| |||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||
Turnout | 48.14% | ||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| |||||||||||||||||
Hyde-Smith: 30–40% 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Espy: 30–40% 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% McDaniel: 30–40% 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% | |||||||||||||||||
|
Elections in Mississippi |
---|
The 2018 United States Senate special election in Mississippi took place on November 6, 2018.
On April 1, 2018, a U.S. Senate vacancy was created when Republican senator Thad Cochran resigned from the Senate due to health concerns. [1] Mississippi Governor Phil Bryant appointed Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith to fill the vacancy created by Cochran's resignation. [2] Hyde-Smith sought election to serve the balance of Cochran's term, which was scheduled to expire in January 2021. [3]
On November 6, 2018, per Mississippi law, a nonpartisan top-two special general election took place on the same day as the regularly scheduled U.S. Senate election for the seat then held by Roger Wicker. Party affiliations were not printed on the ballot. [4] Because no candidate gained a simple majority of the vote, a runoff between the top two candidates, Hyde-Smith and Mike Espy, [5] was held on November 27, 2018. Hyde-Smith defeated Espy, 53.63%-46.37%. [6] [7]
The victory made Hyde-Smith the first woman ever elected to the United States Congress from Mississippi. [8]
Campaign finance reports as of October 12, 2018 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Total receipts | Total disbursements | Cash on hand |
Cindy Hyde-Smith | $1,654,032 | $264,232 | $1,389,799 |
Mike Espy | $408,236 | $126,760 | $281,476 |
Chris McDaniel | $327,263 | $171,208 | $156,054 |
Source: Federal Election Commission [67] |
Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Cindy Hyde-Smith | Mike Espy | Chris McDaniel | Tobey Bartee | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Change Research (D) | November 2–4, 2018 | 1,003 | – | 27% | 40% | 28% | 1% | – | – |
NBC News/Marist | October 13–18, 2018 | 511 LV | ± 6.1% | 38% | 29% | 15% | 2% | <1% | 15% |
856 RV | ± 4.7% | 36% | 28% | 14% | 3% | 1% | 17% | ||
SurveyMonkey | September 9–24, 2018 | 985 | ± 4.3% | 24% | 25% | 19% | 4% | – | 27% |
Neighborhood Research Corporation (R-Courageous Conservatives PAC) | August 22–23 and 27–30, 2018 | 304 | ± 5.0% | 27% | 28% | 18% | – | – | 27% |
The Mellman Group (D-Espy) | August 1–7, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 29% | 27% | 17% | – | – | – |
Triumph Campaigns | July 30–31, 2018 | 2,100 | ± 3.5% | 41% | 27% | 15% | 1% | – | 16% |
GS Strategy Group (U.S. Chamber of Commerce) | May 1–3, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 30% | 22% | 17% | – | 4% [68] | – |
Triumph Campaigns | April 10–11, 2018 | 1,000 | ± 3.0% | 33% | 33% | 13% | – | 6% [69] | 15% |
Chism Strategies (D-Espy) | March 27, 2018 | 603 | ± 4.0% | 27% | 34% | 21% | – | – | 18% |
Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|
Cindy Hyde-Smith (incumbent) | 389,995 | 41.25% | |
Mike Espy | 386,742 | 40.90% | |
Chris McDaniel | 154,878 | 16.38% | |
Tobey Bartee | 13,852 | 1.47% | |
Total votes | 945,467 | 100% |
During the run-off campaign, while appearing with cattle rancher Colin Hutchinson in Tupelo, Mississippi, Hyde-Smith said, "If he invited me to a public hanging, I'd be in the front row." Hyde-Smith's comment immediately drew harsh criticism, given Mississippi's notorious history of lynchings of African-Americans. In response to the criticism, Hyde-Smith downplayed her comment as "an exaggerated expression of regard" and characterized the backlash as "ridiculous." [71] [72] [73] [74] [75] [76]
Hyde-Smith joined Mississippi Governor Phil Bryant at a news conference in Jackson, Mississippi on November 12, 2018, where she was asked repeatedly about her comment by reporters. In the footage, Hyde-Smith adamantly refused to provide any substantive answer to reporters' questions, responding on five occasions with variations of, "I put out a statement yesterday, and that's all I'm gonna say about it." [77] [78] When reporters redirected questions to Bryant, he defended Hyde-Smith's comment, and changed the subject to abortion, saying he was "confused about where the outrage is at about 20 million African American children that have been aborted." [79]
On November 15, 2018, Hyde-Smith appeared in a video clip saying that it would be "a great idea" to make it more difficult for liberals to vote. [80] Her campaign stated that Hyde-Smith was making an obvious joke, and the video was selectively edited. Both this and the "public hanging" video were released by Lamar White Jr., a Louisiana blogger and journalist. [81] Attention was also drawn to photographs, posted on Facebook four years earlier, of Hyde-Smith and her husband visiting former Confederate President Jefferson Davis' home, a historic site. [82] The photos show her wearing a Confederate hat and posing with a rifle commonly used by Confederate soldiers. [82]
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report [83] | Lean R | October 26, 2018 |
Inside Elections [84] | Likely R | November 20, 2018 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball [85] | Likely R | November 5, 2018 |
Fox News [86] | Lean R | October 10, 2018 |
CNN [87] | Safe R | October 12, 2018 |
RealClearPolitics [88] | Likely R | October 12, 2018 |
FiveThirtyEight [89] | Lean R | November 5, 2018 |
Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Cindy Hyde-Smith | Mike Espy | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Change Research (D) | November 25, 2018 | 1,211 | – | 51% | 46% | – | – |
JMC Analytics/Bold Blue Campaigns (D) | November 19–21 and 23–24, 2018 | 684 | ± 4.0% | 54% | 44% | – | 1% |
NBC News/Marist | October 13–18, 2018 | 511 LV | ± 6.1% | 50% | 36% | 1% | 13% |
856 RV | ± 4.7% | 47% | 38% | 1% | 14% | ||
The Mellman Group (D-Espy) | August 1–7, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 38% | 41% | – | – |
Triumph Campaigns | July 30–31, 2018 | 2,100 | ± 3.5% | 48% | 34% | – | 18% |
Mason-Dixon | April 12–14, 2018 | 625 | ± 4.0% | 46% | 34% | – | 20% |
Triumph Campaigns | April 10–11, 2018 | 1,000 | ± 3.0% | 42% | 36% | – | 23% |
Hypothetical polling | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Candidate | Votes | % | ± | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Cindy Hyde-Smith (incumbent) | 486,769 | 53.63% | -6.27% | |
Mike Espy | 420,819 | 46.37% | +8.48% | |
Total votes | 907,588 | 100% | N/A |
William Thad Cochran was an American attorney and politician who served as a United States senator for Mississippi from 1978 to 2018. A Republican, he previously served in the U.S. House of Representatives from 1973 to 1978.
Alphonso Michael Espy is an American lawyer and politician who served as the 25th United States secretary of agriculture from 1993 to 1994. He was both the first African American and the first person from the Deep South to hold the position. A member of the Democratic Party, Espy previously served as the U.S. representative for Mississippi's 2nd congressional district from 1987 to 1993.
Christopher Brian McDaniel is an American attorney, talk radio host, perennial candidate for statewide office, and far-right politician who served in the Mississippi State Senate from 2008 to 2024.
Cindy Hyde-Smith is an American politician serving as the junior United States senator from Mississippi since 2018. A member of the Republican Party, she was previously the Mississippi Commissioner of Agriculture and Commerce and a member of the Mississippi State Senate.
The 2014 United States Senate election in Mississippi was held on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of the United States Senate. Incumbent Republican Senator Thad Cochran, first elected in 1978, ran for re-election to a seventh term. Primary elections were held on June 3, 2014.
The 2018 United States Senate elections were held on November 6, 2018. Among the 100 seats, the 33 of Class 1 were contested in regular elections while 2 others were contested in special elections due to Senate vacancies in Minnesota and Mississippi. The regular election winners were elected to 6-year terms running from January 3, 2019, to January 3, 2025. Senate Democrats had 26 seats up for election, while Senate Republicans had 9 seats up for election.
The Senate Conservatives Fund (SCF) is a United States political action committee (PAC) that supports conservative Republican Party candidates in primaries and general elections. The SCF primarily focuses on supporting United States Senate candidates. The PAC was founded by then-U.S. Senator Jim DeMint of South Carolina in 2008.
A general election was held in the U.S. state of Mississippi on November 3, 2015. All of Mississippi's executive officers were up for election. Primary elections were held on August 4, 2015, with primary runoffs to be held on August 25, 2015 if no candidate received a majority in the primary. The filing deadline for primary ballot access was February 27.
The 2018 Minnesota gubernatorial election took place on November 6, to elect the 41st Governor of Minnesota as incumbent Democratic governor Mark Dayton chose not to run for re-election for a third term. The Democratic nominee was congressman Tim Walz from Minnesota's 1st congressional district while the Republicans nominated Hennepin County commissioner Jeff Johnson. The Independence Party of Minnesota didn't field a candidate for the first time since 1994. Going into the election the polls showed Walz ahead and the race was characterized as lean or likely DFL.
The 2018 United States Senate election in Indiana took place on November 6, 2018, along with other elections to the United States Senate and House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic Senator Joe Donnelly lost re-election to a second term to Republican Mike Braun by a 6% margin. This was the second consecutive election for this seat where the incumbent was defeated and/or the seat flipped parties.
The 2018 United States Senate election in Mississippi took place on November 6, 2018, in order to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Mississippi. Incumbent Republican Roger Wicker was re-elected to a second full term, defeating his Democratic challenger, David Baria.
The 2018 United States Senate election in Virginia took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the Commonwealth of Virginia, concurrently with other elections to the U.S. Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic Senator Tim Kaine, who had been his party's nominee for vice president two years earlier, was re-elected to a second term in office, winning this seat by the largest margin since 1988. This was the first election since 1994 that anyone had been re-elected to this seat.
The 2020 United States Senate election in Mississippi was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Mississippi, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
The 2019 Mississippi gubernatorial election took place on November 5, 2019, to choose the next Governor of Mississippi. Incumbent Governor Phil Bryant was ineligible to run for a third term due to term limits. The Democratic Party nominated incumbent Attorney General Jim Hood, the only Democrat holding statewide office in Mississippi; the Republican Party nominated incumbent Lieutenant Governor Tate Reeves. In the general election, Reeves defeated Hood by a margin of 5.08%, with Reeves significantly underperforming Trump who won the state by 17 points, 3 years prior.
The 2022 United States Senate election in Utah was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Utah. Incumbent senator Mike Lee, who was first elected in 2010, won re-election to a third term, defeating Evan McMullin, an independent candidate who was endorsed by the Utah Democratic Party.
The 2024 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Pennsylvania. Primary elections will take place on April 23, 2024. Incumbent three-term Democratic Senator Bob Casey Jr. announced his intention to run for a fourth term on April 10, 2023.
The 2026 United States Senate elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with 33 of the 100 seats in the Senate being contested in regular elections, the winners of which will serve six-year terms in the United States Congress from January 3, 2027, to January 3, 2033. Senators are divided into three groups, or classes, whose terms are staggered so that a different class is elected every two years. Class 2 senators were last elected in 2020, and will be up for election again in 2032.
The 2023 Mississippi lieutenant gubernatorial election took place on November 7, 2023, to elect the lieutenant governor of Mississippi. Incumbent Republican Lieutenant Governor Delbert Hosemann won re-election to a second term in office, significantly outperforming Republican Governor Tate Reeves in the concurrent governor election.
The 2024 Mississippi Republican presidential primary was held on March 12, 2024, as part of the Republican Party primaries for the 2024 presidential election. 40 delegates to the 2024 Republican National Convention will be allocated on a winner-take-most basis. The contest was held alongside primaries in Georgia, Hawaii, and Washington.
The National Rifle Association Political Victory Fund (NRA-PVF) announced on Monday its endorsement of Cindy Hyde-Smith to represent Mississippi in the U.S. Senate.
If Senator Chris McDaniel chooses to run for U.S. Senate, he will have our support and the support of these state and local leaders, along with many of their grassroots organizations... We are ready to hit the ground running to elect Chris McDaniel.
In 2014, the common folks of Mississippi made the very definite statement that we are not being heard and those in power have no intention of hearing us... One person, Chris McDaniel, had the courage to say enough is enough. We almost got it done and common people all over the country recognized what we nearly accomplished. We support Chris McDaniel's efforts to reestablish governance by the consent of the governed.
Year after year, our Senators and Congressmen rank so low on most conservative scorecards. It's time we elect a Senator who truly represents Mississippi's conservative constituency.