2020 United States Senate election in Massachusetts

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2020 United States Senate election in Massachusetts
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Nominee Ed Markey Kevin O'Connor
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote2,357,8091,177,765
Percentage66.15%33.05%
2020 United States Senate election in Massachusetts results map by county.svg
2020 United States Senate election in Massachusetts results map by municipality.svg
MA Senate 2020.svg
Markey::      40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
O'Connor:      40–50%     50–60%     60–70%
Tie:      40–50%
U.S. senator before election

Ed Markey
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Ed Markey
Democratic

The 2020 United States Senate election in Massachusetts was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as elections to the United States Senate in other states, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. On September 1, incumbent senator Ed Markey defeated U.S. Representative Joe Kennedy III in a competitive primary for the Democratic nomination, and Kevin O'Connor defeated Shiva Ayyadurai for the Republican nomination. Markey went on to win the general election with 66.2% of the vote, and was thus re-elected to a second full term in a landslide.

Contents

Democratic primary

The state primary election took place on September 1, 2020. [1] Incumbent senator Ed Markey was challenged by U.S. Representative Joe Kennedy III, a member of the Kennedy family. Kennedy and Markey had similar political positions, both being considered reliably liberal Democrats, though Markey was considered more left-wing on the DW-Nominate scale. [2] An elected senator had not been defeated in a primary since Richard Lugar in 2012, and an elected Democrat had not been defeated since Joe Lieberman in 2006. [3]

In August 2019, it was reported that Kennedy was considering a primary challenge to Markey. [4] He announced that he would be launching a campaign on September 18. [5] According to Vox , one of the main reasons for Kennedy's decision to challenge Markey, rather than waiting for a Senate seat to open up, was that Markey was perceived to be an easier opponent than the raft of candidates that would run without an incumbent. [6] Polling of the potential match-up showed Markey trailing Kennedy by as much as 14 points, leading to speculation that he would retire rather than face a humiliating primary defeat, but he resolved to run for re-election. [7]

Kennedy faced skepticism about his reasons for running to replace Markey, and journalists observed that his campaign had difficulty articulating a clear rationale. [8] Eventually, Kennedy's campaign pitch largely focused around a message that he would "show up" for disadvantaged residents of Massachusetts, something he claimed Markey had not been doing. [9] This strategy was heavily inspired by Ayanna Pressley's successful campaign for the U.S. House the previous cycle, and was aimed at casting Kennedy as an insurgent outsider running against the establishment. [9]

Facing a severe polling deficit, Markey undertook to politically reinvent himself; his relatively low profile in Massachusetts gave him the opportunity to essentially define himself for the first time to many voters. [10] The main focus of Markey's re-election strategy was to promote himself as a left-wing iconoclast who clashed with the Democratic Party apparatus; to this extent a campaign ad from 1976 wherein Markey promoted his clashes with Massachusetts political bosses was widely used by his campaign. [10] Markey also frequently promoted an endorsement he received from New York Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a favorite of the Democratic Party's left; Ocasio-Cortez's endorsement encouraged left-wing activist organizations to also support Markey, and resulted in the incumbent developing a large following on the internet. [10]

Support from within the Democratic Party was divided. Markey received support from the DSCC, Senate minority leader Chuck Schumer, and DSCC chair Catherine Cortez Masto. He was also endorsed by key figures in the party's progressive wing, such as Ocasio-Cortez, fellow Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren, and the youth-led Sunrise Movement. [11] Kennedy received various endorsements from the House leadership, including Speaker Nancy Pelosi (which was noteworthy because speakers rarely endorse candidates in competitive primaries, especially challengers to incumbents), [12] [13] House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, [14] House Democratic Caucus chair Hakeem Jeffries, [15] House Intelligence Committee chair Adam Schiff, [16] and House Democratic Senior Chief Deputy Whip John Lewis. [17]

As the campaign progressed, Markey began to explicitly criticise the Kennedy family, deeming them as emblematic of privilege, and frequently contrasting the Kennedy Compound with his own upbringing in Malden. [18] Kennedy attacked Markey for these actions, accusing him of "weaponizing" the history of the Kennedy family. [19] As the race entered its final days the contest began to assume an ideological meaning, with New York writer Gabriel Debendetti writing that the contest was viewed as a "fight for the soul of the national Democratic party", with both candidates claiming that a victory for them would be an affirmation of the strength of the left-wing of the Democrats. [20]

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Joe Kennedy III
U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Statewide politicians
State legislators
Local politicians
Individuals
Labor unions
Newspapers
Ed Markey
Executive officials
  • Al Gore, 45th vice president of the United States (1993–2001), U.S. Senator from Tennessee (1985–1993) [72]
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Statewide politicians
State officials
Local officials
Individuals
Unions
Organizations
Newspapers

Polling

Joe Kennedy III vs. Ed Markey
Source of poll aggregationDates administeredDate updatedJoe
Kennedy III		Ed
Markey		Undecided [lower-alpha 1] Margin
RealClearPolitics July 31 – August 27, 2020August 27, 202040.8%52.0%7.2%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 2] 		Margin
of error		Ed
Markey		Maura
Healey		Shannon
Liss-Riordan		Joe
Kennedy III		Seth
Moulton		Steve
Pemberton		Allen
Waters		OtherUndecided
Emerson College/WHDH August 25–27, 2020453 (LV)± 4.6%56%––44%–––––
Data for Progress August 24–25, 2020731 (LV)± 4%50%––43%––––7%
Suffolk University August 23–25, 2020500 (LV)–51%––41%–––0% [lower-alpha 3] 8%
UMass Lowell August 13–21, 2020800 (LV)± 4.1%52%––40%–––2% [lower-alpha 4] 6%
SurveyUSA/Priorities for Progress August 12–16, 2020558 (LV)± 4.2%44%––42%––––15%
UMassAmherst/WCVB July 31 – August 7, 2020362 (LV)± 7.0%51%––36%–––1%12%
JMC Analytics and Polling July 29–30, 2020500 (LV)± 4.4%44%––41%––––16%
Emerson College May 5–6, 2020620 (LV)± 3.9%42%––58%–––––
University of Massachusetts Lowell April 27 – May 1, 2020531 (LV)± 7.8%42%––44%–––4% [lower-alpha 5] 10%
Suffolk University/Boston Globe/WBZ February 26–28, 2020465 (LV)± 4.4%36%––42%–––1% [lower-alpha 6] 21%
UMass Amherst/WCVB February 18–24, 2020400 (LV)± 5.9%43%––40%–––4%13%
UMass Lowell/YouGov February 12–19, 2020450 (LV)± 6.1%34%––35%––––23%
Jan 17, 2020Liss-Riordan withdraws from the race
Dec 16, 2019Waters withdraws from the race
Oct 14, 2019Pemberton withdraws from the race
Sep 21, 2019Kennedy announces his candidacy
Suffolk University/Boston Globe September 3–5, 2019500 (LV)± 4.4%28%––42%––––29%
26%–<1%35%–1%0%–36%
Change Research August 23–25, 2019808 (RV)± 3.5%25%–5%42%–7%–––
Jul 23, 2019Pemberton announces his candidacy
Suffolk University June 5–9, 2019370 (LV)± 5.1%44%–5%––5%––45%
May 20, 2019Liss-Riordan announces her candidacy [150]
May 19, 2019Healey announces that she will not run
Apr 1, 2019Waters announces his candidacy [151]
Dec 14, 2018Moulton announces that he will not run [152]
YouGov/UMass Amherst November 7–14, 2018635 (RV)–26%27%––––––35%
636 (RV)–29%–––25%–––38%
Oct 5, 2018Markey announces his candidacy
Suffolk University September 13–17, 2018433 (LV)–24%–––18%–––45%

Debates

Results

Results by municipality 2020 Senate Democratic primary in Massachusetts by municipality.svg
Results by municipality

Markey defeated his challenger, Joe Kennedy III. Markey won by running up big margins in Boston and its suburbs, and did well in western Massachusetts, especially in college towns. Kennedy did well in the Cape Cod region, and won many Southern municipalities, especially his native 4th district. [153] Despite Kennedy's strength in Southern Massachusetts, Markey defeated Kennedy in portions of the 4th district near Boston, carrying Kennedy's hometown of Newton by 28.2% and neighboring Brookline by 39%. Markey's margin of victory of 10.8% was attributed to his unexpected strength among progressives and younger voters. [154] [21] Kennedy's loss marked the first time a member of the Kennedy family had lost an election in Massachusetts. [155] [156]

Democratic primary results [157]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Ed Markey (incumbent) 782,694 55.35%
Democratic Joe Kennedy III 629,35944.51%
Democratic Write-ins1,9350.14%
Total votes1,413,988 100.00%

Republican primary

The state primary election took place on September 1, 2020. [1]

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Results

Results by municipality 2020 Senate Republican primary in Massachusetts by municipality.svg
Results by municipality
Republican primary results [157]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Kevin O'Connor 158,590 59.71%
Republican Shiva Ayyadurai 104,78239.45%
Republican Write-ins2,2450.84%
Total votes265,617 100.00%

Other candidates

Libertarian Party

Failed to qualify

Results

Libertarian primary results [157]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Libertarian Other Write-ins3,39099.21%
Libertarian Vermin Supreme (write-in)270.79%
Total votes3,417 100.00%

Green Party

Withdrawn

  • Andre "Maha Visnu" Gray, Co-Chair of the Massachusetts Green-Rainbow Party, teacher, and businessman [159] [167]

Independents

Write-in candidate

  • Shiva Ayyadurai (switched to this candidacy after losing Republican primary) [162]

Withdrawn

General election

The general election took place on November 3, 2020. [1]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [170] Safe DOctober 29, 2020
Inside Elections [171] Safe DOctober 28, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball [172] Safe DNovember 2, 2020
Daily Kos [173] Safe DOctober 30, 2020
Politico [174] Safe DNovember 2, 2020
RCP [175] Safe DOctober 23, 2020
DDHQ [176] Safe DNovember 3, 2020
538 [177] Safe DNovember 2, 2020
Economist [178] Safe DNovember 2, 2020

Endorsements

Ed Markey (D)
Vice Presidents
  • Al Gore, 45th vice president of the United States (1993–2001), U.S. Senator from Tennessee (1985–1993) [72]
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
  • Bill Keating, U.S. representative (MA-09) (2013–present) (2011–2013 in 10th district) [75]
  • Joe Kennedy III, U.S. representative (MA-04) (2013–2021) [179]
  • Ro Khanna, U.S. representative (CA-17) (2017–present) [76]
  • Richard Neal, U.S. representative (MA-01) (2013–present) (1989–2013 in 2nd district) [75]
  • Stephen F. Lynch, U.S. representative (MA-08) (2013–present) (2001–2013 in 9th district) [75]
  • Carolyn Maloney, U.S. representative (NY-12) (2013–present) (1993–2013 in 14th district) and Chair of the House Oversight Committee (2019–present) [77]
  • Jim McGovern, U.S. representative (MA-02) (2013–present) (1997–2013 in 3rd district) and Chair of the House Rules Committee (2019–present) [75]
  • Jerry Nadler, U.S. representative (NY-10) (2013–present) (1992–1993 in 17th district) (1993–2013 in 8th district) and Chair of the House Judiciary Committee (2019–present) [77]
  • Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, U.S. representative (NY-14) (2019–present) [78]
  • Lori Trahan, U.S. representative (MA-03) (2019–present) [75]
Statewide politicians
State officials
Local officials
Individuals
Unions
Organizations
Newspapers
Kevin O’Connor (R)
Statewide politicians

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 2] 		Margin
of error		Ed
Markey (D)		Kevin
O'Connor (R)		OtherUndecided
MassInc October 23–30, 2020929 (LV)–60%29%6% [lower-alpha 7] 5%
YouGov/UMass Amherst October 14–21, 2020713 (LV)–65%26%2% [lower-alpha 8] 7%
Remington Research (R) [upper-alpha 1] September 16–17, 2020907 (LV)± 3.3%50%40%–10%
Hypothetical polling
with Charlie Baker
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 2] 		Margin
of error		Ed
Markey (D)		Charlie
Baker (R)		Undecided
Change Research August 23–25, 20191,008 (RV)± 3.1%44%45%–
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 2] 		Margin
of error		Shannon
Liss-Riordan (D)		Charlie
Baker (R)		Undecided
Change Research August 23–25, 20191,008 (RV)± 3.1%35%54%–
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 2] 		Margin
of error		Joe
Kennedy III (D)		Charlie
Baker (R)		Undecided
Change Research August 23–25, 20191,008 (RV)± 3.1%49%41%–
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 2] 		Margin
of error		Steve
Pemberton (D)		Charlie
Baker (R)		Undecided
Change Research August 23–25, 20191,008 (RV)± 3.1%31%56%–

Results

United States Senate election in Massachusetts, 2020 [195]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Ed Markey (incumbent) 2,357,809 66.15% +4.28%
Republican Kevin O'Connor1,177,76533.05%-4.93%
Independent Shiva Ayyadurai (write-in)21,1340.59%N/A
Write-in 7,4280.21%+0.06%
Total votes3,564,136 100.0%
Democratic hold
By county
County [196] Ed Markey
Democratic 		Kevin O'Connor
Republican 		Shiva Ayyadurai
Independent 		Write-in MarginTotal
votes
#%#%#%#%#%
Barnstable 89,97760.5057,96538.976560.441340.0932,01221.52148,732
Berkshire 51,26173.7417,69725.464880.70660.0933,56448.2869,512
Bristol 155,92757.35113,75041.841,4180.528010.2942,17715.51271,896
Dukes 9,76777.322,79922.16600.4760.056,96855.1612,632
Essex 267,67864.58143,44734.612,4510.599090.22124,23129.97414,485
Franklin 29,90071.4911,24126.885701.361140.2718,65944.6141,825
Hampden 123,86758.3085,79040.382,2051.046000.2838,07717.92212,462
Hampshire 63,15172.9422,57726.086970.801550.1840,57446.8686,580
Middlesex 611,48571.97232,73927.393,9160.461,4370.17378,74644.58849,577
Nantucket 5,13271.342,03428.2700.00280.393,09843.067,194
Norfolk 265,21066.19133,04733.211,3860.351,0280.26132,16332.98400,671
Plymouth 170,53257.47124,08441.821,6840.574250.1446,44815.65296,725
Suffolk 266,11781.4758,98218.066120.199490.29207,13563.41326,660
Worcester 247,80558.28171,61340.364,9911.177760.1876,19217.92425,185
Totals2,357,80966.151,177,76533.0421,1340.597,4280.211,180,04433.113,564,136

Markey won all fourteen of Massachusetts' counties for the second election in a row.

See also

Notes

General
  1. ↑ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ↑ "Refused" with 0%
  4. ↑ "Another candidate" with 2%
  5. ↑ "Another candidate" with 4%
  6. ↑ "Refused" with 1%
  7. ↑ "Some other candidate" with 3%; "Refused" with 2%; would not vote with 1%
  8. ↑ "Other" with 2%; would not vote with 0%
Partisan clients
  1. ↑ Poll conducted for the O'Connor campaign.

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References

  1. 1 2 3 "Election calendar" (PDF). www.sec.state.ma.us. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
  2. ↑ Rakich, Nathaniel (September 24, 2019). "Joe Kennedy Isn't Your Usual Upstart Primary Challenger". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved September 2, 2020.
  3. ↑ Jacobson, Louis (January 2, 2020). "Markey vs. Kennedy: Welcome to the most unusual Senate primary in decades – Sabato's Crystal Ball" . Retrieved August 30, 2020.. Arlen Specter, who was elected as a Republican, but switched parties to Democratic, was defeated in 2010 during his first Democratic primary.
  4. ↑ Martin, Jonathan (August 17, 2019). "Joseph Kennedy III Said to Be Eyeing Edward Markey's Massachusetts Senate Seat". The New York Times. Retrieved September 10, 2021.
  5. ↑ Durkee, Allison (September 18, 2019). "Joe Kennedy III is Officially Challenging Ed Markey's Senate Seat". Vanity Fair. Retrieved September 10, 2021.
  6. ↑ Zhou, Li (September 21, 2019). "Joe Kennedy is officially going after Ed Markey's Senate seat". Vox. Retrieved September 10, 2021.
  7. ↑ Murray, Stephanie (September 29, 2019). "Ed Markey "gets his Irish up"". Politico. Retrieved September 10, 2021.
  8. ↑ Damiano, Mike (May 13, 2020). "Joe Kennedy III Wants You to Know He's More Than Just a Name". Boston Magazine. Retrieved August 16, 2023.
  9. 1 2 McGrane, Victoria (September 23, 2019). "A key piece of Joe Kennedy's strategy: Appealing to people on the margins". The Boston Globe. Retrieved December 29, 2021.
  10. 1 2 3 Berman, Russell (September 9, 2020). "How Ed Markey Defeated Joe Kennedy". The Atlantic. Retrieved September 1, 2022.
  11. ↑ Foran, Clare; Krieg, Gregory (August 20, 2020). "Pelosi endorses Joe Kennedy in Massachusetts Senate primary against Ed Markey". CNN. Retrieved September 4, 2020.
  12. ↑ Cillizza, Chris (August 21, 2020). "Why, exactly, did Nancy Pelosi endorse Joe Kennedy III?". CNN. Retrieved August 29, 2020.
  13. ↑ "Pelosi endorses Kennedy over Markey in contentious primary". POLITICO. August 20, 2020. Retrieved August 29, 2020.
  14. 1 2 3 4 5 Murray, Stephanie (May 19, 2020). "Special state SENATE elections today — 'SAFER at HOME' — POT SHOPS begin curbside pickup — HOYER raising money for KENNEDY". Politico .
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  16. 1 2 Cote, Jackson (August 3, 2020). "Election 2020: Rep. Adam Schiff, Massachusetts native and chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, endorses Joe Kennedy III for Senate". Masslive .
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