2020 United States Senate election in New Mexico

Last updated

2020 United States Senate election in New Mexico
Flag of New Mexico.svg
  2014 November 3, 2020 2026  
  Ben Ray Lujan, 117th Congress portrait 2.jpg Mark Ronchetti.jpg
Nominee Ben Ray Luján Mark Ronchetti
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote474,483418,483
Percentage51.73%45.62%

2020 United States Senate election in New Mexico results map by county.svg
2020 United States Senate election in New Mexico election results by congressional district.svg
NM Senate 2020.svg
Luján:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Ronchetti:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tie:     40–50%     No data

U.S. senator before election

Tom Udall
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Ben Ray Luján
Democratic

The 2020 United States Senate election in New Mexico was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of New Mexico, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections.

Contents

On March 25, 2019, incumbent Democratic Senator Tom Udall announced that he would retire. [1] [2] [3] Udall was the only Democratic senator who did not run for reelection in 2020. Democratic U.S. Representative Ben Ray Luján defeated Mark Ronchetti by a 6.1% margin. Luján underperformed Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden by 4.6%, who won the concurrent presidential election in the state against President Donald Trump by 10.8%. Ben Ray Luján was the first Hispanic to have won a Senate seat in New Mexico since Joseph Montoya in 1970.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Ben Ray
Luján
Maggie
Toulouse Oliver
Undecided
GBAO Strategies (D) [44] [upper-alpha 1] [45] April 15–18, 2019600 (LV)± 4.0%64%25%

Results

Democratic primary results [46]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Ben Ray Luján 225,082 100.00%
Total votes225,082 100.00%

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

  • Mark Ronchetti, former KRQE chief meteorologist [47]

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

  • Rick Montoya, businessman [50] [51]
  • Mick Rich, businessman and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2018 [52] [53]
  • Louie Sanchez, indoor shooting range owner [54] [53]

Declined

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Gavin
Clarkson
Elisa
Martinez
Mark
Ronchetti
Undecided
Public Opinion Strategies (R) [60] [upper-alpha 2] March 18–22, 2020400 (V)± 4.9%11%11%45%

Results

Results by county:
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Ronchetti
40-50%
50-60%
60-70%
70-80%
Martinez
30-40%
40-50% New Mexico Senate Republican primary, 2020.svg
Results by county:
  Ronchetti
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  Martinez
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
Republican primary results [46]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Mark Ronchetti 89,216 56.49%
Republican Elisa Martinez41,24026.11%
Republican Gavin Clarkson27,47117.39%
Total votes157,927 100.00%

Other candidates

Bob Walsh, the Libertarian nominee Bob Walsh.jpg
Bob Walsh, the Libertarian nominee

Libertarian Party

Nominee

  • Bob Walsh, nuclear safety scientist [61]

Declined

Results

Libertarian primary results [46]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Libertarian Bob Walsh 1,454 100.00%
Total votes1,454 100.00%

General election

Debate

HostDate & timeLink(s)Participants
Ben Ray Luján (D)Mark Ronchetti (R)Bob Walsh (L)
KOB4 and the Santa Fe New MexicanOctober 5, 2020 [62] PresentPresentPresent

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [63] Safe DOctober 29, 2020
Inside Elections [64] Safe DOctober 28, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball [65] Likely DNovember 2, 2020
Daily Kos [66] Safe DOctober 30, 2020
Politico [67] Likely DNovember 2, 2020
RCP [68] Lean DOctober 23, 2020
DDHQ [69] Safe DNovember 3, 2020
538 [70] Likely DNovember 2, 2020
Economist [71] Likely DNovember 2, 2020

Endorsements

Ben Ray Luján (D)

U.S. presidents

Federal officials

State and local politicians

Labor unions

Organizations

Mark Ronchetti (R)

Federal officials

Individuals

Publications

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Ben Ray
Luján (D)
Mark
Ronchetti (R)
Bob
Walsh (L)
Undecided
Research & Polling Inc. [93] October 23–29, 20201,180 (LV)± 2.9%52%44%3%1%
GBAO Strategies (D) [94] [upper-alpha 1] October 14–17, 2020600 (LV)± 4.0%52% [lower-alpha 2] 41%5%
54% [lower-alpha 3] 43%
Public Policy Polling [95] September 30 – October 1, 2020886 (LV)± 3.3%51%41%3%6%
Research & Polling Inc. [96] August 26 – September 2, 20201,123 (LV)±  2.9%49%40%4%8%
Public Policy Polling [97] June 12–13, 2020740 (V)± 3.6%48%34%18%
Hypothetical polling

Ben Ray Luján vs. Gavin Clarkson

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Ben Ray
Luján (D)
Gavin
Clarkson (R)
Undecided
Emerson College [98] January 3–6, 2020967 (RV)± 3.1%54%35%12%

Generic Democrat vs. generic Republican

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Generic
Democrat
Generic
Republican
GBAO Strategies (D) [94] [upper-alpha 1] October 14–17, 2020600 (LV)± 4.0%54%42%

Results

United States Senate election in New Mexico, 2020 [99]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Ben Ray Luján 474,483 51.73% –3.83%
Republican Mark Ronchetti 418,48345.62%+1.18%
Libertarian Bob Walsh24,2712.65%N/A
Total votes917,237 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold
By county
County Ben Ray Luján
Democratic
Mark Ronchetti
Republican
Bob Walsh
Libertarian
MarginTotal
votes
#%#%#%#%
Bernalillo 178,88056.69128,04240.588,6062.7350,83816.11315,528
Catron 54323.551,69473.46692.99-1,151-49.912,306
Chaves 6,14327.6215,62470.254752.14-9,481-42.6322,242
Cibola 4,47850.484,18747.202052.312913.288,870
Colfax 2,54942.353,31455.061562.59-765-12.716,019
Curry 4,26128.5710,09467.675613.76-5,833-39.1014,916
De Baca 22825.2565372.31222.44-425-47.06903
Doña Ana 46,92057.5731,69738.892,8893.5415,22318.6881,506
Eddy 5,30123.2117,07974.774632.03-11,778-51.5622,843
Grant 7,37751.456,61046.103522.457675.3514,339
Guadalupe 1,24056.9689841.25391.7934215.712,177
Harding 15731.2134167.7950.99-184-36.58503
Hidalgo 79841.351,08556.22472.43-287-14.871,930
Lea 4,01819.6215,95077.905082.48-11,932-58.2720,476
Lincoln 2,91528.457,10269.312302.24-4,187-40.8610,247
Los Alamos 7,01857.064,86639.564153.372,15217.5012,299
Luna 3,42643.004,31954.212222.79-893-11.217,967
McKinley 17,08165.218,30431.708073.088,77733.5126,192
Mora 1,67462.3295735.63552.0571726.692,686
Otero 7,98734.2414,62762.707153.06-6,640-28.4623,329
Quay 1,21431.552,54366.09912.36-1,329-34.543,848
Rio Arriba 10,61464.045,68934.322711.634,92529.7216,574
Roosevelt 1,77427.164,50568.982523.86-2,731-41.826,531
Sandoval 37,78249.5236,66648.061,8412.411,1161.4676,289
San Juan 17,25033.1833,14563.761,5883.05-15,895-30.5851,983
San Miguel 7,81767.853,54530.771591.384,27237.0811,521
Santa Fe 60,43273.8719,81424.221,5631.9140,61849.6581,809
Sierra 2,12735.933,65361.711402.36-1,526-25.785,920
Socorro 3,52949.543,38447.512102.951452.037,123
Taos 12,89075.923,74922.083402.009,14153.8416,979
Torrance 2,17929.984,90467.481842.53-2,725-37.507,267
Union 39922.501,32374.62512.88-924-52.121,773
Valencia 13,34441.5318,05356.197302.27-4,709-14.6632,127
Totals474,48351.73418,48345.6224,2712.6556,0006.11917,237

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Ray Luján won 2 of 3 congressional districts. [100]

DistrictRay LujánRonchettiRepresentative
1st 56%41% Deb Haaland
2nd 42%55% Xochitl Torres Small
Yvette Herrell
3rd 56%42% Ben Ray Luján
Teresa Leger Fernandez

See also

Notes

Partisan clients

  1. 1 2 3 Poll sponsored by Luján's campaign.
  2. Poll sponsored by Ronchetti's campaign

Voter samples

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. Standard VI response
  3. If only Luján and Ronchetti were candidates

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References

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