November 3, 2026 | |||||||||||||||||||||
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County results Blackburn: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% Green: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% | |||||||||||||||||||||
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| Elections in Tennessee |
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The 2026 Tennessee gubernatorial election was held on November 3, 2026 to elect the governor of Tennessee for a four-year term starting on January 16, 2027. Incumbent Republican governor Bill Lee was term-limited and ineligible to seek a third consecutive term. Republican U.S. senator Marsha Blackburn narrowly defeated Democratic Memphis City Council member Jerri Green. [1] Blackburn received 45.5% of the vote to Green's 43.0%, winning by approximately 54,000 votes.
The primary elections took place on August 6, 2026, with Blackburn and Green securing the Republican and Democratic nominations, respectively. [2]
Blackburn significantly underperformed compared to previous Republican gubernatorial candidates. In 2022, Bill Lee won re-election by 32 percentage points, while Blackburn won by just 2.5 points. All 95 counties shifted toward Democrats, with Knox, Hamilton, Haywood, Madison, Montgomery, and Rutherford counties flipping Democratic. [3] [4] Independent candidate David Hatley also attracted support from conservative voters dissatisfied with Blackburn, receiving 9.3% of the statewide vote, or nearly 196,000 votes, and finishing third. [5] [6] This was the closest Tennessee gubernatorial election since 2002.
Blackburn became the first woman elected governor of Tennessee and will take office in January 2027. Her victory extended Republican control of the governorship, which the party has held since 2011. [7]
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Marsha Blackburn | John Rose | Monty Fritts | Other/ Undecided [c] | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Race to the WH [42] | through August 1, 2026 | August 5, 2026 | 39.1% | 28.3% | 22.1% | 10.5% | Blackburn +10.8% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [d] | Margin of error | Marsha Blackburn | John Rose | Monty Fritts | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wick [43] [e] [A] | July 29 – August 1, 2026 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 51% | 32% | 17% | – | – |
| 45% | 28% | 17% | – | 9% | ||||
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R) [44] [B] | July 26–28, 2026 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 42% | 25% | 22% | – | 11% |
| OnMessage Inc. [45] | July 23–25, 2026 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 35% | 31% | 26% | – | 9% |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R) [46] [B] | June 28–30, 2026 | – (LV) | – | 51% | 20% | 12% | – | 17% |
| McLaughlin & Associates (R) [47] [C] | June 28–30, 2026 | 600 (LV) | – | 44% | 29% | 13% | – | 14% |
| Targoz Market Research [48] [D] | April 20–27, 2026 | 529 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 63% | 10% | 5% | – | 22% |
| VictoryPhones [49] [E] | March 18–24, 2026 | 300 (LV) | ± 5.7% | 56% | 14% | 11% | – | 20% |
| Cygnal (R) [50] | March 16–17, 2026 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 58% | 7% | – | 5% | 30% |
| VictoryPhones [51] [E] | February 5–8, 2026 | – (LV) | – | 61% | 8% | 5% | – | 26% |
| Targoz Market Research [52] [D] | January 11–18, 2026 | 559 (LV) | – | 56% | 9% | 7% | 1% [f] | 27% |
| Targoz Market Research [53] [D] | October 26–29, 2025 | 545 (RV) | – | 58% | 9% | 5% | – | 29% |
| Quantus Insights (R) [54] | August 5–7, 2025 | – | – | 35% | 6% | – | 22% [g] | 37% |
| Targoz Market Research [55] [D] | July 27 – August 1, 2025 | 623 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 66% | 14% | – | – | 19% |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R) [56] [57] [B] | January 13–16, 2025 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 71% | 13% | – | – | 16% |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Marsha Blackburn | 311,392 | 43.55% | |
| Republican | John Rose | 235,561 | 32.95% | |
| Republican | Monty Fritts | 168,004 | 23.50% | |
| Write-in | 1 | 0.00% | ||
| Total votes | 714,958 | 100.00% | ||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [d] | Margin of error | Carnita Atwater | Tim Cyr | Jerri Green | Adam Kurtz | Kevin Lee McCants | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Targoz Market Research [48] [D] | April 20–27, 2026 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 8% | 3% | 14% | 2% | 11% | 62% |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Jerri Green | 244,277 | 69.04% | |
| Democratic | Carnita Atwater | 63,289 | 17.89% | |
| Democratic | Kevin Lee McCants | 18,972 | 5.36% | |
| Democratic | Tim Cyr | 14,799 | 4.18% | |
| Democratic | Adam Kurtz | 12,465 | 3.52% | |
| Total votes | 353,802 | 100.00% | ||
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report [71] | Solid R | October 29, 2026 |
| Decision Desk HQ [72] | Likely R | November 2, 2026 |
| Fox News [73] | Solid R | November 1, 2026 |
| Inside Elections [74] | Likely R | October 29, 2026 |
| NBC News [75] | Solid R | November 2, 2026 |
| RealClearPolitics [76] | Solid R | November 1, 2026 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball [77] | Safe R | November 2, 2026 |
| Silver Bulletin [78] | Solid R | November 2, 2026 |
| No. | Date | Host | Link | Republican | Democratic | Independent | Independent |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key: P Participant A Absent N Not invited I Invited W Withdrawn | |||||||
| Marsha Blackburn | Jerri Green | David Hatley | Lauren Pinkston | ||||
| 1 [86] | October 27, 2026 | Tennessee Press Association Middle Tennessee State University | YouTube | A | P | P | P |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [d] | Margin of error | Marsha Blackburn (R) | Jerri Green (D) | David Hatley (I) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Targoz Market Research [87] [D] | October 24 – November 2, 2026 | 718 (LV) | ± 3.58% | 54% | 35% | 7% | 2% [h] | 2% |
| GOTV Polling [88] [F] | October 25–26, 2026 | 1,196 (V) | ± 2.8% | 35% | 30% | 26% | 3% [i] | 6% |
| Spry Strategies (R) [89] | October 10–15, 2026 | 635 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 44% | 32% | 12% | 2% [j] | 10% |
| TargetSmart [90] [G] | September 9–12, 2026 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 36% | 10% | 2% [k] | 7% |
| Targoz Market Research [92] [D] | August 15–26, 2026 | 1,149 (RV) | ± 2.77% | 46% | 33% | – | 8% [l] | 14% |
| Targoz Market Research [92] [D] | August 15–26, 2026 | 601 (LV) | ± 2.77% | 55% | 34% | – | 7% | 4% |
| Targoz Market Research [48] [D] | April 20–27, 2026 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 51% | 27% | – | 22% | |
| Quantus Insights (R) [54] | August 5–7, 2025 | 600 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 28% | – | 7% [m] | 17% |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Marsha Blackburn | 955,298 | 45.49 | −19.39 | |
| Democratic | Jerri Green | 902,615 | 42.98 | +10.03 | |
| Independent | David Hatley | 195,288 | 9.30 | N/A | |
| Independent | Lauren Pinkston | 26,186 | 1.25 | N/A | |
| Independent | Dean Brewer | 4,095 | 0.20 | N/A | |
| Independent | Ray Brown | 2,869 | 0.14 | N/A | |
| Independent | Wendell Jackson | 2,365 | 0.11 | N/A | |
| Independent | Eddie Lee Murphy | 2,293 | 0.11 | N/A | |
| Independent | Robert C. Vick | 2,240 | 0.11 | N/A | |
| Independent | Misam Abidi | 2,110 | 0.10 | N/A | |
| Independent | Charles Van Morgan | 1,317 | 0.06 | N/A | |
| Independent | L. Webb Taylor | 1,118 | 0.05 | N/A | |
| Independent | Dave Seeman | 870 | 0.04 | N/A | |
| Independent | Victor L. Scoggin | 817 | 0.04 | N/A | |
| Independent | Karl Knox Smithson | 494 | 0.02 | N/A | |
| Total votes | 2,099,975 | 100.00 | |||
| Republican hold | |||||
| County | Marsha Blackburn Republican | Jerri Green Democratic | Other votes | Total votes | |||
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| % | # | % | # | % | # | ||
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| Washington | |||||||
| Wayne | |||||||
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| White | |||||||
| Williamson | |||||||
| Wilson | |||||||
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
Rep. Mark Green (R-Tenn.) will not run for governor in 2026, according to a source familiar with his thinking.
Jacobs spent months laying the groundwork for a run for governor in 2026, but endorsed Blackburn the night of Jan. 14
There are also four democrats running for this position: Jerri Green, Carnita Atwater, Adam Kurtz, and Tim Cyr...