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Johnson: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Bjorkman: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Tie: 40–50% | |||||||||||||||||
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| Elections in South Dakota |
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The 2018 United States House of Representatives election in South Dakota was held on November 6, to elect the U.S. representative for South Dakota's at-large congressional district. The election coincided with other statewide, legislative, and local elections.
Incumbent Republican U.S. Representative Kristi Noem did not run for a fifth term and instead ran successfully for governor of South Dakota. [1] This was the first open seat election since 2004, and the first time a male candidate was elected since 2002. This was the last U.S. House election in South Dakota until 2024 that a Democrat appeared on the November ballot.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Dusty Johnson | Shantel Krebs | Neal Tapio | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon [6] | May 21–23, 2018 | 625 | ± 4.5% | 41% | 23% | 13% | 23% |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Dusty Johnson | 47,032 | 46.8 | |
| Republican | Shantel Krebs | 29,442 | 29.3 | |
| Republican | Neal Tapio | 23,980 | 24.0 | |
| Total votes | 100,454 | 100 | ||
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report [19] | Solid R | June 1, 2018 |
| The Rothenberg Political Report [20] | Solid R | June 1, 2018 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball [21] | Safe R | June 6, 2018 |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Dusty Johnson (R) | Tim Bjorkman (D) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research (D) [22] | November 2–4, 2018 | 851 | – | 51% | 41% | 5% [23] | – |
| Emerson College [24] | November 1–4, 2018 | 514 | ± 4.5% | 54% | 38% | – | 5% |
| Mason-Dixon [25] | October 18–22, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 54% | 31% | 3% [26] | 12% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R-Johnson) [27] | August 1–3 & 5, 2018 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 54% | 33% | – | 10% |
| Public Policy Polling (D-Bjorkman) [28] | July 19–20, 2018 | 641 | ± 3.9% | 43% | 33% | – | 14% |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Dusty Johnson | 202,695 | 60.33% | −3.77% | |
| Democratic | Tim Bjorkman | 121,033 | 36.03% | +0.13% | |
| Independent | Ron Wieczorek | 7,323 | 2.18% | N/A | |
| Libertarian | George D. Hendrickson | 4,914 | 1.46% | N/A | |
| Total votes | 335,965 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Republican hold | |||||
Official campaign websites