2014 Maryland gubernatorial election

Last updated
2014 Maryland gubernatorial election
Flag of Maryland.svg
  2010 November 4, 2014 (2014-11-04) 2018  
Turnout47.23% Decrease2.svg 6.79% [1]
  Larry-Hogan.JPG Anthony G. Brown Official State Photo.jpg
Nominee Larry Hogan Anthony Brown
Party Republican Democratic
Running mate Boyd Rutherford Kenneth Ulman
Popular vote884,400818,890
Percentage51.0%47.3%

Maryland Governor Election Results by County, 2014.svg
2014 Maryland gubernatorial election results map by congressional district.svg
Hogan:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%
Brown:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%

Governor before election

Martin O'Malley
Democratic

Elected Governor

Larry Hogan
Republican

The 2014 Maryland gubernatorial election took place on November 4, 2014, to elect the Governor and Lieutenant Governor of Maryland. Incumbent Democratic governor Martin O'Malley was term-limited and could not run for re-election to a third consecutive term.

Contents

Gubernatorial candidates pick their running mates, with the two then running together on the same ticket. Primary elections were held on June 24, 2014. The Democrats nominated incumbent lieutenant governor Anthony Brown and Howard County Executive Kenneth Ulman, while the Republicans nominated former State Secretary of Appointments Larry Hogan and former State Secretary of General Services and former Assistant U.S. Secretary of Agriculture for Administration Boyd Rutherford.

Brown predicted that winning the general election would be just "a little bit of a molehill", [2] but he lost to Hogan by a margin of 65,510 votes in the Democratic-leaning state. [3] The Washington Post called the result "a stunning upset" and Republican Governors Association Chairman Chris Christie called it "the biggest upset in the entire country." [4]

Background

Maryland is considered one of the most Democratic states in the country, and Bob Ehrlich, elected in 2002, had been the only Republican elected Governor of Maryland since Spiro Agnew in 1966. Ehrlich was defeated for reelection in 2006 by Baltimore Mayor Martin O'Malley and lost a rematch with O'Malley by a wider margin in 2010.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

  • Ralph Jaffe, teacher and perennial candidate [9]
  • Running mate: Freda Jaffe, sister of Ralph Jaffe [9]
  • Charles U. Smith, perennial candidate [12]
  • Running mate: Clarence Tucker [12]
  • Cindy Walsh, blogger [13]
  • Running mate: Mary Elizabeth Wingate-Pennacchia

Declined

Endorsements

Anthony Brown
National leaders

Federal legislators

State-level politicians

State legislators

Local elected officials

Organizations

Doug Gansler
Federal legislators

State-level politicians

State legislators

Local elected officials

  • Paul N. Crampton Jr., Mayor of Funkstown [41]
  • Todd L. Hershey, Washington County Treasurer [41]
  • Cynthia Kauffman, Boonsboro Councilmember [41]
  • Skip Kauffman, Boonsboro Mayor [41]
  • Howard Long, Boonsboro Assistant Mayor [41]
  • Lewis Metzner, Hagerstown Councilmember [41]
  • Penny Nigh, Hagerstown Councilmember [41]
  • Homer Schetrompf, Hancock Councilmember [41]
  • Donald Souders Jr., Smithsburg Council Vice President
  • Dennis Weaver, Clerk of the Circuit Court for Washington County [41]

Organizations

  • International Association of Fire Fighters Local 1664, AFL-CIO, CLC [41]
Heather Mizeur
Local elected officials
  • Margo Bailey, Mayor of Chestertown [42]
  • Jason Barnett, Brentwood Councilmember [43]
  • Jesse Christopherson, Mt. Rainier Councilmember [43]
  • Mary Pat Clarke, Baltimore Councilwoman [44]
  • Colleen Clay, former Takoma Park Councilwoman [45]
  • Megan Cook, Easton Town Councilwoman [42]
  • Mary Jane Coolen, Cheverly Councilmember [43]
  • Kay Daniels-Cohen, Takoma Park Councilwoman [45]
  • Liza Fenton, New Carrollton Councilmember [43]
  • Carol Fordonski, former Queen Anne's County Commissioner [42]
  • Wayne Gilchrest, former Republican U.S. Representative for Maryland's 1st congressional district [42]
  • Seth Grimes, Takoma Park Councilman [45]
  • Jennifer Jenkins, Glenarden Councilmember [43]
  • Laura Mitchell, Salisbury City Councilwoman [42]
  • Jennifer Murphy, Brentwood Councilmember [43]
  • Patrick Paschall, Hyattsville Councilmember [43]
  • Kathy Porter, former Mayor of Takoma Park [45]
  • Hank Prensky, former Takoma Park Councilman [45]
  • Don Robinson, former Takoma Park Councilman [45]
  • Harry Sampson, Chesapeake City Councilman [42]
  • Terry Seamens, Takoma Park Councilman [45]
  • Fred Schultz, Takoma Park Councilman [45]
  • Ed Sharp, former Mayor of Takoma Park [45]
  • Jarrett Smith, Takoma Park Councilman [45]
  • Reuben Snipper, former Takoma Park Councilman [45]
  • Shani Warner, Hyattsville Councilmember [43]
  • Bruce Williams, Mayor of Takoma Park [45]
  • Patrick Wojahn, College Park Councilmember [43]
  • Jacqueline Wood-Dodson, Fairmont Heights Councilmember [43]

Civic leaders

  • Delman Coates, Prince George County pastor [44]
  • Sonja Sohn, actress and founder and chief executive of reWIRED for Change [44]

Organizations

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Anthony
Brown
Peter
Franchot
Doug
Gansler
Heather
Mizeur
Kenneth
Ulman
OtherUndecided
Washington Post June 5–8, 2014487± 5%46%23%16%16%
Baltimore Sun May 31 – June 3, 2014499± 4.4%41%20%15%15%
WPA Opinion Research** May 6–7, 2014 ?± ?34%20%7%3%40%
St. Mary's College April 10–13, 2014502± ?27.1%10.8%7.7%54.3%
Washington Post February 13–16, 2014469± 5.5%34%15%8%43%
Baltimore Sun February 8–12, 2014500± 4.4%35%14%10%40%
Gonzales Research October 1–14, 2013403± 5%40.7%21.1%5.2%33%
GarinHartYang* September 11–15, 2013608± 4%43%21%5%31%
46%24%30%
WPA Opinion Research** September 10–11, 2013 ?± ?40%22%7%38%
NormingtonPets^ December 3–5, 2012 ?± 4.4%22%13%8%4%53%
GarinHartYang* September 12–13, 2012504± 4.4%31%14%18%4%33%
37%23%5%35%
41%25%34%

Results

Results by county:
Brown
.mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{}
70-80%
60-70%
50-60%
40-50%
30-40%
Gansler
30-40%
Mizeur
30-40% Maryland Governor Democratic primary, 2014.svg
Results by county:
Brown
  •   70–80%
  •   60–70%
  •   50–60%
  •   40–50%
  •   30–40%
Gansler
  •   30–40%
Mizeur
  •   30–40%
Democratic primary results [50]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Anthony Brown 249,398 51.41
Democratic Doug Gansler 117,38324.2
Democratic Heather Mizeur 104,72121.59
Democratic Cindy Walsh6,8631.41
Democratic Charles U. Smith3,5070.72
Democratic Ralph Jaffe3,2210.66
Total votes485,093 100.00

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

  • Running mate: Shelley Aloi, banking analyst and former Frederick Alderman [54]
  • Running mate: Boyd Rutherford, former State Secretary of General Services and former Assistant U.S. Secretary of Agriculture for Administration [56]

Disqualified

  • Brian Vaeth, businessman, retired firefighter and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2012 [59]
  • Running mate: Duane "Shorty" Davis, activist [60]

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

David R. Craig
Larry Hogan
Charles Lollar

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
David
Craig
Ron
George
Larry
Hogan
Charles
Lollar
OtherUndecided
Washington Post June 5–8, 2014228± 7.5%19%5%35%13%3%29%
Baltimore Sun May 31 – June 3, 2014501± 4.4%12%6%27%12%37%
St. Mary's College April 10–13, 2014270± ?7.8%3.8%16%3.8%68.6%
Washington Post February 13–16, 2014290± 7%13%4%17%10%1%57%
Baltimore Sun February 8–12, 2014499± 4.4%7%6%13%5%69%

Results

Results by county:
Hogan
50-60%
40-50%
<40%
Craig
30-40%
40-50%
50-60%
60-70%
70-80%
Lollar
50-60% Maryland Governor Republican primary, 2014.svg
Results by county:
Hogan
  •   50–60%
  •   40–50%
  •   <40%
Craig
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
Lollar
  •   50–60%
Republican primary results [50]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Larry Hogan 92,376 42.98
Republican David R. Craig 62,63929.14
Republican Charles Lollar 33,29215.49
Republican Ron George 26,62812.39
Total votes214,935 100.00

General election

Candidates

  • Running mate: Boyd Rutherford, former State Secretary of General Services and former Assistant U.S. Secretary of Agriculture for Administration
  • Running mate: Lorenzo Gaztanaga, perennial candidate

Campaign

Hogan heavily criticized Brown for his handling of Maryland's health care exchange as a part of the Affordable Care Act, labeling him as "the most incompetent man in Maryland." [75] The Maryland Health Benefit Exchange enrolled fewer than 4,000 people. [76]

Hogan avoided social issues by promising not to touch the state's abortion or gun control laws. [77] Campaign ads were a significant part of the first debate, culminating in Hogan's call for Brown to "apologize to the women of Maryland for trying to scare them."

Brown pledged no new taxes, no increased taxes, and a look at state spending if elected. Hogan responded by citing O'Malley/Brown's same claim in the 2010 election and how that claim was followed by "40 consecutive tax hikes." [78] Brown said there have been times he has disagreed with O'Malley, like on mortgage reduction. [79] "Brown did not stay to take questions from reporters" and both candidates accused the other of not telling the truth. [80]

Debates

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [81] TossupNovember 3, 2014
Sabato's Crystal Ball [82] Lean DNovember 3, 2014
Rothenberg Political Report [83] Tilt DNovember 3, 2014
Real Clear Politics [84] TossupNovember 3, 2014

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Anthony
Brown (D)
Larry
Hogan (R)
OtherUndecided
WPA Opinion Research* October 20–24, 2014500± 3.5%39%44%17%
Gonzales Research October 20–24, 2014822± 3.5%46%44%2% [85] 18%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov October 16–23, 20141,086± 5%51%38%0%11%
WPA Opinion Research* October 19–20, 2014500± 4.4%42%41%15%
Gravis Marketing October 6–9, 2014784± 3.5%46%43%11%
Baltimore Sun October 4–8, 2014800± 3.5%49%42%9%
Washington Post October 2–5, 2014549 LV± 5%47%38%4% [85] 11%
807 RV± 4%44%31%6% [85] 19%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov September 20 – October 1, 20141,096± 4%55%38%1%7%
Gonzales Research September 16–23, 2014805± 3.5%47%43%1% [85] 9%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov August 18 – September 2, 20141,082± 4%51%37%3%10%
OnMessage, Inc.* August 18–19, 2014500± 4.3845%42%4% [85] 9%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov July 5–24, 20141,409± ?52%39%2%6%
Rasmussen Reports July 9–10, 2014750± 4%48%35%7%10%
Washington Post June 5–8, 2014962± 3.5%51%33%16%
WPA Opinion Research* May 6–7, 2014400± 4.9%42%35%23%
WPA Opinion Research* September 10–11, 2013 ?± ?46%32%22%

Results

2014 Maryland gubernatorial election [3]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Larry Hogan 884,400 51.03% +9.24%
Democratic Anthony Brown 818,89047.25%-8.99%
Libertarian Shawn Quinn25,3821.46%+0.70%
Write-in 4,5050.26%+0.15%
Total votes1,733,177 100.00% N/A
Republican gain from Democratic

By county

Source: [86]

CountyBrownVotesHoganVotesOthersVotesTotals
Allegany 22.60%4,62975.25%15,4102.14%43920,478
Anne Arundel 32.16%58,00166.10%119,1951.74%3,142180,338
Baltimore 38.89%102,73459.03%155,9362.07%5,473264,143
Baltimore City 75.50%106,21321.92%30,8452.58%3,628140,686
Calvert 29.11%9,57969.11%22,7391.78%58632,904
Caroline 20.97%1,93177.58%7,1441.44%1339,208
Carroll 16.07%10,34982.20%52,9511.74%1,11964,419
Cecil 20.43%5,46777.33%20,6992.24%60026,766
Charles 51.83%24,60146.91%22,2681.26%60047,469
Dorchester 30.51%3,25268.26%7,2761.24%13210,660
Frederick 34.57%27,68263.34%50,7152.09%1,67580,072
Garrett 17.80%1,63479.71%7,3192.49%2299,182
Harford 21.66%19,81476.52%69,9861.82%1,66091,460
Howard 46.68%49,22751.54%54,3531.78%1,873105,453
Kent 33.56%2,60364.58%5,0091.86%1447,756
Montgomery 61.81%163,69436.75%97,3121.44%3,813264,819
Prince George's 84.23%184,95014.86%32,6190.91%2,003219,572
Queen Anne's 19.34%3,75779.46%15,4361.20%23319,426
St. Mary's 25.20%8,20372.72%23,6752.09%67932,557
Somerset 31.86%2,13566.38%4,4481.16%786,701
Talbot 29.03%4,42069.72%10,6161.25%19015,226
Washington 24.89%9,66173.33%28,4691.78%69138,821
Wicomico 34.07%8,83364.30%16,6691.63%42225,924
Worcester 28.85%5,52169.35%13,2711.80%34519,137
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Hogan won 5 of the state's 8 congressional districts, including 4 that elected Democrats. [87] [ data verification needed ]

DistrictHoganBrownRepresentative
1st 77.96%20.41% Andy Harris
2nd 56.59%41.27% Dutch Ruppersberger
3rd 54.99%42.93% John Sarbanes
4th 33.72%65.16% Donna Edwards
5th 47.23%51.31% Steny Hoyer
6th 58.27%39.85% John Delaney
7th 38.30%59.58% Elijah Cummings
8th 49.71%48.70% Chris Van Hollen

See also

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