2016 Ohio Democratic presidential primary

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2016 Ohio Democratic presidential primary
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  Hillary Clinton by Gage Skidmore 2.jpg Bernie Sanders September 2015 cropped.jpg
Candidate Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders
Home state New York Vermont
Delegate count8162
Popular vote696,681535,395
Percentage56.12%43.13%
2016 Ohio Democartic Presidential Primary by county.svg
Results by county:
Clinton:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%
Sanders:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%

The 2016 Ohio Democratic presidential primary took place on March 15 in the U.S. state of Ohio as one of the Democratic Party's primaries prior to the 2016 presidential election.

Contents

The same day, the Democratic Party held primaries in Florida, Illinois, Missouri and North Carolina, while the Republican Party held primaries in the same five states and a caucus in the Northern Mariana Islands, as well as their own Ohio primary.

Clinton handily won the primary, putting her upset Rust Belt loss in Michigan behind her. [1] She earned congressional endorsements from Reps. Tim Ryan, Joyce Beatty, Marcia Fudge and Sen. Sherrod Brown, while Sanders earned one Ohio backer, Rep. Marcy Kaptur. [2]

Background

By the time Ohio held its primaries, voters from 21 states and two territories already cast their vote for the presidential nomination of the Democratic Party. As of the March 12 elections, Hillary Clinton was projected to have earned 775 pledged delegates to Bernie Sanders' 552. [3] Clinton gained significant victories in the Southern United States, often described as her "firewall", [4] including landslide victories in Mississippi and Alabama and Georgia. [5] [6] Meanwhile, Bernie Sanders gained victories in the Midwestern United States, [7] where Ohio resides, including an upset victory in neighboring Michigan on March 8. [8] [9] After the fact, Sanders' campaign took advantage of the momentum gained from the Michigan win, by targeting Illinois, Missouri and Ohio in the March 15 elections, hoping to repeat the same result. Sanders stated that "Not only is Michigan the gateway to the rest of the industrial Midwest, the results there show that we are a national campaign." [10]

Before the Michigan primaries, Clinton and Sanders had debated over economic policies relating to the industrial midwest states and the so-called "rust belt". The disagreements centered around trade deals, including the Trans-Pacific Partnership and Clinton's past support of the North American Free Trade Agreement, and its effect on economies such as Michigan and Ohio. [11] [12]

Controversy

Ohio is one of at least seventeen states that has laws allowing voters who are 17 years of age, but will be 18 by the time of the general election, to vote in the presidential primaries. [13] However, Ohio Secretary of State Jon A. Husted had announced in December 2015 that 17 year olds would be outright barred from participating in the 2016 primaries. The rationale for the decision was based on an interpretation of the law in which 17 year olds could "nominate" officials for office, but not "elect". In the case of the presidential primaries, by definition, voters would be electing officials - delegates to each party's presidential nominating convention. [14] The decision was met with criticism by the public, after it was brought to mainstream attention by Representative Kathleen Clyde, after she condemned the rule in a statement released on March 5. Clyde described it as a "underhanded, backroom attack" against young voters. [15] Nine teenagers filed a lawsuit with the Ohio Courts of Common Pleas in Franklin County over the decision, stating that the decision contradicted state law and a decision by the Supreme Court of Ohio that allowed 17 year olds turning 18 by the general election to vote. [16]

Bernie Sanders' campaign, whose voter base includes the majority of young voters, [17] [18] also filed a lawsuit against the decision, accusing Husted of "arbitrarily" and "unconsititutionally" discriminating against young African-American and Latino voters, citing data from the 2010 United States Census that shows younger voters in Ohio where mostly African-American and Latino. [19] [20] Husted, in response to Sanders' lawsuit, said in a public statement that he welcomed the lawsuit, further stating that "I am very happy to be sued on this issue because the law is crystal clear", [19] though, he later spoke out negatively against the lawsuit, claiming that it was "a last-minute political act", designed to "draw attention to his campaign." [21] Many Ohio officials, past and present, such as former Ohio Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, came out in support of Sanders' lawsuit, [22] and had attracted protests by not only Bernie Sanders supporters, but also Donald Trump supporters as well. [23] In a decision handed down on March 11, an Ohio state judge ruled in favour of both lawsuits by the teenage group and the Sanders campaign, effectively lifting the ban on 17 year olds from voting in the Ohio presidential primaries. [24] Husted initially announced that he would appeal the ruling, [25] however, after learning that such an appeal wouldn't be heard by the court until the day before the primaries, he retracted his intent to appeal. [26]

Debates and forums

March 13, 2016 – Columbus, Ohio

The ninth forum was held at 8:00 pm EDT on March 13, 2016, at the campus of Ohio State University in Columbus, Ohio, and aired on CNN. [27]

March 14, 2016 – Columbus, Ohio and Springfield, Illinois

The tenth forum was held at 6:00 pm EDT on March 14, 2016, at the campus of Ohio State University in Columbus, Ohio, and at the Old State Capitol State Historic Site in Springfield, Illinois. It aired on MSNBC. The first section of the town hall with Bernie Sanders was moderated by Chuck Todd; the second section of the town hall with Hillary Clinton was moderated by Chris Matthews.

Opinion polling

Poll sourceDate1st2ndOther
Primary results [28] March 15, 2016Hillary Clinton
56.1%		Bernie Sanders
43.1%		Other
0.8%
ARG [29]

Margin of error: ± 5.0%
Sample size: 400

March 12–13, 2016Hillary Clinton
52%		Bernie Sanders
45%		Others / Undecided
3%
Monmouth [30]

Margin of error: ± 5.6%
Sample size: 302

March 11–13, 2016Hillary Clinton
54%		Bernie Sanders
40%		Others / Undecided
6%
Quinnipiac [31]

Margin of error: ± 4.2%
Sample size: 543

March 8–13, 2016Hillary Clinton
51%		Bernie Sanders
46%		Others / Undecided
4%
Public Policy Polling [32]

Margin of error: ± 4.4%
Sample size: 502

March 11–12, 2016Hillary Clinton
46%		Bernie Sanders
41%		Others / Undecided
13%
CBS News/YouGov [33]

Margin of error: ± 5.3%
Sample size: 777

March 9–11, 2016Hillary Clinton
52%		Bernie Sanders
43%		Others / Undecided
5%
NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist [34]

Margin of error: ± 4.6%
Sample size: 453

March 4–10, 2016Hillary Clinton
58%		Bernie Sanders
38%		Others / Undecided
4%
Quinnipiac [35]

Margin of error: ± 4.3%
Sample size: 521

March 2–7, 2016Hillary Clinton
52%		Bernie Sanders
43%		Others / Undecided
5%
Public Polling Policy [36]

Margin of error: ± 4.4%
Sample size: 508

March 4–6, 2016Hillary Clinton
56%		Bernie Sanders
35%		Others / Undecided
9%
CNN/ORC [37]

Margin of error: ± 5.5%
Sample size: 294

March 2–6, 2016Hillary Clinton
63%		Bernie Sanders
33%		Others / Undecided
4%
Quinnipiac University [38]

Margin of error: ± 4.3%
Sample size: 518

February 16–20, 2016Hillary Clinton
55%		Bernie Sanders
40%		Others / Undecided
5%
BW Community Research Institute [39]

Margin of error: ± 5%
Sample size: 385

February 11–20, 2016Bernie Sanders
45%		Hillary Clinton
44%		Others / Undecided
11%
Public Policy Polling [40]

Margin of error: ± ?%
Sample size: 1,138

January 12–14, 2016Hillary Clinton
53%		Bernie Sanders
37%		Not sure 10%
Polls in 2015
Poll sourceDate1st2nd3rdOther
Quinnipiac University [41]

Margin of error: ± 4.9%
Sample size: 396

September 25 – October 5, 2015Hillary Clinton
40%		Joe Biden
21%		Bernie Sanders
19%		Undecided 11%
Quinnipiac University [42]

Margin of error: ± 5.2%
Sample size: 353

August 7–18, 2015Hillary Clinton
47%		Bernie Sanders
17%		Joe Biden
14%		Jim Webb 1%, Martin O'Malley 0%, Lincoln Chafee 0%, Other 3%, Wouldn't vote 6%, Undecided 12%
Quinnipiac University [43]

Margin of error: ± 5%
Sample size: 388

June 4–15, 2015Hillary Clinton
60%		Joe Biden
13%		Bernie Sanders
10%		Martin O'Malley 1%, Lincoln Chafee 0%, Jim Webb 0%, Other 1%, Wouldn't vote 3%, Undecided 11%
Public Policy Polling [44]

Margin of error: ± 5.2%
Sample size: 360

June 4–7, 2015Hillary Clinton
61%		Bernie Sanders
13%		Michael Bloomberg
7%		Lincoln Chafee 2%, Martin O'Malley 2%, Jim Webb 1%, Not sure 13%
Quinnipiac University [45]

Margin of error: ± 5.4%
Sample size: 324

March 17–28, 2015Hillary Clinton
54%		Elizabeth Warren
14%		Joe Biden
9%		Martin O'Malley 3%, Bernie Sanders 3%, Jim Webb 2%, Other 1%, Wouldn't vote 3%, Undecided 12%
Joe Biden
34%		Elizabeth Warren
25%		Martin O'Malley
5%		Bernie Sanders 5%, Jim Webb 2%, Other 1%, Wouldn't vote 3%, Undecided 24%
Quinnipiac University [46]

Margin of error: ± 5.5%
Sample size: 315

January 22 – February 1, 2015Hillary Clinton
51%		Elizabeth Warren
14%		Joe Biden
7%		Bernie Sanders 5%, Martin O'Malley 1%, Jim Webb 0%, Other 2%, Wouldn't vote 4%, Undecided 15%
Joe Biden
28%		Elizabeth Warren
24%		Bernie Sanders
7%		Martin O'Malley 2%, Jim Webb 2%, Other 4%, Wouldn't vote 5%, Undecided 28%

Results

Ohio Democratic primary, March 15, 2016
CandidatePopular voteEstimated delegates
CountPercentagePledgedUnpledgedTotal
Hillary Clinton 696,68156.12%811495
Bernie Sanders 535,39543.13%62163
Rocky De La Fuente 9,4020.76%
Uncommitted—22
Total1,241,478100%14317160
Source: [47]
Ohio Democratic primary, March 15, 2016
DistrictDelegates availableVotesDelegates
ClintonSandersDe La FuenteTotalQualified totalClintonSanders
1442,60029,74727272,61972,34722
2439,06130,59748370,14169,65822
31259,74043,898302103,940103,63875
4429,31725,83167755,82555,14822
5432,06832,27954464,89164,34722
6432,61127,4131,54561,56960,02422
7433,59627,82374562,16461,41922
8426,46321,87941348,75548,34222
9855,40142,14168098,22297,54253
10441,64131,08935073,08072,73022
111791,23543,124382134,741134,359125
12438,04634,10935272,50772,15522
13856,93345,9811,055103,969102,91444
14443,31733,62753777,48176,94422
15433,76432,51651666,79666,28022
16440,88833,34154974,77874,22922
Total93696,681535,3959,4021,241,4781,232,0765241
PLEO19118
At Large311813
Gr. Total1438162
Total vote56.12%43.13%0.76%100.00%99.24%
Source: Ohio Secretary of State Presidential Preference Primary Precinct Level Official Results (Democrat)

Results by county

County [48] ClintonVotesSandersVotes
Adams 56.8%87741.3%638
Allen 56.6%3,67042.1%2,730
Ashland 49.1%1,45149.5%1,465
Ashtabula 54.9%5,32043.9%4,256
Athens 38.2%3,53361.2%5,663
Auglaize 51.0%1,03147.1%952
Belmont 53.1%3,98243.5%3,263
Belmont 58.3%1,56239.8%1,067
Butler 53.4%12,87446.0%11,102
Carroll 51.4%1,08446.2%976
Champaign 51.9%1,22646.6%1,099
Clark 58.7%7,10740.5%4,905
Clermont 49.4%5,64250.0%5,710
Clinton 48.5%90950.3%942
Columbiana 52.6%4,10645.8%3,573
Coshocton 53.6%1,35844.5%1,128
Crawford 51.4%1,34443.6%1,141
Cuyahoga 63.2%125,91436.3%72,297
Darke 54.2%1,24643.4%999
Defiance 50.6%1,50748.2%1,435
Delaware 57.9%9,55241.8%6,891
Erie 55.3%5,44943.6%4,299
Fairfield 55.3%6,40843.8%5,074
Fayette 58.3%76040.9%533
Franklin 55.3%84,65444.4%67,855
Fulton 48.7%1,48050.3%1,528
Gallia 47.7%94548.8%966
Geauga 54.0%4,17145.5%3,516
Greene 49.4%6,67250.0%6,759
Guernsey 53.0%1,44045.2%1,228
Hamilton 59.5%57,68740.2%38,956
Hancock 44.9%2,06254.2%2,490
Hardin 52.6%77145.7%669
Harrison 53.2%81843.8%674
Henry 50.0%97748.7%952
Highland 55.2%1,11943.1%873
Hocking 52.3%1,20446.0%1,060
Holmes 48.8%56148.5%558
Huron 50.9%2,03647.7%1,907
Jackson 58.3%1,01040.1%694
Jefferson 54.7%4,32842.3%3,353
Knox 48.5%1,90250.6%1,987
Lake 54.3%12,50644.9%10,351
Lawrence 55.4%2,65441.6%1,994
Licking 53.3%6,78545.9%5,849
Logan 49.6%1,01248.9%998
Lorain 56.1%21,14442.9%16,154
Lucas 56.9%32,13742.7%24,111
Madison 56.8%1,22542.8%923
Mahoning 59.3%21,00039.7%14,066
Marion 56.9%2,58542.0%1,909
Medina 53.1%7,91346.3%6,888
Meigs 49.9%80047.2%757
Mercer 53.5%1,03744.4%860
Miami 53.2%3,15545.6%2,706
Monroe 48.1%1,19145.9%1,138
Montgomery 59.4%33,35240.1%22,538
Morgan 56.2%56642.7%430
Morrow 52.1%1,16446.3%1,035
Muskingum 56.6%3,06642.4%2,299
Noble 53.9%52241.7%404
Ottawa 55.4%2,56643.4%2,012
Paulding 55.8%72341.7%540
Perry 56.7%1,46541.4%1,070
Pickaway 55.6%2,09743.2%1,631
Pike 56.8%1,33640.3%949
Portage 49.0%8,66550.2%8,877
Preble 52.2%1,17646.4%1,046
Putnam 45.3%81152.3%936
Richland 55.5%5,22543.3%4,080
Ross 57.2%3,58241.4%2,595
Sandusky 53.4%2,86645.7%2,456
Scioto 53.7%3,49944.6%2,903
Seneca 49.6%2,08149.2%2,064
Shelby 52.3%1,28445.2%1,110
Stark 56.5%21,51542.6%16,235
Summit 56.6%38,87442.9%29,451
Trumbull 53.9%17,90344.4%14,726
Tuscarawas 51.6%4,47946.3%4,019
Union 50.8%1,58048.3%1,501
Van Wert 51.9%71045.4%621
Vinton 49.5%51547.7%496
Warren 53.3%6,97046.3%6,054
Washington 50.5%2,55747.6%2,411
Wayne 51.3%3,44848.0%3,225
Williams 45.8%1,00752.6%1,156
Wood 45.8%6,10853.7%7,165
Wyandot 49.7%66148.6%647
Total56.5%679,26642.7%513,549

Analysis

Clinton received a commanding win in the Ohio primary which mirrored her 2008 performance. Clinton won the white vote 53–47 which comprised 74% of the Ohio electorate. She also won the African American vote, 71–28. And while Sanders won men 51–48 and voters under the age of 45 65–34, Clinton won women 63–36 (including white women 61–38 who made up 41% of the electorate, and won both married and unmarried women) and she won older voters 70–29. She swept all income levels and educational attainment levels in Ohio. She also won unions, an important demographic in the industrial Rust Belt, by a margin of 55–45.

In terms of political ideology, Clinton swept all groups: liberals, moderates, and conservatives. She won Democrats 64–35, but lost Independents 66–33 to Sanders.

Clinton swept most counties in the state, winning urban areas 61–38, suburban areas 63–36, and rural areas by a modest 51–48. Clinton won in the Cleveland area 63–35, in Northern Ohio 57–43, in the Ohio Valley and Western Ohio 52–47, in the Columbus area 52–47, and in Cincinnati/Dayton, 55–45. [49]

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References

  1. ↑ Stein, Jeff (March 15, 2016). "Hillary Clinton holds off surging Bernie Sanders to win Ohio". Vox. Retrieved January 23, 2021.
  2. ↑ Gass, Nick. "Hillary Clinton wins Ohio Democratic primary". POLITICO. Retrieved January 23, 2021.
  3. ↑ "Who's Winning the Presidential Delegate Count?". Bloomberg. Bloomberg L.P. March 12, 2016. Archived from the original on March 12, 2016. Retrieved March 13, 2016.
  4. ↑ Tani, Maxwell (February 28, 2016). "It's now clear that Hillary Clinton's 'firewall' strategy is alive and well". Business Insider . Axel Springer SE . Retrieved March 13, 2016.
  5. ↑ Dowling, Brian (March 6, 2016). "Hillary Clinton still strong in South, while Bernie Sanders stays alive". Boston Herald . Herald Media, Inc. Retrieved March 13, 2016.
  6. ↑ Bump, Philip (March 8, 2016). "Hillary Clinton's stunningly large win in Mississippi". The Washington Post . Nash Holdings LLC . Retrieved March 13, 2016.
  7. ↑ Riddell, Kelly (March 5, 2016). "Bernie Sanders' campaign gets needed boost with Kansas, Nebraska wins". The Washington Times . Operations Holdings (The Washington Times, LLC). Retrieved March 13, 2016.
  8. ↑ Nelson, Colleen McCain; Nicholas, Peter; Meckler, Laura (March 9, 2016). "Bernie Sanders Scores Upset in Michigan Democratic Primary". The Wall Street Journal . News Corp . Retrieved March 13, 2016.
  9. ↑ Roberts, Dan; Jacobs, Ben; Gambino, Lauren (March 10, 2016). "Bernie Sanders beats Hillary Clinton in stunning Michigan primary upset". The Guardian . Guardian Media Group . Retrieved March 13, 2016.
  10. ↑ Roberts, Dan; Gambino, Lauren (March 10, 2016). "Sanders optimistic for more midwest upsets after shock Michigan win". The Guardian . Guardian Media Group . Retrieved March 13, 2016.
  11. ↑ Meckler, Laura; Nicholas, Peter (March 3, 2016). "Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton Spar Over Trade in Midwest". The Wall Street Journal . News Corp . Retrieved March 13, 2016.
  12. ↑ Davis, Owen (March 7, 2016). "Free Trade And Flint: What Sanders And Clinton Got Right And Wrong On Nafta". International Business Times . IBT Media . Retrieved March 13, 2016.
  13. ↑ "Primaries - Where Can 17-Year-Olds Vote in Presidential Primaries or Caucuses?". FairVote. Archived from the original on March 12, 2016. Retrieved March 13, 2016.
  14. ↑ Perkins, William T. (March 5, 2016). "17-year-olds shut out of presidential primary". The Columbus Dispatch . New Media Investment Group . Retrieved March 13, 2016.
  15. ↑ Naymik, Mark (March 8, 2016). "Ohio 17-year-olds' presidential picks in Tuesday's primary won't count but pressure building to change the rule". Cleveland.com (The Plain Dealer). Advance Publications / Newhouse Newspapers. Retrieved March 13, 2016.
  16. ↑ O'Brien, Brendan (March 8, 2016). "Ohio 17-year-olds sue state for right to vote in primary". Reuters . Thomson Reuters . Retrieved March 13, 2016.
  17. ↑ Heller, Nathan (August 25, 2015). "Feeling the Bern With the Youth Vote". The New Yorker . Advance Publications . Retrieved March 13, 2016.
  18. ↑ Silver, Nate (February 8, 2016). "Why Young Democrats Love Bernie Sanders". FiveThirtyEight . ESPN Inc. Retrieved March 13, 2016.
  19. 1 2 Alcindor, Yamiche (March 8, 2016). "Bernie Sanders Sues Over Ohio Rule Barring 17-Year-Olds From Primary". The New York Times . Retrieved March 13, 2016.
  20. ↑ Morice, Jane (March 8, 2016). "Bernie Sanders' campaign files young voters lawsuit against Ohio Secretary of State Jon Husted". Cleveland.com (The Plain Dealer). Advance Publications / Newhouse Newspapers. Retrieved March 13, 2016.
  21. ↑ Gaudiano, Nicole (March 11, 2016). "Ohio official calls Bernie Sanders' lawsuit a 'political act'". USA Today . Gannett Company . Retrieved March 13, 2016.
  22. ↑ Larson, Erik (March 12, 2016). "Sanders Preparing for Battle Over Ohio's 17-Year-Old Voters". Bloomberg. Bloomberg L.P. Retrieved March 13, 2016.
  23. ↑ Atkin, Emily (March 11, 2016). "Meet The Young Donald Trump Supporters Who Drove 100 Miles To Protest With Bernie Sanders Supporters". ThinkProgress . Center for American Progress . Retrieved March 13, 2016.
  24. ↑ Atkinson, Khorri (March 12, 2016). "Sanders campaign praises Ohio ruling that allows 17-year-olds to vote". MSNBC . NBCUniversal . Retrieved March 13, 2016.
  25. ↑ Palmer, Kim (March 11, 2016). "17-Year-Olds Should Be Allowed To Vote In Ohio Primary, Judge Rules". The Huffington Post . AOL . Retrieved March 13, 2016.
  26. ↑ LoBianco, Tom (March 12, 2016). "In victory for Sanders, Ohio judge says 17-year-olds can vote in primary". CNN . Turner Broadcasting System (Time Warner). Retrieved March 13, 2016.
  27. ↑ "CNN, TV One to host presidential town hall". CNN. March 13, 2016. Retrieved March 13, 2016.
  28. ↑ Primary results
  29. ↑ "ARG Ohio Poll March 12-13, 2016".
  30. ↑ "OHIO: KASICH, TRUMP IN GOP SQUEAKER; CLINTON LEADS IN DEM RACE" (PDF).
  31. ↑ "March 14, 2016 - Trump Tops Rubio In Florida, Ties Kasich In Ohio, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Clinton Leads Sanders In Two Critical Primaries".
  32. ↑ "Midwestern States a Toss Up Tuesday" (PDF).
  33. ↑ "Poll: Trump and Kasich neck-and-neck in Ohio; Trump leads in Florida".
  34. ↑ "Polls: Trump Ahead in Florida, Illinois; Kasich Leads in Ohio".
  35. ↑ "WOMEN DRIVE CLINTON TO 2-1 LEAD AMONG FLORIDA DEMS, QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL FINDS; SHE HAS 9-POINT LEAD IN OHIO" (PDF).
  36. ↑ Public Polling Policy
  37. ↑ "CNN/ORC Poll: Trump, Clinton leading in Florida, Ohio".
  38. ↑ Quinnipiac University
  39. ↑ BW Community Research Institute
  40. ↑ Public Policy Polling
  41. ↑ "2016 Presidential Swing State Polls Poll – October 7, 2015 – Biden, Carson Are Hot In Flori | Quinnipiac University Connecticut". Quinnipiac.edu. October 7, 2015. Retrieved January 23, 2016.
  42. ↑ "Quinnipiac poll" (PDF). Quinnipiac.edu. Retrieved August 20, 2015.
  43. ↑ "Quinnipiac poll" (PDF). quinnipiac.edu. Retrieved July 9, 2015.
  44. ↑ Public Policy Polling
  45. ↑ Quinnipiac University
  46. ↑ Quinnipiac University
  47. ↑ The Green Papers
  48. ↑ "2016 Election Center". CNN . Retrieved June 4, 2018.
  49. ↑ "2016 Election Center". CNN. Retrieved September 25, 2016.
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