2024 United States presidential election in Idaho

Main article: 2024 United States presidential election

2024 United States presidential election in Idaho

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Nominee Donald Trump Joe Biden (presumptive) Party Republican Democratic Home state Florida Delaware Running mate J.D. Vance Kamala Harris (presumptive)

Incumbent President Joe Biden Democratic

The 2024 United States presidential election in Idaho is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Idaho voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Idaho has 4 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat. ^[1]

Idaho is a sparsely-populated Mountain state with an overwhelmingly-White population and an evangelical plurality, and thus a conservative stronghold. Since statehood, the only non-Republicans to win Idaho's electoral votes have been Populist James B. Weaver and Democrats William Jennings Bryan, Woodrow Wilson, FDR, Harry Truman, and landslide victor Lyndon B. Johnson. Idaho is indeed one of the most staunchly Republican states in the US, as no presidential Democratic candidate after LBJ's narrow 1964 win has come within 13 percentage points of winning the state; and Republicans have occupied all statewide offices since 2003. Thus, Idaho is expected to be easily won by the Republican candidate (presumably Donald Trump, who comfortably carried the state in the past two election cycles) in 2024.

Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden is running for reelection to a second term. ^[2]

Primary elections

The Idaho Legislature passed HB 138 during the 2023 legislative session, resulting in the elimination of the state-ran primary for all parties. The legislature did not restore the state-ran primary by the October 1 deadline, and both the major parties in the state opted to operate and fund firehouse nominations for president. ^[3]

Republican primary

Main article: 2024 Idaho Republican presidential primary

The Idaho Republican primary was held on March 2, 2024, alongside primaries in Hawaii, Mississippi, Missouri, and Washington.

Idaho Republican caucus, March 2, 2024 ^{[4] [5]}

Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
			Bound	Unbound	Total
Donald Trump	33,603	84.89%	32	0	32
Nikki Haley	5,221	13.18%	0	0	0
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn)	534	1.35%	0	0	0
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn)	95	0.24%	0	0	0
Chris Christie (withdrawn)	91	0.23%	0	0	0
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn)	40	0.10%	0	0	0
Total	39,584	100.00%	32	0	32

Democratic caucuses

Main article: 2024 Idaho Democratic presidential caucuses

The Idaho Democratic presidential caucuses were held on May 23, 2024.

Idaho Democratic caucus, May 23, 2024 ^[6]

Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
			Pledged	Unpledged	Total
Joe Biden (incumbent)	2,297	95.2%	23
Marianne Williamson	79	3.3%
Dean Phillips (withdrawn)	14	0.6%
David Olscamp	14	0.6%
Jason Palmer (withdrawn)	5	0.2%
Armando Perez-Serrato	3	0.1%
Total:	2,412	100.0%	23	4	27

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
Cook Political Report [7]	Solid R	December 19, 2023
Inside Elections [8]	Solid R	April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball [9]	Safe R	June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill [10]	Safe R	December 14, 2023
CNalysis [11]	Solid R	December 30, 2023
CNN [12]	Solid R	January 14, 2024
The Economist [13]	Safe R	June 12, 2024
538 [14]	Solid R	June 11, 2024
RCP [15]	Solid R	June 26, 2024

Polling

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Other / Undecided
Emerson College	October 1–4, 2023	490 (RV)	±4.4%	55%	26%	19%

See also

• United States presidential elections in Idaho
• 2024 United States presidential election
• 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
• 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
• 2024 United States elections

References

1. Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved February 7, 2023.
2. Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC.
3. Corbin, Clark (October 16, 2023). "Idaho will have a presidential caucus in 2024 — not a primary. Here's how they differ. • Idaho Capital Sun". Idaho Capital Sun. Retrieved July 15, 2024.
4. "Declared 2024 Republican Presidential Candidates". Idaho Republican Party . Retrieved December 8, 2023.^{[ failed verification ]}
5. "Idaho primary results". Associated Press . March 2, 2024. Retrieved March 2, 2024.
6. "Idaho Democratic Caucus Results". NY Times. Retrieved May 23, 2024.
7. "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
8. "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
9. "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
10. "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
11. "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
12. "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN . Retrieved January 14, 2024.
13. "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist . Retrieved June 12, 2024.
14. Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved June 11, 2024.
15. "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.