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Earle-Sears: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Ayala: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% 50% No data | |||||||||||||||||
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Elections in Virginia |
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The 2021 Virginia lieutenant gubernatorial election was held on November 2, 2021, to elect the next lieutenant governor of Virginia. Incumbent Democratic Lieutenant Governor Justin Fairfax was eligible to run for a second term, but instead unsuccessfully ran for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination. [1] On November 3, Hala Ayala conceded the race, [2] making Republican Winsome Earle-Sears the first black woman to be elected to the lieutenant governorship of Virginia or any statewide office, as well as the first woman elected lieutenant governor in Virginia's history. Earle-Sears was also the first Jamaican-American to become a lieutenant governor.
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Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [a] | Margin of error | Hala Ayala | Elizabeth Guzman | Mark Levine | Andria McClellan | Sean Perryman | Sam Rasoul | Xavier Warren | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Roanoke College [43] | May 24 – June 1, 2021 | 637 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 16% | 3% | 7% | 7% | 3% | 11% | 2% | – | 45% |
Christopher Newport University [44] | April 11–20, 2021 | 806 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 12% | 2% | 1% | 64% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Hala Ayala | 181,168 | 37.64% | |
Democratic | Sam Rasoul | 116,816 | 24.27% | |
Democratic | Mark Levine | 53,735 | 11.16% | |
Democratic | Andria McClellan | 51,015 | 10.60% | |
Democratic | Sean Perryman | 38,925 | 8.09% | |
Democratic | Xavier Warren | 19,909 | 4.13% | |
Democratic | Elizabeth Guzmán (withdrawn) | 19,803 | 4.11% | |
Total votes | 481,365 | 100.00% |
After months of uncertainty, the Republican Party of Virginia State Central Committee decided to hold an "unassembled convention" to select their nominees for governor, lieutenant governor, and attorney general, as opposed to holding a state run primary. The convention was held May 8 using ranked choice voting. [46]
Virginia GOP Convention, Lieutenant Governor nominee [51] | ||||||||||
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Candidate | Round 1 | Round 2 | Round 3 | Round 4 | Round 5 | |||||
Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | |
Winsome Earle-Sears | 4,075.68 | 32.5% | 4,300.11 | 34.3% | 4,626.70 | 36.9% | 5,425.91 | 43.2% | 6,827.89 | 54.4% |
Tim Hugo | 2,824.17 | 22.5% | 2,987.20 | 23.8% | 3,184.76 | 25.4% | 3,816.11 | 30.4% | 5,726.11 | 45.6% |
Glenn Davis | 2,536.77 | 20.2% | 2,675.44 | 21.3% | 2,838.05 | 22.6% | 3,311.97 | 26.4% | Eliminated | |
Lance Allen | 1,538.80 | 12.3% | 1701.82 | 13.6% | 1,904.50 | 15.2% | Eliminated | |||
Puneet Ahluwalia | 818.95 | 6.5% | 889.43 | 7.1% | Eliminated | |||||
Maeve Rigler | 759.62 | 6.1% | Eliminated | |||||||
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Graphical summary
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Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [a] | Margin of error | Hala Ayala (D) | Winsome Earle-Sears (R) | Other | Undecided |
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The Trafalgar Group (R) [80] | October 29–31, 2021 | 1,081 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 50% | 1% | 2% |
Echelon Insights (R) [81] | October 27–29, 2021 | 611 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 48% | – | 6% |
Roanoke College [82] | October 14–28, 2021 | 571 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 46% | 44% | 0% | 10% |
The Washington Post /Schar School [83] | October 20–26, 2021 | 1,107 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 44% | 3% [b] | 3% |
918 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 50% | 46% | 1% [c] | 3% | ||
Christopher Newport University [84] | October 17–25, 2021 | 944 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 48% | – | 3% |
Suffolk University [85] | October 21–24, 2021 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 46% | 44% | – | 10% |
co/efficient (R) [86] [A] | October 20–21, 2021 | 785 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 46% | 47% | – | 7% |
Cygnal (R) [87] | October 19–21, 2021 | 816 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 47% | 47% | – | 6% |
Virginia Commonwealth University [88] | October 9–21, 2021 | 722 (LV) | ± 6.4% | 36% | 35% | 16% | 13% |
Data for Progress (D) [89] | October 4–15, 2021 | 1,589 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 47% | 42% | 3% | 8% |
Christopher Newport University [90] | September 27 – October 6, 2021 | 802 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 48% | 44% | – | 8% |
Roanoke College [91] | September 12–26, 2021 | 603 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 45% | 40% | 1% | 14% |
KAConsulting LLC (R) [92] [B] | September 17–19, 2021 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 34% | 24% | 3% | 40% |
Virginia Commonwealth University [93] | September 7–15, 2021 | 731 (LV) | ± 6.9% | 33% | 30% | 20% | 16% |
University of Mary Washington [94] | September 7–13, 2021 | 1,000 (A) | ± 3.1% | 38% | 38% | 6% [d] | 18% |
528 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 41% | 47% | 2% [e] | 10% | ||
Monmouth University [95] | August 24–29, 2021 | 802 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 43% | 42% | 2% | 14% |
Christopher Newport University [96] | August 15–23, 2021 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 52% | 42% | 1% | 6% |
Roanoke College [97] | August 3–17, 2021 | 558 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 42% | 36% | 2% | 20% |
Virginia Commonwealth University [98] | August 4–15, 2021 | 770 (RV) | ± 5.4% | 38% | 31% | 19% | 12% |
~747 (LV) | ± 5.5% | 39% | 31% | 17% | 12% | ||
JMC Analytics and Polling (R) [99] | June 9–12, 2021 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 42% | 36% | – | 22% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Winsome Earle-Sears | 1,658,332 | 50.71% | +3.53% | |
Democratic | Hala Ayala | 1,608,030 | 49.17% | −3.54% | |
Write-in | 3,807 | 0.12% | +0.03% | ||
Total votes | 3,270,169 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
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Registered electors | 5,951,368 | ||||
Republican gain from Democratic |
Earle-Sears won six of 11 congressional districts, including two that were represented by Democrats. [101]
District | Ayala | Earle-Sears | Representative |
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1st | 41% | 59% | Rob Wittman |
2nd | 46% | 54% | Elaine Luria |
3rd | 62% | 38% | Bobby Scott |
4th | 57% | 43% | Donald McEachin |
5th | 40% | 60% | Bob Good |
6th | 34% | 66% | Ben Cline |
7th | 45% | 55% | Abigail Spanberger |
8th | 73% | 27% | Don Beyer |
9th | 26% | 74% | Morgan Griffith |
10th | 52% | 47% | Jennifer Wexton |
11th | 67% | 33% | Gerry Connolly |
Partisan clients
Our endorsement for governor in the June 8 Democratic primary, then, is McAuliffe.
...the National Rifle Association Political Victory Fund (NRA-PVF) is proud to endorse Jason Miyares for attorney general and Winsome Sears for lieutenant governor of Virginia.
Official campaign websites