2018 United States Senate election in Indiana

Last updated

2018 United States Senate election in Indiana
Flag of Indiana.svg
  2012 November 6, 2018 (2018-11-06) 2024  
Turnout50.42% Decrease2.svg
  Mike Braun, Official Portrait, 116th Congress (cropped).jpg Joe Donnelly, official portrait, 113th Congress (cropped).jpg
Nominee Mike Braun Joe Donnelly
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote1,158,0001,023,553
Percentage50.7%44.8%

2018 United States Senate election in Indiana results map by county.svg
2018 United States Senate election in Indiana by Congressional District.svg
IN Senate 2018.svg
Braun:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%
Donnelly:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%

U.S. senator before election

Joe Donnelly
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Mike Braun
Republican

The 2018 United States Senate election in Indiana took place on November 6, 2018, along with other elections to the United States Senate and House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic Senator Joe Donnelly lost re-election to a second term to Republican Mike Braun by a 6% margin. This was the second consecutive election for this seat where the incumbent was defeated and/or the seat flipped parties.

Contents

In 2017, Politico described the race as "possibly the GOP's best opportunity to seize a Senate seat from Democrats" in the 2018 elections. [1] The primary election was held on May 8, 2018. [2] In October 2018, RealClearPolitics rated the race a toss-up between the Democratic and Republican nominees, with the Libertarian receiving a poll average of 6%. [3]

Background

In 2012, Joe Donnelly was elected to the Senate with 50% of the vote to Republican nominee Richard Mourdock's 44%. In the 2016 presidential election, Republican nominee Donald Trump won Indiana with about 56.5% of the vote to Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton's 37.5%. [4] [5]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Withdrew

  • Martin Del Rio, Iraq War veteran [7] [8]

Endorsements

Joe Donnelly
47th Vice President of the United States
United States Senator
Organization

Results

Democratic primary results [14]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Joe Donnelly (incumbent) 284,621 100.00%
Total votes284,621 100.00%

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in the primary election

Declined

Withdrawn

Endorsements

Luke Messer
U.S. Representatives
State-level officials
Former state party chairs
Local-level officials
Individuals
Todd Rokita
State-level officials
Former state party chairs
Local-level officials
Individuals
Newspapers

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Luke
Messer
Todd
Rokita
Mike
Braun
OtherUndecided
Strategic National (R) May 5–6, 2018300± 5.7%29%28%44%
Gravis Marketing Archived November 28, 2020, at the Wayback Machine April 6–11, 2018280± 5.9%13%16%26%45%
GS Strategy Group (R-Rokita) January 6–9, 2018500± 4.4%9%24%9%58%
GS Strategy Group (R-Rokita) July 16–18, 2017500± 4.4%20%28%51%
14%21%11%55%
OnMedia (R-Messer) Archived August 13, 2017, at the Wayback Machine July 10–12, 2017400± 4.8%23%23%2%7% [lower-alpha 1] 45%

Results

Results by county:
.mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{}
Braun
80-90%
60-70%
50-60%
40-50%
<40%
Rokita
<40%
40-50%
Messer
<40%
40-50%
50-60%
60-70% Indiana U.S. Senate Republican primary, 2018.svg
Results by county:
  Braun
  •   80–90%
  •   60–70%
  •   50–60%
  •   40–50%
  •   <40%
  Rokita
  •   <40%
  •   40–50%
  Messer
  •   <40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
Republican primary results [14]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Mike Braun 208,602 41.17%
Republican Todd Rokita 151,96729.99%
Republican Luke Messer 146,13128.84%
Total votes506,700 100.00%

Independent

Candidates

Declared

  • James Johnson Jr. [60]

General election

Candidates

Debates

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [61] TossupOctober 26, 2018
Inside Elections [62] TossupNovember 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball [63] Lean R (flip)November 5, 2018
CNN [64] TossupNovember 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics [65] TossupNovember 5, 2018
Daily Kos [66] TossupNovember 5, 2018
Fox News [67] TossupNovember 5, 2018

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of October 17, 2018
Candidate (party)Total receiptsTotal disbursementsCash on hand
Joe Donnelly (D)$16,100,528$13,872,981$2,321,981
Mike Braun (R)$16,964,706$15,576,842$1,387,861
Source: Federal Election Commission [68]

Endorsements

Mike Braun (R)
U.S. Executive Branch Officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Governors
State Senators
State Representatives
Cabinet-level officials
Individuals
Organizations
Joe Donnelly (D)
U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
Local officials
Individuals
Organizations
Newspapers
Declined to endorse
Organizations
  • Indiana Chamber of Commerce [130]
Newspapers

Polling

Graphical summary
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Joe
Donnelly (D)
Mike
Braun (R)
Lucy
Brenton (L)
OtherUndecided
HarrisX November 3–5, 2018600± 4.0%42%43%
HarrisX November 2–4, 2018600± 4.0%43%41%
HarrisX November 1–3, 2018600± 4.0%43%42%
HarrisX October 31 – November 2, 2018600± 4.0%44%42%
HarrisX October 30 – November 1, 2018600± 4.0%43%43%
HarrisX October 29–31, 2018600± 4.0%40%43%
Fox News October 27–30, 2018722 LV± 3.5%45%38%5%2%9%
852 RV± 3.0%42%38%6%2%11%
HarrisX Archived November 6, 2018, at the Wayback Machine October 24–30, 20181,400± 2.6%42%42%
NBC News/Marist October 24–28, 2018496 LV± 5.5%45%42%7%<1%5%
48%46%2%5%
800 RV± 4.2%43%40%9%<1%7%
47%45%2%7%
Cygnal (R) October 26–27, 2018505± 4.4%46%49%3%2%
YouGov October 23–26, 2018975± 3.7%43%46%3%0%8%
Mason Strategies (R) October 15–20, 2018600± 3.9%43%47%3%7%
American Viewpoint (R-Braun) October 14–17, 201880040%44%7%5%
SurveyUSA October 12–16, 2018816± 4.6%41%40%8%11%
Gravis Marketing October 12–16, 2018377± 5.1%44%40%7%10%
Vox Populi Polling October 13–15, 2018783± 3.5%55%45%
American Viewpoint (R-Braun) October 7–10, 201880040%44%7%7%
American Viewpoint (R-Braun) September 30 – October 3, 201880039%43%7%5%
Fox News September 29 – October 2, 2018695 LV± 3.5%43%41%6%2%9%
806 RV± 3.5%41%40%6%1%10%
Ipsos September 12–20, 20181,181± 3.0%46%43%3%8%
Fox News September 8–11, 2018677 LV± 3.5%43%45%3%1%8%
804 RV± 3.5%42%41%4%1%10%
NBC News/Marist August 26–29, 2018576 LV± 5.0%44%41%8%1%6%
49%43%2%7%
816 RV± 4.2%43%40%8%1%8%
48%42%2%9%
Trafalgar Group (R) July 31 – August 7, 20181,420± 2.6%51%39%11%
SurveyMonkey/Axios June 11 – July 2, 2018952± 5.0%47%49%4%
Gravis Marketing May 10–15, 2018400± 4.9%46%47%7%
Hypothetical polling
with Todd Rokita
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Joe
Donnelly (D)
Todd
Rokita (R)
Undecided
Gravis Marketing Archived November 28, 2020, at the Wayback Machine April 6–11, 2018411± 4.8%50%32%18%
with Luke Messer
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Joe
Donnelly (D)
Luke
Messer (R)
Undecided
Gravis Marketing Archived November 28, 2020, at the Wayback Machine April 6–11, 2018411± 4.8%46%36%18%
with generic Republican
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Joe
Donnelly (D)
Generic
Republican
Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios February 12 – March 5, 20181,809± 3.8%45%51%4%

Results

State House district results 2018 Indiana Senate Election by State House Districts.svg
State House district results

On November 6, 2018, Braun won the general election. [133] He swept southern Indiana, the exurbs of Indianapolis, and most other rural areas in the state. Donnelly ran well behind his 2012 vote totals, winning only in Indianapolis, the university centers (Bloomington, Terre Haute, West Lafayette, South Bend), and the suburbs of Chicago in Northwest Indiana. [134]

United States Senate election in Indiana, 2018 [135]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Mike Braun 1,158,000 50.7% +6.5%
Democratic Joe Donnelly (incumbent)1,023,55344.8%-5.2%
Libertarian Lucy Brenton100,9424.4%-1.3%
Write-in 70<0.01%N/A
Total votes2,282,565 100.00% N/A
Republican gain from Democratic

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Braun won 6 of 9 congressional districts, with Donnelly winning the other 3, including one held by a Republican.

DistrictBraunDonnellyElected
Representative
1st 37.9%60.6% Pete Visclosky
2nd 51.0%45.5% Jackie Walorski
3rd 59.6%36.7% Jim Banks
4th 57.9%37.4% Jim Baird
5th 47.9%48.4% Susan Brooks
6th 60.8%34.3% Greg Pence
7th 31.8%64.5% André Carson
8th 57.3%38.4% Larry Bucshon
9th 54.3%41.5% Trey Hollingsworth

Voter Demographics

Edison Research exit poll
Demographic subgroupDonnellyBraunNo
Answer
 % of
Voters
Gender
Men4057349
Women4946551
Age
18–29 years old4845713
30–44 years old4943820
45–64 years old4454339
65 and older4157128
Race
White 4056486
Black 881118
Latino 712263
Asian N/AN/AN/A1
OtherN/AN/AN/A2
Race by gender
White men3562342
White women4451544
Black men821524
Black women95504
Latino menN/AN/AN/A1
Latina womenN/AN/AN/A2
OthersN/AN/AN/A2
Education
High school or less4056423
Some college education4054626
Associate degree 4155413
Bachelor's degree 4651322
Advanced degree6136216
Education and race
White college graduates4948334
White no college degree3362553
Non-white college graduates801924
Non-white no college degree7620410
Whites by education and gender
White women with college degrees5739417
White women without college degrees3659627
White men with college degrees4157217
White men without college degrees3165426
Non-whites7720314
Income
Under $30,0004944815
$30,000–49,9994649423
$50,000–99,9994455235
$100,000–199,9994452422
Over $200,000N/AN/AN/A5
Party ID
Democrats 926229
Republicans 890239
Independents 4744931
Party by gender
Democratic men926212
Democratic women935218
Republican men891119
Republican women890220
Independent men4252718
Independent women55331213
Ideology
Liberals 868620
Moderates 5937540
Conservatives 1088240
Marital status
Married4354361
Unmarried5146339
Gender by marital status
Married men3860231
Married women4849330
Unmarried men4253519
Unmarried women6139120
First-time midterm election voter
Yes4153615
No4651385
Most important issue facing the country
Health care 7026441
Immigration 1085527
Economy 3166321
Gun policy 663138
Area type
Urban6333431
Suburban4453344
Rural3758525
Source: CNN [136]

Notes

  1. Curtis Hill* 4%; Mark Hurt†, Terry Henderson†, and Andrew Takami† with 1%. *Hypothetical candidate. †Withdrawn.

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  72. Mike Pence. "Congrats to @braun4indiana on his #INSen primary victory tonight! @RealDonaldTrump & I look forward to working with you in support of the #MAGA agenda. Mike Braun will make Hoosiers proud". Twitter.
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  99. Mike Braun. "Building my business, I've jumped over just about every hurdle D.C. can put in your path; in the Senate, I'll use my experience to help Hoosier business thrive. I'm honored to accept @USChamber's endorsement & look forward to working with them to keep our economy roaring. #INSen". Twitter.
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  101. Mike Braun. "My dad gave me my first shotgun when I was 10 years old and I still use it to this day. I am honored to accept the @NRA's endorsement and to work with them to fight Democrat attacks on Hoosiers' fundamental right to bear arms and defend their families. #INSen". Twitter.
  102. Mike Braun. "Manufacturing is the backbone of Indiana's economy, & I'm honored to accept this endorsement from the leading advocate for Hoosier manufacturers: @IMA1901. I look forward to working with IMA to keep Indiana manufacturing thriving & keep D.C. out of their way. #INSen #IBackBraun". Twitter.
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  106. Joe Donnelly. "Secretary Chuck Hagel has always known the importance of looking after our servicemembers & veterans. We worked closely together to pass the Jacob Sexton Military Suicide Prevention Act – my first bill in the Senate. It was an honor to have him here supporting our campaign". Twitter.
  107. Joe Donnelly. "Thanks @BennetforCO for joining me on the road today to remind Hoosiers to vote early!". Twitter.
  108. Joe Donnelly. "Very happy to have my friend @CoryBooker in Indy with me today. Starting the day right at Kountry Kitchen joined by ministers and @Andre4Congress talking about the importance of getting Hoosiers to the polls". Twitter.
  109. Joe Donnelly. ".@ChrisCoonsforDE and I made 7 different stops across Northwest Indiana yesterday where we met hundreds of Hoosiers who were ready to vote early (or already had!). Make a plan to vote as soon as possible today!". Twitter.
  110. Catherine Cortez Masto. "Great stopping by a Harrison County field office in Indiana to help ensure Hoosiers send @JoeforIndiana back to the Senate! Joe's fighting to protect our health care & ensure those with pre-existing conditions can access the care they need". Twitter.
  111. Joe Donnelly. "Packed house at the USW rally in Chesterton tonight! Thanks to my friend @DickDurbin for joining us! Our @steelworkers know just how much is on the line this election". Twitter.
  112. Tammy Duckworth. "Today I am in Indiana supporting my friend @JoeforIndiana who is in a tough reelection fight. Our first stop was Shapiro's Deli where I got the famous Reuben and talked with voters. We then stopped by the campaign headquarters for a canvass kickoff and some phone banking". Twitter.
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  114. Joe Donnelly. "It was wonderful to have my friend @DougJones in Indianapolis with me this morning. Doug is right -- make sure you're registered and make a plan to vote on November 6!". Twitter.
  115. Joe Donnelly. "Thanks to my friend @amyklobuchar for coming to see all our volunteers in South Bend yesterday! We've got folks all over the state knocking on doors and talking to voters". Twitter.
  116. Brian Schatz. "Today is a good day to send a few bucks, or more, to Joe Donnelly. He's good people". Twitter.
  117. John Gregg. "A great read in @JGfortwayne about @JoeforIndiana working hard for all Hoosiers! 'The hired help' Connecting with farmers big part of Donnelly's re-election effort". Twitter.
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Official campaign websites