2016 Virginia Democratic presidential primary

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2016 Virginia Democratic presidential primary
Flag of Virginia.svg
  2012 March 1, 2016 (2016-03-01) 2020  
  VA
KS  
  Hillary Clinton by Gage Skidmore 2.jpg Bernie Sanders September 2015 cropped.jpg
Candidate Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders
Home state New York Vermont
Delegate count6233
Popular vote504,741276,370
Percentage64.29%35.20%

2016 Virginia Democratic Presidential Primary by county.svg
Results by county and independent city
Clinton:     50-60%     60-70%     70-80%     80-90%     >90%
Sanders:     50-60%     60-70%     70-80%

The 2016 Virginia Democratic presidential primary took place on March 1 in the U.S. state of Virginia as one of the Democratic Party's primaries ahead of the 2016 presidential election.

Contents

On the same day, dubbed "Super Tuesday," Democratic primaries were held in ten other states plus American Samoa, while the Republican Party held primaries in eleven states including their own Virginia primary.

Opinion polling

Poll sourceDate1st2ndOther
Primary results [1] March 1, 2016 Hillary Clinton
64.3%
Bernie Sanders
35.2%
Other 0.5%
SurveyMonkey [2]

Margin of error: ?
Sample size: 908

February 22–29, 2016Hillary Clinton
57%
Bernie Sanders
36%
Others / Undecided
7%
YouGov/CBS News [3]

Margin of error: 9.2%
Sample size: 471

February 22–26, 2016Hillary Clinton
59%
Bernie Sanders
39%
Others / Undecided
2%
Monmouth [4]

Margin of error: ± 5.6%
Sample size: 302

February 22–24, 2016Hillary Clinton
60%
Bernie Sanders
33%
Others / Undecided
7%
Roanoke College [5]

Margin of error: ± 4.8%
Sample size: 415

February 16–24, 2016Hillary Clinton
50%
Bernie Sanders
33%
Others / Undecided
17%
Public Policy Polling [6]

Margin of error: ± 4.4
Sample size: 500

February 14–16, 2016Hillary Clinton
56%
Bernie Sanders
34%
Christopher Newport University [7]

Margin of error: ± 4.3%
Sample size: 735

February 3–14, 2016Hillary Clinton
52%
Bernie Sanders
40%
Others / Undecided
8%
Polls in 2015
Poll sourceDate1st2nd3rdOther
University of Mary Washington [8]

Registered voters:
Margin of error: ± 3.9%
Sample size: 357
Likely voters:
Margin of error: ± 4.3%
Sample size: 276

November 4–9, 2015Hillary Clinton
58% (RV)
63% (LV)
Bernie Sanders
32% (RV)
27% (LV)
Martin O'Malley
4% (RV)
5% (LV)
Don't know/None/Refused/Wouldn't vote in that primary
7% (RV)
5% (LV)
Christopher Newport University [9]

Margin of error: ± 5.1%
Sample size: 407

September 29 –October 8, 2015Hillary Clinton
40%
Bernie Sanders
23%
Joe Biden
23%
Jim Webb 5%, Martin O'Malley 2%, Lincoln Chafee <1%, Someone Else 1%, Undecided/Don't Know/Refused 5%
Public Policy Polling [10]

Margin of error: ± 4.9%
Sample size: 409

July 13–15, 2015Hillary Clinton
64%
Bernie Sanders
14%
Jim Webb
8%
Lincoln Chafee 5%, Martin O'Malley 2%, Not sure 7%
Christopher Newport University [11]

Margin of error: ± ?
Sample size: ?

April 13–24, 2015Hillary Clinton
80%
Jim Webb
6%
Joe Biden
5%
Bernie Sanders 2%, Martin O'Malley 1%, Lincoln Chafee<1%, Someone else 2%, Undecided 3%
Christopher Newport University [12]

Margin of error: ± ?
Sample size: ?

January 30 – February 10, 2015Hillary Clinton
65%
Jim Webb
10%
Joe Biden
8%
Elizabeth Warren 8%, Deval Patrick 2%, Bernie Sanders 2%, Andrew Cuomo 1%, Martin O'Malley 1%, Someone else 1%, Undecided 2%
Polls in 2014
Poll sourceDate1st2nd3rdOther
Christopher Newport University [13]

Margin of error: ± 5%
Sample size: 391

February 23–28, 2014Hillary Clinton
66%
Joe Biden
19%
Elizabeth Warren
7%
Undecided 9%
Polls in 2013
Poll sourceDate1st2nd3rdOther
University of Mary Washington [14]

Margin of error: ±?
Sample size: ?

September 25–29, 2013Hillary Clinton
34%
Mark Warner
16%
Joe Biden
9%
Elizabeth Warren 3%, Andrew Cuomo 2%, Martin O'Malley 1%, None 12%, Don't know 17%
Public Policy Polling [15]

Margin of error: ±5.2%
Sample size: 357

July 11–14, 2013Hillary Clinton
51%
Joe Biden
14%
Mark Warner
11%
Elizabeth Warren 6%, Cory Booker 4%, Martin O'Malley 3%, Andrew Cuomo 2%, Brian Schweitzer 1%, Kirsten Gillibrand 0%, Someone else/Undecided 8%
Public Policy Polling [16]

Margin of error: ± 4.8%
Sample size: 421

May 24–26, 2013Hillary Clinton
56%
Joe Biden
14%
Mark Warner
11%
Andrew Cuomo 3%, Elizabeth Warren 3%, Kirsten Gillibrand 1%, Martin O'Malley 1%, Deval Patrick 0%, Brian Schweitzer 0%, Someone else/Undecided 10%
University of Mary Washington [17]

Margin of error: ±?
Sample size: ?

March 20–24, 2013Hillary Clinton
38%
Mark Warner
18%
Joe Biden
10%
Andrew Cuomo 3%, Martin O'Malley 3%, Other 1%, None 12%, Don't know 12%

Results

Primary date: March 1, 2016
National delegates: 95

Virginia Democratic primary, March 1, 2016
CandidatePopular voteEstimated delegates
CountPercentagePledgedUnpledgedTotal
Hillary Clinton 504,74164.29%
62
13
75
Bernie Sanders 276,37035.20%
33
0
33
Martin O'Malley (withdrawn)3,9300.50%
Uncommitted
0
1
1
Total785,041100%9514109
Source: [18] [19]

Results by county/Independent cities

County [20] ClintonVotesSandersVotes
Accomack 72.0%1,79027.4%682
Albemarle 54.6%8,28845.0%6,844
Alexandria 69.5%16,31029.9%7,031
Alleghany 63.3%43336.0%246
Amelia 78.8%67121.0%179
Amherst 65.2%1,04434.1%546
Appomattox 67.0%44832.1%215
Arlington 66.8%25,58232.8%12,566
Augusta 48.0%1,63951.4%1,754
Bath 63.0%14836.6%86
Bedford 56.5%1,87642.9%1,424
Bland 51.7%12547.1%114
Botetourt 55.7%88843.6%695
Bristol 56.3%42842.6%324
Brunswick 89.7%1,35410.1%153
Buchanan 70.3%52328.4%211
Buckingham 76.6%90223.1%272
Buena Vista 58.2%14241.0%100
Campbell 65.8%1,29933.8%667
Caroline 74.2%1,90225.1%642
Carroll 57.1%60142.4%446
Charles City 85.6%86414.0%141
Charlotte 79.1%16220.2%162
Charlottesville 46.3%3,88953.4%4,483
Chesapeake 74.1%16,13325.5%5,558
Chesterfield 66.0%22,61733.6%11,514
Clarke 51.4%62547.7%581
Colonia Heights 55.8%40743.4%316
Covington 73.6%23725.5%82
Craig 51.1%11348.0%106
Culpeper 54.7%1,42144.4%1,154
Cumberland 79.9%63919.8%158
Danville 79.9%2,67719.6%656
Dickenson 60.0%34638.7%223
Dinwiddie 83.3%1,93516.2%375
Emporia 88.7%40710.9%50
Essex 82.1%64317.1%134
Fairfax (City) 59.4%1,84140.2%1,246
Fairfax (County) 63.0%88,14736.4%50,930
Falls Church 61.2%1,58838.5%1,000
Fauquier 54.5%2,86044.7%2,345
Floyd 29.6%39670.1%936
Fluvanna 57.6%1,35541.8%984
Franklin 86.9%80412.4%115
Franklin 62.6%1,67536.6%980
Frederick 50.1%2,11449.1%2,072
Fredericksburg 52.7%1,40046.7%1,241
Galax 57.9%12941.3%92
Giles 55.7%40543.6%317
Gloucester 59.1%1,44840.5%993
Goochland 71.5%1,57428.3%624
Grayson 49.3%26550.0%269
Greene 48.7%57950.8%603
Greensville 87.7%83211.9%113
Halifax 80.8%1,75618.6%403
Hampton 77.9%13,54221.7%3,770
Hanover 59.9%4,91639.7%3,255
Harrisonburg 33.6%1,48266.1%2,914
Henrico 69.8%28,17029.7%11,994
Henry 72.7%1,81026.7%664
Highland 49.4%8650.6%88
Hopewell 77.4%1,17722.2%337
Isle of Wight 73.9%2,44925.7%853
James City 65.1%5,21334.3%2,752
King and Queen 78.7%47720.8%126
King George 59.4%91639.7%612
King William 72.0%84326.9%315
Lancaster 74.4%82324.8%275
Lee 63.5%31734.1%170
Lexington 61.2%40337.9%250
Loudoun 58.6%21,18040.8%14,730
Louisa 65.5%1,63034.1%849
Lunenburg 83.5%73616.0%141
Lynchburg 61.6%3,10538.2%1,923
Madison 59.1%53840.7%370
Manassas 58.0%1,81341.1%1,284
Manassas Park 57.4%58142.2%427
Martinsville 75.3%83423.8%264
Mathews 63.2%43535.9%247
Mecklenburg 80.3%1,58919.2%379
Middlesex 64.4%50935.4%280
Montgomery 40.7%3,50759.0%5,090
Nelson 56.2%99243.1%761
New Kent 67.8%95131.4%440
Newport News 73.0%4,55326.6%4,553
Norfolk 69.2%15,76030.5%6,936
Northampton 72.5%86827.1%324
Northumberland 75.1%82324.2%265
Norton 53.8%8645.0%72
Nottoway 78.1%82921.1%224
Orange 59.9%1,32239.4%870
Page 53.4%41146.0%353
Patrick 48.9%36150.3%372
Petersburg 85.4%4,10014.3%688
Pittsylvania 75.2%2,37124.3%766
Poquoson 46.5%29552.8%335
Portsmouth 78.5%9,46921.1%2,541
Powhatan 64.4%1,07935.3%592
Prince Edward 75.9%1,36623.3%420
Prince George 77.7%1,99422.1%566
Prince William 63.9%26,44335.5%14,701
Pulaski 58.3%83741.0%588
Radford 41.6%47257.7%655
Richmond (City) 60.6%21,82839.2%14,117
Richmond (County) 80.1%33319.2%80
Roanoke (City) 59.0%4,78440.8%3,302
Roanoke (County) 54.3%3,32545.1%2,761
Rockbridge 57.1%90242.8%676
Rockingham 47.0%1,73552.6%1,943
Russell 59.9%55738.8%361
Salem 50.9%76548.4%727
Scott 56.2%30542.9%233
Shenandoah 50.5%96048.8%929
Smyth 58.7%52740.2%361
Southampton 83.8%1,19915.1%216
Spotsylvania 60.4%5,39938.9%3,480
Stafford 60.9%6,43938.2%4,042
Staunton 44.8%1,11554.8%1,365
Suffolk 79.5%7,53720.0%1,895
Surry 81.8%81217.5%174
Sussex 90.5%9579.3%98
Tazewell 57.6%68340.6%481
Virginia Beach 63.1%22,36236.6%12,983
Warren 48.0%94251.4%1,008
Washington 54.1%1,18545.0%984
Waynesboro 50.3%78849.0%769
Westmoreland 74.5%87925.0%295
Williamsburg 49.0%1,15950.7%1,199
Winchester 50.9%95048.4%903
Wise 46.8%51952.3%579
Whythe 55.3%52944.2%423
York 61.4%3,29238.1%2,041
Total64.3%504,74135.2%276,370

Analysis

After losing the state badly to Barack Obama in 2008, Hillary Clinton won Virginia by 29 points against Bernie Sanders in 2016. Her victory was primarily delivered by African Americans who backed Clinton 84-16, and women, who backed Clinton over Sanders by a margin of 70-30. Clinton also won the white vote in Virginia, 57-42, which comprised 63% of the electorate in the State. Clinton swept all income levels and educational attainment levels.

Clinton won most of the major cities in Virginia. She won Alexandria and Fairfax by a wide margin. She also won the D.C. suburbs as a whole, 65-35. This region has a large population of college-educated whites as well as African Americans. Clinton won the Northern Virginia Exurbs 60-40. She performed well in more rural Central Virginia and western Virginia including the Shenandoah Valley, winning 54-43 over Bernie Sanders and carrying the city of Roanoke. Clinton also won the eastern region of Virginia, including the major city of Richmond, by a margin of 66-34. She won in the Tidewater region of Virginia 72-28.

References

  1. Primary results
  2. "Trump's Lead Looks Steady in Run-Up to Super Tuesday" . Retrieved March 1, 2016.
  3. "CBS News 2016 Battleground TrackerVirginia" . Retrieved February 28, 2016.
  4. "VIRGINIA: TRUMP, CLINTON LEAD PRIMARIES" (PDF).
  5. "RC Poll: Clinton, Trump hold leads in Virginia primary elections; Cruz, Rubio in tight battle for second".
  6. "Subject: Clinton leads in 10 of 12 Early March Primaries; Benefits From Overwhelming Black Support" (PDF).
  7. "Trump leads GOP field, with Rubio and Cruz next; Clinton leads Sanders among Virginia Democrats" (PDF).
  8. "VIRGINIA SURVEY 2015" (PDF). umw.edu. Retrieved November 17, 2015.
  9. "Clinton top choice among Virginia Democrats, but Biden performs better against Republicans" (PDF). Cnu.edu. Retrieved October 12, 2015.
  10. "Bush leads GOP Field in Virginia Poll" (PDF). Public Policy Polling. Retrieved July 16, 2015.
  11. "Bush tops Clinton in battleground Virginia; Republican 2016 field still largely wide open, while Democrats rally strongly around Clinton" (PDF). Cnu.edu. Retrieved July 11, 2015.
  12. Christopher Newport University
  13. Christopher Newport University
  14. University of Mary Washington
  15. Public Policy Polling
  16. Public Policy Polling
  17. University of Mary Washington
  18. The Green Papers
  19. Virginia Department of Elections
  20. "2016 March Democratic Presidential Primary".