2018 Alaska gubernatorial election

For related races, see 2018 United States gubernatorial elections.

2018 Alaska gubernatorial election

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Turnout	49.8%
Nominee Mike Dunleavy Mark Begich Party Republican Democratic Running mate Kevin Meyer Debra Call Popular vote 145,631 125,739 Percentage 51.44% 44.41%
Borough and census area results State house district results Precinct results Dunleavy:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90% Begich:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90% Tie:     40–50%
Governor before election Bill Walker Independent Elected Governor Mike Dunleavy Republican

The 2018 Alaska gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the governor and lieutenant governor of Alaska. In the primaries for recognized political parties, candidates for governor and lieutenant governor run separately. The winners of each respective primary for governor and lieutenant governor then become a joint ticket in the general election for their political party. Incumbent Independent governor Bill Walker was seeking re-election in what was originally a three-way race between Walker, Republican former Alaska state senator Mike Dunleavy, and Democratic former Alaska U.S. Senator Mark Begich. Despite Walker dropping out on October 19, 2018, and endorsing Begich, Dunleavy won in what was the only gubernatorial gain by a Republican candidate in 2018. As of 2024, this was the last time the Governor's office in Alaska changed partisan control. Walker later unsuccessfully ran for Governor of Alaska in 2022.

Independents

Governor

Withdrew

• Bill Walker (Independent), incumbent governor ^{[1] [2] [3] [4]}

Lieutenant governor

Withdrew

• Byron Mallott (Democratic), incumbent lieutenant governor until October 16 ^{[5] [1] [6]}
• Valerie Davidson (Independent), incumbent lieutenant governor since October 16 ^[7]

Democratic–Libertarian–Independence primary

Candidates from the Alaska Democratic Party, Alaska Libertarian Party and Alaskan Independence Party appear on the same ballot, with the highest-placed candidate from each party receiving that party's nomination.^{[ clarification needed ]} In October 2017 the AKDP sued for the right to allow non-Democrats to compete for and win the Democratic nomination, which was ultimately decided in their favor in April 2018. ^[8] This move was widely thought to benefit incumbent Gov. Bill Walker, to foreclose the possibility of a Democratic nominee splitting the vote with Walker against a Republican nominee. However, with the entry of former senator Mark Begich into the race, Walker withdrew from the Democratic primary and forged ahead with a fully independent bid for reelection. ^[9]

Governor

Declared

• Mark Begich (Democratic), former U.S. senator ^{[10] [11]}
• William S. "Billy" Toien (Libertarian), Libertarian candidate for Alaska Governor in 2010 ^[12]

Polling

Hypothetical polling

with Mark Begich

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Mark Begich	Les Gara	Chris Tuck	Bill Wielechowski	Undecided
Harstad Strategic Research	March 22 – April 2, 2017	205	± 2.2%	42%	15%	3%	8%	32%
				–	25%	5%	19%	51%
				49%	–	5%	12%	34%
				43%	15%	–	8%	34%
				44%	19%	4%	–	32%

Results

Results by state house district:

  Begich—80–90%

  Begich—70–80%

  Begich—60–70%

Democratic–Libertarian–Independence primary results ^[13]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Mark Begich	33,451	85.3
	Libertarian	William Toien	5,790	14.8
Total votes			39,241	100.0

Lieutenant governor

Declared

• Debra Call (Democratic), Cook Inlet Tribal Council Board of Directors Representative ^{[14] [15]}

Withdrawn

• Edgar Blatchford (Democratic), former mayor of Seward ^{[14] [15]}

Results

Results by state house district:

  Call—80–90%

  Call—70–80%

  Call—60–70%

Democratic–Libertarian–Independence primary results ^[13]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Debra Call	34,291	100.0
Total votes			34,291	100.0

Republican primary

Governor

Nominated

• Mike Dunleavy, educator and former state senator ^[16]

Eliminated in primary

• Dorian Colbry
• Thomas A. "Tom" Gordon ^[12]
• Gerald Heikes, perennial candidate
• Merica Hlatcu
• Michael Sheldon
• Mead Treadwell, former lieutenant governor ^[17]

^[18]

Withdrawn

• Mike Chenault, state representative and former Speaker of the Alaska House of Representatives ^[14]
• Scott Hawkins, businessman ^{[19] [20]}

Declined

• Bill Walker, incumbent Independent Governor (running for re-election as an Independent) ^{[21] [11]}
• Robert Gillam, businessman ^{[21] [11]}
• Loren Leman, former lieutenant governor ^[22]
• Anna MacKinnon, state senator ^[21] (endorsed Mike Dunleavy)
• Joe Miller, former magistrate judge and perennial candidate ^[21]
• Sean Parnell, former governor of Alaska ^[21] (endorsed Mike Dunleavy)
• Frank Murkowski, former governor of Alaska and U.S. Senator ^[23]
• Peter Micciche, state senator (running for re-election to state senate) ^[24]
• Dan Sullivan, former mayor of Anchorage and nominee for lieutenant governor in 2014 ^{[25] [21]} (endorsed Mike Dunleavy)
• Ben Stevens, former president of the Alaska State Senate, son of former president pro tempore of the U.S. Senate, Solicitor of the Interior Department & U.S. Attorney Ted Stevens ^[26]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Mike Dunleavy	Scott Hawkins	Mead Treadwell	Other	Undecided
Dittman Research (R-Dunleavy for Alaska)	June 5–7, 2018	400	± 4.9%	46%	7%	19%	3%	25%

Hypothetical polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	John Binkley	Mike Dunleavy	Peter Miccici	Joe Miller	Bill Walker	Other	Undecided
Harstad Strategic Research	March 22 – April 2, 2017	281	± 2.2%	7%	6%	4%	25%	19%	3% [27]	36%
				9%	8%	6%	29%	–	4% [28]	46%
				8%	10%	5%	–	25%	4% [28]	48%
				–	–	–	33%	21%	–	46%

Results

Results by state house district:

  Dunleavy—80–90%

  Dunleavy—70–80%

  Dunleavy—60–70%

  Dunleavy—50–60%

  Dunleavy—40–50%

  Dunleavy—30–40%

  Treadwell—40–50%

Republican primary results ^[13]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Mike Dunleavy	43,802	61.5
	Republican	Mead Treadwell	22,780	32.0
	Republican	Michael Sheldon	1,640	2.3
	Republican	Merica Hlatcu	1,064	1.5
	Republican	Thomas Gordon	884	1.4
	Republican	Gerald Heikes	499	0.7
	Republican	Darin Colbry	416	0.6
Total votes			71,195	100.0

Lieutenant governor

Declared

• Lynn Gattis, former state representative and candidate for the state senate in 2016 ^[29]
• Edie Grunwald, retired air force colonel and former human resources director for the Alaska National Guard ^[30]
• Sharon Jackson, activist and former congressional staffer ^[31]
• Kevin Meyer, state senator and former president of the Alaska Senate ^[32]
• Gary Stevens, state senator ^{[33] [34]}
• Stephen Wright, air force veteran ^[35]

Declined

• David Wilson, state senator ^{[36] [37] [38]}
• Glen Thompson, Ketchikan Gateway Borough Assemblyman ^[39]

Results

Results by state house district:

  Meyer—50–60%

  Meyer—40–50%

  Meyer—30–40%

  Meyer—<30%

  Grunwald—<30%

  Grunwald—30–40%

  Grunwald—40–50%

  Stevens—<30%

  Stevens—50–60%

  Jackson—<30%

Republican primary results ^[13]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Kevin Meyer	23,838	35.8
	Republican	Edie Grunwald	18,097	27.1
	Republican	Gary Stevens	8,123	12.2
	Republican	Lynn Gattis	6,156	10.4
	Republican	Sharon Jackson	5,394	8.1
	Republican	Stephen Wright	4,321	6.5
Total votes			66,671	100.0

General election

Campaign

Independent candidate and incumbent governor Bill Walker announced on October 19 that he was suspending his campaign and endorsing Mark Begich, three days after Walker's running mate and incumbent lieutenant governor Byron Mallott resigned from office (and amid low polling numbers just three weeks before election day). ^{[40] [41]} However, Walker and Mallott still remained on the ballot as the deadline to withdraw was on September 4. ^[42]

Debates

Dates	Location	Dunleavy	Begich	Link
October 25, 2018	Anchorage, Alaska	Participant	Participant	Full debate - C-SPAN

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report [43]	Lean R (flip)	October 26, 2018
The Washington Post [44]	Tossup	November 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight [45]	Lean R (flip)	November 5, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report [46]	Tilt R (flip)	November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball [47]	Lean R (flip)	November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics [48]	Tossup	November 4, 2018
Daily Kos [49]	Lean R (flip)	November 5, 2018
Fox News [50] [lower-alpha 1]	Tossup	November 5, 2018
Politico [51]	Lean R (flip)	November 5, 2018
Governing [52]	Tossup	November 5, 2018

Notes

1. The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Endorsements

Mark Begich (D)

Statewide and local politicians

• Tony Knowles, former governor of Alaska and former mayor of Anchorage ^[53]
• Bill Walker, incumbent Governor ^[54]

Individuals

• Bella Hammond, former First Lady of Alaska ^[55]

Labor unions

• Alaska AFL–CIO ^[56]
• National Education Association – Alaska Affiliate ^[57]

Organizations

• Planned Parenthood Action Fund ^[58]
• The Alaska Center ^[59]
• Alaskans Together for Equality ^[60]
• Anchorage Police Department Employees Association ^[61]

Mike Dunleavy (R)

U.S. executive branch officials

• Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States ^[62]

Federal politicians

• Dan S. Sullivan, U.S. senator ^[63]
• Lisa Murkowski, U.S. senator ^[64]
• Don Young, U.S. congressman ^[63]

State and local politicians

• Sean Parnell, former Governor of Alaska ^[65]
• Mead Treadwell, former lieutenant governor of Alaska ^[66]
• Craig Richards, former Alaska attorney general ^[67]
• Anna MacKinnon, state senator ^[68]
• Dick Randolph, former state representative ^[69]
• Dan Sullivan, former Anchorage mayor ^[70]

Individuals

• Joseph Ralston, former vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff ^[71]
• Mao Tosi, former NFL Arizona Cardinals defensive back ^[72]

Organizations

• Sportsmen's Conservation Alliance ^[73]
• Alaska Outdoor Council ^[74]
• Alaska's Public Safety Employees Association ^[75]
• Alaska Forestry Association ^[76]
• National Rifle Association of America ^[77]

Alaska Native Corporation

• Calista Corporation ^[78]
• Arctic Slope Regional Corporation ^[79]

Bill Walker (I) (withdrew) (endorsed Begich)

Organizations

• The Centrist Project ^[80]
• Alaska AFL–CIO ^[81]
• NEA-Alaska ^[82]

Polling

with Bill Walker (campaign suspended), Mike Dunleavy, and Mark Begich

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Bill Walker (I)	Mike Dunleavy (R)	Mark Begich (D)	Billy Toien (L)	Other	Undecided
Alaska Survey Research	October 26–29, 2018	500	± 4.4%	8%	43%	42%	3%	–	4%
Alaska Survey Research	October 19–22, 2018	500	± 4.4%	5%	48%	44%	–	–	3%
Alaska Survey Research	October 12–14, 2018	500	± 4.4%	27%	43%	26%	–	–	4%
Public Policy Polling (D)	October 11–12, 2018	645	–	24%	43%	23%	–	–	9%
Alaska Survey Research	October 1–6, 2018	500	± 4.4%	27%	47%	23%	–	–	4%
Alaska Survey Research	September 21–25, 2018	500	± 4.4%	23%	44%	29%	–	–	4%
Harstad Strategic Research	August 13–16, 2018	602	± 4.0%	26%	36%	24%	–	2%	12%
Patinkin Research Strategies (I-Walker)	June 22–28, 2018	800	± 3.4%	28%	36%	22%	–	–	15%
Harstad Strategic Research (D)	June 21–26, 2018	602	± 4.0%	28%	32%	28%	–	–	12%
Alaska Survey Research	June 15–21, 2018	654	± 3.8%	23%	38%	33%	–	–	6%

with Mark Begich and Mike Dunleavy

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Mark Begich (D)	Mike Dunleavy (R)	Undecided
Alaska Survey Research	October 12–14, 2018	500	± 4.4%	45%	52%	4%
Alaska Survey Research	October 1–6, 2018	500	± 4.4%	41%	55%	5%
Alaska Survey Research	September 21–25, 2018	500	± 4.4%	47%	50%	3%
Harstad Strategic Research	August 13–16, 2018	602	± 4.0%	46%	44%	–
Harstad Strategic Research (D)	June 21–26, 2018	602	± 4.0%	50%	41%	9%
Alaska Survey Research	March 25–29, 2018	761	± 3.6%	53%	42%	5%

Hypothetical polling

with Bill Walker and Mike Dunleavy

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Bill Walker (I)	Mike Dunleavy (R)	Undecided
Alaska Survey Research	October 12–14, 2018	500	± 4.4%	45%	52%	2%
Alaska Survey Research	October 1–6, 2018	500	± 4.4%	43%	53%	4%
Alaska Survey Research	September 21–25, 2018	500	± 4.4%	41%	54%	5%
Harstad Strategic Research	August 13–16, 2018	602	± 4.0%	47%	43%	–
Harstad Strategic Research (D)	June 21–26, 2018	602	± 4.0%	49%	40%	11%
Alaska Survey Research	March 25–29, 2018	761	± 3.6%	51%	44%	5%
Dittman Research (R-Dunleavy for Alaska)	February 26 – March 4, 2018	800	± 3.4%	41%	47%	12%
Patinkin Research Strategies (I-Walker)	February 20–22, 2018	600	± 4.0%	36%	33%	31%

with Bill Walker and Mark Begich

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Bill Walker (I)	Mark Begich (D)	Undecided
Alaska Survey Research	October 12–14, 2018	500	± 4.4%	43%	42%	16%
Alaska Survey Research	October 1–6, 2018	500	± 4.4%	42%	41%	18%
Alaska Survey Research	September 21–25, 2018	500	± 4.4%	40%	46%	15%

Results

2018 Alaska gubernatorial election ^[83]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Mike Dunleavy	145,631	51.44%	+5.56%
	Democratic	Mark Begich	125,739	44.41%	+44.41%
	Independent	Bill Walker (incumbent; withdrawn)	5,757	2.03%	−46.07%
	Libertarian	William Toien	5,402	1.91%	−1.30%
	Write-in		605	0.21%	−0.11%
Total votes			283,134	100.00%	N/A
Turnout			284,891	49.82%
Registered electors			571,851
	Republican gain from Independent

Boroughs and census areas that flipped from Independent to Republican

• Denali Borough (largest city: Healy)
• Fairbanks North Star (largest city: Fairbanks)
• Petersburg
• Valdez–Cordova Census Area (largest city: Valdez)

Boroughs and census areas that flipped from Independent to Democratic

• Aleutians West Census Area (largest city: Unalaska)
• Anchorage
• Bethel Census Area (largest city: Bethel)
• Kusilvak Census Area (largest city: Hooper Bay)
• Nome Census Area (largest city: Nome)
• Dilingham Census Area (largest city: Dilingham)
• Kodiak Island (largest city: Kodiak Island)
• Lake & Peninsula Borough (largest city: Newhalen)
• North Slope Borough (largest city: Utqiaġvik)
• Northwest Arctic Borough (largest city: Kotzebue)
• Prince of Wales–Hyder Census Area (largest city: Craig)
• Yukon–Koyukuk Census Area (largest city: Fort Yukon)
• Juneau
• Sitka
• Skagway
• Hoonah–Angoon Census Area (largest town: Hoonah)
• Haines Borough (largest census-designated place: Haines)
• Yakutat

Boroughs and census areas that flipped from Republican to Democratic

• Aleutians East Borough (largest city: Akutan)
• Bristol Bay Borough (largest city: Naknek)

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79. "Arctic Slope Regional Corporation Endorses Mike Dunleavy for Governor" (PDF). Alaskans for Dunleavy. October 26, 2018. Archived from the original (PDF) on October 31, 2018. Retrieved October 30, 2018.
80. "Centrist Project endorses Gov. Bill Walker (I-AK)". Archived from the original on October 13, 2017. Retrieved May 22, 2018.
81. Zak, Annie (August 25, 2018). "Alaska AFL-CIO endorses Gov. Walker for re-election". Anchorage Daily News .
82. Zak, Annie (August 27, 2018). "NEA-Alaska endorses Walker for re-election". Anchorage Daily News .
83. "2018 General Elections. Official results". elections.alaska.gov. Retrieved February 19, 2023.^{[ permanent dead link ]}

External links

• Candidates at Vote Smart
• Candidates at Ballotpedia

Official gubernatorial campaign websites

• Mark Begich (D) for Governor
• Mike Dunleavy (R) for Governor

Official lieutenant gubernatorial campaign websites

• Kevin Meyer (R) for Lieutenant Governor

Alaska Division of Elections

• Unofficial Election Results - Nov. 2018