2018 United States Senate special election in Mississippi

Last updated

2018 United States Senate special election in Mississippi
Flag of Mississippi (2001-2020).svg
  2014 November 6, 2018 (first round)
November 27, 2018 (runoff)
2020  
Turnout48.14%
  Cindy Hyde-Smith official photo.jpg Mike Espy 20120223-OCE-RBN-1281 (cropped 2) (cropped).jpg Chris McDaniel.png
Candidate Cindy Hyde-Smith Mike Espy Chris McDaniel
First round389,995
41.25%
386,742
40.90%
154,878
16.38%
Runoff 486,769
53.63%
420,819
46.37%
Eliminated

2018 United States Senate special election in Mississippi results map by county.svg
2018 US Senate special election in Mississippi by congressional district.svg
2018 MS Senate special election (first round).svg
2018 United States Senate special runoff election in Mississippi results map by county.svg
2018 US Senate special runoff election in Mississippi by congressional district.svg
2018 MS Senate(Runoff).svg
Hyde-Smith:     30–40%     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Espy:     30–40%     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
McDaniel:     30–40%     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%

U.S. senator before election

Cindy Hyde-Smith [lower-alpha 1]
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Cindy Hyde-Smith
Republican

The 2018 United States Senate special election in Mississippi took place on November 6, 2018.

Contents

On April 1, 2018, a U.S. Senate vacancy was created when Republican senator Thad Cochran resigned from the Senate due to health concerns. [1] Mississippi Governor Phil Bryant appointed Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith to fill the vacancy created by Cochran's resignation. [2] Hyde-Smith sought election to serve the balance of Cochran's term, which was scheduled to expire in January 2021. [3]

On November 6, 2018, per Mississippi law, a nonpartisan top-two special general election took place on the same day as the regularly scheduled U.S. Senate election for the seat then held by Roger Wicker. Party affiliations were not printed on the ballot. [4] Because no candidate gained a simple majority of the vote, a runoff between the top two candidates, Hyde-Smith and Mike Espy, [5] was held on November 27, 2018. Hyde-Smith defeated Espy, 53.63%-46.37%. [6] [7]

The victory made Hyde-Smith the first woman ever elected to the United States Congress from Mississippi. [8]

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Withdrawn

General election

Endorsements

Cindy Hyde-Smith (R)
U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
U.S. Governors
Statewide officials
Political operatives
  • Henry Barbour, Republican National Committeeman for Mississippi
  • Jeanne Luckey, Republican National Committeewoman for Mississippi [28]
Organizations
Chris McDaniel (R)
U.S. Representatives
State legislators
Political operatives
  • Tommy Barnett, treasurer of Remember Mississippi super PAC [39]
  • Laura Van Overschelde, Chair of the Mississippi Tea Party [40]
  • Grant Sowell, Chair of the Tupelo Tea Party [41]
Other individuals
Organizations
Mike Espy (D)
U.S. Executive Branch officials
US Senators
U.S. Representatives
U.S. Governors
Mayors
Individuals
Organizations

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of October 12, 2018
CandidateTotal receiptsTotal disbursementsCash on hand
Cindy Hyde-Smith$1,654,032$264,232$1,389,799
Mike Espy$408,236$126,760$281,476
Chris McDaniel$327,263$171,208$156,054
Source: Federal Election Commission [67]

Polling

Graphical summary
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Cindy
Hyde-Smith
Mike
Espy
Chris
McDaniel
Tobey
Bartee
OtherUndecided
Change Research (D) November 2–4, 20181,00327%40%28%1%
NBC News/Marist October 13–18, 2018511 LV± 6.1%38%29%15%2%<1%15%
856 RV± 4.7%36%28%14%3%1%17%
SurveyMonkey September 9–24, 2018985± 4.3%24%25%19%4%27%
Neighborhood Research Corporation (R-Courageous Conservatives PAC) August 22–23 and 27–30, 2018304± 5.0%27%28%18%27%
The Mellman Group (D-Espy) August 1–7, 2018600± 4.0%29%27%17%
Triumph Campaigns July 30–31, 20182,100± 3.5%41%27%15%1%16%
GS Strategy Group (U.S. Chamber of Commerce) May 1–3, 2018500± 4.4%30%22%17%4% [68]
Triumph Campaigns April 10–11, 20181,000± 3.0%33%33%13%6% [69] 15%
Chism Strategies (D-Espy) March 27, 2018603± 4.0%27%34%21%18%

Results

United States Senate special election in Mississippi, 2018 [70]
CandidateVotes %
Cindy Hyde-Smith (incumbent)389,99541.25%
Mike Espy 386,74240.90%
Chris McDaniel 154,87816.38%
Tobey Bartee13,8521.47%
Total votes945,467 100%

Runoff

During the run-off campaign, while appearing with cattle rancher Colin Hutchinson in Tupelo, Mississippi, Hyde-Smith said, "If he invited me to a public hanging, I'd be in the front row." Hyde-Smith's comment immediately drew harsh criticism, given Mississippi's notorious history of lynchings of African-Americans. In response to the criticism, Hyde-Smith downplayed her comment as "an exaggerated expression of regard" and characterized the backlash as "ridiculous." [71] [72] [73] [74] [75] [76]

Hyde-Smith joined Mississippi Governor Phil Bryant at a news conference in Jackson, Mississippi on November 12, 2018, where she was asked repeatedly about her comment by reporters. In the footage, Hyde-Smith adamantly refused to provide any substantive answer to reporters' questions, responding on five occasions with variations of, "I put out a statement yesterday, and that's all I'm gonna say about it." [77] [78] When reporters redirected questions to Bryant, he defended Hyde-Smith's comment, and changed the subject to abortion, saying he was "confused about where the outrage is at about 20 million African American children that have been aborted." [79]

On November 15, 2018, Hyde-Smith appeared in a video clip saying that it would be "a great idea" to make it more difficult for liberals to vote. [80] Her campaign stated that Hyde-Smith was making an obvious joke, and the video was selectively edited. Both this and the "public hanging" video were released by Lamar White Jr., a Louisiana blogger and journalist. [81] Attention was also drawn to photographs, posted on Facebook four years earlier, of Hyde-Smith and her husband visiting former Confederate President Jefferson Davis' home, a historic site. [82] The photos show her wearing a Confederate hat and posing with a rifle commonly used by Confederate soldiers. [82]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [83] Lean ROctober 26, 2018
Inside Elections [84] Likely RNovember 20, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball [85] Likely RNovember 5, 2018
Fox News [86] Lean ROctober 10, 2018
CNN [87] Safe ROctober 12, 2018
RealClearPolitics [88] Likely ROctober 12, 2018
FiveThirtyEight [89] Lean RNovember 5, 2018

Polling

Graphical summary
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Cindy
Hyde-Smith
Mike
Espy
OtherUndecided
Change Research (D) November 25, 20181,21151%46%
JMC Analytics/Bold Blue Campaigns (D) November 19–21 and 23–24, 2018684± 4.0%54%44%1%
NBC News/Marist October 13–18, 2018511 LV± 6.1%50%36%1%13%
856 RV± 4.7%47%38%1%14%
The Mellman Group (D-Espy) August 1–7, 2018600± 4.0%38%41%
Triumph Campaigns July 30–31, 20182,100± 3.5%48%34%18%
Mason-Dixon April 12–14, 2018625± 4.0%46%34%20%
Triumph Campaigns April 10–11, 20181,000± 3.0%42%36%23%
Hypothetical polling
with Chris McDaniel and Mike Espy
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Chris
McDaniel
Mike
Espy
OtherUndecided
Marist College October 13–18, 2018511 LV± 6.1%36%43%2%19%
856 RV± 4.7%35%43%2%19%
The Mellman Group (D–Espy) August 1–7, 2018600± 4.0%27%45%
Triumph Campaigns July 30–31, 20182,100± 3.5%26%41%33%
Mason-Dixon April 12–14, 2018625± 4.0%40%42%18%
Triumph Campaigns April 10–11, 20181,000± 3.0%24%43%33%

Results

United States Senate special election runoff in Mississippi, 2018 [70]
CandidateVotes %±
Cindy Hyde-Smith (incumbent)486,769 53.63% -6.27%
Mike Espy 420,81946.37%+8.48%
Total votes907,588100%N/A

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Notes

  1. In April 2018, Smith was appointed by Governor Phil Bryant to fill the vacancy caused by the resignation of Senator Thad Cochran, due to ill health.

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Thad Cochran</span> American attorney and politician (1937–2019)

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References

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  25. Donald J. Trump. "...Cindy has voted for our Agenda in the Senate 100% of the time and has my complete and total Endorsement. We need Cindy to win in Mississippi!". Twitter.
  26. Lindsey Graham. "Look forward to campaigning today with President @realDonaldTrump, @VP Pence, and Sen @cindyhydesmith who was as solid as a rock in supporting Judge Kavanaugh. She's strong on the border, the military, and supports conservative judges and limited government". Twitter.
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  56. Brian Schatz. "I'm giving to @espyforsenate please feel free to join me and send help too. Thank you". Twitter.
  57. Elizabeth Warren. "Mississippi – there's still time to vote for Mike @EspyforSenate today! Polls close in two hours, and as long as you're in line by 7pm you can still cast your vote". Twitter.
  58. "Ayanna Pressley travels to Mississippi to campaign for Democrat Mike Espy". The Boston Globe .
  59. "Bennie Thompson urges national Democrats to back Espy Senate bid".
  60. Terri Sewell. "Stompin for @espyforsenate in Mississippi on Friday! Catch the Blue Wave!!! #BlueWaveComing2018". Twitter.
  61. "Deval Patrick to Join Mike Espy in Hattiesburg Saturday".
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  68. Jason Shelton* 4%. *Withdrawn.
  69. Jason Shelton* 6%. *Withdrawn.
  70. 1 2 "2018 GENERAL ELECTION RUNOFF". Mississippi Secretary of State. Retrieved February 20, 2022.
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  72. "Hyde-Smith's 'Public Hanging' Quip Bombs in State with Most Lynchings". Jackson Free Press. November 11, 2018. Retrieved November 11, 2018.
  73. Danner, Chas (November 11, 2018). "Mississippi Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith Joked About Going to a 'Public Hanging'". New York Media LLC. The Intelligencer. Retrieved November 11, 2018.
  74. McCarthy, Waverly (November 11, 2018). "VIDEO: Cindy Hyde-Smith jokes about sitting in "front row" of "public hanging"". WLBT License Subsidiary, LLC. WLBT. Retrieved November 11, 2018.
  75. Sullivan, Kate (November 12, 2018). "GOP Mississippi senator facing criticism over comment about 'public hanging'". Cable News Network. Turner Broadcasting System. Retrieved November 12, 2018.
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