2014 Florida gubernatorial election

Last updated

2014 Florida gubernatorial election
Flag of Florida.svg
  2010 November 4, 2014 (2014-November-04) 2018  
Turnout50.5%Increase2.svg1.8 [1]
  Rick Scott (cropped).jpg Charlie Crist official portrait crop.jpg
Nominee Rick Scott Charlie Crist
Party Republican Democratic
Running mate Carlos Lopez-Cantera Annette Taddeo
Popular vote2,865,3432,801,198
Percentage48.14%47.07%

2014 Florida gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
County results

Scott:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%

Contents

Crist:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%

Governor before election

Rick Scott
Republican

Elected Governor

Rick Scott
Republican

The 2014 Florida gubernatorial election took place on November 4, 2014, to elect the Governor and Lieutenant Governor of Florida.

The incumbent Republican, [2] Rick Scott, ran for reelection. The Democratic nominee was former governor Charlie Crist, who was Scott's direct predecessor. Crist was elected governor as a Republican in 2006 but did not run for re-election in 2010, instead opting to run for Senate as an independent. Libertarian nominee Adrian Wyllie and several candidates with no party affiliation also ran. Political pundits considered the race a toss-up.

On Election Day, Scott defeated Crist, earning 48% of the vote. [3] With a margin of 1%, this election was the closest race of the 2014 gubernatorial election cycle.

Republican primary

Results by county
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Scott
Scott--80-90%
Scott-->90% 2014 Florida Gubernatorial Republican Primary by county.svg
Results by county
  Scott
  •   Scott—80–90%
  •   Scott—>90%

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

  • Timothy Devine [5]

Declined

Endorsements

Rick Scott

Elected Officials

Organizations

Newspapers

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Rick
Scott
Someone
else
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [25] March 15–18, 2013326± 5.4%42%43%14%
Public Policy Polling [26] January 11–13, 2013436± 4.7%50%40%10%
Quinnipiac [27] December 11–17, 20121,261± 2.8%30%53%16%
Public Policy Polling [28] September 22–25, 2011472± 4.5%53%37%10%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Rick
Scott
Pam
Bondi
OtherUndecided
Hamilton Strategies [29] January 30 – February 4, 2013 ?± ?54%21%25%
Public Policy Polling [25] March 15–18, 2013326± 5.4%46%27%27%
Public Policy Polling [26] January 11–13, 2013436± 4.7%49%25%26%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Rick
Scott
Adam
Putnam
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [25] March 15–18, 2013326± 5.4%48%24%28%
Quinnipiac [30] March 13–18, 2013353± 5.2%47%24%2%27%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Rick
Scott
Tim
Tebow
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [31] January 14–16, 2012572± 4.1%47%26%27%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Rick
Scott
Allen
West
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [26] January 11–13, 2013436± 4.7%37%38%25%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Rick
Scott
Ted
Yoho
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [25] March 15–18, 2013326± 5.4%54%13%32%

Results

Republican primary results [32]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Rick Scott (incumbent) 831,887 87.65%
Republican Elizabeth Cuevas-Neunder100,49610.59%
Republican Yinka Adeshina16,7611.77%
Total votes949,144 100%

Democratic primary

In April 2010 and while still in office as Governor of Florida, Charlie Crist left the Republican Party to run for U.S. Senate as an Independent. He was defeated in the general election by Republican nominee Marco Rubio. In December 2012, Crist joined the Democratic Party. [33]

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Charlie Crist

Elected Officials

Organizations

Newspapers

Nan Rich

Elected Officials

Organizations

Newspapers

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Charlie
Crist
Buddy
Dyer
Dan
Gelber
Pam
Iorio
Anthony Shriver
Kennedy
Jimmy
Morales
Bill
Nelson
Nan
Rich
Alex
Sink
Rod
Smith
OtherUnde-
cided
Public Policy Polling [70] January 16–21, 2014243± 6.3%58%16%25%
Fabrizio McLaughlin [71] November 24–26, 2013380± ?45%32%4%19%
Quinnipiac [72] November 12–17, 20131,646± 2.4%60%12%2%26%
Public Policy Polling [73] September 27–29, 2013337± ?59%16%25%
Public Policy Polling [25] March 15–18, 2013500± 5.4%50%9%3%21%16%
Hamilton Strategies [29] Jan. 30 – February 4, 2013600± 4%43%1%14%5%37%
Public Policy Polling [26] January 11–13, 2013401± 4.9%52%4%13%1%18%12%
SEA Polling [74] September 2012600± 4%29%3%8%2%1%31%26%
St. Pete Polls [75] September 8, 20121,689± 2.4%60.9%7%3.5%25.1%3.4%

Results

County results Florida Governor D Primary 2014.svg
County results
Democratic primary results [32]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Charlie Crist 623,001 74.36%
Democratic Nan Rich214,79525.64%
Total votes837,796 100%

Libertarian Party

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

  • John Wayne Smith, activist and perennial candidate [77]

Declined

Independents

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

Disqualified

  • Joe Allen, writer [81]

Write-in candidates

  • Running mate: Bob Wirengard [83]
  • Running mate: Diane Smith [84]
  • Running mate: Georgianna G. Harris [85]
  • Running mate: Juanita Lockett [86]
  • Running mate: Jeffery Lunsford
  • Running mate: Christine Timmon [87]

General election

Candidates

The following candidates appeared on the ballot for the general election: [88]

  • Running mate: Greg Roe, insurance executive [91]
  • Running mate: Jose Augusto Matos
  • Running mate: Lateresa A. Jones

Endorsements

Charlie Crist/Annette Taddeo-Goldstein

Elected Officials

Organizations

Newspapers

Rick Scott/Carlos Lopez-Cantera

Elected Officials

Other individuals

Organizations

Newspapers

Adrian Wyllie/Greg Roe

Elected Officials

Organizations

  • Boomers Against Elder Abuse [128]

Other individuals

  • Francisco Rodriguez, Candidate for House District 83 [129]
Declined to endorse

Elected Officials

Newspapers

Campaign

As of early June 2014, Scott had spent almost $13m since March on television advertisements attacking Charlie Crist, who then appeared the likely Democratic nominee. Although the ads resulted in a tightening of the race, this came about by decreasing Crist's favorability ratings. By contrast, Scott's favorability ratings did not increase. [133] By late September, Scott's television ad spending had exceeded $35m [134] [135] and in mid-October it reached $56.5 million, compared to $26.5 million by Crist. On October 22 it was reported that Scott's total spending had exceeded $83 million and he announced that, having previously said he would not do so, he would be investing his own money into the campaign, speculated to be as much as $22 million. [136]

Crist hoped to draw strong support from Florida's more than 1.6 million registered black voters, an effort that was challenging with regards to his previous political career as a Republican. A poll conducted in September 2014 by Quinnipiac University revealed his support among black voters was at 72 percent against Scott, which was below the 90 percent analysts believed he needed to win. [137]

Scott and Crist met in a debate on October 15, held by the Florida Press Association at Broward College. [138] The debate required candidates to receive at least 15% support in major polls to be included. This was allegedly increased from 10% after Wyllie met the initial criteria, [139] but the Miami Herald reported that the threshold had been 15% since 2013. [140] The decision has been criticised as "suppressing choice" [141] and the Wyllie campaign has filed a lawsuit to be included in the debate. [142] U.S. District Judge James I. Cohn dismissed the lawsuit. [143] At this debate, Scott refused to take the stage for seven minutes because Crist had a small electric fan under his lectern. The incident was dubbed "fangate" by media sources such as Politico . [144]

Debates

2014 Florida gubernatorial election debates
No.DateHostModeratorLink Republican Democratic
Key:
 P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited  W  Withdrawn
Rick Scott Charlie Crist
1Oct. 15, 2014 Broward College
Florida Press Association
Leadership Florida
Frank Denton
Rosemary Goudreau
Elliot Rodriguez
C-SPAN PP
2Oct. 21, 2014 CNN
WJXT
Kent Justice
Jake Tapper
C-SPAN PP

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [145] TossupNovember 3, 2014
Sabato's Crystal Ball [146] Lean D (flip)November 3, 2014
Rothenberg Political Report [147] TossupNovember 3, 2014
Real Clear Politics [148] TossupNovember 3, 2014

Polling

Trendline for the 2014 Florida Gubernatorial Election 2014 Florida Polling.png
Trendline for the 2014 Florida Gubernatorial Election
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Rick
Scott (R)
Charlie
Crist (D)
Adrian
Wyllie (L)
OtherUndecided
St. Pete Polls [149] November 2, 20141,834± 2.3%46%46%6%3%
Public Policy Polling [150] November 1–2, 20141,198± 2.8%44%44%6%6%
46%47%7%
0ptimus [151] October 30–November 2, 20142,559± 2%43%41%10%6%
Quinnipiac University [152] October 28–November 2, 2014817± 3.4%41%42%7%1%9%
42%44%3%11%
Zogby Analytics [153] October 28–31, 2014688± 3.8%38%45%8%9%
YouGov [154] October 25–31, 20141,795± 2.7%41%41%5%13%
SEA Polling [155] October 29–30, 20141,300± 2.7%46%44%4%6%
SEA Polling [156] October 28–29, 2014800± 3.5%45%43%5%7%
Cherry Communications [157] October 27–29, 2014508± 4%44%39%4%13%
University of Florida [158] October 24–28, 2014850± 3.1%36%36%6%20%
Quinnipiac University [159] October 22–27, 2014817± 3.4%40%43%8%9%
42%45%2%11%
0ptimus [160] October 20–26, 20144,893± 1.4%42%39%12%7%
Gravis Marketing [161] October 22–24, 2014861± 3%42%44%14%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov [162] October 16–23, 20145,422± 2%46%45%2%7%
Quinnipiac University [163] October 14–20, 2014984± 3.1%42%42%7%1%8%
44%44%2%11%
Saint Leo University [164] October 16–19, 2014500± 4.9%40%43%8%9%
45%45%10%
0ptimus [165] October 13–19, 20144,701± 1.5%41%40%12%7%
St. Pete Polls [166] October 17, 20141,855± 2.3%44%45%8%3%
Rasmussen Reports [167] October 15–17, 20141,114± 3%47%47%2%4%
SurveyUSA [168] October 10–13, 2014566± 4.2%41%45%7%7%
CNN/ORC [169] October 9–13, 2014610 LV± 4%44%44%9%4%
850 RV± 3.5%40%42%10%8%
Gravis Marketing [170] October 11–12, 20141,023± 3%44%42%14%
University of Florida [171] October 7–12, 2014781± 3.2%40%40%6%7%
0ptimus [172] October 6–12, 20146,384± 1.3%39%41%13%8%
St. Pete Polls [173] October 8–11, 20143,128± 1.8%45%44%8%3%
University of North Florida [174] September 29–October 8, 2014471± 4.74%38%43%10%<1%9%
42%47%2%9%
SurveyUSA [175] October 2–6, 2014594± 4.1%42%44%6%8%
0ptimus [176] September 29–October 5, 20146,494± 1.2%39%40%13%8%
Public Policy Polling [177] October 3–4, 20141,161± 2.9%43%45%8%5%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov [178] September 20–October 1, 20145,689± 2%47%44%1%8%
SurveyUSA [179] September 26–29, 2014588± 4.1%40%46%8%6%
0ptimus [180] September 22–28, 20143,356± 1.7%40%41%11%8%
SurveyUSA [181] September 19–22, 2014588± 4.1%43%42%4%11%
Quinnipiac University [182] September 17–22, 2014991± 3.1%44%42%8%1%5%
46%44%2%7%
Cherry Communications [183] September 18–21, 2014813± 3.5%43%39%4%5%7%
0ptimus [184] September 15–21, 20146,079± 1.3%41%41%11%8%
SurveyUSA [185] September 12–15, 2014571± 4.2%44%39%7%9%
0ptimus [186] September 8–14, 20143,660± 1.7%41%40%8%11%
Rasmussen Reports [167] September 8–10, 20141,000± 3%40%42%18%
SurveyUSA [187] September 5–8, 2014576± 4.2%45%44%3%8%
Associated Industries [188] September 4–7, 20141,000± 3.1%47%41%12%
AIF Political Operations [189] September 4–7, 20141,000± 3.1%43%40%5%12%
46%40%14%
Public Policy Polling [190] September 4–7, 2014818± 3.8%39%42%8%11%
41%44%14%
0ptimus [180] September 1–7, 20144,386± 1.5%42%40%8%10%
Mason-Dixon [191] September 2–4, 2014625± 4%43%41%4%1%11%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov [192] August 18–September 2, 20145,962± 2%46%43%4%8%
University of Florida [193] August 27–31, 2014814± 3.4%41%36%6%17%
44%38%19%
SurveyUSA [194] August 27–28, 2014580± 4.2%43%45%4%7%
Gravis Marketing [195] August 14–24, 2014859± 4%37%37%26%
0ptimus [180] August 18–24, 20149,333± 1%42%39%9%11%
SurveyUSA [196] August 15–18, 2014564± 4.2%44%41%4%8%4%
0ptimus [180] August 11–17, 201412,812± 0.9%44%41%15%
Cherry Communications [197] August 10–13, 2014627± 4%41%35%4%20%
44%41%15%
SurveyUSA [198] July 31–August 4, 2014576± 4.2%45%43%8%4%
0ptimus [180] July 28–August 3, 20144,714± 1.5%45%44%11%
Rasmussen Reports [199] July 29–30, 2014900± 3%42%41%8%9%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov [200] July 5–24, 20146,873± ?48%43%4%5%
Quinnipiac University [201] July 17–21, 20141,251± 2.8%37%39%9%1%15%
40%45%2%12%
SurveyUSA [202] July 17–21, 2014564± 4.2%40%46%8%6%
Hart/North Star [203] June 26–July 6, 20141,202± 3.5%47%40%13%
SurveyUSA [204] June 30–July 4, 2014558± 4.2%45%43%7%5%
Gravis Marketing [205] June 20–23, 20141,232± 3%41%39%6%15%
SurveyUSA [206] June 20–23, 2014541± 4.3%42%41%8%8%
Cherry Communications [207] June 11, 2014806± 3.5%41%38%4%17%
SurveyUSA [208] June 5–10, 2014556± 4.2%40%44%8%8%
Public Policy Polling [209] June 6–9, 2014672± 3.8%42%42%16%
Saint Leo University [210] May 28–June 4, 2014500± 5%43%41%16%
SurveyUSA [211] May 20–22, 2014531± 4.3%42%40%9%8%
SurveyUSA [212] May 9–12, 2014554± 4.2%41%44%7%8%
McLaughlin & Associates [213] May 4–6, 2014800± 3.4%42%38%20%
Quinnipiac University [214] April 23–28, 20141,413± 2.6%38%48%2%12%
Gravis Marketing [215] April 23–25, 2014907± 3%44%43%5%9%
SurveyUSA [216] April 2014 ?± 4.3%41%44%6%8%
Rasmussen Reports [217] April 21–22, 2014750± 4%39%45%6%10%
Mason-Dixon [218] April 15–17 & 21–22, 2014700± 3.8%42%42%4%12%
Magellan Strategies [219] April 14–15, 2014868± 3.33%45%43%5%7%
SurveyUSA [220] April 10–14, 2014502± 4.5%41%46%7%6%
Public Policy Polling [221] April 1–3, 2014814± 3.1%42%49%10%
Sunshine State News [222] March 31–April 3, 2014800± 3.46%45%44%1%10%
Saint Leo University [223] March 16–19, 2014500± 5.0%39%43%18%
University of North Florida [224] March 6–16, 2014507± 4.35%33%34%17%17%
University of Florida [225] January 27–February 1, 20141,006± 3%40%47%13%
Gravis Marketing [226] January 30–31, 2014808± 4%44%47%3%6%
Quinnipiac University [227] January 22–27, 20141,565± 2.5%38%46%16%
Hamilton Strategies [228] January 14–20, 2014700± 3.8%44%49%7%
Public Policy Polling [70] January 16–21, 2014591± 4%41%43%15%
Saint Leo University [229] December 1–8, 2013400± 5%34%46%20%
Fabrizio McLaughlin [71] November 24–26, 20131,000± 3.1%45%49%6%
Quinnipiac University [230] November 12–17, 20131,646± 2.4%40%47%2%12%
Gravis Marketing [231] November 8–10, 2013932± 3%36%46%19%
University of North Florida [232] September 30–October 8, 2013526± 4.27%40%44%2%14%
Public Policy Polling [73] September 27–29, 2013579± 4.1%38%50%12%
St. Pete Polls [233] August 1–2, 20133,034± 1.8%30%40%9%22%
Quinnipiac University [234] June 11–16, 20131,176± 2.9%37%47%2%12%
Public Policy Polling [25] March 15–18, 2013500± 5.4%40%52%8%
Quinnipiac University [235] March 13–18, 20131,000± 3.1%34%50%1%15%
Hamilton Strategies [29] January 30–February 4, 2013600± 4%41%41%7%
Public Policy Polling [26] January 11–13, 2013501± 4.4%39%53%8%
Public Policy Polling [236] August 31–September 2, 20121,548± 2.5%42%45%13%
Public Policy Polling [236] July 26–29, 2012871± 3.3%41%44%15%
Public Policy Polling [237] November 28–December 1, 2011700± 3.7%32%55%13%
Public Policy Polling [238] September 22–25, 2011476± 4.5%38%51%11%
Public Policy Polling [239] June 16–19, 2011848± 3.4%34%56%10%
Hypothetical polling

With Scott

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Rick
Scott (R)
Buddy
Dyer (D)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [26] January 11–13, 2013501± 4.4%41%37%23%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Rick
Scott (R)
Pam
Iorio (D)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [25] March 15–18, 201350± 5.4%37%44%19%
Public Policy Polling [26] January 11–13, 2013501± 4.4%39%43%19%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Rick
Scott (R)
Bill
Nelson (D)
OtherUndecided
University of Florida [225] January 27–February 1, 20141,006± 3%42%46%12%
Fabrizio McLaughlin [71] November 24–26, 20131,000± 3.1%46%48%6%
Quinnipiac University [234] June 11–16, 20131,176± 2.9%38%48%1%13%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Rick
Scott (R)
Nan
Rich (D)
OtherUndecided
Quinnipiac University [201] July 17–21, 20141,251± 2.8%41%34%4%21%
Public Policy Polling [209] June 6–9, 2014672± 3.8%40%34%25%
Saint Leo University [210] May 28–June 4, 2014500± 5%44%31%25%
Quinnipiac University [214] April 23–28, 20141,413± 2.6%42%36%3%19%
Saint Leo University [223] March 16–19, 2014500± 5%40%32%28%
University of Florida [225] January 27–February 1, 20141,006± 3%41%36%23%
Quinnipiac University [227] January 22–27, 20141,565± 2.5%41%37%22%
Public Policy Polling [70] January 16–21, 2014591± 4%40%34%25%
Saint Leo University [229] December 1–8, 2013400± 5%36%31%32%
Quinnipiac University [230] November 12–17, 20131,646± 2.4%43%35%3%19%
University of North Florida [232] September 30–October 8, 2013526± 4.27%43%28%2%27%
Public Policy Polling [73] September 27–29, 2013579± 4.1%37%36%27%
Quinnipiac University [234] June 11–16, 20131,176± 2.9%42%36%3%20%
Public Policy Polling [25] March 15–18, 2013500± 5.4%42%36%21%
Public Policy Polling [26] January 11–13, 2013501± 4.4%41%37%22%
Public Policy Polling [240] May 31–June 3, 2012642± 3.9%35%47%18%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Rick
Scott (R)
Alex
Sink (D)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [25] March 15–18, 2013501± 4.4%40%45%15%
Quinnipiac University [235] March 13–18, 20131,000± 3.1%34%45%1%20%
Public Policy Polling [26] January 11–13, 2013501± 4.4%40%47%14%
Public Policy Polling [237] November 28–December 1, 2011700± 3.7%37%53%10%
Public Policy Polling [238] September 22–25, 2011476± 4.5%41%52%7%
Public Policy Polling [239] June 16–19, 2011848± 3.4%35%57%8%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Rick
Scott (R)
Debbie
Wasserman Schultz (D)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [26] January 11–13, 2013501± 4.4%42%44%14%

With Putnam

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Adam
Putnam (R)
Charlie
Crist (D)
OtherUndecided
Quinnipiac University [235] March 13–18, 20131,000± 3.1%30%49%1%20%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Adam
Putnam (R)
Alex
Sink (D)
OtherUndecided
Quinnipiac University [235] March 13–18, 20131,000± 3.1%29%37%2%33%

Results

Scott defeated Crist by a slim margin garnering 48% percent of the vote to the former's 47%. [3] With the loss, Crist became the first candidate in Florida history to lose statewide elections as a Democrat, as a Republican, and as an Independent.

2014 Florida gubernatorial election [3]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Rick Scott (incumbent)2,865,343 48.14% −0.73%
Democratic Charlie Crist2,801,19847.07%−0.65%
Libertarian Adrian Wyllie223,3563.75%+1.44%
Independent Glenn Burkett41,3410.70%N/A
Independent Farid Khavari20,1860.34%+0.20%
n/a Write-ins1370.00%0.00%
Total votes5,951,571 100.0% N/A
Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Scott won 16 of 27 congressional districts including two held by Democrats, while Crist won 11 including three held by Republicans. [241]

DistrictScottCristRepresentative
1st 69.66%25.95% Jeff Miller
2nd 49.72%46.37% Gwen Graham
3rd 59.07%36.22% Ted Yoho
4th 64.31%31.09% Ander Crenshaw
5th 31.34%64.67% Corrine Brown
6th 56.32%38.5% Ron DeSantis
7th 49.82%44.13% John Mica
8th 53.74%40.18% Bill Posey
9th 41.63%53.17% Alan Grayson
10th 51.72%42.61% Daniel Webster
11th 55.91%37.98% Rich Nugent
12th 48.36%44.32% Gus Bilirakis
13th 42.59%50.3% Bill Young
14th 34.28%60.5% Kathy Castor
15th 51.13%41.83% Dennis Ross
16th 49.94%43.95% Vern Buchanan
17th 54.82%38.43% Tom Rooney
18th 47.89%47.87% Patrick Murphy
19th 60.88%35.48% Trey Radel
20th 16.48%81.48% Alcee Hastings
21st 34.69%62.58% Ted Deutch
22nd 41.31%55.72% Lois Frankel
23rd 34.55%62.74% Debbie Wasserman Schultz
24th 12.29%86.21% Frederica Wilson
25th 55.7%41.67% Mario Díaz-Balart
26th 46.41%50.74% Carlos Curbelo
27th 47.99%49.54% Ileana Ros-Lehtinen

See also

Related Research Articles

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