2020 United States Senate election in New Mexico

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2020 United States Senate election in New Mexico
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  Ben Ray Lujan, 117th Congress portrait 2.jpg Mark Ronchetti.jpg
Nominee Ben Ray Luján Mark Ronchetti
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote474,483418,483
Percentage51.73%45.62%
2020 United States Senate election in New Mexico results map by county.svg
2020 United States Senate election in New Mexico election results by congressional district.svg
NM Senate 2020.svg
Luján:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Ronchetti:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tie:     40–50%     No data
U.S. senator before election

Tom Udall
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Ben Ray Luján
Democratic

The 2020 United States Senate election in New Mexico was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of New Mexico, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections.

Contents

On March 25, 2019, incumbent Democratic Senator Tom Udall announced that he would retire. [1] [2] [3] Udall was the only Democratic senator who did not run for reelection in 2020. Democratic U.S. Representative Ben Ray Luján defeated Mark Ronchetti by a 6.1% margin. Luján underperformed Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden by 4.6%, who won the concurrent presidential election in the state against President Donald Trump by 10.8%. Ben Ray Luján was the first Hispanic to have won a Senate seat in New Mexico since Joseph Montoya in 1970.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Ben Ray
Luján		Maggie
Toulouse Oliver		Undecided
GBAO Strategies (D) [44] [upper-alpha 1] [45] April 15–18, 2019600 (LV)± 4.0%64%25%–

Results

Democratic primary results [46]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Ben Ray Luján 225,082 100.00%
Total votes225,082 100.00%

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

  • Mark Ronchetti, former KRQE chief meteorologist [47]

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

  • Rick Montoya, businessman [50] [51]
  • Mick Rich, businessman and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2018 [52] [53]
  • Louie Sanchez, indoor shooting range owner [54] [53]

Declined

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Gavin
Clarkson		Elisa
Martinez		Mark
Ronchetti		Undecided
Public Opinion Strategies (R) [60] [upper-alpha 2] March 18–22, 2020400 (V)± 4.9%11%11%45%–

Results

Results by county: .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} Ronchetti 40-50% 50-60% 60-70% 70-80% Martinez 30-40% 40-50% New Mexico Senate Republican primary, 2020.svg
Results by county:
  Ronchetti
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  Martinez
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
Republican primary results [46]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Mark Ronchetti 89,216 56.49%
Republican Elisa Martinez41,24026.11%
Republican Gavin Clarkson27,47117.39%
Total votes157,927 100.00%

Other candidates

Bob Walsh, the Libertarian nominee Bob Walsh.jpg
Bob Walsh, the Libertarian nominee

Libertarian Party

Nominee

  • Bob Walsh, nuclear safety scientist [61]

Declined

Results

Libertarian primary results [46]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Libertarian Bob Walsh 1,454 100.00%
Total votes1,454 100.00%

General election

Debate

HostDate & timeLink(s)Participants
Ben Ray Luján (D)Mark Ronchetti (R)Bob Walsh (L)
KOB4 and the Santa Fe New MexicanOctober 5, 2020 [62] PresentPresentPresent

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [63] Safe DOctober 29, 2020
Inside Elections [64] Safe DOctober 28, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball [65] Likely DNovember 2, 2020
Daily Kos [66] Safe DOctober 30, 2020
Politico [67] Likely DNovember 2, 2020
RCP [68] Lean DOctober 23, 2020
DDHQ [69] Safe DNovember 3, 2020
538 [70] Likely DNovember 2, 2020
Economist [71] Likely DNovember 2, 2020

Endorsements

Ben Ray Luján (D)

U.S. presidents

Federal officials

State and local politicians

Labor unions

Organizations

Mark Ronchetti (R)

Federal officials

Individuals

Publications

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Ben Ray
Luján (D)		Mark
Ronchetti (R)		Bob
Walsh (L)		Undecided
Research & Polling Inc. [93] October 23–29, 20201,180 (LV)± 2.9%52%44%3%1%
GBAO Strategies (D) [94] [upper-alpha 1] October 14–17, 2020600 (LV)± 4.0%52% [lower-alpha 2] 41%5%–
54% [lower-alpha 3] 43%––
Public Policy Polling [95] September 30 – October 1, 2020886 (LV)± 3.3%51%41%3%6%
Research & Polling Inc. [96] August 26 – September 2, 20201,123 (LV)±  2.9%49%40%4%8%
Public Policy Polling [97] June 12–13, 2020740 (V)± 3.6%48%34%–18%
Hypothetical polling

Ben Ray Luján vs. Gavin Clarkson

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Ben Ray
Luján (D)		Gavin
Clarkson (R)		Undecided
Emerson College [98] January 3–6, 2020967 (RV)± 3.1%54%35%12%

Generic Democrat vs. generic Republican

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Generic
Democrat		Generic
Republican
GBAO Strategies (D) [94] [upper-alpha 1] October 14–17, 2020600 (LV)± 4.0%54%42%

Results

United States Senate election in New Mexico, 2020 [99]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Ben Ray Luján 474,483 51.73% –3.83%
Republican Mark Ronchetti 418,48345.62%+1.18%
Libertarian Bob Walsh24,2712.65%N/A
Total votes917,237 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold
By county
County Ben Ray Luján
Democratic 		Mark Ronchetti
Republican 		Bob Walsh
Libertarian 		MarginTotal
votes
#%#%#%#%
Bernalillo 178,88056.69128,04240.588,6062.7350,83816.11315,528
Catron 54323.551,69473.46692.99-1,151-49.912,306
Chaves 6,14327.6215,62470.254752.14-9,481-42.6322,242
Cibola 4,47850.484,18747.202052.312913.288,870
Colfax 2,54942.353,31455.061562.59-765-12.716,019
Curry 4,26128.5710,09467.675613.76-5,833-39.1014,916
De Baca 22825.2565372.31222.44-425-47.06903
Doña Ana 46,92057.5731,69738.892,8893.5415,22318.6881,506
Eddy 5,30123.2117,07974.774632.03-11,778-51.5622,843
Grant 7,37751.456,61046.103522.457675.3514,339
Guadalupe 1,24056.9689841.25391.7934215.712,177
Harding 15731.2134167.7950.99-184-36.58503
Hidalgo 79841.351,08556.22472.43-287-14.871,930
Lea 4,01819.6215,95077.905082.48-11,932-58.2720,476
Lincoln 2,91528.457,10269.312302.24-4,187-40.8610,247
Los Alamos 7,01857.064,86639.564153.372,15217.5012,299
Luna 3,42643.004,31954.212222.79-893-11.217,967
McKinley 17,08165.218,30431.708073.088,77733.5126,192
Mora 1,67462.3295735.63552.0571726.692,686
Otero 7,98734.2414,62762.707153.06-6,640-28.4623,329
Quay 1,21431.552,54366.09912.36-1,329-34.543,848
Rio Arriba 10,61464.045,68934.322711.634,92529.7216,574
Roosevelt 1,77427.164,50568.982523.86-2,731-41.826,531
Sandoval 37,78249.5236,66648.061,8412.411,1161.4676,289
San Juan 17,25033.1833,14563.761,5883.05-15,895-30.5851,983
San Miguel 7,81767.853,54530.771591.384,27237.0811,521
Santa Fe 60,43273.8719,81424.221,5631.9140,61849.6581,809
Sierra 2,12735.933,65361.711402.36-1,526-25.785,920
Socorro 3,52949.543,38447.512102.951452.037,123
Taos 12,89075.923,74922.083402.009,14153.8416,979
Torrance 2,17929.984,90467.481842.53-2,725-37.507,267
Union 39922.501,32374.62512.88-924-52.121,773
Valencia 13,34441.5318,05356.197302.27-4,709-14.6632,127
Totals474,48351.73418,48345.6224,2712.6556,0006.11917,237

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Ray Luján won 2 of 3 congressional districts. [100]

DistrictRay LujánRonchettiRepresentative
1st 56%41% Deb Haaland
2nd 42%55% Xochitl Torres Small
Yvette Herrell
3rd 56%42% Ben Ray Luján
Teresa Leger Fernandez

See also

Notes

Partisan clients

  1. 1 2 3 Poll sponsored by Luján's campaign.
  2. ↑ Poll sponsored by Ronchetti's campaign

Voter samples

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ↑ Standard VI response
  3. ↑ If only Luján and Ronchetti were candidates

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References

  1. ↑ Wagner, John (March 25, 2019). "Udall announces he won't seek another term representing New Mexico". The Washington Post. Retrieved March 25, 2019.
  2. 1 2 3 4 5 Burns, Alexander (March 25, 2019). "Senator Tom Udall Will Retire, Ending a Dynasty in the West". The New York Times. ISSN   0362-4331 . Retrieved March 25, 2019.
  3. ↑ Udall, Tom (March 25, 2019). "A message to New Mexico from Tom". Medium. Retrieved March 25, 2019.
  4. 1 2 Gonzales, Nathan L.; Gonzales, Nathan L. (March 28, 2019). "Ben Ray Luján to announce New Mexico Senate run Monday". Roll Call . Retrieved March 28, 2019.
  5. ↑ Terrell, Steve (April 19, 2019). "Maggie Toulouse Oliver set to enter race for U.S. Senate". Santa Fe New Mexican . Retrieved April 19, 2019.
  6. ↑ Turner, Scott (December 26, 2019). "Luján has new challenger for Senate". Albuquerque Journal. Retrieved January 3, 2020.
  7. 1 2 3 Reichbach, Matthew (October 29, 2019). "Toulouse Oliver ends Senate run". NM Political Report. Retrieved October 29, 2019.
  8. ↑ Monahan, Joe (April 24, 2019). "Longest-Serving State Senator Now 94 And Mulling Over Re-election Bid, Plus: An Unusual GOP Northern Congress Candidate". New Mexico Politics with Joe Monahan. Retrieved April 24, 2019.
  9. ↑ KOB 4 [@KOB4] (March 28, 2019). "BREAKING: @NewMexicoOAG Hector Balderas says he will NOT run for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by Sen. Tom Udall. #NewMexico #nmpol" (Tweet). Retrieved March 28, 2019– via Twitter.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link)
  10. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Monahan, Joe (March 26, 2019). "March Madness Comes To La Politica; Udall Heads For Exits And Dems Start Filling In Their Brackets For The Big Game To Come; Frustrated R's Watch The Action From The Bench; Our Complete US Senate Coverage Is Up Next". New Mexico Politics with Joe Monahan. Retrieved March 26, 2019.
  11. ↑ Haaland, Deb [@deb4congressnm] (April 10, 2019). "I will not run for the US Senate. I will be focused on ensuring Democrats hold the House in 2020, win the White House, and continue to hold this administration accountable" (Tweet). Retrieved April 10, 2019– via Twitter.
  12. 1 2 3 4 5 Boyd, Dan (April 17, 2019). "Luján lands high-profile endorsements in U.S. Senate race". www.abqjournal.com. Albuquerque Journal.
  13. ↑ Luján, Ben Ray (April 17, 2019). "Thank you, @Deb4CongressNM! You've inspired the people of New Mexico — and the nation — with your fierce leadership in Congress. I am so proud to have your endorsement". @benraylujan. Twitter.
  14. ↑ Oxford, Andrew [@andrewboxford] (March 25, 2019). ""While it's an honor to be considered for the Senate seat," #ABQ Mayor Tim Keller said, "I am committed to the people of Albuquerque and making a difference on the challenges we face here every day." So, Keller's out of the running for Udall's seat … #nmpol #congress" (Tweet). Retrieved March 26, 2019– via Twitter.
  15. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Oxford, Andrew (March 26, 2019). "The contenders: Who could jump in the race to replace Udall?". Santa Fe New Mexican. Retrieved March 26, 2019.
  16. 1 2 3 "Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham has become the latest prominent #NM Democrat to endorse U.S. Rep. Ben Ray Luján's bid for U.S. Senate next year". @DanBoydNM. Twitter. November 7, 2019.
  17. ↑ "Ex-spy Valerie Plame eyes run for Congress in New Mexico". Associated Press. April 5, 2019. Retrieved April 5, 2019.
  18. ↑ D'Ammassa, Algernon (April 3, 2019). "Rep. Xochitl Torres Small rules out Senate run in 2020". Las Cruces Sun-News. Retrieved April 3, 2019.
  19. ↑ Reichbach, Matthew; Lyman, Andy (March 26, 2019). "Who might run to replace Tom Udall in the Senate?". NM Political Report. Retrieved March 26, 2019.
  20. ↑ Arkin, James (March 25, 2019). "Sen. Tom Udall won't seek reelection in 2020". Politico. Retrieved March 25, 2019.
  21. ↑ Udall, Tom (March 25, 2019). "A message to New Mexico from Tom". Medium. Retrieved March 28, 2019.
  22. 1 2 3 4 5 "Udall and Heinrich back Lujan". Santa Fe Reporter. November 5, 2019. Archived from the original on November 6, 2019. Retrieved November 6, 2019.
  23. ↑ Oxford, Andrew [@andrewboxford] (March 25, 2019). "Some folks were quick in the wake of Udall's announcement to rule themselves out as potential Senate candidates. Former gubernatorial candidate and #SantaFe Mayor Alan Webber is a no. "I've got the best job in the world," he told me … #nmpol #congress" (Tweet). Retrieved March 26, 2019– via Twitter.
  24. 1 2 Schneider, Elena (May 1, 2020). "Klobuchar launches Campaign to aid Senate, House Dems in 2020". Politico. Retrieved May 1, 2020.
  25. 1 2 Terrell, Steve (April 17, 2019). "Luján receives Pelosi's endorsement in U.S. Senate race". Santa Fe New Mexican.
  26. 1 2 3 4 Dan, Boyd; Turner, Scott (April 24, 2019). "Toulouse Oliver enters race for U.S. Senate". www.abqjournal.com. Albuquerque Journal.
  27. 1 2 "AFSCME Endorses Luján For U.S. Senate". Los Alamos Daily Post. September 9, 2019.
  28. 1 2 "New Mexico Professional Firefighters Association to endorse Rep. Ben Ray Lujan". KRQE. April 16, 2019.
  29. ↑ "2020 Primary Endorsements: U.S. Senate & U.S. House of Representatives". Animal Protection Voters. May 22, 2020.
  30. 1 2 Brown, Kris (September 12, 2019). "Brady Endorses Sen. Tina Smith, Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, and Rep. Ben Ray Luján for U.S. Senate". Brady.
  31. 1 2 "Senate Candidates - Council for a Livable World". Council for a Livable World.
  32. 1 2 Cortez Masto, Catherine (April 18, 2019). "DSCC Endorses Ben Ray Luján in New Mexico Senate Campaign". DSCC: Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.
  33. ↑ "2020 Endorsed House Candidates". DUH! Demand Universal Healthcare. Archived from the original on May 2, 2020. Retrieved March 19, 2020.
  34. 1 2 Muller, Tiffany (May 21, 2019). "End Citizens United Endorses Ben Ray Luján for U.S. Senate". End Citizens United.
  35. 1 2 Giffords, Gabrielle (May 14, 2019). "Giffords Endorses Ben Ray Luján for Senate in New Mexico". Giffords. Archived from the original on May 26, 2019. Retrieved May 26, 2019.
  36. 1 2 Acosta, Lucas (January 23, 2020). "HRC Announces Senate Endorsements in Effort to Achieve Pro-Equality Majority". Human Rights Campaign.
  37. 1 2 Society, Humane. "2020 Endorsements". Humane Society Legislative Fund.
  38. 1 2 "JStreetPAC Candidates". JStreetPAC. Archived from the original on May 2, 2018. Retrieved December 26, 2019.
  39. 1 2 Rich, Aliyah (November 18, 2019). "LCV Action Fund Endorses Ben Ray Luján For Senate". League of Conservation Voters . Retrieved November 20, 2019.
  40. 1 2 "NARAL Pro-Choice America Endorses Ben Ray Luján for U.S. Senate". NARAL Pro-Choice America. December 2, 2019.
  41. 1 2 "2020 Federal Endorsements - NOW PAC". nowpac.org.
  42. 1 2 "2020 Endorsements". plannedparenthoodaction.org. Planned Parenthood Action Fund. Archived from the original on November 15, 2019. Retrieved December 12, 2019.
  43. 1 2 "Sierra Club #ClimateVoter Guide: Endorsements". Sierra Club.
  44. ↑ GBAO Strategies (D)
  45. ↑ Arkin, James (April 24, 2019). "Private poll shows Luján with large, early lead in New Mexico primary". Politico Pro. Retrieved April 24, 2019. Luján leads Toulouse Oliver, 64 percent to 25 percent, according to a poll conducted by GBAO, a Democratic polling firm. A memo outlining the poll's findings was sent to Dan Sena, a consultant for Luján who served as executive director of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee last cycle when Luján was chairman. The polling memo also said Luján had higher name ID and favorability among Democratic primary voters, though voters viewed both candidates positively. The memo said Luján led among men, women, Hispanics and Anglos. The poll of 600 likely Democratic primary voters was conducted April 15–18, the memo said, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
  46. 1 2 3 Toulouse Oliver, Maggie. "New Mexico Election Results | OFFICIAL RESULTS Primary Election - June 2, 2020". electionresults.sos.state.nm.us. New Mexico Secretary of State. Retrieved June 2, 2020.
  47. ↑ Turner, Scott (January 7, 2020). "TV meteorologist joins New Mexico US Senate race". Albuquerque Journal. Retrieved January 7, 2020.
  48. ↑ Reichbach, Matthew (April 16, 2019). "Clarkson announces run for Senate". The NM Political Report. Retrieved April 16, 2019.
  49. ↑ Contreras, Russell (November 22, 2019). "Republican Elisa Martinez Enters Open Senate Race in New Mexico". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved December 12, 2019.
  50. ↑ Willis, Damien (January 16, 2020). "Las Cruces native Rick Montoya announces run for US Senate in New Mexico". Las Cruces Sun News. Retrieved May 15, 2020.
  51. ↑ Cook, Mike (March 13, 2020). "Competition rules the day as candidates file". The Las Cruces Bulletin. Retrieved May 15, 2020.
  52. ↑ Andy Lyman (July 26, 2019). "Mick Rich is running for Senate again". New Mexico Political Report. Retrieved July 26, 2019.
  53. 1 2 Gerstein, Michael (March 10, 2020). "Two GOP candidates end bids for U.S. Senate; Golden Morper quits House race". Santa Fe New Mexican.
  54. ↑ "Shooting range owner Louie Sanchez joins New Mexico Senate race". Las Cruces Sun News. January 6, 2020. Retrieved January 7, 2020.
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  58. ↑ Duffy, Jennifer (March 25, 2019). "New Mexico Senate: Udall Announces Retirement; Democrats Favored to Retain Seat". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 25, 2019.
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  62. ↑ "New Mexico U.S. Senate Debate". C-SPAN. October 5, 2020.
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  71. ↑ "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. November 2, 2020. Retrieved March 13, 2021.
  72. ↑ "Second Wave of 2020 Endorsements". Medium. September 25, 2020.
  73. ↑ "Kamala Harris Endorsements". May 9, 2020.
  74. ↑ "New Mexico Federation of Labor, AFL-CIO 2020 Endorsement Announcement". September 23, 2020.
  75. ↑ "Teamsters Local 492 Endorses Ben Ray Lujan For United States Senate". Cision. August 30, 2020. Retrieved April 19, 2023.
  76. ↑ "New Mexico – Official UAW Endorsements". uawendorsements.org. United Automobile Workers.
  77. ↑ "ANA Political Action Committee Endorses Initial Round of Congressional Champions for 2020 Election Cycle". March 10, 2020.
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  94. 1 2 GBAO Strategies (D)
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  98. ↑ Emerson College
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