2016 Missouri Democratic presidential primary

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2016 Missouri Democratic presidential primary
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  Hillary Clinton by Gage Skidmore 2.jpg Bernie Sanders September 2015 cropped.jpg
Candidate Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders
Home state New York Vermont
Delegate count3635
Popular vote312,285 [1] 310,711
Percentage49.61%49.36%
2016 Missouri Democratic Presidential Primary by county.svg
Results by county
Clinton:     40-50%     50-60%     60-70%
Sanders:     40-50%     50-60%     60-70%
Tie:     40-50%

The 2016 Missouri Democratic presidential primary took place on March 15 in the U.S. state of Missouri as one of the Democratic Party's primaries ahead of the 2016 United States presidential election.

Contents

On the same day, the Democratic Party held primaries in Florida, Illinois, North Carolina and Ohio, while the Republican Party held primaries in the same five states, including their own Missouri primary, plus the Northern Mariana Islands.

Opinion polling

Poll sourceDate1st2nd3rdOther
Official Primary results [2] March 15, 2016Hillary Clinton
49.6%		Bernie Sanders
49.4%		Others / Uncommitted
1.0%
Public Policy Polling [3]

Margin of error: ± 3.4%
Sample size: 839

March 11–12, 2016Bernie Sanders
47%		Hillary Clinton
46%		Others / Undecided
7%
RABA Research [4]

Margin of error: ± 4%
Sample size: 670

March 8–10, 2016Hillary Clinton
44%		Bernie Sanders
40%		Others / Undecided
16%
Fort Hayes State University [5]

Margin of error: ± 8%
Sample size: 145

March 3–10, 2016Hillary Clinton
47%		Bernie Sanders
40%		Others / Undecided 13%
Public Policy Polling [6]

Margin of error: 5.2%
Sample size: 352

August 7–9, 2015Hillary Clinton
53%		Bernie Sanders
25%		Martin O'Malley
5%		Jim Webb 5%, Lincoln Chafee 1%, Not sure 12%

Results

Clinton went into election night in Missouri down to Senator Sanders in the polls. Throughout the evening Sanders maintained a lead over Clinton. However St. Louis County and Jackson County, home of a large section of Kansas City, came in late and it was just enough to push Clinton over the finish line. Senator Sanders refused to request a recount citing concerns over wasting taxpayer dollars. [7]

Missouri Democratic primary, March 15, 2016
CandidatePopular voteEstimated delegates
CountPercentagePledgedUnpledgedTotal
Hillary Clinton 312,28549.61%361147
Bernie Sanders 310,71149.36%35237
Henry Hewes 6500.10%
Martin O'Malley (withdrawn)4420.07%
Jon Adams4330.07%
Rocky De La Fuente 3450.05%
Willie Wilson 3070.05%
Keith Russell Judd 2880.05%
John Wolfe Jr. 2470.04%
Uncommitted3,7170.59%000
Total629,425100%711384
Source: [8] [9]
State of Missouri Democratic primary, March 15, 2016
DistrictDelegatesVotes ClintonVotes SandersVotes QualifiedClinton delegatesSanders delegates
110856565956714522364
2646785496619644633
3528983356646464723
4526178334285960623
5751696459749767043
6528786321296091523
7421574313895296322
8520944212594220323
Total47310,602309,071619,6732324
PLEO9310,602309,071619,67354
At Large15310,602309,071619,67387
Gr. Total71310,602309,071619,6733635
Total vote626,07549.61%49.37%
Source: Missouri Secretary of State Jason Kander statewide results and Missouri Secretary of State Jason Kander District results

Results by county

County [10] Clinton %Sanders %Others%TotalsTEVTO%
Adair 79940.7%1,15358.8%15,231
Andrew 49839.9%72858.4%12,188
Atchison 14144.5%17354.6%3,815
Audrain 74949.6%72848.2%
Barry 79647.0%87451.6%
Barton 20548.1%21450.2%
Bates 51843.5%63253.1%
Benton 66953.3%56745.2%
Bollinger 24253.8%20345.1%
Boone 9,62838.7%15,07660.6%
Buchanan 3,44344.5%4,14853.7%
Butler 88952.7%76645.4%
Caldwell 24443.2%31455.6%
Callaway 1,37844.5%1,67854.2%
Camden 1,38848.9%1,41949.9%
Cape Girardeau 2,07646.6%2,33552.4%
Carroll 23343.2%25550.7%
Carter 13848.6%14250.0%
Cass 3,76546.8%4,18552.1%
Cedar 33247.0%36151.1%
Chariton 32152.1%27444.5%
Christian 2,14640.8%3,07358.4%
Clark 20251.4%17845.3%
Clay 10,63045.5%12,54253.7%
Clinton 76546.2%85251.4%
Cole 2,79845.3%3,30353.5%
Cooper 51650.1%50148.6%
Crawford 52241.2%71256.2%
Dade 20148.1%21351.0%
Dallas 39742.9%51555.7%
Daviess 23951.0%22147.1%
DeKalb 22139.0%32857.8%
Dent 32740.5%44955.6%
Douglas 26840.5%38458.1%
Dunklin 72460.9%44837.7%
Franklin 3,70142.9%4,78455.4%
Gasconade 40143.8%50755.3%
Gentry 17148.0%17649.4%
Greene 10,91038.3%17,40361.1%
Grundy 21944.6%26253.4%
Harrison 15848.5%16350.0%
Henry 78051.7%69646.1%
Hickory 7353.7%6044.1%
Holt 12852.2%11044.9%
Howard 41348.8%40848.2%
Howell 83340.2%1,20958.4%
Iron 34943.8%42653.5%
Jackson 48,86052.9%42,82346.4%
Jasper 2,28937.1%3,82662.0%
Jefferson 9,63744.2%11,83054.3%
Johnson 1,47342.5%1,94456.2%
Knox 13456.8%9439.8%
Laclede 73743.6%92754.8%
Lafayette 1,17346.2%1,32452.2%
Lawrence 87245.3%1,02853.5%
Lewis 23948.3%23948.3%
Lincoln 1,56143.1%1,97654.6%
Linn 43650.5%40947.3%
Livingston 39748.5%39848.6%
Macon 42143.7%50552.4%
Madison 34649.4%33447.6%
Maries 30550.2%29147.9%
Marion 92554.7%70741.8%
McDonald 36447.6%38550.3%
Mercer 6951.9%6347.4%
Miller 43246.5%48051.7%
Mississippi 48667.2%20928.9%
Moniteau 34044.6%40953.7%
Monroe 25250.9%22645.7%
Montgomery 33049.4%32448.5%
Morgan 55451.5%50647.1%
New Madrid 69164.2%36033.5%
Newton 1,24043.9%1,55355.0%
Nodaway 61641.6%83156.1%
Oregon 31953.0%27145.0%
Osage 31447.7%32649.5%
Ozark 21742.1%29356.8%
Pemiscot 60269.4%25028.8%
Perry 43649.3%43749.4%
Pettis 1,26544.8%1,50953.5%
Phelps 1,13738.4%1,74458.9%
Pike 66157.0%47541.0%
Platte 4,64547.1%5,14252.1%
Polk 74446.1%85152.7%
Pulaski 86044.6%1,02052.8%
Putnam 10246.8%10849.5%
Ralls 41554.5%31140.9%
Randolph 64744.9%75052.0%
Ray 94548.2%96849.5%
Reynolds 23047.1%22846.7%
Ripley 25949.1%25047.3%
Saline 91051.4%80545.5%
Schuyler 12449.2%11947.2%
Scotland 10844.1%13454.7%
Scott 1,06755.0%83443.0%
Shannon 31750.6%29146.5%
Shelby 24051.1%20042.6%
St. Charles 17,80544.8%21,59354.3%
St. Clair 34049.9%32047.0%
St. Francois 1,93945.3%2,26753.0%
St. Louis (City) 34,45855.0%27,74844.3%
St. Louis (County) 89,37355.3%71,13444.0%
Ste. Genevieve 84250.3%79847.6%
Stoddard 67456.6%48941.1%
Stone 80646.9%88551.5%
Sullivan 17759.8%11237.8%
Taney 1,19946.2%1,37352.9%
Texas 60346.3%66651.2%
Vernon 49047.8%51850.5%
Warren 98644.0%1,22254.5%
Washington 75451.4%66445.3%
Wayne 39357.8%26438.8%
Webster 94044.0%1,17054.8%
Worth 5941.5%7653.5%
Wright 40250.5%38548.4%
Total310,60249.6%309,07149.4%6,429

Analysis

Hillary Clinton, having narrowly lost the Missouri primary to Barack Obama eight years prior, managed a slim 0.2-percentage-point-victory over an increasingly popular insurgent Bernie Sanders in 2016. With Sanders winning men 56-44, voters under the age of 45 67-32, and white voters 54-45, Clinton won among women 54-44, older voters 62-37, and African American voters 67-32.

Sanders won among voters who made less than $50k and $100k per year, with Clinton winning more affluent voters. And while Sanders won 67-33 among self-identified Independents who made up 24% of the electorate, Clinton won 55-44 among the 74% of voters who identified as Democrats. While Sanders won among liberals 53-46, Clinton won moderates and conservatives 55-44. Sanders was able to win 54-45 among union households, a key voting bloc in the industrial Midwest, and he won 53-46 among those who believe trade with other countries takes away U.S. jobs; trade deals championed by Bill and Hillary Clinton have not always gone over well in the industrial Rust Belt. In terms of each voters' family financial situation, voters who were "getting ahead" or "holding steady" opted for Clinton, while those who felt they were "falling behind" overwhelmingly favored Sanders. [11]

Clinton won a large victory in St. Louis City and St. Louis County (she won 55-44 according to exit polls, likely thanks to her ardent African American support), and she also managed a 51-48 victory in Kansas City on the western side of the state. Sanders, meanwhile, won victories in Columbia and Springfield, keeping the race close statewide, and won in the largely white, rural and more conservative counties, including areas of Northwestern Missouri bordering Kansas and Nebraska, and Southwestern Missouri bordering Oklahoma. All three neighboring states are Great Plains states that Sanders won earlier in March.

See also

References

  1. ↑ "Missouri Secretary of State - Official Primary Results". Archived from the original on April 12, 2019. Retrieved June 17, 2016.
  2. ↑ Official Primary results
  3. ↑ "Midwestern States a Toss Up Tuesday" (PDF).
  4. ↑ "Missouri Poll Results". RABA Research. Retrieved March 11, 2016.
  5. ↑ "Missouri Poll Results". Fort Hayes State University. Retrieved March 12, 2016.
  6. ↑ "Trump Up Big in Missouri; GOP Hopefuls Lead Clinton in State" (PDF). Public Policy Polling. Retrieved August 12, 2015.
  7. ↑ Dann, Carrie (March 17, 2016). "Sanders Concedes Missouri Primary, Won't Seek Recount" . Retrieved December 2, 2019.
  8. ↑ The Green Papers
  9. ↑ Missouri Secretary of State - Official Primary Results
  10. ↑ "2016 Election Center". CNN . Retrieved June 4, 2018.
  11. ↑ "2016 Election Center". CNN. Retrieved October 10, 2016.
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