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Hickenlooper: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Gardner: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% No data | |||||||||||||||||
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Elections in Colorado |
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The 2020 United States Senate election in Colorado was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Colorado, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
Under Colorado law, the filing deadline for U.S. Senate candidates was March 17, 2020, the third Tuesday in March of the election year; the primary election occurred on June 30. [1] [2] Incumbent senator Cory Gardner lost re-election to former governor John Hickenlooper. [3] Gardner was unopposed in the Republican primary, and Hickenlooper defeated former State House Speaker Andrew Romanoff in the Democratic primary. [4]
This race was one of two Republican-held U.S. Senate seats up for election in 2020 in a state President Trump lost in 2016; the other was in Maine. Many pollsters and pundits [5] [6] considered Gardner to be the most vulnerable Republican senator facing re-election in 2020 due to his narrow victory in 2014, the state's leftward shift, and Trump's unpopularity in the state. As predicted, Hickenlooper easily defeated Gardner by a 9.3-point margin. However, Gardner did manage to outperform Donald Trump in the concurrent presidential election by roughly four points. [7] This became the first election Gardner had lost in his political career as well as being the widest margin of loss for a Coloradan U.S. Senator since 1978. [8] This was the third consecutive election where this seat flipped parties, and also the second consecutive election in which the incumbent senator lost re-election to a second term for this particular seat. At the age of 68, Hickenlooper is the oldest first term senator from Colorado.
Gardner was elected to the U.S. Senate in 2014, narrowly defeating incumbent Democratic senator Mark Udall in a very successful election year for Republicans. Gardner was widely considered vulnerable in 2020 due to Colorado's recent Democratic trend and his support for Trump. [9] Polling showed that more voters had a negative view of Gardner compared to a positive one. [10] Gardner also faced a four-year grassroots campaign across the state by progressive political activists to hold him accountable for his votes, featured a cardboard cutout dubbed "Cardboard Cory". [11] The seat was expected to be highly competitive and the most likely Republican-held seat to flip Democratic. The Democratic nominee, former governor John Hickenlooper, had a consistent double-digit lead over Gardner in the polls. [12] [13]
Various minor scandals in the days leading up to the June 30 Democratic primary sparked speculation that Romanoff might win, but Hickenlooper had an advantage in name recognition, and harsh negative attacks by Romanoff reportedly led many state Democrats and voters to sour on him. [14]
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Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Cory Gardner (incumbent) | 554,806 | 100.00% | |
Total votes | 554,806 | 100.00% |
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Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 3] | Margin of error | Jena Griswold | John Hickenlooper | Mike Johnston | Andrew Romanoff | Other / Undecided | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SurveyUSA [96] | June 19–24, 2020 | 575 (LV) | ± 6.0% | – | 58% | – | 28% | 15% [lower-alpha 4] | |
Myers Research and Strategic Services [97] [upper-alpha 1] | June 16–17, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | – | 51% | – | 39% | – | |
Unspecified polling firm [98] [upper-alpha 1] | October 2019 | – (LV) [lower-alpha 5] | – | – | 68% | – | 19% | – | |
Johnston withdraws from the race | |||||||||
Public Policy Polling (D) [99] [upper-alpha 2] | August 28–29, 2019 | 509 (LV) | – | – | 60% [lower-alpha 6] | 3% | 9% | 27% [lower-alpha 7] | |
– [lower-alpha 8] | 66% | – | 17% | 17% [lower-alpha 9] | |||||
Hickenlooper announces his candidacy | |||||||||
Griswold announces that she will not run | |||||||||
Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group [100] | July 25–28, 2019 | 600 (LV) | – | 6% | 61% | 10% | 8% | 15% [lower-alpha 4] | |
Public Policy Polling (D) [101] | July 12–14, 2019 | 561 (LV) | – | 4% | 44% | 3% | 12% | 38% [lower-alpha 10] | |
Hypothetical polling | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
with Dan Baer and John Hickenlooper
with John Hickenlooper and Mike Johnston
with John Hickenlooper and Alice Madden
with John Hickenlooper and Angela Williams
|
On March 7, 2020, the Colorado Democratic Party held a non-binding Senate primary preference poll at its caucus sites. Attendees could choose delegates to county and then state conventions. If a candidate received at least 30% of the delegates at the state convention they would be placed on the ballot. Some candidates were not listed because they instead chose to attempt to collect signatures to reach the ballot. Candidates needed 1,500 signatures from each congressional district. Hickenlooper and Underwood chose to do both. Romanoff collected the needed signatures as of March 8, 2020. [102] [103]
Romanoff was the only candidate to get more than 30% in the initial precinct caucuses. Hickenlooper withdrew from the assembly process soon afterward, choosing to qualify for the ballot exclusively by petition. Ballot access for assembly candidates will be decided at the state assembly. Caucus winners do not always receive the party's nomination; Romanoff won them in the 2010 Democratic primary for Colorado's Senate race, but Michael Bennet won the party's nomination that year. [104]
The aggregate results of the various precinct caucuses on March 7, 2020, were: [105]
Candidate | Total Raw Votes | Percentage of Vote Won (%) |
---|---|---|
Andrew Romanoff | 8,629 | 54.98 |
John Hickenlooper | 4,761 | 30.34 |
Trish Zornio | 976 | 6.21 |
Stephany Rose Spaulding | 771 | 4.91 |
Uncommitted | 520 | 3.31 |
Erik Underwood | 35 | 0.22 |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | John Hickenlooper | 585,826 | 58.65% | |
Democratic | Andrew Romanoff | 412,955 | 41.35% | |
Total votes | 998,781 | 100.00% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Libertarian | Raymon Doane | 3,477 | 62.41% | |
Libertarian | Gaylon Kent | 2,094 | 37.59% | |
Total votes | 5,571 | 100.00% |
Host | Date & Time | Link(s) | Participants | |
---|---|---|---|---|
John Hickenlooper | Cory Gardner | |||
Colorado State University | October 13, 2020 6:00pm MDT | [119] | Present | Present |
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report [120] | Lean D (flip) | October 29, 2020 |
Inside Elections [121] | Lean D (flip) | October 28, 2020 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball [122] | Likely D (flip) | November 2, 2020 |
Daily Kos [123] | Likely D (flip) | October 30, 2020 |
Politico [124] | Lean D (flip) | November 2, 2020 |
RCP [125] | Lean D (flip) | October 23, 2020 |
DDHQ [126] | Likely D (flip) | November 3, 2020 |
538 [127] | Likely D (flip) | November 2, 2020 |
Economist [128] | Likely D (flip) | November 2, 2020 |
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Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 3] | Margin of error | Cory Gardner (R) | John Hickenlooper (D) | Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Keating Research/Onsight Public Affairs/Colorado Sun [142] | October 29 – November 1, 2020 | 502 (LV) [lower-alpha 11] | ± 4.4% | 42% | 53% | – |
Data for Progress [143] | October 27 – November 1, 2020 | 709 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 45% | 54% | 2% [lower-alpha 12] |
Swayable [144] | October 23 – November 1, 2020 | 443 (LV) | ± 6% | 43% | 57% | – |
Morning Consult [145] | October 22–31, 2020 | 727 (LV) | ± 4% | 44% | 52% | – |
Morning Consult [145] | October 11–20, 2020 | 788 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 42% | 50% | – |
RBI Strategies & Research [146] | October 12–16, 2020 | 502 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 39% | 53% | 7% [lower-alpha 13] |
RMG Research/PoliticalIQ [147] | October 9–15, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 42% | 51% | 7% [lower-alpha 14] |
Civiqs/Daily Kos [148] | October 11–14, 2020 | 1,013 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 42% | 53% | 3% [lower-alpha 15] |
Keating Research/OnSight Public Affairs/Melanson [149] | October 8–13, 2020 | 519 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 41% | 51% | 7% [lower-alpha 16] |
Morning Consult [145] | October 2–11, 2020 | 837 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 40% | 50% | – |
YouGov/University of Colorado [150] | October 5–9, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 4.64% | 40% | 48% | 12% [lower-alpha 17] |
SurveyUSA [151] | October 1–6, 2020 | 1,021 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 39% | 48% | 14% [lower-alpha 18] |
Morning Consult [152] | September 11–20, 2020 | 613 (LV) | ± (2% – 7%) | 42% [lower-alpha 19] | 49% | – |
Morning Consult [153] | September 8–17, 2020 | 599 (LV) [lower-alpha 11] | ± (2% – 4%) | 44% | 46% | – |
Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates [154] [upper-alpha 3] | August 30 – September 5, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 46% | 51% | 4% [lower-alpha 20] |
Global Strategy Group (D) [155] [upper-alpha 4] | August 28 – September 1, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 42% | 52% | 5% |
Morning Consult [156] | August 21–30, 2020 | 638 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 39% [lower-alpha 19] | 48% | 13% |
Morning Consult [156] | August 16–25, 2020 | ≈600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 39% | 48% | – |
Public Policy Polling (D) [157] [upper-alpha 5] | August 18–19, 2020 | 731 (V) | ± 3.2% | 42% | 51% | 7% [lower-alpha 21] |
Morning Consult [156] | August 6–15, 2020 | ≈600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 38% | 49% | – |
Morning Consult [156] | July 27 – August 5, 2020 | ≈600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 39% | 50% | – |
Morning Consult [158] | July 17–26, 2020 | 616 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 42% [lower-alpha 22] | 48% | 11% [lower-alpha 23] |
Morning Consult [156] | July 13–22, 2020 | ≈600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 50% | – |
Public Policy Polling [159] [upper-alpha 6] | June 29–30, 2020 | 840 (V) | ± 3.4% | 40% | 51% | 9% [lower-alpha 24] |
Keating Research/OnSight Public Affairs/Melanson [160] | May 1–3, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 36% | 54% | 10% [lower-alpha 25] |
Montana State University Bozeman [161] | April 10–19, 2020 | 379 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 31% | 48% | 21% [lower-alpha 26] |
Keating Research [162] | October 10–14, 2019 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 42% | 53% | 5% |
Emerson College [163] | August 16–19, 2019 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 53% | 8% |
Global Strategy Group (D) [164] [upper-alpha 7] | August 13–14, 2019 | 617 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 39% | 49% | 13% |
Public Policy Polling [165] [upper-alpha 2] | August 8–11, 2019 | 739 (V) | ± 3.6% | 38% | 51% | 12% |
with generic Democrat
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 3] | Margin of error | Cory Gardner (R) | Generic Democrat | Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Global Strategy Group (D) [164] [upper-alpha 7] | August 13–14, 2019 | 617 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 38% | 48% | 14% |
Global Strategy Group [166] | January 31 – February 4, 2019 | 818 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 40% | 51% | 9% |
DFM Research [167] | January 2–5, 2019 | 550 (A) | ± 4.2% | 38% | 46% | 16% |
Change Research (D) [168] [upper-alpha 8] | December 2–4, 2018 | 540 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 41% | 47% | – |
Public Policy Polling (D) [169] [upper-alpha 9] | August 2–3, 2017 | 628 (V) | ± 3.8% | 41% | 46% | 13% |
Public Policy Polling (D) [170] [upper-alpha 10] | June 30 – July 1, 2017 | 870 (V) | ± 3.6% | 39% | 53% | 8% |
on whether Cory Gardner deserves to be re-elected
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 3] | Margin of error | Yes | No | Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Fabrizio Ward/AARP [171] | July 29–31, 2019 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 32% | 50% | 19% [lower-alpha 27] |
with Generic Republican and Generic Democrat
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 3] | Margin of error | Generic Republican | Generic Democrat | Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
YouGov/University of Colorado [150] | October 5–9, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 4.64% | 39% | 47% | 14% [lower-alpha 28] |
Climate Nexus [172] | February 15–19, 2020 | 485 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 40% | 48% | 12% [lower-alpha 29] |
Fabrizio Ward/AARP [171] | July 29–31, 2019 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 44% | 14% [lower-alpha 30] |
with Mike Johnston
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 3] | Margin of error | Cory Gardner (R) | Mike Johnston (D) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Global Strategy Group (D) [164] [upper-alpha 7] | August 13–14, 2019 | 617 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 39% | 50% | – | 11% |
Fabrizio Ward/AARP [171] | July 29–31, 2019 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 39% | 2% [lower-alpha 31] | 14% |
The election was not particularly close, with Hickenlooper winning by 9.32%. Hickenlooper's win was expected, as Colorado has moved more toward being a blue state. Key to Hickenlooper's victory was Denver County and its surrounding suburban counties, Adams, Arapahoe, Boulder, and Jefferson, the latter of which had been pivotal to Gardner's victory in 2014.[ citation needed ] Gardner did well in the typically red El Paso County, home of Colorado Springs. Gardner also did well in many rural areas of the state. However, Hickenlooper's strong performance in heavily populated counties proved too much for Gardner to overcome. Hickenlooper was also likely helped by Joe Biden, who won the state by 13.5%.
Hickenlooper is the first senator from Colorado who was also the Governor of Colorado since Senator Edwin Johnson was elected in 1936. Hickenlooper was sworn in as Senator on January 3, 2021, for a six-year term that expires on January 3, 2027.
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | John Hickenlooper | 1,731,114 | 53.50% | +7.24% | |
Republican | Cory Gardner (incumbent) | 1,429,492 | 44.18% | −4.03% | |
Libertarian | Raymon Doane | 56,262 | 1.74% | −0.85% | |
Approval Voting | Daniel Doyle | 9,820 | 0.30% | N/A | |
Unity | Stephen Evans | 8,971 | 0.28% | −0.04% | |
Total votes | 3,235,659 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
Democratic gain from Republican |
By county | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
|
Hickenlooper won 4 of 7 congressional districts. [176]
District | Gardner | Hickenlooper | Representative |
---|---|---|---|
1st | 24% | 74% | Diana DeGette |
2nd | 36% | 62% | Joe Neguse |
3rd | 52% | 45% | Scott Tipton |
Lauren Boebert | |||
4th | 59% | 39% | Ken Buck |
5th | 57% | 40% | Doug Lamborn |
6th | 42% | 56% | Jason Crow |
7th | 39% | 58% | Ed Perlmutter |
Partisan clients
Voter samples
John Wright Hickenlooper Jr. is an American politician, geologist, and businessman serving as the junior United States senator from Colorado since 2021. A member of the Democratic Party, he served as the 42nd governor of Colorado from 2011 to 2019 and as the 43rd mayor of Denver from 2003 to 2011.
Harlan Andrew Romanoff is an American politician and public servant. A Democrat, he was a member of the Colorado House of Representatives from 2001 to 2009, serving as Speaker of the House from 2005 to 2009. He was the Democratic nominee for Colorado's 6th congressional district in 2014 and twice sought the Democratic nomination for the United States Senate. He began his career at the Southern Poverty Law Center, founded the Posner Center for International Development, and has led two nonprofit organizations: Mental Health Colorado, and Great Expectations. On January 16th, 2024, he was named Executive Director for Disability Law Colorado, a non-profit legal and advocacy organization which advocates for and provides legal representation for people with disabilities.
Cory Scott Gardner is an American attorney and politician who served as a United States senator from Colorado from 2015 to 2021. A Republican, he was the U.S. representative for Colorado's 4th congressional district from 2011 to 2015 and a member of the Colorado House of Representatives from 2005 to 2011.
The 2012 United States House of Representatives elections in Colorado were held on Tuesday, November 6, 2012, to elect the seven U.S. representatives from the state, one from each of the state's seven congressional districts. The elections coincided with the elections of other federal and state offices, including a quadrennial presidential election. Primary elections were held on June 26, 2012.
The 2014 United States Senate election in Colorado was held on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Colorado, concurrently with the election of the Governor of Colorado, other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Udall ran for re-election to a second term, but narrowly lost to Republican U.S. Representative Cory Gardner by a margin of 1.9 percent.
The 2014 Colorado gubernatorial election was held on November 4, 2014, to elect the Governor and Lieutenant Governor of Colorado, concurrently with the election to Colorado's Class II U.S. Senate seat, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
The 2014 United States House of Representatives elections in Colorado were held on Tuesday, November 4, 2014, to elect the seven U.S. representatives from the state of Colorado, one from each of the state's seven congressional districts. The elections will coincide with the elections of other federal and state offices, including Governor of Colorado and U.S. Senator.
Daniel Brooks Baer is an American politician and former diplomat from Colorado currently serving as Senior Vice President for Policy Research at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Baer served in the Obama administration's State Department, first as a Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for the Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor from 2009 to 2013, and then as United States Ambassador to the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe from 2013 to 2017. In 2018, Governor John Hickenlooper appointed Baer as the executive director of the Colorado Department of Higher Education.
The 2016 United States Senate election in Colorado was held November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Colorado, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
The 2016 United States House of Representatives elections in Colorado were held on November 8, 2016, to elect the seven U.S. representatives from the state of Colorado, one from each of the state's seven congressional districts. The elections coincided with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate and various state and local elections. The primaries were held on June 28.
The 2018 Colorado gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the next governor of Colorado. Incumbent Democratic governor John Hickenlooper was term-limited and could not seek a third consecutive term. The primary election was held on June 26.
The 2020 United States Senate election in New Hampshire was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of New Hampshire, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen won reelection to a third term after comfortably defeating Republican nominee Bryant Messner by 15.6 points and sweeping every single county in the state. This marked the first Senate election since 1972 in which the Democrat carried Belknap County.
A general election was held in the U.S. state of Colorado on November 6, 2018. All of Colorado's executive offices and all seven of its seats in the United States House of Representatives were up for election. Democrats swept the statewide offices up for election, leaving the at-large seat on the University of Colorado Board of Regents and the Class 2 U.S. Senate seat as the last statewide offices held by Republicans.
The 2022 United States Senate election in Colorado was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Colorado. Incumbent Democratic Senator Michael Bennet won reelection to a third full term, defeating Republican businessman Joe O'Dea. Originally appointed to the seat in 2009, Bennet won full terms in 2010 and 2016.
The 2018 United States House of Representatives elections in Colorado were held on November 6, 2018, to elect the seven U.S. representatives from the state of Colorado, one from each of the state's seven congressional districts. The Republican and Democratic Party primaries in Colorado were held on June 26, 2018. The elections coincided with the gubernatorial election, as well as other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections.
The 2020 United States House of Representatives elections in Colorado was held on November 3, 2020, to elect the seven U.S. representatives from the state of Colorado, one from each of the state's seven congressional districts. The elections coincided with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate and various state and local elections.
The 2022 United States House of Representatives elections in Colorado were held on November 8, 2022, to elect the eight U.S. representatives from the state of Colorado, one from each of the state's eight congressional districts. The elections coincided with the Colorado gubernatorial election, as well as other elections to the U.S. House of Representatives, elections to the U.S. Senate, and various state and local elections.
The 2018 Colorado Attorney General election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the next attorney general of Colorado.
The 2022 Colorado Secretary of State election took place on November 8, 2022, to elect the Secretary of State of Colorado. Incumbent Democrat Jena Griswold won re-election to a second term, improving on her 2018 results.
The 2024 United States House of Representatives elections in Colorado will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect the eight U.S. representatives from the State of Colorado, one from each of the state's congressional districts. The elections will coincide with the 2024 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections. The primary election took place on June 25, 2024.
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: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)Official campaign websites