2026 Arizona gubernatorial election

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2026 Arizona gubernatorial election
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Party Democratic Republican
Incumbent Governor

Katie Hobbs
Democratic



The 2026 Arizona gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place on November 3, 2026, to elect the governor of Arizona. Incumbent Democratic Governor Katie Hobbs has filed paperwork to seek re-election to a second term.

Contents

Following the passage of Proposition 131 in the 2022 elections, this will be the first gubernatorial election in Arizona in which candidates will be required to nominate a running mate for the newly-established position of Lieutenant Governor. [1]

This will be one of five Democratic-held governorships up for election in 2026 in a state that Donald Trump won in the 2024 presidential election.

Background

Arizona is considered to be a purple state at both the federal and statewide level. After Joe Biden carried the state narrowly in the 2020 presidential election, [2] Donald Trump carried the state of Arizona by 5.5% in the 2024 presidential election. [3] Democrats control both U.S. Senate seats in Arizona [4] [5] and hold the governorship and secretary of state office [6] [7] while Republicans maintain a majority in the Arizona Senate and Arizona House of Representatives, [8] and control 6 of the 9 House of Representatives seats in the state. [9]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Filed paperwork

Declined

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Filed paperwork

  • Christopher Ames [17]
  • Isiah Gallegos [18]
  • Christian Grey [19]
  • Robert McVeigh [20]
  • Donald Mucheck, entrepreneur and healthcare professional [21]
  • Scott Neely, concrete pumping contractor, candidate for governor in 2022, and candidate for mayor of Mesa in 2024 [17]
  • George Nicholson [17]
  • Alan White, energy executive [22]

Potential

Declined

Endorsements

Andy Biggs
Federal officials
U.S. Representatives
State legislators
Individuals
Local officials
Karrin Taylor Robson
Federal officials
Governors
U.S. Senators
State legislators
Organizations
  • Combined Law Enforcement Associations of Arizona [37]
  • Tucson Police Officers Association [37]
  • Nogales Police Officers Association [37]

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Andy
Biggs		Karrin
Taylor Robson		OtherUndecided
Noble Predictive Insights [38] August 11–18, 2025385 (RV)± 5.0%27%37%–36%
NextGen P (R) [39] June 17–18, 20251,380 (LV)± 2.6%49%26%8%17%
KStrat (R) [40] [A] May 23–25, 20251,147 (LV)± 2.9%57%25%–18%
Pulse Decision Science (R) [41] [B] April 6–9, 2025511 (LV)± 4.4%45%16%–39%
NicoPAC (R) [42] January 24–26, 2025512 (RV)± 4.3%71%14%–15%
Hypothetical polling
Andy Biggs vs. Charlie Kirk vs. Jack McCain vs. Jake Hoffman vs. Karrin Taylor Robson vs. Kimberly Yee
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Andy
Biggs		Jake
Hoffman		Charlie
Kirk		Jack
McCain		Karrin
Taylor Robson		Kimberly
Yee		OtherUndecided
Noble Predictive Insights [43] May 12–16, 2025426 (RV)± 4.8%17%–17%–24%6%–37%
Noble Predictive Insights [44] February 11–13, 2025374 (RV)± 5.1%14%1%14%8%11%5%–47%
NicoPAC (R) [42] January 24–26, 2025512 (RV)± 4.3%59%–––9%11%3% [b] 19%
Data Orbital [45] [C] January 18–20, 2025500 (LV)± 4.5%32%–––12%7%4% [c] 45%
Andy Biggs vs. Kimberly Yee
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Andy
Biggs		Kimberly
Yee		OtherUndecided
NicoPAC (R) [42] January 24–26, 2025512 (RV)± 4.3%67%19%–14%
Karrin Taylor Robson vs. Kimberly Yee
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Karrin
Taylor Robson		Kimberly
Yee		OtherUndecided
NicoPAC (R) [42] January 24–26, 2025512 (RV)± 4.3%15%41%–43%

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Filed paperwork

  • Barry Hess, businessman and perennial candidate [d] [46]

Green primary

Candidates

Filed paperwork

  • Lisa Castillo [47]
  • Risa Lombardo [48]
  • William Pounds, streamer/recording artist and candidate for governor in 2022 [49]

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [50] TossupJanuary 23, 2025
Inside Elections [51] TossupAugust 28, 2025
Sabato's Crystal Ball [52] TossupMay 1, 2025
Race to the WH [53] Tilt DJune 30, 2025

Polling

Katie Hobbs vs. Andy Biggs

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Katie
Hobbs (D)		Andy
Biggs (R)		OtherUndecided
Noble Predictive Insights [38] August 11–18, 2025948 (RV)± 3.2%39%37%4% [e] 20%
Noble Predictive Insights [43] May 12–16, 20251,026 (RV)± 3.1%40%38%5% [f] 17%
Pulse Decision Science (R) [41] [B] April 6–9, 2025501 (LV)± 4.4%46%42%–12%
Noble Predictive Insights [44] February 11–13, 20251,006 (RV)± 3.1%40%38%5%17%
Kreate Strategies (R) [54] [D] February 5–7, 2025924 (LV)± 3.0%43%44%–13%

Katie Hobbs vs. Karrin Taylor Robson

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Katie
Hobbs (D)		Karrin
Taylor Robson (R)		OtherUndecided
Noble Predictive Insights [38] August 11–18, 2025948 (RV)± 3.2%40%38%4% [e] 18%
Noble Predictive Insights [43] May 12–16, 20251,026 (RV)± 3.1%41%39%3% [g] 17%
Pulse Decision Science (R) [41] [B] April 6–9, 2025501 (LV)± 4.4%47%38%–15%
Noble Predictive Insights [44] February 11–13, 20251,006 (RV)± 3.1%43%35%4%18%
Kreate Strategies (R) [54] [D] February 5–7, 2025924 (LV)± 3.0%40%38%–22%
Hypothetical polling

Katie Hobbs vs. Charlie Kirk

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Katie
Hobbs (D)		Charlie
Kirk (R)		OtherUndecided
Noble Predictive Insights [44] February 11–13, 20251,006 (RV)± 3.1%39%36%7%18%

Katie Hobbs vs. Jake Hoffman

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Katie
Hobbs (D)		Jake
Hoffman (R)		OtherUndecided
Noble Predictive Insights [44] February 11–13, 20251,006 (RV)± 3.1%40%35%5%20%

Katie Hobbs vs. Jack McCain

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Katie
Hobbs (D)		Jack
McCain (R)		OtherUndecided
Noble Predictive Insights [44] February 11–13, 20251,006 (RV)± 3.1%37%36%6%21%

Katie Hobbs vs. Kimberly Yee

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Katie
Hobbs (D)		Kimberly
Yee (R)		OtherUndecided
Noble Predictive Insights [44] February 11–13, 20251,006 (RV)± 3.1%40%34%6%20%

See also

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ↑ Tom Hatten with 2%; Scott Neely with 1%
  3. ↑ "Refused" with 4%
  4. ↑ Nominee for Governor of Arizona in 2002, 2006, 2010, and 2014, 2018, and 2022; nominee for U.S. Senate in 2000, and write-in candidate in 2018 and 2020
  5. 1 2 "Third party candidate" with 4%
  6. ↑ "A third party candidate" with 5%
  7. ↑ "A third party candidate" with 3%

Partisan clients

  1. ↑ Poll sponsored by American Commitment
  2. 1 2 3 Poll sponsored by Club for Growth
  3. ↑ Poll sponsored by AZ Free News
  4. 1 2 Poll sponsored by American Encore which supports the Republican Party.

References

  1. ↑ Barchenger, Stacey (September 21, 2023). "Arizona will elect its first lieutenant governor in 2026. What to know about the role". The Arizona Republic . Retrieved October 14, 2024.
  2. ↑ Biden carries Arizona, flipping a longtime Republican stronghold, CNN, November 13, 2020
  3. ↑ US election: How big a win was this for Donald Trump?, Sky News, January 20, 2025
  4. ↑ Democrat Gallego wins Arizona, Republicans hold 53-47 US Senate majority, Al Jazeera, November 12, 2024
  5. ↑ Mark Kelly wins Senate race in Arizona, PBS, November 12, 2022
  6. ↑ Hobbs wins Arizona governor’s race, flipping state for Dems, AP News, November 14, 2022
  7. ↑ Post-Election: Republicans Add to Strong Hold of State Governments, MultiState.US, November 6, 2024
  8. ↑ Republicans maintain total control of the Arizona Legislature. Here’s what you need to know., The Copper Courier, November 20, 2024
  9. ↑ Republicans keep 6-3 majority in Arizona's US House delegation, AZ Central, November 13, 2024
  10. ↑ Barchenger, Stacey (February 2, 2024). "Why Arizonans can't see Gov. Katie Hobbs' fundraising numbers, but can see others". The Arizona Republic . Retrieved September 13, 2024. "I'm actively raising funds for reelection," Hobbs said.
  11. ↑ https://apps.arizona.vote/electioninfo/assets/68/0/StatementsOfInterest/hobbs-katie-23946-27895.pdf
  12. ↑ "Candidate Statement of Interest" (PDF). Apps.Arizona.Vote. April 15, 2025. Retrieved June 8, 2025.
  13. ↑ Wingett Sanchez, Yvonne; Marley, Patrick (December 17, 2024). "Top Arizona election official accuses predecessors of ignoring proof-of-citizenship problem". The Washington Post . Retrieved December 19, 2024. Fontes told The Post this week that he is running for reelection and is no longer considering challenging Hobbs in the Democratic primary for governor.
  14. ↑ Gilger, Lauren (November 20, 2024). "How the field is shaping up for the 2026 Arizona governor race". KJZZ . Retrieved December 14, 2024. There's also been talk from the Democratic side of Attorney General Kris Mayes challenging [Katie Hobbs]...She says as of right now she's planning on running for reelection.
  15. ↑ Schutsky, Wayne (January 27, 2025). "Congressman Andy Biggs officially enters 2026 Arizona governor's race". KJZZ-TV . Retrieved January 28, 2025.
  16. ↑ Stone, Kevin (February 12, 2025). "Karrin Taylor Robson announces 2nd run for governor of Arizona". KTAR-TV . Retrieved February 12, 2025.
  17. 1 2 3 4 5 Gersony, Laura (January 21, 2024). "US Rep. Andy Biggs signals he is considering run for Arizona governor in 2026". The Arizona Republic . Retrieved January 21, 2023.
  18. ↑ "Candidate Statement of Interest" (PDF). Apps.Arizona.Vote. April 27, 2025. Retrieved June 8, 2025.
  19. ↑ "STATE OF ARIZONA Candidate Statement of Interest - Christian Grey" (PDF). Arizona Secretary of State. Retrieved February 12, 2025.
  20. ↑ "Candidate Statement of Interest" (PDF). Apps.Arizona.Vote. May 19, 2025. Retrieved June 8, 2025.
  21. ↑ "Candidate Statement of Interest" (PDF). Apps.Arizona.Vote. February 3, 2025. Retrieved June 8, 2025.
  22. ↑ "Candidate Statement of Interest" (PDF). Apps.Arizona.Vote. February 11, 2025. Retrieved June 8, 2025.
  23. ↑ Duda, Jeremy (August 18, 2025). "Schweikert may join GOP primary for 2026 Arizona governor's race". Axios . Retrieved August 18, 2025.
  24. ↑ Solender, Andrew (December 12, 2024). "GOP Rep. Ciscomani passes on run for Arizona governor". Axios . Retrieved December 12, 2024. Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R-Ariz.) will run for reelection to Congress rather than mount a bid for governor in 2026, his campaign spokesperson told Axios.
  25. ↑ Roberts, Laurie (November 19, 2024). "Republican goal for 2026 election: Kari Lake types need not apply | Opinion". The Arizona Republic . Retrieved November 20, 2024. A smattering of prominent and not-so-prominent Republicans are being mentioned as possibilities for making a run at Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs in 2026...some are floating Sen. Jake Hoffman as a possibility.
  26. ↑ Gersony, Laura (December 27, 2024). "'I don't want to run again': Kari Lake shrugs off political future at Turning Point event". The Arizona Republic . Retrieved December 27, 2024.
  27. ↑ Nir, David (December 2, 2024). "Morning Digest: The Downballot's early guide to the top races for governor this cycle". The Downballot. Retrieved December 2, 2024.
  28. ↑ Montini, E. J. "Charlie Kirk hammers second nail in Karrin Taylor Robson's campaign coffin | Opinion". The Arizona Republic. Retrieved May 19, 2025.
  29. ↑ Stone, Kevin (May 28, 2025). "Kimberly Yee files to face Tom Horne for education position". KTAR-FM . Retrieved May 28, 2025.
  30. 1 2 O'Sullivan, Serena (April 21, 2025). "Another dual endorsement: Donald Trump says Andy Biggs has his support in gubernatorial run". KTAR-FM . Retrieved April 21, 2025.
  31. 1 2 3 Arcand, Cameron (February 12, 2025). "'I will not rest': Border state gubernatorial hopeful launches campaign weeks after Trump backed her". Fox News . Retrieved February 13, 2025.
  32. ↑ Montini, E. J. (May 19, 2025). "Charlie Kirk hammers second nail in Karrin Taylor Robson's campaign coffin | Opinion". The Arizona Republic . Retrieved May 19, 2025.
  33. ↑ "Debbie Lesko endorses Andy Biggs for governor of Arizona". NW Valley Times. February 10, 2025. Retrieved February 13, 2025.
  34. ↑ Arcand, Cameron (March 24, 2025). "Top GOP governor makes key endorsement in border state gubernatorial race: 'Deeply honored'". Fox News . Retrieved March 24, 2025.
  35. ↑ Piñon, Ericka (June 10, 2025). "Senator Pete Ricketts Endorses Karrin Taylor Robson for Governor". Cactus Politics. Retrieved June 15, 2025.
  36. 1 2 "GOP primary for Arizona governor pits a billionaire developer against a conservative firebrand". KTAR-FM . February 19, 2025. Retrieved July 29, 2025.
  37. 1 2 3 Piñon, Ericka (July 22, 2025). "Nogales Police Endorsement Strengthens Robson's Campaign". Cactus Politics. Retrieved July 29, 2025.
  38. 1 2 3 "Robson Rewrites the 2022 Playbook as She Opens with an Early Lead in Arizona GOP Primary". Noble Predictive Insights. August 28, 2025. Retrieved August 29, 2025.
  39. ↑ Pekau, Gregg (June 18, 2025). "Andy Biggs Continues to Hold Massive Lead in 2026 Republican Governor Primary". NextGen P. Retrieved June 19, 2025.
  40. ↑ "New Poll: Andy Biggs Has Commanding Lead in Arizona Gubernatorial Primary". American Commitment. May 29, 2025. Retrieved May 30, 2025.
  41. 1 2 3 Mutnick, Ally (April 21, 2025). "Club for Growth wades into Arizona governor race, with a shot at Karrin Taylor Robson". Politico . Retrieved April 21, 2025.
  42. 1 2 3 4 "Andy Biggs Leads Field in RV Arizona Primary Poll from NicoPAC". NicoPAC. January 27, 2025. Retrieved January 27, 2025.
  43. 1 2 3 "AZ Governor's Race: Biggs Gains Momentum as GOP Field Shifts". Noble Predictive Insights. May 29, 2025. Retrieved May 29, 2025.
  44. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 "Arizona GOP Voters Still Searching for a Gubernatorial Primary Frontrunner". Noble Predictive Insights. February 26, 2025. Retrieved February 27, 2025.
  45. ↑ Holloway, Matthew (January 24, 2025). "Exclusive AZ Free News Poll: Biggs Ahead In 2026 Republican Primary For Governor - AZ FREE NEWS". azfreenews.com. Retrieved January 24, 2025.
  46. ↑ "STATE OF ARIZONA Candidate Statement of Interest - Barry Hess" (PDF). Arizona Secretary of State. January 3, 2025. Retrieved February 12, 2025.
  47. ↑ "Candidate Statement of Interest" (PDF). Apps.Arizona.Vote. January 21, 2025. Retrieved June 8, 2025.
  48. ↑ "Candidate Statement of Interest" (PDF). Apps.Arizona.Vote. March 5, 2025. Retrieved June 8, 2025.
  49. ↑ "SeeTheMoney". seethemoney.az.gov.
  50. ↑ "2026 CPR Governor Race ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 23, 2025.
  51. ↑ "Gubernatorial Ratings". Inside Elections . Retrieved February 7, 2025.
  52. ↑ "2026 Governor". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved May 1, 2025.
  53. ↑ "Governor Forecast - 2026-2026". Race to the WH. Retrieved June 30, 2025.
  54. 1 2 "Arizona 2026 General Ballot Poll" (PDF). Kreate Strategies. February 8, 2025. Archived from the original (PDF) on February 14, 2025. Retrieved February 12, 2025.
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