2020 United States presidential election in Michigan

Last updated

2020 United States presidential election in Michigan
Flag of Michigan.svg
  2016 November 3, 2020 2024  
Turnout71%Increase2.svg [1]
  Joe Biden presidential portrait (cropped).jpg Donald Trump official portrait (cropped).jpg
Nominee Joe Biden Donald Trump
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Delaware Florida
Running mate Kamala Harris Mike Pence
Electoral vote160
Popular vote2,804,0402,649,852
Percentage50.62%47.84%

Michigan Presidential Election Results 2020.svg
MI-20-pres-districts.svg
Michigan Presidential Results 2020 by Municipality.svg
MI President 2020.svg

President before election

Donald Trump
Republican

Elected President

Joe Biden
Democratic

The 2020 United States presidential election in Michigan was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. [2] Michigan voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump of Florida, and his running mate, Vice President Mike Pence of Indiana against the Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden of Delaware, and his running mate, Senator Kamala Harris of California. Michigan had 16 electoral votes in the Electoral College. [3]

Contents

In 2016, Trump became the first Republican to carry Michigan since 1988, when George H. W. Bush had scored a decisive nationwide win against Michael Dukakis. [4] Throughout the campaign, Biden touted his work on the auto bailout in manufacturing towns outside Detroit. Appearing with United Auto Workers, Biden presented a new proposal to penalize American companies for moving manufacturing and service jobs overseas and then selling their products back in the United States. [5] Polls of Michigan throughout the campaign generally indicated a clear Biden lead. Prior to election day, most news organizations considered Michigan a likely blue state, or a state that Biden was likely to win.

Biden ultimately carried Michigan by 2.78%, a far closer margin than expected. Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Biden's strength in Michigan came from union households, who composed 21% of the electorate and supported Biden by 56%–42%. Biden was also able to boost minority turnout, consequently winning 93% of Black American voters. [6] Many voters were also concerned with the COVID-19 pandemic, which had hit the state hard; 52% of voters felt the pandemic was not under control at all, and these voters broke for Biden by 82%–16%. Trump outperformed his polling average in the state, but it was not enough to win. Michigan marked Biden's strongest performance in a state won by Trump in 2016, even voting to the left of Nevada which Trump lost in 2016.

Biden flipped the counties of Leelanau, Kent, and Saginaw and became the first Democrat since Woodrow Wilson in 1916 to win the presidency without winning Bay or Gogebic Counties, the first Democrat since Harry S. Truman in 1948 to win without Monroe County, the first Democrat since John F. Kennedy in 1960 to win without Lake County and the first Democrat since Jimmy Carter in 1976 to win without Calhoun, Isabella, Manistee, Shiawassee, or Van Buren Counties.

With Ohio, Florida, and Iowa backing the losing candidate for the first time since 1960, 1992, and 2000 respectively, this election established Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania as the states with the longest bellwether streak still in effect today. The last time any of them voted against the winning candidate was 2004, when all three voted for losing Democrat John Kerry.

Michigan's overall vote in for this election was 1.7% more Republican than the nation-at-large.

Primary elections

The primary elections were held on March 10, 2020.

Republican primary

Incumbent United States President Donald Trump was challenged by three candidates: former governor Mark Sanford of South Carolina, former congressman Joe Walsh of Illinois, and former governor Bill Weld of Massachusetts. Sanford and Walsh both withdrew prior to the primary. Michigan is the only primary state where Sanford's name remained on the ballot. [7]

2020 Michigan Republican primary [8]
CandidateVotes %Estimated
delegates
Donald Trump (incumbent)640,55293.7%73
Uncommitted32,7434.8%0
Bill Weld 6,0990.9%0
Mark Sanford (withdrawn)4,2580.6%0
Joe Walsh (withdrawn)4,0670.6%0
Total683,431100%73

Democratic primary

Bernie Sanders and former Vice President Joe Biden were the two major declared Democratic candidates. [9]

Results by county
Biden--40-50%
Biden--50-60%
Biden--60-70% MI President Democratic Primary 2020.svg
Results by county
  Biden—40–50%
  Biden—50–60%
  Biden—60–70%

2020 Michigan Democratic presidential primary [10]
CandidateVotes %Delegates [11]
Joe Biden 840,36052.9373
Bernie Sanders 576,92636.3452
Michael Bloomberg (withdrawn) [lower-alpha 1] 73,4644.63
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn) [lower-alpha 1] 26,1481.65
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn) [lower-alpha 2] 22,4621.41
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn) [lower-alpha 2] 11,0180.69
Tulsi Gabbard 9,4610.60
Andrew Yang (withdrawn) [lower-alpha 3] 2,3800.15
Tom Steyer (withdrawn) [lower-alpha 2] 1,7320.11
Michael Bennet (withdrawn) [lower-alpha 3] 1,5360.10
Cory Booker (withdrawn)8400.05
Joe Sestak (withdrawn)7570.05
Marianne Williamson (withdrawn)7190.05
John Delaney (withdrawn) [lower-alpha 4] 4640.03
Julian Castro (withdrawn)3060.02
Uncommitted19,1061.20
Total1,587,679100%125

General election

Final predictions

SourceRanking
The Cook Political Report [12] Lean D (flip)
Inside Elections [13] Lean D (flip)
Sabato's Crystal Ball [14] Lean D (flip)
Politico [15] Lean D (flip)
RCP [16] Tossup
Niskanen [17] Likely D (flip)
CNN [18] Lean D (flip)
The Economist [19] Likely D (flip)
CBS News [20] Lean D (flip)
270towin [21] Lean D (flip)
ABC News [22] Lean D (flip)
NPR [23] Lean D (flip)
NBC News [24] Lean D (flip)
538 [25] Solid D (flip)

Polling

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Donald
Trump

Republican
Other/
Undecided
[lower-alpha 5]
Margin
270 to Win [26] October 22 – November 2, 2020November 3, 202049.9%44.4%5.7%
Real Clear Politics [27] October 29 – November 1, 2020November 3, 202050.0%45.8%4.2%
FiveThirtyEight [28] until November 1, 2020November 3, 202051.2%43.2%5.6%
Average50.4%44.5%5.1%Biden +5.9

2020 polls

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 6]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump

Republican
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Jo
Jorgensen

Libertarian
Howie
Hawkins

Green
Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios [29] Oct 20 – Nov 24,549 (LV)± 2%46% [lower-alpha 7] 52%--
Research Co. [30] Oct 31 – Nov 1450 (LV)± 4.6%43%50%--2% [lower-alpha 8] 5%
Change Research/CNBC [31] Oct 29 – Nov 1383 (LV)± 5.01%44%51%3%1%1%
Swayable [32] Oct 27 – Nov 1413 (LV)± 6.5%45%54%1%0%
Ipsos/Reuters [33] Oct 27 – Nov 1654 (LV)± 4.4%43% [lower-alpha 9] 53%1%0%2% [lower-alpha 10]
42% [lower-alpha 11] 52%--3% [lower-alpha 12] 3%
45% [lower-alpha 13] 53%--2% [lower-alpha 14]
Trafalgar Group [34] Oct 30–311,033 (LV)± 2.97%48%46%2%-1%3%
AtlasIntel [35] Oct 30–31686 (LV)± 4%46%48%--6%
Insider Advantage/Center for American Greatness [36] [upper-alpha 1] Oct 30–31500 (LV)± 4.4%47%49%2%-3%
Morning Consult [37] Oct 22–311,736 (LV)± 2.0%44.5%52%--
Emerson College [38] Oct 29–30700 (LV)± 3.4%45% [lower-alpha 15] 52%--3% [lower-alpha 16]
Public Policy Polling/Progress Michigan [39] [upper-alpha 2] Oct 29–30745 (V)± 3.6%44%54%1%0%1%
Targoz Market Research/PollSmart [40] Oct 25–30993 (LV)39%53%--8% [lower-alpha 17]
CNN/SSRS [41] Oct 23–30907 (LV)± 3.8%41%53%2%1%1% [lower-alpha 18] 2%
Mitchell Research (R)/MIRS [42] Oct 29817 (LV)± 3.43%45%52%1%1%0% [lower-alpha 19] 0%
RMG Research/PoliticalIQ [43] Oct 27–29800 (LV)± 3.5%44% [lower-alpha 9] 51%--3%2%
42% [lower-alpha 20] 53%--3%2%
45% [lower-alpha 21] 50%--3%2%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [44] Oct 26–291,212 (LV)41%54%1%0%1%4%
EPIC-MRA [45] Oct 25–28600 (LV)± 4%41%48%--5% [lower-alpha 22] 6% [lower-alpha 23]
Trafalgar Group [46] Oct 25–281,058 (LV)± 2.93%49%47%2%-1% [lower-alpha 24] 1%
Kiaer Research [47] Oct 21–28669 (LV)± 5.6%41%54%--2% [lower-alpha 25] 4%
SurveyMonkey/Axios [29] Oct 1–28, 20207,541 (LV)45%53%--
Mitchell Research (R)/MIRS [48] Oct 25–27759 (LV)± 3.56%42%52%3%0%0% [lower-alpha 26] 2%
Swayable [49] Oct 23–26, 2020394 (LV)± 6.7%40%59%2%0%
Siena College/NYT Upshot [50] Oct 23–26856 (LV)± 3.8%41%49%2%1%0% [lower-alpha 27] 6% [lower-alpha 23]
Ipsos/Reuters [51] Oct 20–26652 (LV)± 4.4%43% [lower-alpha 9] 53%1%0%2% [lower-alpha 10]
43% [lower-alpha 11] 52%--3% [lower-alpha 12] 3%
Wick Surveys [52] Oct 24–251,000 (LV)± 3.1%48%48%--
Glengariff Group/Detroit News [53] Oct 23–25600 (LV)± 4%42%49%--2% [lower-alpha 28] 4%
ABC/Washington Post [54] Oct 20–25789 (LV)± 4%44%51%3%0%0% [lower-alpha 29] 1%
Gravis Marketing [55] Oct 24679 (LV)± 3.8%42%55%--3%
Public Policy Polling/American Bridge PAC [56] [upper-alpha 3] Oct 21–22804 (V)43%50%--6%
YouGov/University of Wisconsin-Madison [57] Oct 13–21681 (LV)± 4.2%42%52%--5% [lower-alpha 30]
Citizen Data [58] Oct 17–201,000 (LV)± 3.1%41%50%1%0%1%7%
Fox News [59] Oct 17–201,032 (LV)± 3.0%40%52%3%0%2% [lower-alpha 31] 3%
Ipsos/Reuters [60] Oct 14–20686 (LV)± 4.3%44% [lower-alpha 9] 52%2%0%2% [lower-alpha 10]
44% [lower-alpha 11] 51%--3% [lower-alpha 12] 2%
Morning Consult [37] Oct 11–201,717 (LV)± 2.4%44%52%--
Change Research/CNBC [61] Oct 16–19718 (LV) [lower-alpha 32] 44%51%--
EPIC-MRA [62] Oct 15–19600 (LV)± 4%39%48%--5% [lower-alpha 33] 8% [lower-alpha 23]
Mitchell Research (R)/MIRS [63] Oct 18900 (LV)± 3.27%41%51%3%1%1% [lower-alpha 24] 3%
Trafalgar Group/Restoration PAC [64] [upper-alpha 4] Oct 15–181,034 (LV)± 2.97%47%45%3%2%2% [lower-alpha 8] 2%
Data For Progress [65] Oct 15–18830 (LV)± 3.4%45%50%2%0%3%
Zia Poll/Painter Communications/MIRS News [66] Oct 11–182,851 (LV)± 2.5%49%45%--2%3%
HarrisX/The Hill [67] Oct 12–151,289 (LV)43%54%--
Trafalgar Group [68] Oct 11–141,025 (LV)± 2.97%47%46%3%2%2% [lower-alpha 8] 2%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [69] Oct 10–13972 (LV)42% [lower-alpha 32] 51%1%0%
RMG Research/PoliticalIQ [70] Oct 8–13800 (LV)42% [lower-alpha 9] 48%2%1%1%5%
39% [lower-alpha 20] 51%2%1%1%5%
44% [lower-alpha 21] 46%2%1%1%5%
Ipsos/Reuters [71] Oct 7–13620 (LV)± 4.5%44% [lower-alpha 9] 51%2%1%2% [lower-alpha 34]
43% [lower-alpha 11] 51%--3% [lower-alpha 12] 2%
EPIC-MRA/Detroit Free Press [72] Oct 8–12600 (LV)± 4%39%48%--4% [lower-alpha 35] 9% [lower-alpha 23]
Civiqs/Rust Belt Rising [73] [upper-alpha 5] Oct 8–11543 (LV)± 4.6%43%52%--4% [lower-alpha 36] 2%
Siena College/NYT Upshot [74] Oct 6–11614 (LV)± 4.6%40%48%1%1%1% [lower-alpha 37] 8% [lower-alpha 23]
Morning Consult [75] Oct 2–111,710 (LV)± 2.4%44%51%--
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [69] Oct 9–10827 (LV)41% [lower-alpha 32] 51%2%1%
YouGov/CBS [76] Oct 6–91,190 (LV)± 3.3%46%52%--2% [lower-alpha 38] 0%
Baldwin Wallace University [77] Sep 30 – Oct 81,134 (LV)± 3.2%43%50%1%1%0% [lower-alpha 39] 4%
Emerson College [78] Oct 6–7716 (LV)± 3.6%43% [lower-alpha 15] 54%--2% [lower-alpha 8]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [79] Oct 4–6700 (LV)± 3.7%42%50%1%0%1% [lower-alpha 40] 6%
Opinion Insight/American Action Forum [80] [upper-alpha 6] Oct 3–6800 (LV)± 3.46%44% [lower-alpha 15] 52%--2%3%
Ipsos/Reuters [81] Sep 29 – Oct 6709 (LV)± 4.2%43%51%--2% [lower-alpha 41] 3%
Change Research/CNBC [82] Oct 2–4676 (LV)43%51%--
Glengariff Group/Detroit News [83] Sep 30 – Oct 3600 (LV)± 4%39%48%--5% [lower-alpha 42] 7%
Public Policy Polling/Progress Michigan [84] [upper-alpha 2] Sep 30 – Oct 1746 (V)44%50%2%1%3%
SurveyMonkey/Axios [29] Sep 1–303,297 (LV)44%53%--3%
Trafalgar Group/Restoration PAC [85] [upper-alpha 4] Sep 26–281,042 (LV)± 2.95%47%49%2%0%1% [lower-alpha 24] 2%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [86] Sep 23–26785 (LV)± 3.5%42%51%1%0%0% [lower-alpha 43] 6%
Marist College/NBC [87] Sep 19–23799 (LV)± 4.3%44%52%--1%3%
ALG Research/Committee to Protect Medicare [88] [upper-alpha 7] Sep 17–23800 (LV)± 3.5%44%52%--
Trafalgar Group [89] Sep 20–221,015 (LV)± 2.99%46.7%46.0%2.1%0.8%1.2% [lower-alpha 44] 3.2%
Baldwin Wallace University [90] Sep 9–221,001 (LV)± 3.6%42%50%1%0%1% [lower-alpha 45] 6%
YouGov/UW-Madison Elections Research
Center/Wisconsin State Journal [91]
Sep 10–21641 (LV)45%51%--
Change Research/CNBC [92] Sep 18–20568 (LV)43%51%--
Hart Research Associates/Human Rights Campaign [93] [upper-alpha 8] Sep 17–19400 (LV)± 4.9%45%50%--
Data for Progress (D) [94] Sep 14–19455 (LV)± 4.6%42% [lower-alpha 9] 48%1%0%9%
44% [lower-alpha 46] 50%--6%
MRG [95] Sep 14–19600 (LV)± 4%41%46%--8% [lower-alpha 47] 5%
Ipsos/Reuters [96] Sep 11–16637 (LV)± 4.4%44%49%--2% [lower-alpha 41] 4%
Civiqs/Rust Belt Rising [97] [upper-alpha 5] Sep 11–15517 (RV)42%53%--3% [lower-alpha 16] 1%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [98] Sep 12–14930 (LV)± 3.21%39%49%2%1%0% [lower-alpha 43] 9%
EPIC-MRA [99] Sep 10–15600 (LV)± 4%40%48%--5% [lower-alpha 33] 7% [lower-alpha 23]
Benenson Strategy Group/GS Strategy Group/AARP [100] Aug 28 – Sep 81,600 (LV)± 2.5%43%50%--1% [lower-alpha 48] 5%
Morning Consult [101] Aug 29 – Sep 71,455 (LV)± (2%–4%)42% [lower-alpha 49] 52%--
Change Research/CNBC [102] Sep 4–6876 (LV)43%49%--7% [lower-alpha 50]
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports [103] Sep 2–31,000 (LV)± 3%44% [lower-alpha 15] 53%--3% [lower-alpha 51]
Glengariff Group [104] Sep 1–3600 (LV)± 4%42%47%--4% [lower-alpha 52] 7%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [105] Aug 30 – Sep 3967 (LV)± 3.15%40%51%1%0%1% [lower-alpha 40] 7%
Opinion Insight/American Action Forum [106] [upper-alpha 6] Aug 30 – Sep 2802 (LV)± 3.46%44% [lower-alpha 15] 51%2%1%0% [lower-alpha 53] 3%
SurveyMonkey/Axios [29] Aug 1–312,962 (LV)48%49%--3%
Morning Consult [107] Aug 21–301,424 (LV)± (2%–4%)42%52%--
Public Policy Polling/Progress Michigan [108] [upper-alpha 2] Aug 28–29897 (V)44%48%3%1%3%
Change Research/CNBC [109] Aug 21–23809 (LV)44%50%--
Trafalgar Group [110] Aug 14–231,048 (LV)± 2.98%47%45%3%-1% [lower-alpha 54] 4%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies [111] Aug 16–19812 (LV)38%50%1%1%1% [lower-alpha 55] 9%
Civiqs/Rust Belt Rising [112] [upper-alpha 5] Aug 13–17631 (RV)46%49%--3% [lower-alpha 16] 1%
Morning Consult [107] Aug 7–161,212 (LV)± (2%–4%)44%50%--
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC [113] [upper-alpha 4] Aug 11–15600 (LV)41%52%--7%
Change Research/CNBC [114] Aug 7–9413 (LV)43%48%--
YouGov/University of Wisconsin-Madison [115] Jul 27 – Aug 6761 (RV)± 5.1%43%47%--5% [lower-alpha 56] 6%
GQR Research/Unite the Country PAC [116] [upper-alpha 9] Jul 30 – Aug 41,245 (LV)43%52%--
David Binder Research [117] Jul 30–31200 (LV)41%51%--
SurveyMonkey/Axios [29] Jul 1–313,083 (LV)48%49%--2%
EPIC-MRA [118] Jul 25–30600 (LV)± 4.0%40%51%3%--6%
Public Policy Polling/Progress Michigan [119] [upper-alpha 2] Jul 28–29876 (V)43%49%--6% [lower-alpha 57] 3%
Change Research/CNBC [120] Jul 24–26413 (LV)42%46%--
Morning Consult [121] Jul 17–261,320 (LV)± 2.7%42%52%--
YouGov/CBS [122] Jul 21–241,156 (LV)± 3.4%42%48%--2% [lower-alpha 58] 7%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [123] Jul 19–24811 (LV)37%49%1%1%2% [lower-alpha 59] 10%
CNN/SSRS [124] Jul 18–24927 (RV)± 3.8%40%52%--5% [lower-alpha 60] 2%
Gravis Marketing [125] Jul 22754 (RV)± 3.6%42%51%--7%
Fox News [126] Jul 18–20756 (RV)± 3.5%40%49%--4% [lower-alpha 61] 7%
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC [127] [upper-alpha 4] Jul 13–16600 (LV)± 4.0%41%53%--7%
Spry Strategies/American Principles Project [128] [upper-alpha 10] Jul 11–16600 (LV)± 3.7%50%45%--5%
Change Research/CNBC [129] Jul 10–12824 (LV)42%48%--
Public Policy Polling/Public Policy Polling/Giffords (D) [130] [upper-alpha 11] Jul 9–101,041 (V)± 3.2%44%51%--5%
SurveyMonkey/Axios [29] Jun 8–301,238 (LV)46%51%--3%
Change Research/CNBC [131] Jun 26–28699 (LV) [lower-alpha 32] 43%48%--
Public Policy Polling/Public Policy Polling/Progress Michigan (D) [132] [upper-alpha 2] Jun 26–271,237 (V)44%50%--5% [lower-alpha 62] 1%
Hodas & Associates/Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) [133] Jun 17–20600 (LV)± 4.0%38%56%--2% [lower-alpha 63] 7%
Trafalgar Group [134] Jun 16–181,101 (LV)± 2.95%45%46%--5% [lower-alpha 33] 4%
NYT Upshot/Siena College [135] Jun 8–17610 (RV)± 4.3%36%47%--8% [lower-alpha 64] 9%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [136] Jun 14–16826 (LV)± 3.41%36%47%2%1%2% [lower-alpha 65] 12%
TargetPoint [137] Jun 11–161,000 (A)33%49%--4% [lower-alpha 66] 14%
Change Research/CNBC [138] Jun 12–14353 (LV) [lower-alpha 32] 45%47%--3% [lower-alpha 67]
TIPP/American Greatness PAC [139] [upper-alpha 1] Jun 9–12859 (LV)38%51%--4% [lower-alpha 68] 7%
Kiaer Research [140] May 31 – Jun 7543 (LV)± 6.4%35%50%--6% [lower-alpha 69] 8%
EPIC-MRA [141] May 31 – Jun 4600 (LV)± 4%39%55%--
EPIC-MRA [142] May 30 – Jun 3600 (LV)± 4%41%53%--6% [lower-alpha 23]
Change Research/CNBC [143] May 29–31620 (LV) [lower-alpha 32] 46%48%--3%3%
Public Policy Polling/Progress Michigan [144] [upper-alpha 2] May 29–301,582 (V)± 2.5%44%50%--4% [lower-alpha 70] 2%
Morning Consult [121] May 17–261,325 (LV)42%50%--
Public Policy Polling/Protect Our Care [145] [upper-alpha 12] May 18–191,234 (V)± 2.8%45%51%--5%
Change Research/Crooked Media [146] May 11–173,070 (LV)46%49%--
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [147] May 10–14970 (LV)± 3.2%39%47%--3% [lower-alpha 71] 11%
Hodas & Associates/Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) [148] May 1–5600 (LV)± 3%42%50%--8%
Public Policy Polling [149] [upper-alpha 13] Apr 28–291,270 (V)42%50%--8%
Public Policy Polling [150] [upper-alpha 14] Apr 20–211,277 (RV)44%51%--5%
Fox News [151] Apr 18–21801 (RV)± 3.5%41%49%--3%6%
Ipsos/Reuters [152] Apr 15–20612 (RV)± 5.0%38%46%--
Hodas & Associates/Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) [153] Apr 9–11600 (RV)± 3.0%43%49%--
Hart Research/CAP Action [154] [upper-alpha 15] Apr 6–8303 (RV)41%50%--4%5%
Public Policy Polling [155] Mar 31 – Apr 11,019 (RV)± 3.1%45%48%--7%
SPRY Strategies [156] Mar 30 – Apr 1602 (LV)± 4.0%46%46%--8%
Baldwin Wallace University Great Lakes [157] Mar 17–25997 (RV)± 3.7%42%47%--11%
Change Research [158] Mar 21–23510 (LV)47%48%--5%
Marketing Resource Group [159] Mar 16–20600 (LV)± 4.0%41%44%--9% [lower-alpha 72] 6%
Hodas & Associates/Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) [160] Mar 12–16600 (RV)44%50%--
AtlasIntel [161] Mar 7–91,100 (RV)± 3.0%46%44%--10%
YouGov/Yahoo News [162] Mar 6–8566 (RV)41%45%--6% [lower-alpha 73] 7%
Monmouth University [163] Mar 5–8977 (RV)± 3.1%41%48%--2%9%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus [164] Mar 5–7550 (RV)± 5.3%46%44%--
YouGov [165] Feb 11–201,249 (RV)± 4.0%43%47%--
Quinnipiac University [166] Feb 12–18845 (RV)± 3.4%43%47%--6% [lower-alpha 74] 3%
Expedition Strategies/Progressive Policies Institute [167] Feb 6–18500 (RV)43%43%--14%
EPIC-MRA/Detroit Free Press [168] Jan 9–12600 (LV)± 4%44%50%--6%
Glengariff Group Inc. [169] Jan 3–7600 (LV)± 4%43%50%--5%

2017–2019 polls

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 6]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump

Republican
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Other Undecided
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus [164] Dec 3–5, 2019551 (LV)± 4.3%46%41%8% [lower-alpha 75] 5% [lower-alpha 23]
Emerson College [170] Oct 31 – Nov 3, 20191,051 (RV)± 3.0%44%56%
NYT Upshot/Siena College [171] Oct 13–25, 2019501 (LV)± 5.1%44%45%
Target Insyght [172] Sep 24–26, 2019800 (LV)35%54%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus [173] Sep 7–9, 2019529 (LV)± 4.0%41%42%17%
EPIC-MRA [174] Aug 17–21, 2019600 (LV)± 4.0%41%51%8%
Climate Nexus [175] Jul 14–17, 2019820 (RV)± 4.0%36%49%5% [lower-alpha 76] 10%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus [176] Jun 11–13, 2019587 (LV)± 4.2%43%46%11%
EPIC-MRA [177] Jun 8–12, 2019600 (LV)± 4.0%41%52%7%
Glengariff Group [178] May 28–30, 2019600 (LV)± 4.0%41%53%4%
WPA Intelligence [179] Apr 27–30, 2019200 (LV)± 6.9%42%45%12%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus [180] Mar 19–21, 2019530 (LV)± 4.5%46%45%4%
Emerson College [181] Mar 7–10, 2019743 (RV)± 3.5%46%54%
Glengariff Group [182] Jan 24–26, 2019600 (LV)± 4.0%40%53%5%
EPIC-MRA [183] Apr 28–30, 2018600 (LV)± 4.0%39%52%9%
Zogby Analytics [184] Sep 2017800 (V)35%52%13%
Former candidates

Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 6]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Michael
Bloomberg (D)
OtherUndecided
Quinnipiac University [166] Feb 12–18, 2020845 (RV)±3.4%42%47%7% [lower-alpha 77] 4%
Expedition Strategies/Progressive Policies Institute [167] Feb 6–18, 2020500 (RV)41%46%13%
EPIC-MRA/Detroit Free Press [168] Jan 9–12, 2020600 (LV)± 4%42%49%9%
Glengariff Group Inc. [169] Jan 3–7, 2020600 (LV)± 4%41%47%10%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus [164] Dec 3–5, 2019551 (LV)± 4.3%48%37%8% [lower-alpha 75] 7% [lower-alpha 23]

Donald Trump vs. Cory Booker

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 6]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Cory
Booker (D)
OtherUndecided
Climate Nexus [175] Jul 14–17, 2019820 (RV)± 4.0%37%39%7% [lower-alpha 78] 16%

Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 6]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Pete
Buttigieg (D)
OtherUndecided
YouGov [165] Feb 11–20, 20201,249 (RV)±4.0%41%47%
Quinnipiac University [166] Feb 12–18, 2020845 (RV)±3.4%44%45%8% [lower-alpha 79] 3%
Expedition Strategies/Progressive Policies Institute [167] Feb 6–18, 2020500 (RV)40%44%15%
EPIC-MRA/Detroit Free Press [168] Jan 9–12, 2020600 (LV)± 4%43%47%10%
Glengariff Group Inc. [169] Jan 3–7, 2020600 (LV)± 4%43%45%10%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus [164] Dec 3–5, 2019551 (LV)± 4.3%48%37%8% [lower-alpha 80] 6% [lower-alpha 23]
Climate Nexus [175] Jul 14–17, 2019820 (RV)± 4.0%37%39%7% [lower-alpha 78] 16%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus [176] Jun 11–13, 2019587 (LV)± 4.2%44%40%16%
Glengariff Group [178] May 28–30, 2019600 (LV)± 4.0%41%47%11%

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 6]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Kamala
Harris (D)
OtherUndecided
EPIC-MRA [174] Aug 17–21, 2019600 (LV)± 4.0%43%46%11%
Climate Nexus [175] Jul 14–17, 2019820 (RV)± 4.0%38%41%6% [lower-alpha 81] 14%
Glengariff Group [178] May 28–30, 2019600 (LV)± 4.0%44%47%9%
Emerson College [181] Mar 7–10, 2019743 (RV)± 3.5%49%51%
Glengariff Group [182] Jan 24–26, 2019600 (LV)± 4.0%42%47%10%

Donald Trump vs. Amy Klobuchar

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 6]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Amy
Klobuchar (D)
OtherUndecided
YouGov [165] Feb 11–20, 20201,249 (RV)± 4.0%41%44%
Quinnipiac University [166] Feb 12–18, 2020845 (RV)± 3.4%44%45%6% [lower-alpha 74] 4%
Emerson College [181] Mar 7–10, 2019743 (RV)± 3.5%47%53%

Donald Trump vs. Beto O'Rourke

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 6]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Beto
O'Rourke (D)
OtherUndecided
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus [180] Mar 19–21, 2019530 (LV)± 4.5%48%39%8%

Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 6]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Bernie
Sanders (D)
OtherUndecided
Baldwin Wallace University Great Lakes [157] Mar 17–25, 2020997 (RV)± 3.7%42%45%13%
Hodas & Associates/Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) [160] Mar 12–16, 2020600 (RV)44%49%
AtlasIntel [161] Mar 7–9, 20201,100 (RV)± 3.0%43%46%11%
YouGov/Yahoo News [162] Mar 6–8, 2020566 (RV)42%43%7% [lower-alpha 82] 8%
Monmouth University [163] Mar 5–8, 2020977 (RV)± 3.1%41%46%2%9%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus [164] Mar 5–7, 2020550 (RV)± 5.3%48%41%
YouGov [165] Feb 11–20, 20201,249 (RV)± 4.0%41%48%
Quinnipiac University [166] Feb 12–18, 2020845 (RV)± 3.4%43%48%7% [lower-alpha 77] 3%
Expedition Strategies/Progressive Policies Institute [167] Feb 6–18, 2020500 (RV)42%46%12%
EPIC-MRA/Detroit Free Press [168] Jan 9–12, 2020600 (LV)± 4%45%50%5%
Glengariff Group Inc. [169] Jan 3–7, 2020600 (LV)± 4%45%49%5%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus [164] Dec 3–5, 2019551 (LV)± 4.3%48%42%6% [lower-alpha 83] 5% [lower-alpha 23]
Emerson College [170] Oct 31 – Nov 3, 20191,051 (RV)± 3.0%43%57%
NYT Upshot/Siena College [171] Oct 13–25, 2019501 (LV)± 5.1%42%46%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus [173] Sep 7–9, 2019529 (LV)± 4.0%43%40%17%
EPIC-MRA [174] Aug 17–21, 2019600 (LV)± 4.0%44%48%8%
Climate Nexus [175] Jul 14–17, 2019820 (RV)± 4.0%38%47%4% [lower-alpha 84] 11%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus [176] Jun 11–13, 2019587 (LV)± 4.2%44%44%12%
Glengariff Group [178] May 28–30, 2019600 (LV)± 4.0%41%53%5%
Tulchin Research (D) [185] [upper-alpha 16] Apr 14–18, 2019400 (LV)± 4.9%41%52%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus [180] Mar 19–21, 2019530 (LV)± 4.5%46%45%6%
Emerson College [181] Mar 7–10, 2019743 (RV)± 3.5%47%52%
Glengariff Group [182] Jan 24–26, 2019600 (LV)± 4.0%41%52%6%
Zogby Analytics [184] Sep 2017800 (V)36%54%10%

Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 6]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Elizabeth
Warren (D)
OtherUndecided
YouGov [165] Feb 11–20, 20201,249 (RV)±4.0%43%46%
Quinnipiac University [166] Feb 12–18, 2020845 (RV)±3.4%43%45%7% [lower-alpha 85] 4%
EPIC-MRA/Detroit Free Press [168] Jan 9–12, 2020600 (LV)± 4%45%48%7%
Glengariff Group Inc. [169] Jan 3–7, 2020600 (LV)± 4%44%46%8%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus [164] Dec 3–5, 2019551 (LV)± 4.3%47%38%8% [lower-alpha 86] 6% [lower-alpha 23]
Emerson College [170] Oct 31 – Nov 3, 20191,051 (RV)± 3.0%46%54%
NYT Upshot/Siena College [171] Oct 13–25, 2019501 (LV)± 5.1%45%40%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus [173] Sep 7–9, 2019529 (LV)± 4.0%42%41%17%
EPIC-MRA [174] Aug 17–21, 2019600 (LV)± 4.0%43%49%8%
Climate Nexus [175] Jul 14–17, 2019820 (RV)± 4.0%38%44%6% [lower-alpha 81] 12%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus [176] Jun 11–13, 2019587 (LV)± 4.2%43%41%16%
Glengariff Group [178] May 28–30, 2019600 (LV)± 4.0%43%47%9%
Emerson College [181] Mar 7–10, 2019743 (RV)± 3.5%49%51%
Glengariff Group [182] Jan 24–26, 2019600 (LV)± 4.0%43%46%10%
Zogby Analytics [184] Sep 2017800 (V)37%46%17%
Zogby Analytics [186] Aug 17–23, 2017803 (LV)± 3.5%35%51%14%
Hypothetical polling

with Donald Trump, Joe Biden, and Justin Amash

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 6]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Joe
Biden (D)
Justin
Amash (L)
Undecided
Glengariff Group [178] May 28–30, 2019600 (LV)± 4.0%39%45%10%6%

with Donald Trump, Joe Biden, and Howard Schultz

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 6]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Joe
Biden (D)
Howard
Schultz (I)
Undecided
Emerson College [181] Mar 7–10, 2019743 (RV)± 3.5%44%52%4%

with Donald Trump, Bernie Sanders, and Howard Schultz

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 6]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Bernie
Sanders (D)
Howard
Schultz (I)
Undecided
Emerson College [181] Mar 7–10, 2019743 (RV)± 3.5%45%49%6%

with Donald Trump and Generic Democrat

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 6]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Generic
Democrat (D)
Undecided
Baldwin Wallace University/Oakland University/Ohio Northern University [187] Mar 17–25, 2020997 (RV)± 3.7%43.2% [lower-alpha 87] 54.0%2.9% [lower-alpha 88]
Expedition Strategies/Progressive Policies Institute [167] Feb 6–18, 2020500 (RV)38%50%11%
Baldwin Wallace University/Oakland University/Ohio Northern University [188] Jan 8–20, 20201,023 (RV)± 3.1%36.4% [lower-alpha 87] 50.3%13.3%
KFF/Cook Political Report [189] Sep 23 – Oct 15, 2019767 (RV)± 4%27%39%25%

with Donald Trump and Generic Opponent

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 6]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Generic
Opponent
Undecided
EPIC-MRA [118] Jul 25 - 30, 2020600 (LV)± 4%37%49% [lower-alpha 89] 14%
EPIC-MRA [141] May 31 – Jun 4, 2020600 (LV)± 4%33%51% [lower-alpha 89] 13% [lower-alpha 90]
EPIC-MRA [141] May 30 – Jun 3, 2020600 (LV)± 4%38%51% [lower-alpha 89] 8% [lower-alpha 90]
EPIC-MRA/Detroit Free Press [168] Jan 9–12, 2020600 (LV)± 4%34%44% [lower-alpha 89] 22% [lower-alpha 91]
EPIC-MRA [177] Jun 8–12, 2019600 (LV)± 4%32%45% [lower-alpha 92] 23% [lower-alpha 93]
EPIC-MRA/Detroit Free Press [190] Mar 3–7, 2019600 (LV)± 4%31%49% [lower-alpha 94] 20% [lower-alpha 95]
Glengariff Group/WDIV/Detroit News [191] Jan 24–26, 2019600 (LV)± 4%31%53%15% [lower-alpha 96]

Results

People at the United States Embassy in New Zealand watch as the results from Michigan are released on CNN, 5 November 2020. Election 2020 Watch Function, 4 November 2020 (50567910881).jpg
People at the United States Embassy in New Zealand watch as the results from Michigan are released on CNN, 5 November 2020.
2020 United States presidential election in Michigan [192] [193]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Joe Biden
Kamala Harris
2,804,040 50.62% +3.35%
Republican Donald Trump
Mike Pence
2,649,85247.84%+0.34%
Libertarian Jo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen
60,3811.09%−2.50%
Green Howie Hawkins
Angela Walker
13,7180.25%−0.82%
Constitution Don Blankenship
William Mohr
7,2350.13%N/A
Natural Law Rocky De La Fuente
Darcy Richardson
2,9860.05%N/A
Write-in Brian T. Carroll 9630.02%+0.01%
Write-in Jade Simmons 89<0.01%N/A
Write-in Tom Hoefling 32<0.01%N/A
Write-in 6<0.01%N/A
Total votes5,539,302 100.00%

By county

CountyJoe Biden
Democratic
Donald Trump
Republican
Various candidates
Other parties
MarginTotal votes cast
# %# %# %# %
Alcona 2,14230.32%4,84868.63%741.05%−2,706−38.31%7,064
Alger 2,05339.98%3,01458.70%681.32%−961−18.72%5,135
Allegan 24,44936.39%41,39261.60%1,3542.01%−16,943−25.21%67,195
Alpena 6,00035.32%10,68662.91%3011.77%−4,686−27.59%16,987
Antrim 5,96037.32%9,74861.03%2641.65%−3,788−23.71%15,972
Arenac 2,77431.38%5,92867.07%1371.55%−3,154−35.69%8,839
Baraga 1,47836.52%2,51262.07%571.41%−1,034−25.55%4,047
Barry 11,79732.80%23,47165.27%6931.93%−11,674−32.47%35,961
Bay 26,15143.34%33,12554.90%1,0571.76%−6,974−11.56%60,333
Benzie 5,48044.69%6,60153.83%1811.48%−1,121−9.14%12,262
Berrien 37,43845.34%43,51952.71%1,6081.95%−6,081−7.37%82,565
Branch 6,15929.94%14,06468.36%3501.70%−7,905−38.42%20,573
Calhoun 28,87743.57%36,22154.65%1,1831.78%−5,344−11.08%66,281
Cass 9,13034.79%16,69963.63%4131.58%−7,569−28.84%26,242
Charlevoix 6,93940.75%9,84157.79%2501.46%−2,902−17.04%17,030
Cheboygan 5,43734.22%10,18664.10%2671.68%−4,749−29.88%15,890
Chippewa 6,64837.62%10,68160.44%3421.94%−4,033−22.82%17,671
Clare 5,19931.91%10,86166.65%2351.44%−5,662−34.74%16,295
Clinton 21,96845.84%25,09852.37%8611.79%−3,130−6.53%47,927
Crawford 2,67233.99%5,08764.71%1021.30%−2,415−30.72%7,861
Delta 7,60635.93%13,20762.39%3541.68%−5,601−26.46%21,167
Dickinson 4,74432.46%9,61765.80%2541.74%−4,873−33.34%14,615
Eaton 31,29948.66%31,79849.43%1,2301.91%−499−0.77%64,327
Emmet 9,66243.50%12,13554.64%4121.86%−2,473−11.14%22,209
Genesee 119,39053.84%98,71444.51%3,6601.65%20,6769.33%221,764
Gladwin 4,52430.95%9,89367.69%1981.36%−5,369−36.74%14,615
Gogebic 3,57043.14%4,60055.58%1061.28%−1,030−12.44%8,276
Grand Traverse 28,68347.53%30,50250.54%1,1681.93%−1,819−3.01%60,353
Gratiot 6,69334.95%12,10263.20%3531.85%−5,409−28.25%19,148
Hillsdale 5,88325.25%17,03773.11%3821.64%−11,154−47.86%23,302
Houghton 7,75041.82%10,37856.00%4052.18%−2,628−14.18%18,533
Huron 5,49029.77%12,73169.03%2211.20%−7,241−39.26%18,442
Ingham 94,21265.18%47,63932.96%2,6991.86%46,57332.22%144,550
Ionia 10,90133.84%20,65764.13%6512.03%−9,756−30.29%32,209
Iosco 5,37334.92%9,75963.42%2551.66%−4,386−28.50%15,387
Iron 2,49336.69%4,21662.05%861.26%−1,723−25.36%6,795
Isabella 14,07247.74%14,81550.26%5892.00%−743−2.52%29,476
Jackson 31,99539.49%47,37258.47%1,6472.04%−15,377−18.98%81,014
Kalamazoo 83,68658.22%56,82339.53%3,2372.25%26,86318.69%143,746
Kalkaska 3,00228.24%7,43669.95%1931.81%−4,434−41.71%10,631
Kent 187,91551.91%165,74145.78%8,3752.31%22,1746.13%362,031
Keweenaw 67243.16%86255.36%231.48%−190−12.20%1,557
Lake 2,28836.13%3,94662.32%981.55%−1,658−26.19%6,332
Lapeer 16,36731.04%35,48267.29%8831.67%−19,115−36.25%52,732
Leelanau 8,79552.04%7,91646.84%1891.12%8795.20%16,900
Lenawee 20,91839.13%31,54159.01%9931.86%−10,623−19.88%53,452
Livingston 48,22037.91%76,98260.52%1,9951.57%−28,762−22.61%127,197
Luce 84228.00%2,10970.14%561.86%−1,277−42.14%3,007
Mackinac 2,63237.47%4,30461.27%891.26%−1,772−23.80%7,025
Macomb 223,95245.31%263,86353.39%6,4411.30%−39,911−8.08%494,256
Manistee 6,10741.60%8,32156.69%2511.71%−2,214−15.09%14,679
Marquette 20,46554.50%16,28643.37%7992.13%4,17911.13%37,550
Mason 6,80239.36%10,20759.06%2741.58%−3,405−19.70%17,283
Mecosta 7,37534.98%13,26762.93%4392.09%−5,892−27.95%21,081
Menominee 4,31634.20%8,11764.31%1881.49%−3,801−30.11%12,621
Midland 20,49341.67%27,67556.28%1,0072.05%−7,182−14.61%49,175
Missaukee 1,96722.47%6,64875.93%1401.60%−4,681−53.46%8,755
Monroe 32,98037.78%52,72260.39%1,5971.83%−19,742−22.61%87,299
Montcalm 9,70330.19%21,81567.88%6201.93%−12,112−37.69%32,138
Montmorency 1,62827.77%4,17171.14%641.09%−2,543−43.37%5,863
Muskegon 45,64349.37%45,13348.82%1,6681.81%5100.55%92,444
Newaygo 7,87328.95%18,85769.33%4671.72%−10,984−40.38%27,197
Oakland 434,14856.24%325,97142.22%11,8721.54%108,17714.02%771,991
Oceana 4,94435.11%8,89263.15%2441.74%−3,948−28.04%14,080
Ogemaw 3,47529.15%8,25369.23%1931.62%−4,778−40.08%11,921
Ontonagon 1,39136.51%2,35861.89%611.60%−967−25.38%3,810
Osceola 3,21426.05%8,92872.35%1981.60%−5,714−46.30%12,340
Oscoda 1,34227.50%3,46671.02%721.48%−2,124−43.52%4,880
Otsego 4,74332.10%9,77966.19%2531.71%−5,036−34.09%14,775
Ottawa 64,70538.35%100,91359.81%3,0951.84%−36,208−21.46%168,713
Presque Isle 2,91134.84%5,34263.94%1021.22%−2,431−29.10%8,355
Roscommon 5,16634.36%9,67064.32%1981.32%−4,504−29.96%15,034
Saginaw 51,08849.37%50,78549.08%1,6101.55%3030.29%103,483
St. Clair 31,36334.02%59,18564.19%1,6541.79%−27,822−30.17%92,202
St. Joseph 9,26233.10%18,12764.78%5922.12%−8,865−31.68%27,981
Sanilac 5,96626.58%16,19472.15%2861.27%−10,228−45.57%22,446
Schoolcraft 1,58933.49%3,09065.12%661.39%−1,501−31.63%4,745
Shiawassee 15,34739.05%23,14958.90%8052.05%−7,802−19.85%39,301
Tuscola 8,71229.55%20,29768.85%4701.60%−11,585−39.30%29,479
Van Buren 16,80342.92%21,59155.16%7521.92%−4,788−12.24%39,146
Washtenaw 157,13672.44%56,24125.93%3,5541.63%100,89546.51%216,931
Wayne 597,17068.32%264,55330.27%12,2951.41%332,61738.05%874,018
Wexford 5,83831.92%12,10266.16%3521.92%−6,264−34.24%18,292
Totals2,804,04550.55%2,649,86447.77%93,2771.68%154,1812.78%5,547,186
Michigan County Swing 2020.svg
Michigan County Trend 2020.svg
Michigan County Flips 2020.svg

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Despite losing the state, Trump won 8 out of the 14 congressional districts in Michigan, including one that elected a Democrat.

DistrictTrumpBidenRepresentative
1st 57.9%40.6% Jack Bergman
2nd 55%43.2% Bill Huizenga
3rd 50.7%47.4% Justin Amash
Peter Meijer
4th 61.1%37.2% John Moolenaar
5th 47.1%51.4% Dan Kildee
6th 51.3%46.8% Fred Upton
7th 56.7%41.6% Tim Walberg
8th 49.6%48.8% Elissa Slotkin
9th 42.7%55.9% Andy Levin
10th 64.2%34.4% Paul Mitchell
Lisa McClain
11th 47.1%51.6% Haley Stevens
12th 34.4%64.2% Debbie Dingell
13th 20%78.8% Rashida Tlaib
14th 19.6%79.5% Brenda Lawrence

Analysis

Michigan was generally seen as one of the most critical states of the 2020 election; the state boasted a highly prized 16 electoral votes, and had been part of the blue wall since Bill Clinton won the state in 1992. It was key to Trump's surprise victory in 2016, and the Biden campaign paid heavy attention to the state throughout the campaign, looking to avoid a repeat of Hillary Clinton's unexpected collapse in the northern industrial states. [194] [195]

Biden would carry the state by just under 2.8%; while Biden ran well behind Barack Obama in his two campaigns, his margin of victory was nearly in-line for a Democratic candidate, only performing slightly worse than John Kerry's 3.4% margin in 2004, and Al Gore's 5.1% margin in 2000, reflecting some of the steady demographic shifts in the state. Many undecided/third-party voters that had been lost by Clinton appeared to return to the Democratic column, giving Biden enough votes to carry the state. [196]

While Michigan returned to the Democratic column with a somewhat comfortable margin, the state's internal politics shifted rather dramatically. Trump performed strongly with white voters without a college degree, winning this group by 17 points, and this group made up about 51% of Michigan's electorate, cementing the white-working-class shift to the GOP; with men, this was even more convincing, as Trump carried white men without a college degree by 30 points. On the other hand, there was a significant suburban shift towards the Democrats; for example, Ottawa County, a suburban county outside of Grand Rapids, has traditionally been a GOP-stronghold in the state; Biden cut into Trump's margins here, and Trump carried this county with less than 60%. [196] Trump held Macomb County, which famously helped him clinch Michigan in 2016, but carried it by only 8 points, 3 points fewer than in 2016. [197]

Other demographic patterns remained the same. Biden won 93% of African-American voters in the state; consequently, Biden improved from Clinton's performance in Wayne County, home of Detroit. [197] Biden's performance among black voters would carry on in other parts of the state; Biden was able to match Clinton's performance in Genesee County, [198] and flipped back Saginaw County. [199]

Biden performed strongly with Michigan's different religious groups; Biden was able to improve from Clinton in the vote share with Evangelical Michiganders. More importantly, Biden performed strongly with white Catholics, who make up a large portion of Michigan's electorate. [200] Much of the state's sizable Muslim and Arab American voters backed Biden in the election, in which their support was seen as being important for helping Biden secure victory in Michigan. [201] [202]

Jeremy W. Peters of The New York Times wrote that "high Detroit turnout" was a crucial factor aiding Biden. [203] African Americans in Detroit were a major demographic contributing to Joe Biden winning that state. [204] Trump received 12,600 votes in Detroit proper, an increase from the previous election's 7,700. In percentage terms, the shift in Detroit was from Clinton 95–3 to Biden 94–5, a decreased margin from 92 points in 2016 to 89 in 2020. Biden saw increases from 2016 in Oakland and Washtenaw counties. [205]

The 2020 election in Oakland County by municipality (certain villages like Holly not shown). 2020 US Presidential Election in Oakland County, Michigan.svg
The 2020 election in Oakland County by municipality (certain villages like Holly not shown).
The 2020 election in Wayne County by municipality. 2020 US Presidential Election in Wayne County, Michigan.svg
The 2020 election in Wayne County by municipality.

In Oakland County, Biden won 433,982 votes, making up 56.36% of the votes. The municipalities in Oakland County that majority-voted for Biden versus Trump included Bloomfield Township, Farmington Hills, Madison Heights, Novi, Rochester Hills, Southfield and Troy. [206]

The number of unbalanced votes in Wayne County for 2020 was below the same number for 2016. [207] On November 23, 2020, Michigan certified the results 3–0, with Norm Shinkle abstaining. [208]

Edison exit polls

2020 presidential election in Michigan by demographic subgroup (Edison exit polling) [209] [210]
Demographic subgroupBidenTrump% of

total vote

Total vote50.6247.84100
Ideology
Liberals 891025
Moderates 623638
Conservatives 128837
Party
Democrats 97338
Republicans 69438
Independents 514523
Gender
Men445446
Women574354
Race/ethnicity
White 445581
Black 92712
Latino 55443
Asian 1
Other4
Age
18–24 years old62367
25–29 years old59374
30–39 years old485014
40–49 years old494915
50–64 years old514929
65 and older514930
Sexual orientation
LGBT 6
Not LGBT534794
Education
High school or less495020
Some college education495027
Associate degree 425718
Bachelor's degree 554420
Postgraduate degree633716
Income
Under $30,000613916
$30,000–49,999603920
$50,000–99,999554434
Over $100,000475130
Union households
Yes623721
No485179
Issue regarded as most important
Racial inequality 93516
Coronavirus 94518
Economy 148639
Crime and safety22779
Health care 851210
Region
Wayne County 693016
Southeast584127
East central425724
Southwest465319
North central/Upper Peninsula 405914
Area type
Urban653521
Suburban485158
Rural455421
Family's financial situation today
Better than four years ago188141
Worse than four years ago90915
About the same722743

Aftermath

On November 5, a state judge in Michigan dismissed the Trump campaign's lawsuit requesting a pause in vote-counting to allow access to observers, as the judge noted that vote-counting had already finished in Michigan. [211] That judge also noted the official complaint did not state "why, when, where, or by whom" an election observer was allegedly blocked from observing ballot-counting in Michigan. [212]

On election night in Antrim County, human error miscounted an unofficial tally of Presidential votes. Next day, the County Clerk pulled the unofficial tally offline. The error was caused by using different kinds of ballots when setting up ballot scanners and result-reporting systems, which mismatched results. [213] The Republican Clerk admitted that she made a mistake in some precincts, which mismatched precinct results. [214] The very next day, she corrected her mistake, tabulated all ballots again and ran a final report to certify Trump's overwhelming win. [213] Nonetheless, this error and a related lawsuit fueled multiple election conspiracies. [215]

Despite pressure from the Trump campaign to hand the decision over the state's presidential electors to the Michigan State Legislature, which would have been an unprecedented maneuver in state history and was not authorized under Michigan law, the statewide results were certified in favor of the Biden/Harris ticket on November 23, with one Republican member of the Michigan Board of State Canvassers abstaining. [216]

Official audits

In October 2020, the Michigan Election Security Advisory Commission published recommendations for two types of postelection audits: procedural and tabulation audits. [217] The first statewide risk-limiting audit included a hand tally of the sampled ballots, which confirmed that Biden received more votes than Trump and the share of votes each candidate received was within a fraction of a percentage point of the certified results. [218] Another tabulation audit confirmed the election results by examining ballots cast, voting machines and the election procedures. The series of post-election audits was the most comprehensive in the state's history. [219]

In Antrim County, the Clerk's Office was joined by a bipartisan team of clerks to perform a hand recount of every single ballot. Their recount proved that the county's election results had been accurately certified. [214] The Republican Chairman concluded in a letter prefacing his state Senate Oversight Committee's election report: "all compelling theories that sprang forth from the rumors surrounding Antrim County are diminished so significantly as for it to be a complete waste of time to consider them further." [220]

After eight months investigating the state's 2020 general election process, he and his Republican Committee members all voted for the Senate to adopt their report. Their report concluded, "The Committee found no evidence of widespread or systemic fraud in Michigan's prosecution of the 2020 election." [220]

Election law changes since then

Due to voters approving no-reason-required absentee voting in 2018 and the COVID pandemic, there was a record number of absentee voters. Michigan law at that time did not allow for the tabulating of absentee ballots until after the polling place ballots were counted. That led to days before Biden was declared the winner. [221] In 2022, voters approved a ballot proposal making it easier to vote. In the aftermath, Michigan lawmakers made changes in election laws which, among other things, allowed cities and townships to begin tabulating absentee ballots before Election Day. [222]

See also

Notes

Partisan clients

  1. 1 2 The Center for American Greatness is a pro-Trump organization
  2. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Progress Michigan is a non-profit that primarily supports Democratic candidates
  3. The American Bridge PAC exclusively supports Democratic candidates
  4. 1 2 3 4 The Restoration PAC is a 501 non-profit which supports Donald Trump's 2020 presidential campaign
  5. 1 2 3 Rust Belt Rising is affiliated with the Democratic Party
  6. 1 2 The American Action Forum is a 501 organisation which usually supports Republican candidates
  7. The Committee to Protect Medicare is a PAC with a history of buying ads arguing against the reelection of Trump
  8. The Human Rights Campaign endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period
  9. Unite the Country PAC has endorsed Biden's presidential campaign
  10. This poll's sponsor is the American Principles Project, a 501(c)(4) organization that supports the Republican Party.
  11. Poll sponsored by Giffords, whose head - Gabby Giffords - had endorsed Biden prior to the sampling period
  12. Protect Our Care is a pro-Affordable Care Act organisation
  13. Poll sponsored by Progress Michigan, the Michigan branch of Progress Now, a progressive advocacy organisation
  14. Poll sponsored by Protect Our Care, a pro-Affordable Care Act organisation
  15. CAP Action is a political advocacy group that exclusively supports Democratic candidates
  16. Poll sponsored by the Sanders campaign

Voter samples and additional candidates

  1. 1 2 Candidate withdrew during absentee voting, following Super Tuesday.
  2. 1 2 3 Candidate withdrew during absentee voting, before Super Tuesday.
  3. 1 2 Candidate withdrew during absentee voting, following the New Hampshire primary.
  4. Candidate withdrew in January, shortly after absentee voting had begun.
  5. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  6. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  7. Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  8. 1 2 3 4 "Someone else" with 2%
  9. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Standard VI response
  10. 1 2 3 "Some other candidate" with 2%; West (B) and would not vote with 0%
  11. 1 2 3 4 If only Biden, Trump and "some other candidate" were available
  12. 1 2 3 4 "Some other candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 0%
  13. Results considering those who lean towards a given candidate among those initially predisposed towards abstention, indecision or a candidate besides Biden or Trump in the response section immediately above
  14. "Some other candidate" with 2%
  15. 1 2 3 4 5 With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  16. 1 2 3 "Someone else" with 3%
  17. "Not sure/Someone else/Undecided" with 8%
  18. "None of these" with 1%; "Other" with 0%
  19. "Someone else" with no voters
  20. 1 2 Results generated with high Democratic turnout model
  21. 1 2 Results generated with high Republican turnout model
  22. "Third party" with 5%
  23. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Includes "Refused"
  24. 1 2 3 "Someone else" with 1%
  25. "Other/third party" with 2%
  26. "Someone else" with 0%
  27. "Someone else" and would not vote with 0%
  28. "Third party" with 2%
  29. "Other" and "None of these" with 0%; would not vote with no voters
  30. Includes Undecided
  31. "Other" with 2%; would not vote with no voters
  32. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  33. 1 2 3 "Third party candidate" with 5%
  34. "Some other candidate" and West (B) with 1%; would not vote with 0%
  35. "Third party candidate" with 4%
  36. "Someone else" with 4%
  37. "Someone else" with 1%; would not vote with 0%
  38. "Other third party" with 2%
  39. "Another candidate" with 0%
  40. 1 2 "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 1%
  41. 1 2 "Some other candidate" with 2%; would not vote with 0%
  42. "Refused" with 3%; "Third Party" with 2%
  43. 1 2 "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 0%
  44. "Someone else" with 1.2%
  45. "Another candidate" with 1%
  46. If only Trump and Biden were candidates
  47. "Someone else" with 7%; "Refused" with 1%; would not vote with 0%
  48. Would not vote with 1%
  49. Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  50. "Other/not sure" with 7%
  51. "Some other candidate" with 3%
  52. "Refused" with 3%; "Third party" with 1%
  53. Would not vote with 0%
  54. "Another party candidate" with 1%
  55. "Another third party/write-in" 1%
  56. "Other" with 3%; would not vote with 2%
  57. "Third party" with 6%
  58. "Someone else/third party" with 2%; would not vote with 0%
  59. "Another Third Party/Write-In" with 2%
  60. "Other" with 1%; "Neither" with 4%
  61. "Other" with 3%; would not vote with 1%
  62. "Would vote third party" with 5%
  63. "Refused" with 2%
  64. "Another candidate" with 3%; Would not vote with 5%
  65. "other" with 2%
  66. "Refused/no answer" with 4%
  67. "Libertarian Party candidate/Green Party candidate" with 3%
  68. "Other" with 4%; "prefer not to answer" with 0%
  69. "A different candidate" with 6%
  70. "Third party" with 4%
  71. "Third party/write-in" with 3%
  72. "Someone else" with 6%; "Refused" and would not vote with 1%
  73. "Other" with 4%; would not vote with 2%
  74. 1 2 "Someone else" with 2%; would not vote with 4%
  75. 1 2 A third party candidate with 5%; would not vote with 3%
  76. Would not vote with 5%
  77. 1 2 "Someone else" with 3%; would not vote with 4%
  78. 1 2 Would not vote with 7%
  79. "Someone else" with 3%; would not vote with 5%
  80. A third party candidate with 4%; would not vote with 4%
  81. 1 2 Would not vote with 6%
  82. "Other" with 5%; would not vote with 2%
  83. A third party candidate with 4%; would not vote with 2%
  84. Would not vote with 4%
  85. "Someone else" with 2%; would not vote with 5%
  86. A third party candidate with 3%; would not vote with 5%
  87. 1 2 Figures for each candidate in this poll include undecided voters who were reported to lean towards that candidate at the time of polling.
  88. "It depends on who the Democrats nominate" with 1.9%; "unsure" with 1%
  89. 1 2 3 4 Listed as "Would vote to replace Trump"
  90. 1 2 Listed as "would consider voting for someone other than Trump"
  91. 19% listed as "would consider voting for someone other than Trump"; 3% as "undecided/refused"
  92. "Vote to replace Trump" with 45%
  93. "Consider voting for someone else" with 19%; "Undecided/refused" with 4%
  94. "Vote to replace Trump" with 49%
  95. "Consider voting for someone else" with 16%; "Don't know/refused" with 4%
  96. "Depends on who the Democratic nominee is" with 15%

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Further reading