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Turnout | 47.23% ![]() | |||||||||||||||||||
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Hogan: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Brown: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Contents
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Elections in Maryland |
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The 2014 Maryland gubernatorial election took place on November 4, 2014, to elect the governor and lieutenant governor of Maryland. Incumbent Democratic governor Martin O'Malley was term-limited and could not run for re-election to a third consecutive term.
Gubernatorial candidates pick their running mates, with the two then running together on the same ticket. Primary elections were held on June 24, 2014. The Democrats nominated incumbent lieutenant governor Anthony Brown and Howard County Executive Kenneth Ulman, while the Republicans nominated former State Secretary of Appointments Larry Hogan and former State Secretary of General Services and former Assistant U.S. Secretary of Agriculture for Administration Boyd Rutherford.
Brown predicted that winning the general election would be just "a little bit of a molehill", [2] but he lost to Hogan by a margin of 65,510 votes in the Democratic-leaning state. [3] The Washington Post called the result "a stunning upset" and Republican Governors Association Chairman Chris Christie called it "the biggest upset in the entire country." [4]
Maryland is considered one of the most Democratic states in the country, and Bob Ehrlich, elected in 2002, had been the only Republican elected governor of Maryland since Spiro Agnew in 1966. Ehrlich was defeated for reelection in 2006 by Baltimore Mayor Martin O'Malley and lost a rematch with O'Malley by a wider margin in 2010.
Federal legislators
State-level politicians
State legislators
Local elected officials
Dr. Classie G. Hoyle, Alderwoman of Annapolis
Organizations
Newspapers
State-level politicians
State legislators
Local elected officials
Organizations
Civic leaders
Organizations
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Anthony Brown | Peter Franchot | Doug Gansler | Heather Mizeur | Kenneth Ulman | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Washington Post [50] | June 5–8, 2014 | 487 | ± 5% | 46% | — | 23% | 16% | — | — | 16% |
Baltimore Sun [51] | May 31 – June 3, 2014 | 499 | ± 4.4% | 41% | — | 20% | 15% | — | — | 15% |
WPA Opinion Research** [52] | May 6–7, 2014 | ? | ± ? | 34% | — | 20% | 7% | — | 3% | 40% |
St. Mary's College [53] | April 10–13, 2014 | 502 | ± ? | 27.1% | — | 10.8% | 7.7% | — | — | 54.3% |
Washington Post [54] | February 13–16, 2014 | 469 | ± 5.5% | 34% | — | 15% | 8% | — | — | 43% |
Baltimore Sun [55] | February 8–12, 2014 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 35% | — | 14% | 10% | — | — | 40% |
Gonzales Research [56] | October 1–14, 2013 | 403 | ± 5% | 40.7% | — | 21.1% | 5.2% | — | — | 33% |
GarinHartYang* [57] | September 11–15, 2013 | 608 | ± 4% | 43% | — | 21% | 5% | — | — | 31% |
46% | — | 24% | — | — | — | 30% | ||||
WPA Opinion Research** [52] | September 10–11, 2013 | ? | ± ? | 40% | — | 22% | 7% | — | — | 38% |
NormingtonPets^ [58] | December 3–5, 2012 | ? | ± 4.4% | 22% | 13% | 8% | — | 4% | — | 53% |
GarinHartYang* [59] | September 12–13, 2012 | 504 | ± 4.4% | 31% | 14% | 18% | — | 4% | — | 33% |
37% | — | 23% | — | 5% | — | 35% | ||||
41% | — | 25% | — | — | — | 34% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Anthony Brown | 249,398 | 51.41 | |
Democratic | Doug Gansler | 117,383 | 24.2 | |
Democratic | Heather Mizeur | 104,721 | 21.59 | |
Democratic | Cindy Walsh | 6,863 | 1.41 | |
Democratic | Charles U. Smith | 3,507 | 0.72 | |
Democratic | Ralph Jaffe | 3,221 | 0.66 | |
Total votes | 485,093 | 100.00 |
State officials
Organizations
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | David Craig | Ron George | Larry Hogan | Charles Lollar | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Washington Post [50] | June 5–8, 2014 | 228 | ± 7.5% | 19% | 5% | 35% | 13% | 3% | 29% |
Baltimore Sun [51] | May 31 – June 3, 2014 | 501 | ± 4.4% | 12% | 6% | 27% | 12% | — | 37% |
St. Mary's College [53] | April 10–13, 2014 | 270 | ± ? | 7.8% | 3.8% | 16% | 3.8% | — | 68.6% |
Washington Post [54] | February 13–16, 2014 | 290 | ± 7% | 13% | 4% | 17% | 10% | 1% | 57% |
Baltimore Sun [55] | February 8–12, 2014 | 499 | ± 4.4% | 7% | 6% | 13% | 5% | — | 69% |
No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Republican | Republican | Republican | Republican |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Key: P Participant A Absent N Not invited I Invited W Withdrawn | ||||||||
David R. Craig | Ron George | Larry Hogan | Charles Lollar | |||||
1 | Jun. 6, 2014 | Maryland Public Television | [85] | P | P | P | P |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Larry Hogan | 92,376 | 42.98 | |
Republican | David R. Craig | 62,639 | 29.14 | |
Republican | Charles Lollar | 33,292 | 15.49 | |
Republican | Ron George | 26,628 | 12.39 | |
Total votes | 214,935 | 100.00 |
Hogan heavily criticized Brown for his handling of Maryland's health care exchange as a part of the Affordable Care Act, labeling him as "the most incompetent man in Maryland." [86] The Maryland Health Benefit Exchange enrolled fewer than 4,000 people. [87]
Hogan avoided social issues by promising not to touch the state's abortion or gun control laws. [88] Campaign ads were a significant part of the first debate, culminating in Hogan's call for Brown to "apologize to the women of Maryland for trying to scare them."
Brown pledged no new taxes, no increased taxes, and a look at state spending if elected. Hogan responded by citing O'Malley/Brown's same claim in the 2010 election and how that claim was followed by "40 consecutive tax hikes." [89] Brown said there have been times he has disagreed with O'Malley, like on mortgage reduction. [90] "Brown did not stay to take questions from reporters", and both candidates accused the other of not telling the truth. [91]
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report [92] | Tossup | November 3, 2014 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball [93] | Lean D | November 3, 2014 |
Rothenberg Political Report [94] | Tilt D | November 3, 2014 |
Real Clear Politics [95] | Tossup | November 3, 2014 |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Anthony Brown (D) | Larry Hogan (R) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WPA Opinion Research* [96] | October 20–24, 2014 | 500 | ± 3.5% | 39% | 44% | — | 17% |
Gonzales Research [97] | October 20–24, 2014 | 822 | ± 3.5% | 46% | 44% | 2% [98] | 18% |
CBS News/NYT/YouGov [99] | October 16–23, 2014 | 1,086 | ± 5% | 51% | 38% | 0% | 11% |
WPA Opinion Research* [100] | October 19–20, 2014 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 42% | 41% | — | 15% |
Gravis Marketing [101] | October 6–9, 2014 | 784 | ± 3.5% | 46% | 43% | — | 11% |
Baltimore Sun [102] | October 4–8, 2014 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 49% | 42% | — | 9% |
Washington Post [103] | October 2–5, 2014 | 549 LV | ± 5% | 47% | 38% | 4% [98] | 11% |
807 RV | ± 4% | 44% | 31% | 6% [98] | 19% | ||
CBS News/NYT/YouGov [99] | September 20 – October 1, 2014 | 1,096 | ± 4% | 55% | 38% | 1% | 7% |
Gonzales Research [104] | September 16–23, 2014 | 805 | ± 3.5% | 47% | 43% | 1% [98] | 9% |
CBS News/NYT/YouGov [105] | August 18 – September 2, 2014 | 1,082 | ± 4% | 51% | 37% | 3% | 10% |
OnMessage, Inc.* [106] | August 18–19, 2014 | 500 | ± 4.38 | 45% | 42% | 4% [98] | 9% |
CBS News/NYT/YouGov [107] | July 5–24, 2014 | 1,409 | ± ? | 52% | 39% | 2% | 6% |
Rasmussen Reports [108] | July 9–10, 2014 | 750 | ± 4% | 48% | 35% | 7% | 10% |
Washington Post [109] | June 5–8, 2014 | 962 | ± 3.5% | 51% | 33% | — | 16% |
WPA Opinion Research* [110] | May 6–7, 2014 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 42% | 35% | — | 23% |
WPA Opinion Research* [110] | September 10–11, 2013 | ? | ± ? | 46% | 32% | — |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Larry Hogan | 884,400 | 51.03% | +9.24% | |
Democratic | Anthony Brown | 818,890 | 47.25% | −8.99% | |
Libertarian | Shawn Quinn | 25,382 | 1.46% | +0.70% | |
Write-in | 4,505 | 0.26% | +0.15% | ||
Total votes | 1,733,177 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
Republican gain from Democratic |
Source: [111]
County | Brown | Votes | Hogan | Votes | Others | Votes | Totals | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Allegany | 22.60% | 4,629 | 75.25% | 15,410 | 2.14% | 439 | 20,478 | |||
Anne Arundel | 32.16% | 58,001 | 66.10% | 119,195 | 1.74% | 3,142 | 180,338 | |||
Baltimore | 38.89% | 102,734 | 59.03% | 155,936 | 2.07% | 5,473 | 264,143 | |||
Baltimore City | 75.50% | 106,213 | 21.92% | 30,845 | 2.58% | 3,628 | 140,686 | |||
Calvert | 29.11% | 9,579 | 69.11% | 22,739 | 1.78% | 586 | 32,904 | |||
Caroline | 20.97% | 1,931 | 77.58% | 7,144 | 1.44% | 133 | 9,208 | |||
Carroll | 16.07% | 10,349 | 82.20% | 52,951 | 1.74% | 1,119 | 64,419 | |||
Cecil | 20.43% | 5,467 | 77.33% | 20,699 | 2.24% | 600 | 26,766 | |||
Charles | 51.83% | 24,601 | 46.91% | 22,268 | 1.26% | 600 | 47,469 | |||
Dorchester | 30.51% | 3,252 | 68.26% | 7,276 | 1.24% | 132 | 10,660 | |||
Frederick | 34.57% | 27,682 | 63.34% | 50,715 | 2.09% | 1,675 | 80,072 | |||
Garrett | 17.80% | 1,634 | 79.71% | 7,319 | 2.49% | 229 | 9,182 | |||
Harford | 21.66% | 19,814 | 76.52% | 69,986 | 1.82% | 1,660 | 91,460 | |||
Howard | 46.68% | 49,227 | 51.54% | 54,353 | 1.78% | 1,873 | 105,453 | |||
Kent | 33.56% | 2,603 | 64.58% | 5,009 | 1.86% | 144 | 7,756 | |||
Montgomery | 61.81% | 163,694 | 36.75% | 97,312 | 1.44% | 3,813 | 264,819 | |||
Prince George's | 84.23% | 184,950 | 14.86% | 32,619 | 0.91% | 2,003 | 219,572 | |||
Queen Anne's | 19.34% | 3,757 | 79.46% | 15,436 | 1.20% | 233 | 19,426 | |||
St. Mary's | 25.20% | 8,203 | 72.72% | 23,675 | 2.09% | 679 | 32,557 | |||
Somerset | 31.86% | 2,135 | 66.38% | 4,448 | 1.16% | 78 | 6,701 | |||
Talbot | 29.03% | 4,420 | 69.72% | 10,616 | 1.25% | 190 | 15,226 | |||
Washington | 24.89% | 9,661 | 73.33% | 28,469 | 1.78% | 691 | 38,821 | |||
Wicomico | 34.07% | 8,833 | 64.30% | 16,669 | 1.63% | 422 | 25,924 | |||
Worcester | 28.85% | 5,521 | 69.35% | 13,271 | 1.80% | 345 | 19,137 |
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
Hogan won five of eight congressional districts, including four that elected Democrats. [112]
District | Brown | Hogan | Representative |
---|---|---|---|
1st | 20% | 78% | Andy Harris |
2nd | 41% | 57% | Dutch Ruppersberger |
3rd | 43% | 55% | John Sarbanes |
4th | 65% | 34% | Donna Edwards |
5th | 51% | 47% | Steny Hoyer |
6th | 40% | 58% | John Delaney |
7th | 60% | 38% | Elijah Cummings |
8th | 49% | 50% | Chris Van Hollen |
Here are some reactions to last night's debate
Official campaign websites (archived)