2018 South Carolina gubernatorial election

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2018 South Carolina gubernatorial election
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  Henry McMaster 2017.jpg Smith Headshot (cropped).jpg
Nominee Henry McMaster James Smith
Party Republican Democratic
Running mate Pamela Evette Mandy Powers Norrell
Popular vote921,342784,182
Percentage53.96%45.92%
South Carolina Governor Election Results by County, 2018.svg
2018 South Carolina Gubernatorial election by congressional district.svg
2018 SC Gov.svg
McMaster:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Smith:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Governor before election

Henry McMaster
Republican

Elected Governor

Henry McMaster
Republican

The 2018 South Carolina gubernatorial election was held on November 6, 2018, to elect the governor of South Carolina. Incumbent Republican governor Henry McMaster, who took office after Nikki Haley resigned to become U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, ran for election to a full term. The primary was held on June 12, with the Democrats nominating State Representative James E. Smith Jr. McMaster failed to win a majority of the vote, and then defeated John Warren in the Republican runoff on June 26. In the general election, McMaster defeated Smith, winning election to a full term. [1]

Contents

Republicans won their fifth straight gubernatorial election in the state, their longest such streak in history.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Defeated in runoff

  • John Warren, businessman [5] [6]
    • Running mate: Pat McKinney, businessman [7]

Defeated in primary

Declined

Endorsements

Catherine Templeton

State figures

Organizations

John Warren

State figures

First round

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Henry McMasterKevin BryantYancey McGillCatherine TempletonJohn WarrenOtherUndecided
Fabrizio, Lee and Associates (R-Warren) [33] May 29–31, 2018500± 4.4%33%5%2%17%19%–24%
Target-Insyght [34] May 29–31, 2018400± 5.0%37%4%3%25%20%–11%
Target-Insyght [35] April 3–5, 2018400± 5.0%46%6%4%22%1%–22%
TargetPoint/GQR [36] March 10–17, 2018397–41%5%3%10%2%–35%
The Trafalgar Group (R) [37] November 29 – December 30, 20172,223± 2.1%40%11%3%8%–10%28%
Mason-Dixon [38] December 6–10, 2017400± 5.0%51%8%1%21%––19%
South Carolina Public Affairs [39] October 10–11, 2017633± 4.0%33%5%5%7%––50%

Results

Primary results by county: McMaster .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} McMaster--60-70% McMaster--50-60% McMaster--40-50% McMaster--30-40% Warren Warren--30-40% Warren--40-50% Templeton Templeton--40-50% McGill McGill--40-50% 2018 SC GOP gubernatorial primary.svg
Primary results by county:
McMaster
  •   McMaster—60–70%
  •   McMaster—50–60%
  •   McMaster—40–50%
  •   McMaster—30–40%
Warren
  •   Warren—30–40%
  •   Warren—40–50%
Templeton
  •   Templeton—40–50%
McGill
  •   McGill—40–50%
Republican primary results [40]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Henry McMaster (incumbent) 155,723 42.32%
Republican John Warren 102,390 27.82%
Republican Catherine Templeton 78,70521.39%
Republican Kevin Bryant 24,7906.74%
Republican Yancey McGill 6,3751.73%
Total votes367,983 100.00%

Runoff

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Henry
McMaster		John
Warren		Undecided
The Trafalgar Group (R) [41] June 19–21, 20181,650± 3.0%54%37%9%
Fabrizio, Lee and Associates (R-Warren) [42] June 19–20, 2018500± 4.4%42%46%13%
The Trafalgar Group (R) [43] June 13–14, 20181,000± 3.0%60%31%9%

Results

Primary runoff results by county: McMaster McMaster--80-90% McMaster--70-80% McMaster--60-70% McMaster--50-60% Warren Warren--50-60% Warren--60-70% Warren--70-80% 2018 SC gubernatorial Republican runoff.svg
Primary runoff results by county:
McMaster
  •   McMaster—80–90%
  •   McMaster—70–80%
  •   McMaster—60–70%
  •   McMaster—50–60%
Warren
  •   Warren—50–60%
  •   Warren—60–70%
  •   Warren—70–80%
Republican primary runoff results [44]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Henry McMaster (incumbent) 184,286 53.63%
Republican John Warren159,34946.37%
Total votes343,635 100.00%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Defeated in Primary

Declined

Endorsements

Phil Noble

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Phil
Noble		James
Smith		Marguerite
Willis		OtherUndecided
Target-Insyght [35] April 3–5, 2018400± 5.0%27%27%21%–25%
TargetPoint/GQR [36] March 10–17, 2018296–7%18%11%–57%
The Trafalgar Group (R) [37] November 29 – December 30, 20172,223± 2.1%25%20%–21%34%

Results

Primary results by county: Smith Smith--70-80% Smith--60-70% Smith--50-60% Smith--40-50% Willis Willis--40-50% 2018 SC gubernatorial Democratic primary.svg
Primary results by county:
Smith
  •   Smith—70–80%
  •   Smith—60–70%
  •   Smith—50–60%
  •   Smith—40–50%
Willis
  •   Willis—40–50%
Democratic primary results [56]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic James Smith 148,633 61.81%
Democratic Marguerite Willis66,24827.55%
Democratic Phil Noble 25,58710.64%
Total votes240,468 100.00%

Independents and third parties

Declared

Failed Nomination

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [60] Likely ROctober 26, 2018
The Washington Post [61] Likely RNovember 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight [62] Safe RNovember 5, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report [63] Safe RNovember 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball [64] Safe RNovember 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics [65] Safe RNovember 4, 2018
Daily Kos [66] Safe RNovember 5, 2018
Fox News [67] [a] Likely RNovember 5, 2018
Politico [68] Likely RNovember 5, 2018
Governing [69] Likely RNovember 5, 2018
Notes
  1. ↑ The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Endorsements

Henry McMaster (R)

U.S. Executive Branch officials

State figures

Organizations

Newspapers

James Smith (D)
Former U.S. Executive Branch officials

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

Local and statewide politicians

Individuals

Organizations

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Henry
McMaster (R)		James
Smith (D)		Undecided
The Trafalgar Group (R) [90] October 29–31, 20183,792± 1.6%54%38%8%
The Trafalgar Group (R) [91] October 12–14, 20184,830± 2.1%56%32%12%
The Trafalgar Group (R) [92] September 24 – October 2, 20182,692± 1.9%51%37%13%
The Tarrance Group (R-RGA) [93] August 11–13, 2018601± 4.1%52%41%7%
Garin-Hart-Yang (D-Smith) [94] August 6–9, 2018605± 4.1%47%43%10%

Results

South Carolina gubernatorial election, 2018
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Henry McMaster (incumbent) 921,342 53.96% −1.94%
Democratic James Smith 784,18245.92%+4.50%
Write-in 2,0450.12%+0.05%
Total votes1,707,569 100.00% N/A
Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

McMaster won 6 of 7 congressional districts, including one that elected a Democratic representative. [95]

DistrictMcMasterSmithRepresentative
1st 52%48% Mark Sanford
Joe Cunningham
2nd 54%46% Joe Wilson
3rd 67%33% Jeff Duncan
4th 59%41% Trey Gowdy
William Timmons
5th 57%43% Ralph Norman
6th 30%70% Jim Clyburn
7th 57%43% Tom Rice

See also

Related Research Articles

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References

  1. ↑ "South Carolina 2018 General Election". Thegreenpapers.com. Retrieved May 22, 2018.
  2. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Jackson, Gavin (September 4, 2016). "2018 governor's race starts to loom large after November. So who's going to run?". The Post and Courier . Archived from the original on September 5, 2016. Retrieved September 5, 2016.
  3. ↑ Kinnard, Meg (August 25, 2016). "McMaster is 'hoping to be in' next South Carolina gov's race". The Herald . Archived from the original on August 29, 2016. Retrieved September 5, 2016.
  4. ↑ Adcox, Seanna (November 28, 2017). "Political novice and newcomer joins Gov. Henry McMaster as 2018 running mate". The Post and Courier . Retrieved December 5, 2017.
  5. ↑ Shain, Andy; Adcox, Seanna (December 1, 2017). "Upstate businessman exploring 2018 South Carolina governor's run". The Post and Courier . Retrieved December 5, 2017.
  6. ↑ "#SC2018: John Warren Entering Governor's Race". FITSNews. February 11, 2018. Retrieved February 12, 2018.
  7. ↑ Kinnard, Meg (May 30, 2018). "SC Gov Hopeful Warren Picks Businessman as Running Mate". U.S. News & World Report .
  8. ↑ Brown, Andy (July 28, 2017). "'I am the right': South Carolina Lt. Gov. Kevin Bryant joins 2018 governor's race". The Post and Courier . Retrieved September 5, 2017.
  9. ↑ Shain, Andrew (March 21, 2016). "EXCLUSIVE: Former Lt. Gov. McGill running for governor as a Republican". The State . Retrieved May 25, 2016.
  10. ↑ Duncan, Emma; Kropf, Schuyler (November 19, 2016). "Catherine Templeton running for governor". The Post and Courier . Retrieved November 28, 2016.
  11. ↑ Andy Shain. "Greenville prosecutor will join South Carolina governor ticket". Post and Courier. Retrieved May 22, 2018.
  12. ↑ Shain, Andy (September 6, 2017). "Sen. Tom Davis opts out of running for South Carolina governor in 2018". The Post and Courier . Retrieved September 7, 2017.
  13. 1 2 3 Brack, Andy (July 17, 2015). "Possible candidates already eyeing governor's mansion". Statehouse Report. Retrieved May 25, 2016.
  14. ↑ Brown, Kirk (April 10, 2017). "Jeff Duncan rules out running for S.C. governor". The Anderson Independent-Mail . Retrieved May 5, 2017.
  15. ↑ "Governor 2018: Mikee Johnson Is Out". FITS News. March 18, 2016. Retrieved May 25, 2016.
  16. ↑ Andy Shain; Emma Dumain. "Tim Scott, Trey Gowdy could team up for governor, lt. governor bid". Postandcourier.com. Retrieved May 22, 2018.
  17. ↑ Dumain, Emma; Kropf, Schuyler (December 5, 2016). "Sen. Tim Scott leaning toward not running for South Carolina governor". The Post and Courier . Retrieved December 12, 2016.
  18. ↑ Emma Dumain. "South Carolina 2018 governor's race: Sen. Tim Scott out, Catherine Templeton in". Post and Courier. Retrieved April 4, 2017.
  19. ↑ "Joe Taylor Mulls 2018 Gubernatorial Bid". FITS News. September 8, 2016. Retrieved September 21, 2016.
  20. ↑ "Catherine Templeton Backed By Joe Taylor". FITS News. September 29, 2017. Retrieved September 29, 2017.
  21. ↑ Dykes, David (August 26, 2016). "Billy Wilkins considering run for governor in '18". Greenville Journal. Retrieved September 5, 2016.
  22. ↑ Dykes, David (November 14, 2016). "Wilkins won't run for governor in 2018". Upstate Business Journal. Retrieved November 28, 2016.
  23. ↑ Kropf, Schuyler (October 7, 2017). "Palmetto Politics: All of South Carolina's Republicans in Washington took gun lobby money last year". The Post and Courier . Retrieved October 9, 2017.
  24. 1 2 Kinnard, Meg (May 31, 2018). "US Rep. Ralph Norman backing Templeton in SC governor's race". Associated Press .
  25. ↑ "Anti-corruption candidate Catherine Templeton earns support from convicted former S.C. House speaker". The Post and Courier . April 26, 2018. Retrieved May 12, 2018.
  26. ↑ "Maggie's List Proudly Endorses Catherine Templeton for Governor of South Carolina". Maggie's List . November 20, 2017.
  27. ↑ "Gubernatorial candidate John Warren gains support from York County lawmakers". The Herald (Rock Hill). June 18, 2018.
  28. ↑ "SC governor candidate John Warren scores endorsement of Greenville Mayor Knox White". The Greenville News. May 8, 2018. Retrieved May 12, 2018.
  29. ↑ "SC governor candidate John Warren picks running mate: Charleston businessman Pat McKinney". The Greenville News. Retrieved February 7, 2019.
  30. ↑ "Duck call in SC governor's race: Duck Dynasty star makes endorsement". Thestate.com. Retrieved February 7, 2019.
  31. ↑ "Templeton, Bryant endorse Warren to unseat McMaster in GOP runoff for SC governor". Thestate.com. Retrieved February 7, 2019.
  32. ↑ "Lawmaker who opted against gov bid backs McMaster challenger | the State". Archived from the original on June 20, 2018. Retrieved June 20, 2018.
  33. ↑ Fabrizio, Lee and Associates (R-Warren)
  34. ↑ Target-Insyght
  35. 1 2 Target-Insyght
  36. 1 2 TargetPoint/GQR
  37. 1 2 The Trafalgar Group (R)
  38. ↑ Mason-Dixon
  39. ↑ South Carolina Public Affairs
  40. ↑ "Official Results". South Carolina Election Commission. Retrieved August 13, 2018.
  41. ↑ The Trafalgar Group (R)
  42. ↑ Fabrizio, Lee and Associates (R-Warren)
  43. ↑ The Trafalgar Group (R)
  44. ↑ "Official Results". South Carolina Election Commission. Retrieved August 13, 2018.
  45. ↑ Shain, Andy (October 5, 2017). "Rep. James Smith becomes first Democrat to enter 2018 South Carolina governor's race". Charleston Post Courier. Retrieved October 5, 2017.
  46. ↑ Schechter, Maayan (May 8, 2018). "Democrats Smith, Noble pick running mates in the governor's race". The State. Retrieved May 11, 2018.
  47. ↑ Kropf, Schuyler (October 10, 2017). "Charleston consultant Phil Noble joins Democratic Race for Governor". Charleston Post Courier. Retrieved October 10, 2017.
  48. ↑ Lovegrove, Jamie (May 10, 2018). "Democratic hopeful Phil Noble picks running mate in South Carolina governor's race". The Post and Courier. Retrieved May 11, 2018.
  49. ↑ Marchant, Bristow (January 31, 2018). "Another candidate jumps into the race for SC governor". The State. Retrieved February 1, 2018.
  50. ↑ Lovegrove, Jamie (March 27, 2018). "Democratic candidate for governor Marguerite Willis names state Sen. John Scott as running mate". The Post and Courier. Retrieved March 30, 2018.
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  52. 1 2 Trainor, Chris (November 13, 2017). "Mayor Steve Benjamin Endorses James Smith for Governor". The Free Times . Retrieved November 13, 2017.
  53. 1 2 Jones, Tyler (September 13, 2016). "2018 SC Governor's Race - 8 Democrats to Watch". Speak Strategic. Archived from the original on September 23, 2016. Retrieved September 21, 2016.
  54. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Shain, Andy (November 14, 2017). "James Smith wins endorsements from Lowcountry politicians in S.C. governor's race". The Post and Courier . Retrieved December 5, 2017.
  55. ↑ Andy Shain. "Alabama Sen. Doug Jones endorses Phil Noble for S.C. governor". Postandcourier.com. Retrieved May 22, 2018.
  56. ↑ "Official Results". South Carolina Election Commission. Retrieved August 13, 2018.
  57. ↑ Trainor, Chris (December 29, 2017). "Candidate for Governor Wants McLeod for Running Mate, Hasn't Met Her". FreeTimes. Retrieved February 6, 2018.
  58. ↑ Moore, Matt (March 29, 2018). "Third party candidate files to run for governor". WYFF4. Retrieved May 11, 2018.
  59. ↑ Moore, Matt (August 10, 2018). "Third-party candidate out of race for SC governor". WYFF. Retrieved February 7, 2019.
  60. ↑ "2018 Governor Race Ratings for October 26, 2018". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved April 10, 2021.
  61. ↑ "The Washington Post's gubernatorial race ratings". The Washington Post . October 16, 2018.
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  63. ↑ "2018 Gubernatorial Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved November 15, 2017.
  64. ↑ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2018 Governor". www.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved November 15, 2017.
  65. ↑ "2018 Governor Races". RealClearPolitics . October 9, 2018.
  66. ↑ "2018 Governor Race Ratings". Daily Kos . June 5, 2018.[ permanent dead link ]
  67. ↑ "2018 Midterm Power Ranking". Fox News .
  68. ↑ "Politico Race Ratings". Politico .
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  70. ↑ "President Trump endorsing Governor McMaster for re-election in 2018". Live 5 News. WCSC-TV. October 9, 2017. Retrieved October 14, 2017.
  71. ↑ "Columbia, Conway on Agenda for President, Vice President Campaign Stops for McMaster". WLTX. June 19, 2018. Retrieved February 7, 2019.
  72. ↑ Kinnard, Meg (June 4, 2018). "US Rep. Tom Rice backs Gov. Henry McMaster's GOP primary bid". Associated Press .
  73. ↑ Barton, Tom (June 14, 2018). "Templeton, Bryant endorse Warren to unseat McMaster in GOP runoff for SC governor". The State . Archived from the original on June 14, 2018.
  74. 1 2 "2 prosecutors in SC corruption investigation endorse McMaster in GOP runoff". Thestate.com. Archived from the original on June 15, 2018. Retrieved February 7, 2019.
  75. ↑ "NRA Endorses Gov. McMaster for Re-election in South Carolina". NRA-PVF. Archived from the original on November 5, 2018.
  76. ↑ "Who endorses whom in the South Carolina governor's race, and when it matters". The Greenville News. Retrieved February 7, 2019.
  77. ↑ "Editorial: Vote to keep McMaster as governor". The Post and Courier . November 4, 2018. Retrieved November 5, 2018.
  78. ↑ Marchant, Bristow. "Here's who Joe Biden is backing in the SC governor's race". The State. Retrieved February 25, 2018.
  79. 1 2 Kelly, Erin (October 11, 2018). "Sen. Bernie Sanders to campaign in nine battleground states to end 'right-wing government'". USA Today . Retrieved October 16, 2018.
  80. ↑ "#SC2018: Jim Clyburn Joining James Smith For Campaign Events". March 27, 2018.
  81. ↑ Kropf, Schuyler (October 12, 2017). "Former Democratic Gov. Jim Hodges backs James Smith for South Carolina governor in 2018". Post and Courier . Retrieved October 14, 2017.
  82. ↑ Byrd, Caitlin (November 15, 2017). "Democrat James Smith endorsed by former Gov. Dick Riley in 2018 South Carolina governor's race". The Post and Courier . Retrieved December 5, 2017.
  83. ↑ Caitlin Byrd (December 12, 2017). "Former Charleston Mayor Joe Riley endorses James Smith for governor: 'He can win'". Postandcourier.com. Retrieved May 22, 2018.
  84. ↑ Jay Inslee. "An Army combat veteran who received the Bronze Star and Purple Heart for his service in Afghanistan, @JamesSmithSC has led a life of service to his country and to South Carolina. We've got great Democratic candidates ready to lead their states across the country". Twitter.
  85. ↑ Williamson Pezé, Jennie; Tynan, John (April 19, 2018). "Conservation Voters Back James Smith for Governor - Conservation Voters of South Carolina". Conservation Voters of South Carolina. Board of Directors of Conservation Voters of South Carolina.
  86. ↑ Ringer, Vicki (May 2, 2018). "Planned Parenthood Votes! South Atlantic Announces Endorsement of James Smith for South Carolina Governor". Plannedparenthoodaction.org.
  87. ↑ "SC Sierra Club Endorses James Smith". FITSNews. March 22, 2018.
  88. ↑ "#SC2018: James Smith Gets Equality PAC Endorsement". FITSNews. May 17, 2018.
  89. ↑ Hegdahl, Rick (June 6, 2018). "VoteVets PAC Endorses James Smith for Governor". VoteVets.org.
  90. ↑ The Trafalgar Group (R)
  91. ↑ The Trafalgar Group (R)
  92. ↑ The Trafalgar Group (R)
  93. ↑ The Tarrance Group (R-RGA)
  94. ↑ Garin-Hart-Yang (D-Smith)
  95. ↑ "Dra 2020".

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