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Turnout | 56.42% ![]() | |||||||||||||||
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Feinstein: 50–60% 60–70% de León: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% | ||||||||||||||||
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Elections in California |
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The 2018 United States Senate election in California took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent California, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections.
Under California's non-partisan blanket primary law, all candidates appear on the same ballot, regardless of party. In the primary, voters may vote for any candidate, regardless of their party affiliation. In the California system, the top two finishers — regardless of party — advance to the general election in November, even if a candidate receives a majority of the votes cast in the primary election. Washington and Louisiana have similar "jungle primary" style processes for U.S. Senate elections, as does Mississippi for U.S. Senate special elections.
The candidate filing deadline was March 8, 2018, and the primary election was held on June 5, 2018. [1]
Democratic incumbent Dianne Feinstein won re-election in 2012 with 63% of the vote, taking the record for the most popular votes in any U.S. Senate election in history, with 7.86 million votes. [2] Feinstein, at the time, was the ranking member of the Senate Judiciary Committee. She turned 85 years old in 2018, leading some to speculate that she would retire in January 2019, [3] [4] as her long-time colleague Barbara Boxer did in January 2017. However, Feinstein ran for re-election to her fifth full term, winning 44.2% of the vote in the top-two primary; she faced Democratic challenger Kevin de León in the general election, who won 12.1% of the primary vote. [5] For the second time since direct elections to the Senate began after the passage of the Seventeenth Amendment in 1913, no Republican appeared on the general election ballot for the U.S. Senate in California. The highest Republican finisher in the primary won only 8.3 percent of the vote, and the 10 Republicans only won 31.2 percent of the vote among them. Briefly, during the early stages of the primary, Patrick Little, a Neo-Nazi running as a Republican polled at 18% which at the time put him in second place and the likely runoff candidate against Feinstein, however, his campaign collapsed after the media reported on his views.
In the general election, Feinstein defeated de León by an eight-point margin, 54% to 46%. This was Feinstein's closest election since 1994, as well as her last run for elected office, as she died in office in September 2023. [6]
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Campaign finance reports as of May 16, 2018 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Total receipts | Total disbursements | Cash on hand |
Dianne Feinstein (D) | $9,953,612 | $5,342,658 | $7,035,307 |
Kevin de León (D) | $1,135,538 | $441,847 | $693,689 |
Pat Harris (D) | $703,982 | $650,225 | $51,017 |
Alison Hartson (D) | $298,296 | $189,652 | $108,643 |
Arun K. Bhumitra (R) | $53,668 | $40,835 | $12,832 |
David Hildebrand (D) | $27,111 | $25,816 | $1,294 |
Erin Cruz (R) | $26,442 | $23,190 | $3,251 |
Douglas Howard Pierce (D) | $9,000 | $62,392 | $11,200 |
Paul Allen Taylor (R) | $9,128 | $8,803 | $324 |
Tom Palzer (R) | $0 | $45 | $45 |
David Moore (SEP) | $3,480 | $3,480 | $0 |
Source: Federal Election Commission [114] |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | James P. Bradley (R) | Erin Cruz (R) | Pat Harris (D) | Rocky De La Fuente (R) | Kevin de León (D) | Dianne Feinstein (D) | Alison Hartson (D) | Patrick Little (R) | Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UC Berkeley [115] | May 22−28, 2018 | 2,106 | ± 3.5% | 7% | – | – | – | 11% | 36% | – | – | 46% [116] |
Emerson College [117] | May 21–24, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.2% | – | 5% | 6% | 4% | 6% | 38% | 4% | – | 38% [118] |
YouGov [119] | May 12–24, 2018 | 1,113 | ± 4.0% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 11% | 36% | 1% | 1% | 37% [120] |
SurveyUSA [121] | May 21, 2018 | 678 | ± 6.1% | 9% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 11% | 36% | 1% | 0% | 35% [122] |
Public Policy Institute of California [123] | May 11–20, 2018 | 901 | ± 4.1% | – | – | – | – | 17% | 41% | – | – | 41% [124] |
USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times [125] | April 18 – May 18, 2018 | 517 | ± 4.0% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 7% | 31% | 1% | 2% | 51% [126] |
Gravis Marketing [127] | May 4–5, 2018 | 525 | ± 4.3% | 19% | 13% | – | – | 8% | 32% | 6% | – | 21% [128] |
SurveyUSA [129] | April 19–23, 2018 | 520 | ± 5.5% | – | – | – | 8% | 8% | 38% | 4% | 18% | 23% [130] |
UC Berkeley [131] | April 16–22, 2018 | 1,738 | ± 3.5% | 10% | – | – | – | 11% | 28% | – | – | 49% [132] |
Public Policy Institute of California [133] | March 4–13, 2018 | 1,706 | ± 3.4% | – | – | – | – | 16% | 42% | – | – | 41% [134] |
Public Policy Institute of California [135] | January 21–30, 2018 | 1,705 | ± 3.2% | – | – | – | – | 17% | 46% | – | – | 36% [136] |
UC Berkeley [137] | December 7–16, 2017 | 672 | ± 3.8% | – | – | – | – | 27% | 41% | – | – | 32% [138] |
Public Policy Institute of California [139] | November 10–19, 2017 | 1,070 | ± 4.3% | – | – | – | – | 21% | 45% | – | – | 34% [140] |
Sextant Strategies & Research [141] | September 2017 | 1,197 | ± 3.4% | – | – | – | – | 15% | 38% | – | – | 46% [142] |
with Timothy Charles Kalemkarian, Caren Lancona, John Melendez, and Stephen Schrader
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Kevin de León (D) | Dianne Feinstein (D) | Timothy Charles Kalemkarian (R) | Caren Lancona (R) | Patrick Little (R) | John Melendez (D) | Stephen Schrader (R) | Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SurveyUSA [143] | March 22–25, 2018 | 517 | ± 5.0% | 5% | 31% | 5% | 2% | 5% | 5% | 7% | 42% [144] |
SurveyUSA [145] | January 7–9, 2018 | 506 | ± 4.4% | 4% | 34% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 2% | 5% | 38% [146] |
with Tom Steyer
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Kevin de León (D) | Dianne Feinstein (D) | Timothy Charles Kalemkarian (R) | Caren Lancona (R) | Patrick Little (R) | Tom Steyer (D) | Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SurveyUSA [145] | January–9, 2018 | 506 | ± 4.4% | 3% | 29% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 46% [147] |
with John Cox
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | John Cox (R) | Kevin de León (D) | Dianne Feinstein (D) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sextant Strategies & Research [148] | September 2017 | 1,197 | ± 3.4% | 32% | 14% | 40% | 14% |
with Xavier Becerra, Kevin Faulconer, Brad Sherman, Eric Swalwell, and Ashley Swearingin
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Xavier Becerra (D) | Kevin de León (D) | Kevin Faulconer (R) | Brad Sherman (D) | Eric Swalwell (D) | Ashley Swearingin (R) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling [149] | January 17–18, 2017 | 882 | ± 3.3% | 21% | 4% | 18% | 11% | 5% | 13% | 28% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Dianne Feinstein (incumbent) | 2,947,035 | 44.12% | |
Democratic | Kevin de León | 805,446 | 12.07% | |
Republican | James P. Bradley | 556,252 | 8.34% | |
Republican | Arun K. Bhumitra | 350,815 | 5.26% | |
Republican | Paul A. Taylor | 323,533 | 4.85% | |
Republican | Erin Cruz | 267,494 | 4.01% | |
Republican | Tom Palzer | 205,183 | 3.08% | |
Democratic | Alison Hartson | 147,061 | 2.21% | |
Republican | Rocky De La Fuente | 135,278 | 2.03% | |
Democratic | Pat Harris | 126,947 | 1.90% | |
Republican | John "Jack" Crew | 93,806 | 1.41% | |
Republican | Patrick Little | 89,867 | 1.35% | |
Republican | Kevin Mottus | 87,646 | 1.31% | |
Republican | Jerry Joseph Laws | 67,140 | 1.01% | |
Libertarian | Derrick Michael Reid | 59,999 | 0.90% | |
Democratic | Adrienne Nicole Edwards | 56,172 | 0.84% | |
Democratic | Douglas Howard Pierce | 42,671 | 0.64% | |
Republican | Mario Nabliba | 39,209 | 0.59% | |
Democratic | David Hildebrand | 30,305 | 0.45% | |
Democratic | Donnie O. Turner | 30,101 | 0.45% | |
Democratic | Herbert G. Peters | 27,468 | 0.41% | |
No party preference | David Moore | 24,614 | 0.37% | |
No party preference | Ling Ling Shi | 23,506 | 0.35% | |
Peace and Freedom | John Thompson Parker | 22,825 | 0.34% | |
No party preference | Lee Olson | 20,393 | 0.31% | |
Democratic | Gerald Plummer | 18,234 | 0.27% | |
No party preference | Jason M. Hanania | 18,171 | 0.27% | |
No party preference | Don J. Grundmann | 15,125 | 0.23% | |
No party preference | Colleen Shea Fernald | 13,536 | 0.20% | |
No party preference | Rash Bihari Ghosh | 12,557 | 0.19% | |
No party preference | Tim Gildersleeve | 8,482 | 0.13% | |
No party preference | Michael Fahmy Girgis | 2,986 | 0.05% | |
Green | Michael V. Ziesing (write-in) | 842 | 0.01% | |
No party preference | Ursula M. Schilling (write-in) | 17 | 0.00% | |
Democratic | Seelam Prabhakar Reddy (write-in) | 4 | 0.00% | |
Total votes | 6,670,720 | 100.00% |
Democratic candidates won a combined total of 4,231,444 votes, Republican candidates 2,216,223 votes, and other candidates 223,053 votes.
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Campaign finance reports as of October 19, 2018 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Total receipts | Total disbursements | Cash on hand |
Dianne Feinstein (D) | $21,100,086.64 | $17,896,407.61 | $4,069,222.18 |
Kevin de León (D) | $1,572,160.70 | $1,263,113.97 | $309,045.58 |
Source: Federal Election Commission [114] |
Because of California's top-two runoff system, the seat was guaranteed to be won/held by a Democrat since the initial primary produced two Democratic candidates.
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report [154] | Solid D (Feinstein) | September 28, 2018 |
Inside Elections [155] | Solid D (Feinstein) | November 14, 2017 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball [156] | Safe D (Feinstein) | November 15, 2017 |
Daily Kos [157] | Safe D (Feinstein) | April 9, 2018 |
Fox News [158] | Likely D (Feinstein) [a] | July 9, 2018 |
CNN [159] | Solid D (Feinstein) | July 12, 2018 |
RealClearPolitics [160] | Safe D (Feinstein) | June 27, 2018 |
FiveThirtyEight [161] | Solid D (Feinstein) | October 20, 2018 |
![]() | Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. Updates on reimplementing the Graph extension, which will be known as the Chart extension, can be found on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Dianne Feinstein (D) | Kevin de León (D) | None | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Change Research [162] | November 2–4, 2018 | 1,108 | – | 42% | 32% | – | – | – |
Research Co. [163] | November 1–3, 2018 | 450 | ± 4.6% | 47% | 28% | – | – | 25% |
SurveyUSA [164] | November 1–2, 2018 | 806 | ± 4.7% | 50% | 36% | – | – | 14% |
Probolsky Research [165] | October 25–30, 2018 | 900 | ± 3.3% | 41% | 35% | – | – | 24% |
UC Berkeley [166] | October 19–25, 2018 | 1,339 | ± 4.0% | 45% | 36% | – | – | 19% |
YouGov [167] | October 10–24, 2018 | 2,178 | ± 3.1% | 36% | 29% | 19% | – | 16% |
Public Policy Institute of California [168] | October 12–21, 2018 | 989 | ± 4.2% | 43% | 27% | 23% | – | 8% |
Emerson College [169] | October 17–19, 2018 | 671 | ± 4.1% | 41% | 23% | – | – | 37% |
SurveyUSA [170] | October 12–14, 2018 | 762 | ± 4.9% | 40% | 26% | – | – | 35% |
USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times [171] | September 17 – October 14, 2018 | 794 LV | ± 4.0% | 44% | 31% | – | – | 25% |
980 RV | ± 4.0% | 41% | 30% | – | – | 29% | ||
1st Tuesday Campaigns [172] | October 1–3, 2018 | 1,038 | ± 3.0% | 43% | 30% | – | – | 27% |
Vox Populi Polling [173] | September 16–18, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 55% | 45% | – | – | – |
Public Policy Institute of California [174] | September 9–18, 2018 | 964 | ± 4.8% | 40% | 29% | 23% | – | 8% |
Ipsos [175] | September 5–14, 2018 | 1,021 | ± 4.0% | 44% | 24% | – | 17% | 15% |
Probolsky Research (R) [176] | August 29 – September 2, 2018 | 900 | ± 5.8% | 37% | 29% | – | – | 34% |
Public Policy Institute of California [177] | July 8–17, 2018 | 1,020 | ± 4.3% | 46% | 24% | 20% | – | 9% |
SurveyUSA [178] | June 26–27, 2018 | 559 | ± 5.9% | 46% | 24% | – | – | 31% |
USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times [179] | June 6–17, 2018 | 767 | ± 4.0% | 36% | 18% | – | – | 46% |
Probolsky Research (R) [180] | April 16–18, 2018 | 900 | ± 3.3% | 38% | 27% | – | – | 35% |
USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times [181] | October 27 – November 6, 2017 | 1,296 | ± 4.0% | 58% | 31% | 31% | 10% | – |
Sextant Strategies & Research [182] | September 2017 | 1,554 | – | 36% | 17% | 28% | – | 19% |
with Feinstein, de León, and Tom Steyer
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Kevin de León (D) | Dianne Feinstein (D) | Tom Steyer (D) | Not voting | Other |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times [181] | October 27 – November 6, 2017 | 949 | ± 4.0% | 24% | 50% | 17% | 31% | 9% |
with Feinstein, de León, and John Cox
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | John Cox (R) | Kevin de León (D) | Dianne Feinstein (D) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sextant Strategies & Research [183] | September 2017 | 1,197 | ± 3.4% | 30% | 15% | 38% | 17% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Dianne Feinstein (incumbent) | 6,019,422 | 54.16% | −8.36% | |
Democratic | Kevin de León | 5,093,942 | 45.84% | N/A | |
Total votes | 11,113,364 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
Democratic hold |
The race had an undervote of around 1.3 million votes compared to the gubernatorial election, likely by Republican voters choosing neither candidate. De León won many of the same counties and congressional districts won by Republican gubernatorial nominee John Cox, as many voters may have expressed opposition to the incumbent senator. No county voted for both Feinstein and Cox. Congressional districts 39, 45, and 48 were the only congressional districts that voted for both Feinstein and Cox. [184] [185]
Results by county. Blue represents counties won by Feinstein. Cyan represents counties won by de León. [186]
County | Feinstein # | Feinstein % | de León # | de León % | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Alameda | 318,377 | 58.4 | 226,950 | 41.6 | 545,327 |
Alpine | 267 | 48.8 | 280 | 51.2 | 547 |
Amador | 5,835 | 41.4 | 8,244 | 58.6 | 14,079 |
Butte | 32,418 | 42.9 | 43,108 | 57.1 | 75,526 |
Calaveras | 7,031 | 40.4 | 10,357 | 59.6 | 17,388 |
Colusa | 1,643 | 35.1 | 3,039 | 64.9 | 4,682 |
Contra Costa | 222,349 | 58.3 | 158,748 | 41.7 | 381,097 |
Del Norte | 2,590 | 37.8 | 4,254 | 62.2 | 6,844 |
El Dorado | 33,772 | 46.5 | 38,791 | 53.5 | 72,563 |
Fresno | 103,491 | 47.7 | 113,557 | 52.3 | 217,048 |
Glenn | 2,341 | 34.8 | 4,388 | 65.2 | 6,729 |
Humboldt | 21,336 | 44.8 | 26,319 | 55.2 | 47,655 |
Imperial | 13,121 | 43.3 | 17,150 | 56.7 | 30,271 |
Inyo | 2,344 | 39.9 | 3,532 | 60.1 | 5,876 |
Kern | 66,628 | 40.0 | 99,981 | 60.0 | 166,609 |
Kings | 9,599 | 37.9 | 15,748 | 62.1 | 25,347 |
Lake | 8,142 | 44.1 | 10,317 | 55.9 | 18,459 |
Lassen | 2,030 | 29.8 | 4,788 | 70.2 | 6,818 |
Los Angeles | 1,565,167 | 57.7 | 1,146,044 | 42.3 | 2,711,211 |
Madera | 13,284 | 41.1 | 19,032 | 58.9 | 32,316 |
Marin | 80,319 | 65.3 | 42,638 | 34.7 | 122,957 |
Mariposa | 2,749 | 41.1 | 3,939 | 58.9 | 6,688 |
Mendocino | 15,113 | 49.3 | 15,529 | 50.7 | 30,642 |
Merced | 23,659 | 45.8 | 27,985 | 54.2 | 51,644 |
Modoc | 751 | 28.7 | 1,867 | 71.3 | 2,618 |
Mono | 2,001 | 47.7 | 2,197 | 52.3 | 4,198 |
Monterey | 56,320 | 52.7 | 50,562 | 47.3 | 106,882 |
Napa | 27,904 | 54.5 | 23,290 | 45.5 | 51,194 |
Nevada | 22,198 | 48.1 | 23,911 | 51.9 | 46,109 |
Orange | 501,678 | 54.4 | 420,814 | 45.6 | 922,492 |
Placer | 66,578 | 46.5 | 76,733 | 53.5 | 143,311 |
Plumas | 2,815 | 38.9 | 4,428 | 61.1 | 7,243 |
Riverside | 269,567 | 49.2 | 278,409 | 50.8 | 547,976 |
Sacramento | 241,571 | 53.0 | 213,949 | 47.0 | 455,520 |
San Benito | 8,607 | 47.9 | 9,371 | 52.1 | 17,978 |
San Bernardino | 233,103 | 50.0 | 233,360 | 50.0 | 466,463 |
San Diego | 526,628 | 52.9 | 468,564 | 47.1 | 995,192 |
San Francisco | 226,167 | 64.2 | 125,954 | 35.8 | 352,121 |
San Joaquin | 79,088 | 46.1 | 92,351 | 53.9 | 171,439 |
San Luis Obispo | 53,242 | 49.6 | 54,027 | 50.4 | 107,269 |
San Mateo | 168,679 | 63.0 | 99,136 | 37.0 | 267,815 |
Santa Barbara | 75,274 | 55.1 | 61,217 | 44.9 | 136,491 |
Santa Clara | 339,866 | 59.8 | 228,642 | 40.2 | 568,508 |
Santa Cruz | 64,178 | 57.5 | 47,416 | 42.5 | 111,594 |
Shasta | 19,397 | 34.9 | 36,227 | 65.1 | 55,624 |
Sierra | 506 | 38.5 | 808 | 61.5 | 1,314 |
Siskiyou | 5,772 | 39.3 | 8,930 | 60.7 | 14,702 |
Solano | 70,174 | 52.9 | 62,506 | 47.1 | 132,680 |
Sonoma | 108,472 | 56.0 | 85,220 | 44.0 | 193,692 |
Stanislaus | 58,375 | 42.9 | 77,724 | 57.1 | 136,099 |
Sutter | 10,501 | 42.6 | 14,166 | 57.4 | 24,667 |
Tehama | 5,435 | 32.6 | 11,253 | 67.4 | 16,688 |
Trinity | 1,746 | 38.1 | 2,838 | 61.9 | 4,584 |
Tulare | 33,005 | 39.9 | 49,765 | 60.1 | 82,770 |
Tuolumne | 7,783 | 40.8 | 11,271 | 59.2 | 19,054 |
Ventura | 137,141 | 51.3 | 130,101 | 48.7 | 267,242 |
Yolo | 35,071 | 51.9 | 32,551 | 48.1 | 67,622 |
Yuba | 6,224 | 39.2 | 9,666 | 60.8 | 15,890 |
Totals | 6,019,422 | 54.2 | 5,093,942 | 45.8 | 11,113,364 |
Feinstein won 38 of the 53 congressional districts, with the remaining 15 going to De León, including seven held by Republicans. [187]
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