2018 United States Senate special election in Mississippi

Last updated

2018 United States Senate special election in Mississippi
Flag of Mississippi (2001-2020).svg
  2014 November 6, 2018 (first round)
November 27, 2018 (runoff)
2020  
Turnout48.14%
  Cindy Hyde-Smith official photo.jpg Mike Espy 20120223-OCE-RBN-1281 (cropped 2) (cropped).jpg Chris McDaniel.png
Candidate Cindy Hyde-Smith Mike Espy Chris McDaniel
Party Republican Democratic Republican
First round389,995
41.25%
386,742
40.90%
154,878
16.38%
Runoff 486,769
53.63%
420,819
46.37%
Eliminated

2018 United States Senate special election in Mississippi results map by county.svg
2018 US Senate special election in Mississippi by congressional district.svg
2018 US Senate Special election in Mississippi first round by precinct.svg
2018 United States Senate special runoff election in Mississippi results map by county.svg
2018 US Senate special runoff election in Mississippi by congressional district.svg
2018 US Senate Special election in Mississippi runoff by precinct.svg
Hyde-Smith:     30–40%     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Espy:     30–40%     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
McDaniel:     30–40%     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%
Bartree:     20–30%
Tie:     40–50%     50–60%

U.S. senator before election

Cindy Hyde-Smith [lower-alpha 1]
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Cindy Hyde-Smith
Republican

The 2018 United States Senate special election in Mississippi took place on November 6, 2018, in order to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Mississippi. On April 1, 2018, a U.S. Senate vacancy was created when Republican senator Thad Cochran resigned due to health concerns. [1] Mississippi Governor Phil Bryant appointed Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith to fill the vacancy. [2] Hyde-Smith sought election to serve the balance of Cochran's term, which was scheduled to expire in January 2021. [3]

Contents

On November 6, 2018, per Mississippi law, a nonpartisan top-two special general election took place on the same day as the regularly scheduled U.S. Senate election for the seat then held by Roger Wicker. Party affiliations were not printed on the ballot. [4] Because no candidate gained a simple majority of the vote, a runoff between the top two candidates, Hyde-Smith and Mike Espy, [5] was held on November 27, 2018. Hyde-Smith defeated Espy, 53.63%-46.37%. [6] [7]

The victory made Hyde-Smith the first woman ever elected to Congress from Mississippi. [8]

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Withdrawn

General election

Endorsements

Cindy Hyde-Smith (R)

U.S. Executive Branch officials

U.S. Senators

U.S. Representatives

U.S. Governors

Statewide officials

Political operatives

  • Henry Barbour, Republican National Committeeman for Mississippi
  • Jeanne Luckey, Republican National Committeewoman for Mississippi [28]

Organizations

Chris McDaniel (R)

U.S. Representatives

State legislators

Political operatives

  • Tommy Barnett, treasurer of Remember Mississippi super PAC [39]
  • Laura Van Overschelde, Chair of the Mississippi Tea Party [40]
  • Grant Sowell, Chair of the Tupelo Tea Party [41]

Other individuals

Organizations

Mike Espy (D)

U.S. Executive Branch officials

US Senators

U.S. Representatives

U.S. Governors

Mayors

Individuals

Organizations

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of October 12, 2018
CandidateTotal receiptsTotal disbursementsCash on hand
Cindy Hyde-Smith$1,654,032$264,232$1,389,799
Mike Espy$408,236$126,760$281,476
Chris McDaniel$327,263$171,208$156,054
Source: Federal Election Commission [67]

Polling

Graphical summary

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Cindy
Hyde-Smith
Mike
Espy
Chris
McDaniel
Tobey
Bartee
OtherUndecided
Change Research (D) [68] November 2–4, 20181,00327%40%28%1%
NBC News/Marist [69] October 13–18, 2018511 LV± 6.1%38%29%15%2%<1%15%
856 RV± 4.7%36%28%14%3%1%17%
SurveyMonkey [70] September 9–24, 2018985± 4.3%24%25%19%4%27%
Neighborhood Research Corporation (R-Courageous Conservatives PAC) [71] August 22–23 and 27–30, 2018304± 5.0%27%28%18%27%
The Mellman Group (D-Espy) [72] August 1–7, 2018600± 4.0%29%27%17%
Triumph Campaigns [73] July 30–31, 20182,100± 3.5%41%27%15%1%16%
GS Strategy Group (U.S. Chamber of Commerce) [74] May 1–3, 2018500± 4.4%30%22%17%4% [75]
Triumph Campaigns [76] April 10–11, 20181,000± 3.0%33%33%13%6% [77] 15%
Chism Strategies (D-Espy) [78] March 27, 2018603± 4.0%27%34%21%18%

Results

United States Senate special election in Mississippi, 2018 [79]
CandidateVotes %
Cindy Hyde-Smith (incumbent)389,99541.25%
Mike Espy 386,74240.90%
Chris McDaniel 154,87816.38%
Tobey Bartee13,8521.47%
Total votes945,467 100%

Runoff

During the run-off campaign, while appearing with cattle rancher Colin Hutchinson in Tupelo, Mississippi, Hyde-Smith said, "If he invited me to a public hanging, I'd be in the front row." Hyde-Smith's comment immediately drew harsh criticism, given Mississippi's notorious history of lynchings of African-Americans. In response to the criticism, Hyde-Smith downplayed her comment as "an exaggerated expression of regard" and characterized the backlash as "ridiculous." [80] [81] [82] [83] [84] [85]

Hyde-Smith joined Mississippi Governor Phil Bryant at a news conference in Jackson, Mississippi on November 12, 2018, where she was asked repeatedly about her comment by reporters. In the footage, Hyde-Smith adamantly refused to provide any substantive answer to reporters' questions, responding on five occasions with variations of, "I put out a statement yesterday, and that's all I'm gonna say about it." [86] [87] When reporters redirected questions to Bryant, he defended Hyde-Smith's comment, and changed the subject to abortion, saying he was "confused about where the outrage is at about 20 million African American children that have been aborted." [88]

On November 15, 2018, Hyde-Smith appeared in a video clip saying that it would be "a great idea" to make it more difficult for liberals to vote. [89] Her campaign stated that Hyde-Smith was making an obvious joke, and the video was selectively edited. Both this and the "public hanging" video were released by Lamar White Jr., a Louisiana blogger and journalist. [90] Attention was also drawn to photographs, posted on Facebook four years earlier, of Hyde-Smith and her husband visiting former Confederate President Jefferson Davis' home, a historic site. [91] The photos show her wearing a Confederate hat and posing with a rifle commonly used by Confederate soldiers. [91]

Debate

2018 United States Senate election in Mississippi runoff debate
No.DateHostModeratorLink Republican Democratic
Key:
 P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited  W  Withdrawn
Cindy Hyde-Smith Mike Espy
1November 20, 2018Mississippi Farm Bureau FederationMaggie Wade [92] PP

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [93] Lean ROctober 26, 2018
Inside Elections [94] Likely RNovember 20, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball [95] Likely RNovember 5, 2018
Fox News [96] Lean ROctober 10, 2018
CNN [97] Safe ROctober 12, 2018
RealClearPolitics [98] Likely ROctober 12, 2018
FiveThirtyEight [99] Lean RNovember 5, 2018

Polling

Graphical summary

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Cindy
Hyde-Smith
Mike
Espy
OtherUndecided
Change Research (D) [100] November 25, 20181,21151%46%
JMC Analytics/Bold Blue Campaigns (D) [101] November 19–21 and 23–24, 2018684± 4.0%54%44%1%
NBC News/Marist [69] October 13–18, 2018511 LV± 6.1%50%36%1%13%
856 RV± 4.7%47%38%1%14%
The Mellman Group (D-Espy) [72] August 1–7, 2018600± 4.0%38%41%
Triumph Campaigns [73] July 30–31, 20182,100± 3.5%48%34%18%
Mason-Dixon [102] April 12–14, 2018625± 4.0%46%34%20%
Triumph Campaigns [76] April 10–11, 20181,000± 3.0%42%36%23%
Hypothetical polling

with Chris McDaniel and Mike Espy

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Chris
McDaniel
Mike
Espy
OtherUndecided
Marist College [103] October 13–18, 2018511 LV± 6.1%36%43%2%19%
856 RV± 4.7%35%43%2%19%
The Mellman Group (D–Espy) [104] August 1–7, 2018600± 4.0%27%45%
Triumph Campaigns [73] July 30–31, 20182,100± 3.5%26%41%33%
Mason-Dixon [102] April 12–14, 2018625± 4.0%40%42%18%
Triumph Campaigns [76] April 10–11, 20181,000± 3.0%24%43%33%

Results

United States Senate special election runoff in Mississippi, 2018 [79]
CandidateVotes %±
Cindy Hyde-Smith (incumbent)486,769 53.63% -6.27%
Mike Espy 420,81946.37%+8.48%
Total votes907,588100%N/A

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Hyde-Smith won 3 of 4 congressional districts. [105]

DistrictHyde-SmithEspyRepresentative
1st 61%39% Trent Kelly
2nd 32%68% Bennie Thompson
3rd 58%42% Michael Guest
4th 65%35% Steven Palazzo

Notes

  1. In April 2018, Smith was appointed by Governor Phil Bryant to fill the vacancy caused by the resignation of Senator Thad Cochran, due to ill health.

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Thad Cochran</span> American attorney and politician (1937–2019)

William Thad Cochran was an American attorney and politician who served as a United States senator for Mississippi from 1978 to 2018. A Republican, he previously served in the U.S. House of Representatives from 1973 to 1978.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Mike Espy</span> American politician

Alphonso Michael Espy is an American lawyer and politician who served as the 25th United States secretary of agriculture from 1993 to 1994. He was both the first African American and the first person from the Deep South to hold the position. A member of the Democratic Party, Espy previously served as the U.S. representative for Mississippi's 2nd congressional district from 1987 to 1993.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Chris McDaniel</span> American politician

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Cindy Hyde-Smith</span> American politician (born 1959)

Cindy Hyde-Smith is an American politician serving as the junior United States senator from Mississippi since 2018. A member of the Republican Party, she was previously the Mississippi Commissioner of Agriculture and Commerce and a member of the Mississippi State Senate.

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References

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  24. Donald J. Trump. ".@cindyhydesmith has helped me put America First! She's strong on the Wall, is helping me create Jobs, loves our Vets and fights for our conservative judges..." Twitter.
  25. Donald J. Trump. "...Cindy has voted for our Agenda in the Senate 100% of the time and has my complete and total Endorsement. We need Cindy to win in Mississippi!". Twitter.
  26. Lindsey Graham. "Look forward to campaigning today with President @realDonaldTrump, @VP Pence, and Sen @cindyhydesmith who was as solid as a rock in supporting Judge Kavanaugh. She's strong on the border, the military, and supports conservative judges and limited government". Twitter.
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  32. "NRA Endorses Hyde-Smith for U.S. Senate". National Rifle Association. August 13, 2018. Archived from the original on August 14, 2018. The National Rifle Association Political Victory Fund (NRA-PVF) announced on Monday its endorsement of Cindy Hyde-Smith to represent Mississippi in the U.S. Senate.
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  56. Brian Schatz. "I'm giving to @espyforsenate please feel free to join me and send help too. Thank you". Twitter.
  57. Elizabeth Warren. "Mississippi – there's still time to vote for Mike @EspyforSenate today! Polls close in two hours, and as long as you're in line by 7pm you can still cast your vote". Twitter.
  58. "Ayanna Pressley travels to Mississippi to campaign for Democrat Mike Espy". The Boston Globe .
  59. "Bennie Thompson urges national Democrats to back Espy Senate bid".
  60. Terri Sewell. "Stompin for @espyforsenate in Mississippi on Friday! Catch the Blue Wave!!! #BlueWaveComing2018". Twitter.
  61. "Deval Patrick to Join Mike Espy in Hattiesburg Saturday".
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  67. "Campaign finance data" . Retrieved October 12, 2018.
  68. Change Research (D)
  69. 1 2 NBC News/Marist
  70. SurveyMonkey
  71. Neighborhood Research Corporation (R-Courageous Conservatives PAC)
  72. 1 2 The Mellman Group (D-Espy)
  73. 1 2 3 Triumph Campaigns
  74. GS Strategy Group (U.S. Chamber of Commerce)
  75. Jason Shelton* 4%. *Withdrawn.
  76. 1 2 3 Triumph Campaigns
  77. Jason Shelton* 6%. *Withdrawn.
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