2018 United States House of Representatives election in Vermont

2018 United States House of Representatives election in Vermont's at-large district

←  2016 November 6, 2018 2020  →

Nominee Peter Welch Anya Tynio Party Democratic Republican Popular vote 188,547 70,705 Percentage 69.2% 26.0%

County results Municipality results Welch:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90% Tynio:     40–50%     50–60%

U.S. Representative before election Peter Welch Democratic Elected U.S. Representative Peter Welch Democratic

The 2018 United States House of Representatives election in Vermont was held on November 6, 2018, to elect the U.S. representative from the state of Vermont from Vermont's at-large congressional district. The election coincided with other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate and various state and local elections. The primary elections were held on August 14. Peter Welch, a Democrat won reelection to a seventh term, defeating Republican Anya Tynio.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

• Daniel Freilich, candidate for U.S. Senate in 2010, Navy medical doctor, physician at the VA Medical Center
• Peter Welch, incumbent U.S. representative

Withdrawn

• Ben Mitchell, Liberty Union nominee for U.S. Senate in 2004, governor of Vermont in 2010 and for lieutenant governor of Vermont in 2012 (Withdrew, endorsed Freilich) ^[1]

Debates & forums

• CCTV Channel 17 Forum - Democratic Primary for Representative to Congress 8/7/2018
• Vermont Public Radio - Campaign 2018: A Debate With The Democratic Candidates For U.S. House 8/9/2018

Results

Results by county:

  Welch—80–90%

  Welch—70–80%

Democratic primary results ^[2]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Peter Welch (incumbent)	55,939	83.94
	Democratic	Daniel Freilich	7,881	11.83
	Democratic	Benjamin Mitchell (withdrawn)	2,676	4.02
	Democratic	Write-ins	142	0.21
Total votes			66,638	100.0
	N/A	Spoiled votes	52
	N/A	Blank votes	2,927

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

• H. Brooke Paige, former CEO of Remmington News Service, perennial candidate
• Anya Tynio, sales representative for the Newport Daily Express ^[3]

Debates & forums

• CCTV Channel 17 Republican Primary Forum for Representative to Congress 7/23/2018

Results

Results by county:

  Paige—60–70%

  Paige—50–60%

  Paige—40–50%

  Tynio—40–50%

Republican primary results

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	H. Brooke Paige	14,721	59.89
	Republican	Anya Tynio	8,485	34.52
	Republican	Peter Welch (write-in)	923	3.76
	Republican	Write-ins (other)	450	1.83
Total votes			24,579	100.0
	N/A	Spoiled votes	97
	N/A	Blank votes	11,499

Post-primary

H. Brooke Paige, who also won the Republican nominations for U.S. Senate, state attorney general, state secretary of state, state treasurer and state auditor, withdrew from all but the secretary of state race on August 24 in order to allow the Vermont Republican State Committee to name replacement candidates. ^[4] Anya Tynio, who came in second place in the primary, was nominated to be the Republican nominee. ^[5]

Progressive primary

Candidates

Write-in

• Daniel Freilich, candidate for U.S. Senate in 2010, Navy medical doctor, physician at the VA Medical Center (also running in Democratic primary)

Debates & forums

• BCTV Meet The Candidates forum for Representative to US House 7/10/2018

Results

Progressive primary results ^[6]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Progressive	Peter Welch (write-in)	237	62.04
	Progressive	Daniel Freilich (write-in)	73	19.11
	Progressive	Write-ins (other)	72	18.85
Total votes			643	100.0
	N/A	Spoiled votes	1
	N/A	Blank votes	260

Liberty Union/Socialist nomination

The Liberty Union Party serves as the Vermont affiliate of the Socialist Party for federal-level elections.

Candidates

Declared

• Laura S. Potter ^[7]

Withdrawn

• Ben Mitchell, Liberty Union nominee for U.S. Senate in 2004, governor of Vermont in 2010 and for lieutenant governor of Vermont in 2012 (also ran in Democratic primary before dropping out) ^[8]

United States Marijuana nomination

Candidates

Declared

• Cris Ericson, perennial candidate ^[9]

America First nomination

Candidates

Declared

• Paul Young ^[10] (failed to appear on ballot)

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report [11]	Safe D	November 5, 2018
Inside Elections [12]	Safe D	November 5, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball [13]	Safe D	November 5, 2018
RCP [14]	Safe D	November 5, 2018
Daily Kos [15]	Safe D	November 5, 2018
538 [16]	Safe D	November 7, 2018
CNN [17]	Safe D	October 31, 2018
Politico [18]	Safe D	November 2, 2018

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Peter Welch (D)	Anya Tynio (R)	Other	Undecided
Gravis Marketing [19]	October 30 – November 1, 2018	885	± 3.3%	66%	28%	–	6%
Braun Research [20]	October 5–14, 2018	497	± 4.4%	55%	18%	7% [21]	20%

Results

2018 Vermont's at-large congressional district election ^[22]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	Peter Welch (incumbent)	188,547	69.20%	−13.31%
	Republican	Anya Tynio	70,705	25.95%	N/A
	Marijuana	Cris Ericson	9,110	3.34%	N/A
	Liberty Union	Laura Potter	3,924	1.44%	−7.74%
	Write-in		165	0.07%	-0.39%
Total votes			272,451	100.0%	N/A
	Democratic hold

References

1. "During House debate, Mitchell drops out and backs fellow challenger". VTDigger. August 9, 2018. Retrieved August 9, 2018.
2. "Vermont Election Night Results". Secretary of State of Vermont. Archived from the original on August 11, 2017. Retrieved August 15, 2018.
3. "GOP Candidate Anya Tynio running for U.S. House". July 27, 2018.
4. Meyn, Colin (August 24, 2018). "Republicans on the clock after Paige withdraws from five statewide races". VTDigger.
5. Young, Taylor (August 30, 2018). "Vt. GOP picks candidates for 5 open slots". WCAX-TV. Gray Digital Media. Retrieved August 30, 2018.
6. ":: Vermont Election Night Results ::". Archived from the original on August 11, 2017. Retrieved August 15, 2018.
7. "Archived copy". Archived from the original on August 14, 2018. Retrieved August 14, 2018.
8. "The Voter's Self Defense System".
9. "Cris Ericson U.S. Marijuana Party – Vermont". Archived from the original on March 9, 2018. Retrieved January 8, 2018.
10. "Interview with The America First Party".
11. "2018 House Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved October 30, 2018.
12. "2018 House Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved November 5, 2018.
13. "2018 House". Sabato's Crystal Ball . Retrieved November 5, 2018.
14. "Battle for the House 2018". RCP. Retrieved November 5, 2018.
15. "Daily Kos Elections 2018 race ratings". Daily Kos . Retrieved November 5, 2018.^{[ permanent dead link ]}
16. Silver, Nate (August 16, 2018). "2018 House Forecast". FiveThirtyEight . Archived from the original on August 16, 2018. Retrieved November 6, 2018.
17. "CNN's 2018 Race Ratings". cnn.com. Turner Broadcasting System. Archived from the original on October 31, 2018. Retrieved July 30, 2023.
18. "Who wins 2018? Predictions for Every House & Senate Election". POLITICO. Retrieved September 7, 2018.
19. Gravis Marketing
20. Braun Research
21. Cris Ericson (I) and Laura Potter (LU) with 3%; none/write in/other with 1%
22. Johnson, Cheryl L. (February 28, 2019). "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 6, 2018". Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives . Retrieved April 27, 2019.

External links

• Candidates at Vote Smart
• Candidates at Ballotpedia
• Campaign finance at FEC
• Campaign finance at OpenSecrets

Official campaign websites

• Cris Ericson (M) for Congress Archived 2018-07-24 at the Wayback Machine
• Daniel Freilich (P/D) for Congress
• Ben Mitchell (S/D) for Congress
• Anya Tynio (R) for Congress Archived 2018-11-07 at the Wayback Machine
• Peter Welch (D) for Congress Archived May 19, 2020, at the Wayback Machine