2024 United States presidential election in Idaho

Last updated

2024 United States presidential election in Idaho
Flag of Idaho.svg
←  2020 November 5, 20242028 →
Turnout77.8% (of registered voters) Decrease2.svg [1]
  TrumpPortrait (3x4a).jpg Kamala Harris Vice Presidential Portrait (cropped).jpg
Nominee Donald J. Trump Kamala Harris
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida California
Running mate JD Vance Tim Walz
Electoral vote40
Popular vote605,246274,972
Percentage66.87%30.38%
Idaho Presidential Election Results 2024.svg
2022 U.S. House elections in Idaho.svg
ID President 2024.svg
President before election

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elected President

Donald J. Trump
Republican

The 2024 United States presidential election in Idaho took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Idaho voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Idaho has 4 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat. [2]

Contents

Prior to the election, all major news organizations considered Idaho a solid red state; a sparsely populated Mountain state with an overwhelmingly White populace and an evangelical predominance, Idaho is one of the most staunchly conservative states in the U.S., with the only Democratic presidential candidate to carry the state after Harry Truman in 1948 being landslide winner Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964, and Republicans having never won the state's electoral votes by less than 13% since.

As expected, Republican Donald J. Trump overwhelmingly won Idaho, taking 66.9% of the vote to Democrat Kamala Harris' 30.4% and winning the state by 36.5%, well above his 30.8% in 2020 and his 31.8% in 2016, and the widest presidential margin of victory in Idaho since George W. Bush's 38.1% in 2004. Idaho was Trump's third strongest state nationwide, only behind West Virginia and neighboring Wyoming.

This was the first election in which Teton County, Idaho voted for a Democrat who lost the presidential election.

Primary elections

The Idaho Legislature passed HB 138 during the 2023 legislative session, resulting in the elimination of the state-run primary for all parties. The legislature did not restore the state-run primary by the October 1 deadline, and both the major parties in the state opted to operate and fund firehouse nominations for president. [3]

Republican primary

The Idaho Republican primary was held on March 2, 2024, alongside primaries in Hawaii, Mississippi, Missouri, and Washington.

Idaho Republican caucus, March 2, 2024 [4] [5]
CandidateVotesPercentageActual delegate count
BoundUnboundTotal
Donald Trump 33,60384.89%32032
Nikki Haley 5,22113.18%000
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn)5341.35%000
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn)950.24%000
Chris Christie (withdrawn)910.23%000
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn)400.10%000
Total39,584100.00%32032

Democratic caucuses

The Idaho Democratic presidential caucuses were held on May 23, 2024.

Idaho Democratic caucus, May 23, 2024 [6]
CandidateVotesPercentageActual delegate count
PledgedUnpledgedTotal
Joe Biden (incumbent)2,29795.2%23
Marianne Williamson 793.3%
Dean Phillips (withdrawn)140.6%
David Olscamp140.6%
Jason Palmer (withdrawn)50.2%
Armando Perez-Serrato30.1%
Total:2,412100.0%23427

General election

Candidates

The official list of certified candidates was finalized by Idaho secretary of state Phil McGrane on September 4, 2024, with the following nine candidates qualifying: [7]

Despite Terry being the nominee of the national Constitution Party, the state party dissented and chose to nominate Joel Skousen. Terry then petitioned to appear on the ballot as an independent candidate. [8]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
Cook Political Report [9] Solid RDecember 19, 2023
Inside Elections [10] Solid RApril 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball [11] Safe RJune 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill [12] Safe RDecember 14, 2023
CNalysis [13] Solid RDecember 30, 2023
CNN [14] Solid RJanuary 14, 2024
The Economist [15] Safe RJune 12, 2024
538 [16] Solid RJune 11, 2024
RCP [17] Solid RJune 26, 2024
NBC News [18] Safe ROctober 6, 2024

Polling

Hypothetical polling with Donald J. Trump and Joe Biden

Donald J. Trump vs. Joe Biden

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Donald J.
Trump
Republican		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Other /
Undecided
July 21, 2024Joe Biden withdraws from the race.
John Zogby Strategies [19] [A] April 13–21, 2024309 (LV)–60%30%10%
Emerson College [20] October 1–4, 2023490 (RV)± 4.4%55%26%19%
Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Donald J. Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Donald J.
Trump
Republican		Robert
Kennedy Jr.
Independent		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies [19] [A] April 13–21, 2024309 (LV)–54%32%14%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Robert
Kennedy Jr.
Independent		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies [19] [A] April 13–21, 2024309 (LV)–60%25%15%

Results

2024 United States presidential election in Idaho [21]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican
605,246 66.87% Increase2.svg 3.03%
Democratic
274,97230.38%Decrease2.svg 2.69%
Independent
12,8121.42%N/A
Libertarian
4,4620.49%Decrease2.svg 1.40%
Green
2,9730.33%Increase2.svg 0.28%
Constitution
1,5770.17%Decrease2.svg 0.05%
Socialism and Liberation
1,2300.14%Increase2.svg 0.13%
Independent
1,0260.11%N/A
Independent
5140.1%N/A
American Solidarity Peter Sonski (write-in)
Lauren Onak (write-in)		2420.03%Increase2.svg 0.01%
Independent Other
(write-in)		30.00%Steady2.svg
Total votes905,057 100.00% N/A

By county

County [22] Donald J. Trump
Republican		Kamala Harris
Democratic		Various candidates
Other parties		MarginTotal
#%#%#%#%
Ada 143,75953.76%116,11643.42%7,5442.82%27,64310.34%267,419
Adams 2,03775.98%57721.52%672.50%1,46054.46%2,681
Bannock 24,32960.86%14,30635.79%1,3413.35%10,02325.07%39,976
Bear Lake 2,90887.46%34610.41%712.13%2,56277.05%3,325
Benewah 4,09479.57%93518.17%1162.26%3,15961.40%5,145
Bingham 16,18878.39%3,87818.78%5852.83%12,31059.61%20,651
Blaine 4,28132.71%8,42464.36%3842.93%-4,143-31.65%13,089
Boise 3,72775.91%1,06521.69%1182.40%2,66254.22%4,910
Bonner 21,35271.87%7,65025.75%7082.38%13,70246.12%29,710
Bonneville 40,05370.97%14,45825.62%1,9253.41%25,59545.35%56,436
Boundary 5,79481.49%1,14516.10%1712.41%4,64965.39%7,110
Butte 1,26884.87%18512.38%412.75%1,08372.49%1,494
Camas 54775.14%15321.02%283.84%39454.12%728
Canyon 72,75572.01%25,66925.41%2,6062.58%47,08646.60%101,030
Caribou 2,90684.09%44512.88%1053.03%2,46171.21%3,456
Cassia 7,95983.27%1,35914.22%2402.51%6,60069.05%9,558
Clark 28084.08%5015.02%30.90%23069.06%333
Clearwater 3,55080.32%77417.51%962.17%2,77662.81%4,420
Custer 1,99875.40%58622.11%662.49%1,41253.29%2,650
Elmore 7,79173.00%2,61124.47%2702.53%5,18048.53%10,672
Franklin 6,27987.40%7039.79%2022.81%5,57677.61%7,184
Fremont 5,64582.98%95414.02%2043.00%4,69168.96%6,803
Gem 8,70781.99%1,69916.00%2142.01%7,00865.99%10,620
Gooding 4,67679.01%1,10018.59%1422.40%3,57660.42%5,918
Idaho 8,14882.58%1,46014.80%2592.62%6,68867.78%9,867
Jefferson 13,48185.21%1,89111.95%4482.84%11,59073.26%15,820
Jerome 6,01275.66%1,74221.92%1922.42%4,27053.74%7,946
Kootenai 72,05974.78%22,11322.95%2,1932.27%49,94651.83%96,365
Latah 10,66952.14%9,03944.18%7533.68%1,6307.97%20,461
Lemhi 3,71676.24%1,03821.30%1202.46%2,67854.94%4,874
Lewis 1,50381.42%30516.52%382.06%1,19864.90%1,846
Lincoln 1,46676.47%39220.45%593.08%1,07456.02%1,917
Madison 13,92580.20%2,76715.94%6713.86%11,15864.26%17,363
Minidoka 6,40180.54%1,37317.27%1742.19%5,02863.27%7,948
Nez Perce 13,70768.08%5,92829.44%5002.48%7,77938.64%20,135
Oneida 2,11986.24%25310.30%853.46%1,86675.94%2,457
Owyhee 4,10182.85%75615.27%931.88%3,34567.58%4,950
Payette 9,45880.42%2,06417.55%2392.03%7,39462.87%11,761
Power 2,14671.04%78525.98%902.98%1,36145.06%3,021
Shoshone 4,50073.39%1,47224.01%1602.60%3,02849.38%6,132
Teton 3,00544.86%3,46351.70%2303.44%-458-6.84%6,698
Twin Falls 27,30473.04%9,06424.25%1,0152.71%18,24048.79%37,383
Valley 4,21458.20%2,86939.63%1572.17%1,34518.57%7,240
Washington 4,42979.73%1,01018.18%1162.09%3,41961.55%5,555
Totals605,24666.87%274,97230.38%24,8392.74%330,27436.49%905,057

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

2024 Presidential Idaho County Swings.svg
2024 Presidential Idaho County Flips.svg

By congressional district

Trump won both congressional districts. [23]

DistrictTrumpHarrisRepresentative
1st 71.29%26.24% Russ Fulcher
2nd 61.83%35.11% Mike Simpson

Analysis

Trump flipped the Panhandle county of Latah, anchored by the college town of Moscow, becoming the first Republican to win the county since Bush in 2004; and with nearly an 8% margin of victory, having the best showing for a presidential candidate there since Bush's 16.3% margin in 2000. He also became the first Republican to win the White House without winning Teton County since it was established in 1915. He also recovered his margins in larger urban areas, winning Ada County — home to the state capital and largest city Boise — by a double-digit margin for the first time in his electoral history.

See also

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. 1 2 Listed on the ballot without party affiliation.
  3. ↑ Replacement for Butch Ware, Stein's vice presidential nominee.
  4. 1 2 Randall Terry was nominated by the national Constitution Party, though the state party nominated Joel Skousen.

Partisan clients

  1. 1 2 3 Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign

References

  1. ↑ "2024 General Election". State of Idaho Elections Department. Retrieved February 7, 2025.
  2. ↑ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved February 7, 2023.
  3. ↑ Corbin, Clark (October 16, 2023). "Idaho will have a presidential caucus in 2024 — not a primary. Here's how they differ. • Idaho Capital Sun". Idaho Capital Sun. Retrieved July 15, 2024.
  4. ↑ "Declared 2024 Republican Presidential Candidates". Idaho Republican Party . Retrieved December 8, 2023.[ failed verification ]
  5. ↑ "Idaho primary results". Associated Press . March 2, 2024. Retrieved March 2, 2024.
  6. ↑ "Idaho Democratic Caucus Results". NY Times. Retrieved May 23, 2024.
  7. ↑ Corbin, Clark (September 4, 2024). "Nine presidential candidates qualify for Idaho's 2024 general election ballot". States Newsroom . Retrieved September 9, 2024.
  8. ↑ Pruett, Greg (August 5, 2024). "Constitution Party of Idaho Holds Convention, Selects Presidential Nominee". Idaho Dispatch. Retrieved September 9, 2024.
  9. ↑ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  10. ↑ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  11. ↑ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  12. ↑ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  13. ↑ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  14. ↑ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN . Retrieved January 14, 2024.
  15. ↑ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist . Retrieved June 12, 2024.
  16. ↑ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Archived from the original on June 11, 2024. Retrieved June 11, 2024.
  17. ↑ "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.
  18. ↑ "Presidential Election Preview 2024". NBC News.
  19. 1 2 3 "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
  20. ↑ Mumford, Camille (October 11, 2023). "Idaho 2024 Poll: Housing Affordability is a 'Big Problem' in the Gem State". Emerson Polling.
  21. ↑ "Canvass Report" (PDF). VoteIdaho.Gov. November 26, 2024. Retrieved November 30, 2024.
  22. ↑ https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2024&fips=16&f=0&off=0&elect=0
  23. ↑ https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::ebc8cec8-b919-4a66-9b42-9cf5bf7e02a1
This page is based on this Wikipedia article
Text is available under the CC BY-SA 4.0 license; additional terms may apply.
Images, videos and audio are available under their respective licenses.