2024 United States presidential election in Florida

Last updated

2024 United States presidential election in Florida
Flag of Florida.svg
←  2020 November 5, 20242028 →
Turnout78.9% (of active registered voters) [1] Increase2.svg 1.73 pp
66.7% (of estimated voting-eligible population) [2]
  TrumpPortrait (cropped).jpg Kamala Harris Vice Presidential Portrait (cropped).jpg
Nominee Donald Trump Kamala Harris
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida California
Running mate JD Vance Tim Walz
Electoral vote300
Popular vote6,110,1254,683,038
Percentage56.09%42.99%
Florida Presidential Election Results 2024.svg
Florida 2024 US Presidential Election By Congressional District.svg
Florida 2024 Pres.svg
President before election

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

The 2024 United States presidential election in Florida was held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Florida voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Florida has 30 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state gained a seat. [3] This gave Florida the third-most electoral votes in the country, which marked the first time it carried more weight than New York (28 electoral votes) in a presidential election.

Contents

A heavily populated South Atlantic state, Florida had previously been considered a crucial swing state and a bellwether in past elections, but has shifted significantly to the political right, with Trump's double-digit margin of victory solidifying it as a safe red state. Florida has two large distinct cultural areas: North Florida and the Florida Panhandle are part of the conservative Deep South, and South Florida has a heavy Latin American influence with large Catholic Cuban, Haitian, Central American and South American populations in the Miami metropolitan area.

Trump defeated Harris in Florida by 13.1 percentage points, the biggest margin of victory for a candidate in the state since 1988. Trump also received the most votes for a political candidate ever in the state, breaking his previous record from 2020, and marking the first time since 1984 that a Republican won the state with a margin of over one million votes. Trump's overall total of 6.1 million votes was the second-highest total number of votes he received in any state in the country in 2024, only behind his 6.4 million in Texas.

Primary elections

Republican primary

The Florida Republican primary was held on March 19, 2024, alongside primaries in Arizona, Illinois, and Ohio.

Florida Republican primary, March 19, 2024 [4]
CandidateVotesPercentageActual delegate count
BoundUnboundTotal
Donald Trump 911,42481.19%1250125
Nikki Haley (withdrawn)155,56013.86%000
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn)41,2693.68%000
Chris Christie (withdrawn)8,9530.80%000
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn)2,8500.25%000
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn)1,3850.12%000
Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn)1,1900.11%000
Total:1,122,631100.00%1250125

Democratic primary

On November 30, 2023, Politico reported that the Florida Democratic Party had only submitted Biden's name to the Secretary of State, which means that the primary would be cancelled under Florida law. This cancellation was criticized by the Dean Phillips and Marianne Williamson campaigns. [5] [6] Williamson and fellow Democratic candidate Cenk Uygur held a press conference over Zoom on December 1 criticizing the move. [7] On December 11, 2023, a voter filed a lawsuit in federal court seeking to add Phillips's, Williamson's, and Uygur's names to the ballot. [8] The voter lost in district court. [9]

Winner (Assumptive)

Endorsements

Joe Biden

U.S. Representatives

State legislators

Hypothetical polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [b] 		Margin
of error		Joe
Biden		Hillary
Clinton		Kamala
Harris		Gavin
Newsom		Undecided
Suffolk University [14] Sep 15–18, 2022163 (LV)–50%––33%17%
Suffolk University [15] Jan 26–29, 2022164 (LV)–43%46%––11%
Victory Insights [16] Sep 16–18, 2021200 (LV)–60%–17%–23%

General election

Trump assassination attempt

On September 15, 2024, Trump survived an assassination attempt while golfing at Trump International Golf Club in West Palm Beach, Florida. 58-year-old Ryan Wesley Routh was spotted hiding in nearby shrubbery while aiming a rifle at a member of Trump's security detail. [17] A Secret Service agent fired upon Routh, who fled the scene and was later captured in Martin County. [18] The incident occurred two months after Trump survived a previous assassination attempt while speaking at a campaign rally near Butler, Pennsylvania.

Candidates

The following presidential candidates have received ballot access in Florida: [19]

In addition, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. withdrew his name from the ballot after he suspended his campaign. [20]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [21] Likely RAugust 27, 2024
Inside Elections [22] Lean RAugust 29, 2024
Sabato's Crystal Ball [23] Likely RAugust 20, 2024
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill [24] Likely ROctober 21, 2024
CNalysis [25] Likely RNovember 4, 2024
CNN [26] Lean RSeptember 1, 2024
The Economist [27] Likely RJune 12, 2024
538 [28] Likely ROctober 8, 2024
NBC News [29] Likely ROctober 6, 2024
YouGov [30] Lean ROctober 16, 2024
Split Ticket [31] Likely RNovember 1, 2024

Polling

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		Kamala
Harris
Democratic		Donald
Trump
Republican		Undecided
[c] 		Margin
270ToWin [32] October 23 – November 4, 2024November 4, 202444.6%51.1%4.3%Trump +6.5%
538 [33] through November 4, 2024November 4, 202444.6%51.2%4.2%Trump +6.6%
Silver Bulletin [34] through November 3, 2024November 3, 202444.8%51.3%3.9%Trump +6.5%
The Hill/DDHQ [35] through November 3, 2024November 3, 202444.9%51.6%3.2%Trump +6.7%
Average44.7%51.3%4.0%Trump +6.6%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [b] 		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump
Republican		Kamala
Harris
Democratic		Other /
Undecided
Research Co. [36] November 2–3, 2024450 (LV)± 4.6%51%44%5%
Victory Insights [37] November 1–2, 2024400 (LV)–51%47%2% [d]
Stetson University [38] [39] October 25 – November 1, 2024452 (LV)± 5.0%53%46%1% [e]
Morning Consult [40] October 23 − November 1, 20242,022 (LV)± 2.0%51%46%3%
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University [41] October 19–27, 2024913 (RV)± 3.2%53%44%3% [f]
897 (LV)53%44%3% [f]
ActiVote [42] October 11–27, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%56%44%–
St. Pete Polls [43] [A] October 23–25, 20241,227 (LV)± 2.8%50%45%5% [g]
CES/YouGov [44] October 1–25, 20245,952 (A)–51%47%2%
5,916 (LV)52%46%2%
Hunt Research [45] [B] October 16–22, 20241,234 (LV)± 2.8%50%45%5%
Emerson College [46] October 18–20, 2024860 (LV)± 3.3%52%44%4% [h]
54% [i] 46%–
Cherry Communications (R) [47] [C] October 10–20, 2024614 (LV)± 4.0%51%45%4%
ActiVote [48] October 7–20, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%55%45%–
University of North Florida [49] October 7–18, 2024977 (LV)± 3.5%53%43%4% [j]
RMG Research [50] [D] October 14–17, 2024788 (LV)± 3.5%52%45%3% [k]
52% [i] 47%1%
Rose Institute/YouGov [51] October 7–17, 20241,094 (RV)± 3.5%50%45%7% [l]
1,094 (RV)51% [i] 46%3%
1,076 (LV)51%46%3%
The Terrance Group (R) [52] [E] October 5–8, 2024818 (RV)± 3.5%51%44%5%
Marist College [53] October 3–7, 20241,410 (RV)± 3.3%51%47%2% [m]
1,257 (LV)± 3.6%51%47%2% [m]
New York Times/Siena College [54] September 29 – October 6, 2024622 (LV)± 5.0%55%41%4%
ActiVote [55] September 17 – October 6, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%53%47%–
Mason-Dixon [56] [F] October 1–4, 2024625 (RV)± 4.0%49%43%8% [n]
RMG Research [57] [D] September 25–27, 2024774 (LV)± 3.5%50%47%3% [k]
50% [i] 48%2%
Public Policy Polling (D) [58] [G] September 25–26, 2024800 (RV)± 3.5%50%46%4%
Victory Insights [59] September 22–25, 2024600 (LV)± 4.4%47%45%8%
The Bullfinch Group [60] [H] September 20–23, 2024600 (RV)± 4.0%48%47%5%
Morning Consult [40] September 9−18, 20242,948 (LV)± 2.0%50%47%3%
Morning Consult [40] August 30 – September 8, 20243,182 (LV)± 2.0%49%47%4%
Emerson College [61] September 3–5, 2024815 (LV)± 3.4%50%45%5%
51% [i] 48%1% [h]
ActiVote [62] August 16–31, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%53%47%–
Cherry Communications (R) [63] [C] August 15–26, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%52%45%3%
Public Policy Polling (D) [64] [G] August 21–22, 2024837 (RV)± 3.4%51%47%2%
ActiVote [65] August 5–15, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%54%46%–
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University [66] August 10–11, 20241,055 (RV)± 3.0%49%46%5% [o]
1,040 (LV)50%47%3% [f]
University of North Florida [67] July 24–27, 2024774 (LV)± 4.6%49%42%9% [p]
July 21, 2024Kamala Harris declares her candidacy.
InsiderAdvantage (R) [68] [I] July 15–16, 2024800 (LV)± 4.0%49%39%12% [q]
Suffolk University/USA Today [14] September 15–18, 2022500 (LV)–46%44%10%
Victory Insights [16] September 16–18, 2021450 (LV)± 4.6%49%51%–

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [b] 		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump
Republican		Kamala
Harris
Democratic		Cornel
West
Independent		Jill
Stein
Green		Chase
Oliver
Libertarian		Other /
Undecided
Focaldata [69] October 3 – November 1, 20241,250 (LV)–52%45%–0%0%3%
1,099 (RV)± 2.8%50%46%–1%0%3%
1,250 (A)–49%47%–1%0%3%
Cygnal (R) [70] October 26–28, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%48%43%–1%1%7% [r]
Hunt Research [45] [B] October 16–22, 20241,234 (LV)± 2.8%50%44%–0%0%6%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [71] October 16–18, 20241,275 (LV)–49%45%–0%1%6%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [72] October 12–14, 20241,009 (LV)–50%44%–1%0%5%
New York Times/Siena College [54] September 29 – October 6, 2024622 (LV)± 5.0%53%40%–0%1%6%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [73] September 27 – October 2, 20242,946 (LV)–49%45%–1%1%4%
Public Policy Polling (D) [58] [G] September 25–26, 2024800 (RV)± 3.5%49%45%0%1%–5%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [74] September 16–19, 20241,602 (LV)–50%45%–0%1%4%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [75] September 6–9, 20241,465 (LV)–50%44%–0%0%6%
Hypothetical polling with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [b] 		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump
Republican		Kamala
Harris
Democratic		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent		Cornel
West
Independent		Jill
Stein
Green		Chase
Oliver
Libertarian		Other /
Undecided
New York Times/Siena College [54] September 29 – October 6, 2024622 (LV)± 5.0%53%40%0%0%0%1%6%
August 23, 2024Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump.
Public Policy Polling (D) [64] [G] August 21–22, 2024837 (RV)± 3.4%48%45%2%1%1%–3%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [76] August 12–15, 20241,296 (LV)–48%43%3%–0%1%5%
Suffolk University/USA Today [77] [J] August 7–11, 2024500 (LV)± 4.4%47%42%5%0%0%1%5%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [78] July 31 – August 3, 2024976 (LV)–47%41%5%–0%1%6%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [79] July 22–24, 2024572 (LV)–47%39%5%–0%1%8%

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [b] 		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump
Republican		Kamala
Harris
Democratic		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent		Other /
Undecided
August 23, 2024Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump.
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University [80] August 10–11, 20241,055 (RV)± 3.0%47%44%5%4% [f]
1,040 (LV)47%45%5%3% [f]
McLaughlin & Associates (R) [81] [K] August 6–8, 2024800 (LV)–52%44%3%1%
Hypothetical polling with Donald Trump and Joe Biden

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [b] 		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump
Republican		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Other /
Undecided
July 21, 2024Joe Biden withdraws from the race.
InsiderAdvantage (R) [68] [I] July 15–16, 2024800 (LV)± 4.0%50%44%6% [s]
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University [82] June 8–9, 2024883 (RV)± 3.3%46%42%13%
771 (LV)49%43%8%
The Tyson Group (R) [83] June 6–9, 20241,050 (LV)± 3.0%46%36%18%
Fox News [84] June 1–4, 20241,075 (RV)± 3.0%50%46%4%
CBS News/YouGov [85] May 10–16, 20241,209 (RV)± 3.9%54%45%1%
Prime Group [86] [L] May 9–16, 2024486 (RV)–53%47%–
Cherry Communications (R) [87] [C] April 28 – May 7, 2024609 (RV)± 4.0%51%42%7%
John Zogby Strategies [88] [M] April 13–21, 2024749 (LV)–51%42%7%
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University [89] April 15–17, 2024865 (RV)± 3.3%50%42%8%
815 (LV)51%43%6%
Emerson College [90] April 9–10, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%51%38%11%
56% [i] 44%–
St. Pete Polls [91] March 11–13, 20241,963 (LV)± 2.2%48%42%10%
Cygnal (R) [92] November 13–15, 2023800 (LV)± 3.4%48%43%9%
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University [93] October 27 – November 11, 2023946 (RV)± 3.2%49%39%12%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [94] October 7–9, 20231,100 (RV)–44%39%17%
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University [95] June 27 – July 1, 2023933 (RV)± 3.2%49%39%2%
Metropolitan Research Services [96] March 15–19, 20231,001 (RV)–47%43%10%
Emerson College [97] March 13–15, 20231,153 (RV)± 2.8%44%44%12%
University of North Florida [98] February 25 – March 7, 20231,452 (RV)± 2.6%50%43%7%
Victory Insights [99] November 16–17, 2022600 (LV)± 4.1%49%51%–
Rasmussen Reports (R) [100] [N] November 8–9, 20221,224 (LV)± 3.0%49%40%11%
Florida Atlantic University [101] October 12–16, 2022719 (LV)± 3.7%45%41%14%
Suffolk University [14] September 15–18, 2022500 (LV)–47%44%9%
Echelon Insights [102] August 31 – September 7, 2022815 (LV)± 4.3%49%41%10%
Suffolk University [103] January 26–29, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%47%44%9%
Victory Insights [16] September 16–18, 2021450 (LV)± 4.6%49%51%–
St. Pete Polls [104] [A] August 16–17, 20212,068 (RV)± 2.2%47%48%5%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) [105] [O] August 4–10, 2021700 (RV)± 3.7%42%50%8%

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [b] 		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump
Republican		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent		Cornel
West
Independent		Jill
Stein
Green		Other /
Undecided
July 21, 2024Joe Biden withdraws from the race.
Fox News [84] June 1–4, 20241,075 (RV)± 3.0%47%40%7%2%1%3%
Prime Group [86] [L] May 9–16, 2024486 (RV)–48%39%9%3%1%–
Emerson College [90] April 9–10, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%49%35%6%1%1%8%

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [b] 		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump
Republican		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent		Other /
Undecided
July 21, 2024Joe Biden withdraws from the race.
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University [82] June 8–9, 2024883 (A)± 3.3%43%37%10%10%
771 (LV)45%40%8%6%
Cherry Communications (R) [87] [C] April 28 – May 7, 2024609 (RV)± 4.0%46%37%10%7%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [106] May 2–4, 2024586 (LV)± 3.7%47%38%6%9%
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University [89] April 15–17, 2024865 (RV)± 3.3%48%38%7%7%
815 (LV)49%40%6%5%
USA Today/Ipsos [107] April 5–7, 20241,014 (A)± 4.1%39%31%7%23%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [108] March 14–17, 2024815 (LV)–46%39%7%8%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [109] December 28–30, 20231,147 (LV)–45%34%9%12%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [110] November 27–29, 2023897 (LV)–44%34%9%13%
Cygnal (R) [92] November 13–15, 2023800 (LV)± 3.4%44%37%11%8%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [94] October 7–9, 20231100 (LV)–44%37%8%11%
Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [b] 		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump
Republican		Robert
Kennedy Jr.
Independent		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies [88] [M] April 13–21, 2024749 (LV)–48%37%15%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [b] 		Margin
of error		Robert
Kennedy Jr.
Independent		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies [88] [M] April 13–21, 2024749 (LV)–47%40%13%

Donald Trump vs. Hillary Clinton

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [b] 		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump
Republican		Hillary
Clinton
Democratic		Other /
Undecided
Suffolk University [103] January 26–29, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%49%42%9%

Nikki Haley vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [b] 		Margin
of error		Nikki
Haley
Republican		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent		Other /
Undecided
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [110] November 27–29, 2023897 (LV)–27%32%16%24%

Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [b] 		Margin
of error		Ron
DeSantis
Republican		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent		Other /
Undecided
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [110] November 27–29, 2023897 (LV)–38%34%12%16%

Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [b] 		Margin
of error		Ron
DeSantis
Republican		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Other /
Undecided
Cygnal (R) [92] November 13–15, 2023800 (LV)± 3.4%46%43%11%
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University [93] October 27 – November 11, 2023946 (RV)± 3.2%47%39%15%
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University [95] June 27 – July 1, 2023933 (RV)± 3.2%49%36%15%
Emerson College [97] March 13–15, 20231,153 (RV)± 2.8%46%43%11%
University of North Florida [98] February 25 – March 7, 20231,452 (RV)± 2.6%51%42%8%
Cherry Communications [111] [C] February 10–19, 2023608 (LV)± 4.0%49%38%13%
Victory Insights [99] November 16–17, 2022600 (LV)± 4.1%53%47%–
Suffolk University [14] September 15–18, 2022500 (LV)–52%44%4%
Echelon Insights [102] August 31 – September 7, 2022815 (LV)± 4.3%51%42%7%
Suffolk University [103] January 26–29, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%52%44%4%
Victory Insights [16] September 16–18, 2021450 (LV)± 4.6%49%51%–
The Political Matrix/The Listener Group (R) [112] September 11–12, 20211,144 (LV)± 3.1%45%55%–
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) [105] August 4–10, 2021700 (RV)± 3.7%47%49%4%

Ron DeSantis vs. Kamala Harris

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [b] 		Margin
of error		Ron
DeSantis
Republican		Kamala
Harris
Democratic		Other /
Undecided
Suffolk University [14] September 15–18, 2022500 (LV)–52%40%8%
Victory Insights [16] September 16–18, 2021450 (LV)± 4.6%51%49%–

Ron DeSantis vs. Hillary Clinton

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [b] 		Margin
of error		Ron
DeSantis
Republican		Hillary
Clinton
Democratic		Other /
Undecided
Suffolk University [103] January 26–29, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%53%40%7%

Results

State Senate district results 2024 United States presidential election in Florida by State Senate District.svg
State Senate district results
2024 United States presidential election in Florida [113] [1]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican
6,110,125 56.09% +4.87%
Democratic
4,683,03842.99%−4.87%
Green
43,1550.40%+0.27%
Libertarian
31,9720.29%−0.35%
Socialism and Liberation
11,9690.11%+0.06%
American Solidarity
7,4540.07%N/A
Constitution
5,8340.05%+0.01%
Write-in 2050.00%N/A
Total valid votes10,893,75299.00%−0.31%
Invalid or blank votes110,4571.00%
Turnout 11,004,20978.89%+1.72%
Registered electors 13,949,168100.00%−3.41%

By county

County [114] Donald Trump
Republican		Kamala Harris
Democratic		Various candidates
Other parties		MarginTotal
# %# %# %# %
Alachua 52,93938.56%81,57859.42%2,7652.02%-28,639-20.86%137,282
Baker 12,92686.11%1,98213.20%1030.69%10,94472.91%15,011
Bay 71,49772.84%25,20125.67%1,4591.49%46,29647.17%98,157
Bradford 10,92078.27%2,94621.12%860.61%7,97457.15%13,952
Brevard 216,53359.65%141,23338.91%5,2491.44%75,30020.74%363,015
Broward 358,95240.92%507,32857.83%10,9821.25%-148,376-16.91%877,262
Calhoun 5,36783.29%1,02115.84%560.87%4,34667.45%6,444
Charlotte 82,48066.45%40,45032.59%1,1880.96%42,03033.86%124,118
Citrus 71,35672.41%26,27626.67%9080.92%45,08045.74%98,540
Clay 87,71168.90%37,92629.79%1,6651.31%49,78539.11%127,302
Collier 143,26765.89%71,72032.98%2,4471.13%71,54732.91%217,434
Columbia 25,10874.53%8,25024.49%3320.98%16,85850.04%33,690
DeSoto 8,88870.96%3,52528.14%1120.90%5,36342.82%12,525
Dixie 6,92084.77%1,18314.49%600.74%5,73770.28%8,163
Duval 236,28549.92%229,36548.46%7,6831.62%6,9201.46%473,333
Escambia 96,40758.96%64,60139.51%2,4961.53%31,80619.45%163,504
Flagler 51,01463.59%28,43135.44%7720.97%22,58328.15%80,217
Franklin 4,83171.20%1,87027.56%841.24%2,96143.64%6,785
Gadsden 7,49534.17%14,20364.76%2341.07%-6,708-30.59%21,932
Gilchrist 8,93183.27%1,66215.50%1321.23%7,26967.77%10,725
Glades 4,03476.11%1,22223.06%440.83%2,81253.05%5,300
Gulf 6,68476.62%1,97022.58%700.80%4,71454.04%8,724
Hamilton 3,96468.92%1,72730.02%611.06%2,23738.90%5,752
Hardee 6,33677.65%1,75121.46%730.89%4,58556.19%8,160
Hendry 9,25368.61%4,09630.37%1381.02%5,15738.24%13,487
Hernando 75,44667.94%34,43131.00%1,1751.06%41,01536.94%111,052
Highlands 36,38269.92%15,22729.27%4220.81%21,15540.65%52,031
Hillsborough 342,01750.68%321,45547.63%11,4351.69%20,5623.05%674,907
Holmes 8,19389.72%8829.66%570.62%7,31180.06%9,132
Indian River 62,73763.06%35,65435.84%1,1021.10%27,08327.22%99,493
Jackson 16,07472.56%5,89226.60%1860.84%10,18245.96%22,152
Jefferson 5,01158.73%3,42940.19%921.08%1,58218.54%8,532
Lafayette 3,29687.50%44111.71%300.79%2,85575.79%3,767
Lake 140,50061.75%84,54637.16%2,4681.09%55,95424.59%227,514
Lee 250,66163.60%139,24035.33%4,2041.07%111,42128.27%394,105
Leon 60,39738.29%94,52059.93%2,8101.78%-34,123-21.64%157,727
Levy 18,24574.62%5,99424.51%2120.87%12,25150.11%24,451
Liberty 2,89882.89%56616.19%320.92%2,33266.70%3,496
Madison 5,87464.01%3,23135.21%710.78%2,64328.80%9,176
Manatee 140,48661.13%86,67437.72%2,6521.15%53,81223.41%229,812
Marion 140,17365.27%72,43633.73%2,1341.00%67,73731.54%214,743
Martin 64,12164.90%33,53933.95%1,1361.15%30,58230.95%98,796
Miami-Dade 605,59055.19%480,35543.78%11,2641.03%125,23511.41%1,097,209
Monroe 26,06458.57%17,93340.30%5051.13%8,13118.27%44,502
Nassau 47,94572.72%17,14326.00%8461.28%30,80246.72%65,934
Okaloosa 80,30970.31%32,07428.08%1,8421.61%48,23542.23%114,225
Okeechobee 12,31576.51%3,67122.81%1100.68%8,64453.70%16,096
Orange 258,27942.37%340,80755.91%10,5211.72%-82,528-13.54%609,607
Osceola 86,71350.04%84,20548.59%2,3711.37%2,5081.45%173,289
Palm Beach 366,83649.01%372,51249.77%9,1411.22%-5,676-0.76%748,489
Pasco 197,77961.87%117,45036.74%4,4351.39%80,32925.13%319,664
Pinellas 269,47251.89%242,45246.68%7,4161.43%27,0205.21%519,340
Polk 209,04459.71%136,87939.10%4,1911.19%72,16520.61%350,114
Putnam 26,70073.41%9,35425.72%3160.87%17,34647.69%36,370
St. Johns 128,75964.87%66,86233.68%2,8751.45%61,89731.19%198,496
St. Lucie 100,29354.00%83,51744.97%1,9221.03%16,7769.03%185,732
Santa Rosa 84,31474.67%27,03523.94%1,5611.39%57,27950.73%112,910
Sarasota 163,21958.48%112,66840.37%3,2141.15%50,55118.11%279,101
Seminole 129,73550.90%120,71747.37%4,4081.73%9,0183.53%254,860
Sumter 72,13468.30%32,55130.82%9230.88%39,58337.48%105,608
Suwannee 17,56179.98%4,21719.21%1790.81%13,34460.77%21,957
Taylor 7,95479.37%1,99119.87%770.76%5,96359.50%10,022
Union 5,22483.64%97115.55%510.81%4,25368.09%6,246
Volusia 187,69160.23%120,13238.55%3,8211.22%67,55921.68%311,644
Wakulla 14,24671.51%5,44127.31%2361.18%8,80544.20%19,923
Walton 38,97078.25%10,28720.66%5451.09%28,68357.59%49,802
Washington 10,37082.14%2,14016.95%1150.91%8,23065.19%12,625
Totals6,110,12555.87%4,683,03842.82%142,3021.31%1,427,08713.05%10,935,465

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Florida County Swings in 2024 U.S. Presidential Election.svg
Florida County Flips 2024.svg

By congressional district

Trump won 20 of 28 congressional districts. [116] [ self-published source ]

DistrictTrumpHarrisRepresentative
1st 68.10%30.88% Matt Gaetz
2nd 58.55%40.48% Neal Dunn
3rd 60.04%38.93% Kat Cammack
4th 55.32%43.49% Aaron Bean
5th 59.85%38.52% John Rutherford
6th 64.52%34.50% Michael Waltz
7th 55.62%43.11% Cory Mills
8th 60.72%38.35% Bill Posey (118th Congress)
Mike Haridopolos (119th Congress)
9th 47.65%51.17% Darren Soto
10th 37.82%60.43% Maxwell Frost
11th 57.58%41.34% Daniel Webster
12th 66.77%32.24% Gus Bilirakis
13th 55.22%43.41% Anna Paulina Luna
14th 45.38%53.01% Kathy Castor
15th 54.68%43.52% Laurel Lee
16th 57.23%41.71% Vern Buchanan
17th 61.60%37.68% Greg Steube
18th 64.33%34.90% Scott Franklin
19th 63.97%34.92% Byron Donalds
20th 29.57%69.26% Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick
21st 57.69%41.19% Brian Mast
22nd 46.62%52.17% Lois Frankel
23rd 48.43%50.31% Jared Moskowitz
24th 34.43%64.38% Frederica Wilson
25th 46.69%51.98% Debbie Wasserman Schultz
26th 66.99%32.11% Mario Díaz-Balart
27th 56.73%42.12% María Elvira Salazar
28th 62.22%36.86% Carlos A. Giménez

Analysis

In 2020, Republican Donald Trump (who changed his resident state from New York to Florida in 2019 [117] ) carried the state again by 3.4 percentage points, an improvement from his 1.2% margin in 2016, despite Trump losing re-election nationwide and polls pointing to a narrow Democratic win in Florida. In addition, Republicans won all statewide offices by double-digit margins in the 2022 midterms. [118] [119]

A heavily populated South Atlantic state, Florida had formerly been considered a crucial swing state and a bellwether in previous election cycles, but has shifted significantly to the political right and is now considered a safe red state with Trump's double-digit margin of victory solidifying it as such. Florida has two large distinct cultural areas. North Florida and the Florida Panhandle are part of the conservative Deep South. South Florida has a heavy Latin American influence, with large Catholic Cuban, Haitian, Central and South American populations in the Miami metropolitan area.

Florida handed Republican Donald Trump a decisive victory, doing so by a margin of 1,427,087 votes—his second-largest state win in terms of vote count, behind Texas. This was the first time since 1988 that the state was won with a double-digit margin, that it voted Republican in three consecutive presidential elections, and that Miami-Dade County voted Republican. [120] Trump became the first Republican nominee to win Hillsborough County and Osceola County since 2004. [121] He also flipped back Duval County, Pinellas County, and Seminole County after carrying them in 2016. [122] Trump narrowly lost his home county of Palm Beach. Following the 2022 midterms, this election has cemented Florida's transition from a swing state to a reliable red state.

Florida had the third-largest swing to the right in this election (after New York and New Jersey), with Trump improving his performance from 2020 by 9.7%. It was also the largest swing to the right in a state he won.

Exit poll data

2024 presidential election in Florida voter demographics [123]
Demographic subgroupTrumpHarris % of
total vote
Ideology
Liberals128719
Moderates465344
Conservatives91938
Party
Democrats 29725
Republicans 93639
Independents534536
Gender
Men623846
Women514854
Race/ethnicity
White633759
Black158312
Latino584224
Asiann/an/a2
All other races71283
Cuban/Puerto Rican descent
Cuban descent70306
Puerto Rican descent45537
Gender by race/ethnicity
White men683127
White women584132
Black men23765
Black women11887
Latino men633712
Latina women524612
All other races70295
Age
18–29 years old445614
30–44 years old564323
45–64 years old594035
65 and older584128
First time voter
Yes514911
No574289
2020 presidential vote
Biden79238
Trump97348
Another candidaten/an/a2
Did not vote534711
Education
No college degree584164
College graduate534636
Education by race
White college graduates564324
White no college degree673235
Non-white college graduates465312
Non-white no college degree475328
Area type
Urban504946
Suburban613846
Rural64358
Biden job approval
Strongly disapprove94550
Somewhat disapprove524614
Somewhat approve59518
Strongly approve29716
Feeling about the way things are going in U.S.
Angry792027
Dissatisfied594051
Satisfied178315
Enthusiasticn/an/a5
Quality of candidate that mattered most
Has ability to lead732734
Can bring needed change752328
Has good judgment188018
Cares about people like me307018
Vote for president mainly
For your candidate613876
Against their opponent356321
Issue regarded as most important
Democracy178230
Economy802038
Abortion208011
Immigration861416
Foreign policyn/an/a3
Democracy threatened in the United States
Democracy in the U.S. very threatened564440
Democracy in the U.S. somewhat threatened574333
Democracy in the U.S. somewhat secure495017
Democracy in the U.S. very securen/an/a8
Confident election being conducted fairly and accurately
Very confident485138
Somewhat confident594043
Not very confident633513
Not at all confidentn/an/a4
Condition of the nation's economy
Poor861340
Not so good613731
Good89122
Excellentn/an/a6
Family's financial situation today
Worse than four years ago841555
About the same267225
Better than four years ago138619
Abortion should be
Legal in all cases247427
Legal in most cases465337
Illegal in most cases94627
Illegal in all casesn/an/a5

See also

Notes

  1. 1 2 Biden-Harris Campaign National Advisory Board member
  2. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ↑ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  4. ↑ "Other" with 2%
  5. ↑ "Someone else" with 1%
  6. 1 2 3 4 5 "Another candidate" with 1%
  7. ↑ "Someone else" with 3%
  8. 1 2 "Someone else" with 1%
  9. 1 2 3 4 5 6 With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  10. ↑ "Someone else" with 2%
  11. 1 2 "Some other candidate" with 1%
  12. ↑ "Other" with 5%
  13. 1 2 "Another party's candidates" with 1%
  14. ↑ "One of the other party tickets" with 2%
  15. ↑ "Another candidate" with 2%
  16. ↑ "Another candidate" with 4%
  17. ↑ "Another candidate" with 7%
  18. ↑ Claudia De la Cruz (PSL) & Peter Sonski (ASP) with 1% each; Randall Terry (C) with 0%
  19. ↑ "Another candidate" with 3%

Partisan clients

  1. 1 2 Poll conducted for Florida Politics
  2. 1 2 Poll conducted for Florida State University
  3. 1 2 3 4 5 Poll sponsored by Florida Chamber of Commerce
  4. 1 2 Poll sponsored by the Napolitan Institute
  5. ↑ Poll sponsored by the Republican Party of Florida
  6. ↑ Poll conducted for WTVJ & WSCV
  7. 1 2 3 4 Poll commissioned by Clean and Prosperous America PAC
  8. ↑ Poll conducted for The Independent Center
  9. 1 2 Poll conducted for WTVT
  10. ↑ Poll sponsored by WSVN-TV
  11. ↑ Poll sponsored by Associated Industries of Florida
  12. 1 2 Poll sponsored by Citizens to Save Our Republic PAC, which opposes Trump and third party candidates
  13. 1 2 3 Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
  14. ↑ Poll sponsored by NumbersUSA
  15. ↑ Poll sponsored by BUSR

References

  1. 1 2 "November 5, 2024 General Election: Voter Registration and Turnout". Florida Department of State. November 5, 2024.
  2. ↑ McDonald, Michael. "Turnout Rates in the 2024 General Election (v0.1)". University of Florida Election Lab.
  3. ↑ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
  4. ↑ "Florida Presidential Primary". The AP. April 8, 2024. Retrieved April 18, 2024.
  5. ↑ Otterbein, Holly; Fineout, Gary (November 30, 2023). "Florida Democrats plan to cancel presidential primary, enraging Dean Phillips' campaign". Politico . Retrieved December 1, 2023.
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  8. ↑ Fineout, Gary (December 11, 2023). "Federal judge asked to place Dean Phillips on Florida primary ballot". POLITICO. Retrieved December 11, 2023.
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  34. ↑ Silver Bulletin
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  39. ↑ "November Poll Crosstabs" (PDF). Stetson University . Retrieved November 2, 2024.
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  44. ↑ "2024 presidential vote preferences by state". Cooperative Election Study. October 29, 2024.
  45. 1 2 "IGC Statewide Survey of Florida" (PDF). FiveThirtyEight . October 25, 2024.
  46. ↑ "October 2024 Florida Poll: Trump 52%, Harris 44%". Emerson College Polling. October 23, 2024.
  47. ↑ "New Florida Chamber Statewide Poll Shows Donald Trump & Rick Scott Closing the 2024 General Election Campaign in Florida Leading Their Democratic Opponents, While Governor Ron DeSantis Remains Popular with Floridians". Florida Chamber of Commerce. October 25, 2024.
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  104. ↑ "Florida Statewide survey conducted for FloridaPolitics.com" (PDF). Florida Politics. August 17, 2021.
  105. 1 2 "FLORIDA STATEWIDE POLL". BUSR. August 23, 2021.
  106. ↑ "Latest US Swing States Voting Intention (2-4 May 2024)". Redfield & Wilton Strategies. May 13, 2024.
  107. ↑ "USA Today/Ipsos Florida Poll" (PDF). Ipsos. April 14, 2024.
  108. ↑ "Latest US Swing States Voting Intention (14-17 March 2024)". Redfield & Wilton Strategies. March 25, 2024.
  109. ↑ "Latest US Swing States Voting Intention (28-30 December 2023)". Redfield & Wilton Strategies. January 8, 2024.
  110. 1 2 3 "Latest US Swing States Voting Intention (27-29 November 2023)". Redfield & Wilton Strategies. December 5, 2023.
  111. ↑ "New Florida Chamber Statewide Poll Shows Local Businesses and Free Enterprise Supported by Voters". Florida Chamber of Commerce. February 23, 2023.
  112. ↑ Ogles, Jacob (September 15, 2021). "Poll finds Charlie Crist still leading Ron DeSantis, voters backing vax mandates". Florida Politics .
  113. ↑ "2024 General Election November 5, 2024 Official Election Results". Florida Department of State. November 5, 2024. Retrieved November 30, 2024.
  114. ↑ "Florida Department of State - Division of Elections - November 5, 2024 General Election - Official Results: President of the United States". Florida Department of State: Division of Elections. Retrieved January 17, 2025.
  115. 1 2 3 4 5 6 "How Florida went more red: Maps show multiple counties flipped for Trump in 2024". WTVJ . November 7, 2024. Archived from the original on January 4, 2025.
  116. ↑ https://x.com/MappingFL/status/1859058014591873498
  117. ↑ Kelly, Caroline (November 1, 2019). "Trump ditches New York to become a Florida resident, court documents show | CNN Politics". CNN. Retrieved February 29, 2024.
  118. ↑ Friedersdorf, Conor (November 9, 2022). "Is Florida Still a Swing State?". The Atlantic. Retrieved November 23, 2022.
  119. ↑ Carrasquillo, Adrian (November 9, 2022). "Ron DeSantis Wins the Florida Latino Vote, Setting Stage for 2024 Clash". Newsweek. Retrieved November 12, 2022. [DeSantis] flipped Miami-Dade County, Florida's political crown jewel, which completed a stunning reversal in just six years, after backing Hillary Clinton by 30 points in 2016, Joe Biden by 7 in 2020, and now DeSantis by 11 points. In running up the score, DeSantis also secured another major win, becoming the first Florida Republican gubernatorial candidate to win the Latino vote in 20 years, and the first Republican governor to do so since Brian Sandoval in Nevada in 2014. ... Devon Murphy-Anderson, the former finance director for the Florida Democratic Party and cofounder of Mi Vecino, which works to activate Latino voters in Florida, told Newsweek that while Miami-Dade is getting all of the attention, DeSantis' complete and total win also impressively flipped traditional blue areas like Palm Beach County and Hillsborough County. "It's important to know this was a strategy from Florida Republicans, and not to shift the blame to Latino voters," she argued, seeing the results as "a response to strategic investment by a political party."
  120. ↑ Gans, Jared (November 6, 2024). "Trump set to win Miami-Dade, a past Democratic base". The Hill. Retrieved November 6, 2024.
  121. ↑ "November 2, 2004 General Election". results.elections.myflorida.com. Retrieved November 11, 2024.
  122. ↑ "Florida Department of State – Election Results". results.elections.myflorida.com. Retrieved November 11, 2024.
  123. ↑ "Exit poll results 2024". CNN . Retrieved November 21, 2024.
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