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Warner: 20–30% 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Gade: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 50% No data | |||||||||||||||||
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Elections in Virginia |
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The 2020 United States Senate election in Virginia was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the Commonwealth of Virginia, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic senator Mark Warner won reelection to a third term against Republican nominee Daniel Gade.
Of Virginia's 20 most populous counties and independent cities, Warner won 18, losing only Hanover and Spotsylvania. [1]
Incumbent senator Mark Warner first won election in 2008 getting 65% of the vote over former governor Jim Gilmore. [2] In 2014, during the Tea Party movement, and declining voter turnout, Senator Warner won re-election with 49.1% of the vote by a margin of 0.8% against former chairman of the Republican National Committee Ed Gillespie. [3]
Seven Republicans declared that they would compete in the race, but only three made the threshold of 3,500 signatures. [7] [8] The original signature threshold was 10,000 signatures, but was lowered to 3,500 following a suit by Omari Faulkner. [9] The primary was on June 23.
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Daniel Gade | 208,754 | 67.40% | |
Republican | Alissa Baldwin | 56,165 | 18.13% | |
Republican | Thomas Speciale | 44,795 | 14.46% | |
Total votes | 309,714 | 100.0% |
Virginia's 2020 Senate election was widely considered to be a safe hold for Mark Warner, as pre-election polling showed a massive lead for Warner. Warner's razor-thin victory over Ed Gillespie 6 years earlier was widely considered to be a fluke owing to lowered turnout and complacency. On election day, Warner was declared the winner as soon as polls closed based on exit polling alone. The higher turnout is attributable to being held concurrently with the Presidential Election. Warner also notably outperformed Biden in the state, albeit narrowly.
Warner's victory was largely contributed from the DC Metropolitan area in north Virginia. This is the area that has shifted Virginia from a Republican stronghold in the early 2000s to a Democratic stronghold.
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report [31] | Safe D | October 29, 2020 |
Inside Elections [32] | Safe D | October 28, 2020 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball [33] | Safe D | November 2, 2020 |
Daily Kos [34] | Safe D | October 30, 2020 |
Politico [35] | Safe D | November 2, 2020 |
RCP [36] | Likely D | October 23, 2020 |
DDHQ [37] | Safe D | November 3, 2020 |
538 [38] | Safe D | November 2, 2020 |
Economist [39] | Safe D | November 2, 2020 |
Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Mark Warner (D) | Daniel Gade (R) | Other/ Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Swayable Archived November 13, 2020, at the Wayback Machine [lower-alpha 2] | October 27 – November 1, 2020 | 283 (LV) | ± 8.3% | 61% | 39% | – |
Data for Progress | October 27 – November 1, 2020 | 690 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 57% | 42% | 1% [lower-alpha 3] |
Roanoke College | October 23–29, 2020 | 802 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 55% | 39% | 6% [lower-alpha 4] |
Christopher Newport University | October 15–27, 2020 | 908 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 57% | 37% | 6% [lower-alpha 5] |
Swayable | October 23–26, 2020 | 332 (LV) | ± 7.3% | 60% | 40% | – |
Virginia Commonwealth University | October 13–22, 2020 | 709 (LV) | ± 4.93% | 55% | 38% | 8% [lower-alpha 6] |
Schar School/Washington Post | October 13–19, 2020 | 908 (LV) | ± 4% | 57% | 39% | 4% [lower-alpha 7] |
Civiqs/Daily Kos | October 11–14, 2020 | 1,231 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 54% | 43% | 2% [lower-alpha 8] |
Reconnect Research/Roanoke College | September 30 – October 12, 2020 | 602 (LV) | – | 55% | 38% | 7% [lower-alpha 9] |
Roanoke College/Reconnect Research | September 30 – October 12, 2020 | 602 (LV) | ± 5.4% | 55% | 38% | 7% [lower-alpha 9] |
Cygnal (R) [lower-alpha 10] | October 9–11, 2020 | 607 (LV) | – | 51% | 44% | 5% [lower-alpha 11] |
Cygnal (R) [lower-alpha 12] [lower-alpha 10] | September 22–25, 2020 | 600 (LV) | – | 51% | 41% | – |
Christopher Newport University | September 9–21, 2020 | 796 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 52% | 39% | 9% [lower-alpha 13] |
Virginia Commonwealth University Archived September 15, 2020, at the Wayback Machine [lower-alpha 14] | August 28 – September 7, 2020 | 692 (LV) | ± 6.22% | 55% | 38% | 6 [lower-alpha 15] |
Roanoke College | August 9–22, 2020 | 566 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 55% | 34% | 10% [lower-alpha 16] |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Mark Warner (D) | Generic Republican | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Roanoke College | May 3–16, 2020 | 563 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 48% | 31% | – | – |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Generic Democrat | Generic Republican | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ipsos/University of Virginia | Feb 15–19, 2019 | 636 (A) | ± 4.0% | 43% | 26% | 2% | 23% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Mark Warner (incumbent) | 2,468,089 | 56.01% | +6.86% | |
Republican | Daniel Gade | 1,934,306 | 43.89% | -4.45% | |
Write-in | 4,388 | 0.10% | +0.02% | ||
Total votes | 4,406,783 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
Democratic hold | |||||
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The 1996 United States Senate election in Virginia was held on November 5, 1996. Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator John Warner won re-election to a fourth term over Democratic challenger Mark Warner (unrelated), who later served as Governor of Virginia from 2002 to 2006 and won this Senate seat in 2008 after John Warner declined to run for re-election that year.
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