2024 United States presidential election in California

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2024 United States presidential election in California
Flag of California.svg
←  2020 November 5, 20242028 →
  Joe Biden presidential portrait (cropped).jpg Donald Trump 2023 (cropped).jpg
Nominee Joe Biden
(presumptive)		 Donald Trump
(presumptive)
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Delaware Florida
Running mate Kamala Harris
(presumptive)		 TBA
Incumbent President

Joe Biden
Democratic



The 2024 United States presidential election in California is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. [1] California voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of California has 54 electoral votes in the Electoral College. [2]

The most populous state in the Union as well as one of the most progressive, California has voted Democratic in every presidential election starting in 1992, doing so by double digits in each of them but 2004 when John Kerry won it by 9.95%. Thus, California is predicted to go safely for incumbent Democrat Joe Biden in 2024, with vice president and California native Kamala Harris as his running mate. [3]

Primary elections

Democratic primary

The California Democratic primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. President Biden won all 424 pledged delegates with nearly 90% of the vote, the largest share of delegates awarded by any contest in the 2024 primaries.

Popular vote share by county .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} Biden 70-80% 80-90% >90% 2024 California Democratic presidential primary results map.svg
Popular vote share by county
  Biden
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  •   >90%
California Democratic primary, March 5, 2024
CandidateVotesPercentageActual delegate count
BoundUnboundTotal
Joe Biden (incumbent)3,207,68789.1%424424
Marianne Williamson 146,3564.1%
Dean Phillips 100,2842.8%
Armando Perez-Serrato43,1051.2%
Gabriel Cornejo41,3901.2%
"President" R. Boddie25,4550.7%
Stephen P. Lyons21,0620.6%
Eban Cambridge12,7580.3%
Total (including write-ins):3,598,126100.00%42473497
Source: [4] [5]

Republican primary

The California Republican primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. Former president Donald Trump was challenged by Nikki Haley, the only other major candidate remaining in the Republican primaries. Trump won the state in a Landslide, defeating Haley by 60 points and earning all 169 delegates.

The state was the site of the second Republican primary debate, held at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library on September 27, 2023.

Popular vote share by county Trump 60-70% 70-80% 80-90% 2024 California Republican presidential primary results map.svg
Popular vote share by county
  Trump
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
California Republican primary, March 5, 2024
CandidateVotesPercentageActual delegate count
BoundUnboundTotal
Donald Trump 1,946,68079.2%169169
Nikki Haley 429,93017.5%
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn)35,4921.4%
Chris Christie (withdrawn)20,1350.8%
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn)11,0250.4%
Rachel Swift4,2140.2%
David Stuckenberg3,8840.2%
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn)3,5520.1%
Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn)3,3200.1%
Total:2,458,232100.0%169169
Source: [6] [7]

Libertarian primary

Charles Ballay was the only candidate to qualify for the Libertarian Party primary ballot. [8] Chase Oliver later qualified as a write-in candidate. [9]

2024 California Libertarian primary [10]
CandidateVotesPercentage
Charles Ballay21,90698.6%
Chase Oliver (write-in)3131.4%
Total:22,219100.0%

Green primary

Jill Stein, the Green Party's nominee for president in 2012 and 2016, was the only candidate on the California primary ballot, although she was followed by three write-in candidates. [8] [9] Stein won the primary and earned all 59 of the state's delegates.

2024 California Green primary [10]
CandidateVotesPercentageDelegates
Jill Stein 15,80199.96%59
Matthew Pruden (write-in)30.02%
Jorge Zavala (write-in)30.02%
Davi (write-in)10.00%
Total:15,808100.0%59

Peace and Freedom primary

Three candidates successfully achieved ballot access in the Peace and Freedom Party non-binding presidential primary: Claudia de la Cruz, the nominee for the Party for Socialism and Liberation; Cornel West, who is running an independent campaign after withdrawing from the Green nomination; and Jasmine Sherman. [11] The party's presidential nominee will be chosen by the state central committee in August. [12]

2024 California Peace and Freedom primary [10]
CandidateVotesPercentage
Claudia de la Cruz 6,43047.0%
Cornel West 5,45539.9%
Jasmine Sherman1,79513.1%
Total:13,680100.0%

American Independent Party

The sole candidate of the American Independent Party primary was James Bradley, who was simultaneously running for U.S. Senator as a Republican in the blanket primary held on the same day. [8] [13] Andrew George Rummel also qualified as an official write-in candidate. [9]

2024 California American Independent primary [10]
CandidateVotesPercentage
James Bradley45,56599.96%
Andrew George Rummel (write-in)160.04%
Total:45,581100.0%

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [14] Solid DDecember 19, 2023
Inside Elections [15] Solid DApril 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball [16] Solid DJune 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill [17] Solid DDecember 14, 2023
CNalysis [18] Solid DDecember 30, 2023
CNN [19] Solid DJanuary 14, 2024

Polling

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Donald
Trump
Republican		Other /
Undecided
Public Policy Institute of California March 19–25, 20241,089 (LV)± 3.9%54%31%14%
Emerson College/Inside California Elections [upper-alpha 1] February 24–27, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%57%35%8%
UC Berkeley IGS February 22–26, 20246,536 (LV)± 1.5%52%34%14%
Emerson College/Inside California Elections [upper-alpha 1] February 16–18, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%55%33%12%
Public Policy Institute of California February 6–14, 20241,075 (LV)± 3.9%55%32%13%
Emerson College/Inside California Elections [upper-alpha 1] January 11–14, 20241,087 (RV)± 2.9%54%34%12%
UC Berkeley IGS January 1–4, 20244,471 (LV)± 2.0%56%37%19%
Emerson College/Inside California Elections [upper-alpha 1] November 11–14, 20231,000 (RV)± 3.0%50%37%13%
Public Policy Institute of California November 9–16, 20231,113 (LV)± 3.2%54%30%16%
UC Berkeley IGS October 24–30, 20234,506 (LV)± 2.5%46%31%23%
Public Policy Institute of California October 3–19, 20231,377 (LV)± 4.0%60%29%12%
Data Viewpoint October 1, 2023533 (RV)± 4.3%67%33%–
Public Policy Institute of California August 25 – September 5, 20231,146 (LV)± 3.7%57%26%17%
UC Berkeley IGS August 24–29, 20236,030 (RV)± 2.0%51%31%18%
Public Policy Institute of California June 7–29, 20231,089 (LV)± 3.8%57%31%12%
Public Policy Institute of California May 17–24, 20231,062 (LV)± 3.9%58%25%17%
UC Berkeley/Los Angeles Times February 14–20, 20235,149 (LV)± 2.0%59%29%12%
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Donald
Trump
Republican		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent		Cornel
West
Independent		Jill
Stein
Green		Other /
Undecided
Emerson College/Inside California Elections [upper-alpha 1] February 24–27, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%51%32%6%2%1%8%
UC Berkeley IGS February 22–26, 20246,536 (LV)± 1.5%40%28%11%3%2%16%
Emerson College/Inside California Elections [upper-alpha 1] February 16–18, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%49%31%8%1%1%10%
Emerson College/Inside California Elections [upper-alpha 1] January 11–14, 20241,087 (RV)± 2.9%47%32%6%1%1%13%
UC Berkeley IGS January 1–4, 20244,471 (LV)± 2.0%47%31%7%2%2%11%
Emerson College/Inside California Elections [upper-alpha 1] November 11–14, 20231,000 (RV)± 3.0%43%31%8%1%2%15%
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Donald
Trump
Republican		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent		Cornel
West
Independent		Other /
Undecided
UC Berkeley IGS October 24–30, 20234,506 (LV)± 2.5%43%29%9%4%15%
Hypothetical polling
Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Nikki
Haley
Republican		Other /
Undecided
Data Viewpoint October 1, 2023533 (RV)± 4.3%58%42%–
Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Ron
DeSantis
Republican		Other /
Undecided
UC Berkeley/Los Angeles Times February 14–20, 20235,149 (LV)± 2.0%56%34%10%
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Kamala
Harris
Democratic		Donald
Trump
Republican		Other /
Undecided
Emerson College/Inside California Elections [upper-alpha 1] November 11–14, 20231,000 (RV)± 3.0%47%38%15%
Gavin Newsom vs. Donald Trump
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Gavin
Newsom
Democratic		Donald
Trump
Republican		Other /
Undecided
Emerson College/Inside California Elections [upper-alpha 1] November 11–14, 20231,000 (RV)± 3.0%53%35%13%
Gavin Newsom vs. Ron DeSantis
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Gavin
Newsom
Democratic		Ron
DeSantis
Republican		Other /
Undecided
Probolsky Research August 4–9, 2022900 (LV)± 3.3%55%38%7%

See also

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Poll sponsored by Nexstar Media

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References

  1. ↑ Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent . Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  2. ↑ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration . Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  3. ↑ "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved January 30, 2024.
  4. ↑ "Certified List of Presidential Candidates for voter-nominated offices for the March 5, 2024, presidential primary election" (PDF). Secretary of State of California . December 28, 2023. Retrieved December 29, 2023.
  5. ↑ "California Presidential Primary". Associated Press . March 5, 2024. Retrieved April 5, 2024.
  6. ↑ "Certified List of Presidential Candidates for voter-nominated offices for the March 5, 2024, presidential primary election" (PDF). Secretary of State of California . December 28, 2023. Retrieved December 29, 2023.
  7. ↑ "California Presidential Primary - Republican". California Secretary of State . March 13, 2024. Archived from the original on March 13, 2024. Retrieved March 13, 2024.
  8. 1 2 3 "Certified List of Candidates" (PDF). California Secretary of State. December 28, 2023. Retrieved December 29, 2023.
  9. 1 2 3 "Certified List of Presidential Write-In Candidates" (PDF). Office of the Secretary of State of California. February 23, 2024. Retrieved March 9, 2024.
  10. 1 2 3 4 "STATEMENT OF VOTE MARCH 5, 2024, PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY RESULTS" (PDF). California Secretary of State. April 12, 2024. Retrieved April 12, 2024.
  11. ↑ "Certified List of Presidential Candidates for voter-nominated offices for the March 5, 2024, presidential primary election" (PDF). Secretary of State of California . December 28, 2023. Retrieved December 29, 2023.
  12. ↑ Winger, Richard (December 3, 2023). "Peace & Freedom Presidential Primary Ballot Will Contain Three Names" . Retrieved December 3, 2023.
  13. ↑ Frisk, Garrett (September 22, 2023). "California Senate Candidate Roundup: September 22, 2023". Diamond Eye Candidate Report. Retrieved September 22, 2023.
  14. ↑ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  15. ↑ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  16. ↑ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  17. ↑ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  18. ↑ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  19. ↑ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN . Retrieved January 14, 2024.
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