2014 United States Senate election in Illinois

Last updated

2014 United States Senate election in Illinois
Flag of Illinois.svg
  2008 November 4, 2014 2020  
Turnout48.16%
  Durbin2014.jpg Jim oberweis.jpg
Nominee Dick Durbin Jim Oberweis
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote1,929,6371,538,522
Percentage53.55%42.69%

2014 United States Senate election in Illinois results map by county.svg
County results
Durbin:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%
Oberweis:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%

U.S. senator before election

Dick Durbin
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Dick Durbin
Democratic

The 2014 United States Senate election in Illinois took place on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Illinois, concurrently with the election of the Governor of Illinois, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Contents

Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator and Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin ran for re-election to a fourth term. [1] He was unopposed in the Democratic primary. The Republicans nominated state senator and perennial candidate for higher office Jim Oberweis.

Durbin defeated Oberweis and Libertarian Sharon Hansen with 53.5% of the vote, the smallest vote total of any of his Senate elections.

Background

Dick Durbin was first elected to the Senate in 1996 and was re-elected by increasingly larger margins in 2002 and 2008. He has served as Senate Majority Whip since 2007 and sought a fourth term in office. [1]

For the primary election, turnout was 15.77%, with 1,183,429 votes cast. [2] [3] For the general election, turnout was 48.16%, with 3,603,519 votes cast. [2] [3]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Results

Democratic primary results [3]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Dick Durbin (incumbent) 429,041 100.00%
Total votes429,041 100.00%

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Removed

Declined

Endorsements

Doug Truax

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Jim
Oberweis
Doug
Truax
OtherUndecided
Market Shares Corp. [11] February 5–8, 2014600± 4%52%15%2%32%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Chad
Koppie
William
Lee
Jim
Oberweis
Joe
Ruiz
Doug
Truax
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [12] November 22–25, 2013375± 5.1%3%4%42%1%7%42%

Results

Results by county
.mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{}
Oberweis
50-60%
60-70%
70-80%
Truax
50-60% Illinois U.S. Senate Republican primary, 2014.svg
Results by county
  Oberweis
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  Truax
  •   50–60%

423,097

Republican primary results [3] [13]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Jim Oberweis 423,097 56.08%
Republican Doug Truax331,23743.91%
Republican Write-in54<0.01%
Total votes754,388 100.00%

Independents and Third Party

Candidates

Declared

Removed from the ballot

General election

Fundraising

Campaign Finance Reports through November 24, 2014
CandidateRaisedSpent
Dick Durbin$10,309,888$12,453,951
Jim Oberweis$2,388,389$2,416,774
Sharon Hansen$2,420$2,367
Source: OpenSecrets [19]

Debates

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [20] Solid DNovember 3, 2014
Sabato's Crystal Ball [21] Safe DNovember 3, 2014
Rothenberg Political Report [22] Safe DNovember 3, 2014
Real Clear Politics [23] Likely DNovember 3, 2014

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Dick
Durbin (D)
Jim
Oberweis (R)
OtherUndecided
We Ask America [24] September 24, 20131,434± 2.86%50%39%11%
Public Policy Polling [12] November 22–25, 2013557± 4.2%51%36%12%
Rasmussen Reports [25] April 9–10, 2014750± 4%51%37%3%10%
We Ask America [26] June 12, 20141,116± 2.93%52%39%9%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov [27] July 5–24, 20145,324± 2.1%48%41%1%11%
We Ask America [28] July 30, 20141,049± 3.04%53%38%9%
Gravis Marketing [29] August 4–5, 2014567± 4%48%38%14%
Harper Polling* [30] August 25–27, 20141,340± 2.68%44%38%8% [31] 10%
We Ask America [32] August 27, 20141,054± 3.02%48%41%4% [31] 8%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov [33] August 18 – September 2, 20144,363± 3%50%38%1%10%
We Ask America [34] September 4, 20141,014± 3.08%49%39%4% [31] 8%
Chicago Tribune [35] September 3–12, 2014800± 3.5%55%32%5% [31] 7%
Rasmussen Reports [25] September 24–25, 2014750± 4%51%37%4%8%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov [36] September 20 – October 1, 20143,955± 2%51%39%0%9%
We Ask America [37] October 7, 20141,086± 2.98%51%38%4% [31] 6%
UIS Survey Research [38] October 2–8, 2014723± 3.7%50%35%1%14%
Southern Illinois University [39] September 23 – October 15, 2014691 LV± 3.7%47%37%0%12%
1,006 RV± 3%49%32%0%14%
APC Research [40] October 16–21, 2014800± 3.5%50%36%7% [41] 6%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov [36] October 16–23, 20143,519± 3%52%39%1%9%
McKeon & Associates [42] October 28, 2014823± 3.9%49%39%4% [31] 8%
Public Policy Polling [43] November 1–2, 20141,064± 3%51%41%4% [31] 4%
52%44%4%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Dick
Durbin (D)
Bob
Dold (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [44] November 26–28, 2012500± 4.4%54%33%13%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Dick
Durbin (D)
Patrick
Hughes (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [44] November 26–28, 2012500± 4.4%53%31%16%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Dick
Durbin (D)
Chad
Koppie (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [12] November 22–25, 2013557± 4.2%52%35%13%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Dick
Durbin (D)
Doug
Truax (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [12] November 22–25, 2013557± 4.2%51%33%16%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Dick
Durbin (D)
Joe
Walsh (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [44] November 26–28, 2012500± 4.4%54%29%17%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Dick
Durbin (D)
Generic
Republican
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [44] November 26–28, 2012500± 4.4%52%38%10%

Results

Durbin won the election, despite winning only 14 of Illinois' 102 counties. [45]

United States Senate election in Illinois, 2014 [46]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Dick Durbin (incumbent) 1,929,637 53.55% −14.29%
Republican Jim Oberweis 1,538,52242.69%+14.16%
Libertarian Sharon Hansen135,3163.76%+2.82%
Write-in 440.00%N/A
Total votes3,603,519 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

See also

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References

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  24. We Ask America
  25. 1 2 Rasmussen Reports
  26. We Ask America
  27. CBS News/NYT/YouGov
  28. We Ask America
  29. Gravis Marketing
  30. Harper Polling*
  31. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Sharon Hansen (L)
  32. We Ask America
  33. CBS News/NYT/YouGov
  34. We Ask America
  35. Chicago Tribune
  36. 1 2 CBS News/NYT/YouGov
  37. We Ask America
  38. UIS Survey Research
  39. Southern Illinois University
  40. APC Research
  41. Sharon Hansen (L) 6%, Other 1%
  42. McKeon & Associates
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  44. 1 2 3 4 Public Policy Polling
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