2014 United States Senate special election in Oklahoma

Last updated

2014 United States Senate special election in Oklahoma
Flag of Oklahoma.svg
  2010 November 4, 2014 2016  
  James Lankford, Official Portrait, 112th Congress.jpg Johnson c.jpg
Nominee James Lankford Connie Johnson
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote557,002237,923
Percentage67.85%28.98%

2014 United States Senate special election in Oklahoma results map by county.svg
Country results
Lankford:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%

U.S. senator before election

Tom Coburn
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

James Lankford
Republican

The 2014 United States Senate special election in Oklahoma took place on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Oklahoma, concurrently with the regularly-scheduled election to Oklahoma's other Senate seat, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Contents

This special election was held to fill the remaining two years of incumbent Republican Senator Tom Coburn's second term. Coburn, a strong supporter of term limits, had announced even before he was elected to the Senate in 2004 that he would only serve for two terms. After he was re-elected in 2010, he reaffirmed that he would not run for re-election in 2016. [1] [2]

In January 2014, Coburn announced he would resign early at the end of the 113th United States Congress on January 3, 2015. [3] [4] As pursuant to Oklahoma law, he submitted an "irrevocable letter of resignation" to take effect on that day. Thus, the special election was held while he was still in office. [5] [6]

Unlike most states, except in very specific circumstances, [lower-alpha 1] Oklahoma Governor Mary Fallin did not have the power to appoint a replacement senator. Instead, state law required her to schedule the special election "as soon as practicable". [8]

Primary elections were held on June 24, 2014. The Republicans nominated U.S. Representative James Lankford; as no candidate in the Democratic primary received more than 50% of the vote, a primary runoff election was held on August 26 between State Senator Connie Johnson and perennial candidate Jim Rogers, which Johnson won. In the general election, Lankford defeated Johnson in a landslide (winning every county) and was sworn in on the day Coburn's resignation took effect. When Lankford won re-election in 2016 and 2022, he won every county both times.

Republican primary

By April 2014, Lankford and T.W. Shannon were seen as the main contenders for the Republican nomination, with Brogdon a potential spoiler who was running even further to the right than they did. Although there was reported to be "little daylight ideologically" between Lankford and Shannon, and both are associated with the Tea Party movement, Shannon attracted the support of figures including Ted Cruz, Mike Lee and Sarah Palin and organizations including FreedomWorks and the Senate Conservatives Fund. They criticized Lankford for his votes to raise the debt ceiling and for being a member of the Republican House leadership. Supporters of Lankford, including the chairman of the Oklahoma Republican Party, pointed out Shannon's ties to the establishment-supporting Congressman Tom Cole, accused Cruz, Lee, Palin and the others of being "outsiders" who were attempting to meddle in the state's primary, and also pointed out that the aforementioned had previously criticized Coburn, whom they were now praising in an attempt to woo him into supporting Shannon. [9] Local Tea Party groups also criticised the national conservatives, saying in an open letter that they had endorsed Shannon without consulting them or examining his record, that Shannon was a "poser" who "had never stepped foot" in a Tea Party meeting before announcing his run for the Senate and "no longer attends grassroots meetings nor does he seek the grassroots support". [10]

In June, Coburn responded to attack ads calling Lankford a "Washington insider" who "votes with liberals" by saying that "political advertisements by groups... supporting T.W. Shannon have crossed an important line — they simply aren't truthful and they mischaracterize James Lankford's service in Congress." He also called Lankford "a man of absolute integrity" who was "one of the most honest, thoughtful and sincere men I have met in my time in Washington." He also praised Lankford's "life experience", "perspective" and willingness to fight the "status quo", but stopped short of fully endorsing him. He did however say that "as a voter", the negative ads from pro-Shannon groups made him question Shannon's ability to govern. [11]

By mid-June, Lankford was considered to have the momentum, a reversal of fortunes, though a runoff was considered likely. [12] Shannon's negative advertisements were considered to have backfired, in contrast to Lankford's advertisements, which were largely positive. Lankford also raised and spent more money than Shannon, who was not significantly helped financially by national conservative groups, who had focused their attention on the primary runoff in Mississippi between incumbent senator Thad Cochran and conservative challenger Chris McDaniel. The runoff in Mississippi was held on the same day as the primary in Oklahoma and Alexandra Jaffe of The Hill reported that Shannon's best hope was to force a runoff, which would allow the national groups to refocus on Oklahoma. [13] Outside spending for Shannon was $1.8m compared to $170,000 for Lankford but Lankford spent $1.8m to Shannon's $1.1m. [14]

In what was considered a surprise result, Lankford defeated Shannon by over 20%, negating the need for a runoff. Lankford ran a strong, well-organised campaign, considered by Congressman Tom Cole to be "probably the best organization in the state that was operating at this time". He was also helped by his "existing statewide presence grounded in the state's burgeoning Baptist community", which goes back to his time before politics when he ran the Falls Creek Baptist Youth Camp, [15] and the fact that his congressional district is based in Oklahoma City, where turnout was predicted to be high because there was also a competitive race in the Republican primary to succeed him. To attempt to counteract that, Shannon targeted the media market in Tulsa. [12] [14] Finally, unlike in other races, there was no split between the establishment and the Tea Party, with Shannon not capitalising on an "anti-establishment" wave that benefited others like Ben Sasse in Nebraska. Cole summarised: "We don't need people coming in and telling us who conservatives are, [because] everybody is a conservative. There are no moderates." [14] State Senator David Holt, who supported Shannon, said that Coburn's comments about Lankford were the most important factor, saying that "Senator Coburn is enormously respected in Oklahoma, and when it appeared that he had a preference, I think that the voters listened." [14]

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Endorsements

James Lankford

Individuals

State Legislators [37]

T.W. Shannon

Individuals

Organizations

State Legislators [50]

Declined to endorse

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Randy
Brogdon
Andy
Craig
Kevin
Crow
James
Lankford
Eric
McCray
T.W.
Shannon
J. C.
Watts
Jason
Weger
OtherUndecided
Harper Polling [51] January 30 – February 1, 2014627± 3.91%37%8%40%2%13%
54%18%1%27%
Tarrance Group* [52] February 10–12, 2014500± 4.9%3%47%17%33%
Public Opinion Strategies [53] February 9–11, 2014 ?± ?51%16%1%32%
Public Opinion Strategies [54] March 16–17, 2014500± 4.38%7%37%28%3%25%
Public Opinion Strategies [53] April 21–22, 2014500± 4.48%7%32%42%3%16%
NSON Opinion Strategy [55] April 23–29, 2014400± ?3.5%1%0.3%30.8%32%1.0%32.5%
American Viewpoint [56] April 27–29, 2014 ?± ?36%34% ? ?
SoonerPoll [57] May 5–10, 2014580± 4.07%4.5%0.6%1.7%33.8%0.6%31.9%1.5%25.4%
Tarrance Group* [58] May 12–14, 2014501± 4.5%5%43%33%18%
American Viewpoint [56] May 27–29, 2014500± 4.4%4%48%26%3%18%
Public Opinion Strategies [59] June 7–9, 2014600± 4.81%39%37%6%18%
Tarrance Group* [60] June 9–11, 2014500± 4.5%41%34%7%18%
SoonerPoll [61] June 14–18, 2014415± 4.81%3%41%38%2%16%
SoonerPoll [62] June 19–21, 2014840± 3.38%4.2%0.4%1.4%43.4%0.9%34.9%1.5%13.3%
Hypothetical runoff polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Randy
Brogdon
James
Lankford
Undecided
NSON Opinion Strategy [55] April 23–29, 2014400± ?10.2%50%39.8%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
James
Lankford
T.W.
Shannon
Undecided
NSON Opinion Strategy [55] April 23–29, 2014400± ?30.2%38.2%31.5%

Results

Results by county
.mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{}
Lankford
40-50%
50-60%
60-70%
70-80%
Shannon
40-50%
50-60%
70-80% 2014 United States Senate election in Oklahoma Republican primary results map by county.svg
Results by county
  Lankford
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  Shannon
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   70–80%
Republican primary results [63]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican James Lankford 152,749 57.24%
Republican T.W. Shannon 91,85434.42%
Republican Randy Brogdon 12,9344.85%
Republican Kevin Crow2,8281.06%
Republican Andy Craig2,4270.91%
Republican Eric McCray2,2720.85%
Republican Jason Weger1,7940.67%
Total votes266,858 100.00%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

  • Charles Jenkins, retired federal employee [67]

Declined

Endorsements

Connie Johnson

Individuals

Organizations

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Patrick
Hayes
Connie
Johnson
Jim
Rogers
OtherUndecided
SoonerPoll [77] May 5–10, 2014631± 3.9%5%9.2%9.4%76.3%
SoonerPoll [62] June 19–21, 2014781± 3.5%6.4%13.2%5.4%75.1%

Results

Results by county
Johnson
30-40%
40-50%
50-60%
70-80%
Rogers
30-40%
40-50%
50-60%
Hayes
30-40% 2014 United States Senate special election in Oklahoma Democratic primary results map by county.svg
Results by county
  Johnson
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   70–80%
  Rogers
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  Hayes
  •   30–40%
Democratic primary results [63]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Constance N. Johnson 71,462 43.84%
Democratic Jim Rogers 57,598 35.34%
Democratic Patrick Hayes33,94320.82%
Total votes163,003 100.00%

Runoff

Results by county
Johnson
50-60%
60-70%
70-80%
80-90%
Rogers
50-60%
60-70% 2014 United States Senate special election in Oklahoma Democratic primary runoff results map by county.svg
Results by county
  Johnson
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  Rogers
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
Democratic primary runoff results [78]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Constance N. Johnson 54,762 57.99%
Democratic Jim Rogers39,66442.01%
Total votes94,426 100.00%

Independents

Candidates

Declared

General election

Debates

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [79] Solid RNovember 3, 2014
Sabato's Crystal Ball [80] Safe RNovember 3, 2014
Rothenberg Political Report [81] Safe RNovember 3, 2014
Real Clear Politics [82] Safe RNovember 3, 2014

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
James
Lankford (R)
Connie
Johnson (D)
OtherUndecided
CBS News/NYT/YouGov [83] July 5–24, 20141,302± 4.7%56%34%6%5%
Rasmussen [84] August 27–28, 2014750± 4%58%29%6%7%
Sooner Poll [85] August 28–30, 2014603± 3.99%58%28%3% [86] 11%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov [87] August 18 – September 2, 2014821± 5%61%28%1%10%
Sooner Poll [88] September 27–29, 2014400± 4.9%56%28%4%12%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov [89] September 20 – October 1, 20141,244± 3%65%24%0%11%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov [89] October 16–23, 2014995± 5%63%29%0%8%
Sooner Poll [90] October 25–29, 2014949± 3.18%59%28%4% [86] 9%

Results

United States Senate special election in Oklahoma, 2014 [91]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican James Lankford 557,002 67.85% −2.79%
Democratic Connie Johnson 237,92328.98%+2.85%
Independent Mark T. Beard25,9653.17%N/A
Total votes820,890 100.00% N/A
Republican hold

See also

Notes

  1. "No special election shall be called if the vacancy occurs after March 1 of any even-numbered year if the term of the office expires the following year. In such case, the candidate elected to the office at the regular General Election shall be appointed by the Governor to fill the unexpired term." [7]

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References

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