2020 United States presidential election in Florida

Last updated

2020 United States presidential election in Florida
Flag of Florida.svg
←  2016 November 3, 2020 2024  →
Turnout77.17% (of registered voters) [1] Increase2.svg 2.69 pp
  Donald Trump official portrait (cropped).jpg Joe Biden presidential portrait (cropped).jpg
Nominee Donald Trump Joe Biden
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida Delaware
Running mate Mike Pence Kamala Harris
Electoral vote290
Popular vote5,668,7315,297,045
Percentage51.22%47.86%
Florida Presidential Election Results 2020.svg
FL-20-pres-districts.svg
FL President 2020.svg
President before election

Donald Trump
Republican

Elected President

Joe Biden
Democratic

The 2020 United States presidential election in Florida was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election, in which all 50 states and the District of Columbia participated. [2] Florida voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent president Donald Trump, and his running mate, Vice President Mike Pence, against Democratic Party nominee, former vice president Joe Biden, and his running mate, United States senator Kamala Harris, of California. Florida had 29 electoral votes in the Electoral College. [3]

Contents

Florida was one of six states as well as Washington, D.C., where Trump received a greater percentage of the two-party vote than he did in 2016. [a]

Miami Beach, Florida, which hosted the 1972 Democratic National Convention, was a finalist to host the 2020 Democratic National Convention. [4] The other finalists were Milwaukee and Houston; Milwaukee was chosen. [5] [6] Florida was Trump's state of residency for this election; New York was his home state in 2016. [7] Trump was the first nominee of either major party to be a Florida resident. Biden was selected as the Democratic nominee in the 2020 Florida Democratic presidential primary on March 17, 2020.

Before the election, aggregate polls had Biden in the lead in Florida by 1 to 3 percentage points. Despite this, Trump won by a 3.4-point margin, improving on his margin from 2016 by 2.2 points. This was the largest margin for any presidential election in Florida since 2004. The main reason was increased support for Trump among Latino voters in the state, particularly in Miami-Dade County, which Biden carried by 7.4 points, significantly less than Clinton's 29.4-point margin in 2016 and Obama's 23.7-point margin in 2012. [8] Trump carried the Cuban vote with 56%, while Biden carried the Puerto Rican vote with 66%, and Trump and Biden split the South American vote with 50% each. Overall, Biden won 54% of Latinos. [9] [10]

In this election, Florida voted 7.8 points right of the nation as a whole, the furthest it has voted from the nation since 1988, when the state voted 14.6 points right of the national result. This was the first election in which Florida backed the losing candidate since 1992. Despite the overall rightward shift, Biden became the first Democrat since 1976 to win the heavily urbanized Duval County, historically a Republican stronghold and home to Jacksonville. Similarly, he became the first Democrat to win Seminole County since Harry Truman in 1948.

Primary election

The primary elections were held on March 17, 2020.

Republican primary

The Florida Secretary of State declared Rocky De La Fuente to be a major candidate and thus worthy of automatic inclusion on the ballot.

This section is an excerpt from 2020 Florida Republican presidential primary § FLresults.[ edit ]
2020 Florida Republican presidential primary [11] [12]
CandidateVotes %Estimated
delegates
Donald Trump (incumbent)1,162,98493.79122
Bill Weld 39,3193.17
Joe Walsh (withdrawn)25,4642.05
Rocky De La Fuente 12,1720.98
Total1,239,939100%122

Democratic primary

Three Democrats were still in the race by the time Florida held its primaries: Vermont senator Bernie Sanders, former vice president Joe Biden, and representative from Hawaii, Tulsi Gabbard. [13] [14] [15]

The first Democratic debate took place in Miami over two nights at the end of June 2019. It was broadcast on several of the NBC networks. [16]

This section is an excerpt from 2020 Florida Democratic presidential primary § FLresults.[ edit ]
Popular vote share by county Biden--40-50% Biden--50-60% Biden--60-70% Biden--70-80% Biden--80-90% Florida Democratic presidential primary election results by county margins, 2020.svg
Popular vote share by county
  Biden—40–50%
  Biden—50–60%
  Biden—60–70%
  Biden—70–80%
  Biden—80–90%
2020 Florida Democratic presidential primary [17]
CandidateVotes %Delegates [18]
Joe Biden 1,077,37561.95162
Bernie Sanders 397,31122.8457
Michael Bloomberg (withdrawn) [b] 146,5448.43
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn)39,8862.29
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn) [b] 32,8751.89
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn)17,2760.99
Tulsi Gabbard 8,7120.50
Andrew Yang (withdrawn)5,2860.30
Michael Bennet (withdrawn)4,2440.24
Tom Steyer (withdrawn)2,5100.14
Marianne Williamson (withdrawn)1,7440.10
John Delaney (withdrawn)1,5830.09
Cory Booker (withdrawn)1,5070.09
Julián Castro (withdrawn)1,0360.06
Joe Sestak (withdrawn)6640.04
Deval Patrick (withdrawn)6610.04
Total1,739,214100%219

General election

Final predictions

SourceRanking
The Cook Political Report [19] Tossup
Inside Elections [20] Tilt D (flip)
Sabato's Crystal Ball [21] Lean R
Politico [22] Tossup
RCP [23] Tossup
Niskanen [24] Tossup
CNN [25] Tossup
The Economist [26] Lean D (flip)
CBS News [27] Tossup
270towin [28] Tossup
ABC News [29] Tossup
NPR [30] Tossup
NBC News [31] Lean D (flip)
538 [32] Lean D (flip)

Polling

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		 Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other/
Undecided [c] 		Margin
270 to Win [33] October 24 – November 1, 2020November 3, 202048.7%46.0%5.3%
Real Clear Politics [34] October 28 – November 2, 2020November 3, 202047.9%47.0%5.1%
FiveThirtyEight [35] until November 2, 2020November 3, 202049.1%46.6%4.3%
Average48.6%46.5%4.9%Biden +2.1

State polls

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [d] 		Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Jo
Jorgensen
Libertarian 		Howie
Hawkins
Green 		Other Undecided
Insider Advantage/Fox 35 [36] Nov 1–2, 2020 [e] 400 (LV)± 4.4%48%47%2%-–3%
Trafalgar Group [37] Oct 31 – Nov 2, 20201,054 (LV)± 2.94%49%47%2%-1% [f] 1%
SurveyMonkey/Axios [38] Oct 20 – Nov 2, 20208,792 (LV)± 1.5%49% [g] 49%--––
AYTM/Aspiration [39] Oct 30 – Nov 1, 2020517 (LV)–43%45%--––
Change Research/CNBC [40] Oct 29 – Nov 1, 2020806 (LV)± 3.45%48%51%0%0%–1%
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc./Center for American Greatness [41] [A] Oct 29 – Nov 1, 2020400 (LV)± 4.9%47%46%2%-2% [h] 3%
Quinnipiac University [42] Oct 28 – Nov 1, 20201,657 (LV)± 2.4%42%47%--1% [f] 9%
Swayable [43] Oct 27 – Nov 1, 20201,261 (LV)± 3.7%46%53%1%1%––
Data for Progress [44] Oct 27 – Nov 1, 20201,202 (LV)± 2.8%48%51%1%1%0% [i] –
Ipsos/Reuters [45] Oct 27 – Nov 1, 2020670 (LV)± 4.3%46% [j] 50%1%0%1% [k] –
46% [l] 50%--2% [m] 2%
47% [n] 51%--2% [o] –
Frederick Polls/Compete Everywhere [46] [B] Oct 30–31, 2020768 (LV)± 3.5%49%51%--––
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports [47] Oct 29–31, 2020800 (LV)± 3.5%47%48%--3% [p] –
Siena College/NYT Upshot [48] Oct 27–31, 20201,451 (LV)± 3.2%44%47%2%1%0% [q] 6% [r]
Morning Consult [49] Oct 22–31, 20204,451 (LV)± 2%45%52%--––
St. Pete Polls [50] Oct 29–30, 20202,758 (LV)± 1.9%48%49%1%-–2%
RMG Research/PoliticalIQ [51] Oct 28–30, 20201,200 (LV)± 2.8%47% [j] 51%--2% [o] 0%
45% [s] 52%--2% [o] 0%
48% [t] 49%--2% [o] 0%
Targoz Market Research/PollSmart [52] Oct 25–30, 20201,027 (LV)–47%51%--2% [u] –
AtlasIntel [53] Oct 28–29, 2020786 (LV)± 3%48.5%48.5%--–3%
Public Policy Polling/Climate Power 2020 [54] [C] Oct 28–29, 2020941 (V)–45%52%--–3%
Harvard-Harris/The Hill [55] Oct 26–29, 20201,148 (LV)± ≥3%47%50%--–3%
ABC/Washington Post [56] Oct 24–29, 2020824 (LV)± 4%50%48%1%0%0% [v] 0%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [57] Oct 27–28, 20201,587 (LV)–46%50%1%0%0%3%
Trafalgar Group [58] Oct 25–28, 20201,088 (LV)± 2.89%50%47%2%-1% [f] 1%
Monmouth University [59] Oct 24–28, 2020509 (RV)± 4.7%45%50%1%0%1% [w] 2%
509 (LV)45% [x] 51%--––
46% [y] 50%--––
SurveyMonkey/Axios [38] Oct 1–28, 202014,571 (LV)–50%48%--––
Marist College/NBC [60] Oct 25–27, 2020743 (LV)± 4.4%47%51%--1%1%
Quinnipiac University [61] Oct 23–27, 20201,324 (LV)± 2.7%42%45%--1% [f] 11%
Ipsos/Reuters [62] Oct 21–27, 2020704 (LV)± 4.2%47% [j] 48%1%1%2% [z] –
47% [l] 49%--3% [aa] 2%
Swayable [63] Oct 23–26, 2020605 (LV)± 5.4%51%46%2%1%––
YouGov/Institute of Politics at Florida State University [64] Oct 16–26, 20201,200 (LV)± 3.2%46%48%--–6%
Wick Surveys [65] Oct 24–25, 20201,000 (LV)± 3.1%50%47%--––
Florida Atlantic University [66] Oct 24–25, 2020937 (LV)± 3.1%48%50%--2% [ab] –
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc./Center for American Greatness [67] [A] Oct 23–25, 2020400 (LV)± 4.9%49%44%2%-3% [ac] 3%
Univision/University of Houston/Latino
Decisions/North Star Opinion Research [68] 		Oct 17–25, 2020743 (RV)± 3.56%46%49%--2% [ab] 3%
Ryan Tyson (R) [69] Released Oct 24, 2020– (V) [ad] –47%45%--3% [ae] 4%
Gravis Marketing [70] Oct 24, 2020665 (LV)± 3.8%48%47%--–5%
YouGov/CBS [71] Oct 20–23, 20201,228 (LV)± 3.6%48%50%--2% [af] 0%
St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics [72] Oct 21–22, 20202,527 (LV)± 2%47%49%--2% [ag] 2%
RMG Research/PoliticalIQ [73] Oct 20–22, 2020800 (LV)± 3.5%48% [j] 50%--1% [ah] 1%
46% [s] 52%--1% [ah] 1%
48% [t] 46%--1% [ah] 1%
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports [74] Oct 20–21, 2020800 (LV)± 3.5%50%46%--3% [ai] 3%
Ipsos/Reuters [75] Oct 14–21, 2020662 (LV)± 4.3%46% [j] 51%1%0%2% [z] –
46% [l] 50%--1% [aj] 3%
Citizen Data [76] Oct 17–20, 20201,000 (LV)± 3.1%45%50%1%0%1%4%
Civiqs/Daily Kos [77] Oct 17–20, 2020863 (LV)± 3.5%47%51%--1% [f] 1%
CNN/SSRS [78] Oct 15–20, 2020847 (LV)± 4%46%50%1%1%0% [ak] 1%
Morning Consult [49] Oct 11–20, 20204,685 (LV)± 1.4%45%52%--––
Change Research/CNBC [79] Oct 16–19, 2020547 (LV) [e] –45%50%--––
University of North Florida [80] Oct 12–16, 2020863 (LV)± 3.3%47%48%--1% [f] 3%
HarrisX/The Hill [81] Oct 12–15, 2020965 (LV)–48%48%--–4%
Ipsos/Reuters [82] Oct 7–14, 2020653 (LV)± 4.4%47% [j] 50%0%0%2% [al] –
47% [l] 49%--1% [aj] 3%
Trafalgar Group [83] Oct 11–13, 20201,051 (LV)± 2.94%48%46%2%1%1% [f] 2%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [84] Oct 10–13, 20201,519 (LV)–44% [e] 50%1%0%––
St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics [85] Oct 11–12, 20202,215 (LV)± 2.1%47%49%--1% [am] 2%
Emerson College [86] Oct 10–12, 2020690 (LV)± 3.7%48% [an] 51%--1% [f] –
Mason-Dixon [87] Oct 8–12, 2020625 (LV)± 4%45%48%--1% [ao] 6%
Clearview Research [88] Oct 7–12, 2020550 (LV)± 4.18%40% [j] 47%--4% [ap] 9%
39% [aq] 48%--4% [ap] 9%
41% [ar] 46%--4% [ap] 9%
Morning Consult [49] Oct 2–11, 20204,785 (LV)± 1.4%46%51%--––
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [84] Oct 9–10, 2020750 (LV)–42% [e] 53%1%0%––
Florida Atlantic University [89] Oct 9–10, 2020644 (LV)± 3.8%47%51%--2% [ab] –
RMG Research/PoliticalIQ [90] Oct 4–8, 2020800 (LV)–46% [j] 48%1%1%1%4%
44% [s] 50%1%1%1%4%
47% [t] 46%1%1%1%4%
Insider Advantage/Insider Advantage/Hannity Exclusive (R) [91] Oct 6–7, 2020400 (LV)± 4.9%49%46%1%-–10%
YouGov/CCES [92] Sep 29 – Oct 7, 20203,755 (LV)–47%49%--––
Ipsos/Reuters [93] Sep 29 – Oct 7, 2020678 (LV)± 4.3%45%49%--1% [aj] 5%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [94] Oct 4–6, 2020998 (LV)± 3.1%44%49%1%0%1% [as] 6%
Quinnipiac University [95] Oct 1–5, 20201,256 (LV)± 2.8%40%51%--1% [f] 7%
Change Research/CNBC [96] Oct 2–4, 2020560 (LV)–46%50%--––
Suffolk University/USA Today [97] Oct 1–4, 2020500 (LV)± 4.4%45% [j] 45%2%0% [at] 2% [au] 6%
46% [av] 45%--2% [aw] 7%
University of North Florida [98] Oct 1–4, 20203,134 (LV)± 1.8%45%51%--1% [f] 3% [r]
St. Leo University [99] Sep 27 – Oct 2, 2020489 (LV)–44%50%--–5%
Siena College/NYT Upshot [100] Sep 30 – Oct 1, 2020710 (LV)± 4.2%42%47%2%1%0% [q] 8% [r]
SurveyMonkey/Axios [38] Sep 1–30, 202012,962 (LV)–47%51%--–2%
Cherry Communications/Florida Chamber of Commerce [101] Sep 23–29, 2020600 (LV)± 4%44% [e] 49%--––
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc./Center for American Greatness [102] [A] Sep 23–26, 2020500 (LV)± 4.3%43%46%3%-–8% [r]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [103] Sep 23–25, 20201,073 (LV)± 2.99%43%48%1%1%1% [as] 7%
St. Pete Polls [104] Sep 21–22, 20202,906 (LV)± 1.8%47%50%--2% [ag] 2%
Data For Progress [105] [D] Sep 15–22, 2020620 (LV)± 3.9%43%46%--–11%
Change Research/CNBC [106] Sep 18–20, 2020702 (LV)–46%49%--––
ABC/Washington Post [107] Sep 15–20, 2020613 (LV)± 4.5%51%47%--1% [ax] 1%
Hart Research Associates/Human Rights Campaign [108] [E] Sep 17–19, 2020400 (LV)± 4.9%45%51%--––
YouGov/CBS [109] Sep 15–18, 20201,205 (LV)± 3.7%46%48%--1% [ay] 5%
Ipsos/Reuters [110] Sep 11–17, 2020586 (LV)± 4.6%47%47%--2% [m] 4%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [111] Sep 12–14, 20201,158 (LV)± 2.88%44%47%1%1%1% [as] 6%
Monmouth University [112] Sep 10–13, 2020428 (RV)± 4.7%45%50%2%0%1% [az] 3%
428 (LV)45% [ba] 50%--1% [bb] 3%
46% [bc] 49%--1% [bb] 3%
Kaiser Family Foundation/Cook Political Report [113] Aug 29 – Sep 13, 20201,009 (RV)± 4.0%42%43%--4% [bd] 11%
Florida Atlantic University [114] Sep 11–12, 2020631 (LV)± 3.8%50%50%--0% [be] –
St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics/AARP [115] Sep 7–8, 20202,689 (LV)± 1.9%47%50%--2% [ag] 2%
Benenson Strategy Group/GS Strategy Group/AARP [116] Aug 30 – Sep 8, 20201,600 (LV)± 2.5%46%48%--2% [bf] 4%
Morning Consult [117] Aug 29 – Sep 7, 20203,914 (LV)± (2%-4%)43% [bg] 50%--––
Change Research/CNBC [118] Sep 4–6, 20201,144 (LV)–46%49%--4% [bh] –
Marist College/NBC [119] Aug 31 – Sep 5, 2020760 (LV)± 4.5%48%48%--1%2%
Trafalgar Group [120] Sep 1–3, 20201,022 (LV)± 3.0%49%46%2%-1% [bi] 2%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [121] Aug 30 – Sep 3, 20201,093 (LV)± 2.96%43%48%1%1%1% [as] 6%
GQR Research (D) [122] Aug 26 – Sep 3, 2020800 (LV)± 3.5%46%51%--––
Quinnipiac [123] Aug 28 – Sep 1, 20201,235 (LV)± 2.8%45%48%--1% [f] 5%
SurveyMonkey/Axios [38] Aug 1–31, 202012,286 (LV)–50%48%--–2%
Morning Consult [124] Aug 21–30, 20203,790 (LV)± (2%–4%)47%49%--––
Opinium/The Guardian [125] Aug 21–26, 2020684 (LV)–43%50%--1%6%
Change Research/CNBC [126] Aug 21–23, 20201,262 (LV)–46%49%--––
PPP [127] Aug 21–22, 2020671 (V)± 3.8%44%48%--–7%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies [128] Aug 16, 20201,280 (LV)–41%49%1%-1% [as] 7%
Morning Consult [124] Aug 7–16, 20203,484 (LV)± (2%–4%)45%50%--––
Tyson Group/Consumer Energy Alliance [129] [F] Aug 11–15, 2020750 (LV)± 4%44%46%2%-1% [bj] 6%
Change Research/CNBC [130] Aug 7–9, 2020469 (LV)–44%50%--––
OnMessage Inc./Heritage Action [131] [G] Aug 2–4, 2020400 (LV)–49%49%--–2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios [38] Jul 1–31, 202013,945 (LV)–48%49%--–2%
Change Research/CNBC [132] Jul 24–26, 2020685 (LV)–45%48%--––
Morning Consult [133] Jul 17–26, 20203,760 (LV)± 1.6%46% [bg] 49%--––
Morning Consult [133] Jul 16–25, 2020– (LV) [ad] –45%49%--––
CNN/SSRS [134] Jul 18–24, 2020880 (RV)± 3.8%46%51%--2% [bk] 2%
Zogby Analytics [135] Jul 21–23, 2020811 (RV)± 3.4%43%43%3%2%–9%
Mason-Dixon [136] Jul 20–23, 2020625 (LV)± 4.0%46%50%--–4%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [137] Jul 19–21, 20201,121 (LV)–41%48%1%1%1% [as] 8%
Quinnipiac University [138] Jul 16–20, 2020924 (RV)± 4.3%38%51%--6% [bl] 5%
Morning Consult [133] Jul 6–15, 2020– (LV) [ad] –45%50%--––
Florida Politics/AARP Florida/St. Pete Polls [139] Jul 13–14, 20203,018 (RV)± 1.8%44%50%--2% [bm] 3%
Gravis Marketing [140] Jul 13, 2020513 (LV)± 4.3%43%53%--–4%
Change Research/CNBC [141] Jul 10–12, 20201,128 (LV)–43%50%--––
YouGov/CBS [142] Jul 7–10, 20201,206 (LV)± 3.6%42%48%--2% [bn] 8%
Morning Consult [133] Jun 26 – Jul 5, 2020– (LV) [ad] –46%49%--––
Trafalgar Group [143] Jun 29 – Jul 2, 20201,072 (LV)± 2.91%46%46%--5% [bo] 3%
SurveyMonkey/Axios [38] Jun 8–30, 20205,663 (LV)–51%47%--–2%
Change Research/CNBC [144] Jun 26–28, 2020951 (LV) [e] –45%50%--––
Morning Consult [133] Jun 16–25, 2020– (LV) [ad] –45%49%--––
Fox News [145] Jun 20–23, 20201,010 (RV)± 3%40%49%--6% [bp] 6%
Siena College/NYT Upshot [146] Jun 8–18, 2020651 (RV)± 4.6%41%47%--4% [bq] 7%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [147] Jun 14–15, 20201,079 (LV)± 2.98%41%45%1%1%1% [as] 11%
Morning Consult [133] Jun 6–15, 2020– (LV) [ad] –45%50%--––
Change Research/CNBC [148] Jun 12–14, 2020713 (LV) [e] –43%50%--3% [br] –
Gravis Marketing/OANN [149] Released Jun 11, 2020– (V) [ad] –50%50%--––
TIPP/American Greatness PAC [150] [A] Jun 9–11, 2020875 (LV)–40%51%--4% [bs] 5%
Morning Consult [133] May 27 – Jun 5, 2020– (LV) [ad] –48%47%--––
Change Research/CNBC [151] May 29–31, 20201,186 (LV) [e] –45%48%--2%4%
Cygnal (R) [152] May 18–30, 2020881 (LV)± 3.3%43.8%47%--3.3% [bt] 5.9%
St. Pete Polls [153] May 26–27, 20204,763 (RV)± 1.4%46.7%47.5%--2.7% [bu] 3.1%
Morning Consult [133] May 17–26, 20203,593 (LV)–48% [bg] 47%--––
Morning Consult [133] May 16–25, 2020– (LV) [ad] –48%47%--––
Point Blank Political [154] May 14–17, 20202,149 (LV)± 3.5%44%45%1% [bv] <1% [bw] 2%8%
Point Blank Political [154] May 14–17, 20202,149 (LV)± 3.5%48%52%--––
Morning Consult [133] May 6–15, 2020– (LV) [ad] –50%45%--––
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [155] May 10–14, 20201,014 (LV)± 3.1%43%45%--3% [bx] 10%
Florida Atlantic University [156] May 8–12, 2020928 (RV)± 3.1%47%53%--––
Fox News [157] Apr 18–21, 20201,004 (RV)± 3.0%43%46%--3%7%
Quinnipiac University [158] Apr 16–20, 20201,385 (RV)± 2.6%42%46%--3%7%
St. Pete Polls [159] Apr 16–17, 20205,659 (RV)± 1.3%48%48%--–4%
University of North Florida [160] Mar 31 – Apr 4, 20203,244 (RV)± 1.7%40%46%--–8%
AtlasIntel [161] Mar 14–16, 20201,100 (RV)± 3.0%45%45%--10%–
Univision [162] Mar 6–12, 20201,071 (RV)± 3.0%48%45%--–7%
Florida Atlantic University [163] Mar 5–7, 20201,216 (RV)± 2.7%51%49%--––
University of North Florida [98] Feb, 2020696 (LV)–45%45%--–10% [r]
Saint Leo University [164] Feb 17–22, 2020900 (LV)± 3.5%40%51%--–8%
University of North Florida [165] Feb 10–18, 2020668 (RV)–48%49%--–3%
Florida Atlantic University [166] Jan 9–12, 20201,285 (RV)± 2.6%49%51%--––
Cherry Communications/Florida Chamber of Commerce [167] [H] Jan 3–12, 2020608 (LV)± 4%49%45%--––
Mason-Dixon [168] Dec 11–16, 2019625 (RV)± 4.0%45%47%--–8%
Siena College/NYT Upshot [169] Oct 13–26, 2019650 (LV)± 4.4%44%46%--––
University of North Florida [170] Oct 14–20, 2019643 (RV)± 3.8%43%48%--6% [by] 3%
Florida Atlantic University [171] Sep 12–15, 2019934 (RV)± 3.1%50.5%49.5%--––
Quinnipiac University [172] Jun 12–17, 20191,279 (RV)± 3.3%41%50%--1%6%
St. Pete Polls [173] Jun 15–16, 20193,095 (LV)± 1.8%47%47%--–6%
Florida Atlantic University [174] May 16–19, 20191,007 (RV)± 3.0%50%50%--––
WPA Intelligence [175] Apr 27–30, 2019200 (LV)± 6.9%48%44%--–7%
Former candidates

Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [d] 		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump (R)		Michael
Bloomberg (D)		OtherUndecided
Saint Leo University [164] Feb 17–22, 2020900 (LV)± 3.5%36%52%–12%
University of North Florida [165] Feb 10–18, 2020672 (RV)–44%50%–6%
Cherry Communications/Florida Chamber of Commerce [167] [H] Jan 3–12, 2020608 (LV)± 4%49%44%––

Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [d] 		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump (R)		Pete
Buttigieg (D)		OtherUndecided
Saint Leo University [164] Feb 17–22, 2020900 (LV)± 3.5%40%45%–15%
University of North Florida [165] Feb 10–18, 2020664 (RV)–49%45%–7%
Florida Atlantic University [166] Jan 9–12, 20201,285 (RV)± 2.6%50%50%––
Cherry Communications/Florida Chamber of Commerce [167] [H] Jan 3–12, 2020608 (LV)± 4%50%43%––
Mason-Dixon [168] Dec 11–16, 2019625 (RV)± 4.0%49%45%–6%
University of North Florida [170] Oct 14–20, 2019643 (RV)± 3.8%43%42%7% [bz] 9%
Quinnipiac University [172] Jun 12–17, 20191,279 (RV)± 3.3%43%44%1%9%
Florida Atlantic University [174] May 16–19, 20191,007 (RV)± 3.0%52%48%––

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [d] 		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump (R)		Kamala
Harris (D)		OtherUndecided
University of North Florida [170] Oct 14–20, 2019643 (RV)± 3.8%44%41%8% [ca] 7%
Florida Atlantic University [171] Sep 12–15, 2019934 (RV)± 3.1%52%48%––
Quinnipiac University [172] Jun 12–17, 20191,279 (RV)± 3.3%44%45%1%7%
Florida Atlantic University [174] May 16–19, 20191,007 (RV)± 3.0%53%47%––

Donald Trump vs. Amy Klobuchar

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [d] 		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump (R)		Amy
Klobuchar (D)		OtherUndecided
Saint Leo University [164] Feb 17–22, 2020900 (LV)± 3.5%41%43%–16%
University of North Florida [165] Feb 10–18, 2020662 (RV)–48%44%–8%

Donald Trump vs. Beto O'Rourke

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [d] 		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump (R)		Beto
O'Rourke (D)		OtherUndecided
Quinnipiac University [172] Jun 12–17, 20191,279 (RV)± 3.3%44%45%1%7%

Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [d] 		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump (R)		Bernie
Sanders (D)		OtherUndecided
AtlasIntel [161] Mar 14–16, 20201,100 (RV)± 3.0%48%41%11%–
Univision [162] Mar 6–12, 20201,071 (RV)± 3.0%49%42%–8%
Florida Atlantic University [163] Mar 5–7, 20201,216 (LV)± 2.7%53%47%––
Saint Leo University [164] Feb 17–22, 2020900 (LV)± 3.5%40%49%–11%
University of North Florida [165] Feb 10–18, 2020671 (RV)–48%48%–4%
Florida Atlantic University [166] Jan 9–12, 20201,285 (RV)± 2.6%47%53%––
Mason-Dixon [168] Dec 11–16, 2019625 (RV)± 4.0%49%44%–7%
Siena College/NYT Upshot [169] Oct 13–26, 2019650 (LV)± 4.4%45%44%––
Florida Atlantic University [171] Sep 12–15, 2019934 (RV)± 3.1%50.5%49.5%––
Quinnipiac University [172] Jun 12–17, 20191,279 (RV)± 3.3%42%48%1%6%
Florida Atlantic University [174] May 16–19, 20191,007 (RV)± 3.0%51%49%––

Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [d] 		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump (R)		Elizabeth
Warren (D)		OtherUndecided
Saint Leo University [164] Feb 17–22, 2020900 (LV)± 3.5%42%44%–14%
University of North Florida [165] Feb 10–18, 2020661 (RV)–47%47%–6%
Florida Atlantic University [166] Jan 9–12, 20201,285 (RV)± 2.6%49%51%––
Cherry Communications/Florida Chamber of Commerce [167] [H] Jan 3–12, 2020608 (LV)± 4%50%43%––
Mason-Dixon [168] Dec 11–16, 2019625 (RV)± 4.0%51%42%–7%
Siena College/NYT Upshot [169] Oct 13–26, 2019650 (LV)± 4.4%46%42%––
University of North Florida [170] Oct 14–20, 2019643 (RV)± 3.8%43%46%6% [by] 6%
Florida Atlantic University [171] Sep 12–15, 2019934 (RV)± 3.1%50%50%––
Quinnipiac University [172] Jun 12–17, 20191,279 (RV)± 3.3%43%47%1%6%
Florida Atlantic University [174] May 16–19, 20191,007 (RV)± 3.0%52%48%––
Zogby Analytics [176] Aug 17–23, 2017828 (LV)± 3.4%39%48%–14%
Hypothetical polling

with Donald Trump and Oprah Winfrey

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [d] 		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump (R)		Oprah
Winfrey (D)		OtherUndecided
Dixie Strategies [177] Jan 9–10, 2018785 (LV)± 3.5%48%24%15%13%

with Donald Trump and generic Democrat

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [d] 		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump (R)		Generic
Democrat		Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) [178] [I] Jun 14–16, 2019679 (V)± 3.8%44%51%6%
Mason-Dixon [179] Jan 14–17, 2019625 (RV)± 4.0%45%46%9%

with Donald Trump and generic Opponent

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [d] 		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump (R)		Generic
Opponent		Undecided
Quinnipiac University [180] Mar 6–11, 20191,058 (V)± 3.7%31%51% [cb] 18% [cc]

with Mike Pence and Joe Biden

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [d] 		Margin
of error		Mike
Pence (R)		Joe
Biden (D)		OtherUndecided
University of North Florida [170] Oct 14–20, 2019643 (RV)± 3.8%39%49%8% [ca] 5%

with Mike Pence and Kamala Harris

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [d] 		Margin
of error		Mike
Pence (R)		Kamala
Harris (D)		Undecided
St. Leo University [99] Sep 27 – Oct 2, 2020489 (LV)± 3.0%46.8%46.7%6.5%

with Mike Pence and Elizabeth Warren

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [d] 		Margin
of error		Mike
Pence (R)		Elizabeth
Warren (D)		OtherUndecided
University of North Florida [170] Oct 14–20, 2019643 (RV)± 3.8%40%46%8% [ca] 6%

Results

2020 United States presidential election in Florida [181]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Donald Trump
Mike Pence 		5,668,731 51.22% +2.20%
Democratic Joe Biden
Kamala Harris 		5,297,04547.86%+0.04%
Libertarian Jo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen 		70,3240.64%−1.56%
Green Howie Hawkins
Angela Walker 		14,7210.13%−0.55%
Reform Rocky De La Fuente
Darcy Richardson		5,9660.05%−0.05%
Socialism and Liberation Gloria La Riva
Sunil Freeman		5,7120.05%N/A
Constitution Don Blankenship
William Mohr 		3,9020.04%−0.13%
Write-in 1,0550.01%−0.26%
Total votes11,067,456 100.00%

By county

CountyDonald Trump
Republican		Joe Biden
Democratic		Various candidates
Write-ins		MarginTotal votes cast
# %# %# %# %
Alachua 50,97235.63%89,70462.71%2,3711.66%-38,732-27.08%143,047
Baker 11,91184.58%2,03714.47%1340.95%9,87470.11%14,082
Bay 66,09770.91%25,61427.48%1,5021.61%40,48343.43%93,213
Bradford 10,33475.71%3,16023.15%1561.14%7,17452.56%13,650
Brevard 207,88357.48%148,54941.08%5,2211.44%59,33416.40%361,653
Broward 333,40934.74%618,75264.48%7,4790.78%-285,343-29.74%959,640
Calhoun 5,27480.68%1,20918.49%540.83%4,06562.19%6,537
Charlotte 73,24362.84%42,27336.27%1,0420.89%30,97026.57%116,558
Citrus 65,35269.98%27,09229.01%9441.01%38,26040.97%93,388
Clay 84,48067.77%38,31730.74%1,8631.49%46,16337.03%124,660
Collier 128,95061.91%77,62137.27%1,7140.82%51,32924.64%208,285
Columbia 23,83672.03%8,91426.94%3421.03%14,82245.09%33,092
DeSoto 8,31365.58%4,25933.60%1040.82%4,05431.98%12,676
Dixie 6,75982.70%1,36516.70%490.60%5,39466.00%8,173
Duval 233,76247.30%252,55651.11%7,8431.59%-18,794-3.81%494,161
Escambia 96,67456.58%70,92941.51%3,2531.91%25,74515.07%170,856
Flagler 43,04359.90%28,16139.19%6590.91%14,88220.71%71,863
Franklin 4,67568.16%2,12030.91%640.93%2,55537.25%6,859
Gadsden 7,46531.42%16,15367.98%1440.60%-8,688-36.56%23,762
Gilchrist 7,89581.37%1,70017.52%1071.11%6,19563.85%9,702
Glades 3,78272.69%1,38526.62%360.69%2,39746.07%5,203
Gulf 6,11374.80%1,98524.29%740.91%4,12850.51%8,172
Hamilton 3,81565.33%1,96333.61%621.06%1,85231.72%5,840
Hardee 6,12272.01%2,29827.03%820.96%3,82444.98%8,502
Hendry 7,90661.02%4,92938.04%1210.94%2,97722.98%12,956
Hernando 70,41264.51%37,51934.37%1,2191.12%32,89330.14%109,150
Highlands 34,87366.75%16,93832.42%4320.83%17,93534.33%52,243
Hillsborough 327,39845.85%376,36752.71%10,3031.44%-48,969-6.86%714,068
Holmes 8,08089.01%92410.18%740.81%7,15678.83%9,078
Indian River 58,87260.23%37,84438.72%1,0241.05%21,02821.51%97,740
Jackson 15,48868.97%6,76630.13%2020.90%8,72238.84%22,456
Jefferson 4,47952.89%3,89746.02%921.09%3826.87%8,468
Lafayette 3,12885.42%51013.93%240.65%2,61871.49%3,662
Lake 125,85959.56%83,50539.52%1,9500.92%42,35420.04%211,314
Lee 233,24759.09%157,69539.95%3,8160.96%75,55219.14%394,758
Leon 57,45335.14%103,51763.32%2,5061.54%-46,064-28.18%163,476
Levy 16,74972.24%6,20526.76%2311.00%10,54445.48%23,185
Liberty 2,84679.83%69419.47%250.70%2,15260.36%3,565
Madison 5,57659.36%3,74739.89%700.75%1,82919.47%9,393
Manatee 124,98757.47%90,16641.46%2,3191.07%34,82116.01%217,472
Marion 127,82662.44%74,85836.57%2,0320.99%52,96825.87%204,716
Martin 61,16861.82%36,89337.29%8810.89%24,27524.53%98,942
Miami-Dade 532,83345.98%617,86453.31%8,2210.71%-85,931-7.33%1,158,918
Monroe 25,69353.38%21,88145.46%5611.16%3,8127.92%48,135
Nassau 42,56672.25%15,56426.42%7851.33%27,00245.83%58,915
Okaloosa 79,79868.35%34,24829.34%2,6972.31%45,55039.01%116,743
Okeechobee 11,47071.76%4,39027.46%1240.78%7,08044.30%15,984
Orange 245,39837.80%395,01460.85%8,7451.35%-149,616-23.05%649,157
Osceola 73,48042.53%97,29756.31%2,0071.16%-23,817-13.78%172,784
Palm Beach 334,71143.21%433,57255.97%6,3140.82%-98,861-12.76%774,597
Pasco 179,62159.36%119,07339.35%3,9271.29%60,54820.01%302,621
Pinellas 276,20949.22%277,45049.44%7,5021.34%-1,241-0.22%561,161
Polk 194,58656.56%145,04942.16%4,3911.28%49,53714.40%344,026
Putnam 25,51470.05%10,52728.90%3811.05%14,98741.15%36,422
St. Johns 110,94662.66%63,85036.06%2,2511.28%47,09626.60%177,047
St. Lucie 86,83150.38%84,13748.82%1,3810.80%2,6941.56%172,349
Santa Rosa 77,38572.19%27,61225.76%2,2012.05%49,77346.43%107,198
Sarasota 148,37054.71%120,11044.29%2,6891.00%28,26010.42%271,169
Seminole 125,24147.89%132,52850.67%3,7641.44%-7,287-2.78%261,533
Sumter 62,76167.76%29,34131.68%5220.56%33,42036.08%92,624
Suwannee 16,41077.84%4,48521.27%1880.89%11,92556.57%21,083
Taylor 7,75176.45%2,29922.68%880.87%5,45253.77%10,138
Union 5,13382.11%1,05316.85%651.04%4,08065.26%6,251
Volusia 173,82156.42%130,57542.38%3,7131.20%43,24614.04%308,109
Wakulla 12,87469.79%5,35129.01%2231.20%7,52340.78%18,448
Walton 32,94775.23%10,33823.61%5101.16%22,60951.62%43,795
Washington 9,87680.06%2,34719.03%1120.91%7,52961.03%12,335
Totals5,668,73151.11%5,297,04547.75%126,4451.14%371,6863.36%11,092,221
Florida County Swing 2020.svg
Florida County Trend 2020.svg
Florida County Flips 2020.svg

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Trump won 15 of 27 congressional districts, while Biden won 12, including one that elected a Republican. [182]

DistrictTrumpBidenRepresentative
1st 65.9%32.4% Matt Gaetz
2nd 67%32% Neal Dunn
3rd 56%42.8% Ted Yoho
Kat Cammack
4th 59.9%38.9% John Rutherford
5th 36.2%62.7% Al Lawson
6th 58.3%40.8% Michael Waltz
7th 44.2%54.6% Stephanie Murphy
8th 58.3%40.6% Bill Posey
9th 46%52.9% Darren Soto
10th 37%62% Val Demings
11th 65.4%33.8% Daniel Webster
12th 57.9%41% Gus Bilirakis
13th 47.4%51.5% Charlie Crist
14th 41.6%57.2% Kathy Castor
15th 53.7%45.2% Ross Spano
Scott Franklin
16th 53.6%45.5% Vern Buchanan
17th 63.3%35.9% Greg Steube
18th 53.9%45.5% Brian Mast
19th 59.7%39.6% Francis Rooney
Byron Donalds
20th 22.1%77.3% Alcee Hastings
21st 41.2%58.2% Lois Frankel
22nd 42.3%57.2% Ted Deutch
23rd 41.2%58.3% Debbie Wasserman Schultz
24th 24%75.4% Frederica Wilson
25th 61.2%38.2% Mario Díaz-Balart
26th 52.5%46.9% Debbie Mucarsel-Powell
Carlos Giménez
27th 48.1%51.3% Donna Shalala
Maria Elvira Salazar

Analysis

This election was the first time since 1992, and only the second time since 1960, that Florida went to the losing candidate in a presidential election. It was also the first time since 1960 that both Ohio and Florida have voted for the losing candidate in a presidential election, the first time since 1992 that Florida voted Republican while neighboring Georgia voted Democratic, and the first time since 1992 that Florida voted more Republican than North Carolina. Trump also became the first Republican candidate to win Florida with a majority of the state's popular vote since George W. Bush did so in 2004. [183]

Despite his loss statewide, Biden became the first Democrat to win Duval County—consolidated with Jacksonville—since Southerner Jimmy Carter in 1976, and the first Democrat to win Seminole County since Harry Truman in 1948. [184] [185] Biden also flipped Pinellas County back to the Democratic Party. Biden became the first Democrat to win the presidency without carrying Jefferson County since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964, and the first Democrat to win the presidency without carrying Monroe County since Grover Cleveland in 1884. [186]

Also, this is the first time since 1888 that Florida increased its margin to an incumbent that lost re-election nationally. Florida was one of six states where Trump received a higher percentage of the vote than he did in 2016. [cd] Florida is one of three states that voted twice for both Barack Obama and Trump, the other two being Ohio and Iowa.

Ex-felons

The United States Court of Appeals for the 11th Circuit, located in Atlanta, ruled that ex-felons could not vote in Florida unless they pay fines and fees. Florida voters approved amendment 4 in November 2018, which restored voting for felons upon completion of all terms of sentence including parole or probation, except for those who committed murders or were involved in sex crimes. [187] The Republican-controlled legislature then passed a law which required ex-felons to settle their financial obligation in courts. The United States District Court in Tallahassee ruled against it in May, but the circuit court overturned it in September, which was speculated to have created further problems for ex-felons when they voted in November. Civil rights organizations including American Civil Liberties Union opposed the decision by the court. [188]

Miami-Dade County

In Miami-Dade County, the majority of Trump support came from the west and the majority of Biden support came from the east. People of Mexican, Haitian, and African descent tended to vote for Biden, while people of Cuban, Chilean and Colombian descent did so for Trump, as well as the critical Venezuelan vote swinging Republican. [189] Trump won approximately two thirds of the vote in Hialeah, whereas it was nearly evenly split four years prior. [190] Due to the heavy presence of the Cuban-American community, Hialeah traditionally, as of 2020, leaned towards Republican politics. [191] Trump's coattails played a role in the election of Miami Republicans Carlos A. Giménez and Maria Elvira Salazar to the House of Representatives.

Residents of Cuban descent often had an antagonism against leftist movements due to associations with Fidel Castro. [192] Trump sought to attract these voters by implementing anti-Cuba policies. [193]

Additionally, Trump made efforts to target other Hispanic demographics. Trump significantly increased his share of the vote in majority-Hispanic Osceola County, winning 42.53% of the vote, the highest since 2004. [190]

Edison exit polls

2020 presidential election in Florida by demographic subgroup (Edison exit polling) [194] [195]
Demographic subgroupBidenTrump% of

total vote

Total vote47.8651.22100
Ideology
Liberals 831619
Moderates 594042
Conservatives 168339
Party
Democrats 94530
Republicans 79338
Independents 544332
Gender
Men455445
Women514855
Race/ethnicity
White 376262
Black 891014
Latino 534619
Asian ––1
Other55443
Age
18–24 years old57427
25–29 years old64356
30–39 years old485013
40–49 years old485113
50–64 years old455428
65 and older455532
Sexual orientation
LGBT 83156
Not LGBT465394
Education
High school or less445619
Some college education504925
Associate degree 455320
Bachelor's degree 495022
Postgraduate degree534514
Issue regarded as most important
Racial inequality 861213
Coronavirus 881018
Economy 138738
Crime and safety128810
Health care 831613
Region
North/Panhandle 415818
Orlando/Central Atlantic514819
Tampa Bay area 485116
Gulf Coast/Mid-Florida396020
Miami/Gold Coast 584127
Area type
Urban554441
Suburban445550
Rural38619
Family's financial situation today
Better than four years ago188144
Worse than four years ago841519
About the same673236

See also

Notes

  1. ↑ The other five states were Arkansas, California, Hawaii, Nevada, and Utah.
  2. 1 2 Candidate withdrew after Super Tuesday when early voting had begun in a few counties.
  3. ↑ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  4. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  5. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  6. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 "Someone else" with 1%
  7. ↑ Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  8. ↑ "Refused/would not vote" with 2%; "Another candidate" with 0%
  9. ↑ "Other candidate or write-in" with 0%
  10. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Standard VI response
  11. ↑ West (B) with 1%; "Some other candidate" and would not vote with 0%
  12. 1 2 3 4 If only Biden, Trump and "some other candidate" were available
  13. 1 2 "Some other candidate" with 2%; would not vote with 0%
  14. ↑ Results considering those who lean towards a given candidate among those initially predisposed towards abstention, indecision or a candidate besides Biden or Trump in the response section immediately above
  15. 1 2 3 4 "Some other candidate" with 2%
  16. ↑ "Someone else" with 3%
  17. 1 2 "Someone else" and would not vote with 0%
  18. 1 2 3 4 5 Includes "Refused"
  19. 1 2 3 Results generated with high Democratic turnout model
  20. 1 2 3 Results generated with high Republican turnout model
  21. ↑ "Not sure/Someone else/Undecided" with 2%
  22. ↑ "None of these" and "Other" with 0%; would not vote with no voters
  23. ↑ "Other candidate" with 1%; "No one" with 0%
  24. ↑ With a likely voter turnout model featuring high turnout
  25. ↑ With a likely voter turnout model featuring low turnout
  26. 1 2 "Some other candidate" and West (B) with 1%; would not vote with 0%
  27. ↑ "Some other candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 0%
  28. 1 2 3 "Someone else" with 2%
  29. ↑ "Refused/would not vote" with 2%; "Another candidate" with 1%
  30. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Not yet released
  31. ↑ "Refused" with 3%
  32. ↑ "Other third party" with 2%
  33. 1 2 3 "Third party" with 2%
  34. 1 2 3 "Some other candidate" with 1%
  35. ↑ "Some other candidate" with 3%
  36. 1 2 3 "Some other candidate" with 1%; would not vote with 0%
  37. ↑ "Other" and "None of these" with 0%
  38. ↑ "Some other candidate" with 2%; West (B) and would not vote with 0%
  39. ↑ "Third party" with 1%
  40. ↑ With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  41. ↑ "One of the other party or independent tickets" with 1%
  42. 1 2 3 "Someone else" with 4%
  43. ↑ Under a +2 Democratic turnout model
  44. ↑ Under a conservative +2 Republican turnout model
  45. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 1%
  46. ↑ No voters
  47. ↑ "Refused" with 2%; La Riva (PSOL) with 1%; Blankenship (C), Fuente (A) and "other" with no voters
  48. ↑ With the preferences of La Riva and Jorgensen voters in an election featuring only Biden and Trump
  49. ↑ "Refused" with 2%; "Other" with 0%
  50. ↑ "Neither" with 1%; "other" and would not vote with no voters
  51. ↑ "Someone else/third party" with 1%
  52. ↑ "No one" with 1%
  53. ↑ With a likely voter turnout model featuring higher turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
  54. 1 2 "Other" with 1%
  55. ↑ With a likely voter turnout model featuring lower turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
  56. ↑ "Someone else" with 2%; "Refused" and would not vote with 1%
  57. ↑ "Someone else" with 0%
  58. ↑ Would not vote with 2%
  59. 1 2 3 Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  60. ↑ "Other/not sure" with 4%
  61. ↑ "Another Party Candidate" with 1%
  62. ↑ "Refused" with 1%
  63. ↑ "Other" and "Neither" 1%
  64. ↑ "Someone else" with 4%; would not vote with 2%
  65. ↑ "Third-party candidate" with 2%
  66. ↑ "Someone else/third party" with 2%; would not vote with 0%
  67. ↑ "Other party candidate" with 5%
  68. ↑ "Other" with 4%; would not vote with 2%
  69. ↑ "Another candidate" and would not vote with 2%
  70. ↑ "Libertarian Party candidate/Green Party candidate" with 3%
  71. ↑ "Other" with 3%; "prefer not to answer" with 1%
  72. ↑ "Third party candidate" with 3.3%
  73. ↑ "Third party" with 2.7%
  74. ↑ "Libertarian nominee" with 1.2%
  75. ↑ "Green nominee" with 0.4%
  76. ↑ "Third party/write-in" with 3%
  77. 1 2 Would not vote with 6%
  78. ↑ Would not vote with 7%
  79. 1 2 3 Would not vote with 8%
  80. ↑ "Would definitely not vote for Trump" with 51%
  81. ↑ "Consider voting for Trump" with 14%; "don't know/no answer" with 4%
  82. ↑ The other five states were Arkansas, California, Hawaii, Nevada, and Utah, as well as Washington DC.

Partisan clients

  1. 1 2 3 4 The Center for American Greatness is a pro-Trump organization
  2. ↑ Compete Everywhere primarily supports Democratic candidates
  3. ↑ Climate Power 2020 was created by the League of Conservation Voters, which endorsed Biden prior to the sampling period
  4. ↑ Poll sponsored by the Defend Students Action Fund.
  5. ↑ The Human Rights Campaign endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period
  6. ↑ The Consumer Energy Alliance is a pro-Keystone XL lobbying group
  7. ↑ Heritage Action is the sister organisation of the Heritage Foundation, which exclusively endorses Republican candidates
  8. 1 2 3 4 Poll sponsored by the Florida Chamber of Commerce PAC
  9. ↑ Poll sponsored by the League of Conservation Voters

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