2016 California Democratic presidential primary

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2016 California Democratic presidential primary
Flag of California.svg
  2008 June 7, 2016 (2016-06-07) 2020  
  Hillary Clinton by Gage Skidmore 2.jpg Bernie Sanders September 2015 cropped.jpg
Candidate Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders
Home state New York Vermont
Delegate count254221
Popular vote2,745,302 [1] 2,381,722
Percentage53.07%46.04%

2016 California Democratic Presidential Primary election by county.svg
Election results by county.

The 2016 California Democratic presidential primary was held on June 7 in the U.S. state of California as one of the Democratic Party's primaries ahead of the 2016 presidential election.

Contents

The Democratic Party's primaries in Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico and South Dakota were held the same day, as were Republican primaries in the same five states. Additionally, the Democratic Party held North Dakota caucuses the same day.

Opinion polling

Poll sourceDate1st2ndOther
California Secretary of State Primary results June 7, 2016Hillary Clinton
53.1%
Bernie Sanders
46.0%
Others
0.9%
CBS News/YouGov [2]

Margin of error: ±5.0%
Sample size: 674

May 31-June 3, 2016Hillary Clinton
49%
Bernie Sanders
47%
Others / Undecided 4%
American Research Group [3]

Margin of error: ± 5%
Sample size: 400

May 31 –
June 2, 2016
Hillary Clinton
48%
Bernie Sanders
47%
Others / Undecided
5%
NBC/WSJ/Marist [4]

Margin of error: ±4.2%
Sample size: 557

May 29–31, 2016Hillary Clinton
49%
Bernie Sanders
47%
Others / Undecided 4%
Field [5]

Margin of error: ±4.1%
Sample size: 571

May 26–31, 2016Hillary Clinton
45%
Bernie Sanders
43%
Others / Undecided 12%
USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times [6]

Margin of error: ± 2.9%
Sample size: 1,500

May 19–31, 2016Hillary Clinton
49%
Bernie Sanders
39%
Others / Undecided
13%
SurveyUSA [7]

Margin of error: ±%
Sample size: 803

May 19–22, 2016Hillary Clinton
57%
Bernie Sanders
39%
Undecided 4%
PPIC [8]

Margin of error: ±5.7%
Sample size: 552

May 13–22, 2016Hillary Clinton
46%
Bernie Sanders
44%
Undecided 10%
Hoover Institution State Poll [9]

Margin of error: ±3.47%
Sample size: 1,700

May 4–16, 2016Hillary Clinton
51%
Bernie Sanders
38%
Others / Undecided
11%
Sextant (D)/Capitol Weekly [10]

Margin of error: ±2.3%
Sample size: 1,617

April 28-May 1, 2016Hillary Clinton
49%
Bernie Sanders
39%
Others / Undecided
12%
SurveyUSA/KABC/SCNG [11]

Margin of error: ± %
Sample size: 826

April 27–30, 2016Hillary Clinton
57%
Bernie Sanders
38%
Others / Undecided
6%
FOX News [12]

Margin of error: ± 4%
Sample size: 623

April 18–21, 2016Hillary Clinton
48%
Bernie Sanders
46%
Others / Undecided
6%
CBS News/YouGov [13]

Margin of error: ± 4.5%
Sample size: 1,124

April 13–15, 2016Hillary Clinton
52%
Bernie Sanders
40%
Others / Undecided
8%
Gravis Marketing [14]

Margin of error: ± 3.4%
Sample size: 846

April 7–10, 2016Hillary Clinton
47%
Bernie Sanders
41%
Others / Undecided
12%
Field [15]

Margin of error: ± 4.0%
Sample size: 584

March 24 - April 4, 2016Hillary Clinton
47%
Bernie Sanders
41%
Others / Undecided
12%
SurveyUSA [16]

Margin of error: ± 3.6%
Sample size: 767

March 30 - April 3, 2016Hillary Clinton
53%
Bernie Sanders
39%
Others / Undecided
8%
USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times [17]

Margin of error: ± 3.7%
Sample size: 832

March 16–23, 2016Hillary Clinton
47%
Bernie Sanders
36%
Others / Undecided
17%
PPIC [18]

Margin of error: ± 6.2%
Sample size: 529

March 6–15, 2016Hillary Clinton
48%
Bernie Sanders
41%
Others / Undecided
11%
Field Poll [19]

Margin of error: ± 5.6%
Sample Size: 329

January 6, 2016Hillary Clinton
46%
Bernie Sanders
35%
Martin O'Malley 1%
Undecided 18%
Polls in 2015
Poll sourceDate1st2ndOther
Field Poll [20]

Margin of error: ± 5.0%
Sample size: 391

September 17 – October 4, 2015Hillary Clinton
47%
Bernie Sanders
35%
Martin O'Malley 1%
Jim Webb 1%
Lincoln Chafee 0%
Other 2%
Undecided 14%
Hillary Clinton
40%
Bernie Sanders
31%
Joe Biden 15%
Martin O'Malley 1%
Lincoln Chafee 0%
Jim Webb 1%
Other 2%
Undecided 12%
USC/LA Times [21]

Margin of error: ± 3.6%
Sample size: ?

August 29 – September 8, 2015Hillary Clinton
42%
Bernie Sanders
26%
Other/NA 16%
Undecided 16%
Hillary Clinton
39%
Bernie Sanders
23%
Joe Biden 11%
Other/NA 11%
Undecided 16%
Field Poll [22]

Margin of error: ± 7.0%
Sample size: 356

April 23 – May 16, 2015Hillary Clinton
53%
Elizabeth Warren
13%
Joe Biden 6%
Bernie Sanders 5%
Jim Webb 1%
Martin O'Malley 0%
Lincoln Chafee 0%
Undecided/other 22%
Emerson College [23]

Margin of error: ± ?
Sample size: 487

April 2–8, 2015Hillary Clinton
56%
Elizabeth Warren
11%
Joe Biden 8%
Bernie Sanders 3%
Martin O'Malley 2%
Jim Webb 1%
Andrew Cuomo 0%
Other 2%
Undecided 17%
Field Poll [24]

Margin of error: ± 5%
Sample size: 425

January 26 – February 16, 2015Hillary Clinton
59%
Elizabeth Warren
17%
Joe Biden 9%
Bernie Sanders 6%
Jim Webb 2%
Others <0.5%
Undecided 7%

Results

Sanders won eight Congressional districts, including the Latino-heavy 34th district in Los Angeles, represented by Clinton supporter Rep. Xavier Becerra. In the 28th district the candidates were separated by just 67 votes, which covers the Los Angeles suburbs of Glendale and Burbank, and is represented by Rep. Adam Schiff. [25]

e    d   2016 Democratic Party's presidential nominating process in California
– Summary of results –
CandidatePopular voteEstimated delegates
CountPercentagePledgedUnpledgedTotal
Hillary Clinton 2,745,30253.07%25466320
Bernie Sanders 2,381,72246.04%2210221
Willie Wilson 12,0140.23%
Michael Steinberg10,8800.21%
Rocky De La Fuente 8,4530.16%
Henry Hewes 7,7430.15%
Keith Judd 7,2010.14%
Write-in230.00%
Uncommitted1010
Total5,173,338100%47576551
Source: California Secretary of State - Presidential Primary Election Statement of Votes The Green Papers

Results by county

County [26] Clinton %Sanders %Others%TotalsTurnout (%)Margin%
Alameda 164,88951.5%153,95548.0%1,5770.5%320,42110,9343.4%
Alpine 11344.8%13754.4%20.8%25224-9.5%
Amador 2,51650.4%2,38647.8%881.8%4,9901302.6%
Butte 11,76637.0%19,73962.0%3151.0%31,8207,973-25.1%
Calaveras 2,97149.5%2,91448.5%1232.0%6,008570.9%
Colusa 83549.3%80947.8%482.8%1,692261.5%
Contra Costa 103,33356.7%77,86242.7%1,0820.6%182,27725,47114.0%
Del Norte 1,11940.4%1,59857.6%552.0%2,772479-17.3%
El Dorado 12,49249.1%12,62049.6%3131.2%25,425128-0.5%
Fresno 45,43656.0%34,66342.7%9981.2%81,09710,77313.3%
Glenn 91146.8%1,00351.5%341.7%1,94892-4.7%
Humboldt 8,13528.7%19,92870.4%2400.8%28,30311,793-41.7%
Imperial 9,84365.0%5,11133.7%1901.3%15,1444,73231.2%
Inyo 1,00142.5%1,31355.7%441.9%2,358312-13.2%
Kern 28,80654.1%23,37443.9%1,0542.0%53,2345,43210.2%
Kings 4,15057.8%2,86939.9%1652.3%7,1841,28117.8%
Lake 3,98842.7%5,19555.7%1481.6%9,3311,207-12.9%
Lassen 81242.6%1,02353.7%703.7%1,905211-11.1%
Los Angeles 780,01354.4%639,88644.6%14,7681.0%1,434,667140,1279.8%
Madera 5,80853.1%4,85244.4%2792.6%10,9399568.7%
Marin 43,28356.4%33,21443.3%2600.3%76,75710,06913.1%
Mariposa 1,10244.1%1,35554.2%441.8%2,501253-10.1%
Mendocino 6,04832.8%12,25966.5%1190.6%18,4266,211-33.7%
Merced 10,83953.0%9,27345.3%3391.7%20,4511,5667.7%
Modoc 28142.3%34952.5%355.3%66568-10.2%
Mono 79943.3%1,03856.2%100.5%1,847239-12.9%
Monterey 29,73052.8%26,07346.3%5130.9%56,3163,6576.5%
Napa 13,58353.4%11,68245.9%1900.7%25,4551,9017.5%
Nevada 8,17536.9%13,82762.4%1480.7%22,1505,652-25.5%
Orange 171,59351.9%156,23547.3%2,7670.8%330,59515,3584.6%
Placer 25,24954.1%20,91644.8%4901.1%46,6554,3339.3%
Plumas 1,21144.1%1,47553.7%622.3%2,748264-9.6%
Riverside 112,52656.1%85,91842.8%2,1971.1%200,64126,60813.3%
Sacramento 109,89854.6%89,42844.4%1,9331.0%201,25920,47010.2%
San Benito 4,11254.3%3,38044.6%831.1%7,5757329.7%
San Bernardino 96,07654.6%77,70644.2%2,1941.2%175,97618,37010.4%
San Diego 215,65551.6%199,71647.7%2,9090.7%418,28015,9393.8%
San Francisco 116,35953.6%99,59445.9%9610.4%216,91416,7657.7%
San Joaquin 38,21256.5%28,52342.2%8791.3%67,6149,68914.3%
San Luis Obispo 21,63746.7%24,37952.6%3460.7%46,3622,742-5.9%
San Mateo 79,75658.7%55,36740.8%7050.5%135,82824,38918.0%
Santa Barbara 31,92746.9%35,71752.4%4740.7%68,1183,790-5.6%
Santa Clara 159,48057.5%116,19341.9%1,8400.7%277,51343,28715.6%
Santa Cruz 29,52040.5%42,94059.0%3770.5%72,83713,420-18.4%
Shasta 7,80945.4%9,02652.4%3772.2%17,2121,217-7.1%
Sierra 22442.5%29756.4%61.1%52773-13.9%
Siskiyou 2,46638.0%3,89460.0%1261.9%6,4861,428-22.0%
Solano 34,23155.3%27,12243.8%5270.9%61,8807,10911.5%
Sonoma 55,59547.3%61,16752.0%8030.7%117,5655,572-4.7%
Stanislaus 24,35951.2%22,38447.1%7981.7%47,5411,9754.2%
Sutter 4,02352.7%3,46345.4%1461.9%7,6325607.3%
Tehama 2,37245.9%2,65551.4%1362.6%5,163283-5.5%
Trinity 67235.1%1,21163.3%311.6%1,914539-28.2%
Tulare 13,47254.4%10,83443.7%4681.9%24,7742,63810.6%
Tuolumne 3,43348.2%3,59250.5%911.3%7,116159-2.2%
Ventura 60,61551.2%56,75147.9%1,0150.9%118,3813,8643.3%
Yolo 17,65548.2%18,76151.3%1900.5%36,6061,106-3.0%
Yuba 2,38845.1%2,77152.4%1322.5%5,291383-7.2%
Total2,745,30253.1%2,381,72246.0%46,3140.9%5,173,338363,5807.0%

Analysis

Clinton won the California primary, after Bernie Sanders had made a very serious play for the state and barnstormed it before election day. Sanders was significantly behind in the overall race by the time California voted (June 7, 2016), and it would have been hard for him to win the nomination by that point unless he persuaded Superdelegates to switch their support to him at the convention. He hoped a California win would assist in that effort. He rallied large numbers of supporters across the state, but in the end his barnstorming did not prevail, with Clinton winning by seven points (more than most polls predicted). She won in all the major cities: Sacramento, San Francisco, San Jose, Fresno, Los Angeles, and San Diego; Sanders did well in the northernmost counties bordering Oregon where he had won the month before. [27] After Sanders' disappointing loss, Rose Kapolczynski, an advisor to Barbara Boxer, described the primary results: "You can have a lot of excitement and a compelling message and inspire people, but if they don’t show up to vote, it doesn’t matter. Sanders did have very impressive rallies all over the state, but were those people turning around and calling their neighbors and taking action to get other people to vote for Sanders?" [28]

For her part, Clinton had campaigned aggressively for the state's diverse electorate, with Spanish, Korean, Vietnamese, Tagalog, and Chinese-language ads being aired by her campaign on the airwaves and on TV to make a play for both Latino and Asian American voters. [29]

Clinton was declared the presumptive winner of the democratic nomination by multiple news outlets on June 6, the night before the California primary. [30] [31] [32] [33] She had previously not had enough delegates, and the declaration that she had clinched the nomination was based on a survey of superdelegates, not on votes. This announcement being made the night before a primary as large as California's was considered controversial, and may or may not have affected voter turnout the next day. [34]

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