2020 Washington gubernatorial election

Last updated

2020 Washington gubernatorial election
Flag of Washington.svg
  2016 November 3, 2020 2024  
  U.S. Department of the Interior, Columbia River Salmon Agreement Ceremonial Event, Washington DC on 23 February 2024 - 62 (cropped).jpg Loren Culp.png
Nominee Jay Inslee Loren Culp
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote2,294,2431,749,066
Percentage56.56%43.12%

2020 Washington gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
WA-2020-gov-districts.svg
WA Governor 2020.svg
Inslee:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Culp:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tie:     40–50%     50%     No data

Governor before election

Jay Inslee
Democratic

Elected Governor

Jay Inslee
Democratic

The 2020 Washington gubernatorial election was held on November 3, 2020. It followed a top-two primary held on August 4. Incumbent governor Jay Inslee, the Democratic candidate, defeated Loren Culp, the Republican candidate by a wide margin. Inslee, who was eligible to run for a third term due to the lack of gubernatorial term limits, [1] initially launched a campaign for president of the United States in the 2020 election. When he dropped out of that race in August 2019 due to extremely low polling numbers, [2] he announced he would seek a third term as governor. [3] Several other Democratic political figures considered entering the race if Inslee did not run, including Washington Attorney General Bob Ferguson; no other major Democratic candidates entered the race. [4] Republican Loren Culp, the police chief of Republic, Washington, placed second in the top-two primary and advanced to the general election alongside Inslee.

Contents

The election was clear and decisive, with incumbent Jay Inslee winning re-election over Loren Culp by over 13 points. This marked the largest margin of victory in a Washington gubernatorial race since Gary Locke won reelection in 2000. Inslee's landslide victory included over 74% of the vote in King County, the highest ever for a Democrat in the county's history. King County, home to Seattle, has about a third of the state's voters. [5] [6] In addition, this was the first time since 2000 that a Democrat won a county in Eastern Washington with Inslee winning Whitman County. [7] Culp still ran ahead of the top-ticket presidential candidate, Donald Trump, by about 4 points.

Despite the margin of victory, Culp refused to concede and filed a lawsuit against Republican Washington Secretary of State Kim Wyman five weeks after the election. [8] He did not give a concession speech, while making claims of irregularities which Wyman characterized as "unsubstantiated". [9] Culp's actions drew criticism and were compared to Donald Trump's refusal to concede the 2020 U.S. presidential election. [10]

This election marked the 10th consecutive election victory of the Democratic candidate for governor of Washington.

Background

Washington had not had a Republican governor since John Spellman left office in 1985, the longest streak of Democratic leadership of any state in the country and the third longest streak of one-party leadership after South Dakota (which had not had a Democratic governor since Harvey L. Wollman left office in 1979) and Utah (which had not had a Democratic governor since Scott M. Matheson left office nine days prior to Spellman in 1985). [11] [12] [13] Incumbent Governor Jay Inslee, who previously served in the U.S. House, was first elected to the governorship in the 2012 election and won reelection in 2016.

When Inslee announced his candidacy for president, several political figures expressed interest in running for Governor if Inslee won the Democratic primaries. These included Attorney General Bob Ferguson, Commissioner of Public Lands Hilary Franz and King County executive Dow Constantine. [14] They stated they would only run if Inslee did not, avoiding a primary challenge. [15] [16]

Several Republican politicians announced their own campaigns to challenge Inslee, including businessman Anton Sakharov, Republic police chief Loren Culp, and state senator Phil Fortunato. [17] [18] [19] However, speculated candidates such as former U.S. Representative Dave Reichert, former Seattle Port Commissioner and 2016 gubernatorial nominee Bill Bryant, Pierce County Executive and former state senator Bruce Dammeier, and state House Minority Leader J. T. Wilcox, all declined to be candidates, leaving no prominent Republicans to challenge Inslee, which was seen as a necessary prerequisite to mount a formidable challenge to him.

Primary election

Washington is one of two states that holds a top-two primary, meaning that all candidates are listed on the same ballot regardless of party affiliation, and the top two move on to the general election. Most states have party primaries.

Democratic candidates

Advanced to the general election

Declined

Republican candidates

Advanced to the general election

  • Loren Culp, police chief of Republic, U.S. Army veteran [18]

Eliminated in the primary

Declined

Green Party

Eliminated in the primary

Independents

Eliminated in the primary

  • Cregan Newhouse, City of Seattle Consumer Protection Division acting manager and former public television director [36]

Withdrew

  • Asa Palagi, U.S. Army officer and businessman [37]

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Jay
Inslee (D)
Loren
Culp (R)
Tim
Eyman (R)
Phil
Fortunato (R)
Joshua
Freed (R)
Raul
Garcia (R)
Anton
Sakharov (R)
Other /
Undecided
SurveyUSA [38] July 22–27, 2020513 (LV)± 5.4%55%9%8%3%6%4%16% [b]
Crosscut/Elway [39] July 11–15, 2020402 (RV)± 5.0%46%14%4%2%5%6%25% [c]
SurveyUSA [40] May 16–19, 2020650 (LV)± 5.6%50%4%8%6%6%2%1%23% [d]
SurveyUSA [41] January 26–28, 20201,103 (RV)± 3.9%39%5%11%4%4%3%34% [e]
Crosscut/Elway [42] December 26–29, 2019405 (RV)± 5%46%4%7% [f] 4%5%34% [g]
Hypothetical polling

with Bryant, Constantine, Ferguson, and Franz

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [h]
Margin
of error
Bill
Bryant (R)
Dow
Constantine (D)
Bob
Ferguson (D)
Hilary
Franz (D)
Undecided
Chism Strategies (D) [43] March 8–10, 2019400 (LV)± 4.9%46%6%25%2%21%

Results

Results by county:
.mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{}
Inslee
30-40%
40-50%
50-60%
60-70%
70-80%
Culp
Culp--30-40%
Culp--40-50%
Culp--50-60%
Garcia
30-40% 2020WAGOVprimary.svg
Results by county:
  Inslee
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  Culp
  •   Culp—30–40%
  •   Culp—40–50%
  •   Culp—50–60%
  Garcia
  •   30–40%
Top-two primary election results [44]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Jay Inslee (incumbent) 1,247,916 50.14%
Republican Loren Culp 433,238 17.41%
Republican Joshua Freed222,5538.94%
Republican Tim Eyman 159,4956.41%
Republican Raul Garcia135,0455.43%
Republican Phil Fortunato 99,2653.99%
Democratic Don L. Rivers25,6011.03%
Trump Republican PartyLeon Lawson23,0730.93%
Green Liz Hallock21,5370.87%
Democratic Cairo D'Almeida14,6570.59%
Trump Republican PartyAnton Sakharov13,9350.56%
Pre2016 Republican PartyNate Herzog11,3030.45%
Democratic Gene Hart10,6050.43%
Democratic Omari Tahir Garrett8,7510.35%
Unaffiliated PartyRyan Ryals6,2640.25%
Socialist Workers Henry Clay Dennison5,9700.24%
Trump Republican Party Goodspaceguy 5,6460.23%
Republican Richard L. Carpenter4,9620.2%
Independent Elaina J. Gonzales4,7720.19%
Republican Matthew Murray4,4890.18%
Independent Thor Amundson3,6380.15%
Republican Bill Hirt2,8540.11%
Republican Martin L. Wheeler2,6860.11%
Republican Ian Gonzales2,5370.1%
New-Liberty PartyJoshua Wolf2,3150.09%
No Party PreferenceCregan M. Newhouse2,2910.09%
No Party PreferenceBrian R. Weed2,1780.09%
StandupAmerica PartyAlex Tsimerman1,7210.07%
Republican Tylor Grow1,5090.06%
Independent Dylan B. Nails1,4700.06%
Independent Craig Campbell1,1780.05%
American Patriot PartyWilliam Miller1,1480.05%
No Party PreferenceCameron M. Vessey7180.03%
Propertarianist PartyWinston Wilkes7020.03%
Fifth Republic PartyDavid W. Blomstrom5190.02%
Cascadia Labour PartyDavid Voltz4800.02%
Write-in 1,9380.08%
Total votes2,488,959 100%

General election

Debates

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [45] Safe DOctober 23, 2020
Inside Elections [46] Safe DOctober 28, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball [47] Safe DNovember 2, 2020
Politico [48] Safe DNovember 2, 2020
Daily Kos [49] Safe DOctober 28, 2020
RCP [50] Safe DNovember 2, 2020
270towin [51] Safe DNovember 2, 2020

Endorsements

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Jay
Inslee (D)
Loren
Culp (R)
Undecided
Swayable [64] October 23 – November 1, 2020474 (LV)± 6%59%41%
Public Policy Polling (D) [65] [A] October 14–15, 2020615 (LV)± 4%56%40%4%
SurveyUSA [66] October 8–10, 2020591 (LV)± 5.2%54%40%6%
Strategies 360 [67] September 8–14, 2020501 (RV)± 4.4%53%37%9% [i]
SurveyUSA [68] July 22–27, 2020534 (LV)± 5.2%61%32%7%
SurveyUSA [69] May 16–19, 2020530 (LV)± 5.4%56%31%13%
Hypothetical polling

Jay Inslee vs. Tim Eyman

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Jay
Inslee (D)
Tim
Eyman (R)
Undecided
SurveyUSA [68] July 22–27, 2020534 (LV)± 5.2%62%31%7%
SurveyUSA [69] May 16–19, 2020530 (LV)± 5.4%60%31%9%

Jay Inslee vs. Phil Fortunato

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Jay
Inslee (D)
Phil
Fortunato (R)
Undecided
SurveyUSA [68] July 22–27, 2020534 (LV)± 5.2%61%32%8%
SurveyUSA [69] May 16–19, 2020530 (LV)± 5.4%56%34%10%

Jay Inslee vs. Joshua Freed

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Jay
Inslee (D)
Joshua
Freed (R)
Undecided
SurveyUSA [68] July 22–27, 2020534 (LV)± 5.2%60%31%9%
SurveyUSA [69] May 16–19, 2020530 (LV)± 5.4%57%30%13%

Jay Inslee vs. Raul Garcia

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Jay
Inslee (D)
Raul
Garcia (R)
Undecided
SurveyUSA [68] July 22–27, 2020534 (LV)± 5.2%60%32%8%

Results

2020 Washington gubernatorial election [70]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Jay Inslee (incumbent) 2,294,243 56.56% +2.31%
Republican Loren Culp1,749,06643.12%−2.37%
Write-in 13,1450.32%+0.06%
Total votes4,056,454 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold

By county

County results
County [71] Jay Inslee

Democratic

Loren Culp

Republican

Write-in

Various

MarginTotal votes
#%#%#%#%
Adams 1,65528.34%4,17071.40%150.26%-2,515-43.06%5,840
Asotin 4,21235.49%7,62764.26%300.25%-3,415-28.77%11,869
Benton 36,93936.03%65,17063.57%4100.40%-28,231-27.54%102,519
Chelan 17,92241.63%24,93657.93%1880.44%-7,014-16.30%43,046
Clallam 24,36649.64%24,64050.20%820.17%-274-0.56%49,088
Clark 138,19650.83%132,96448.91%7150.26%5,2321.92%271,895
Columbia 65226.34%1,81973.49%40.16%-1,167-47.15%2,475
Cowlitz 22,21337.11%37,45362.57%1930.32%-15,240-25.46%59,859
Douglas 7,17633.81%13,95865.77%900.42%-6,782-31.96%21,224
Ferry 1,34530.79%3,00068.68%230.53%-1,655-37.89%4,368
Franklin 12,80339.53%19,48860.17%960.30%-6,685-20.64%32,387
Garfield 34923.61%1,11875.64%110.74%-789-52.03%1,478
Grant 10,77228.71%26,64571.00%1090.29%-15,873-42.29%37,526
Grays Harbor 16,50243.08%21,68656.61%1190.31%-5,184-13.53%38,307
Island 28,23952.75%25,14546.97%1530.29%3,0945.78%53,537
Jefferson 16,99268.79%7,65130.97%590.24%9,34137.82%24,702
King 887,37474.07%307,02225.63%3,6530.30%580,35248.44%1,198,049
Kitsap 87,76655.69%69,28843.97%5300.34%18,47811.72%157,584
Kittitas 10,52940.21%15,56759.45%870.33%-5,038-19.24%26,183
Klickitat 5,69342.31%7,73557.49%270.20%-2,042-15.18%13,455
Lewis 13,82130.54%31,30669.19%1220.27%-17,485-38.65%45,249
Lincoln 1,52621.79%5,45077.83%260.37%-3,924-56.04%7,002
Mason 16,50244.40%20,56255.32%1040.28%-4,060-10.92%37,168
Okanogan 8,29839.15%12,84360.59%540.25%-4,545-21.44%21,195
Pacific 6,51446.47%7,46353.24%410.29%-949-6.77%14,018
Pend Oreille 2,51329.55%5,95970.08%310.36%-3,446-40.53%8,503
Pierce 238,09751.68%220,90447.95%1,7300.38%17,1933.73%460,731
San Juan 9,62173.39%3,46526.43%230.18%6,15646.96%13,109
Skagit 36,44449.87%36,40449.81%2310.32%400.06%73,079
Skamania 3,12943.10%4,11656.69%150.21%-987-13.59%7,260
Snohomish 244,87656.13%189,79743.50%1,6070.37%55,07912.63%436,280
Spokane 131,73444.82%161,13854.82%1,0530.36%-29,404-10.00%293,925
Stevens 7,39326.06%20,90273.67%760.27%-13,509-47.61%28,371
Thurston 93,72356.19%72,50643.47%5710.34%21,21712.72%166,890
Wahkiakum 1,10237.10%1,86262.69%60.20%-760-25.59%2,970
Walla Walla 13,30542.93%17,59056.76%940.30%-4,285-13.83%30,989
Whatcom 81,99259.44%55,54440.27%3990.29%26,44819.17%137,935
Whitman 10,80651.62%10,05648.04%720.34%7503.58%20,934
Yakima 41,15243.07%54,09756.62%2960.31%-12,945-13.55%95,545
Totals2,294,24356.56%1,749,06643.12%13,1450.32%545,17713.44%4,056,454

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Inslee won six of 10 congressional districts, with the remaining four going to Culp, including one that elected a Democrat. [72]

DistrictInsleeCulpRepresentative
1st 56.43%43.2% Suzan DelBene
2nd 60.12%39.55% Rick Larsen
3rd 45.75%53.98% Jaime Herrera Beutler
4th 37.48%62.18% Dan Newhouse
5th 42.54%57.11% Cathy McMorris Rodgers
6th 55.66%44.02% Derek Kilmer
7th 84.56%15.16% Pramila Jayapal
8th 49.11%50.55% Kim Schrier
9th 72.73%26.97% Adam Smith
10th 54.25%45.38% Denny Heck (116th Congress)
Marilyn Strickland (117th Congress)

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. "Some other candidate" with 4%; Undecided with 12%
  3. "Other" with 1%; Undecided with 24%
  4. Undecided with 23%
  5. Undecided with 34%
  6. Listed as an independent.
  7. Undecided with 34%
  8. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  9. Includes "Refused"
  1. This poll was sponsored by the Northwest Progressive Institute

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