2020 United States presidential election in Idaho

Main article: 2020 United States presidential election

2020 United States presidential election in Idaho

←  2016 November 3, 2020 2024  →
Turnout	81.2% (of registered voters)
Nominee Donald Trump Joe Biden Party Republican Democratic Home state Florida Delaware Running mate Mike Pence Kamala Harris Electoral vote 4 0 Popular vote 554,119 287,021 Percentage 63.89% 33.09%
County results Precinct results Trump   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%   80–90%   90–100% Biden   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%   80–90% No Data
President before election Donald Trump Republican Elected President Joe Biden Democratic

The 2020 United States presidential election in Idaho was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. ^[1] Idaho voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Idaho has four electoral votes in the Electoral College. ^[2]

Trump easily carried Idaho on Election Day, winning 63.9% of the vote to Biden’s 33.1%. Trump's percentage was higher than the 59.2% he received in 2016 due to the lack of third-party voters (namely Evan McMullin of neighboring Utah), but his margin of victory slightly declined, shrinking from 31.8% in 2016 to 30.8% in 2020.

Prior to the election, all news organizations expected Trump to win the state handily. Idaho is one of the most staunchly Republican states in the nation, and has not backed a Democrat for President since 1964, when Lyndon B. Johnson very narrowly carried the state amidst a national landslide.

Trump carried 41 of the state's 44 counties. Biden won Blaine County, home to Sun Valley and several other prime ski resorts; Latah County, home to the college town of Moscow; and flipped Teton County (which had not been won by the Democratic Party since Barack Obama won it in 2008), adjacent to Teton County, Wyoming. Although he did not carry the state's most populous county, Ada County, home to the rapidly growing state capital Boise, which no Democrat has carried since Franklin D. Roosevelt's 1936 landslide, Biden slightly improved on Barack Obama's 2008 result and lost Ada by less than four points. Biden's result of 46.4% and his margin of loss in the county were the highest and lowest for a Democratic presidential nominee since 1940, when Roosevelt won 49% of the county's vote, consequently losing by less than two points.

Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Trump's strength in Idaho came from white voters, especially those in rural areas, who comprised 91% of the electorate and backed Trump by 64%–32%. Trump also received strong support from Caucasian Protestants, who backed him with 71% of their vote. ^[3]

Primary elections

The primary elections were on March 10, 2020.

Republican primary

This section is transcluded from 2020 Idaho Republican presidential primary. (edit | history)

Incumbent United States President Donald Trump was challenged by five candidates: businessman and perennial candidate Rocky De La Fuente of California, entrepreneur and investor Bob Ely of Massachusetts, entrepreneur and attorney Matthew Matern of Louisiana, former congressman Joe Walsh of Illinois, and former governor Bill Weld of Massachusetts. Walsh withdrew from the race prior to the primary.

2020 Idaho Republican presidential primary ^{[4] [5]}

Candidate	Votes	%	Estimated delegates
Donald Trump	112,373	94.46%	32
Bill Weld	2,486	2.09%	0
Joe Walsh (withdrawn)	2,341	1.97%	0
Matthew Matern	647	0.54%	0
Rocky De La Fuente	637	0.54%	0
Bob Ely	474	0.40%	0
Total	118,311	100%	32

Democratic primary

This section is transcluded from 2020 Idaho Democratic presidential primary. (edit | history)

Bernie Sanders, Joe Biden, and Tulsi Gabbard were the major declared candidates. ^{[6] [7] [8]}

Results by county

  Biden—40–50%

  Biden—50–60%

  Biden—60–70%

  Sanders—40–50%

  Sanders—50–60%

  Tie—30–40%

2020 Idaho Democratic presidential primary ^[9]

Candidate	Votes	%	Delegates [10]
Joe Biden	53,151	48.92	12
Bernie Sanders	46,114	42.44	8
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn) [lower-alpha 1]	2,878	2.65
Michael Bloomberg (withdrawn) [lower-alpha 1]	2,612	2.40
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn) [lower-alpha 2]	1,426	1.31
Tulsi Gabbard	876	0.81
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn) [lower-alpha 2]	774	0.71
Andrew Yang (withdrawn)	310	0.29
Tom Steyer (withdrawn) [lower-alpha 2]	112	0.10
Michael Bennet (withdrawn)	91	0.08
John Delaney (withdrawn)	65	0.06
Marianne Williamson (withdrawn)	57	0.05
Cory Booker (withdrawn)	55	0.05
Julian Castro (withdrawn)	49	0.05
Deval Patrick (withdrawn)	19	0.02
Other candidates	60	0.06
Total	108,649	100%	20

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report [11]	Safe R	November 3, 2020
Inside Elections [12]	Safe R	November 3, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball [13]	Safe R	November 3, 2020
Politico [14]	Safe R	November 3, 2020
RCP [15]	Safe R	November 3, 2020
Niskanen [16]	Safe R	November 3, 2020
CNN [17]	Safe R	November 3, 2020
The Economist [18]	Safe R	November 3, 2020
CBS News [19]	Likely R	November 3, 2020
270towin [20]	Safe R	November 3, 2020
ABC News [21]	Safe R	November 3, 2020
NPR [22]	Likely R	November 3, 2020
NBC News [23]	Safe R	November 3, 2020
538 [24]	Safe R	November 3, 2020

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other/ Undecided [lower-alpha 3]	Margin
FiveThirtyEight	until November 2, 2020	November 3, 2020	38.5%	56.6%	4.9%	Trump +18.1

Polls

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 4]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Jo Jorgensen Libertarian	Other	Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020	909 (LV)	± 4.5%	58% [lower-alpha 5]	40%	-	–	–
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Oct 1–28, 2020	1,799 (LV)	–	58%	40%	-	–	–
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Sep 1–30, 2020	761 (LV)	–	64%	35%	-	–	1%
Spry Strategies/Women's Liberation Front Archived September 27, 2020, at the Wayback Machine	Aug 29 – Sep 1, 2020	600 (LV)	± 4%	60%	34%	-	–	6%
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Aug 1–31, 2020	737 (LV)	–	58%	40%	-	–	2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Jul 1–31, 2020	671 (LV)	–	63%	35%	-	–	2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Jun 8–30, 2020	266 (LV)	–	58%	41%	-	–	1%

Electoral slates

These slates of electors were nominated by each party in order to vote in the Electoral College should their candidate win the state: ^[25]

Donald Trump and Mike Pence Republican Party	Joe Biden and Kamala Harris Democratic Party	Jo Jorgensen and Spike Cohen Libertarian Party	Kanye West and Michelle Tidball Independent	Brock Pierce and Karla Ballard Independent	Don Blankenship and William Mohr Constitution Party	Rocky De La Fuente and Darcy Richardson Independent
Rod Beck Raul Labrador Janice McGeachin Melinda Smyser	Cherie Buckner-Webb Maryanne Jordan Elaine Smith Mary Lou Reed	Elizabeth Clark Dan Karlan Aaron Mason Cathy Smith	Ryan Andrew Fauvell Julia Hurst Adriel Martinez Megan Shoemaker	Zachary Todd Hanna Terrel Hill Christopher Kreighbaum Ryan Lyden	Brendan Gomez David Hartigan Tony Ullrich Ray Writz	Nick Carannante Tim Guy Shawn Satterthwaite Daryl Yandell

Results

2020 United States presidential election in Idaho ^{[26] [27]}

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Donald Trump Mike Pence	554,119	63.84%	+4.58
	Democratic	Joe Biden Kamala Harris	287,021	33.07%	+5.60
	Libertarian	Jo Jorgensen Spike Cohen	16,404	1.89%	−2.21
	Independent	Kanye West Michelle Tidball	3,632	0.42%	+0.42
	Independent	Brock Pierce Karla Ballard	2,808	0.32%	+0.32
	Constitution	Don Blankenship William Mohr	1,806	0.22%	−0.12
	Independent	Rocky De La Fuente Darcy Richardson	1,491	0.17%	−0.03
	Green	Howie Hawkins (write-in) Angela Walker (write-in)	407	0.05%	−1.17
	American Solidarity	Brian Carroll (write-in) Amar Patel (write-in)	163	0.02%	N/A
	Socialism and Liberation	Gloria La Riva (write-in) Sunil Freeman (write-in)	49	0.01%	N/A
	Independent	Jade Simmons (write-in) Claudeliah Roze (write-in)	21	0.00%	N/A
	Independent	Other (write-in)	13	0.00%	N/A
Total votes			867,934	100.00%

By county

County	Donald Trump Republican		Joe Biden Democratic		Various candidates Other parties		Margin		Total
	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%
Ada	130,699	49.98%	120,539	46.10%	10,250	3.92%	10,160	3.88%	261,488
Adams	1,941	75.06%	591	22.85%	54	2.09%	1,350	52.21%	2,586
Bannock	23,331	58.65%	14,682	36.91%	1,770	4.44%	8,649	21.74%	39,783
Bear Lake	2,914	87.88%	350	10.55%	52	1.57%	2,564	77.33%	3,316
Benewah	3,878	77.95%	977	19.64%	120	2.41%	2,901	58.31%	4,975
Bingham	15,295	76.49%	4,124	20.62%	577	2.89%	11,171	55.87%	19,996
Blaine	4,032	30.34%	8,919	67.12%	338	2.54%	-4,887	-36.78%	13,289
Boise	3,485	72.27%	1,204	24.97%	133	2.76%	2,281	47.30%	4,822
Bonner	18,369	67.16%	8,310	30.38%	673	2.46%	10,059	36.78%	27,352
Bonneville	37,805	69.97%	14,254	26.38%	1,975	3.65%	23,551	43.59%	54,034
Boundary	4,937	78.15%	1,220	19.31%	160	2.54%	3,717	58.84%	6,317
Butte	1,202	84.95%	188	13.29%	25	1.76%	1,014	71.66%	1,415
Camas	507	75.22%	149	22.11%	18	2.67%	358	53.11%	674
Canyon	61,759	68.27%	25,881	28.61%	2,817	3.12%	35,878	39.66%	90,457
Caribou	2,906	85.07%	431	12.62%	79	2.31%	2,475	72.45%	3,416
Cassia	7,907	82.09%	1,464	15.20%	261	2.71%	6,443	66.89%	9,632
Clark	264	84.89%	41	13.18%	6	1.93%	223	71.71%	311
Clearwater	3,453	78.14%	877	19.85%	89	2.01%	2,576	58.29%	4,419
Custer	2,089	76.27%	603	22.02%	47	1.71%	1,486	54.25%	2,739
Elmore	7,246	70.95%	2,601	25.47%	366	3.58%	4,645	45.48%	10,213
Franklin	5,845	87.71%	657	9.86%	162	2.43%	5,188	77.85%	6,664
Fremont	5,548	82.55%	998	14.85%	175	2.60%	4,550	67.70%	6,721
Gem	7,951	79.65%	1,803	18.06%	229	2.29%	6,148	61.59%	9,983
Gooding	4,659	76.98%	1,256	29.75%	137	2.27%	3,403	56.23%	6,052
Idaho	7,826	81.44%	1,561	16.24%	223	2.32%	6,265	65.20%	9,610
Jefferson	12,099	85.32%	1,661	11.71%	420	2.97%	10,438	73.61%	14,180
Jerome	5,734	73.14%	1,893	24.15%	213	2.71%	3,841	48.99%	7,840
Kootenai	62,837	69.91%	24,312	27.05%	2,729	3.04%	38,525	42.86%	89,878
Latah	9,472	45.96%	10,236	49.67%	902	4.37%	-764	-3.61%	20,610
Lemhi	3,592	75.80%	1,032	21.78%	115	2.42%	2,560	54.02%	4,739
Lewis	1,489	79.63%	349	18.66%	32	1.71%	1,140	60.97%	1,870
Lincoln	1,469	75.68%	414	21.33%	58	2.99%	1,055	54.35%	1,941
Madison	13,559	79.12%	2,666	15.56%	912	5.32%	10,893	63.56%	17,137
Minidoka	6,265	78.38%	1,550	19.39%	178	2.23%	4,715	58.99%	7,993
Nez Perce	13,738	65.47%	6,686	31.86%	561	2.67%	7,052	33.61%	20,985
Oneida	2,148	87.60%	249	10.15%	55	2.25%	1,899	77.45%	2,452
Owyhee	3,819	80.52%	816	17.20%	108	2.28%	3,003	63.32%	4,743
Payette	8,862	78.47%	2,161	19.14%	270	2.39%	6,701	59.33%	11,293
Power	2,116	68.57%	865	28.03%	105	3.40%	1,251	40.54%	3,086
Shoshone	4,216	69.70%	1,693	27.99%	140	2.31%	2,523	41.71%	6,049
Teton	2,858	44.92%	3,318	52.15%	186	2.93%	-460	-7.23%	6,362
Twin Falls	25,897	70.93%	9,391	25.72%	1,224	3.35%	16,506	45.21%	36,512
Valley	3,947	55.88%	2,976	42.14%	140	1.98%	971	13.74%	7,063
Washington	4,154	77.70%	1,073	20.07%	119	2.23%	3,081	57.63%	5,346
Totals	554,119	63.67%	287,021	32.98%	29,203	3.25%	267,098	30.69%	870,343

Swing by county

Legend

•   Democratic — +7.5-10%
•   Democratic — +5-7.5%
•   Democratic — +2.5-5%
•   Democratic — +0-2.5%
•   Republican — +0-2.5%
•   Republican — +2.5-5%
•   Republican — +5-7.5%
•   Republican — +7.5-10%
•   Republican — +10-12.5%
•   Republican — +12.5-15%
•   Republican — +>15%

County flips

Legend

• Democratic   Hold   Gain from Republican

  Republican   Hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

• Teton (largest municipality: Victor)

By congressional district

Trump won both congressional districts.

District	Trump	Biden	Representative
1st	67.1%	30.1%	Russ Fulcher
2nd	60.1%	36.6%	Mike Simpson

See also

• United States presidential elections in Idaho
• Presidency of Joe Biden
• 2020 Idaho elections
• 2020 United States presidential election
• 2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries
• 2020 Republican Party presidential primaries
• 2020 United States elections

Notes

1. Candidate withdrew during early voting following Super Tuesday.
2. Candidate withdrew during early voting before Super Tuesday.
3. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
4. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear
5. Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size

References

1. Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?" . The Independent . Archived from the original on August 2, 2018. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
2. "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration . Retrieved January 3, 2019.
3. "Idaho Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN   0362-4331 . Retrieved November 9, 2020.
4. "Official Election Results". Secretary of State of Idaho . June 2, 2020. Retrieved November 28, 2020.
5. "Idaho Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved March 11, 2020.
6. Taylor, Kate (February 9, 2019). "Elizabeth Warren Formally Announces 2020 Presidential Bid in Lawrence, Mass". The New York Times. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
7. Zhou, Li (January 21, 2019). "Kamala Harris announces her historic 2020 presidential campaign". Vox. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
8. Detrow, Scott (February 1, 2019). "Cory Booker Makes It Official: He's Running For President In 2020". NPR. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
9. "2020 Presidential Primary – OFFICIAL ELECTION RESULTS". Idaho Elections Department. Retrieved June 11, 2020.
10. "2020 Presidential Primaries, Caucuses, and Conventions: Idaho Democrat". The Green Papers. Retrieved July 4, 2020.
11. "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
12. "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
13. "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
14. "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
15. "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
16. 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions Archived April 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine , Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.
17. David Chalian; Terence Burlij (June 11, 2020). "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
18. "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
19. "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
20. "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
21. "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
22. Montanaro, Domenico (August 3, 2020). "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
23. "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. August 6, 2020. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
24. "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. August 12, 2020. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
25. "Idaho Certificate of Ascertainment" (PDF). State of Idaho. Retrieved December 6, 2020.
26. "2020 General Election Candidate List". Idaho Secretary of State. Retrieved September 17, 2020.
27. "2020 General Election Results". Idaho Secretary of State. Retrieved December 13, 2020.

Further reading

• Summary: State Laws on Presidential Electors (PDF), Washington DC: National Association of Secretaries of State, August 2020, Idaho

External links

• Government Documents Round Table of the American Library Association, "Idaho", Voting & Elections Toolkits
• "Idaho: Election Tools, Deadlines, Dates, Rules, and Links", Vote.org , Oakland, CA
• "League of Women Voters of Idaho". (State affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
• Idaho at Ballotpedia