2018 Alaska gubernatorial election

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2018 Alaska gubernatorial election
Flag of Alaska.svg
←  2014 November 6, 2018 2022  →
Turnout49.8%
  Senator Mike Dunleavy.jpg Mark Begich, official portrait, 112th Congress (cropped2).jpg
Nominee Mike Dunleavy Mark Begich
Party Republican Democratic
Running mate Kevin Meyer Debra Call
Popular vote145,631125,739
Percentage51.44%44.41%
2018 Alaska gubernatorial election results by State House district.svg
Alaska Governor 2018 2.svg
AKGov2018.svg
Dunleavy:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Begich:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tie:     40–50%
Governor before election

Bill Walker
Independent

Elected Governor

Mike Dunleavy
Republican

The 2018 Alaska gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the governor and lieutenant governor of Alaska. In the primaries for recognized political parties, candidates for governor and lieutenant governor run separately. The winners of each respective primary for governor and lieutenant governor then become a joint ticket in the general election for their political party. Incumbent independent governor Bill Walker was running for re-election in what was originally a three-way race between Walker, Republican former state senator Mike Dunleavy, and Democratic nominee Mark Begich, a former U.S. Senator. However, Walker dropped out on October 19, 2018, and endorsed Begich. In spite of Walker dropping out, Dunleavy defeated Begich in what would become the only gubernatorial gain by a Republican candidate in 2018. As of 2024, this was the last time the Governor’s office in Alaska changed partisan control. Walker later unsuccessfully ran for Governor of Alaska in 2022.

Contents

Democratic–Libertarian–Independence primary

Candidates from the Alaska Democratic Party, Alaska Libertarian Party and Alaskan Independence Party appear on the same ballot, with the highest-placed candidate from each party receiving that party's nomination.[ clarification needed ] In October 2017 the AKDP sued for the right to allow non-Democrats to compete for and win the Democratic nomination, which was ultimately decided in their favor in April 2018. [1] This move was widely thought to benefit incumbent Gov. Bill Walker, to foreclose the possibility of a Democratic nominee splitting the vote with Walker against a Republican nominee. However, with the entry of former senator Mark Begich into the race, Walker withdrew from the Democratic primary and forged ahead with a fully independent bid for reelection. [2]

Governor

Declared

  • Mark Begich (Democratic), former U.S. Senator [3] [4]
  • William S. "Billy" Toien (Libertarian), Libertarian candidate for Alaska Governor in 2010 [5]

Polling

Hypothetical polling
with Mark Begich
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Mark
Begich		Les
Gara		Chris
Tuck		Bill
Wielechowski		Undecided
Harstad Strategic Research March 22 – April 2, 2017205± 2.2%42%15%3%8%32%
–25%5%19%51%
49%–5%12%34%
43%15%–8%34%
44%19%4%–32%

Endorsements

Results

Results by state house district: .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} Begich--80-90% Begich--70-80% Begich--60-70% 2018 AK gubernatorial ADL primary.svg
Results by state house district:
  Begich—80–90%
  Begich—70–80%
  Begich—60–70%
Democratic–Libertarian–Independence primary results [6]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Mark Begich 33,451 85.3
Libertarian William Toien 5,790 14.8
Total votes39,241 100.0

Lieutenant governor

Declared

  • Debra Call (Democratic), Cook Inlet Tribal Council Board of Directors Representative [7] [8]

Withdrawn

Results

Results by state house district: Call--80-90% Call--70-80% Call--60-70% 2018 AK Lt. gubernatorial ADL primary.svg
Results by state house district:
  Call—80–90%
  Call—70–80%
  Call—60–70%
Democratic–Libertarian–Independence primary results [6]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Debra Call 34,291 100.0
Total votes34,291 100.0

Republican primary

Governor

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

  • Dorian Colbry
  • Thomas A. "Tom" Gordon [5]
  • Gerald Heikes, perennial candidate
  • Merica Hlatcu
  • Michael Sheldon
  • Mead Treadwell, former lieutenant governor [10]

[11]

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Mike
Dunleavy		Scott
Hawkins		Mead
Treadwell		OtherUndecided
Dittman Research (R-Dunleavy for Alaska) June 5–7, 2018400± 4.9%46%7%19%3%25%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		John
Binkley		Mike
Dunleavy		Peter
Miccici		Joe
Miller		Bill
Walker		OtherUndecided
Harstad Strategic Research March 22 – April 2, 2017281± 2.2%7%6%4%25%19%3% [20] 36%
9%8%6%29%–4% [21] 46%
8%10%5%–25%4% [21] 48%
–––33%21%–46%

Results

Results by state house district: Dunleavy--80-90% Dunleavy--70-80% Dunleavy--60-70% Dunleavy--50-60% Dunleavy--40-50% Dunleavy--30-40% Treadwell--40-50% 2018 AK gubernatorial Republican primary.svg
Results by state house district:
  Dunleavy—80–90%
  Dunleavy—70–80%
  Dunleavy—60–70%
  Dunleavy—50–60%
  Dunleavy—40–50%
  Dunleavy—30–40%
  Treadwell—40–50%
Republican primary results [6]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Mike Dunleavy 43,802 61.5
Republican Mead Treadwell22,78032.0
Republican Michael Sheldon1,6402.3
Republican Merica Hlatcu1,0641.5
Republican Thomas Gordon8841.4
Republican Gerald Heikes4990.7
Republican Darin Colbry4160.6
Total votes71,195 100.0

Lieutenant governor

Declared

Declined

Results

Results by state house district: Meyer--50-60% Meyer--40-50% Meyer--30-40% Meyer--<30% Grunwald--<30% Grunwald--30-40% Grunwald--40-50% Stevens--<30% Stevens--50-60% Jackson--<30% 2018 AK Lt. Gubernatorial Republican primary.svg
Results by state house district:
  Meyer—50–60%
  Meyer—40–50%
  Meyer—30–40%
  Meyer—<30%
  Grunwald—<30%
  Grunwald—30–40%
  Grunwald—40–50%
  Stevens—<30%
  Stevens—50–60%
  Jackson—<30%
Republican primary results [6]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Kevin Meyer 23,838 35.8
Republican Edie Grunwald18,09727.1
Republican Gary Stevens8,12312.2
Republican Lynn Gattis6,15610.4
Republican Sharon Jackson5,3948.1
Republican Stephen Wright4,3216.5
Total votes66,671 100.0

Independents

Governor

Withdrew

Lieutenant governor

Withdrew

General election

Campaign

Independent candidate and incumbent governor Bill Walker announced on October 19 that he was suspending his campaign and endorsing Mark Begich, three days after Walker's running mate and incumbent lieutenant governor Byron Mallott resigned from office (and amid low polling numbers just three weeks before election day). [40] [41] However, Walker and Mallott still remained on the ballot as the deadline to withdraw was on September 4. [42]

Debates

DatesLocationDunleavyBegichLink
October 25, 2018 Anchorage, Alaska ParticipantParticipant Full debate - C-SPAN

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [43] Lean R (flip)October 26, 2018
The Washington Post [44] TossupNovember 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight [45] Lean R (flip)November 5, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report [46] Tilt R (flip)November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball [47] Lean R (flip)November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics [48] TossupNovember 4, 2018
Daily Kos [49] Lean R (flip)November 5, 2018
Fox News [50] [lower-alpha 1] TossupNovember 5, 2018
Politico [51] Lean R (flip)November 5, 2018
Governing [52] TossupNovember 5, 2018
Notes
  1. ↑ The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Endorsements

Mark Begich (D)
Statewide and local politicians
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations
Mike Dunleavy (R)
U.S. executive branch officials
Federal politicians
State and local politicians
Individuals
Organizations
Alaska Native Corporation
Bill Walker (I) (withdrew) (endorsed Begich)
Organizations

Polling

with Bill Walker (campaign suspended), Mike Dunleavy, and Mark Begich
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Bill
Walker (I)		Mike
Dunleavy (R)		Mark
Begich (D)		Billy
Toien (L)		OtherUndecided
Alaska Survey Research October 26–29, 2018500± 4.4%8%43%42%3%–4%
Alaska Survey Research October 19–22, 2018500± 4.4%5%48%44%––3%
Alaska Survey Research October 12–14, 2018500± 4.4%27%43%26%––4%
Public Policy Polling (D) October 11–12, 2018645–24%43%23%––9%
Alaska Survey Research October 1–6, 2018500± 4.4%27%47%23%––4%
Alaska Survey Research September 21–25, 2018500± 4.4%23%44%29%––4%
Harstad Strategic Research August 13–16, 2018602± 4.0%26%36%24%–2%12%
Patinkin Research Strategies (I-Walker) June 22–28, 2018800± 3.4%28%36%22%––15%
Harstad Strategic Research (D) June 21–26, 2018602± 4.0%28%32%28%––12%
Alaska Survey Research June 15–21, 2018654± 3.8%23%38%33%––6%
with Mark Begich and Mike Dunleavy
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Mark
Begich (D)		Mike
Dunleavy (R)		Undecided
Alaska Survey Research October 12–14, 2018500± 4.4%45%52%4%
Alaska Survey Research October 1–6, 2018500± 4.4%41%55%5%
Alaska Survey Research September 21–25, 2018500± 4.4%47%50%3%
Harstad Strategic Research August 13–16, 2018602± 4.0%46%44%–
Harstad Strategic Research (D) June 21–26, 2018602± 4.0%50%41%9%
Alaska Survey Research March 25–29, 2018761± 3.6%53%42%5%
Hypothetical polling
with Bill Walker and Mike Dunleavy
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Bill
Walker (I)		Mike
Dunleavy (R)		Undecided
Alaska Survey Research October 12–14, 2018500± 4.4%45%52%2%
Alaska Survey Research October 1–6, 2018500± 4.4%43%53%4%
Alaska Survey Research September 21–25, 2018500± 4.4%41%54%5%
Harstad Strategic Research August 13–16, 2018602± 4.0%47%43%–
Harstad Strategic Research (D) June 21–26, 2018602± 4.0%49%40%11%
Alaska Survey Research March 25–29, 2018761± 3.6%51%44%5%
Dittman Research (R-Dunleavy for Alaska) February 26 – March 4, 2018800± 3.4%41%47%12%
Patinkin Research Strategies (I-Walker) February 20–22, 2018600± 4.0%36%33%31%
with Bill Walker and Mark Begich
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Bill
Walker (I)		Mark
Begich (D)		Undecided
Alaska Survey Research October 12–14, 2018500± 4.4%43%42%16%
Alaska Survey Research October 1–6, 2018500± 4.4%42%41%18%
Alaska Survey Research September 21–25, 2018500± 4.4%40%46%15%

Results

2018 Alaska gubernatorial election [83]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Mike Dunleavy 145,631 51.44% +5.56%
Democratic Mark Begich 125,73944.41%+44.41%
Independent Bill Walker (incumbent; withdrawn)5,7572.03%−46.07%
Libertarian William Toien5,4021.91%−1.30%
Write-in 6050.21%−0.11%
Total votes283,134 100.00% N/A
Turnout 284,89149.82%
Registered electors 571,851
Republican gain from Independent

Boroughs and census areas that flipped from Independent to Republican

Boroughs and census areas that flipped from Independent to Democratic

Boroughs and census areas that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Notes

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    2. ↑ Bohrer, Becky (June 2, 2018). "Former Sen. Begich to challenge Walker for Alaska governor". Associated Press .
    3. ↑ Herz, Nathaniel (April 30, 2016). "Fear of a Begich bid for governor looms large over Alaska GOP convention". Alaska Dispatch News . Retrieved July 19, 2016.
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    54. ↑ Byrnes, Jesse (October 19, 2018). "Alaska governor Walker suspends reelection campaign". The Hill . Retrieved October 19, 2018.
    55. ↑ Walker, Rhiannon (September 18, 2018). "Former First Lady Bella Hammond endorses Begich". webcenter11.com.
    56. ↑ Beltrami, Vince (October 22, 2018). "Alaska AFL-CIO Endorses Mark Begich for Governor". Alaska AFL–CIO.
    57. ↑ Parker, Tim (October 23, 2018). "NEA-Alaska Endorses Mark Begich for Governor". NEA-Alaska Political Action Committee on Education.
    58. ↑ Cler, Jessica (July 27, 2018). "Planned Parenthood Votes Endorses Mark Begich for Governor of Alaska". www.plannedparenthoodaction.org. Planned Parenthood Votes Northwest and Hawaii.
    59. ↑ "Mark Begich for Governor - The Alaska Center". The Alaska Center.
    60. ↑ "Alaskans Together for Equality Endorses Mark Begich for Governor". Alaskans Together For Equality. August 24, 2018.
    61. ↑ Chris Klint (September 5, 2018). "APD's union backs Begich for governor". KTVA.
    62. ↑ Donald J. Trump. ".@MikeDunleavyGov will make a fantastic Governor of Alaska. Mike is for Energy and Jobs, is tough on Crime, loves our Vets and our Great Second Amendment. Mike has my Complete and Total Endorsement!". Twitter.
    63. 1 2 "Congressman Don Young & Senator Dan Sullivan Support Mike Dunleavy as Alaska's next Governor" (PDF). Alaskans for Dunleavy. October 22, 2018. Archived from the original (PDF) on October 26, 2018. Retrieved October 26, 2018.
    64. ↑ Brooks, James (October 23, 2018). "After Walker quits, governor race now 'down to the wire'". Juneau Empire .
    65. ↑ Kitchenman, Andrew (July 18, 2018). "Parnell endorses Dunleavy for governor". KTOO.
    66. ↑ "Mead Treadwell Endorses Mike Dunleavy for Governor". Alaskans for Dunleavy. October 4, 2018. Archived from the original on October 26, 2018. Retrieved October 26, 2018.
    67. ↑ Craig Richards (November 5, 2018). "Opinion: Begich would tax, Dunleavy, cut. Whoever wins will have to act fast". Juneau Empire .
    68. ↑ Mike Dunleavy for Governor. "Thrilled to have the endorsement of my colleague, Senator MacKinnon. Thank you Anna for your support!". Facebook.
    69. ↑ Suzanne Downing (May 16, 2018). "Dunleavy signs three as state campaign co-chairs". Must Read Alaska.
    70. ↑ Suzanne Downing (March 5, 2018). "Dunleavy gets a big endorsement from …". Must Read Alaska.
    71. ↑ Mike Dunleavy for Governor. "I am honored to receive the endorsement of General Joe Ralston. He has been trusted with leading the Alaskan Command, NATO, and serving on the Joint Chiefs. His trust in me is humbling and inspiring". Facebook.
    72. ↑ Suzanne Downing (November 2, 2018). "Mao Tosi throws support to Dunleavy". Must Read Alaska.
    73. ↑ Mike Dunleavy for Governor. "Many of us live in Alaska for the unmatched sporting opportunities. I'm proud to earn the endorsement of the Sportsmen's Conservation Alliance, which works to preserve Alaska's fishing, hunting and trapping outdoor heritage traditions". Facebook.
    74. ↑ Mike Dunleavy for Governor. "The Alaska Outdoor Council works tirelessly for the preservation of outdoor pursuits in Alaska, and conservation of the habitats upon which they depend. I am proud to receive their endorsement in the primary". Facebook.
    75. ↑ Kortnie Horazdovsky (October 8, 2018). "State public safety union endorses Dunleavy, Anchorage officers endorse Begich". KTUU.com.
    76. ↑ Suzanne Downing (October 31, 2018). "Alaska Forestry Association endorses Dunleavy". Must Read Alaska. Archived from the original on November 1, 2018.
    77. ↑ "NRA Endorses Mike Dunleavy for Governor" (PDF). Alaskans for Dunleavy. September 26, 2018. Archived from the original (PDF) on October 14, 2018. Retrieved October 13, 2018.
    78. ↑ Anna Rose MacArthur (October 23, 2018). "Calista Switches Endorsement To Dunleavy After Walker Drops Out Of Governor's Race". KYUK. Archived from the original on October 24, 2018.
    79. ↑ "Arctic Slope Regional Corporation Endorses Mike Dunleavy for Governor" (PDF). Alaskans for Dunleavy. October 26, 2018. Archived from the original (PDF) on October 31, 2018. Retrieved October 30, 2018.
    80. ↑ "Centrist Project endorses Gov. Bill Walker (I-AK)" . Retrieved May 22, 2018.
    81. ↑ Zak, Annie (August 25, 2018). "Alaska AFL-CIO endorses Gov. Walker for re-election". Anchorage Daily News .
    82. ↑ Zak, Annie (August 27, 2018). "NEA-Alaska endorses Walker for re-election". Anchorage Daily News .
    83. ↑ "2018 General Elections. Official results". elections.alaska.gov. Retrieved February 19, 2023.
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