2010 Oklahoma gubernatorial election

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2010 Oklahoma gubernatorial election
Flag of Oklahoma.svg
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  Mary Fallin official 110th Congress photo.jpg Jari Askins cropped.jpg
Nominee Mary Fallin Jari Askins
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote625,506409,261
Percentage60.45%39.55%
2010 Oklahoma gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
County results
Fallin:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%
Askins:     50–60%
Governor before election

Brad Henry
Democratic

Elected Governor

Mary Fallin
Republican

The 2010 Oklahoma gubernatorial election was held on November 2, 2010, to elect the governor of Oklahoma. Due to term limits established by the Oklahoma Constitution, incumbent Democratic governor Brad Henry couldn't seek re-election. The race had been hotly contested by both political parties, with several well-known Oklahomans announcing their candidacy up to two years before the election. This was the first time a woman challenged another woman for Governor of Oklahoma.

Contents

As both parties nominated female candidates (Jari Askins for the Democrats and Mary Fallin for the Republicans), both of whom have also previously held the office of the lieutenant governor of Oklahoma, and as no third-party or write-in candidate qualified for the ballot, Oklahoma was guaranteed its first female governor. In 2008, Republicans won majorities in both chambers of the state legislature for the first ever; as they expanded these majorities in the 2010 elections and Fallin won the governorship, a Republican state government trifecta was established for the first time since statehood when Fallin was sworn in on January 10, 2011.

Askins carried only four counties: her home county of Stephens and neighboring Comanche, Cotton, and Jefferson. While Fallin won all other 73 counties (of which she flipped 70), her margins varied, ranging from narrow wins in much of Eastern Oklahoma to a 66-point victory in staunchly Republican Beaver County.

Fallin was the first Republican to win Atoka County, Choctaw County, Coal County, Haskell County, Hughes County, Johnston County, Latimer County, LeFlore County, McCurtain County, Okfuskee County, Pittsburg County, and Pushmataha County in a gubernatorial election since Oklahoma statehood. Fallin was the first non-Democrat to win Tillman County, which had voted for the Democratic candidate for governor in each election since Oklahoma statehood, thus breaking a 103-year streak of voting Democratic Party.

Democratic primary

Declared

Polling

Poll sourceDates administeredDrew
Edmondson		Jari
Askins
SoonerPoll.com [3] July 16–21, 201049%33%
Sooner Survey [4] July 18–20, 201038%27%
SoonerPoll.com [5] May 25 – June 9, 201037%36%
SoonerPoll.com [6] January 2–5, 201046%36%

Results

Results by county: .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} Askins 50-60% 60-70% 70-80% 80-90% Edmondson 50-60% 60-70% 2010 Oklahoma gubernatorial Democratic primary.svg
Results by county:
  Askins
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  Edmondson
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
Democratic primary results [7]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Jari Askins 132,591 50.28
Democratic Drew Edmondson 131,09749.72
Total votes263,688 100.00

Republican primary

Declared

Declined

Polling

Poll sourceDates administeredMary
Fallin		Randy
Brogdon
SoonerPoll.com [3] July 16–21, 201056%18%
Sooner Survey [4] July 18–20, 201050%22%
SoonerPoll.com [13] May 25 – June 9, 201059%10%
SoonerPoll.com [6] January 2–5, 201068%16%

Results

Results by county: Fallin 40-50% 50-60% 60-70% 70-80% Brogdon 40-50% 50-60% 70-80% 2010 Oklahoma gubernatorial Republican primary.svg
Results by county:
  Fallin
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  Brogdon
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   70–80%
Republican primary results [7]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Mary Fallin 136,477 54.79
Republican Randy Brogdon 98,17039.41
Republican Robert Hubbard8,1323.26
Republican Roger L. Jackson6,2902.53
Total votes249,069 100.00

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
Cook Political Report [14] Likely R (flip)October 14, 2010
Rothenberg [15] Safe R (flip)October 28, 2010
RealClearPolitics [16] Safe R (flip)November 1, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball [17] Likely R (flip)October 28, 2010
CQ Politics [18] Lean R (flip)October 28, 2010

Polling

Poll sourceDates administeredMary
Fallin (R)		Jari
Askins (D)
SoonerPoll.com [19] October 23, 201056%39%
SoonerPoll.com [19] October 7, 201054%36%
Rasmussen Reports [20] September 23, 201060%34%
Rasmussen Reports [21] August 26, 201052%37%
Rasmussen Reports [22] July 28, 201057%36%
SoonerPoll.com [3] July 16–21, 201046%40%
Rasmussen Reports [23] June 30, 201055%32%
SoonerPoll.com [24] May 25 – June 9, 201049%36%
Rasmussen Reports [25] February 24, 201051%37%
SoonerPoll.com [6] January 2–5, 201052%36%
Public Policy Polling [26] May 13–17, 200950%34%

Results

2010 Oklahoma gubernatorial election [27]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Mary Fallin 625,506 60.45% +26.95%
Democratic Jari Askins 409,26139.55%−26.95%
Total votes1,034,767 100.00% N/A
Republican gain from Democratic

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

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References

  1. ↑ McNutt, Michael. "Oklahoma Lt. Gov. Jari Askins said she will run for governor in 2010." NewsOk.com, January 4, 2009.
  2. ↑ "Edmondson says he will run for governor in 2010".
  3. 1 2 3 SoonerPoll.com
  4. 1 2 Sooner Survey
  5. ↑ SoonerPoll.com
  6. 1 2 3 SoonerPoll.com
  7. 1 2 "SUMMARY RESULTS: Primary Election -- July 27, 2010". Oklahoma Election Board. Archived from the original on August 2, 2020. Retrieved June 9, 2021.
  8. ↑ [ dead link ]
  9. ↑ "Roger L. Jackson for Oklahoma Governor". Jacksonforokgov.com. Archived from the original on July 12, 2010. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
  10. ↑ "Owasso Sen. Brogdon to run for governor". Tulsa World. April 18, 2009. Archived from the original on October 7, 2012. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
  11. ↑ Estus, John, "Oklahoma candidate filing period marks start of busy campaign season", The Oklahoman, May 31, 2010.
  12. ↑ Casteel, Chris (May 22, 2009). "J.C. Watts rules out run for Oklahoma governor". The Oklahoman . Archived from the original on March 3, 2016. Retrieved June 10, 2021.
  13. ↑ SoonerPoll.com
  14. ↑ "2010 Governors Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Archived from the original on October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
  15. ↑ "Governor Ratings". Rothenberg Political Report . Retrieved October 28, 2010.
  16. ↑ "2010 Governor Races". RealClearPolitics . Retrieved October 28, 2010.
  17. ↑ "THE CRYSTAL BALL'S FINAL CALLS". Sabato's Crystal Ball. October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
  18. ↑ "Race Ratings Chart: Governor". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on October 5, 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
  19. 1 2 SoonerPoll.com
  20. ↑ Rasmussen Reports
  21. ↑ Rasmussen Reports
  22. ↑ Rasmussen Reports
  23. ↑ Rasmussen Reports
  24. ↑ SoonerPoll.com
  25. ↑ Rasmussen Reports
  26. ↑ Public Policy Polling
  27. ↑ "Election Results" (PDF). Oklahoma State Election Board. Archived from the original (PDF) on November 16, 2010. Retrieved November 11, 2010.

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