2026 United States House of Representatives election ratings

2026 United States House of Representatives election ratings

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The 2026 United States House of Representatives elections will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect representatives from all 435 congressional districts across each of the 50 U.S. states. Five of the six non-voting delegates from the District of Columbia and the inhabited U.S. territories will also be elected (Puerto Rico's delegate, the Resident Commissioner, serves four year terms and was last elected in 2024). Numerous federal, state, and local elections, including the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, will also be held on this date.

Election ratings

Latest published ratings for competitive seats

Several sites and individuals publish ratings of competitive seats. The seats listed below are considered competitive (not "safe" or "solid") by at least one of the rating groups. These ratings are based upon factors such as the strength of the incumbent (if the incumbent is running for re-election), the strength of the candidates, and the partisan history of the district (the Cook Partisan Voting Index (CPVI) is one example of this metric). Each rating describes the likelihood of a given outcome in the election.

In total there are 435 seats in the House of Representatives, 218 are needed for a majority, while 290 seats are needed for a two-thirds supermajority (if all members are sitting and voting).

Most election ratings use:

• Tossup: no advantage
• Tilt (sometimes used): very slight advantage
• Lean: significant, but not overwhelming advantage
• Likely: strong, but not certain advantage
• Safe or Solid: outcome is nearly certain

The following are the latest published ratings for competitive seats.

District	CPVI [1]	Incumbent	Last result [2]	Cook Nov. 11, 2025 [3]	IE Nov. 11, 2025 [4]	Sabato Nov. 11, 2025 [5]	WH Nov. 11, 2025 [6]
Alaska at-large	R+6	Nick Begich III	51.3% R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Lean R
Arizona 1	R+1	David Schweikert (retiring)	51.9% R	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup
Arizona 2	R+7	Eli Crane	54.5% R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R
Arizona 5	R+10	Andy Biggs (retiring)	60.4% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Likely R
Arizona 6	EVEN	Juan Ciscomani	50.0% R	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup
Arizona 8	R+8	Abe Hamadeh	56.5% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Likely R
California 1	TBD [a]	Doug LaMalfa	65.3% R	Solid D (flip)	Solid D (flip)	Likely D (flip)	Likely D (flip)
California 3	TBD [a]	Kevin Kiley (R) and Ami Bera (D)	55.5% R; 57.6% D	Solid D (flip)	Solid D (flip)	Likely D (flip)	Likely D (flip)
California 6	TBD [a]	New seat	–	Solid D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D
California 9	TBD [a]	Josh Harder	51.8% D	Solid D	Solid D	Likely D	Likely D
California 13	TBD [a]	Adam Gray	50.0% D	Tossup	Tilt D	Lean D	Lean D
California 21	TBD [a]	Jim Costa	52.6% D	Likely D	Lean D	Likely D	Likely D
California 22	TBD [a]	David Valadao	53.4% R	Tossup	Tilt R	Tossup	Tossup
California 25	TBD [a]	Raul Ruiz	56.3% D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D
California 27	TBD [a]	George Whitesides	51.3% D	Solid D	Solid D	Likely D	Safe D
California 40	TBD [a]	Young Kim and Ken Calvert	55.3% R; 51.7% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Likely R
California 45	TBD [a]	Derek Tran	50.1% D	Lean D	Tilt D	Lean D	Likely D
California 47	TBD [a]	Dave Min	51.4% D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D
California 48	TBD [a]	Darrell Issa	59.3% R	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Tilt D (flip)
California 49	TBD [a]	Mike Levin	52.2% D	Solid D	Solid D	Likely D	Safe D
Colorado 3	R+5	Jeff Hurd	50.8% R	Likely R	Solid R	Likely R	Lean R
Colorado 4	R+9	Lauren Boebert	53.6% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Lean R
Colorado 5	R+5	Jeff Crank	54.7% R	Solid R	Likely R	Likely R	Lean R
Colorado 8	EVEN	Gabe Evans	49.0% R	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup
Connecticut 5	D+3	Jahana Hayes	53.4% D	Likely D	Solid D	Likely D	Likely D
Florida 4	R+5	Aaron Bean	57.3% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Likely R
Florida 7	R+5	Cory Mills	56.5% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Likely R
Florida 9	D+4	Darren Soto	55.1% D	Solid D	Solid D	Likely D	Likely D
Florida 13	R+5	Anna Paulina Luna	54.8% R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R
Florida 15	R+5	Laurel Lee	56.2% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Likely R
Florida 23	D+2	Jared Moskowitz	52.4% D	Lean D	Lean D	Lean D	Lean D
Georgia 1	R+8	Buddy Carter (retiring)	62.0% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Likely R
Georgia 10	R+11	Mike Collins (retiring)	63.1% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Likely R
Illinois 8	D+5	Raja Krishnamoorthi (retiring)	57.1% D	Solid D	Solid D	Safe D	Likely D
Illinois 17	D+3	Eric Sorensen	54.4% D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D
Indiana 1	D+1	Frank J. Mrvan	53.4% D	Likely D	Lean D	Lean D	Lean D
Iowa 1	R+4	Mariannette Miller-Meeks	50.1% R	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup
Iowa 2	R+4	Ashley Hinson (retiring)	57.1% R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Tilt R
Iowa 3	R+2	Zach Nunn	51.9% R	Lean R	Lean R	Tossup	Tossup
Kansas 3	D+2	Sharice Davids	53.4% D	Solid D	Solid D	Likely D	Likely D
Kentucky 6	R+7	Andy Barr (retiring)	63.0% R	Solid R	Solid R	Likely R	Lean R
Maine 2	R+4	Jared Golden (retiring)	50.3% D	Likely R (flip)	Likely R (flip)	Lean R (flip)	Lean R (flip)
Maryland 6	D+3	April McClain Delaney	53.1% D	Solid D	Solid D	Likely D	Likely D
Michigan 3	D+4	Hillary Scholten	53.7% D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D
Michigan 4	R+3	Bill Huizenga	55.1% R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Lean R
Michigan 7	EVEN	Tom Barrett	50.3% R	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup
Michigan 8	R+1	Kristen McDonald Rivet	51.2% D	Lean D	Tilt D	Lean D	Lean D
Michigan 10	R+3	John James (retiring)	51.1% R	Lean R	Tilt R	Tossup	Tossup
Minnesota 1	R+6	Brad Finstad	58.6% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Likely R
Minnesota 2	D+3	Angie Craig (retiring)	55.6% D	Likely D	Lean D	Lean D	Lean D
Minnesota 8	R+7	Pete Stauber	58.0% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Likely R
Missouri 2	TBD [a]	Ann Wagner	54.5% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Likely R
Missouri 5	TBD [a]	Emanuel Cleaver	60.2% D	Solid D [b]	Solid R (flip)	Safe R (flip)	Likely R (flip)
Montana 1	R+5	Ryan Zinke	52.3% R	Likely R	Solid R	Likely R	Lean R
Nebraska 1	R+6	Mike Flood	60.1% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Likely R
Nebraska 2	D+3	Don Bacon (retiring)	50.9% R	Lean D (flip)	Tossup	Lean D (flip)	Lean D (flip)
Nevada 1	D+2	Dina Titus	52.0% D	Likely D	Lean D	Likely D	Likely D
Nevada 2	R+7	Mark Amodei	55.0% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Likely R
Nevada 3	D+1	Susie Lee	51.4% D	Lean D	Lean D	Lean D	Lean D
Nevada 4	D+2	Steven Horsford	52.7% D	Likely D	Lean D	Likely D	Likely D
New Hampshire 1	D+2	Chris Pappas (retiring)	54.0% D	Likely D	Lean D	Lean D	Lean D
New Hampshire 2	D+2	Maggie Goodlander	53.0% D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D
New Jersey 2	R+5	Jeff Van Drew	58.0% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Likely R
New Jersey 5	D+2	Josh Gottheimer	54.6% D	Solid D	Solid D	Likely D	Likely D
New Jersey 7	EVEN	Thomas Kean Jr.	51.8% R	Lean R	Tilt R	Tossup	Tossup
New Jersey 9	D+2	Nellie Pou	50.8% D	Lean D	Lean D	Lean D	Lean D
New Jersey 11	D+5	Mikie Sherrill	56.5% D	Solid D	Solid D	Safe D	Likely D
New Mexico 2	EVEN	Gabe Vasquez	52.1% D	Tossup	Tilt D	Lean D	Lean D
New York 1	R+4	Nick LaLota	55.2% R	Solid R	Solid R	Likely R	Lean R
New York 2	R+6	Andrew Garbarino	59.8% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Likely R
New York 3	EVEN	Tom Suozzi	51.8% D	Lean D	Lean D	Lean D	Tilt D
New York 4	D+2	Laura Gillen	51.1% D	Tossup	Tilt D	Lean D	Lean D
New York 17	D+1	Mike Lawler	52.2% R	Lean R	Tossup	Lean R	Tossup
New York 18	D+2	Pat Ryan	57.2% D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D
New York 19	D+1	Josh Riley	51.1% D	Lean D	Lean D	Lean D	Lean D
New York 22	D+4	John Mannion	54.6% D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D
North Carolina 1	TBD [a]	Don Davis	49.5% D	Likely R (flip)	Tilt R (flip)	Likely R (flip)	Tossup
North Carolina 3	TBD [a]	Greg Murphy	77.4% R	Likely R	Solid R	Likely R	Likely R
North Carolina 7	R+7	David Rouzer	58.6% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Likely R
North Carolina 9	R+8	Richard Hudson	56.3% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Likely R
North Carolina 11	R+5	Chuck Edwards	56.8% R	Likely R	Solid R	Safe R	Lean R
Ohio 1	TBD [a]	Greg Landsman	54.6% D	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Lean D
Ohio 7	TBD [a]	Max Miller	51.1% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Likely R
Ohio 9	TBD [a]	Marcy Kaptur	48.3% D	Lean R (flip)	Tilt R (flip)	Lean R (flip)	Tossup
Ohio 10	TBD [a]	Mike Turner	57.6% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Likely R
Ohio 13	TBD [a]	Emilia Sykes	51.1% D	Lean D	Lean D	Lean D	Lean D
Ohio 15	TBD [a]	Mike Carey	56.5% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Likely R
Oregon 4	D+6	Val Hoyle	51.7% D	Solid D	Solid D	Likely D	Safe D
Oregon 5	D+4	Janelle Bynum	47.7% D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D
Oregon 6	D+6	Andrea Salinas	53.3% D	Solid D	Solid D	Likely D	Safe D
Pennsylvania 1	D+1	Brian Fitzpatrick	56.4% R	Likely R	Likely R	Lean R	Tossup
Pennsylvania 7	R+1	Ryan Mackenzie	50.5% R	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup
Pennsylvania 8	R+4	Rob Bresnahan	50.8% R	Lean R	Tilt R	Lean R	Tilt R
Pennsylvania 10	R+3	Scott Perry	50.6% R	Tossup	Tilt R	Tossup	Tossup
Pennsylvania 17	D+3	Chris Deluzio	53.9% D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D
South Carolina 1	R+6	Nancy Mace (retiring)	58.3% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Lean R
South Carolina 2	R+7	Joe Wilson	59.7% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Likely R
South Carolina 5	R+11	Ralph Norman (retiring)	63.6% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Likely R
Tennessee 7	R+10	Vacant [c]	59.5% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Likely R
Texas 8	TBD [a]	Morgan Luttrell (retiring)	68.2% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Likely R
Texas 9	TBD [a]	New seat	–	Solid R (flip)	Solid R (flip)	Safe R (flip)	Lean R (flip)
Texas 10	TBD [a]	Michael McCaul (retiring)	63.6% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Likely R
Texas 15	TBD [a]	Monica De La Cruz	57.1% R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R
Texas 21	TBD [a]	Chip Roy (retiring)	61.8% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Likely R
Texas 24	TBD [a]	Beth Van Duyne (R) and Julie Johnson (D)	60.3% R; 60.4% D	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Likely R
Texas 28	TBD [a]	Henry Cuellar	52.8% D	Tossup	Tilt D	Tossup	Tossup
Texas 32	TBD [a]	New seat	–	Solid R (flip)	Solid R (flip)	Safe R (flip)	Likely R (flip)
Texas 34	TBD [a]	Vicente Gonzalez	51.3% D	Lean R (flip)	Tossup	Lean R (flip)	Tossup
Texas 35	TBD [a]	New seat	–	Likely R (flip)	Likely R (flip)	Likely R (flip)	Tilt R (flip)
Texas 38	TBD [a]	Wesley Hunt (retiring)	62.9% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Likely R
Virginia 1	R+3	Rob Wittman	56.4% R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Lean R
Virginia 2	EVEN	Jen Kiggans	50.8% R	Lean R	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup
Virginia 5	R+6	John McGuire	57.5% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Likely R
Virginia 7	D+2	Eugene Vindman	51.3% D	Lean D	Lean D	Lean D	Lean D
Virginia 10	D+6	Suhas Subramanyam	52.3% D	Likely D	Solid D	Likely D	Likely D
Washington 3	R+2	Marie Gluesenkamp Perez	51.7% D	Tossup	Tilt D	Lean D	Tilt D
Washington 5	R+5	Michael Baumgartner	60.7% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Likely R
Washington 8	D+3	Kim Schrier	54.1% D	Likely D	Solid D	Likely D	Likely D
Wisconsin 1	R+2	Bryan Steil	54.1% R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Tilt R
Wisconsin 3	R+3	Derrick Van Orden	51.4% R	Tossup	Tilt R	Tossup	Tossup
Wisconsin 7	R+11	Tom Tiffany (retiring)	63.6% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Likely R
Overall				D – 207 R – 212 16 tossups	D – 210 R – 213 12 tossups	D – 210 R – 209 16 tossups	D - 211 R - 205 19 tossups

Party listings

The two parties' campaign committees (the National Republican Congressional Committee and Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee) published their own lists of targeted seats.

Republican-held seats

On April 8, 2025, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee released their target seat list which included Republican-held seats and open seats. ^[7]

1. Alaska 1: Nick Begich III
2. Arizona 1: Open seat
3. Arizona 2: Eli Crane
4. Arizona 6: Juan Ciscomani
5. California 22: David Valadao
6. California 40: Young Kim
7. California 41: Ken Calvert
8. Colorado 8: Gabe Evans
9. Florida 7: Cory Mills
10. Florida 13: Anna Paulina Luna
11. Florida 27: Maria Elvira Salazar
12. Iowa 1: Mariannette Miller-Meeks
13. Iowa 2: Open seat
14. Iowa 3: Zach Nunn
15. Kentucky 6: Open seat
16. Michigan 4: Bill Huizenga
17. Michigan 7: Tom Barrett
18. Michigan 10: Open seat
19. Missouri 2: Ann Wagner
20. Nebraska 2: Open seat
21. New Jersey 7: Thomas Kean Jr.
22. New York 17: Mike Lawler
23. Ohio 7: Max Miller
24. Ohio 10: Mike Turner
25. Ohio 15: Mike Carey
26. Pennsylvania 1: Brian Fitzpatrick
27. Pennsylvania 7: Ryan Mackenzie
28. Pennsylvania 8: Rob Bresnahan
29. Pennsylvania 10: Scott Perry
30. Tennessee 5: Andy Ogles
31. Texas 15: Monica De La Cruz
32. Virginia 1: Rob Wittman
33. Virginia 2: Jen Kiggans
34. Wisconsin 1: Bryan Steil
35. Wisconsin 3: Derrick Van Orden

Democratic-held seats

On March 17, 2025, the National Republican Congressional Committee released their target seat list which included Democratic-held seats and open seats. ^[8] The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee also released its frontline members, which are bolded below, and the ones not bolded are seats targeted by the Republican committee but not in the Democratic committee frontline program:

1. California 9: Josh Harder
2. California 13: Adam Gray
3. California 27: George Whitesides
4. California 45: Derek Tran
5. California 47: Dave Min
6. Florida 9: Darren Soto
7. Florida 23: Jared Moskowitz
8. Indiana 1: Frank Mrvan
9. Maine 2: Open seat
10. Michigan 8: Kristen McDonald Rivet
11. North Carolina 1: Don Davis
12. New Hampshire 1: Open seat
13. New Jersey 9: Nellie Pou
14. New Mexico 2: Gabe Vasquez
15. Nevada 1: Dina Titus
16. Nevada 3: Susie Lee
17. Nevada 4: Steven Horsford
18. New York 3: Tom Suozzi
19. New York 4: Laura Gillen
20. New York 19: Josh Riley
21. Ohio 9: Marcy Kaptur
22. Ohio 13: Emilia Sykes
23. Texas 28: Henry Cuellar
24. Texas 34: Vicente Gonzalez
25. Virginia 7: Eugene Vindman
26. Washington 3: Marie Gluesenkamp Perez

Notes

1. State enacted a new congressional map after the most recent publication of the Cook PVI.
2. Prediction was made before recent redistricting.
3. Republican Mark Green resigned on July 20, 2025. A special election will be held on December 2.

References

1. "2025 Cook PVI℠: District Map and List (119th Congress)". The Cook Political Report. April 3, 2025. Retrieved April 3, 2025.
2. "Election 2024: House results". CNN. Retrieved March 7, 2025.
3. "2026 CPR House Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved February 6, 2025.
4. "2026 House Ratings". Inside elections. Retrieved March 7, 2025.
5. "2026 House Ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved April 10, 2025.
6. "The 2026 House Forecast". Race to the WH. Retrieved October 8, 2025.
7. [e-mail] (April 8, 2025). "DCCC Announces 2026 Districts in Play". DCCC. Retrieved August 25, 2025.
8. Marinella, Mike (March 17, 2025). "NRCC Targets 26 Offensive Seats to Expand House Majority". NRCC. Retrieved August 25, 2025.