2024 United States presidential election in California

Last updated

2024 United States presidential election in California
Flag of California.svg
  2020 November 5, 20242028 
Turnout71.43% (of registered voters) Decrease2.svg 9.24 pp
59.97% (of eligible voters) Decrease2.svg 10.91 pp [1]
  Kamala Harris Vice Presidential Portrait (cropped).jpg TrumpPortrait (3x4a).jpg
Nominee Kamala Harris Donald Trump
Party Democratic Republican
Home state California Florida
Running mate Tim Walz JD Vance
Electoral vote540
Popular vote9,276,1796,081,697
Percentage58.47%38.33%

California Presidential Election Results 2024.svg
2024 U.S. Presidential Election in California by Congressional District.svg

President before election

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

The 2024 United States presidential election in California was held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. [2] California voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. California has 54 electoral votes in the Electoral College, the most in the country. [3]

Contents

The most populous state in the union, California is considered a strong blue state, having voted Democratic in every presidential election since 1992. In these contests, it has supported Democratic candidates by double digits in each of them except for 2004, when John Kerry won it by 9.95 percentage points. It was widely expected that California voters would maintain this trend, particularly with Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee. Harris, a native of California, served as the state's Attorney General from 2011 to 2017 and later represented California in the U.S. Senate from 2017 to 2021 before assuming the vice presidency. She is the first Californian to be featured on a major party presidential ticket since Ronald Reagan in 1984.

Although Kamala Harris won in California by a margin of 20 percentage points, it represented a significant decrease compared to Joe Biden's 29-point victory in the state in 2020. This trend of diminished Democratic voter turnout was also evident in other traditionally Democratic strongholds, including Massachusetts, New York and Illinois. [4] Harris's performance in California was the worst for a Democratic candidate since 2004, failing to receive at least 60% of the vote in the state for the first time since then.

Primary elections

Democratic primary

The California Democratic primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. President Biden won all 424 pledged delegates with nearly 90% of the vote, the largest share of delegates awarded by any contest in the 2024 primaries.

Popular vote share by county
Biden
80-90%
>90% 2024 California Democratic presidential primary results map.svg
Popular vote share by county
  Biden
  •   80–90%
  •   >90%
California Democratic primary, March 5, 2024 [5] [6]
CandidateVotesPercentageActual delegate count
BoundUnboundTotal
Joe Biden (incumbent)3,207,68789.1%424424
Marianne Williamson 146,3564.1%
Dean Phillips 100,2842.8%
Armando Perez-Serrato43,1051.2%
Gabriel Cornejo41,3901.2%
"President" R. Boddie25,4550.7%
Stephen P. Lyons21,0620.6%
Eban Cambridge12,7580.3%
Total (including write-ins):3,598,126100.00%42473497

The electors of the Democratic Party are chosen by the candidates who received the most votes in the primary election in their respective congressional district. [7]

Republican primary

The California Republican primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. Former president Donald Trump was challenged by Nikki Haley, the only other major candidate remaining in the Republican primaries. Trump won the state in a landslide, defeating Haley by 60 points and earning all 169 delegates.

The state was the site of the second Republican primary debate, held at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library on September 27, 2023.

Popular vote share by county
Trump
60-70%
70-80%
80-90% 2024 California Republican presidential primary results map.svg
Popular vote share by county
  Trump
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
California Republican primary, March 5, 2024 [8] [9] [10]
CandidateVotesPercentageActual delegate count
BoundUnboundTotal
Donald Trump 1,962,90579.25%1690169
Nikki Haley 431,87617.44%000
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn)35,7171.44%000
Chris Christie (withdrawn)20,2100.82%000
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn)11,1130.45%000
Rachel Swift4,2530.17%000
David Stuckenberg3,9090.16%000
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn)3,5770.14%000
Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn)3,3360.13%000
Total:2,476,896100.00%1690169

The electors of the Republican Party are their nominees for the main offices of the State of California and for Senator at the last two elections as well as their leaders in the state legislature and party committee. [7]

Libertarian primary

Charles Ballay was the only candidate to qualify for the Libertarian Party primary ballot. [11] Chase Oliver later qualified as a write-in candidate. [12]

2024 California Libertarian primary [13]
CandidateVotesPercentage
Charles Ballay21,90698.6%
Chase Oliver (write-in)3131.4%
Total:22,219100.0%

Th electors of the Libertarian party were elected by the state party convention. [7]

Green primary

Jill Stein, the Green Party's nominee for president in 2012 and 2016, was the only candidate on the California primary ballot, although she was followed by three write-in candidates. [11] [12] Stein won the primary and earned all 59 of the state's delegates.

2024 California Green primary [13]
CandidateVotesPercentageDelegates
Jill Stein 15,80199.96%59
Matthew Pruden (write-in)30.02%
Jorge Zavala (write-in)30.02%
Davi (write-in)10.00%
Total:15,808100.0%59

Peace and Freedom primary

Peace and Freedom primary results by county:

Claudia De la Cruz
100%
80-85%
75-80%
70-75%
65-70%
60-65%
55-60%
50-55%
45-50%
40-45%
35-40%
Cornel West
100%
65-70%
60-65%
55-60%
50-55%
45-50%
40-45%
35-40%
De la Cruz-West tie
45-50%
40-45%
35-40%
De la Cruz-Sherman tie
50%
West-Sherman tie
35-40%
No votes
No votes 2024 California Peace and Freedom primary results map by county.svg
Peace and Freedom primary results by county:
  Claudia De la Cruz
  •   100%
      80–85%
      75–80%
      70–75%
      65–70%
      60–65%
      55–60%
      50–55%
      45–50%
      40–45%
      35–40%
  Cornel West
  •   100%
      65–70%
      60–65%
      55–60%
      50–55%
      45–50%
      40–45%
      35–40%
  De la Cruz-West tie
  •   45–50%
      40–45%
      35–40%
  De la Cruz-Sherman tie
  •   50%
  West-Sherman tie
  •   35–40%
  No votes
  •   No votes

Three candidates successfully achieved ballot access in the Peace and Freedom Party non-binding presidential primary: Claudia de la Cruz, the nominee for the Party for Socialism and Liberation; Cornel West, who is running an independent campaign after withdrawing from the Green nomination; and Jasmine Sherman. [14] The party's presidential nominee will be chosen by the state central committee in August. [15]

2024 California Peace and Freedom primary [13]
CandidateVotesPercentage
Claudia de la Cruz 6,43047.0%
Cornel West 5,45539.9%
Jasmine Sherman1,79513.1%
Total:13,680100.0%

American Independent Party

The sole candidate of the American Independent Party primary was James Bradley, who was simultaneously running for the U.S. Senate as a Republican in the blanket primary held on the same day. [11] [16] Andrew George Rummel also qualified as an official write-in candidate. [12]

2024 California American Independent primary [13]
CandidateVotesPercentage
James Bradley45,56599.96%
Andrew George Rummel (write-in)160.04%
Total:45,581100.0%

General election

Candidates

In California, six political parties have qualified for ballot access in the 2024 election. On August 29, 2024, California secretary of state Shirley Weber published the certified list of candidates for the general election: [17]

Weber's office published the list of write-in candidates on October 25, in which Peter Sonski was the only certified candidate listed, alongside his running mate Lauren Onak. [18]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [19] Solid DDecember 19, 2023
Inside Elections [20] Solid DApril 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball [21] Safe DJune 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill [22] Safe DDecember 14, 2023
CNalysis [23] Solid DDecember 30, 2023
CNN [24] Solid DJanuary 14, 2024
The Economist [25] Safe DJune 12, 2024
538 [26] Solid DJune 11, 2024
NBC News [27] Safe DOctober 6, 2024

Polling

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [c]
Margin
of error
Kamala
Harris
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Other /
Undecided
Research Co. [28] November 2–3, 2024450 (LV)± 4.6%64%32%4%
Competitive Edge Research [29] October 28–30, 2024517 (RV)± 4.3%53%38%8% [d]
UC Berkeley IGS [30] October 22–28, 20244,341 (LV)± 2.0%57%35%8%
ActiVote [31] October 7–27, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%63%37%
Rose Institute/YouGov [32] October 7–17, 20241,139 (RV)± 3.4%60%33%7% [e]
63% [f] 34%3%
1,139 (LV)63%34%3%
Emerson College [33] [A] October 12–14, 20241,000 (LV)± 3.0%59%35%6% [g]
61% [f] 37%2% [g]
ActiVote [34] September 22 – October 10, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%63.5%36.5%
ActiVote [35] August 22 – September 21, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%64%36%
Emerson College [36] September 3–5, 2024815 (LV)± 3.4%60%36%4%
61% [f] 38%1% [h]
ActiVote [37] August 2–19, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%65%35%
UC Berkeley IGS [38] July 31 – August 11, 20243,765 (LV)± 2.0%59%34%7%
July 21, 2024Kamala Harris declares her candidacy.
Emerson College/Inside California Elections [39] [B] November 11–14, 20231,000 (RV)± 3.0%47%38%15%

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [c]
Margin
of error
Kamala
Harris
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Cornel
West
Independent
Jill
Stein
Green
Chase
Oliver
Libertarian
Other /
Undecided
Cygnal (R) [40] October 27–30, 2024611 (LV)± 4.0%55%31%4%2%1%7% [i]
Public Policy Institute of California [41] October 7–15, 20241,137 (LV)± 3.7%59%33%3%1%0%4% [j]
UC Berkeley IGS [42] September 25 – October 1, 20243,045 (LV)± 2.5%57%35%2%1%1%0%4%
University of Southern California/CSU Long Beach/Cal Poly Pomona [43] September 12–25, 20241,685 (LV)± 2.4%58%36%2%2%0%2% [k]
Capitol Weekly [44] September 11–16, 20241,054 (LV)59%34%3%0%2%2% [i]
Capitol Weekly [45] August 23–26, 20243,154 (LV)58%36%4%0%2%
August 23, 2024Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump.
Capitol Weekly [46] August 13–15, 20241,738 (LV)57%37%5%0%1%
Capitol Weekly [47] July 25–27, 20241,904 (LV)59%35%5%0%2%
July 21, 2024Kamala Harris declares her candidacy.
Capitol Weekly [48] July 19–22, 20242,121 (LV)54%33%7%0%4%2% [i]
Capitol Weekly [49] July 12–14, 20241,044 (LV)54%35%7%0%3%2% [i]
Hypothetical polling with Joe Biden and Donald Trump

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [c]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Other /
Undecided
July 21, 2024Joe Biden withdraws from the race.
Public Policy Institute of California [50] June 24 – July 2, 20241,261 (LV)± 3.7%55%30%15% [l]
Public Policy Institute of California [51] May 23 – June 2, 20241,098 (LV)± 3.9%55%31%14% [m]
The Bullfinch Group [52] [C] April 16–23, 2024250 (RV)± 6.2%59%34%7%
John Zogby Strategies [53] [D] April 13–21, 2024740 (LV)56%38%6%
Public Policy Institute of California [54] March 19–25, 20241,089 (LV)± 3.9%54%31%14%
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University [55] February 29 – March 3, 2024740 (RV)54%36%10% [n]
692 (LV)56%37%7% [o]
Emerson College/Inside California Elections [56] [B] February 24–27, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%57%35%8%
UC Berkeley IGS [57] February 22–26, 20246,536 (LV)± 1.5%52%34%14%
Emerson College/Inside California Elections [58] [B] February 16–18, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%55%33%12%
Public Policy Institute of California [59] February 6–13, 20241,075 (LV)± 3.9%55%32%13%
Emerson College/Inside California Elections [60] [B] January 11–14, 20241,087 (RV)± 2.9%54%34%12%
UC Berkeley IGS [61] January 1–4, 20244,471 (LV)± 2.0%56%37%19%
Emerson College/Inside California Elections [39] [B] November 11–14, 20231,000 (RV)± 3.0%50%37%13%
Public Policy Institute of California [62] November 9–16, 20231,113 (LV)± 3.2%54%30%16%
UC Berkeley IGS [63] October 24–30, 20234,506 (LV)± 2.5%46%31%23%
Public Policy Institute of California [64] October 3–19, 20231,377 (LV)± 4.0%60%29%12%
Data Viewpoint [65] October 1, 2023533 (RV)± 4.3%67%33%
Public Policy Institute of California [66] August 25 – September 5, 20231,146 (LV)± 3.7%57%26%17% [p]
UC Berkeley IGS [67] August 24–29, 20236,030 (RV)± 2.0%51%31%18%
Public Policy Institute of California [68] June 7–29, 20231,089 (LV)± 3.8%57%31%12%
Emerson College/Inside California Elections [69] [B] June 4–7, 20231,056 (RV)± 2.9%54%32%14%
Public Policy Institute of California [70] May 17–24, 20231,062 (LV)± 3.9%58%25%17%
UC Berkeley/Los Angeles Times [71] February 14–20, 20237,512 (RV)± 2.0%57%27%16%
5,149 (LV)59%29%12%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [c]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Cornel
West
Independent
Jill
Stein
Green
Other /
Undecided
Capitol Weekly [44] September 11–16, 20241,054 (LV)51%34%4%0%3%8% [i]
Capitol Weekly [45] August 23–26, 20243,154 (LV)52%35%4%0%3%5% [i]
Capitol Weekly [46] August 13–15, 20241,738 (LV)51%36%6%2%1%5% [j]
July 21, 2024Joe Biden withdraws from the race.
Capitol Weekly [48] July 19–22, 20242,121 (LV)52%35%6%0%4%3% [q]
Capitol Weekly [49] July 12–14, 20241,044 (LV)51%33%6%0%5%5% [r]
The Bullfinch Group [52] [C] April 16–23, 2024250 (RV)± 6.2%48%28%12%2%2%8%
Emerson College/Inside California Elections [56] [B] February 24–27, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%51%32%6%2%1%8%
UC Berkeley IGS [57] February 22–26, 20246,536 (LV)± 1.5%40%28%11%3%2%16%
Emerson College/Inside California Elections [58] [B] February 16–18, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%49%31%8%1%1%10%
USC Dornsife/CSU Long Beach/Cal Poly Pomona [72] January 21–29, 20241,416 (LV)± 2.6%53%25%7%3%1%9% [s]
Emerson College/Inside California Elections [60] [B] January 11–14, 20241,087 (RV)± 2.9%47%32%6%1%1%13%
UC Berkeley IGS [61] January 1–4, 20244,471 (LV)± 2.0%47%31%7%2%2%11%
Emerson College/Inside California Elections [39] [B] November 11–14, 20231,000 (RV)± 3.0%43%31%8%1%2%15%
UC Berkeley IGS [63] October 24–30, 20234,506 (LV)± 2.5%43%29%9%4%15%
Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [c]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies [53] [D] April 13–21, 2024740 (LV)51%40%9%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [c]
Margin
of error
Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Donald
Trump
Republican
Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies [53] [D] April 13–21, 2024740 (LV)47%35%18%

Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [c]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Ron
DeSantis
Republican
Other /
Undecided
Emerson College/Inside California Elections [69] [B] June 4–7, 20231,056 (RV)± 2.9%54%28%18%
UC Berkeley/Los Angeles Times [71] February 14–20, 20237,512 (RV)± 2.0%54%31%15%
5,149 (LV)56%34%10%

Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [c]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Nikki
Haley
Republican
Other /
Undecided
Data Viewpoint [65] October 1, 2023533 (RV)± 4.3%58%42%

Gavin Newsom vs. Donald Trump

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [c]
Margin
of error
Gavin
Newsom
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Other /
Undecided
Emerson College/Inside California Elections [39] [B] November 11–14, 20231,000 (RV)± 3.0%53%35%13%

Gavin Newsom vs. Ron DeSantis

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [c]
Margin
of error
Gavin
Newsom
Democratic
Ron
DeSantis
Republican
Other /
Undecided
Probolsky Research [73] August 4–9, 2022900 (LV)± 3.3%55%38%7%

Results

2024 California Presidential County Swings.svg
2024 California Presidential County Flips.svg
2024 United States presidential election in California [74]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic 9,276,179 58.47% Decrease2.svg 5.01%
Republican 6,081,69738.33%Increase2.svg 4.01%
American Independent
197,6451.25%Increase2.svg 0.91%
Green 167,8141.06%Increase2.svg 0.60%
Peace and Freedom
72,5390.46%Increase2.svg 0.17%
Libertarian 66,6620.42%Decrease2.svg 0.65%
American Solidarity
2,9390.02%Increase2.svg 0.01%
Total votes15,865,475 100.00% N/A

By county

County [75] Kamala Harris
Democratic
Donald Trump
Republican
Various candidates
Other parties
MarginTotal votes cast
# %# %# %# %
Alameda 499,55174.57%140,78921.02%29,5674.41%358,76253.55%669,907
Alpine 47964.91%24332.93%162.17%23631.98%738
Amador 7,78334.74%14,01862.57%6022.69%-6,235-27.83%22,403
Butte 44,22846.77%47,17949.90%3,1493.33%-2,951-3.13%94,556
Calaveras 9,18134.67%16,62562.78%6742.55%-7,444-28.11%26,480
Colusa 2,43134.62%4,41462.87%1762.51%-1,983-28.25%7,021
Contra Costa 356,00867.30%155,30829.36%17,6713.34%200,70037.94%528,987
Del Norte 4,26640.38%5,99956.78%3002.84%-1,733-16.40%10,565
El Dorado 47,70342.63%61,10954.61%3,0962.77%-13,406-11.98%111,908
Fresno 151,62846.50%165,92450.89%8,4972.61%-14,296-4.39%326,049
Glenn 3,26031.22%6,90466.12%2782.66%-3,644-34.90%10,442
Humboldt 39,80061.96%21,55933.56%2,8734.47%18,24128.40%64,232
Imperial 26,08348.27%26,54649.12%1,4092.61%-463-0.85%54,038
Inyo 4,20146.92%4,46849.91%2843.17%-267-2.99%8,953
Kern 108,24138.21%167,87959.26%7,1642.53%-59,638-21.05%283,284
Kings 15,51937.39%25,07460.41%9152.20%-9,555-23.02%41,508
Lake 12,79447.81%13,16149.18%8063.01%-367-1.37%26,761
Lassen 2,47821.79%8,61975.80%2742.41%-6,141-54.01%11,371
Los Angeles 2,417,10964.82%1,189,86231.91%122,1183.27%1,227,24732.91%3,729,089
Madera 20,98138.40%32,34459.20%1,3072.39%-11,363-20.80%54,632
Marin 116,15280.59%24,05416.69%3,9232.72%92,09863.90%144,129
Mariposa 3,62238.09%5,62559.15%2622.76%-2,003-21.06%9,509
Mendocino 24,04961.32%13,52834.49%1,6424.19%10,52126.83%39,219
Merced 40,19046.51%43,95550.87%2,2662.62%-3,765-4.36%86,411
Modoc 1,00825.10%2,88471.81%1243.09%-1,876-46.71%4,016
Mono 3,52258.08%2,29437.83%2484.09%1,22820.25%6,064
Monterey 93,06063.41%49,22633.54%4,4683.04%43,83429.87%146,754
Napa 43,21265.91%20,35731.05%1,9923.04%22,85534.86%65,561
Nevada 33,78454.36%26,17742.12%2,1833.51%7,60712.24%62,144
Orange 691,73149.72%654,81547.06%44,7613.22%36,9162.66%1,391,307
Placer 103,95844.26%123,94152.77%6,9722.97%-19,983-8.51%234,871
Plumas 4,02039.92%5,72556.85%3253.23%-1,705-16.93%10,070
Riverside 451,78248.04%463,67749.30%25,0512.66%-11,895-1.26%940,510
Sacramento 381,56458.10%252,14038.39%23,0433.51%129,42419.71%656,747
San Benito 15,17954.89%11,70242.32%7712.79%3,47712.57%27,652
San Bernardino 362,11447.53%378,41649.67%21,3162.80%-16,302-2.14%761,846
San Diego 841,37256.93%593,27040.14%43,3862.94%248,10216.79%1,478,028
San Francisco 323,71980.33%62,59415.53%16,6844.14%261,12564.80%402,997
San Joaquin 126,64748.03%128,99648.92%8,0663.06%-2,349-0.89%263,709
San Luis Obispo 81,31453.92%64,93243.05%4,5663.03%16,38210.87%150,812
San Mateo 242,95773.50%76,61623.18%10,9923.33%166,34150.32%330,565
Santa Barbara 114,14961.78%64,87035.11%5,7623.12%49,27926.67%184,781
Santa Clara 510,74468.04%210,92428.10%28,9383.86%299,82039.94%750,606
Santa Cruz 100,99875.28%27,97820.85%5,1793.86%73,02054.43%134,155
Shasta 27,13030.51%59,53966.96%2,2502.53%-32,409-36.45%88,919
Sierra 64136.52%1,06660.74%482.74%-425-24.22%1,755
Siskiyou 8,32938.74%12,46157.96%7083.29%-4,132-19.22%21,498
Solano 113,99760.04%70,34537.05%5,5412.92%43,65222.99%189,883
Sonoma 179,60071.42%63,42625.22%8,4393.36%116,17446.20%251,465
Stanislaus 85,34743.21%106,98654.16%5,1922.63%-21,639-10.95%197,525
Sutter 13,01633.09%25,37264.50%9512.42%-12,356-31.41%39,339
Tehama 7,41527.94%18,50369.73%6182.33%-11,088-41.79%26,536
Trinity 2,44943.38%2,97952.76%2183.86%-530-9.38%5,646
Tulare 53,22138.48%81,85459.18%3,2342.34%-28,633-20.70%138,309
Tuolumne 10,90937.86%17,21059.72%6972.42%-6,301-21.86%28,816
Ventura 217,42456.08%158,90140.99%11,3792.93%58,52315.09%387,704
Yolo 61,40566.30%27,84430.06%3,3723.64%33,56136.24%92,621
Yuba 10,72535.66%18,49161.49%8562.85%-7,766-25.83%30,072
Total9,276,17958.47%6,081,69738.33%507,5993.20%3,194,48220.14%15,865,475
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Harris won 41 of 52 congressional districts, with the remaining 11 going to Trump, including two that elected Democrats. [76]

DistrictHarrisTrumpRepresentative
1st 36%61% Doug LaMalfa
2nd 71%26% Jared Huffman
3rd 47%50% Kevin Kiley
4th 64%33% Mike Thompson
5th 40%58% Tom McClintock
6th 55%41% Ami Bera
7th 63%33% Doris Matsui
8th 70%27% John Garamendi
9th 48%49% Josh Harder
10th 65%31% Mark DeSaulnier
11th 82%14% Nancy Pelosi
12th 85%11% Barbara Lee (118th Congress)
Lateefah Simon (119th Congress)
13th 46%51% John Duarte (118th Congress)
Adam Gray (119th Congress)
14th 66%30% Eric Swalwell
15th 72%24% Kevin Mullin
16th 72%24% Anna Eshoo (118th Congress)
Sam Liccardo (119th Congress)
17th 67%29% Ro Khanna
18th 63%34% Zoe Lofgren
19th 65%31% Jimmy Panetta
20th 34%64% Vince Fong
21st 51%47% Jim Costa
22nd 46%52% David Valadao
23rd 40%57% Jay Obernolte
24th 61%36% Salud Carbajal
25th 50%48% Raul Ruiz
26th 55%42% Julia Brownley
27th 50%47% Mike Garcia (118th Congress)
George Whitesides (119th Congress)
28th 62%35% Judy Chu
29th 66%31% Tony Cárdenas (118th Congress)
Luz Rivas (119th Congress)
30th 69%28% Adam Schiff (118th Congress)
Laura Friedman (119th Congress)
31st 57%40% Grace Napolitano (118th Congress)
Gil Cisneros (119th Congress)
32nd 64%33% Brad Sherman
33rd 53%44% Pete Aguilar
34th 73%22% Jimmy Gomez
35th 54%43% Norma Torres
36th 68%29% Ted Lieu
37th 79%18% Sydney Kamlager-Dove
38th 56%40% Linda Sánchez
39th 53%44% Mark Takano
40th 47%49% Young Kim
41st 46%52% Ken Calvert
42nd 64%32% Robert Garcia
43rd 73%24% Maxine Waters
44th 65%32% Nanette Barragán
45th 49%48% Michelle Steel (118th Congress)
Derek Tran (119th Congress)
46th 57%40% Lou Correa
47th 50%46% Katie Porter (118th Congress)
Dave Min (119th Congress)
48th 41%56% Darrell Issa
49th 52%45% Mike Levin
50th 63%34% Scott Peters
51st 60%37% Sara Jacobs
52nd 59%38% Juan Vargas

Analysis

Trump flipped 10 counties that were won by Biden in 2020: Butte, Fresno, Imperial, Inyo, Lake, Merced, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Joaquin, and Stanislaus. Of these 10, all except Butte and Inyo were also won by Hillary Clinton in 2016. Trump’s wins in Fresno, Merced, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Joaquin, and Stanislaus marked the first time they voted for a Republican since George W. Bush in 2004, although all are fairly consistently Republican at the state level. Trump's win in Imperial (which is over 80% Hispanic) marked the first time it voted Republican since George H.W. Bush in 1988, while his win in Lake marked the first time it voted Republican since Ronald Reagan in 1984. Trump was also the first Republican since George W. Bush in 2004 to win at least 30% in Los Angeles County. Trump managed to flip four congressional districts, two of which split tickets and elected Democrats. Trump's gains with Hispanics allowed him to cross 40% in Southern California for the first time since 2004 as well as trended the region to the right of the state. Trump’s gains among Hispanics in California also helped improve his margins in the state, also allowing him to carry 9 of the state's 11 Hispanic majority counties. [77] Trump also gained ground with Asian American voters in California, with Asian Americans being almost entirely responsible for the rightward shift in areas lacking significant Hispanic populations, such as San Francisco. [78] In majority-Chinese Arcadia and Temple City, both communities in the San Gabriel Valley, Harris's margin dropped by 10% and 13% respectively. [79] Trump also gained in mostly Filipino Daly City by 15%. [80] Trump became the first Republican since 2004 to win the Inland Empire, California's third largest metropolitan area and a blue collar majority-Hispanic region that had been economically struggling. [81]

Trump achieved significant gains in Los Angeles, receiving 27% of the vote, the highest for a Republican candidate in the city since 1988. This was a marked improvement from 2020, when Trump garnered only 21%, and 2016, when he received just 16% of the vote in the city. [82] According to the New York Times 2024 precinct map, Trump's substantial gains in Los Angeles were largely attributed to increased support in Hispanic and Asian neighborhoods, although he made gains in nearly every single precinct in the city regardless. [83] These communities, which have traditionally leaned Democratic, showed growing support for Trump, especially in areas where economic concerns, cultural values, and opposition to some policies of the Democratic Party resonated with voters. Donald Trump also saw an increase in Latino support in California, garnering 38% of the Latino vote, compared to 29% in the 2020 election, according to Fox News voter analysis. [84] Trump won 42% of Latino Males compared to Harris's 54% and Trump received 34% of Latina Females compared to Harris's 63%—both major improvements from 2020.

Despite these results, Harris was able to hold onto historically Republican Orange County by a narrow margin. Harris also won every California county on the West Coast except for Del Norte County. She is also the first Democrat since John Kerry to win California despite carrying a minority of counties, winning 25 out of 58. Whereas Harris underperformed Biden's 2020 total by nearly 2 million, Trump narrowly surpassed his vote total from 2020, solidifying his base of support in the state at just over 6 million votes; this marked his third-highest vote total from any state in the country in 2024, only behind 6.4 million in Texas and 6.1 million in Florida. The swing in the presidential contest to Republicans in California was accompanied by a swath of conservative down-ballot measure results, as state voters endorsed increasing penalties for certain theft and drug crimes and restricting spending of prescription drug revenues by certain health care providers. Furthermore, Californians rejected lowering the vote needed to approve bonds for housing and infrastructure, eliminating the constitutional provision allowing slavery and involuntary servitude (i.e., prison labor), raising the minimum wage to $18/hour, and repealing the ban (Costa-Hawkins Rental Housing Act of 1995) on local rent controls. Republican Senate candidate Steve Garvey was one of the few Republican senate candidates that outran Donald Trump, possibly owing to his large celebrity status within the state.

See also

Notes

  1. 1 2 Kennedy suspended his campaign on August 23, after the deadline for ballot access had passed, and thus remained on the ballot.
  2. 1 2 De la Cruz and Garcia are affiliated with the Party for Socialism and Liberation on a national level.
  3. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  4. "Someone else" with 4%
  5. "Other" with 7%
  6. 1 2 3 With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  7. 1 2 "Someone else" with 2%
  8. "Someone else" with 1%
  9. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Claudia De la Cruz (PSL) with 2%
  10. 1 2 Claudia De la Cruz (PSL) with 1%
  11. Claudia De la Cruz (PSL) with 0%
  12. "Someone else" with 11%
  13. "Someone else" with 13%
  14. "Another candidate" with 6%
  15. "Another candidate" with 4%
  16. "Someone else" with 12%; "Would not vote" with 2%
  17. Claudia De la Cruz (PSL) with 3%
  18. Claudia De la Cruz (PSL) with 4%
  19. Lars Mapstead (L) with 0%
  1. Poll sponsored by Inside CA Politics and The Hill
  2. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Poll sponsored by Nexstar Media Group
  3. 1 2 Poll sponsored by The Independent Center
  4. 1 2 3 Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign

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