2024 United States Senate election in Tennessee

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2024 United States Senate election in Tennessee
Flag of Tennessee.svg
←  2018 November 5, 2024 2030  →
TurnoutUnreleased [1]
  Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) official headshot - 116th Congress (cropped).jpg Gloria Johnson (cropped).jpg
Nominee Marsha Blackburn Gloria Johnson
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote1,918,7431,027,461
Percentage63.80%34.16%
2024 United States Senate election in Tennessee results map by county.svg
2024 US Senate Election in Tennessee by congressional district.svg
Blackburn:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%
Johnson:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%
U.S. senator before election

Marsha Blackburn
Republican

Elected U.S. senator

Marsha Blackburn
Republican

The 2024 United States Senate election in Tennessee was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Tennessee. Incumbent one-term Republican Senator Marsha Blackburn defeated state representative Gloria Johnson with 63.8% of the vote. Blackburn significantly improved on her performance from 2018.

Contents

The primaries took place on August 1, 2024, with Blackburn and Johnson winning their respective party nominations. This was the first all-woman general election for a Tennessee senate seat. [2]

Blackburn performed comparably to Donald Trump in the general election overall but notably outperformed him in some key counties. Specifically, she outperformed him in Hamilton, Madison, Shelby, and Washington. She also outperformed Trump in Haywood County—a county he lost and where she had also previously lost—but this time, she managed to flip it.

Although Gloria Johnson campaigned for the Senate seat, she simultaneously sought and won re-election to the State House in the 90th district, where she ran unopposed in that race. [3]

Background

At the federal and state levels, Tennessee is considered to be a strongly red state, having gone to Donald Trump by 23 points in the 2020 presidential election. In Tennessee, Republicans occupy both Senate seats, 8 out of 9 U.S. House seats, supermajorities in both state legislative chambers, and the governor's office.

Due to Tennessee's strong conservative bent, this race was considered a "Safe" Republican hold.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Endorsements

Marsha Blackburn

U.S. Executive Branch officials

Organizations

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of July 12, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Marsha Blackburn (R)$14,501,964$6,339,437$8,776,627
Source: Federal Election Commission [10]

Results

Results by county: .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} Blackburn 80-90% >90% 2024 Tennessee Senate Republican primary.svg
Results by county:
  Blackburn
  •   80–90%
  •   >90%
Republican primary results [11]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Marsha Blackburn (incumbent) 367,799 89.48%
Republican Tres Wittum43,24410.52%
Write-in 2<0.01%
Total votes411,045 100.00%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Declined

  • Joanne Sowell, attorney [15]

Endorsements

Gloria Johnson

Individuals

Organizations

Labor unions

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of July 12, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Marquita Bradshaw (D)$36,054$35,691$364
Gloria Johnson (D)$5,046,183$3,009,194$2,048,985
Source: Federal Election Commission [10]

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Marquita
Bradshaw		Gloria
Johnson		Civil
Miller-Watkins		OtherUndecided
Targoz Market Research [20] [A] March 15 – April 2, 2024282 (LV)± 2.77%7%38%2%1%52%
Targoz Market Research [21] [A] December 14–28, 2023251 (LV)± 2.66%11%41%2%1%45%

Results

Results by county: Johnson 40-50% 50-60% 60-70% 70-80% 80-90% >90% Miller-Watkins 40-50% 2024TNsenDemPrim.svg
Results by county:
  Johnson
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  •   >90%
  Miller-Watkins
  •   40–50%
Democratic primary results [22]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Gloria Johnson 143,962 70.20%
Democratic Marquita Bradshaw 44,65721.78%
Democratic Lola Brown10,0274.89%
Democratic Civil Miller-Watkins6,4203.13%
Total votes205,066 100.00%

Independents

Candidates

Declared

General election

After defeating Former Governor Phil Bredesen by a surprisingly wide margin in 2018, Blackburn sought re-election. She was easily re-nominated as the Republican nominee. [20]

Initially, 2020 Democratic nominee for senate, Marquita Bradshaw was seen as the early favorite but months after her announcement, State Representative Gloria Johnson entered the race. Johnson had gained prominence for her protest on the Tennessee house floor over the 2023 Covenant School Shooting. Of the three representatives involved in the protest, two were expelled from the legislature, while Johnson narrowly avoided expulsion by just one vote. Johnson would go on to easily win the nomination. [12] [13]

Throughout the campaign, Blackburn consistently led Johnson in the polls and enjoyed a significant financial edge, with a $9 million fundraising advantage. On October 16, the two candidates were scheduled to debate, but Blackburn declined to attend, leaving Johnson to face an empty chair. [10] [23] [24]

In the end, Blackburn easily won re-election, improving vastly from her 2018 performance by nearly 19 percentage points. She also narrowly flipped Haywood county, which had voted for Bredesen six years prior. While Johnson did perform well in the traditionally Democratic counties of Shelby and Davidson (Home to the cities of Memphis and Nashville respectively), she lost her home county, Knox County (Home to Knoxville) by a wide margin. [25]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [26] Solid RNovember 9, 2023
Inside Elections [27] Solid RNovember 9, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball [28] Safe RNovember 9, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill [29] Safe RJune 8, 2024
Elections Daily [30] Safe RMay 4, 2023
CNalysis [31] Safe RNovember 21, 2023
RealClearPolitics [32] Solid RAugust 5, 2024
Split Ticket [33] Safe ROctober 23, 2024
538 [34] Solid ROctober 23, 2024

Post-primary endorsements

Marsha Blackburn (R)
Individuals

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of July 12, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Marsha Blackburn (R)$14,501,964$6,339,437$8,776,627
Gloria Johnson (D)$5,069,008$3,009,194$2,048,985
Source: Federal Election Commission [10]

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		Marsha
Blackburn (R)		Gloria
Johnson (D)		Undecided [b] Margin
538 [36] through October 28, 2024October 29, 202455.0%35.7%9.3%Blackburn +19.3
RCP [37] October 1, 2023 - May 9, 2024September 9, 202450.5%33.0%16.5%Blackburn +17.5
TheHill/DDHQ [38] through October 28, 2024October 29, 202459.4%36.5%4.1%Blackburn +22.9%
Average55.0%35.1%9.9%Blackburn +19.9%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Marsha
Blackburn (R)		Gloria
Johnson (D)		Undecided
ActiVote [39] October 7–28, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%61%39%–
ActiVote [40] September 14 – October 18, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%61%39%–
Targoz Market Research [41] [A] September 27 – October 8, 20241,159 (RV)± 2.77%52%29%18% [c]
971 (LV)± 2.77%54%31%15% [d]
ActiVote [42] July 25 – September 2, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%60%40%–
Targoz Market Research [43] [A] June 20 – July 1, 20241,124 (RV)± 2.77%49%32%19%
944 (LV)± 2.77%52%32%16%
SSRS/Vanderbilt University [44] April 26 – May 9, 20241,003 (RV)± 3.4%51%40%9%
Targoz Market Research [20] [A] March 15 – April 2, 2024955 (LV)± 2.77%45%29%26%
Targoz Market Research [45] [A] October 5–16, 2023850 (LV)± 2.79%49%29%23%
Hypothetical polling

Marsha Blackburn vs. Marquita Bradshaw

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Marsha
Blackburn (R)		Marquita
Bradshaw (D)		Undecided
Targoz Market Research [43] [A] June 20 – July 1, 20241,124 (RV)± 2.77%51%33%17%
942 (LV)± 2.77%54%33%14%
Targoz Market Research [20] [A] March 15 – April 2, 2024947 (LV)± 2.77%46%22%32%
Targoz Market Research [45] [A] October 5–16, 2023824 (LV)± 2.79%48%36%17%

Results

2024 United States Senate election in Tennessee [46]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Marsha Blackburn (incumbent) 1,918,743 63.80% +9.09%
Democratic Gloria Johnson 1,027,46134.16%−9.76%
Independent Tharon Chandler28,4440.95%N/A
Independent Pamela Moses24,6820.82%N/A
Independent Hastina Robinson8,2780.28%N/A
Total votes3,007,608 100.00%
2024 Knoxville Ballot Knoxville Tennessee 2024 Presidential Ballot.jpg
2024 Knoxville Ballot

By congressional district

Blackburn won 8 of 9 congressional districts.

DistrictBlackburnJohnsonRepresentative
1st Diana Harshbarger
2nd Tim Burchett
3rd Chuck Fleischmann
4th Scott DesJarlais
5th Andy Ogles
6th John W. Rose
7th Mark E. Green
8th David Kustoff
9th Steve Cohen

By county

County [25] Marsha Blackburn
Republican		Gloria Johnson
Democratic		Other votesTotal

votes

 %# %# %#
Anderson 66.52%23,71832.49%11,587
Bedford 77.98%15,09821.01%4,067
Benton 80.71%5,65318.32%1,283
Bledsoe 85.55%5,06113.70%897
Blount 73.06%9,55126.00%17,632
Bradley 79.06%37,62219.95%9,494
Campbell 81.48%12,25016.60%2,495
Cannon 80.31 %5,30817.72%1,171
Carroll 81.05%9,44617.31%2,017
Carter 81.30%19,68716.85%4.081
Cheatham 70.84%14,51827.14%5,563
Chester 82.86%6,16915.25%1,135
Claiborne 82.49%10,88516.05%2,118
Clay 81.67%2,90016.70%593
Cocke 81.92%12,47116.13%2,456
Coffee 75.42%18,46322.17%5,428
Crockett 75.81%4,35019.59%1,124
Cumberland 78.38%26,42720.02%6,751
Davidson
Decatur
DeKalb
Dickson
Dyer
Fayette
Fentress
Franklin
Gibson
Giles
Grainger
Greene
Grundy
Hamblen
Hamilton 56.31%97,47541.66%72,1152.04%3,527173,117
Hancock
Hardeman
Hardin
Hawkins
Haywood
Henderson
Henry
Hickman
Houston
Humphreys
Jackson
Jefferson
Johnson
Knox
Lake
Lauderdale
Lawrence
Lewis
Lincoln
Loudon
Macon
Madison
Marion
Marshall
Maury
McMinn
McNairy
Meigs
Monroe
Montgomery
Moore
Morgan
Obion
Overton
Perry
Pickett
Polk
Putnam
Rhea
Roane
Robertson
Rutherford
Scott
Sequatchie
Sevier
Shelby
Smith
Stewart
Sullivan
Sumner
Tipton
Trousdale
Unicoi
Union
Van Buren
Warren
Washington
Wayne
Weakley
White
Williamson
Wilson

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

See also

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ↑ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  3. ↑ Moses (I) with 4%; Chandler (I) with 2%
  4. ↑ Moses (I) with 5%; Chandler (I) with 2%

Partisan clients

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Poll sponsored by the Beacon Center of Tennessee

References

  1. ↑ "Tennessee Voter Turnout in 2024". Tennessee Secretary of State. November 5, 2024. Retrieved December 6, 2024.
  2. ↑ "Results for Women in the August 1st Primaries in Tennessee". cawp.rutgers.edu.
  3. ↑ WBIR Channel 10 (February 7, 2024). Rep. Gloria Johnson running for reelection in the TN House while also running for US Senate . Retrieved August 27, 2024– via YouTube.{{cite AV media}}: CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link)
  4. ↑ "Tennessee US Senate Poll". October 17, 2023.
  5. 1 2 3 4 5 "Candidate Lists | Tennessee Secretary of State". sos.tn.gov. Retrieved April 4, 2024.
  6. ↑ "Trump Endorses Marsha Blackburn for Re-Election: "A Friend and a WINNER" - Sen. Marsha Blackburn Campaign Press Release | LegiStorm". www.legistorm.com. Retrieved August 2, 2024.
  7. ↑ "Support Pro-Israel Candidates". AIPAC PAC. Retrieved April 7, 2023.
  8. ↑ "Press Releases | Maggie's List". maggieslist.org. Retrieved June 25, 2023.
  9. ↑ "Endorsements". Turning Point Action. Retrieved December 14, 2023.
  10. 1 2 3 4 "2024 Election United States Senate - Tennessee". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission . Retrieved August 5, 2024.
  11. ↑ "August 1, 2024 Republican Primary United States Senate" (PDF). Tennessee Secretary of State. Retrieved September 14, 2024.
  12. 1 2 Kamisar, Ben (September 5, 2023). "Tennessee Democrat reprimanded for gun violence protest is running for Senate". NBC News . Retrieved September 5, 2023.
  13. 1 2 Elliott, Stephen (July 20, 2023). "Former Nominee Marquita Bradshaw Running for Senate Again". Nashville Scene . Retrieved July 24, 2023.
  14. ↑ McCall, Holly (October 26, 2023). "Fayette County educator Civil Miller-Watkins enters Democratic primary for 2024 Tenn. U.S. Senate". Tennessee Lookout. Retrieved January 6, 2024.
  15. ↑ Elliott, Stephen (July 14, 2023). "Nashville attorney ends U.S. Senate campaign effort". Nashville Post. Retrieved July 16, 2023.
  16. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 Bloom, Madison (March 13, 2024). "Brittany Howard, Allison Russell, Maren Morris, and More Support U.S. Senate Candidate Gloria Johnson With New Song: Listen". Pitchfork . Retrieved March 13, 2024.
  17. ↑ "2024 – Feminist Majority PAC". feministmajoritypac.org. Retrieved February 9, 2024.
  18. ↑ "2024 Federal Endorsements". NOW PAC. Retrieved May 16, 2024.
  19. ↑ "Our Recommended Candidates". Education Votes. Retrieved February 14, 2024.
  20. 1 2 3 4 Targoz Market Research
  21. ↑ Targoz Market Research
  22. ↑ "August 1, 2024 Democratic Primary United States Senate" (PDF). Tennessee Secretary of State. Retrieved September 14, 2024.
  23. ↑ Staff, MLK50 (October 16, 2024). "U.S. Senate debate: Sen. Marsha Blackburn and Rep. Gloria Johnson invited". MLK50: Justice Through Journalism. Retrieved December 13, 2024.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link)
  24. ↑ Williamson County Television (October 17, 2024). U.S. Senate Race Debate - October 16, 2024 . Retrieved December 13, 2024– via YouTube.
  25. 1 2 State of Tennessee General Election Results, November 5, 2024, Results By County (PDF) (Report). Secretary of State of Tennessee. December 2, 2024. Retrieved December 2, 2024.
  26. ↑ "2024 Senate Race ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 25, 2023.
  27. ↑ "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. January 6, 2023. Retrieved January 10, 2023.
  28. ↑ "2024 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. January 24, 2023. Retrieved February 13, 2023.
  29. ↑ "2024 Senate prediction map". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. June 8, 2024. Retrieved June 8, 2024.
  30. ↑ "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. August 1, 2023. Retrieved August 2, 2023.
  31. ↑ "'24 Senate Forecast". CNalysis. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
  32. ↑ "Battle for the Senate 2024". RealClearPolitics . Retrieved August 5, 2024.
  33. ↑ "2024 Senate Forecast". Split Ticket. May 25, 2023. Retrieved October 23, 2024.
  34. ↑ "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. June 11, 2024. Retrieved October 23, 2024.
  35. ↑ "Vivek Ramaswamy Stumps for Senator Blackburn in Knoxville". Marsha Blackburn for U.S. Senate. Retrieved August 27, 2024.
  36. ↑ 538
  37. ↑ RCP
  38. ↑ TheHill/DDHQ
  39. ↑ ActiVote
  40. ↑ ActiVote
  41. ↑ Targoz Market Research
  42. ↑ ActiVote
  43. 1 2 Targoz Market Research
  44. ↑ SSRS/Vanderbilt University
  45. 1 2 Targoz Market Research
  46. ↑ State of Tennessee General Election Results, November 5, 2024, Results By Office (PDF) (Report). Secretary of State of Tennessee. December 2, 2024. Retrieved December 2, 2024.

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