1948 United States presidential election in Virginia

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1948 United States presidential election in Virginia
Flag of Virginia (1931-1950).png
  1944 November 2, 1948 1952  
  Harry S Truman, bw half-length photo portrait, facing front, 1945 (cropped).jpg Thomas Dewey (3x4 crop).jpg Strom Thurmond 1948 (cropped).jpg
Nominee Harry S. Truman Thomas E. Dewey Strom Thurmond
Party Democratic Republican States’ Rights
Home state Missouri New York South Carolina
Running mate Alben W. Barkley Earl Warren Fielding L. Wright
Electoral vote1100
Popular vote200,786172,07043,393
Percentage47.89%41.04%10.35%

Virginia Presidential Election Results 1948.svg
County Results

President before election

Harry S. Truman
Democratic

Elected President

Harry S. Truman
Democratic

The 1948 United States presidential election in Virginia took place on November 2, 1948, throughout the 48 contiguous states. Voters chose 11 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

Contents

For the previous four decades Virginia had almost completely disenfranchised its black and poor white populations through the use of a cumulative poll tax and literacy tests. [1] So restricted was suffrage in this period that it has been calculated that a third of Virginia's electorate during the first half of the twentieth century comprised state employees and officeholders. [1]

This limited electorate allowed Virginian politics to be controlled for four decades by the Byrd Organization, as progressive “antiorganization” factions were rendered impotent by the inability of almost all their potential electorate to vote. [2] Historical fusion with the “Readjuster” Democrats, [3] defection of substantial proportions of the Northeast-aligned white electorate of the Shenandoah Valley and Southwest Virginia over free silver, [4] and an early move towards a “lily white” Jim Crow party [3] meant Republicans retained a small but permanent number of legislative seats and local offices in the western part of the state. [5] In 1928 a combination of growing middle-class Republicanism in the cities and anti-Catholicism against Al Smith in the Tidewater [6] allowed the GOP to carry Virginia and elect three Congressmen, including one representing the local district of emerging machine leader Byrd. [7] However, from 1932 with the state severely affected by the Depression, Republican strength declined below its low pre-1928 level, although Byrd himself became highly critical of Franklin D. Roosevelt’s New Deal policies as early as 1940. [8]

Virginia’s delegates at the 1948 Democratic National Convention were all opposed to incumbent President Harry S. Truman after his proposal for black civil rights titled To Secure These Rights . Nevertheless, the presence of viable Republican opposition in the southwest and Shenandoah Valley meant that Byrd refused to endorse either South Carolina Governor Strom Thurmond, who received the nomination of the States’ Rights Democratic Party, or Republican nominee New York Governor Thomas E. Dewey, [9] largely because of fear of losing several seats in the House to resurgent Republicans. [9]

Campaign

Despite the failure of local federal officeholders to endorse him, Thurmond campaigned extensively in Virginia during October, arguing that Truman, Dewey and Progressive candidate Henry A. Wallace all had platforms that would destroy the existing “American way of life”. [10] The Item argued that Byrd did support Thurmond and that his tour was helping the South Carolina Governor, [11] although other polls did not imply this. Neither Dewey nor Truman campaigned in Virginia, and despite the fact that all federal representatives supported the incumbent president, local party officials of the Byrd Organization did little to work for Truman and running mate Alben W. Barkley. [12]

Despite all polls expecting Dewey to carry the state, Truman would win quite comfortably, although the Democratic margin fell by more than seventeen points vis-à-vis the 1944 election.

11% of white voters supported Thurmond. [13]

Clifford K. Berryman's editorial cartoon of October 19, 1948. One of the cards says that, according to a poll, Dewey would succeed in Virginia. Truman-Dewey-polls-1948.jpg
Clifford K. Berryman's editorial cartoon of October 19, 1948. One of the cards says that, according to a poll, Dewey would succeed in Virginia.

Polls

SourceRankingAs of
Chattanooga Daily Times [14] Lean R (flip)October 15, 1948
The Montgomery Advertiser [15] Likely R (flip)October 24, 1948
The Miami News [16] Likely R (flip)October 25, 1948
Mount Vernon Argus [17] Likely R (flip)November 1, 1948
Oakland Tribune [18] Tilt R (flip)November 1, 1948

Results

1948 United States presidential election in Virginia [19]
PartyCandidateVotesPercentageElectoral votes
Democratic Harry S. Truman (inc.)200,78647.89%11
Republican Thomas E. Dewey 172,07041.04%0
States’ Rights Strom Thurmond 43,39310.35%0
Progressive Henry A. Wallace 2,0470.49%0
Socialist Norman Thomas 7260.17%0
Socialist Labor Edward Teichert2340.06%0
Totals419,256100.00%11

Results by county or independent city

1948 United States presidential election in Virginia by counties and independent cities [20] [21] [22]
Harry S. Truman
Democratic
Thomas Edmund Dewey
Republican
James Strom Thurmond
States’ Rights
Henry Agard Wallace
Progressive
Various candidates
Other parties
MarginTotal votes cast
# %# %# %# %# %# %
Accomack County 1,66953.77%1,08835.05%33910.92%50.16%30.10%58118.72%3,104
Albemarle County 1,17848.22%98440.28%27111.09%40.16%60.25%1947.94%2,443
Alleghany County 2,25358.52%1,42537.01%1473.82%140.36%110.29%82821.51%3,850
Amelia County 44341.87%37235.16%23722.40%40.38%20.19%716.71%1,058
Amherst County 1,48160.06%46018.65%50720.56%40.16%140.57%974 [lower-alpha 1] 39.50%2,466
Appomattox County 1,18270.95%23814.29%24114.47%30.18%20.12%941 [lower-alpha 1] 56.48%1,666
Arlington County 7,79838.77%10,77453.57%1,1215.57%2671.33%1510.75%-2,976-14.80%20,111
Augusta County 1,35539.23%1,69048.93%40111.61%20.06%60.17%-335-9.70%3,454
Bath County 37539.98%48852.03%707.46%50.53%00.00%-113-12.05%938
Bedford County 1,55643.11%1,08430.04%96326.68%20.06%40.11%47213.08%3,609
Bland County 73845.33%82250.49%664.05%10.06%10.06%-84-5.16%1,628
Botetourt County 1,02639.00%1,36351.81%2308.74%100.38%20.08%-337-12.81%2,631
Brunswick County 1,06748.46%22910.40%89540.64%30.14%80.36%172 [lower-alpha 1] 7.81%2,202
Buchanan County 3,17459.61%2,08539.15%510.96%70.13%80.15%1,08920.45%5,325
Buckingham County 72857.46%35427.94%18514.60%00.00%00.00%37429.52%1,267
Campbell County 1,55454.03%66823.23%64422.39%30.10%70.24%88630.81%2,876
Caroline County 73155.72%39730.26%18213.87%20.15%00.00%33425.46%1,312
Carroll County 1,19632.00%2,45665.72%762.03%50.13%40.11%-1,260-33.72%3,737
Charles City County 25851.91%16733.60%6913.88%20.40%10.20%9118.31%497
Charlotte County 96457.83%28517.10%41725.01%00.00%10.06%547 [lower-alpha 1] 32.81%1,667
Chesterfield County 2,60054.97%1,42830.19%67114.19%180.38%130.27%1,17224.78%4,730
Clarke County 48241.62%38433.16%28424.53%30.26%50.43%988.46%1,158
Craig County 45657.29%31739.82%232.89%00.00%00.00%13917.46%796
Culpeper County 80447.32%68240.14%21112.42%20.12%00.00%1227.18%1,699
Cumberland County 42452.15%21926.94%16920.79%00.00%10.12%20525.22%813
Dickenson County 2,94556.94%2,19742.48%160.31%120.23%20.04%74814.46%5,172
Dinwiddie County 96164.07%26117.40%26817.87%70.47%30.20%693 [lower-alpha 1] 46.20%1,500
Elizabeth City County 2,74457.31%1,61733.77%3647.60%470.98%160.33%1,12723.54%4,788
Essex County 32950.54%22133.95%9915.21%10.15%10.15%10816.59%651
Fairfax County 3,71939.19%4,93051.95%7057.43%790.83%560.59%-1,211-12.76%9,489
Fauquier County 1,29148.41%1,10241.32%2659.94%30.11%60.22%1897.09%2,667
Floyd County 43424.87%1,26672.55%422.41%10.06%20.11%-832-47.68%1,745
Fluvanna County 44752.46%31937.44%839.74%20.23%10.12%12815.02%852
Franklin County 1,34347.74%1,10039.10%34812.37%130.46%90.32%2438.64%2,813
Frederick County 1,24451.75%92138.31%2399.94%00.00%00.00%32313.44%2,404
Giles County 1,52949.09%1,44846.48%1314.21%40.13%30.10%812.60%3,115
Gloucester County 71956.44%43434.07%1179.18%30.24%10.08%28522.37%1,274
Goochland County 68359.91%29225.61%15413.51%80.70%30.26%39134.30%1,140
Grayson County 2,74141.73%3,66955.86%1522.31%30.05%30.05%-928-14.13%6,568
Greene County 26136.55%42058.82%283.92%30.42%20.28%-159-22.27%714
Greensville County 71049.75%30121.09%40428.31%40.28%80.56%306 [lower-alpha 1] 21.44%1,427
Halifax County 1,32334.19%52113.46%2,00751.86%70.18%120.31%-684 [lower-alpha 1] -17.67%3,870
Hanover County 1,04847.59%83838.06%29413.35%140.64%80.36%2109.54%2,202
Henrico County 2,32146.70%2,09242.09%50810.22%360.72%130.26%2294.61%4,970
Henry County 1,31851.95%73028.77%47418.68%70.28%80.32%58823.18%2,537
Highland County 42338.81%57953.12%857.80%10.09%20.18%-156-14.31%1,090
Isle of Wight County 1,06466.88%44227.78%815.09%20.13%20.13%62239.09%1,591
James City County 19844.49%17739.78%6815.28%10.22%10.22%214.72%445
King and Queen County 29353.56%17131.26%8214.99%00.00%10.18%12222.30%547
King George County 24834.44%31643.89%15221.11%20.28%20.28%-68-9.44%720
King William County 47649.02%34835.84%13814.21%50.51%40.41%12813.18%971
Lancaster County 56047.70%45939.10%14912.69%40.34%20.17%1018.60%1,174
Lee County 4,06948.06%4,29750.76%861.02%70.08%70.08%-228-2.69%8,466
Loudoun County 1,54547.61%1,43044.07%2467.58%100.31%140.43%1153.54%3,245
Louisa County 78246.24%70141.45%20111.89%60.35%10.06%814.79%1,691
Lunenburg County 1,12665.54%25114.61%33519.50%30.17%30.17%791 [lower-alpha 1] 46.04%1,718
Madison County 42836.03%66255.72%897.49%20.17%70.59%-234-19.70%1,188
Mathews County 45844.42%49047.53%817.86%20.19%00.00%-32-3.10%1,031
Mecklenburg County 2,11769.34%51316.80%42213.82%10.03%00.00%1,60452.54%3,053
Middlesex County 45751.99%27130.83%14816.84%10.11%20.23%18621.16%879
Montgomery County 1,12632.42%2,07059.60%2547.31%50.14%180.52%-944-27.18%3,473
Nansemond County 2,11576.27%41314.89%1796.46%662.38%00.00%1,70261.38%2,773
Nelson County 1,20469.16%37121.31%1649.42%10.06%10.06%83347.85%1,741
New Kent County 27753.89%14027.24%9217.90%10.19%40.78%13726.65%514
Norfolk County 4,69666.24%1,83025.81%5367.56%210.30%60.08%2,86640.43%7,089
Northampton County 99756.71%52529.86%22913.03%50.28%20.11%47226.85%1,758
Northumberland County 42937.43%53546.68%17815.53%20.17%20.17%-106-9.25%1,146
Nottoway County 1,00451.15%48624.76%46723.79%20.10%40.20%51826.39%1,963
Orange County 85646.22%72639.20%26414.25%30.16%30.16%1307.02%1,852
Page County 1,61139.73%2,23655.14%1724.24%330.81%30.07%-625-15.41%4,055
Patrick County 76041.30%64835.22%43023.37%10.05%10.05%1126.09%1,840
Pittsylvania County 3,14955.58%1,16420.54%1,32123.31%110.19%210.37%1,828 [lower-alpha 1] 32.26%5,666
Powhatan County 33850.98%23835.90%8312.52%20.30%20.30%10015.08%663
Prince Edward County 74043.07%45926.72%51029.69%20.12%70.41%230 [lower-alpha 1] 13.39%1,718
Prince George County 74561.57%31726.20%13811.40%70.58%30.25%42835.37%1,210
Princess Anne County 2,00854.05%1,32935.77%3619.72%120.32%50.13%67918.28%3,715
Prince William County 1,16255.78%76036.49%1517.25%60.29%40.19%40219.30%2,083
Pulaski County 1,41240.90%1,69148.99%3449.97%30.09%20.06%-279-8.08%3,452
Rappahannock County 61759.67%31130.08%1009.67%30.29%30.29%30629.59%1,034
Richmond County 24039.02%29648.13%7011.38%30.49%60.98%-56-9.11%615
Roanoke County 2,87638.58%3,98853.49%5687.62%180.24%50.07%-1,112-14.92%7,455
Rockbridge County 99443.52%1,06246.50%2179.50%50.22%60.26%-68-2.98%2,284
Rockingham County 1,68032.42%3,21962.12%2605.02%80.15%150.29%-1,539-29.70%5,182
Russell County 2,68951.29%2,44746.67%1031.96%20.04%20.04%2424.62%5,243
Scott County 2,67642.67%3,52056.12%631.00%60.10%70.11%-844-13.46%6,272
Shenandoah County 1,60330.95%3,34964.65%2144.13%80.15%60.12%-1,746-33.71%5,180
Smyth County 1,75036.29%2,89760.08%1613.34%40.08%100.21%-1,147-23.79%4,822
Southampton County 1,46269.62%33916.14%29113.86%50.24%30.14%1,12353.48%2,100
Spotsylvania County 81854.17%51734.24%17011.26%40.26%10.07%30119.93%1,510
Stafford County 70844.84%73246.36%1298.17%60.38%40.25%-24-1.52%1,579
Surry County 46059.43%13417.31%18023.26%00.00%00.00%280 [lower-alpha 1] 36.18%774
Sussex County 61450.33%24420.00%35529.10%30.25%40.33%259 [lower-alpha 1] 21.23%1,220
Tazewell County 2,25847.98%2,27848.41%1633.46%60.13%10.02%-20-0.42%4,706
Warren County 1,29151.99%1,01640.92%1666.69%60.24%40.16%27511.08%2,483
Washington County 2,51044.09%2,97252.20%1873.28%110.19%130.23%-462-8.12%5,693
Westmoreland County 50339.42%56844.51%19715.44%70.55%10.08%-65-5.09%1,276
Wise County 4,86261.98%2,83636.15%1331.70%80.10%60.08%2,02625.83%7,845
Wythe County 97629.26%2,07762.26%2798.36%30.09%10.03%-1,101-33.00%3,336
York County 82660.03%41830.38%1198.65%60.44%70.51%40829.65%1,376
Alexandria City 3,91744.99%3,90344.83%7778.92%670.77%430.49%140.16%8,707
Bristol City 1,45158.94%87935.70%1255.08%70.28%00.00%57223.23%2,462
Buena Vista City 29752.75%23441.56%315.51%10.18%00.00%6311.19%563
Charlottesville City 1,52745.35%1,41942.14%38711.49%150.45%190.56%1083.21%3,367
Clifton Forge City 81858.22%45132.10%1319.32%40.28%10.07%36726.12%1,405
Danville City 2,33442.84%1,57928.98%1,51127.73%110.20%130.24%75513.86%5,448
Fredericksburg City 81642.26%81041.95%29015.02%90.47%60.31%60.31%1,931
Hampton City 72758.87%37130.04%1239.96%131.05%10.08%35628.83%1,235
Harrisonburg City 75131.93%1,37758.55%2088.84%80.34%80.34%-626-26.62%2,352
Hopewell City 1,24262.70%57028.77%1507.57%160.81%30.15%67233.92%1,981
Lynchburg City 2,48036.76%2,37335.17%1,84127.29%230.34%300.44%1071.59%6,747
Martinsville City 81439.50%64231.15%59829.02%60.29%10.05%1728.35%2,061
Newport News City 3,42065.28%1,45327.73%2845.42%711.36%110.21%1,96737.55%5,239
Norfolk City 9,37050.76%7,55640.93%1,2556.80%2591.40%200.11%1,8149.83%18,460
Petersburg City 2,01952.70%1,18931.04%59915.64%160.42%80.21%83021.67%3,831
Portsmouth City 4,61262.48%2,05627.86%6158.33%821.11%160.22%2,55634.63%7,381
Radford City 82646.80%85048.16%804.53%60.34%30.17%-24-1.36%1,765
Richmond City 16,46646.64%14,54941.21%3,89211.03%3070.87%870.25%1,9175.43%35,301
Roanoke City 5,34340.48%6,54249.56%1,2449.42%600.45%110.08%-1,199-9.08%13,200
South Norfolk City 85766.80%34727.05%735.69%60.47%00.00%51039.75%1,283
Staunton City 91434.19%1,32349.49%41815.64%90.34%90.34%-409-15.30%2,673
Suffolk City 1,03049.76%74135.80%24611.88%512.46%20.10%28913.96%2,070
Warwick City 1,82257.57%1,01432.04%3069.67%130.41%100.32%80825.53%3,165
Waynesboro City 83946.77%83346.43%1186.58%00.00%40.22%60.33%1,794
Williamsburg City 31236.75%33439.34%19122.50%80.94%40.47%-22-2.59%849
Winchester City 89435.11%1,27249.96%37114.57%70.27%20.08%-378-14.85%2,546
Totals200,78647.89%172,07041.04%43,39310.35%2,0470.49%9600.23%28,7166.85%419,256

Counties and Independent Cities that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Dixiecrat

Analysis

Ultimately, Virginia was won by Truman with 47.89 percent of the vote to Dewey's 41.04 percent and Thurmond's 10.35 percent. This contradicted polls that expected Dewey to carry the state with around 47 percent of the vote to Truman's 45 percent and 7 to 8 percent for Thurmond. [23] This election nonetheless accelerated the major losses Franklin D. Roosevelt experienced in the Washington D.C. suburbs and the Shenandoah Valley at the previous election — losses which would pave the way for Virginia voting Republican in thirteen of the next fourteen presidential elections. [24]

As of the 2020 presidential election , this is the last election in which the Fifth Congressional District has supported a Democratic presidential candidate. It is also the last election when Hanover County, King William County, Lancaster County, Middlesex County and Orange County have supported a Democratic presidential nominee. [25] Chesterfield County and Lynchburg City would not vote Democratic again at a presidential level until 2020, Henrico County not until 2008, Albemarle County and Danville City not until 2004, Prince Edward County not until 1996 and Amelia County not until 1976. [25]

This remains the last occasion Virginia voted to the left of Delaware, and was also the last time until 2012 that Virginia voted for a different candidate than Indiana.

See also

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 In this county or city where Thurmond ran second ahead of Dewey, the margin given is Truman vote minus Thurmond vote.

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The 1948 United States presidential election in Arkansas took place on November 2, 1948, as part of the 1948 United States presidential election. State voters chose nine representatives, or electors, to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president. This would be the last presidential election where Arkansas had nine electoral votes: the Great Migration would see the state lose three congressional districts in the next decade-and-a-half.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">1948 United States presidential election in North Carolina</span>

The 1948 United States presidential election in North Carolina took place on November 2, 1948, as part of the 1948 United States presidential election. North Carolina voters chose 14 representatives, or electors, to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">1948 United States presidential election in Tennessee</span>

The 1948 United States presidential election in Tennessee took place on November 2, 1948, as part of the 1948 United States presidential election. Tennessee voters chose 12 representatives, or electors, to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">1948 United States presidential election in Wyoming</span>

The 1948 United States presidential election in Wyoming took place on November 2, 1948, as part of the 1948 United States presidential election. State voters chose three representatives, or electors, to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president. Wyoming was won by incumbent Democratic President Harry S. Truman, running with Senate Majority Leader Alben W. Barkley, with 51.62 percent of the popular vote, against the Republican nominee, 47th Governor of New York Thomas E. Dewey, running with California Governor and future Chief Justice of the United States Earl Warren, with 47.27 percent of the popular vote, despite the fact that Dewey had previously won the state four years earlier.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">1892 United States presidential election in Florida</span>

The 1892 United States presidential election in Florida took place on November 8, 1892. All contemporary 44 states were part of the 1892 United States presidential election. Florida voters chose four electors to the Electoral College, which selected the president and vice president.

References

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  2. Key, Valdimer Orlando (1949). Southern Politics in State and Nation. pp. 20–25.
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  16. Johnston, Ben B. (October 25, 1948). "Virginia". The Miami News . Miami, Florida. p. 8.
  17. Tucker, Ray (November 1, 1948). "Truman Whistling in a White House Graveyard, Says Tucker, Predicting It'll Be a Dewey Sweep". Mount Vernon Argus. Mount Vernon, New York. p. 8.
  18. Gallup, George (November 1, 1948). "Final Gallup Poll Shows Dewey Winning Election with Wide Electoral Vote Margin". Oakland Tribune . Oakland, California. pp. 1–2.
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  20. "1948 Presidential Election Popular Vote". Géoelections. (.xlsx file for €15)
  21. "Popular Vote for Strom Thurmond". Géoelections. (.xlsx file for €15)
  22. "Popular Vote for Henry Wallace". Géoelections. (.xlsx file for €15)
  23. Mosteller, Frederick (1949). The pre-election polls of 1948; report to the Committee on Analysis of Pre-election Polls and Forecasts. New York City: Social Science Research Council. Committee on Analysis of Pre-election Polls and Forecasts. p. 27.
  24. Atkinson, Frank B. (2006). The Dynamic Dominion: Realignment and the Rise of Two-party Competition in Virginia, 1945-1980. Rowman & Littlefield. ISBN   9780742552098.
  25. 1 2 Menendez, Albert J. (2005). The Geography of Presidential Elections in the United States, 1868-2004. pp. 327–331. ISBN   0786422173.

Works cited