2023 Jacksonville mayoral election

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2023 Jacksonville mayoral election
Flag of Jacksonville, Florida.svg
←  2019 March 21, 2023 (first round)
May 16, 2023 (runoff) [1] 		2027 →
TurnoutFirst round: 25.7% Increase2.svg 1.14 pp
Final round: 33.07%
  Deegan Donna-3327b (cropped).jpg Rep Daniel Davis (cropped).jpg AlFerraro (cropped).jpg
Candidate Donna Deegan Daniel Davis Al Ferraro
Party Democratic Republican Republican
Primary election66,160
39.4%		41,492
24.7%		27,256
16.2%
Runoff113,226
52.1%		104,172
47.9%		Eliminated
  Senator Audrey Gibson (cropped).jpg LeAnnaCumber (cropped).jpg
Candidate Audrey Gibson LeAnna Cumber
Party Democratic Republican
Primary election14,433
8.6%		12,715
7.6%
RunoffEliminatedEliminated
2023 Jacksonville Mayoral election by precint.svg
2023 Jacksonville Mayoral Election Runoff by precinct.svg
Deegan:     <30%     30–40%     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Davis:     <30%     30–40%     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%
Ferraro:     30–40%     40–50%     70–80%
Mayor before election

Lenny Curry
Republican

Elected Mayor

Donna Deegan
Democratic

The 2023 Jacksonville mayoral election was held on March 21, 2023, with a runoff held on May 16. Incumbent Republican mayor Lenny Curry was term-limited and could not seek a third term in office. Seven candidates filed to run, including four Republicans, two Democrats, and an independent. Jacksonville mayoral elections use a blanket primary system where all candidates, regardless of party affiliation, appear on the same ballot.

Contents

Nonprofit founder Donna Deegan, a Democrat, and Jacksonville Chamber of Commerce president Daniel Davis, a Republican, took the top two spots in the primary election. Because no candidate surpassed 50% of the vote, Deegan and Davis advanced to a runoff. Candidates eliminated in the initial primary included city councilors Al Ferraro and LeAnna Cumber, both Republicans, and former state senate minority leader Audrey Gibson, a Democrat. [2]

Deegan defeated Davis in the runoff, becoming the first woman ever to be elected Mayor of Jacksonville and the first Democrat to be elected since Alvin Brown in 2011. [3] [4] About 217,000 people voted in the runoff election, for a turnout of 33%. [5] Deegan's win resulted in Jacksonville losing its status as the most populous city in the United States with a Republican mayor; that instead became Fort Worth, Texas. [6] [7]

Background

Jacksonville became the most populous city in the United States with a Republican mayor when Democrats flipped the mayorship of San Diego, California in 2020. Republicans had held the mayorship of Jacksonville continuously since 1993 with the exception of one four-year period when Democrat Alvin Brown served as mayor following his upset victory in the 2011 election. However, the consolidated city-county of Jacksonville and Duval County has historically been more Democratic-leaning than other counties in the state. In 2018, the Democratic nominees for governor and U.S. Senate both narrowly carried Jacksonville even as they lost statewide; in 2022, although the city voted for the Republican nominee in the gubernatorial and Senate contests, it still voted to the left of the state as a whole. [8]

Primary election

Campaign

The two leading Republicans were backed by different factions of the business community; Daniel Davis aligned himself with the network of developers, CEOs, and elected officials who backed incumbent mayor Lenny Curry and who traditionally hold great influence over city elections, while LeAnna Cumber was backed by a more conservative group of outsiders. [9] Florida Politics commented that Cumber had the support of "various anti-Lenny Curry Republicans" in local government. [10] Cumber heavily criticized Curry's effort to raise the Jacksonville gas tax, while Davis avoided taking positions on specific city issues and instead made broad appeals for unity. [9] Al Ferraro was considered to have the most conservative platform of any candidate but lacked the fundraising and endorsements of Cumber and Davis, though his position improved over time due to well-received debate performances and improving polling numbers. [11]

The campaign between Cumber and Davis was heated, with Davis running ads labeling Cumber a "fake conservative" because she donated to Democratic politicians in the past and Cumber running ads claiming that Davis "voted to make it easier for criminals to cover up sexual assaults against children," criticizing him for voting to let DACA recipients get driver's licenses, and accusing him of contributing to rising crime rates in Jacksonville. [12] [13] [14] [15] Both candidates also ran ads accusing each other of supporting the privatization of JEA, the city's publicly-owned electric utility, though they each denied that they would sell it if elected mayor. [16] In February 2023, the city council began investigating ties between Cumber's husband and a company that attempted to buy JEA. Cumber claimed the probe was orchestrated by allies of Davis to help him win the mayoral election. [17]

In comparison, the two Democrats largely avoided criticizing each other and both ran on their own strengths, with Donna Deegan running a positive TV ad focused on her life story. [18] Audrey Gibson is a longtime fixture of Jacksonville politics and had a reputation for working across the aisle during her time in the state legislature. [9] Additionally, she was considered to have an advantage because 55% of registered Democrats in Jacksonville are black and she has a history of performing well in heavily African-American areas. [19] However, Deegan has a great deal of name recognition from her time as a television journalist and the frequent public appearances she made during her mayoral bid. She prioritized small donors and was the only candidate to qualify for the ballot via petition rather than paying a fee. Deegan raised significantly more than Gibson, though her fundraising was still considered lackluster in comparison to Cumber and Davis. [9]

Candidates

Republican Party

Declared
Withdrew
  • Matt Carlucci, at-large city councilor [25] (endorsed Deegan) [26]
Declined
  • Ron Salem, at-large city councilor [27]

Democratic Party

Declared
Did not qualify
Declined

Independents

Declared
  • Omega Allen, former chair of the Northwest Jacksonville Economic Development Trust Fund Advisory Committee and candidate for mayor in 2015 and 2019 [22] [21]
Did not qualify

Fundraising

As of December, Cumber and Davis held a wide lead in fundraising; Davis led with $4.5 million on hand while Cumber had $2.8 million. Al Ferraro lagged behind with $240,000. Among the Democrats, Donna Deegan had the most cash on hand with $590,000, while Audrey Gibson followed with $250,000. [32]

Endorsements

In March 2023, flyers were distributed at polling places in northwest Jacksonville that listed candidates purportedly endorsed by former U.S. Representative Corrine Brown in the Jacksonville primary elections. The flyer recommended a Democratic candidate in every race except the mayoral race, where it recommended Republican LeAnna Cumber. Brown, a Democrat, claimed the flyers were fake and said that she had not endorsed any candidates yet, though she said there were "very qualified Democrats in the race for Mayor." [33]

LeAnna Cumber (R)
Federal officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State officials
State legislators
Local officials
  • William Bishop, former president of the Jacksonville city council (2012–2015) from the 2nd district (2007–2015) [37]
  • April Carney, Duval County Public Schools board member from the 2nd district (2022–present) [38]
  • Randy DeFoor, Jacksonville city councilor from the 14th district (2019–present) [39]
  • Jerry Holland, Duval County property appraiser (2019–present) and former president of the Jacksonville city council (2002–2003) from the 3rd district (1999–2005) [40]
  • Edward Skinner Jones, former Neptune Beach city councilor (1997–2005) [41]
  • Lauren Key, Neptune Beach city councilor from the 2nd district (2020–present) [41]
  • Sean Lynch, mayor of Baldwin (2016–present) [42]
  • Josh Messinger, Neptune Beach city councilor from the 4th district (2018–present) [41]
  • Jessica Ring, Atlantic Beach city commissioner from the 5th district (2022–present) [41]
  • Jack Webb, former president of the Jacksonville city council (2010–2011) from the 6th district (2007–2011) [37]
  • Scott Wilson, former president of the Jacksonville city council (2019–2020) from the 4th district (2015–2023) [37]
Labor unions
Organizations
Daniel Davis (R)
Federal officials
Local officials
Organizations
Donna Deegan (D)
State officials
Local officials
  • Garrett Dennis, former Jacksonville city councilor from the 9th district (2015–2022) [48]
  • Ellen Glasser, former mayor of Atlantic Beach (2017–2022) (Republican) [49]
  • Harriet Pruette, former mayor of Neptune Beach (2008–2016) [49]
Labor unions
Organizations
Audrey Gibson (D)
Organizations
Darcy Richardson (I)
Organizations
Declined to endorse
Organizations

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Allen
(I)		Cumber
(R)		Davis
(R)		Deegan
(D)		Ferraro
(R)		Gibson
(D)		Keasler
(R)		OtherUndecided
University of North Florida February 20–24, 2023593 (LV)± 4.0%1%5%20%37%8%7%1%–22%
Florida Politics/St. Pete Polls February 13, 2023478 (LV)± 4.5%2%4%18%35%11%10%<1%–20%
University of North Florida August 8–12, 2022491 (LV)± 5.9%2%7%11%31%8%10%<1%10% [lower-alpha 2] 20%
Frederick Polls (D) [upper-alpha 1] June 22–25, 2022618 (LV)± 4.0%2%8%17%30%11%17%3%1% [lower-alpha 3] 9%
University of North Florida February 11–16, 2022443 (RV)± 4.7%1%9%20%41%7%––22% [lower-alpha 4] –
University of North Florida May 11–16, 20211,263 (RV)± 2.8%–3%6%19%3%––57% [lower-alpha 5] 13%

Results

The Republican candidates combined for roughly 51% of the vote, while the Democrats combined for 48%. This was the highest first-round combined vote share for Democrats in a Jacksonville mayoral race since the 1995 election. [54] [ better source needed ]

2023 Jacksonville mayoral primary election
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Donna Deegan 66,160 39.43%
Republican Daniel Davis 41,492 24.73%
Republican Al Ferraro27,25616.24%
Democratic Audrey Gibson 14,4338.60%
Republican LeAnna Cumber 12,7157.58%
Republican Frank Keasler4,0102.39%
Independent Omega Allen1,5830.94%
Write-in 1530.09%
Total votes167,802 100.00%

Runoff

Endorsements

Endorsements in bold were made after the first round.

Daniel Davis (R)
Federal officials
U.S. Senators
Statewide elected officials
State legislators
Local officials
Organizations
Political parties
Donna Deegan (D)
Federal officials
State officials
Local officials
  • Anna Lopez Brosche, former at-large (2018–2019) president of the Jacksonville city council (2015–2019) and runner-up for mayor in 2019 (Republican) [62]
  • Matt Carlucci, at-large Jacksonville city councilor (1987–present) (Republican) [26]
  • Randy DeFoor, Jacksonville city councilor from the 14th district (2019–present) (Republican) [63] (endorsed Cumber in the first round) [39]
  • Garrett Dennis, former Jacksonville city councilor from the 9th district (2015–2022) [48]
  • Ellen Glasser, former mayor of Atlantic Beach (2017–2022) (Republican) [49]
  • Suzanne Jenkins, former vice president of the Jacksonville city council (2001–2002) from the 4th district (1999–2007) (Republican) [64]
  • Harriet Pruette, former mayor of Neptune Beach (2008–2016) [49]
  • Eric Smith, former at-large (1979–1999) president of the Jacksonville city council (1990–1991, 1996–1997) [64]
  • Scott Wilson, former president of the Jacksonville city council (2019–2020) from the 4th district (2015–2023) (Republican) [64] (endorsed Cumber in the first round) [37]
Labor unions
Newspapers and other media
  • The Florida Squeeze [66]
Organizations
Political parties
Declined to endorse
Stage legislators

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Deegan
(D)		Davis
(R)		Undecided
Florida Politics/St. Pete Polls May 14, 2023416 (LV)± 4.8%48%46%6%
University of North Florida April 10–14, 2023650 (LV)± 3.8%48%47%5%
Frederick Polls (D) [upper-alpha 1] April 3–4, 20231,162 (LV)± 2.9%54%46%– [lower-alpha 6]
University of North Florida February 20–24, 2023593 (LV)± 4.0%48%39%14%
Florida Politics/St. Pete Polls February 13, 2023478 (LV)± 4.5%51%26%23%
Hypothetical matchups
Donna Deegan vs. LeAnna Cumber
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Deegan
(D)		Cumber
(R)		Undecided
University of North Florida February 20–24, 2023593 (LV)± 4.0%53%30%18%
Florida Politics/St. Pete Polls February 13, 2023478 (LV)± 4.5%55%16%30%
Donna Deegan vs. Al Ferraro
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Deegan
(D)		Ferraro
(R)		Undecided
University of North Florida February 20–24, 2023593 (LV)± 4.0%51%35%14%

Results

2023 Jacksonville mayoral runoff [72]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Donna Deegan 113,226 52.08%
Republican Daniel Davis 104,17247.92%
Total votes217,398 100.0%
Democratic gain from Republican

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 4 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ↑ Darcy Richardson and Theresa Richardson each with <1%; "Someone else" with 10%
  3. ↑ Darcy Richardson with 1%
  4. ↑ Darcy Richardson with 2%; other unspecified candidates with 20%
  5. ↑ Matt Carlucci with 18%; Alvin Brown with 14%; Joyce Morgan with 5%; "Other" with 20%
  6. ↑ Respondents were not given the option to say they were undecided.
Partisan clients
  1. 1 2 This poll was sponsored by Deegan's campaign

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References

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  2. ↑ "Daniel Davis, Donna Deegan headed for runoff in Jacksonville mayor's race". First Coast News . March 21, 2023.
  3. ↑ "Donna Deegan will be the next mayor of Jacksonville". First Coast News . May 17, 2023.
  4. ↑ "Florida Democrats flip the Jacksonville mayor's office in a major upset". NBC News. May 17, 2023. Retrieved November 16, 2023.
  5. ↑ Anderson, Curt; Farrington, Brendan (May 17, 2023). "Jacksonville elects first female mayor, giving Florida Democrats a rare win in GOP-dominated state". AP News .
  6. ↑ Singer, Jeff (May 16, 2023). "Democrats win mayor's race in Jacksonville, the biggest city in America run by the GOP". Daily Kos .
  7. ↑ Zhou, Li (May 17, 2023). "How Democrats pulled off a big upset in Florida". Vox. Retrieved November 16, 2023.
  8. ↑ Singer, Jeff (December 15, 2022). "Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 12/15". Daily Kos .
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  11. ↑ Wolfe, Wes (March 24, 2023). "Al Ferraro unsure whether to endorse Daniel Davis for Jax Mayor". Florida Politics.
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  13. ↑ Gancarski, A.G. (February 3, 2023). "'Dirty Daniel Davis' ad stokes controversy in Jax mayoral race". Florida Politics.
  14. ↑ Wolfe, Wes (February 14, 2023). "LeAnna Cumber knocks Daniel Davis again on immigration". Florida Politics.
  15. ↑ Gancarski, A.G. (March 1, 2023). "LeAnna Cumber ad blames Daniel Davis for Jacksonville being 'murder capital'". Florida Politics.
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  25. ↑ Heddles, Claire (December 3, 2021). "Councilman Matt Carlucci drops out of Jacksonville mayoral race". WJCT Public Media . Retrieved May 5, 2022.
  26. 1 2 Bauerlein, David (April 27, 2023). "Matt Carlucci endorses Donna Deegan in Jacksonville mayor's race". The Florida Times-Union . Retrieved April 27, 2023.
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  33. ↑ Gancarski, A.G. (March 7, 2023). "Corrine Brown says 2023 'Quick Picks' were fakes". Florida Politics. Retrieved May 20, 2023.
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  43. ↑ Gancarski, A.G. (March 6, 2023). "Builders & Contractors back LeAnna Cumber for Jacksonville Mayor". Florida Politics.
  44. 1 2 Gancarski, A.G. (January 10, 2023). "John Rutherford endorses Daniel Davis for Jax Mayor, disses LeAnna Cumber". Florida Politics. Retrieved January 13, 2023.
  45. 1 2 Bauerlein, David (January 24, 2023). "Daniel Davis pledges to expand police force as he accepts Jacksonville sheriff's endorsement". The Florida Times-Union . Retrieved January 26, 2023.
  46. 1 2 3 Gancarski, A.G. (January 9, 2023). "Police union backs Daniel Davis for Jacksonville Mayor". Florida Politics. Retrieved January 10, 2023.
  47. 1 2 Perry, Mitch (October 17, 2022). "Nikki Fried's PC announces support for 20 pro-choice women on the ballot in Florida". Florida Phoenix. Retrieved January 9, 2023.
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  49. 1 2 3 4 Gancarski, A.G. (January 26, 2023). "Former Beaches Mayors back Donna Deegan's campaign for Jax Mayor". Florida Politics. Retrieved January 30, 2023.
  50. 1 2 Gancarski, A.G. (February 13, 2023). "Special delivery: Letter carriers union backs Donna Deegan for Jacksonville Mayor". Florida Politics.
  51. 1 2 Gancarski, A.G. (February 16, 2023). "EMILY's List backs Donna Deegan for Jacksonville Mayor". Florida Politics. Retrieved February 18, 2023.
  52. 1 2 Gancarski, A.G. (October 19, 2022). "Donna Deegan draws Ruth's List nod in Jax mayoral race". Florida Politics. Retrieved April 19, 2023.
  53. ↑ "2023 Candidates". Alliance Party . Retrieved December 6, 2022.
  54. ↑ "Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 3/22". Daily Kos . March 22, 2023.
  55. ↑ Leslie, Brendon (May 13, 2023). "Davis to Door-knock with Sen. Scott, Sheriff Waters Ahead of Mayor Election". Florida's Voice News. Retrieved May 14, 2023.
  56. 1 2 Holthaus, Hanna (March 31, 2023). "Florida Governor Ron DeSantis endorses Daniel Davis for Jacksonville mayor". The Florida Times-Union . Retrieved March 31, 2023.
  57. ↑ Gancarski, A.G. (April 11, 2023). "Donors rally to Daniel Davis in Jacksonville mayoral race". Florida Politics.
  58. ↑ Gancarski, A.G. (March 21, 2023). "Donna Deegan, Daniel Davis to face off in Jacksonville mayoral runoff". Florida Politics. Retrieved May 15, 2023.
  59. ↑ Gancarski, A.G. (April 28, 2023). "Carluccis split in Jax mayoral race endorsements". Florida Politics. Retrieved April 28, 2023.
  60. ↑ Vecerina, Michelle (May 8, 2023). "Duval GOP releases Davis campaign ads as mayoral election approaches". Florida Politics. Retrieved May 13, 2023.
  61. ↑ Gancarski, A.G. (April 11, 2023). "Al Lawson endorses Donna Deegan for Jacksonville Mayor". Florida Politics.
  62. ↑ Gancarski, A.G. (May 15, 2023). "Anna Brosche latest former Republican official to back Donna Deegan for Jax Mayor". Florida Politics. Retrieved May 15, 2023.
  63. ↑ "Randy DeFoor endorses Donna Deegan for Jacksonville Mayor". 104.5 WOKV . CBS News 47, Fox 30, and Action News Jax. May 10, 2023. Retrieved May 10, 2023.
  64. 1 2 3 Gancarski, A.G. (May 11, 2023). "Jax mayoral candidate Donna Deegan rolls out bipartisan endorsements". Florida Politics. Retrieved May 11, 2023.
  65. ↑ Bender, Nat (May 1, 2023). "Jacksonville: Vote Early For May 16 General Election". AFSCME Florida. Retrieved May 15, 2023.
  66. ↑ "TFS Endorsement: Donna Deegan for Jacksonville Mayor". The Florida Squeeze. May 14, 2023. Retrieved May 14, 2023.
  67. 1 2 3 Moger, Ariel (May 3, 2023). "National Environmental Groups Endorse Down-Ballot Candidates Fighting Fossil Fuels". Friends of the Earth Action Fund. Retrieved May 16, 2023.
  68. ↑ Vecerina, Michelle (April 13, 2023). "Donna Deegan backed by group that discourages travel to Florida". Florida's Voice News. Retrieved May 15, 2023.
  69. ↑ Jacksonville Young Democrats of America (@JaxYoungDems) (March 22, 2023). "Well friends, we made it through another DUUUVAL Election Night and one things for certain: we HAVE to get Donna Deegan elected Mayor". Twitter . Retrieved May 15, 2023.
  70. ↑ Duval County Democratic Party (@DuvalDEC) (May 13, 2023). "Our Team–Mayor: @DonnaDeegan". Twitter . Retrieved May 14, 2023.
  71. ↑ Gancarski, A.G. (March 23, 2023). "Audrey Gibson will not endorse Donna Deegan for Jacksonville Mayor". Florida Politics. "I'm not endorsing anyone," she said.
  72. ↑ Hogan, Mike (May 19, 2023). "Duval County - 2023 Unitary General Official Results". Duval Elections Florida Elections Commission . Retrieved May 20, 2023.
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