2026 United States Senate election in Alaska

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2026 United States Senate election in Alaska
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November 3, 2026
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Incumbent U.S. senator

Dan Sullivan
Republican



The 2026 United States Senate election in Alaska will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Alaska. A jungle primary election will be held on August 18, 2026, from which the top four candidates will advance to the general election, which will be conducted under ranked-choice voting.

Contents

Incumbent Republican senator Dan Sullivan, who was re-elected in 2020 with 53.9% of the vote, [1] has declared his re-election bid. Mary Peltola, a former U.S. representative from Alaska's at-large congressional district is also running for the seat as a Democrat. [2]

No Democrat has represented Alaska in the Senate since 2015, and Alaska has not voted for a Democrat for president since 1964. Peltola is the only Democrat to have won a statewide election in Alaska since Mark Begich was elected to the U.S. Senate in 2008.

Candidates

Republican Party

Declared

Filed paperwork

  • Fred C. Grauberger, retired motor vehicle operator [6]
  • Richard Benedict "Sieg Heil" Mayers, white supremacist and expelled candidate for IN-01 in 2026 [7]
  • James Micheal Ryan, employee of Kosmos Energy [8]

Withdrawn

  • Christopher Miklos, businessman [9]

Democratic Party

Declared

Green Party

Declared

Independents

Filed paperwork

Primary election

Under Alaska's voting system, all candidates, regardless of party, will run on the same primary ballot. The top four candidates in the primary will advance to the general election, which will be conducted using ranked-choice voting.[ citation needed ]

Background

Incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan announced his run for re-election in early 2025. He was first elected in 2014, defeating Mark Begich, the last Democrat to represent Alaska in the U.S. Senate. He was last re-elected in 2020, prior to the implementation of Alaska's ranked-choice voting system. [3] Facing few obvious swing state targets to regain the Senate majority in 2026, Democrats began looking towards more Republican-leaning states, such as Ohio and Texas, as potential targets. [16] Among these states was Alaska, where Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer heavily courted former U.S. Representative Mary Peltola, the last Democrat to win any statewide election in Alaska, to run for Senate. [17] Peltola herself mulled between running for Senate and running for governor, but she ultimately decided to enter the Senate race in early 2026, setting up the race between her and Sullivan. [18] [19]

Campaign

Peltola's entry into the race immediately made the race competitive, according to most predictors. [20] She still faces significant hurdles, such as Sullivan's incumbency and lack of a prominent Republican challenger, the unpopularity of the national Democratic Party in Alaska, and a reduction in cross-party support. Lisa Murkowski, Alaska's other U.S. Senator and a noted moderate Republican, had endorsed Peltola in her 2022 and 2024 bids for U.S. House, but she endorsed Sullivan in this race instead. [21]

Endorsements

Mary Peltola (D)
Executive branch officials
U.S. senators
State legislators
Party officials
Labor unions
Organizations
Dan Sullivan (R)
Executive branch officials
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
State legislators
Labor unions
Organizations

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of December 31, 2025
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Dan Sullivan (R)$7,365,342$2,262,211$5,834,874
Source: Federal Election Commission [36]

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [b] 		Margin
of error		Ann
Diener
(D)		Fred
Grauberger
(R)		Richard
Grayson
(G)		Sid
Hill
(I)		William
Hunt
(D)		Christopher
Miklos
(R)		Mary
Peltola
(D)		James
Ryan
(R)		Dan
Sullivan
(R)		Undecided
Alaska Survey Research [37] March 19–22, 20261,283 (LV)± 3.0%2%1%1%3%1%2%46%3%41%–

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
Inside Elections [38] Lean RJanuary 12, 2026
The Cook Political Report [39] Lean RJanuary 12, 2026
Sabato's Crystal Ball [40] Lean RJanuary 29, 2026
Race To The WH [41] TossupMarch 29, 2026

Polling

Dan Sullivan vs. Mary Peltola

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		Dan
Sullivan		Mary
Peltola		Other/Undecided
[c] 		Margin
Race to the WH [42] August 8, 2025 – March 22, 2026March 29, 202644.7%48.1%7.2%Peltola +3.4%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [b] 		Margin
of error		Dan
Sullivan (R)		Mary
Peltola (D)		OtherUndecided
Alaska Survey Research [37] March 19–22, 20261,590 (LV)± 2.7%44%49%7% [d] –
44%50%6% [e] –
48%52%––
Public Policy Polling (D) [43] [A] January 16–17, 2026611 (V)–47%49%–4%
Alaska Survey Research [45] January 8–11, 20261,988 (LV)± 2.2%46%48%–6%
Data for Progress (D) [46] October 17–23, 2025823 (LV)± 3.0%45%46%5% [f] 4%
Alaska Survey Research [47] October 10–15, 20251,708 (LV)–46%48%–6%
Alaska Survey Research [48] July 29 – August 1, 20251,623 (LV)± 2.5%47%42%–11%
Data for Progress (D) [49] July 21–27, 2025678 (LV)± 4.0%46%45%5% [f] 4%
Alaska Survey Research [50] April 21–25, 20231,261 (LV)–41%44%–15%

Notes

  1. ↑ Lincoln was elected as a Democrat before leaving the party in 2019 and registering as an independent. He continued to caucus with the Democrats for the remainder of his term.
  2. 1 2 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ↑ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  4. ↑ Miklos (R) with 5%; Diener (D) with 2%
  5. ↑ Miklos (R) with 6%
  6. 1 2 "I would rank neither" with 5%

Partisan clients

References

  1. ↑ Axelrod, Tal; Budryk, Zack (November 11, 2020). "Sullivan wins reelection in Alaska, giving Republicans 50 seats in Senate". The Hill . Archived from the original on December 24, 2020. Retrieved May 23, 2024– via MSN.
  2. 1 2 Nichols, Hans (January 12, 2026). "Mary Peltola plunges into Alaska Senate race". Axios. Archived from the original on January 13, 2026. Retrieved January 12, 2026.
  3. 1 2 Downing, Suzanne (March 22, 2025). "Breaking: Sen. Dan Sullivan formally announces his campaign for reelection". Must Read Alaska. Archived from the original on April 18, 2025. Retrieved June 4, 2025.
  4. ↑ Darden, Dustin. "FEC Form 2". FEC.
  5. ↑ Darden, Dustin. "A Healthy Alaska with Liberty and Justice for All".
  6. ↑ "Candidates – Division of Elections". Division of Elections – State of Alaska. December 7, 2021. Archived from the original on February 1, 2026. Retrieved February 16, 2026.
  7. ↑ "Candidates - Division of Elections". Division of Elections - State of Alaska. December 7, 2021. Archived from the original on March 11, 2026. Retrieved April 12, 2026.
  8. ↑ "FEC Form 2 for Report FEC-1913043". docquery.fec.gov. Retrieved February 16, 2026.
  9. ↑ "MIKLOS, CHRISTOPHER – Candidate overview". Federal Election Commission . January 1, 2019. Retrieved May 18, 2025.
  10. ↑ Downing, Suzanne (July 21, 2025). "Democrats have their challenger for Sen. Dan Sullivan – and she works for an Alaska newspaper". Must Read Alaska. Archived from the original on October 7, 2025. Retrieved September 19, 2025.
  11. ↑ Capps, Kris (January 24, 2024). "Top elf 'Santa Bill' wants to be commander in chief". Fairbanks Daily News-Miner. Retrieved February 16, 2026.
  12. ↑ "Candidates – Division of Elections". Division of Elections – State of Alaska. December 7, 2021. Archived from the original on February 1, 2026. Retrieved February 16, 2026.
  13. ↑ Lee Hunt, William (April 22, 2025). "William Lee Hunt for President 2028" (PDF). FEC.gov. Retrieved March 21, 2026.
  14. ↑ Samuels, Iris (October 16, 2025). "Begich and Sullivan maintain fundraising efforts ahead of 2026 elections". Anchorage Daily News. Archived from the original on October 26, 2025. Retrieved October 25, 2025.
  15. ↑ "Alaska Division of Elections, Candidates". October 14, 2025. Archived from the original on November 19, 2024. Retrieved October 25, 2025.
  16. ↑ Neukam, Stephen (August 6, 2025). "Senate Democrats' top remaining targets for the 2026 midterms". Axios. Retrieved February 5, 2026.
  17. ↑ Nichols, Hans; Neukam, Stephen (August 13, 2025). "Scoop: Schumer courts Peltola for Alaska Senate race". Axios. Retrieved February 5, 2026.
  18. ↑ Herz, Nathaniel (July 15, 2025). "Dems are 'salivating' over a Peltola bid for Senate, but Alaska governor race could be 'wide open'". Alaska Beacon. Retrieved February 5, 2026.
  19. ↑ Thiessen, Mark (January 12, 2026). "Democrat Mary Peltola, barrier-breaking ex-Alaska congresswoman, is challenging Republican Dan Sullivan in Senate race". PBS News. Retrieved February 5, 2026.
  20. ↑ Kondik, Kyle (January 13, 2026). "Alaska Senate Race Comes Onto the Competitive Board with Peltola's Entry". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved February 5, 2026.
  21. ↑ "Former Rep. Mary Peltola jumps into Alaska Senate race". POLITICO. January 12, 2026. Retrieved February 5, 2026.
  22. 1 2 Courtney, Wil (January 12, 2026). "Peltola Senate challenge draws national battle lines as Murkowski backs Sullivan". Alaska News Source. Archived from the original on January 12, 2026. Retrieved January 13, 2026.
  23. ↑ "Peltola's entrance in Alaska Senate race gives Democrats hope" . Retrieved February 9, 2026.
  24. ↑ "Mary Peltola announces run for U.S. Senate, challenging incumbent Dan Sullivan" . Retrieved February 6, 2026.
  25. 1 2 Brooks, James; Smith, Corinne (January 12, 2026). "Mary Peltola announces run for Alaska U.S. Senate, challenging incumbent Dan Sullivan". Alaska Beacon. Archived from the original on January 13, 2026. Retrieved January 13, 2026.
  26. ↑ "Candidates". Elect Democratic Women.
  27. ↑ Altimari, Daniela (January 12, 2026). "Former Rep. Mary Peltola enters Alaska Senate race in boost to Democrats". Roll Call . Archived from the original on January 12, 2026. Retrieved January 12, 2026.
  28. ↑ "End Citizens United Endorses Mary Peltola for Alaska Senate". endcitizensunited.org. April 1, 2026. Retrieved April 2, 2026.
  29. ↑ "Jewish Dems Endorsed Candidates". Jewish Democratic Council of America.
  30. ↑ @ProgressiveVic (January 18, 2026). "ENDORSEMENT ALERT! Here is our first 18 endorsements for this year's 2026 midterms" (Tweet). Retrieved January 18, 2026– via X (formerly Twitter).
  31. ↑ "Trump endorses Alaska US Senator Dan Sullivan". Archived from the original on October 2, 2025. Retrieved September 13, 2025.
  32. 1 2 3 4 "Alaska Native Leaders endorse Senator Dan Sullivan's Re-Election". The Delta Discovery. March 27, 2026. Retrieved March 27, 2026.
  33. ↑ Ruskin, Liz (January 12, 2026). "Mary Peltola enters Alaska U.S. Senate race". Alaska Public Media. Archived from the original on January 12, 2026. Retrieved January 12, 2026.
  34. ↑ "Begich exchanges endorsements with Sullivan who faces a familiar foe". Alaska Watchman. January 15, 2026. Retrieved January 16, 2026.
  35. ↑ "22 Republicans endorsed by LGBT organization: Full list of names". Newsweek. February 3, 2026. Retrieved February 4, 2026.
  36. ↑ "2026 Election United States Senate – Alaska". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission. Archived from the original on May 15, 2025. Retrieved July 17, 2025.
  37. 1 2 "2026 US Senate Political Tracking Survey" (PDF). Alaska Survey Research. March 29, 2026. Retrieved March 30, 2026.
  38. ↑ Gonzales, Nathan L. "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. Archived from the original on January 20, 2021. Retrieved January 12, 2026.
  39. ↑ "2026 CPR Senate Race ratings". Cook Political Report. Archived from the original on November 30, 2018. Retrieved January 12, 2026.
  40. ↑ "2026 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Archived from the original on February 15, 2025. Retrieved January 12, 2026.
  41. ↑ "2026 Senate Forecast". Race to the WH. Archived from the original on March 15, 2025. Retrieved March 19, 2025.
  42. ↑ "2026 Senate Polling Average". Race to the WH. Retrieved February 8, 2026.
  43. ↑ "Alaska DSCC Jan 26 1 – Questionnaire". Public Policy Polling. January 21, 2026. Retrieved January 22, 2026– via Politico .
  44. ↑ Stanton, Andrew (January 21, 2026). "Mary Peltola chances of beating Dan Sullivan to flip Alaska from GOP—Polls". Newsweek. Retrieved January 21, 2026. The poll surveyed 611 Alaska voters from January 16–17, 2026. Politico reported it was commissioned by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC), an organization that supports Democratic Senate candidates across the country.
  45. ↑ Moore, Ivan. "2025/26 Winter Alaska Survey Report" (PDF). Alaska Survey Research. Archived (PDF) from the original on January 14, 2026. Retrieved January 14, 2026.
  46. ↑ Ruskin, Liz (October 31, 2025). "New poll shows Peltola neck-and-neck with Sullivan, if she were to run for U.S. Senate". Alaska Public Media . Archived from the original on November 1, 2025. Retrieved November 1, 2025.
  47. ↑ Sabbatini, Mark (October 22, 2025). "Poll: Peltola ahead of Sullivan in race that could decide control of US Senate". Juneau Independent. Archived from the original on November 13, 2025. Retrieved October 23, 2025.
  48. ↑ "2025 Summer Alaska Survey Report". Alaska Survey Research. August 22, 2025. Archived from the original on December 9, 2025. Retrieved August 25, 2025.
  49. ↑ "Mary Peltola Would Be Front-Runner for Alaska Governor". Data for Progress . August 8, 2025. Archived from the original on August 8, 2025. Retrieved August 8, 2025.
  50. ↑ Downing, Suzanne (May 2, 2023). "New poll says Rep. Mary Peltola could take Sen. Dan Sullivan in 2026". Must Read Alaska. Archived from the original on June 28, 2025. Retrieved May 8, 2025.
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