2018 Oklahoma gubernatorial election

Last updated

2018 Oklahoma gubernatorial election
Flag of Oklahoma.svg
  2014 November 6, 2018 2022  
  Kevin Stitt.jpg Drewedmondson (cropped).jpg
Nominee Kevin Stitt Drew Edmondson
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote644,579500,973
Percentage54.33%42.23%

2018 Oklahoma gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
2018 Oklahoma gubernatorial election results map by congressional district.svg
2018 Oklahoma gubernatorial election results map by state senate district.svg
2018 Oklahoma gubernatorial election results map by state house district.svg
2018 Oklahoma gubernatorial election results map by precinct.svg
Stitt:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     ≥90%
Edmondson:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     ≥90%
     Tie     No votes

Governor before election

Mary Fallin
Republican

Elected Governor

Kevin Stitt
Republican

The 2018 Oklahoma gubernatorial election was held on November 6, 2018, to elect the next governor of Oklahoma. Incumbent Republican governor Mary Fallin was term-limited, and was prohibited by the Constitution of Oklahoma from seeking another gubernatorial term. Republican Businessman Kevin Stitt was elected with 54.3% of the vote, defeating Democratic nominee and former Oklahoma attorney general Drew Edmondson.

Contents

Primary elections occurred on June 26, 2018. Edmondson won the Democratic nomination outright. Stitt, however, faced a runoff election against former Oklahoma City mayor Mick Cornett. On August 28, 2018, Stitt won the Republican primary runoff and became the Republican nominee for the office. The Libertarian Party also held a primary, which advanced to a runoff, with Chris Powell, a former chair of the Libertarian Party of Oklahoma, winning the nomination. [1] [2]

This was the first election in which the Libertarian Party has been on the ballot to participate in a gubernatorial election in Oklahoma, [3] and the only time since 1986 that a candidate from the incumbent president's party was elected Governor of Oklahoma.

A member of the Cherokee Nation, Stitt became the first tribally enrolled Native American to serve as governor of a U.S. state. [4]

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in the primary runoff

Eliminated in the initial primary

Endorsements

Mick Cornett
Mayors
Individuals
  • Gary Richardson, former Eastern District Attorney and candidate for governor in 2002 & 2018 [31]
Organizations
  • Oklahomans for Public Education [32]
Newspapers
Todd Lamb
U.S. representatives
Individuals
Organizations
Gary Richardson
Individuals
Organizations
  • The Edmond Republican GROUP [42]
  • Sooner Politics News [43]
Kevin Stitt
U.S. executive branch officials
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Governors
Mayors
Individuals
Organizations
Newspapers

First round

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Mick
Cornett
Dan
Fisher
Gary
Jones
Todd
Lamb
Gary
Richardson
Kevin
Stitt
OtherUndecided
Right Strategy Group (R) [61] June 6–7, 2018435± 4.5%21%4%2%20%6%20%28%
Oklahoma Strategic Solutions (R-Richardson) [62] May 22–23, 2018500± 4.4%13%4%3%20%13%17%30%
Right Strategy Group (R) [63] May 22–23, 2018409± 5.0%20%4%3%20%4%21%29%
SoonerPoll [64] May 15–23, 201831920%3%4%23%3%14%1%31%
Magellan Strategies [65] April 18–19 and 22, 2018644± 3.9%17%5%5%19%12%19%23%
SoonerPoll [66] March 14–22, 201829422%4%3%21%7%8%36%
Oklahoma Strategic Solutions (R-Richardson) [67] March 9, 2018500± 4.4%15%2%3%14%10%8%48%
SoonerPoll [68] January 4–9, 201821324%4%3%18%9%3%39%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Jim
Bridenstine
Todd
Lamb
Scott
Pruitt
Undecided
SoonerPoll [69] September 1–15, 2017403± 4.9%19%33%16%32%

Results

Initial primary results by county:
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Cornett
20-30%
30-40%
40-50%
Stitt
20-30%
30-40%
Lamb
20-30%
30-40%
40-50%
Fisher
20-30% 2018 Oklahoma gubernatorial Republican primary.svg
Initial primary results by county:
  Cornett
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  Stitt
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  Lamb
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  Fisher
  •   20–30%
Republican primary results [70]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Mick Cornett 132,806 29.3
Republican Kevin Stitt 110,479 24.4
Republican Todd Lamb 107,98523.9
Republican Dan Fisher 35,8187.9
Republican Gary Jones 25,2435.6
Republican Gary Richardson 18,1854.0
Republican Blake Stephens 12,2112.7
Republican Christopher Barnett5,2401.2
Republican Barry Gowdy2,3470.5
Republican Eric Foutch2,2920.5
Total votes452,606 100.0

Runoff

Campaign finance

Pre-runoff report due August 20, 2018
CandidateTotal
raised
Total
spent
Total
cash-on-hand
Kevin Stitt$6,542,863.91$6,018,662.13$368,557.72
Mick Cornett$3,242,795.74$2,826,305.70$336,691.50

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Mick
Cornett
Kevin
Stitt
Undecided
Remington (R) [71] August 1–2, 20181,757± 2.3%37%47%16%
Right Strategy Group (R) [72] August 1–2, 2018385± 5.0%33%41%26%
SoonerPoll [73] July 18–20, 2018483± 4.5%37%37%25%

Results

Primary runoff results by county:
Stitt
50-60%
60-70%
70-80%
Cornett
50-60% 2018 OK gubernatorial Republican runoff.svg
Primary runoff results by county:
  Stitt
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  Cornett
  •   50–60%
Republican primary runoff results [74]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Kevin Stitt 164,892 54.56
Republican Mick Cornett 137,31645.44
Total votes302,208 100.0

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in the primary

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Drew Edmondson
Governors
Mayors
State representatives
Newspapers
Individuals
  • Norman Jay Brown, auto mechanic and candidate for governor of Oklahoma in 2018 [90]
Organizations
  • Oklahoma Education Association [91]
  • Oklahoma Public Employees Association [92]

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Drew
Edmondson
Connie
Johnson
Undecided
Right Strategy Group (R) [61] June 6–7, 201845%11%45%
SoonerPoll [64] May 15–23, 2018297± 5.7%44%14%43%
Hypothetical polling

with Norman Brown

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Norman
Brown
Drew
Edmondson
Connie
Johnson
Undecided
SoonerPoll [66] March 14–22, 20182644%34%13%50%
SoonerPoll [93] January 4–9, 20181624%40%21%35%

Results

Results by county:
Edmondson
50-60%
60-70%
70-80% 2018 Oklahoma gubernatorial Democratic primary.svg
Results by county:
  Edmondson
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
Democratic primary results [70]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Drew Edmondson 242,764 61.4
Democratic Connie Johnson 152,73038.6
Total votes395,494 100.0

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in the primary runoff

  • Rex L. Lawhorn, former chair of the Oklahoma Americans Elect Party and Oklahoma State Director for Our America Initiative [95]

Eliminated in the initial primary

Endorsements

Chris Powell
Newspapers
Individuals
  • Jimmy Cook, former chair of the Oklahoma Libertarian Party
  • Steve Galpin, former chair of the Oklahoma Libertarian Party
  • Tim Gillespie, founder of the Oklahoma 2nd Amendment Association
  • Frank Grove, president, Drug Reform Network of Oklahoma [98]
  • Tina Kelly, former chair of the Oklahoma Libertarian Party
  • Tom Laurent, former chair of the Oklahoma Libertarian Party, former member of the Libertarian National Committee
  • Robert T. Murphy, former chair of the Oklahoma Libertarian Party, former member of the Libertarian National Committee, nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2016
  • Angela O'Dell, former chair of the Oklahoma Libertarian Party [99]
  • D. Frank Robinson, first chair of the Oklahoma Libertarian Party, founding member of the national Libertarian Party
  • Norma Sapp, director, Oklahoma chapter of the National Organization for the Reform of Marijuana Laws [98]
  • Ken Young, chair of Oklahoma State Board of Cosmetology

First round

Results

Initial primary results by county:
Powell
100%
80-90%
70-80%
60-70%
50-60%
40-50%
Powell/Lawhorn tie
<40%
40-50%
50%
Lawhorn
40-50%
50-60%
60-70%
70-80%
100%
Exotic
40-50%
70-80%
100%
No votes
No Votes 2018 Oklahoma gubernatorial Libertarian primary.svg
Initial primary results by county:
Powell
  •   100%
  •   80–90%
  •   70–80%
  •   60–70%
  •   50–60%
  •   40–50%
Powell/Lawhorn tie
  •   <40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50%
Lawhorn
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   100%
Exotic
  •   40–50%
  •   70–80%
  •   100%
No votes
  •   No Votes
Libertarian primary results [70]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Libertarian Chris Powell 1,740 48.9
Libertarian Rex L. Lawhorn 1,154 32.4
Libertarian Joe Exotic 66418.7
Total votes3,558 100%

Runoff

Campaign finance

Pre-runoff report due August 20, 2018
CandidateTotal
raised
Total
spent
Total
cash-on-hand
Chris Powell$10,142.88$6,991.02$3,017.51
Rex L. Lawhorn$4,575.00$5,286.87($736.87)

Results

Primary runoff results by county:
Powell
100%
80-90%
70-80%
60-70%
50-60%
Powell/Lawhorn tie
50%
Lawhorn
50-60%
60-70%
70-80%
100%
No votes
No votes 2018 OK gubernatorial Libertarian runoff.svg
Primary runoff results by county:
Powell
  •   100%
  •   80–90%
  •   70–80%
  •   60–70%
  •   50–60%
Powell/Lawhorn tie
  •   50%
Lawhorn
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   100%
No votes
  •   No votes
Libertarian primary runoff results [74]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Libertarian Chris Powell 547 59.1
Libertarian Rex L. Lawhorn37940.9
Total votes926 100.0

General election

Oklahoma general election ballot for 2018 Oklahoma general election ballot for 2018.png
Oklahoma general election ballot for 2018

Oklahoma determines ballot order by a random drawing which took place for this election cycle on July 12, resulting in the Libertarian Party being listed first, Republicans second, and Democrats third. [100]

Debates

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [101] TossupOctober 26, 2018
The Washington Post [102] Lean RNovember 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight [103] Likely RNovember 5, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report [104] Lean RNovember 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball [105] Lean RNovember 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics [106] Lean RNovember 4, 2018
Daily Kos [107] Lean RNovember 5, 2018
Fox News [108] [a] Likely RNovember 5, 2018
Politico [109] Lean RNovember 5, 2018
Governing [110] Lean RNovember 5, 2018
Notes
  1. The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Polling

Graphical summary

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Kevin
Stitt (R)
Drew
Edmondson (D)
Chris
Powell (L)
Undecided
SoonerPoll [111] October 31 – November 3, 2018338± 5.3%47%44%3%6%
SoonerPoll [112] October 23–25, 2018447± 4.6%46%42%4%8%
Magellan Strategies (R) [113] October 22–23, 2018500± 4.4%51%44%1%4%
Cole Hargrave Snodgrass (R) [114] September 25–29, 2018500± 4.3%46%40%4%
Right Strategy Group (R) [115] September 25–26, 20181,058± 3.0%47%43%2%8%
SoonerPoll [116] September 5–10, 2018407± 4.9%47%44%3%6%
Right Strategy Group (R) [72] August 1–2, 2018737± 4.0%41%42%17%
SoonerPoll [117] July 18–20, 2018404± 4.9%39%40%21%
SoonerPoll [118] May 15–23, 2018622± 3.9%25%32%43%
Hypothetical polling

with Mick Cornett

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Mick
Cornett (R)
Drew
Edmondson (D)
Undecided
Right Strategy Group (R) [72] August 1–2, 2018737± 4.0%39%39%21%
SoonerPoll [117] July 18–20, 2018404± 4.9%43%35%23%
SoonerPoll [118] May 15–23, 2018622± 3.9%33%27%40%

with Todd Lamb

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Todd
Lamb (R)
Drew
Edmondson (D)
Undecided
SoonerPoll [118] May 15–23, 2018622± 3.9%33%28%39%

Results

Oklahoma gubernatorial election, 2018
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Kevin Stitt 644,579 54.33% −1.47%
Democratic Drew Edmondson 500,97342.23%+1.22%
Libertarian Chris Powell40,8333.44%N/A
Total votes1,186,385 100.00% N/A
Republican hold

By county

Stitt won 73 counties, while Edmondson won four. Stitt won 56 counties with at least 60% of the popular vote, 14 counties with at least 70%, and three counties Beaver, Cimarron, and Ellis with upwards of 80%. Stitt had the largest margin of victory in Cimarron with 73.09% more votes than Edmondson's 12.27%, the latter's lowest county performance in the election. The largest county per vote count won by Stitt was Tulsa County, home of Tulsa. Oklahoma County, of which Oklahoma City is county seat, was the only county where Stitt failed to acquire three out of every seven votes. [119]

Edmondson won Muskogee by a single vote, and had an 11.84% margin of victory his only margin of victory above 10% in Oklahoma County. Edmondson won his four counties with typically narrower margins than that of Stitt, having missed 50% of the popular vote in Muskogee. [119] Powell never came close to winning any counties, but won his highest percentage of votes in Washita County, with 4.97% [119]

CountyStittVotesEdmondsonVotesPowellVotesTotal
Adair 61.61%3,18733.73%1,7454.66%2415,173
Alfalfa 74.01%1,33321.71%3914.28%771,801
Atoka 69.05%2,78928.6%1,1552.35%954,039
Beaver 80.82%1,45415.12%2724.06%731,799
Beckham 71.18%4,06124.47%1,3964.35%2485,705
Blaine 65.73%1,94130.1%8894.17%1232,953
Bryan 64.33%7,30133.01%3,7462.66%30211,349
Caddo 54.97%4,04741.33%3,0433.69%2727,362
Canadian 59.65%27,41036.44%16,7443.91%1,79745,951
Carter 64.91%9,09031.74%4,4453.35%46914,004
Cherokee 45.58%6,33650.14%6,9704.28%59513,901
Choctaw 65.28%2,63431.87%1,2862.85%1154,035
Cimarron 85.36%68212.27%982.38%19799
Cleveland 45.87%42,26850.62%46,6483.51%3,23192,147
Coal 61.05%1,12735.7%6593.25%601,846
Comanche 49.66%13,18046.48%12,3363.87%1,02726,543
Cotton 65.44%1,31229.83%5984.74%952,005
Craig 60.4%2,86336.14%1,7133.46%1644,740
Creek 65.53%14,87031.06%7,0483.42%77522,693
Custer 63.21%5,23932.76%2,6154.03%3348,288
Delaware 65.21%8,54331.4%4,1143.39%44413,101
Dewey 79.41%1,40417.82%3152.77%491,768
Ellis 80.3%1,18615.98%2363.72%551,477
Garfield 63.36%11,00832.31%5,6134.34%75417,375
Garvin 64.91%5,14031.7%2,5103.4%2697,919
Grady 65.16%11,17330.8%5,2814.05%69417,148
Grant 73.36%1,25022.18%3784.46%761,704
Greer 64.22%94631.84%4693.94%581,473
Harmon 59.38%44337.13%2773.49%26746
Harper 78.35%94817.69%2143.97%481,210
Haskell 63.44%2,34833.67%1,2462.89%1073,701
Hughes 60.73%2,32334.93%1,3364.34%1663,825
Jackson 66.31%4,30130.67%1,9893.02%1966,486
Jefferson 70.04%1,09927.02%4242.93%461,569
Johnston 65.45%1,97631.86%9622.68%813,019
Kay 60.51%7,85935.28%4,5824.22%54812,989
Kingfisher 75.23%3,84620.81%1,0643.95%2025,112
Kiowa 60.61%1,64535.81%9723.57%972,714
Latimer 58.8%1,77437.25%1,1253.91%1183,017
Le Flore 62.56%8,00934.89%4,4672.55%32712,803
Lincoln 64.94%7,32330.31%3,4184.74%53511,276
Logan 62.09%9,84733.87%5,3714.04%64115,859
Love 68.69%1,90229.18%8082.13%592,769
Major 79.28%2,17717.12%4703.61%992,746
Marshall 66.66%2,94330.6%1,3512.74%1214,415
Mayes 60.63%7,83735.62%4,6043.76%48612,927
McClain 65.35%9,02131.05%4,2863.6%49713,804
McCurtain 68.43%5,17829.22%2,2112.35%1787,567
McIntosh 54.56%3,61242.07%2,7853.37%2236,620
Murray 62.97%2,75133.03%1,4434.01%1754,369
Muskogee 48.30%9,51548.31%9,5163.39%66819,699
Noble 63.83%2,54331.43%1,2524.74%1893,984
Nowata 66.14%2,31928.98%1,0164.88%1713,506
Okfuskee 56.44%1,75239.98%1,2413.58%1113,104
Oklahoma 42.38%98,99454.22%126,6673.4%7,938233,599
Okmulgee 52.96%5,84643.93%4,8493.11%34311,043
Osage 56.2%8,62940.39%6,2023.21%52415,355
Ottawa 55.74%4,75241.08%3,5023.18%2718,525
Pawnee 62.42%3,07633.38%1,6454.2%2074,928
Payne 49.18%11,19346.8%10,6504.02%91422,757
Pittsburg 59.66%7,98636.17%4,8424.16%55713,385
Pontotoc 52.43%6,23344.52%5,2933.05%36311,889
Pottawatomie 57.06%11,99638.5%8,0934.44%93321,022
Pushmataha 63.07%2,10233.18%1,1063.75%1253,333
Roger Mills 77.13%1,15718.87%2834%601,500
Rogers 64.76%21,45032.02%10,6053.23%1,06933,124
Seminole 55.99%3,68139.66%2,6074.35%2866,574
Sequoyah 58.31%6,69539.02%4,4802.67%30711,482
Stephens 67.48%9,31429.57%4,0812.95%40713,802
Texas 74.84%3,09721.6%8943.55%1474,138
Tillman 62.89%1,31534.24%7162.87%602,091
Tulsa 50.11%101,51847.07%95,3502.82%5,716202,584
Wagoner 63%16,34633.53%8,7003.47%9017,276
Washington 62.96%11,22633.74%6,0173.3%58817,831
Washita 69.72%2,65325.31%9634.97%1893,805
Woods 67.83%1,92928.02%7974.15%1182,844
Woodward 73.35%4,32623.53%1,3883.12%1845,898

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Stitt won four of five congressional districts. [120]

DistrictEdmondsonStittRepresentative
1st 44.18%52.89% Kevin Hern
2nd 37.15%59.51% Markwayne Mullin
3rd 33.53%62.56% Frank Lucas
4th 42.65%53.71% Tom Cole
5th 52.90%43.69% Steve Russell (115th Congress)
Kendra Horn (116th Congress)

See also

References

  1. "2018 Election Calendar". Oklahoma State Election Board. Retrieved May 14, 2018.
  2. "Pre-Runoff Finance Reports: Governor's race". www.muskogeepolitico.com.
  3. "Three Libertarians competing in party's first Oklahoma gubernatorial primary". NewsOK.com. April 2, 2018.
  4. "Only one state makes history with election of first Native governor". Indianz.com. Retrieved March 18, 2021.
  5. "2018: Kevin Stitt Announces Republican Bid For Governor". July 17, 2017. Retrieved May 22, 2018.
  6. "Oklahoma City Mayor Mick Cornett announces plan to run for governor". KFOR.com. May 31, 2017. Retrieved June 1, 2017.
  7. "Christopher Barnett for Governor". chrisforgov.com. Retrieved May 22, 2018.
  8. "Former Rep. Lawmaker Dan Fisher To Run For State Governor". Associated Press. Retrieved May 22, 2018.
  9. 1 2 3 "Candidate Filings, 2018". www.ok.gov. Archived from the original on November 25, 2020. Retrieved May 22, 2018.
  10. Murphy, Sean (May 8, 2017). "Oklahoma Auditor Gary Jones to Run for Governor in 2018". U.S. News & World Report. Retrieved May 18, 2017.
  11. "Lt. Governor Todd Lamb files candidacy paperwork for 2018 governor's race". KFOR.com. April 7, 2017. Retrieved June 1, 2017.
  12. Felder, Ben (April 24, 2017). "Richardson announces run for governor, seeks Republican ticket". The Oklahoman . Retrieved April 24, 2017.
  13. "Former Mayor Adams Endorses MICK!". Mick Cornett for Oklahoma Governor. July 13, 2018. Archived from the original on July 29, 2018. Retrieved July 28, 2018.
  14. "Former Mayor Bartlett Jr. Endorses MICK!". Mick Cornett for Oklahoma Governor. July 13, 2018. Archived from the original on July 29, 2018. Retrieved July 28, 2018.
  15. "Mayor Burdge Endorses MICK!". Mick Cornett for Oklahoma Governor. July 13, 2018. Archived from the original on July 29, 2018. Retrieved July 28, 2018.
  16. "Mayor Cathey Endorses MICK!". Mick Cornett for Oklahoma Governor. July 13, 2018. Archived from the original on July 29, 2018. Retrieved July 28, 2018.
  17. "Mayor Copeland Endorses MICK!". Mick Cornett for Oklahoma Governor. July 13, 2018. Archived from the original on July 29, 2018. Retrieved July 28, 2018.
  18. "Former Mayor Douglas Endorses MICK!". Mick Cornett for Oklahoma Governor. July 13, 2018. Archived from the original on July 29, 2018. Retrieved July 28, 2018.
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  20. "Facebook". Facebook . August 24, 2018.
  21. "Mayor Linley Endorses MICK!". Mick Cornett for Oklahoma Governor. July 13, 2018. Archived from the original on July 29, 2018. Retrieved July 28, 2018.
  22. "Former Mayor Naifeh Endorses MICK!". Mick Cornett for Oklahoma Governor. July 13, 2018. Archived from the original on July 29, 2018. Retrieved July 28, 2018.
  23. "Mayor Nicholson Endorses MICK!". Mick Cornett for Oklahoma Governor. July 13, 2018. Archived from the original on July 29, 2018. Retrieved July 28, 2018.
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  25. "Mayor Sheway Endorses MICK!". Mick Cornett for Oklahoma Governor. July 13, 2018. Archived from the original on July 29, 2018. Retrieved July 28, 2018.
  26. "WHAT A SHOCK! Mayor Shockley Endorses MICK!". Mick Cornett for Oklahoma Governor. July 13, 2018. Archived from the original on July 29, 2018. Retrieved July 28, 2018.
  27. "Mayor Smiley Endorses MICK!". Mick Cornett for Oklahoma Governor. July 13, 2018. Archived from the original on July 29, 2018. Retrieved July 28, 2018.
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