2018 United States Senate special election in Mississippi

For related races, see 2018 United States Senate elections. For the other Senate election in Mississippi held in parallel, see 2018 United States Senate election in Mississippi.

2018 United States Senate special election in Mississippi

←  2014 November 6, 2018 (first round) November 27, 2018 (runoff) 2020  →
Turnout	48.14%
Candidate Cindy Hyde-Smith Mike Espy Chris McDaniel Party Republican Democratic Republican First round 389,995 41.25% 386,742 40.90% 154,878 16.38% Runoff 486,769 53.63% 420,819 46.37% Eliminated
First round county results First round results by congressional district First round precinct results Runoff county results Runoff results by congressional district Runoff precinct results Hyde-Smith:     30–40%     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90% Espy:     30–40%     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90% McDaniel:     30–40%     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80% Bartree:     20–30% Tie:     40–50%     50–60%
U.S. senator before election Cindy Hyde-Smith [a] Republican Elected U.S. Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith Republican

The 2018 United States Senate special election in Mississippi took place on November 6, 2018, in order to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Mississippi. On April 1, 2018, a U.S. Senate vacancy was created when Republican senator Thad Cochran resigned due to health concerns. ^[1] Mississippi Governor Phil Bryant appointed Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith to fill the vacancy. ^[2] Hyde-Smith sought election to serve the balance of Cochran's term, which was scheduled to expire in January 2021. ^[3]

On November 6, 2018, per Mississippi law, a nonpartisan top-two special general election took place on the same day as the regularly scheduled U.S. Senate election for the seat then held by Roger Wicker. Party affiliations were not printed on the ballot. ^[4] Because no candidate gained a simple majority of the vote, a runoff between the top two candidates, Hyde-Smith and Mike Espy, ^[5] was held on November 27, 2018. Hyde-Smith defeated Espy, 53.63%-46.37%. ^{[6] [7]}

The victory made Hyde-Smith the first woman ever elected to Congress from Mississippi. ^[8]

Candidates

• Note: Special elections in Mississippi are officially nonpartisan; however, each candidate's political party affiliation is indicated below.

Declared

• Tobey Bartee (Democratic Party), former Gautier city councilman ^{[9] [10]}
• Mike Espy (Democratic Party), former United States Secretary of Agriculture and former U.S. Representative ^[11]
• Cindy Hyde-Smith (Republican Party), incumbent U.S. Senator and former Mississippi Commissioner of Agriculture and Commerce ^[12]
• Chris McDaniel (Republican Party), state senator and candidate for this seat in 2014 ^{[13] [14]}

Declined

• Jeramey Anderson, state representative (running for MS-4) ^{[15] [16]} (Democratic Party)
• David Baria, Mississippi House of Representatives Minority Leader (running for Class 1 U.S. Senate seat) ^[17] (Democratic Party)
• Phil Bryant, governor of Mississippi ^[18] (Republican Party)
• Jamie Franks, chairman of the Lee County Democratic Party and former state representative ^[19] (Democratic Party)
• Andy Taggart, former chief of staff to former governor Kirk Fordice ^[20] (Republican Party)

Withdrawn

• Jason Shelton, mayor of Tupelo ^{[21] [22] [23]} (Democratic Party)

General election

Endorsements

Cindy Hyde-Smith (R)

Executive branch officials

• Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States ^{[24] [25]}

Senators

• Thad Cochran, former U.S. Senator (R-MS)
• Joni Ernst, U.S. Senator (R-IA)
• Lindsey Graham, U.S. Senator (R-SC) ^[26]
• Trent Lott, former Senate Majority Leader and U.S. Senator (R-MS)
• Roger Wicker, U.S. Senator (R-MS)

US representatives

• Gregg Harper, U.S. Representative (MS-3)
• Trent Kelly, U.S. Representative (MS-1)
• Steven Palazzo, U.S. Representative (MS-4)

Governors

• Haley Barbour, former governor of Mississippi ^[27]
• Phil Bryant, governor of Mississippi

Statewide officials

• Mike Chaney, Insurance Commissioner of Mississippi
• Lynn Fitch, State Treasurer of Mississippi
• Philip Gunn, Speaker of the Mississippi House of Representatives
• Delbert Hosemann, Mississippi Secretary of State
• Stacey Pickering, State Auditor of Mississippi
• Tate Reeves, Lieutenant Governor of Mississippi

Political operatives

• Henry Barbour, Republican National Committeeman for Mississippi
• Jeanne Luckey, Republican National Committeewoman for Mississippi ^[28]

Organizations

• Mississippi Manufacturers Association ^[29]
• National Association of Realtors ^[30]
• National Right to Life Committee ^[31]
• NRA Political Victory Fund ^[32]
• Susan B. Anthony List ^[33]
• U.S. Chamber of Commerce ^[34]

Chris McDaniel (R)

US Representatives

• Ron Paul, former U.S. Representative (TX-14) ^[35]

State legislators

• Dana Criswell, state representative ^[36]
• Steve Hopkins, state representative ^[37]
• Tony Smith, former state senator ^[38]

Political operatives

• Tommy Barnett, treasurer of Remember Mississippi super PAC ^[39]
• Grant Sowell, chair of the Tupelo Tea Party ^[40]
• Laura Van Overschelde, chair of the Mississippi Tea Party ^[41]

Individuals

• Tommy Ferrell, former president of the National Sheriffs' Association ^[42]
• Bryan Fischer, host of the American Family Association's conservative talk radio program Focal Point ^{[43] [44]}
• Lars Larson, talk radio show host ^[45]
• Mark Levin, lawyer, author, and radio personality ^{[46] [47]}
• Kelli Ward, former Arizona State Senator and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2016 and 2018 ^[48]

Organizations

• Adams County GOP Executive Committee ^[49]
• Americans for Legal Immigration PAC ^[50]
• Gun Owners of America ^[51]
• Jones County GOP Executive Committee ^[49]
• Panola County GOP Executive Committee ^[49]
• Tate County GOP Executive Committee ^[49]

Mike Espy (D)

Executive branch officials

• Joe Biden, 47th Vice President of the United States ^[52]
• Barack Obama, 44th President of the United States ^[53]

Senators

• Cory Booker, U.S. Senator (D-NJ) ^[54]
• Kamala Harris, U.S. Senator (D-CA) ^[55]
• Brian Schatz, U.S. Senator (D-HI) ^[56]
• Elizabeth Warren, U.S. Senator (D-MA) ^[57]

US representatives

• Ayanna Pressley, U.S. Representative-elect (MA-7) ^[58]
• Terri Sewell, U.S. Representative (AL-7) ^[59]
• Bennie Thompson, U.S. Representative (MS-2) ^[60]

Governors

• Deval Patrick, former governor of Massachusetts ^[61]

Statewide officials

• Jim Hood, Mississippi Attorney General

Mayors

• Eric Garcetti, mayor of Los Angeles ^[62]
• Mitch Landrieu, former mayor of New Orleans ^[63]

Individuals

• Wesley Clark, U.S. Army general and presidential candidate in 2004 ^[64]
• Alyssa Milano, actress and activist ^[65]

Organizations

• Democracy for America ^[66]

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of October 12, 2018
Candidate	Total receipts	Total disbursements	Cash on hand
Cindy Hyde-Smith	$1,654,032	$264,232	$1,389,799
Mike Espy	$408,236	$126,760	$281,476
Chris McDaniel	$327,263	$171,208	$156,054
Source: Federal Election Commission [67]

Polling

Graphical summary

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Cindy Hyde-Smith	Mike Espy	Chris McDaniel	Tobey Bartee	Other	Undecided
Change Research (D) [68]	November 2–4, 2018	1,003	–	27%	40%	28%	1%	–	–
NBC News/Marist [69]	October 13–18, 2018	511 LV	± 6.1%	38%	29%	15%	2%	<1%	15%
		856 RV	± 4.7%	36%	28%	14%	3%	1%	17%
SurveyMonkey [70]	September 9–24, 2018	985	± 4.3%	24%	25%	19%	4%	–	27%
Neighborhood Research Corporation (R-Courageous Conservatives PAC) [71]	August 22–23 and 27–30, 2018	304	± 5.0%	27%	28%	18%	–	–	27%
The Mellman Group (D-Espy) [72]	August 1–7, 2018	600	± 4.0%	29%	27%	17%	–	–	–
Triumph Campaigns [73]	July 30–31, 2018	2,100	± 3.5%	41%	27%	15%	1%	–	16%
GS Strategy Group (U.S. Chamber of Commerce) [74]	May 1–3, 2018	500	± 4.4%	30%	22%	17%	–	4% [75]	–
Triumph Campaigns [76]	April 10–11, 2018	1,000	± 3.0%	33%	33%	13%	–	6% [77]	15%
Chism Strategies (D-Espy) [78]	March 27, 2018	603	± 4.0%	27%	34%	21%	–	–	18%

Results

United States Senate special election in Mississippi, 2018 ^[79]

Candidate		Votes	%
Cindy Hyde-Smith (incumbent)		389,995	41.25%
Mike Espy		386,742	40.90%
Chris McDaniel		154,878	16.38%
Tobey Bartee		13,852	1.47%
Total votes		945,467	100%

Runoff

During the runoff campaign, while appearing with cattle rancher Colin Hutchinson in Tupelo, Mississippi, Hyde-Smith said, "If he invited me to a public hanging, I'd be in the front row." Hyde-Smith's comment immediately drew harsh criticism, given Mississippi's notorious history of lynchings of African-Americans. In response to the criticism, Hyde-Smith downplayed her comment as "an exaggerated expression of regard" and characterized the backlash as "ridiculous." ^{[80] [81] [82] [83] [84] [85]}

Hyde-Smith joined Mississippi Governor Phil Bryant at a news conference in Jackson, Mississippi on November 12, 2018, where she was asked repeatedly about her comment by reporters. In the footage, Hyde-Smith adamantly refused to provide any substantive answer to reporters' questions, responding on five occasions with variations of, "I put out a statement yesterday, and that's all I'm gonna say about it." ^{[86] [87]} When reporters redirected questions to Bryant, he defended Hyde-Smith's comment, and changed the subject to abortion, saying he was "confused about where the outrage is at about 20 million African American children that have been aborted." ^[88]

On November 15, 2018, Hyde-Smith appeared in a video clip saying that it would be "a great idea" to make it more difficult for liberals to vote. ^[89] Her campaign stated that Hyde-Smith was making an obvious joke, and the video was selectively edited. Both this and the "public hanging" video were released by Lamar White Jr., a Louisiana blogger and journalist. ^[90] Attention was also drawn to photographs, posted on Facebook four years earlier, of Hyde-Smith and her husband visiting former Confederate President Jefferson Davis' home, a historic site. ^[91] The photos show her wearing a Confederate hat and posing with a rifle commonly used by Confederate soldiers. ^[91]

Debate

2018 United States Senate election in Mississippi runoff debate

No.	Date	Host	Moderator	Link	Republican	Democratic
Key:  P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited  W  Withdrawn
					Cindy Hyde-Smith	Mike Espy
1	November 20, 2018	Mississippi Farm Bureau Federation	Maggie Wade	[92]	P	P

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report [93]	Lean R	October 26, 2018
Inside Elections [94]	Likely R	November 20, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball [95]	Likely R	November 5, 2018
Fox News [96]	Lean R	October 10, 2018
CNN [97]	Safe R	October 12, 2018
RealClearPolitics [98]	Likely R	October 12, 2018
FiveThirtyEight [99]	Lean R	November 5, 2018

Polling

Graphical summary

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Cindy Hyde-Smith	Mike Espy	Other	Undecided
Change Research (D) [100]	November 25, 2018	1,211	–	51%	46%	–	–
JMC Analytics/Bold Blue Campaigns (D) [101]	November 19–21 and 23–24, 2018	684	± 4.0%	54%	44%	–	1%
NBC News/Marist [69]	October 13–18, 2018	511 LV	± 6.1%	50%	36%	1%	13%
		856 RV	± 4.7%	47%	38%	1%	14%
The Mellman Group (D-Espy) [72]	August 1–7, 2018	600	± 4.0%	38%	41%	–	–
Triumph Campaigns [73]	July 30–31, 2018	2,100	± 3.5%	48%	34%	–	18%
Mason-Dixon [102]	April 12–14, 2018	625	± 4.0%	46%	34%	–	20%
Triumph Campaigns [76]	April 10–11, 2018	1,000	± 3.0%	42%	36%	–	23%

Hypothetical polling

with Chris McDaniel and Mike Espy Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size Margin of error Chris McDaniel Mike Espy Other Undecided Marist College [103] October 13–18, 2018 511 LV ± 6.1% 36% 43% 2% 19% 856 RV ± 4.7% 35% 43% 2% 19% The Mellman Group (D–Espy) [104] August 1–7, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 27% 45% – – Triumph Campaigns [73] July 30–31, 2018 2,100 ± 3.5% 26% 41% – 33% Mason-Dixon [102] April 12–14, 2018 625 ± 4.0% 40% 42% – 18% Triumph Campaigns [76] April 10–11, 2018 1,000 ± 3.0% 24% 43% – 33%

Results

United States Senate special election runoff in Mississippi, 2018 ^[79]

Candidate		Votes	%	±
Cindy Hyde-Smith (incumbent)		486,769	53.63%	-6.27%
Mike Espy		420,819	46.37%	+8.48%
Total votes		907,588	100%	N/A

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

• Adams (largest city: Natchez)
• Copiah (largest city: Hazlehurst)
• Issaquena (largest city: Mayersville)
• Lowndes (largest city: Columbus)
• Oktibbeha (largest city: Starkville)
• Panola (largest city: Batesville)
• Pike (largest city: McComb)
• Warren (largest city: Vicksburg)
• Yazoo (largest city: Yazoo City)

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Benton (largest municipality: Ashland)
• Prentiss (largest city: Booneville)

By congressional district

Hyde-Smith won three of four congressional districts. ^[105]

District	Hyde-Smith	Espy	Representative
1st	61%	39%	Trent Kelly
2nd	32%	68%	Bennie Thompson
3rd	58%	42%	Michael Guest
4th	65%	35%	Steven Palazzo

Notes

1. In April 2018, Smith was appointed by Governor Phil Bryant to fill the vacancy caused by the resignation of Senator Thad Cochran, due to ill health.

References

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24. Donald J. Trump. ".@cindyhydesmith has helped me put America First! She's strong on the Wall, is helping me create Jobs, loves our Vets and fights for our conservative judges..." Twitter.
25. Donald J. Trump. "...Cindy has voted for our Agenda in the Senate 100% of the time and has my complete and total Endorsement. We need Cindy to win in Mississippi!". Twitter.
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56. Brian Schatz. "I'm giving to @espyforsenate please feel free to join me and send help too. Thank you". Twitter.
57. Elizabeth Warren. "Mississippi – there's still time to vote for Mike @EspyforSenate today! Polls close in two hours, and as long as you're in line by 7pm you can still cast your vote". Twitter.
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74. GS Strategy Group (U.S. Chamber of Commerce)
75. Jason Shelton* 4%. *Withdrawn.
76. Triumph Campaigns
77. Jason Shelton* 6%. *Withdrawn.
78. Chism Strategies (D-Espy)
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97. "Key Races: Senate" . Retrieved July 15, 2018.
98. "Battle for the Senate 2018" . Retrieved July 15, 2018.
99. Silver, Nate. "Mississippi special – 2018 Senate Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Archived from the original on September 21, 2018. Retrieved October 20, 2018.
100. Change Research (D)
101. JMC Analytics/Bold Blue Campaigns (D)
102. Mason-Dixon
103. Marist College
104. The Mellman Group (D–Espy)
105. "DRA 2020". Daves Redistricting. Retrieved August 19, 2024.

External links

• Candidates at Vote Smart
• Candidates at Ballotpedia
• Campaign finance at FEC
• Campaign finance at OpenSecrets

Official campaign websites

• Mike Espy for Senate
• Cindy Hyde-Smith for Senate