2018 United States House of Representatives elections in Nebraska

2018 United States House of Representatives elections in Nebraska

←  2016 November 6, 2018 (2018-11-06) 2020  →
All 3 Nebraska seats to the United States House of Representatives
Majority party Minority party   Party Republican Democratic Last election 3 0 Seats won 3 0 Seat change Popular vote 432,077 264,493 Percentage 62.03% 37.97% Swing 8.71% 9.93%
District results County results Republican   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%   80–90%   >90% Democratic   50–60%

The 2018 United States House of Representatives elections in Nebraska were held on Tuesday, November 6, 2018, to elect the three U.S. representatives from the U.S. state of Nebraska, one from each of the state's three congressional districts. Primaries were held on May 15, 2018. The elections and primaries coincided with the elections and primaries of other federal and state offices.

The 2018 elections saw all three incumbents elected (all from the Republican Party); thus the GOP retained control of all three House seats.

Overview

Popular vote Republican   62.03% Democratic   37.97%

House seats Republican   100% Democratic   0%

District

Results of the 2018 United States House of Representatives elections in Nebraska by district: ^[1]

District	Republican		Democratic		Others		Total		Result
	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%
District 1	141,712	60.36%	93,069	39.64%	0	0.00%	234,781	100%	Republican hold
District 2	126,715	51.00%	121,770	49.00%	0	0.00%	248,485	100%	Republican hold
District 3	163,650	76.72%	49,654	23.28%	0	0.00%	213,304	100%	Republican hold
Total	432,077	62.56%	264,493	35.19%	0	0.00%	696,570	100%

District 1

2018 Nebraska's 1st congressional district election

←  2016 2020  →

Nominee Jeff Fortenberry Jessica McClure Party Republican Democratic Popular vote 141,712 93,069 Percentage 60.4% 39.6%

Results by precinct: Fortenberry:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90% McClure:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%      No votes

U.S. Representative before election Jeff Fortenberry Republican Elected U.S. Representative Jeff Fortenberry Republican

See also: Nebraska's 1st congressional district

The incumbent was Republican Jeff Fortenberry, who had represented the district since 2005. He was re-elected with 69% of the vote in 2016.

Democratic primary

• Dennis Crawford, attorney ^[2]
• Jessica McClure, chemist ^[3]

Primary results

Democratic primary results ^[4]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Jessica McClure	22,199	66.1
	Democratic	Dennis P. Crawford	11,386	33.9
Total votes			33,585	100.0

Republican primary

• Jeff Fortenberry, incumbent

Primary results

Republican primary results ^[5]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Jeff Fortenberry (incumbent)	51,809	100.0
Total votes			51,809	100.0

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report [6]	Safe R	November 5, 2018
Inside Elections [7]	Safe R	November 5, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball [8]	Safe R	November 5, 2018
RCP [9]	Safe R	November 5, 2018
Daily Kos [10]	Safe R	November 5, 2018
538 [11]	Safe R	November 7, 2018

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Jeff Fortenberry (R)	Jessica McClure (D)	Undecided
Change Research (D) [12]	October 24–25, 2018	742	–	55%	39%	–

Results

Nebraska's 1st congressional district, 2018

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Jeff Fortenberry (incumbent)	141,712	60.4
	Democratic	Jessica McClure	93,069	39.6
Total votes			234,781	100.0
	Republican hold

District 2

2018 Nebraska's 2nd congressional district election

←  2016 2020  →

Nominee Don Bacon Kara Eastman Party Republican Democratic Popular vote 126,715 121,770 Percentage 51.0% 49.0%

Bacon:     60–70% Eastman:     50–60%

U.S. Representative before election Don Bacon Republican Elected U.S. Representative Don Bacon Republican

See also: Nebraska's 2nd congressional district

The incumbent was Republican Don Bacon, who had represented the district since 2017. He flipped the district and was elected with 49% of the vote in 2016.

Democratic primary

• Brad Ashford, former U.S. representative
• Kara Eastman, founder of Omaha Healthy Kids Alliance and vice chair of the Metropolitan Community College Board of Governors ^[13]

Endorsements

Kara Eastman

Individuals

• Anne Boyle, former Nebraska state public service commissioner
• Ben Gray, Omaha city councilman
• Crystal Rhoades, Nebraska state public service commissioner
• Tony Vargas, Nebraska state senator
• Justin Wayne, Nebraska state senator

Organizations

• Climate Hawks Vote
• Insulators Local 39
• Justice Democrats
• Progressive Change Campaign Committee
  1. VOTEPROCHOICE

Parties

• Cannabis Rights Party of Nebraska ^[14]

Debate

2018 Nebraska's 2nd congressional district democratic primary debate

No.	Date	Host	Moderator	Link	Democratic	Democratic
Key:  P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited  W  Withdrawn
					Brad Ashford	Kara Eastman
1	Apr. 24, 2018	KMTV-TV Omaha World-Herald	Craig Nigrelli Mike'l Severe	[15]	P	P

Primary results

Democratic primary results

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Kara Eastman	21,357	51.64
	Democratic	Brad Ashford	19,998	48.36
Total votes			41,355	100.00

Republican primary

• Don Bacon, incumbent

Primary results

Republican primary results

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Don Bacon (incumbent)	33,852	100.0
Total votes			33,852	100.0

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report [6]	Lean R	November 5, 2018
Inside Elections [7]	Lean R	November 5, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball [8]	Lean R	November 5, 2018
RCP [9]	Lean R	November 5, 2018
Daily Kos [10]	Likely R	November 5, 2018
538 [11]	Tossup	November 7, 2018

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Don Bacon (R)	Kara Eastman (D)	Undecided
DFM Research [16]	October 23–25, 2018	350	± 5.2%	52%	45%	3%
Meeting Street Research (R-Bacon) [17]	October 1–2, 2018	400	± 4.9%	49%	40%	9%
GQR Research (D-Eastman) [18]	September 27–30, 2018	400	± 4.9%	49%	45%	6%
NYT Upshot/Siena College [19]	September 23–26, 2018	512	± 4.5%	51%	42%	7%

Results

Nebraska's 2nd congressional district, 2018

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Don Bacon (incumbent)	126,715	51.0
	Democratic	Kara Eastman	121,770	49.0
Total votes			248,485	100.0
	Republican hold

District 3

2018 Nebraska's 3rd congressional district election

←  2016 2020  →

Nominee Adrian Smith Paul Theobald Party Republican Democratic Popular vote 163,650 49,654 Percentage 76.7% 23.3%

Results by precinct Smith:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90% Theobald:     50–60%     60–70%

U.S. Representative before election Adrian Smith Republican Elected U.S. Representative Adrian Smith Republican

See also: Nebraska's 3rd congressional district

The incumbent was Republican Adrian Smith, who had represented the district since 2007. He was re-elected unopposed in 2016.

Democratic primary

• Paul Theobald, educator and author ^[20]

Primary results

Democratic primary results

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Paul Theobald	16,395	100.0
Total votes			16,395	100.0

Republican primary

• Larry Bolinger, ^[21] author ^[22]
• Arron Kowalski ^[23]
• Kirk Penner, businessman ^[24]
• Adrian Smith, incumbent

Primary results

Republican primary results

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Adrian Smith (incumbent)	50,878	65.74
	Republican	Kirk Penner	20,116	25.99
	Republican	Arron Kowalski	4,461	5.76
	Republican	Larry Lee Scott Bolinger	1,935	2.50
Total votes			77,390	100.00

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report [6]	Safe R	November 5, 2018
Inside Elections [7]	Safe R	November 5, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball [8]	Safe R	November 5, 2018
RCP [9]	Safe R	November 5, 2018
Daily Kos [10]	Safe R	November 5, 2018
538 [11]	Safe R	November 7, 2018

Results

Nebraska's 3rd congressional district, 2018

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Adrian Smith (incumbent)	163,650	76.7
	Democratic	Paul Theobald	49,654	23.3
Total votes			213,304	100.0
	Republican hold

References

1. Johnson, Cheryl L. (February 28, 2019). "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 6, 2018". Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives . Retrieved April 27, 2019.
2. Walton, Don. "Fortenberry challengers hope to ride a Democratic wave". JournalStar.com. Retrieved April 15, 2018.
3. Georlett, Pierce. "Jessica McClure Running for First District in Nebraska" . Retrieved April 15, 2018.
4. Almukhtar, Sarah; Bloch, Matthew; Lee, Jasmine C. (May 15, 2018). "Nebraska Primary Election Results". The New York Times. Retrieved May 16, 2018.
5. "Nebraska Secretary of State Election Results" . Retrieved May 16, 2018.
6. "2018 House Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved October 30, 2018.
7. "2018 House Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved November 5, 2018.
8. "2018 House". Sabato's Crystal Ball . Retrieved November 5, 2018.
9. "Battle for the House 2018". RCP. Retrieved November 5, 2018.
10. "Daily Kos Elections 2018 race ratings". Daily Kos . Retrieved November 5, 2018.^{[ permanent dead link ]}
11. Silver, Nate (August 16, 2018). "2018 House Forecast". FiveThirtyEight . Archived from the original on September 9, 2018. Retrieved November 6, 2018.
12. Change Research (D)
13. Tysver, Robynn. "Nonprofit executive Kara Eastman will seek Democratic nomination in 2nd Congressional District". Omaha.com. Retrieved April 15, 2018.
14. Cannabis Rights Party of Nebraska (March 19, 2020). "Here are our 2020 Primary Endorsements" . Retrieved March 26, 2020– via Facebook.
15. YouTube
16. DFM Research
17. Meeting Street Research (R-Bacon)
18. GQR Research (D-Eastman)
19. NYT Upshot/Siena College
20. KONZ, MIKE. "Democrat candidate Paul Theobald: Trump setting table for GOP loss in 3rd District". Kearney Hub. Retrieved April 15, 2018.
21. Larry Bolinger
22. Star-Herald, JERRY PURVIS. "Alliance man runs for Congress, challenging Adrian Smith". starherald.com. Retrieved April 15, 2018.
23. KHGI. "Meet the candidate: Third Congressional District Arron Kowalski". KHGI. Retrieved April 16, 2018.
24. PRITCHARD, ERIKA. "Congressional candidate Kirk Penner has Main Street mindset". Kearney Hub. Retrieved April 16, 2018.

External links

• Candidates at Vote Smart
• Candidates at Ballotpedia
• Campaign finance at FEC
• Campaign finance at OpenSecrets

Official campaign websites for first district candidates

• Jessica McClure (D) for Congress
• Jeff Fortenberry (R) for Congress

Official campaign websites for second district candidates

• Kara Eastman (D) for Congress
• Don Bacon (R) for Congress

Official campaign websites for third district candidates

• Paul Theobald (D) for Congress
• Adrian Smith (R) for Congress