2018 Ohio gubernatorial election

Last updated

2018 Ohio gubernatorial election [1]
Flag of Ohio.svg
  2014 November 6, 2018 2022  
Turnout55.79% Increase2.svg15.14pp
  RMD-Official-Headshot (cropped).jpg Richard Cordray official portrait (cropped 2).jpg
Nominee Mike DeWine Richard Cordray
Party Republican Democratic
Running mate Jon Husted Betty Sutton
Popular vote2,235,8252,070,046
Percentage50.40%46.67%

2018 Ohio gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
2018 Ohio gubernatorial election results map by congressional district.svg
OH Governor 2018.svg
DeWine:     30–40%     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     90–100%
Cordray:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     90–100%
Tie:     40–50%     No votes

Governor before election

John Kasich
Republican

Elected Governor

Mike DeWine
Republican

The 2018 Ohio gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the next governor of Ohio, concurrently with the election of Ohio's Class I U.S. Senate seat, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various Ohio and local elections. Incumbent Republican governor John Kasich was term-limited and could not seek re-election for a third consecutive term.

Contents

Republicans nominated Ohio Attorney General and former U.S. senator Mike DeWine, while Democrats nominated former Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Director and former Ohio attorney general Richard Cordray. This was the second contest between DeWine and Cordray, following the 2010 attorney general election, which DeWine won, 47.5% to 46.3%.

In 2018, DeWine defeated Cordray 50.4% to 46.7%, in what was considered a minor upset. Despite Cordray's loss, he became the first Democratic gubernatorial candidate to win Cincinnati's Hamilton County since Dick Celeste in 1982. Likewise, DeWine became the first Republican to win in the historically Democratic Monroe County in a gubernatorial election since 2002 as the county took a sharp turn to the right. With Democratic senator Sherrod Brown winning re-election in the same year, this was the first election since 1974 in which Ohio simultaneously voted for a gubernatorial nominee and a U.S. Senate nominee of opposite parties.

DeWine and Husted took office on January 14, 2019.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

Withdrew

Endorsements

Mike DeWine

Notable individuals

U.S. representatives

State senators

State representatives

County parties

State parties

Organizations

  • Buckeye Firearms Association [36]

Newspapers

Jim Renacci (withdrawn)

Organizations

Notable individuals

Mary Taylor

U.S. senators

Governors

Lieutenant governors

Statewide officials

Notable individuals

State senators

State representatives

County Parties

Party leaders

Organizations

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Mike
DeWine
Mary
Taylor
OtherUndecided
Baldwin Wallace University [61] April 24 – May 2, 201832352%24%25%
Remington Research Group (R-Taylor) [62] April 10, 20181,064± 3.1%42%32%26%
Fallon Research [63] April 4–7, 2018502± 4.4%43%26%31%
SurveyUSA [64] March 16–20, 2018541± 5.8%50%18%31%
TRZ Communications (R-WTPC) [65] February 17, 20181,152± 3.0%61%39%
35%16%15%33%
Fallon Research [66] January 16–19, 201828654%14%32%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Mike
DeWine
Jon
Husted
Jim
Renacci
Mary
Taylor
Undecided
Axis Research (R-Taylor) [67] August 13–15, 2017602± 4.1%36%20%8%17%19%
The Tarrance Group (R) [68] July 24–26, 2017800± 3.5%42%18%5%11%24%
49%29%21%
Luntz Global [69] June 12, 2017500± 4.4%27%13%3%8%
Gravis Marketing [70] April 27 – May 2, 2017686± 2.7%31%14%6%10%40%
The Tarrance Group (R) [71] January 23–26, 2017800± 3.5%47%18%4%10%22%

Results

Results by county:
.mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{}
DeWine
50-60%
60-70%
70-80%
Taylor
50-60% Ohio gubernatorial Republican primary, 2018.svg
Results by county:
  DeWine
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  Taylor
  •   50–60%
Republican primary results [72]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Mike DeWine 494,766 59.8
Republican Mary Taylor332,27340.2
Total votes827,039 100.0

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

Failed to qualify for ballot

  • Jon Heavey, physician [85]
  • Dave Kiefer, former Wayne County Commissioner and Republican candidate for state representative in 2016 [86]

Withdrew

Endorsements

Richard Cordray

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

Governors

State representatives

Mayors

City Council members

County officials

Labor unions

Organizations

Notable individuals

Newspapers

Dennis Kucinich

Organizations

Governors

U.S. representatives

State senators

County officials

City Council members

Notable individuals

Newspapers

Joe Schiavoni

Political organizations

Labor unions

Notable individuals

Connie Pillich (withdrawn)

Governors

  • Ed Rendell, former governor of Pennsylvania and former Democratic National Committee Chairman

State representatives

Mayors

Notable individuals

Labor unions

Organizations

Betty Sutton (withdrawn)

U.S. representatives

Labor unions

Nan Whaley (withdrawn)

Mayors

City Council members

County officials

Labor unions

  • Dayton Building & Construction Trades Council [130]
  • IUE-CWA – International Union of Electronic, Electrical, Salaried, Machine and Furniture Workers [155]
  • Ohio State Council of Machinists [156]

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Richard
Cordray
Dennis
Kucinich
Bill
O'Neill
Connie
Pillich
Joe
Schiavoni
OtherUndecided
Baldwin Wallace University [61] April 24 – May 2, 201833331%15%6%6%41%
Fallon Research [157] April 4–7, 2018500± 4.4%28%13%3%5%1% [A] 51%
SurveyUSA [64] March 16–20, 2018509± 5.3%21%21%4%5%3% [B] 46%
Fallon Research [66] January 16–19, 201824823%16%3%2%4%52%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Richard
Cordray
Connie
Pillich
Joe
Schiavoni
Betty
Sutton
Nan
Whaley
Undecided
Luntz Global [69] June 12, 2017500± 4.4%17%9%20%21%10%
Gravis Marketing [70] April 27 – May 2, 2017558± 2.7%8%12%13%67%

Results

Results by county:
Cordray
40-50%
50-60%
60-70%
70-80%
Schiavoni
40-50%
60-70% Ohio gubernatorial Democratic primary, 2018.svg
Results by county:
  Cordray
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  Schiavoni
  •   40–50%
  •   60–70%
Democratic primary results [72]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Richard Cordray 423,264 62.3
Democratic Dennis Kucinich155,69422.9
Democratic Joe Schiavoni62,3159.2
Democratic Bill O'Neill22,1963.3
Democratic Paul Ray9,3731.4
Democratic Larry Ealy6,8961.0
Total votes679,738 100.0

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Nominated

  • Travis Irvine, filmmaker and writer [158]
    • Running mate: Todd Grayson [159]

Withdrew

  • Bruce Jaynes, entrepreneur
  • Stephen Quinn, student

Green primary

Gadell-Newton Constance Gadell-Newton Portrait.jpg
Gadell-Newton

Candidates

Nominated

  • Constance Gadell-Newton, attorney, co-chair of the Ohio Green Party and nominee for the State House in 2016 [160]
    • Running mate: Brett R. Joseph

General election

Candidates

Endorsements

Richard Cordray (D)

Former federal officials

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

Governors

State representatives

Mayors

City Council members

County officials

Notable individuals

Labor unions

Organizations

Mike DeWine (R)

Federal officials

Governors

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

State senators

State representatives

Notable individuals

Labor unions

Organizations

Newspapers

Debates

Host
network/sponsors
LocationDateLink(s)Possible Participants
Richard
Cordray (D)
Mike
DeWine (R)
Travis Irvine (L)Constance Gadell-Newton (G)
WHIO-TV University of DaytonSeptember 19, 2018 [196] InvitedInvitedNot InvitedNot Invited
WCMH-TV Marietta CollegeOctober 1, 2018 [197] InvitedInvitedNot InvitedNot Invited
Ohio Debate CommissionCleveland State UniversityOctober 8, 2018 [198] InvitedInvitedNot InvitedNot Invited

[199]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [200] TossupOctober 26, 2018
The Washington Post [201] TossupNovember 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight [202] Lean D (flip)November 5, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report [203] TossupNovember 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball [204] Lean D (flip)November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics [205] TossupNovember 4, 2018
Daily Kos [206] TossupNovember 5, 2018
Fox News [207] [a] TossupNovember 5, 2018
Politico [208] TossupNovember 5, 2018
Governing [209] TossupNovember 5, 2018
Notes
  1. The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Mike
DeWine
(R)
Richard
Cordray
(D)
Travis
Irvine
(L)
Constance
Gadell-
Newton (G)
OtherUndecided
Change Research [210] November 2–4, 201892343%48%5%1%
The Trafalgar Group (R) [211] November 2–4, 20181,948± 2.2%42%46%7%5%
Research Co. [212] November 1–3, 2018450± 4.6%44%44%2%10%
Cygnal (R) [213] October 30–31, 2018503± 4.4%43%43%3%2%9%
Gravis Marketing [214] October 29–30, 2018789± 3.5%43%48%9%
Emerson College [215] October 26–28, 2018566± 4.3%46%49%2%3%
Baldwin Wallace University [216] October 19–27, 20181,051± 3.8%39%39%4%2%16%
41%42%17%
Suffolk University [217] October 4–8, 2018500± 4.4%40%46%2%0%0% [C] 10%
Baldwin Wallace University [218] September 8 – October 8, 20181,017± 3.5%40%37%4%3%15%
42%39%19%
University of Akron [219] September 10 – October 4, 20181,000± 3.0%37%36%27%
Ipsos [220] September 13–21, 20181,074± 3.0%45%44%2%9%
Triton Polling & Research (R) [221] September 18–20, 20181,003± 3.1%49%44%8%
Marist College [222] September 16–20, 2018564 LV± 5.0%44%44%3%3%<1%6%
47%47%1%6%
796 RV± 4.2%42%43%4%4%1%6%
47%47%1%6%
Baldwin Wallace University [223] September 5–15, 20181,048± 3.6%42%37%21%
Morning Consult [224] September 2–11, 20181,592± 2.0%39%38%23%
Change Research (D-Innovation Ohio) [225] August 31 – September 4, 2018822± 3.0%45%43%6%3%
43%43%14%
TRZ Communications (R-WTPC) [226] June 30 – July 10, 20181,485± 3.0%42%38%3%17%
Marist College [227] June 17–22, 2018778± 4.4%46%42%2%11%
Quinnipiac University [228] June 7–12, 20181,082± 3.7%40%42%2%14%
Suffolk University [229] June 6–11, 2018500± 4.4%36%43%3%2%16%
America First Action (R) [230] May 29–31, 2018400± 4.9%45%38%10%
Fallon Research [231] May 21–25, 2018800± 3.5%40%34%1%3% [D] 22%
Public Policy Polling (D-Ohio Democratic Party) [232] May 6–7, 2018618± 3.9%39%44%17%
Public Policy Polling (D-Ohio Democratic Party) [232] April 25–26, 2018770± 3.5%38%47%14%
SurveyUSA [64] March 16–20, 20181,408± 3.5%47%39%14%
Public Policy Polling (D-Ohio Democratic Party) [233] January 22–23, 2018585± 4.1%45%44%11%
Fallon Research [66] January 16–19, 2018801± 3.5%49%28%23%
Luntz Global [69] June 12, 2017500± 4.4%55%31%14%
Hypothetical polling

with DeWine and Kucinich

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Mike
DeWine (R)
Dennis
Kucinich (D)
Undecided
SurveyUSA [64] March 16–20, 20181,408± 3.5%51%38%12%
Public Policy Polling (D-Ohio Democratic Party) [233] January 22–23, 2018585± 4.1%48%37%14%

with DeWine and Pillich

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Mike
DeWine (R)
Connie
Pillich (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D-Ohio Democratic Party) [233] January 22–23, 2018585± 4.1%47%35%18%

with Jon Husted

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Jon
Husted (R)
Richard
Cordray (D)
Undecided
Luntz Global [69] June 12, 2017500± 4.4%47%35%18%

with generic Republican and Democrat

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Generic
Republican
Generic
Democrat
Undecided
Baldwin Wallace University [234] February 28 – March 9, 20181,011± 3.0%37%32%

Results

Ohio gubernatorial election, 2018 [1]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Mike DeWine 2,235,825 50.40% −13.24%
Democratic Richard Cordray 2,070,04646.67%+13.64%
Libertarian Travis Irvine80,0551.80%N/A
Green Constance Gadell-Newton49,5361.12%−2.21%
Write-in Renea Turner (write-in)1850.00%N/A
Write-in Richard Duncan (write-in)1320.00%N/A
Write-in Rebecca Ayres (write-in)410.00%N/A
Total votes4,435,820 100.00% N/A
Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

DeWine won 12 of 16 congressional districts. [235]

DistrictDeWineCordrayRepresentative
1st 52.15%45.14% Steve Chabot
2nd 54.33%42.65% Brad Wenstrup
3rd 27.46%70.09% Joyce Beatty
4th 62.14%34.23% Jim Jordan
5th 58.32%38.31% Bob Latta
6th 64.34%32.81% Bill Johnson
7th 59.45%37.16% Bob Gibbs
8th 64.37%32.45% Warren Davidson
9th 35.31%61.33% Marcy Kaptur
10th 52.11%44.87% Mike Turner
11th 18.43%79.5% Marcia Fudge
12th 52.41%45.24% Troy Balderson
13th 40.37%56.56% Tim Ryan
14th 51.98%45.18% David Joyce
15th 52.64%44.64% Steve Stivers
16th 53.71%43.38% Anthony Gonzalez

Notes

  1. Paul Ray 1%, Larry Ealy 0%
  2. Paul Ray 2%, Larry Ealy 1%
  3. Richard Duncan (write-in), Rebecca Ayers (write-in), and Renea Turner (write-in) with 0%
  4. Colin Hill (I) with 3%

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Richard Cordray</span> American lawyer & politician (born 1959)

Richard Adams Cordray is an American lawyer and politician who served from 2021 to 2024 as COO of Federal Student Aid in the United States Department of Education. From 2012 to 2017, he served as the first director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB). Before that, Cordray variously served as Ohio's attorney general, solicitor general, and treasurer. He was the Democratic nominee for governor of Ohio in 2018. In April 2024, the Biden administration announced Cordray's departure after a chaotic rollout of changes to the FAFSA student aid application form.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Jon Husted</span> American politician (born 1967)

Jon Allen Husted is an American politician serving as the 66th lieutenant governor of Ohio, since 2019. He was previously the 53rd Ohio Secretary of State. A member of the Republican Party, he previously represented the 6th District of the Ohio Senate from 2009 to 2011 and was a member of the Ohio House of Representatives from 2001 to 2009. From 2005 to 2009, Husted served as Speaker of the Ohio House of Representatives and remains the 7th youngest person to ever become Ohio House Speaker. Husted was elected Ohio Secretary of State in 2010 and re-elected in 2014. He was a candidate in the Republican Party primary for Governor of Ohio in the 2018 election but later announced that he would instead run for lieutenant governor of Ohio as Attorney General Mike DeWine's running mate.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Jim Renacci</span> American politician (born 1958)

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Connie Pillich</span> American politician

Connie Pillich is an American attorney and former Democratic member of the Ohio House of Representatives, representing the 28th District between 2009 and 2014. She was the Democratic candidate for Ohio State Treasurer in 2014.

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">2012 United States House of Representatives elections in Ohio</span>

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">2014 Ohio elections</span>

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">2010 Ohio Attorney General election</span>

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  170. Terry McAuliffe. "There's a lot at stake this election year in Ohio. We need leaders like @RichCordray elected as governor to fight for the people. If the other candidate wins 700k people will lose access to affordable health care. That's why I'm proud to be in Ohio today to support his candidacy". Twitter.
  171. Richard Cordray. "Honored to have your support @kelleydeal. Along with being an Ohio music legend as the lead singer of The Breeders, you're showing us your superpower as a voter! Thank you!". Twitter.
  172. John Legend. "Great to be back in my home state of Ohio supporting amazing Democrats running for office this year. If you live in Ohio, be sure to vote @SherrodBrown for Senate, @RichCordray for Gov, yes on Issue 1 and Dem up and down the ticket!". Twitter.
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  179. Donald J. Trump. "Congratulations to Mike Dewine on his big win in the Great State of Ohio. He will be a great Governor with a heavy focus on HealthCare and Jobs. His Socialist opponent in November should not do well, a big failure in last job!". Twitter.
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