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Turnout | 57.6% [1] | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Kelly: 30–40% 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Kobach: 30–40% 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: No vote: | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Elections in Kansas |
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The 2018 Kansas gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the next governor of Kansas.
On July 26, 2017, Governor Sam Brownback was nominated by President Donald Trump to serve as United States Ambassador-at-Large for International Religious Freedom. He was confirmed by the United States Senate on January 24, 2018; [2] [3] he resigned the governorship on January 31 and was succeeded by Lieutenant Governor Jeff Colyer. [4] Colyer was eligible to seek a full term and announced his candidacy prior to becoming Governor of Kansas. In the August 7 primary, Colyer ran against CPA and incumbent Insurance Commissioner Ken Selzer, Topeka doctor and 2006 Republican Kansas gubernatorial nominee Jim Barnett, and Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach.
On August 7, 2018, Kobach defeated Colyer in the Republican gubernatorial primary by an initial margin of 191 votes, [5] a lead that increased to 361 votes by August 14, although discrepancies in some counties needed resolution and provisional and absentee ballots may not have been counted in some counties. [6] [7] [8] Colyer conceded the Republican nomination after the final votes were tallied, in which Kobach's margin grew slightly. [9] State Senator Laura Kelly easily won the Democratic nomination [10] and won the general election, assuming office on January 14, 2019. Businessman Greg Orman, who finished second as an independent in the 2014 U.S. Senate race against incumbent Republican Pat Roberts, ran for governor as an independent candidate. [11]
Owing to the fact that, aside from a two-term limit for incumbents, the Constitution of Kansas places no limitations of any kind on who may seek the office, several teenagers (including one who had never been to the state), filed to run for governor, drawing media attention. [12] A debate took place on September 5 between the three candidates that consistently polled above 5%. [13] Polls in late August had Kelly and Kobach running close with Orman polling in the single digits. [14]
Kelly's win continued a streak of party turnover for governor of Kansas, as Kansas has not elected two consecutive governors of the same party since William Avery succeeded fellow Republican John Anderson Jr. following the 1964 election, and neither major party has held the governorship for longer than eight consecutive years since Republican John McCuish left office in 1957. [15]
Organizations
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Jim Barnett | Jeff Colyer | Wink Hartman | Kris Kobach | Ken Selzer | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Remington (R) [38] | August 3–5, 2018 | 2,769 | ± 2.0% | 14% | 34% | – | 32% | 9% | 3% [39] | 10% |
The Trafalgar Group (R) [40] | July 30 – August 2, 2018 | 1,546 | ± 2.4% | 11% | 36% | – | 43% | 5% | 4% [39] | – |
Remington (R) [41] | August 2, 2018 | 859 | ± 3.3% | 13% | 32% | – | 32% | 9% | 3% [39] | 11% |
JMC Analytics (R-Kobach) [42] | July 24–26, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 11% | 25% | – | 34% | 8% | 2% [43] | 20% |
Remington (R) [44] | May 14–15, 2018 | 1,441 | ± 2.6% | 9% | 29% | – | 27% | 5% | – | 30% |
JMC Analytics (R-Kobach) [45] | March 15–17, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 10% | 18% | – | 31% | 4% | – | 36% |
Remington (R) [46] | February 13–14, 2018 | 1,806 | ± 2.3% | 8% | 23% | 5% | 21% | 3% | 3% [47] | 37% |
Moore Information (R) [48] | February 11, 2018 | – | – | – | 20% | 6% | 26% | 11% | – | 38% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Kris Kobach | 128,838 | 40.62 | |
Republican | Jeff Colyer (incumbent) | 128,488 | 40.51 | |
Republican | Jim Barnett | 27,993 | 8.83 | |
Republican | Ken Selzer | 24,807 | 7.82 | |
Republican | Patrick Kucera | 3,212 | 1.01 | |
Republican | Tyler Ruzich | 2,276 | 0.72 | |
Republican | Joseph Tutera Jr. | 1,559 | 0.49 | |
Total votes | 317,173 | 100.0 |
Statewide and local politicians
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Arden Andersen | Jack Bergeson | Carl Brewer | Laura Kelly | Josh Svaty | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GBA Strategies (D-Kelly) [69] | June 5–7, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 3% | 2% | 22% | 35% | 12% | 25% |
– | – | 25% | 44% | 12% | 20% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Laura Kelly | Josh Svaty | Jim Ward | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Expedition Strategies (D-Ward) [70] | March 4–8, 2018 | – | ± 4.4% | 17% | 7% | 19% | 57% |
Moore Information (R) [48] | February 11, 2018 | – | – | 39% | – | 20% | 42% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Laura Kelly | 78,746 | 51.5 | |
Democratic | Carl Brewer | 30,693 | 20.1 | |
Democratic | Josh Svaty | 26,722 | 17.5 | |
Democratic | Arden Andersen | 12,845 | 8.4 | |
Democratic | Jack Bergeson | 3,850 | 2.5 | |
Total votes | 152,856 | 100.0 |
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report [89] | Tossup | October 26, 2018 |
The Washington Post [90] | Tossup | November 5, 2018 |
FiveThirtyEight [91] | Tossup | November 5, 2018 |
Rothenberg Political Report [92] | Tossup | November 1, 2018 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball [93] | Lean D (flip) | November 5, 2018 |
RealClearPolitics [94] | Tossup | November 4, 2018 |
Daily Kos [95] | Tossup | November 5, 2018 |
Fox News [96] [a] | Tossup | November 5, 2018 |
Politico [97] | Tossup | November 5, 2018 |
Governing [98] | Tossup | November 5, 2018 |
Dates | Location | Kelly | Kobach | Orman | Link |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
September 6, 2018 | Overland Park, Kansas | Participant | Participant | Participant | Full debate - YouTube |
October 30, 2018 | Wichita, Kansas | Participant | Participant | Participant | Full debate - C-SPAN |
Federal politicians
Statewide and local politicians
Labor unions
Organizations
Newspapers and news websites
U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Statewide and local politicians
Individuals
Organizations
![]() | Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. Updates on reimplementing the Graph extension, which will be known as the Chart extension, can be found on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Kris Kobach (R) | Laura Kelly (D) | Greg Orman (I) | Jeff Caldwell (L) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College [148] | October 26–28, 2018 | 976 | ± 3.3% | 44% | 43% | 8% | – | 1% | 4% |
Ipsos [149] | October 17–27, 2018 | 986 | ± 3.6% | 41% | 43% | 9% | – | 2% | 5% |
Public Policy Polling (D-Western States Strategies) [150] | October 19–20, 2018 | 698 | ± 3.7% | 41% | 41% | 10% | 2% | 0% [151] | 6% |
Remington (R) [152] | September 30 – October 1, 2018 | 1,680 | ± 2.4% | 41% | 42% | 10% | 2% | 1% [153] | 4% |
Emerson College [154] | September 26–28, 2018 | 938 | ± 3.5% | 37% | 36% | 9% | – | 3% | 15% |
Fort Hays State University [155] | August 22 – September 25, 2018 | 324 | – | 36% | 40% | 10% | – | 5% | – |
Civiqs (D-Crawford County Dems) [156] | September 21–24, 2018 | 1,178 | ± 3.4% | 39% | 41% | 9% | 5% | 0% [151] | 5% |
Public Policy Polling (D-Pottawatomie County Dems) [157] | September 12–13, 2018 | 618 | – | 39% | 38% | 9% | 1% | 2% [158] | 12% |
Public Policy Polling (D-KNEA PAC) [159] | August 24–26, 2018 | 877 | – | 39% | 38% | 9% | 1% | 2% [158] | 11% |
Remington (R) [160] | July 19–20, 2018 | 1,189 | ± 2.9% | 35% | 36% | 12% | – | – | 17% |
with Kris Kobach and Laura Kelly
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Kris Kobach (R) | Laura Kelly (D) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Triton Polling & Research (I-Grow Kansas Action Fund) [161] | October 2018 | 785 | ± 3.1% | 49% | 47% | – |
Public Policy Polling (D-Western States Strategies) [150] | October 17–21, 2018 | 698 | ± 3.7% | 44% | 48% | 8% |
Public Policy Polling [162] | September 12–13, 2018 | 618 | – | 47% | 46% | 8% |
Triton Polling & Research (I-Grow Kansas Action Fund) [163] | August 2018 | – | – | 46% | 46% | 8% |
with Kris Kobach and Greg Orman
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Kris Kobach (R) | Greg Orman (I) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Triton Polling & Research (I-Grow Kansas Action Fund) [161] | October 2018 | 785 | ± 3.1% | 43% | 49% | – |
Triton Polling & Research (I-Grow Kansas Action Fund) [163] | August 2018 | – | – | 40% | 53% | 8% |
with Jeff Colyer
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Jeff Colyer (R) | Laura Kelly (D) | Greg Orman (I) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Remington (R) [160] | July 19–20, 2018 | 1,189 | ± 2.9% | 38% | 28% | 10% | 24% |
with generic Republican, Democrat, and Independent
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Generic Republican | Generic Democrat | Generic Independent | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Remington (R) [160] | July 19–20, 2018 | 1,189 | ± 2.9% | 47% | 35% | 8% | 10% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Laura Kelly | 506,727 | 48.01% | +1.88% | |
Republican | Kris Kobach | 453,645 | 42.98% | −6.84% | |
Independent | Greg Orman | 68,590 | 6.50% | N/A | |
Libertarian | Jeff Caldwell | 20,020 | 1.90% | −2.15% | |
Independent | Rick Kloos | 6,584 | 0.62% | N/A | |
Total votes | 1,055,566 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
Democratic gain from Republican |
Kelly won two of four congressional districts, including one that was carried by a Republican in the concurrent congressional elections. [165]
District | Kelly | Kobach | Orman | Representative |
---|---|---|---|---|
1st | 37% | 51% | 9% | Roger Marshall |
2nd | 51% | 41% | 5% | Lynn Jenkins (115th Congress) |
Steve Watkins (116th Congress) | ||||
3rd | 56% | 37% | 5% | Kevin Yoder (115th Congress) |
Sharice Davids (116th Congress) | ||||
4th | 44.7% | 45.4% | 8% | Ron Estes |
{{cite web}}
: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link){{cite news}}
: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link) CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link)Our primary endorsements are Laura Kelly for the Democratic primary
...the National Rifle Association Political Victory Fund (NRA-PVF) today endorsed Kris Kobach for governor of Kansas.
Debates
Official campaign websites