 10%
  16. ↑ "Refused" with 1%; Undecided with 3%
  17. ↑ "Someone else" and would not vote with 2%; Undecided with 6%
  18. ↑ Undecided with 2%
  19. ↑ "Other" and "Refused" with 0%; Undecided with 3%
  20. ↑ "Some other candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 2%
  21. ↑ "Some other candidate" and Undecided with 5%
  22. 1 2 3 Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  23. ↑ Standard VI response
  24. 1 2 3 "Some other candidate" with 6%; Undecided with 9%
  25. ↑ Results generated with high Democratic turnout model
  26. ↑ Results generated with high Republican turnout model
  27. ↑ "Refused" with 3%; "Other" with 2%; Undecided with 5%
  28. ↑ "Someone else" with 2%; Undecided with 5%
  29. ↑ "Some other candidate" and Undecided with 4%; would not vote with 0%
  30. 1 2 "No one" with 1%; "Other" with 0%; Undecided with 4%
  31. 1 2 With a likely voter turnout model featuring higher turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
  32. 1 2 With a likely voter turnout model featuring lower turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
  33. ↑ "Other" with 3%; Undecided with 4%
  34. ↑ "Refused" with 0%; Undecided with 5%
  35. ↑ "Some other candidate" with 4%; would not vote with 0%; "Undecided/Prefer not to answer" with 4%
  36. 1 2 3 4 Undecided with 7%
  37. 1 2 3 Undecided with 4%
  38. ↑ "Refused" with 2%; "Other" with 1%; Undecided with 4%
  39. ↑ "Some other candidate" with 1%; "Undecided/Refused" with 6%
  40. ↑ Would not vote and Undecided with 3%
  41. ↑ Would not vote with 1%; "Someone else" with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 10%
  42. 1 2 Undecided with 5%
  43. 1 2 Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  44. ↑ "Someone else" with 4%; Undecided with 6%
  45. ↑ "Other" and "Refused" with 2%; Undecided with 7%
  46. ↑ "Someone else" and Undecided with 5%
  47. 1 2 Undecided with 15%
  48. ↑ Would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 5%
  49. ↑ "Neither" with 2%; would not vote with 0%; "other" with no voters; Undecided with 1%
  50. 1 2 Overlapping sample with the previous and subsequent Morning Consult polls, but more information available regarding sample size
  51. ↑ "Not sure/prefer not to answer" with 4%; "Some other candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 1%
  52. ↑ "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 2%; Undecided with 11%
  53. 1 2 "Other" with 0%; Undecided with 4%
  54. ↑ Would not vote with 1%; "Someone else" with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 7%
  55. 1 2 "Someone else" with 4%; Undecided with 9%
  56. ↑ "Neither/Another Party" with 4%; "Undecided/Don't know/Refused" with 16%
  57. ↑ Undecided with 9%
  58. ↑ "Someone else" with 3%; Undecided with 6%
  59. ↑ "Refused" with 1%; Undecided with 6%
  60. ↑ "Someone else" with 0%; Undecided with 7%
  61. ↑ Would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 3%
  62. ↑ "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 1%; Undecided with 7%
  63. 1 2 "Someone else" with 4%; Undecided with 7%
  64. ↑ "Other" and would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 3%
  65. ↑ "Other" and would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 4%
  66. ↑ "Third party/write-in" with 1%; Undecided with 11%
  67. ↑ Would not vote with 2%; Undecided with 6%
  68. ↑ "Someone else" with 5%; Undecided with 8%
  69. 1 2 "Refused" with 1%; Undecided with 8%
  70. ↑ "No one" with 10%
  71. ↑ "None of the above/neither" with 3%; "other" with 0%; Undecided with 4%
  72. ↑ "Third party/write-in" with 3%; Undecided with 10%
  73. ↑ "Someone else" with 4%; Undecided with 8%
  74. ↑ "Other" with 1%; Undecided with 5%
  75. ↑ "Another candidate" with 6%; Undecided with 5%
  76. ↑ Undecided with 2%; would not vote with 1%
  77. ↑ Undecided with 9%; "Someone else" with 3%; would not vote with 0%
  78. ↑ Undecided with 5%; "Refused" with 1%
  79. ↑ Undecided with 5.2%; "Other" with 1.8%; "refused" with 0.4%
  80. ↑ Undecided with 12%
  81. ↑ Undecided with 3%; "Would not vote" with 0%
  82. ↑ Undecided with 14%; "Third party/write-in" with 3%
  83. ↑ Undecided with 14%; "Another candidate" and would not vote with 1%
  84. ↑ "Someone else" with 4%; unsure with 3%
  85. ↑ Undecided with 8%; "Other" with 3%; would not vote with 2%
  86. ↑ "Undecided/refused" with 5.8%; "some other candidate" with 1.8%
  87. ↑ "Refused" with 1%; Undecided with 7%
  88. ↑ "Refused" with 0%; Undecided with 9%
  89. ↑ "Refused" with 0%; Undecided with 13%
  90. ↑ Undecided with 9%; "Would not vote/would not vote for US Senate" with 2%
  91. ↑ "Refused" with 1%; Undecided with 10%
  92. ↑ Undecided with 14%, refused with 2%
  93. ↑ "Other" with 6%; "Refused" with 0%; Undecided with 4%
  94. ↑ "Another candidate" with 5%; Undecided with 9%
  95. ↑ "Undecided/Refused" with 6%
  96. ↑ Undecided with 13%
  97. ↑ Undecided with 14%
  98. ↑ "Neither candidate or other candidate" with 12%
  99. ↑ "Undecided/Don't know/Refused" with 6%
  100. ↑ "Other" with 5%; "Refused" with 0%; Undecided with 6%
  101. ↑ "Undecided/Don't know/Refused" with 14%
  102. ↑ "Other" with 10%; "Refused" with 0%; Undecided with 7%

Partisan clients

  1. ↑ The Justice Collaborative Project is an affiliate of the Tides Centre, a liberal fiscal sponsorship provider
  2. 1 2 The American Greatness PAC, this poll's sponsor, is pro-Trump.
  3. ↑ This poll's sponsor, Democrats for Education Reform, exclusively supports Democratic candidates.
  4. 1 2 Poll sponsored by the American Action Network, a conservative advocacy group.
  5. ↑ Poll sponsored by the Defend Students Action Fund.
  6. ↑ Poll sponsored by the Human Rights Campaign which has endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period.
  7. 1 2 3 Poll sponsored by the McSally campaign
  8. ↑ Poll sponsored by AARP.
  9. 1 2 Heritage Action is the sister organization of the Heritage Foundation, which exclusively endorses Republican candidates
  10. ↑ This poll's sponsor is the American Principles Project, a 501 that supports the Republican Party.
  11. ↑ Polling was sponsored by OANN.
  12. 1 2 This poll's sponsor, 314 Action, had endorsed Kelly prior to the sampling period
  13. ↑ Poll sponsored by the Defend Students Action Fund.

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  104. ↑ "U.S. Senate – Education Votes". educationvotes.nea.org.
  105. ↑ "NRDC Action Fund Endorses 14 for House, Senate". nrdcactionfund.org. September 3, 2020.
  106. ↑ "Arizona – Official UAW Endorsements". uawendorsements.org. United Automobile Workers.
  107. ↑ "2020 Star Opinion: Mark Kelly for U.S. Senate". Arizona Daily Star. October 7, 2020.
  108. ↑ 270 to Win
  109. ↑ Real Clear Politics
  110. ↑ Ipsos/Reuters
  111. ↑ Change Research/CNBC
  112. ↑ NBC News/Marist
  113. ↑ Swayable Archived November 13, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
  114. ↑ Data for Progress
  115. ↑ Emerson College
  116. 1 2 3 Morning Consult
  117. ↑ Data Orbital Archived November 21, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
  118. ↑ Siena College/NYT Upshot
  119. ↑ Grand Canyon Battleground Poll
  120. ↑ CNN/SSRS Archived November 22, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
  121. ↑ Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports
  122. ↑ Gravis Marketing
  123. ↑ Ipsos/Reutuers
  124. ↑ Swayable
  125. ↑ Justice Collaborative Project (D) Archived November 30, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
  126. ↑ OH Predictive Insights
  127. ↑ Univision/University of Houston/Latino
    Decisions/North Star Opinion Research
  128. ↑ Patinkin Research Strategies (D)
  129. ↑ Y2 Analytics
  130. ↑ Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. (R)
  131. ↑ Ipsos/Reuters
  132. ↑ Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports
  133. ↑ Change Research/CNBC
  134. ↑ RMG Research Archived October 22, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
  135. ↑ Data Orbital Archived October 31, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
  136. ↑ YouGov/CBS
  137. ↑ Ipsos/Reuters
  138. ↑ Monmouth University
  139. ↑ Trafalgar Group
  140. 1 2 OH Predictive Insights
  141. ↑ Ipsos/Reuters
  142. ↑ Latino Decisions (D)
  143. ↑ Basswood Research (R)
  144. ↑ Data Orbital Archived October 21, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
  145. ↑ HighGround Inc.
  146. ↑ Change Research/CNBC
  147. ↑ Siena College/NYT Upshot
  148. 1 2 Patinkin Research Strategies/Arizona Research Consortium (D)
  149. ↑ Targoz Market Research
  150. ↑ Morning Consult
  151. ↑ Suffolk University
  152. ↑ Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. (R)
  153. ↑ Data for Progress (D)
  154. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Morning Consult
  155. 1 2 Data For Progress
  156. ↑ Change Research/CNBC
  157. ↑ ABC News/Washington Post
  158. ↑ Morning Consult
  159. ↑ Hart Research Associates (D) [ permanent dead link ]
  160. ↑ Ipsos/Reuters
  161. ↑ Morning Consult
  162. ↑ Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)
  163. ↑ Redfield & Wilton Strategies
  164. ↑ Monmouth University
  165. 1 2 Siena College/NYT Upshot
  166. ↑ Kaiser Family Foundation/Cook Political Report
  167. ↑ Gravis Marketing
  168. ↑ YouGov/CBS
  169. ↑ OH Predictive Insights
  170. ↑ Benenson Strategy Group/GS Strategy Group
  171. ↑ Change Research/CNBC
  172. ↑ Redfield & Wilton Strategies
  173. ↑ FOX News
  174. ↑ Basswood Research (R)
  175. ↑ Redfield and Wilton Strategies
  176. 1 2 Emerson College
  177. ↑ Change Research/CNBC
  178. ↑ OH Predictive Insights
  179. 1 2 OnMessage Inc. (R)
  180. ↑ Data for Progress
  181. ↑ Change Research/CNBC
  182. ↑ Morning Consult
  183. ↑ CNN/SSRS
  184. ↑ Redfield & Wilton Strategies
  185. ↑ Public Policy Polling
  186. ↑ NBC News/Marist
  187. ↑ Spry Strategies (R)
  188. ↑ Change Research/CNBC
  189. ↑ CBS News/YouGov
  190. ↑ OH Predictive Insights
  191. ↑ Data Orbital
  192. ↑ Gravis Marketing (R)
  193. ↑ Change Research/CNBC
  194. ↑ Global Strategy Group (D)
  195. ↑ Change Research (D)
  196. ↑ Redfield & Wilton Strategies
  197. ↑ NYT Upshot/Siena College
  198. ↑ Civiqs/Daily Kos
  199. ↑ FOX News
  200. ↑ HighGround Public Affairs Archived June 13, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
  201. ↑ OH Predictive Insights
  202. ↑ OH Predictive Insights
  203. ↑ NBC News/Marist
  204. ↑ Monmouth University
  205. ↑ Univision/Arizona State University
  206. ↑ OH Predictive Insights Archived September 16, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
  207. ↑ Public Policy Polling
  208. ↑ HighGround Public Affairs Archived February 19, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
  209. 1 2 Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)
  210. ↑ Public Policy Polling
  211. 1 2 OH Predictive Insights
  212. ↑ Emerson College
  213. ↑ Change Research (D)
  214. ↑ Bendixen & Amandi International
  215. ↑ OH Predictive Insights
  216. 1 2 3 Fabrizio Ward/AARP
  217. ↑ OH Predictive Insights Archived May 13, 2019, at the Wayback Machine
  218. 1 2 OH Predictive Insights
  219. ↑ Change Research
  220. ↑ Public Policy Polling
  221. ↑ Targoz Market Research/PollSmart
  222. ↑ Climate Nexus
  223. ↑ OH Predictive Insights Archived September 20, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
  224. ↑ "State of Arizona – Official Canvass – 2020 General Election" (PDF). Arizona Secretary of State. Archived from the original (PDF) on December 31, 2020. Retrieved November 30, 2020.
  225. ↑ "Arizona U.S. Senate Special Election Results". The New York Times . November 3, 2020. ISSN   0362-4331 . Retrieved October 3, 2021.
  226. ↑ "DRA 2020". Daves Redistricting. Retrieved August 18, 2024.

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