2018 Kansas gubernatorial election

Last updated

2018 Kansas gubernatorial election
Flag of Kansas.svg
  2014 November 6, 2018 2022  
Turnout57.6% [1]
  Laura Kelly official photo (cropped).jpg Kris Kobach Kansas, Secretary of State (13419571233) (1).jpg Orman52414D4-536 (cropped).jpg
Nominee Laura Kelly Kris Kobach Greg Orman
Party Democratic Republican Independent
Running mate Lynn Rogers Wink Hartman John Doll
Popular vote506,727453,64568,590
Percentage48.01%42.98%6.50%

2018 Kansas gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
2018 Kansas gubernatorial election by congressional district.svg
2018 Kansas gubernatorial election by state house district.svg
2018 Kansas gubernatorial election results map by municipality.svg
Kelly:     30–40%     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Kobach:     30–40%     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tie:     No vote:     

Governor before election

Jeff Colyer
Republican

Elected Governor

Laura Kelly
Democratic

The 2018 Kansas gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the next governor of Kansas. Incumbent Republican governor Sam Brownback was term-limited and could not seek a third consecutive term.

Contents

On July 26, 2017, Brownback was nominated by President Donald Trump to serve as United States Ambassador-at-Large for International Religious Freedom. He was confirmed by the United States Senate on January 24, 2018; [2] [3] he resigned the governorship on January 31 and was succeeded by Lieutenant Governor Jeff Colyer. [4] Colyer was eligible to seek a full term and announced his candidacy prior to becoming Governor of Kansas. In the August 7 primary, Colyer ran against CPA and incumbent Insurance Commissioner Ken Selzer, Topeka doctor and 2006 Republican Kansas gubernatorial nominee Jim Barnett, and Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach.

On August 7, 2018, Kobach defeated Colyer in the Republican gubernatorial primary by an initial margin of 191 votes, [5] a lead that increased to 361 votes by August 14, although discrepancies in some counties needed resolution and provisional and absentee ballots may not have been counted in some counties. [6] [7] [8] Colyer conceded the Republican nomination after the final votes were tallied, in which Kobach's margin grew slightly. [9] State Senator Laura Kelly easily won the Democratic nomination [10] and won the general election, assuming office on January 14, 2019. Businessman Greg Orman, who finished second as an independent in the 2014 U.S. Senate race against incumbent Republican Pat Roberts, ran for governor as an independent candidate. [11]

Given that Kansas is the only state which has no gubernatorial statutory qualifications whatsoever in its constitution, seven teenagers, including one who has never even been to the state of Kansas, ran for the office in this election cycle. [12] A debate took place on September 5 between the three candidates that consistently polled above 5%. [13] Polls in late August had Kelly and Kobach running close with Orman polling in the single digits. [14]

Kelly's win continued a streak of party turnover for governor of Kansas, as Kansas has not elected two consecutive governors of the same party since William Avery succeeded fellow Republican John Anderson Jr. following the 1964 election, and neither major party has held the governorship for longer than eight consecutive years since Republican John McCuish left office in 1957. [15]

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

Withdrew

  • Wink Hartman, businessman and candidate for KS-04 in 2010 [27] (ran for lieutenant governor). [28] Hartman joined Kris Kobach's campaign as his Lieutenant Gubernatorial candidate.

Endorsements

Jeff Colyer
Local and statewide politicians

Organizations

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Jim
Barnett
Jeff
Colyer
Wink
Hartman
Kris
Kobach
Ken
Selzer
OtherUndecided
Remington (R) [38] August 3–5, 20182,769± 2.0%14%34%32%9%3% [39] 10%
The Trafalgar Group (R) [40] July 30 – August 2, 20181,546± 2.4%11%36%43%5%4% [39]
Remington (R) [41] August 2, 2018859± 3.3%13%32%32%9%3% [39] 11%
JMC Analytics (R-Kobach) [42] July 24–26, 2018500± 4.4%11%25%34%8%2% [43] 20%
Remington (R) [44] May 14–15, 20181,441± 2.6%9%29%27%5%30%
JMC Analytics (R-Kobach) [45] March 15–17, 2018500± 4.4%10%18%31%4%36%
Remington (R) [46] February 13–14, 20181,806± 2.3%8%23%5%21%3%3% [47] 37%
Moore Information (R) [48] February 11, 201820%6%26%11%38%

Results

County results
.mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{}
Kobach
30-40%
40-50%
50-60%
Colyer
30-40%
40-50%
50-60%
70-80%
Kobach/Colyer tie
40-50%
Selzer
30-40% 2018 KS gubernatorial GOP primary.svg
County results
  Kobach
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  Colyer
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   70–80%
  Kobach/Colyer tie
  •   40-50%
  Selzer
  •   30–40%
Republican primary results [49]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Kris Kobach 128,838 40.62
Republican Jeff Colyer (incumbent)128,48840.51
Republican Jim Barnett 27,9938.83
Republican Ken Selzer 24,8077.82
Republican Patrick Kucera3,2121.01
Republican Tyler Ruzich2,2760.72
Republican Joseph Tutera Jr.1,5590.49
Total votes317,173 100.0

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

  • Arden Andersen, physician [52]
    • Running mate: Dale Cowsert, businessman
  • Jack Bergeson, high school student [53]
    • Running mate: Alexander Cline, high school student [53]
  • Carl Brewer, former Mayor of Wichita [54]
    • Running mate: Chris Morrow, former mayor of Gardner [55]
  • Josh Svaty, former Kansas Secretary of Agriculture and former state representative [56]
    • Running mate: Katrina Gier Lewison, Manhattan-Ogden USD 383 Board of Education member, veteran

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Josh Svaty

Statewide and local politicians

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Arden
Andersen
Jack
Bergeson
Carl
Brewer
Laura
Kelly
Josh
Svaty
Undecided
GBA Strategies (D-Kelly) [69] June 5–7, 2018500± 4.4%3%2%22%35%12%25%
25%44%12%20%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Laura
Kelly
Josh
Svaty
Jim
Ward
Undecided
Expedition Strategies (D-Ward) [70] March 4–8, 2018± 4.4%17%7%19%57%
Moore Information (R) [48] February 11, 201839%20%42%

Results

County results
Kelly
30-40%
40-50%
50-60%
60-70%
70-80%
Brewer
30-40%
40-50%
Svaty
30-40%
40-50%
50-60%
60-70%
70-80%
80-90% Kansas Governor D Primary 2018.svg
County results
  Kelly
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70-80%
  Brewer
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  Svaty
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
Democratic primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Laura Kelly 78,746 51.5
Democratic Carl Brewer 30,69320.1
Democratic Josh Svaty 26,72217.5
Democratic Arden Andersen12,8458.4
Democratic Jack Bergeson3,8502.5
Total votes152,856 100.0

Independent candidates

Candidates

On the ballot

Write-in

Failed to qualify

Libertarian convention

Candidates

Nominated

  • Jeff Caldwell, executive committee member for the Libertarian Party of Kansas [86]
    • Running mate: Mary Gerlt

Withdrew

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [89] TossupOctober 26, 2018
The Washington Post [90] TossupNovember 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight [91] TossupNovember 5, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report [92] TossupNovember 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball [93] Lean D (flip)November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics [94] TossupNovember 4, 2018
Daily Kos [95] TossupNovember 5, 2018
Fox News [96] [a] TossupNovember 5, 2018
Politico [97] TossupNovember 5, 2018
Governing [98] TossupNovember 5, 2018
Notes
  1. The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Debates

DatesLocationKellyKobachOrmanLink
September 6, 2018 Overland Park, Kansas ParticipantParticipantParticipant Full debate - YouTube
October 30, 2018 Wichita, Kansas ParticipantParticipantParticipant Full debate - C-SPAN

Endorsements

Laura Kelly (D)

Federal politicians

Statewide and local politicians

Labor unions

Organizations

Newspapers and news websites

Kris Kobach (R)

U.S. Executive Branch officials

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

Statewide and local politicians

Individuals

Organizations

Greg Orman (I)
Organisations

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Kris
Kobach
(R)
Laura
Kelly
(D)
Greg
Orman
(I)
Jeff
Caldwell
(L)
OtherUndecided
Emerson College [148] October 26–28, 2018976± 3.3%44%43%8%1%4%
Ipsos [149] October 17–27, 2018986± 3.6%41%43%9%2%5%
Public Policy Polling (D-Western States Strategies) [150] October 19–20, 2018698± 3.7%41%41%10%2%0% [151] 6%
Remington (R) [152] September 30 – October 1, 20181,680± 2.4%41%42%10%2%1% [153] 4%
Emerson College [154] September 26–28, 2018938± 3.5%37%36%9%3%15%
Fort Hays State University [155] August 22 – September 25, 201832436%40%10%5%
Civiqs (D-Crawford County Dems) [156] September 21–24, 20181,178± 3.4%39%41%9%5%0% [151] 5%
Public Policy Polling (D-Pottawatomie County Dems) [157] September 12–13, 201861839%38%9%1%2% [158] 12%
Public Policy Polling (D-KNEA PAC) [159] August 24–26, 201887739%38%9%1%2% [158] 11%
Remington (R) [160] July 19–20, 20181,189± 2.9%35%36%12%17%
Hypothetical polling

with Kris Kobach and Laura Kelly

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Kris
Kobach (R)
Laura
Kelly (D)
Undecided
Triton Polling & Research (I-Grow Kansas Action Fund) [161] October 2018785± 3.1%49%47%
Public Policy Polling (D-Western States Strategies) [150] October 17–21, 2018698± 3.7%44%48%8%
Public Policy Polling [162] September 12–13, 201861847%46%8%
Triton Polling & Research (I-Grow Kansas Action Fund) [163] August 201846%46%8%

with Kris Kobach and Greg Orman

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Kris
Kobach (R)
Greg
Orman (I)
Undecided
Triton Polling & Research (I-Grow Kansas Action Fund) [161] October 2018785± 3.1%43%49%
Triton Polling & Research (I-Grow Kansas Action Fund) [163] August 201840%53%8%

with Jeff Colyer

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Jeff
Colyer (R)
Laura
Kelly (D)
Greg
Orman (I)
Undecided
Remington (R) [160] July 19–20, 20181,189± 2.9%38%28%10%24%

with generic Republican, Democrat, and Independent

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Generic
Republican
Generic
Democrat
Generic
Independent
Undecided
Remington (R) [160] July 19–20, 20181,189± 2.9%47%35%8%10%

Results

2018 Kansas Gubernatorial election swing.svg
2018 Kansas Gubernatorial election trend.svg
Kansas gubernatorial election, 2018 [164]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Laura Kelly 506,727 48.01% +1.88%
Republican Kris Kobach 453,64542.98%−6.84%
Independent Greg Orman 68,5906.50%N/A
Libertarian Jeff Caldwell20,0201.90%−2.15%
Independent Rick Kloos 6,5840.62%N/A
Total votes1,055,566 100.00% N/A
Democratic gain from Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Kelly won two of four congressional districts, including one that was carried by a Republican in the concurrent congressional elections. [165]

DistrictKellyKobachOrmanRepresentative
1st 37%51%9% Roger Marshall
2nd 51%41%5% Lynn Jenkins (115th Congress)
Steve Watkins (116th Congress)
3rd 56%37%5% Kevin Yoder (115th Congress)
Sharice Davids (116th Congress)
4th 44.7%45.4%8% Ron Estes

Maps

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References

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  38. Remington (R)
  39. 1 2 3 Patrick Kucera, Tyler Ruzich, and Joseph Tutera with 1%
  40. The Trafalgar Group (R)
  41. Remington (R)
  42. JMC Analytics (R-Kobach)
  43. Patrick Kucera and Tyler Ruzich with 1%, Joseph Tutera with <1%
  44. Remington (R)
  45. JMC Analytics (R-Kobach)
  46. Remington (R)
  47. Mark Hutton 3%
  48. 1 2 Moore Information (R)
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  130. Pence, Mike (August 15, 2018). "Congratulations to @KrisKobach1787 on his primary victory in the governor's race in Kansas. Kris ran a great campaign in a competitive primary with a good man, @drjeffcolyer. We look forward to campaigning to victory with him in November!".
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  151. 1 2 Rick Kloos (I) with 0%
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  153. Rick Kloos (I) with 1%
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  157. Public Policy Polling (D-Pottawatomie County Dems)
  158. 1 2 Rick Kloos (I) with 2%
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  160. 1 2 3 Remington (R)
  161. 1 2 Triton Polling & Research (I-Grow Kansas Action Fund)
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