2016 Michigan Democratic presidential primary

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2016 Michigan Democratic presidential primary
Flag of Michigan.svg
  2008 March 8, 2016 (2016-03-08) 2020  
  Bernie Sanders September 2015 cropped.jpg Hillary Clinton by Gage Skidmore 2.jpg
Candidate Bernie Sanders Hillary Clinton
Home state Vermont New York
Delegate count6763
Popular vote598,943581,775
Percentage49.68%48.26%

2016 Dem Michigan Primary Voteshare.svg
MI Dem Primary President 2016 Congressional Districts.svg
Sanders:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%
Clinton:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%

The 2016 Michigan Democratic presidential primary was held on March 8 in the U.S. state of Michigan as one of the Democratic Party's primaries ahead of the 2016 presidential election.

Contents

On the same day, the Democratic Party held a second primary in Mississippi, while the Republican Party held primaries in four states, including their own Michigan primary. Bernie Sanders' narrow win was a massive upset, with polling before the primary showing him trailing Hillary Clinton by an average of 21.4 points. [1]

Clinton lost Michigan by a narrow margin of 0.23% in the general election, against Republican nominee Donald Trump.

Forums and debates

March 2016 debate in Flint

On March 6, 2016 the Democratic Party held a seventh presidential debate at The Whiting at the Flint Cultural Center. Flint, Michigan was chosen as the center of the ongoing Flint water crisis. [2] The debate was hosted by Anderson Cooper and aired on CNN. Participants were Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders. At the end of the debate, Cooper announced a labor union fund had committed $25 million in low-interest loans towards repairing the water system.

March 2016 forum in Detroit

The next day, on March 7, 2016, a Town Hall event, was held as the eighth democratic forum. It started at 6:00 p.m. E.S.T., at the Gem Theatre in Detroit, Michigan, and was aired by the Fox News Channel. [3] The forum was moderated by Bret Baier.

Opinion polling

Poll sourceDate1st2nd3rdOther
Official Primary results March 8, 2016Bernie Sanders
49.7%
Hillary Clinton
48.3%
Others / Uncommitted
2.1%
FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell [4]

Margin of error: ± 4.5%
Sample size: 482

March 7, 2016Hillary Clinton
61%
Bernie Sanders
34%
Others / Undecided
5%
FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell [5]

Margin of error: ± 4.5%
Sample size: 475

March 6, 2016Hillary Clinton
66%
Bernie Sanders
29%
Others / Undecided
5%
Monmouth [6]

Margin of error: ± 5.6%
Sample size: 302

March 3–6, 2016Hillary Clinton
55%
Bernie Sanders
42%
Others / Undecided
4%
ARG [7]

Margin of error: ± 5.0%
Sample size: 400

March 4–5, 2016Hillary Clinton
60%
Bernie Sanders
36%
Others / Undecided
4%
CBS News/YouGov [7]

Margin of error: ± 7.7%
Sample size: 597

March 2–4, 2016Hillary Clinton
55%
Bernie Sanders
44%
Others / Undecided
1%
Mitchell/FOX 2 [8]

Margin of error: ± 4.0%
Sample size: 610

March 2–3, 2016Hillary Clinton
55%
Bernie Sanders
37%
Others / Undecided
8%
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl [9]

Margin of error: ± 4.2%
Sample size: 546

March 1–3, 2016Hillary Clinton
57%
Bernie Sanders
40%
Others / Undecided
3%
MSU [10]

Margin of error: ± 6.1%
Sample size: 262

January 25-March 3, 2016Hillary Clinton
52%
Bernie Sanders
47%
Others / Undecided
1%
FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell [11]

Margin of error: ± 4.7%
Sample size: 427

March 1, 2016Hillary Clinton
61%
Bernie Sanders
33%
Others / Undecided
6%
MRG [12]

Margin of error: ± 4.0%
Sample size: 218

February 22–27, 2016Hillary Clinton
56%
Bernie Sanders
36%
Others / Undecided
8%
FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell [13]

Margin of error: ± 5.3%
Sample size: 344

February 23, 2016Hillary Clinton
65%
Bernie Sanders
31%
Others / Undecided
4%
ARG [14]

Margin of error: ± 5%
Sample size: 400

February 19–20, 2016Hillary Clinton
53%
Bernie Sanders
40%
Others / Undecided
7%
Fox 2 Detroit/Mitchell [15]

Margin of error: ± 4.69%
Sample size: 430

February 15, 2016Hillary Clinton
60%
Bernie Sanders
27%
Others / Undecided 13%
Public Policy Polling [16]

Margin of error: ± 4.4
Sample size: 500

February 14–16, 2016Hillary Clinton
50%
Bernie Sanders
40%
Fox 2 Detroit/Mitchell [17]

Margin of error: ± 5.5%
Sample size: 321

February 4, 2016Hillary Clinton
57%
Bernie Sanders
28%
Others / Undecided 15%
IMP/Target Insyght [17]

Margin of error: ± 5.0%
Sample size: 400

February 2–4, 2016Hillary Clinton
62%
Bernie Sanders
30%
Others / Undecided 8%
Marketing Resource Group [18]

Margin of error: ± 4%
Sample size: 600

September 9–14, 2015Hillary Clinton
41%
Bernie Sanders
22%
Joe Biden 22%Martin O'Malley 1%, Undecided 12%
Public Policy Polling [19]

Margin of error: ± 4.7%
Sample size: 431

June 25–28, 2015Hillary Clinton
57%
Bernie Sanders
25%
Lincoln Chafee 5%Jim Webb 2%, Martin O'Malley 1%, Not sure 10%
Suffolk

Margin of error: ± ?
Sample size: 212

September 6–10, 2014Hillary Clinton
61%
Joe Biden
17%
Elizabeth Warren
7%
Andrew Cuomo 4%, Martin O'Malley 1%, Undecided 9%, Refused 1%

Results

Michigan Democratic primary, March 8, 2016
CandidatePopular voteEstimated delegates
CountPercentagePledgedUnpledgedTotal
Bernie Sanders 598,94349.68%67067
Hillary Clinton 581,77548.26%631073
Uncommitted21,6011.79%077
Martin O'Malley (withdrawn)2,3630.20%
Rocky De La Fuente 8700.07%
Total1,205,552100%13017147
Source: The Green Papers
Michigan Democratic primary, March 8, 2016
DistrictDelegatesVotes ClintonVotes SandersVotes QualifiedClinton delegatesSanders delegates
1628,86044,35973,21924
2526,09039,83465,92423
3528,44145,28273,72323
4524,92835,59760,52523
5748,62242,75591,37743
6528,26539,15767,42223
7529,18636,01965,20523
8535,20546,96982,17423
9648,57050,90399,47333
10528,31433,71062,02423
11639,73245,05484,78633
12750,15758,892109,04934
13971,23537,028108,26363
14988,49442,608131,10263
Total85581,775598,9431,180,7184144
PLEO17581,775598,9431,180,71889
At Large28581,775598,9431,180,7181414
Gr. Total130581,775598,9431,180,7186367
Total vote1,205,55248.26%49.68%
Source: Michigan Department of State Election results (District 13 and 14 Wayne County) partial

Results by county

CountyClinton%Sanders%OthersTotalsTurnoutMargin
Alcona 46348.74%45547.89%2694730.60%-0.84%
Alger 38437.07%62260.64%261,03544.61%23.00%
Allegan 3,51138.01%5,56960.28%169,05011.28%22.29%
Alpena 1,10244.26%1,34754.10%262,47836.51%9.89%
Antrim 86736.09%1,49162.07%392,40032.72%26.00%
Arenac 59546.12%66351.40%241,28535.89%5.29%
Baraga 27040.36%37155.46%2566937.93%15.10%
Barry 1,73635.41%3,07862.79%744,89131.62%27.44%
Bay 5,93745.98%6,36349.28%55512,85847.83%3.31%
Benzie 85333.48%1,65064.76%432,54944.66%31.27%
Berrien 6,69851.54%5,96845.93%28512,95436.25%-5.64%
Branch 1,01043.44%1,24653.59%592,31827.23%10.18%
Calhoun 5,23146.36%5,81251.51%20111,24741.28%5.17%
Cass 1,65748.37%1,68449.15%693,41331.70%0.79%
Charlevoix 1,04436.73%1,73060.87%582,83536.23%24.20%
Cheboygan 1,01042.62%1,31855.61%362,36734.21%13.01%
Chippewa 1,23039.83%1,79358.06%553,08138.49%18.27%
Clare 1,09045.76%1,23952.02%432,37535.01%6.27%
Clinton 3,40242.16%4,49655.72%1508,05138.76%13.59%
Crawford 49442.33%63154.07%361,16433.90%11.77%
Delta 1,40943.34%1,70552.45%1223,23939.53%9.14%
Dickinson 90843.51%1,07551.51%992,08530.20%8.01%
Eaton 5,86643.99%7,12553.43%29813,29244.13%9.47%
Emmet 1,36933.91%2,58964.13%684,02914.48%30.28%
Genesee 31,36651.75%28,17146.48%94660,48659.79%-5.28%
Gladwin 98546.33%1,08350.94%462,11733.72%
Gogebic 67844.90%79052.32%381,50946.65%
Grand Traverse 4,14033.19%8,09164.86%20612,44041.56%
Gratiot 1,18538.87%1,81259.43%423,04238.52%
Hillsdale 97740.17%1,38056.74%592,41924.31%
Houghton 1,10934.79%2,03963.96%353,18641.79%
Huron 1,05045.99%1,18451.86%362,27329.30%
Ingham 17,88443.49%22,58054.91%56241,02959.65%
Ionia 1,49133.99%2,81264.11%624,36834.63%
Iosco 1,07746.08%1,20251.43%542,33637.45%
Iron 52748.30%54650.05%181,09436.11%
Isabella 2,03233.19%4,02465.72%556,11449.53%
Jackson 5,28842.72%6,80454.97%23012,32537.16%
Kalamazoo 12,61137.92%20,16260.63%40833,18450.40%
Kalkaska 59035.53%98761.11%301,61030.46%
Kent 26,03236.86%43,44461.52%98770,506
Keweenaw 12839.75%18858.39%6325
Lake 54850.14%51447.03%301,095
Lapeer 3,32540.39%4,65056.49%2218,199
Leelanau 1,45937.67%2,36060.93%443,866
Lenawee 3,45543.73%4,25653.87%1637,877
Livingston 6,70538.14%10,43559.35%39617,539
Luce 16735.46%29161.78%11472
Mackinac 50042.77%63354.15%291,165
Macomb 47,59948.80%46,24847.42%2,53471,008
Manistee 1,12039.63%1,64658.24%512,820
Marquette 3,18835.59%5,53061.74%2038,924
Mason 1,22340.56%1,74157.24%382,772
Mecosta 1,17338.88%1,76858.60%633,007
Menominee 83548.72%80546.97%641,707
Midland 3,09739.81%4,56858.71%887,756
Missaukee 40139.08%59157.60%331,028
Monroe 6,71647.25%6,84248.13%59514,156
Montcalm 1,68136.85%2,76260.54%
Montmorency 39248.70%38347.58%
Muskegon 8,80744.53%10,45652.86%
Newaygo 1,29536.49%2,15560.72%
Oakland 92,30051.38%84,16346.85%
Oceana 79138.21%1,23759.76%
Ogemaw 86246.24%92649.68%
Ontonagon 32744.37%36249.12%
Osceola 67040.39%95357.44%
Oscoda 27344.90%31551.81%
Otsego 78637.97%1,22859.5%
Ottawa 7,47334.39%13,95964.24%
Presque Isle 59247.70%60648.83%
Roscommon 1,16347.33%1,18748.31%
Saginaw 12,49055.32%9,67642.86%
St. Clair 5,97340.96%8,34756.54%
St. Joseph 1,38237.66%2,21960.46%
Sanilac 1,16042.00%1,48553.77%
Schoolcraft 31245.75%34550.59%
Shiawassee 3,03139.38%4,45257.84%
Tuscola 1,98442.65%2,53254.43%
Van Buren 2,48439.73%3,65658.48%
Washtenaw 30,02243.70%38,06255.41%
Wayne 165,81960.11%105,48738.24%
Wexford 90932.95%1,79364.99%
Total581,77548.26%598,94349.68%

Analysis

Bernie Sanders's narrow, one-point win in Michigan was seen as a major upset for the Clinton campaign, since Bernie Sanders had never led a poll in that state. Many theories about the failure of the Michigan polling circulated throughout the media, with most centering on pollsters' erroneous assumptions about the composition of the electorate stemming from the 2008 primary in Michigan not having been contested due to an impasse between the state party and DNC. [73] [74] [75] Although Clinton expanded her delegate lead with a lopsided victory in Mississippi that same day, some journalists suggested Sanders' upset might presage her defeat in other delegate-rich Midwestern Rust Belt states, [76] such as Missouri, Ohio and Illinois, who voted a week later on March 15, along with North Carolina and Florida, where Clinton was more clearly favored. [77] [78]

Sanders beat Clinton among white voters in Michigan, who made up 70% of the electorate, by a margin of 56–42, a margin perhaps larger than the Clinton campaign had anticipated. Independents, who made up 27% of the electorate, backed Sanders 71–28. As was true in other primaries, Clinton won the votes of women and African Americans, but Sanders's margins with Independents and rural voters, mostly working class whites who felt disaffected and disenfranchised by trade deals championed by Hillary Clinton and her husband, [20] were not able to be surpassed, even by Clinton's large leads in major cities such as Detroit and Flint. Among voters who said their primary concern was the U.S. economy, Sanders won 56–40, even though Clinton had hammered him on his 2009 vote against the auto-bailout which she believed would resonate in a state whose economy depended upon manufacturing and the auto industry. Among unions, Sanders had beaten Clinton 49–46, even though in previous contests union households had broken for Clinton. [21] Hand-wringing began on the Clinton side, with the campaign worrying they turned their attention to the general election too soon, as Hillary Clinton had pleaded "the sooner I could become your nominee, the more I could begin to turn my attention to the Republicans." [20]

Sanders thanked supporters after his surprise win, "What tonight means is that the Bernie Sanders campaign, the people's revolution that we're talking about, the political revolution that we're talking about, is strong in every part of the country [...] And, frankly, we believe our strongest areas are yet to happen." [20]

Clinton went on to win the next five states in the Democratic primary, including Ohio, Illinois and Missouri.

Alongside Wisconsin, Michigan was among the two "Blue Wall" states won by Bernie Sanders in the primary election that Donald Trump would ultimately flip in the 2016 United States Presidential Election.

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References

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