2010 United States House of Representatives election in South Dakota

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2010 United States House of Representatives election in South Dakota
Flag of South Dakota.svg
  2008 November 2, 2010 2012  
  Kristi Noem portrait (cropped).jpg SHS Official Headshot (cropped).jpg 3x4.svg
Nominee Kristi Noem Stephanie Herseth Sandlin B. Thomas Marking
Party Republican Democratic Independent
Popular vote153,703146,58919,134
Percentage48.12%45.89%5.99%

SD-AL 2010 by county.svg
County results
Noem:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%
Herseth Sandlin:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%
     70–80%     >90%

U.S. Representative before election

Stephanie Herseth Sandlin
Democratic

Elected U.S. Representative

Kristi Noem
Republican

The 2010 United States House of Representatives election in South Dakota took place on Tuesday, November 2, 2010. Voters selected a representative for their single At-Large district, who run on a statewide ballot. On June 8, 2010, the Republicans nominated Kristi Noem, Assistant Majority Leader of the South Dakota House of Representatives and the Democrats nominated the incumbent Stephanie Herseth Sandlin. B. Thomas Marking ran as an Independent candidate. In the general election, Noem defeated Herseth Sandlin, winning 48.1 percent of the vote to 45.9 percent for Herseth Sandlin.

Contents

Democratic Primary

Nominee

Announced

Potential

Republican Primary

Nominee

Announced

Withdrew

Declined

Primary results

2010 Republican primary election – At Large Congressional District of South Dakota [9]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Kristi Noem 34,527 42.1
Republican Chris Nelson 28,38034.6
Republican Blake Curd19,13423.3
Total votes82,041 100.0

Campaign

Issues

During the general election campaign, Republicans criticized Herseth Sandlin's voting record. They also criticized her lobbyist husband's list of clients, noting that the companies had interests in legislation that would come before Congress. [10] Noem pointed out that the National Association of Broadcasters paid Herseth Sandlin's husband, Max Sandlin, a lobbyist and former Congressman, $320,000 during the years 2008 and 2009 to lobby on their behalf, including a bill co-sponsored by Herseth Sandlin called the Local Radio Freedom Act. [10] [11] Herseth Sandlin responded that Noem's example was "laughable". [11] The Rapid City Journal editorial board stated that Herseth Sandlin should not be laughing at a legitimate concern. [12] Roll Call called the Republican effort an attempt "to stoke anti-Beltway emotions". [10] Herseth Sandlin's campaign responded that she did not allow family members to lobby her or her staff. [10] According to a Washington attorney, Herseth Sandlin's policy seemed compliant with House ethics rules that had been tightened in 2007, though Republicans charged Herseth Sandlin was violating the spirit of the conflict interest rules. [10] "The Sunlight Foundation, Public Citizen and other watchdog groups are highly critical of Herseth Sandlin and other Members whose relatives work Congressional corridors", according to Roll Call. [10] The groups have said the House ethics rules should be comparable to the Senate's rules and should ban all lobbying "under the Dome" by relatives of Members. [10]

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s) administeredStephanie
Herseth
Sandlin (D)
Kristi
Noem (R)
Rasmussen Reports [13] February 23, 201049%34%
Rasmussen Reports [14] March 25, 201046%35%
Rasmussen Reports [15] April 26, 201050%35%
Rasmussen Reports [16] May 27, 201046%43%
Rasmussen Reports [17] June 14, 201041%53%
Rasmussen Reports [17] [18] July 6, 201044%49%
Rasmussen Reports [19] [20] August 3, 201042%51%
Rasmussen Reports [21] September 8, 201047%45%
Rasmussen Reports [22] October 4, 201044%47%
Rasmussen Reports [22] October 20, 201044%49%
Nielson Brothers Polling [23] October 20–22, 201042%40%

On October 24, 2010, Nate Silver of The New York Times ' FiveThirtyEight.com blog predicted that there was a 69.9% chance that Noem would defeat Sandlin. [24]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [25] TossupNovember 1, 2010
Rothenberg [26] Tilt R (flip)November 1, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball [27] Lean R (flip)November 1, 2010
RCP [28] Lean R (flip)November 1, 2010
CQ Politics [29] TossupOctober 28, 2010
New York Times [30] TossupNovember 1, 2010
FiveThirtyEight [30] Lean R (flip)November 1, 2010

Fundraising

The race saw each candidate spend over $1.75 million and was the first in Herseth Sandlin's career where she was outspent. [31]

Funding from political parties and interest groups totaled $2,651,621 for the race, with 78% benefiting Noem. [32] Groups supporting Herseth-Sandlin included the DCCC and CUNA. Noem was supported by the American Action Network, the NRCC and the American Future Fund. [32]

Results

South Dakota's at-large congressional district election, 2010 [33]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Kristi Noem 153,703 48.12%
Democratic Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (incumbent)146,58945.89%
Independent B. Thomas Marking19,1345.99%
Total votes319,426 100.00%
Republican gain from Democratic

By county

Source [34]

Kristi Noem
Republican
Stephanie Herseth Sandlin
Democrat
B. Thomas Marking
Independent
MarginTotal
CountyVotes %Votes %Votes %Votes %Votes
Aurora 59342.54%70750.72%946.74%-114-8.18%1,394
Beadle 2,94142.62%3,54151.32%4186.06%-600-8.70%6,900
Bennett 49947.16%50247.45%575.39%-3-0.28%1,058
Bon Homme 1,26544.64%1,33447.07%2358.29%-69-2.43%2,834
Brookings 4,14737.19%6,19555.56%8087.25%-2,048-18.37%11,150
Brown 5,71239.46%8,10055.95%6654.59%-2,388-16.50%14,477
Brule 97145.20%1,01747.35%1607.45%-46-2.14%2,148
Buffalo 9120.09%35177.48%112.43%-260-57.40%453
Butte 2,35763.43%1,12830.36%2316.22%1,22933.07%3,716
Campbell 45245.22%30138.10%374.68%15119.11%790
Charles Mix 1,71048.69%1,62046.13%1825.18%902.56%3,512
Clark 77345.85%78746.68%1267.47%-14-0.83%1,686
Clay 1,64235.01%2,80259.74%2465.25%-1,160-24.73%4,690
Codington 4,98348.16%4,68445.27%6796.56%2992.89%10,346
Corson 36241.51%45051.61%606.88%-88-10.09%872
Custer 2,37859.91%1,27832.20%3137.89%1,10027.71%3,969
Davison 3,46747.64%3,43747.22%3745.14%300.41%7,278
Day 93733.97%1,66860.48%1535.55%-731-26.50%2,758
Deuel 87742.86%99948.83%1708.31%-122-5.96%2,046
Dewey 44228.05%1,07067.89%644.06%-628-39.85%1,576
Douglas 1,08365.12%48929.40%915.47%59435.72%1,663
Edmunds 83846.69%83446.46%1236.85%40.22%1,795
Fall River 1,82458.54%1,05633.89%2367.57%76824.65%3,116
Faulk 55350.87%46642.87%686.26%878.00%1,087
Grant 1,59745.63%1,63846.80%2657.57%-41-1.17%3,500
Gregory 1,12954.99%78538.24%1396.77%34416.76%2,053
Haakon 71869.37%25424.54%636.09%46444.83%1,035
Hamlin 1,46355.29%96336.39%2208.31%50018.90%2,646
Hand 90649.24%80443.70%1307.07%1025.54%1,840
Hanson 1,04860.09%59434.06%1025.85%45426.03%1,744
Harding 49073.03%12718.93%548.05%36354.10%671
Hughes 3,84949.95%3,43244.54%4255.52%4175.41%7,706
Hutchinson 1,82256.92%1,17636.74%2036.34%64620.18%3,201
Hyde 41257.22%27738.47%314.31%13518.75%720
Jackson 53455.51%36938.36%596.13%16517.15%962
Jerauld 46140.76%58151.37%897.87%-120-10.61%1,131
Jones 37763.90%18030.51%335.59%19733.39%590
Kingsbury 1,04442.18%1,22949.66%2028.16%-185-7.47%2,475
Lake 2,41446.39%2,45847.23%3326.38%-44-0.85%5,204
Lawrence 5,43153.26%4,01939.41%7477.33%1,41213.85%10,197
Lincoln 9,44052.44%7,69942.77%8624.79%1,7419.67%18,001
Lyman 67748.36%60443.14%1198.50%735.21%1,400
Marshall 66035.64%1,10759.77%854.59%-447-24.14%1,852
McCook 1,21648.41%1,12644.82%1706.77%903.58%2,512
McPherson 69257.33%44737.03%685.63%24520.30%1,207
Meade 5,74161.10%3,04932.45%6066.45%2,69228.65%9,396
Mellette 32042.22%37349.21%658.58%-53-6.99%758
Miner 45841.08%58152.11%766.82%-123-11.03%1,115
Minnehaha 28,96844.50%32,43049.82%3,6985.68%-3,462-5.32%65,096
Moody 1,11140.80%1,43357.18%2012.02%-503-16.39%2,745
Pennington 21,48957.94%13,59736.66%2,0025.40%7,89221.28%37,088
Perkins 85962.38%41830.36%1007.26%44132.03%1,377
Potter 74556.35%51839.18%594.46%22717.17%1,322
Roberts 1,50739.12%2,07753.92%2686.96%-570-14.80%3,852
Sanborn 51444.16%57849.66%726.19%-64-5.50%1,164
Shannon 1917.63%2,26090.29%522.08%-2,069-82.66%2,503
Spink 1,20140.85%1,56453.20%1755.95%-363-12.35%2,940
Stanley 72650.88%60142.12%1007.01%1258.76%1,427
Sully 42757.24%27036.19%496.57%15721.05%746
Todd 42121.03%1,50074.93%814.05%-1,079-53.90%2,002
Tripp 1,39037.52%94959.07%1693.41%44117.58%2,508
Treasure 1,87549.30%1,67644.07%2526.63%1995.23%3,803
Union 3,35655.60%2,40839.89%2724.51%94815.71%6,036
Walworth 1,22954.89%87138.90%1396.21%35815.99%2,239
Yankton 3,65342.18%4,33650.07%6717.75%-683-7.89%8,660
Ziebach 24535.61%41560.32%284.07%-170-24.71%688

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

See also

References

  1. 1 2 "Statewide Candidate List" (PDF). sd.gov. September 30, 2010. Archived from the original (PDF) on November 16, 2010. Retrieved November 3, 2010.
  2. 1 2 "Herseth Sandlin running for reelection - The Scorecard". Politico. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
  3. "CNN Political Ticker: All politics, all the time Blog Archive - Obama campaign guru eyes House seat". Politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com. March 16, 2010. Archived from the original on March 23, 2010. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
  4. "Curd for Congress". www.curdforcongress.com. Archived from the original on 15 January 2010. Retrieved 4 December 2018.
  5. "Help Chris Make South Dakota Better!". Nelson For SD.
  6. "Yankton Press & Dakotan > Archives > News > S.D. Legislator Considers U.S. House". Yankton.net. September 4, 2009. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
  7. "It's Official: Thad Wasson Ends Congressional Campaign, Endorses Curd". Dakotavoice.com. January 7, 2010. Archived from the original on August 19, 2010. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
  8. "Yankton Press & Dakotan > Archives > News > Krebs Decides Against U.S. House Run". Yankton.net. November 12, 2009. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
  9. "2010 South Dakota Official Primary Election Results". South Dakota Secretary of State. Retrieved December 10, 2023.
  10. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Murray, Matthew (July 26, 2010). "GOP Assails Sandlin Family Ties". Roll Call . Retrieved March 7, 2011. Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin's family situation is becoming a major headache for the South Dakota Democrat in her tough re-election bid, with Republicans ramping up their criticisms of her voting record — and her lobbyist husband's extensive list of clients. In March 2007, the lawmaker married lobbyist and ex-Rep. Max Sandlin, a Texas Democrat who lost his seat to Rep. Louie Gohmert (R) in 2004.
  11. 1 2 Montgomery, David (September 27, 2010). "Noem targets Herseth Sandlin's lobbyist husband in heated House race". Rapid City Journal . Retrieved March 7, 2011. As Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin battles Republican challenger Kristi Noem in this fall's election, she has found herself under attack from Republicans for her husband's day job -– political lobbyist. Noem and her campaign are claiming Herseth Sandlin is being improperly influenced by lobbying contracts of Max Sandlin, a former Texas congressman who married the congresswoman in 2007.
  12. Rapid City Journal Editorial Board (September 30, 2010). "Sandlin's job no laughing matter". Rapid City Journal . Retrieved March 7, 2011. Herseth Sandlin's claim that transparency and disclosure are adequate doesn't cut it. She should not be laughing off this legitimate concern.
  13. "Toplines - 2010 South Dakota House of Representatives Election - February 23, 2010 - Rasmussen Reports®". www.rasmussenreports.com.
  14. "Toplines - 2010 South Dakota House of Representatives Election - March 25, 2010 - Rasmussen Reports®". www.rasmussenreports.com.
  15. "Toplines - 2010 South Dakota House of Representatives Election - April 21, 2010 - Rasmussen Reports®". www.rasmussenreports.com.
  16. "Toplines - South Dakota House of Representatives Election - May 27, 2010 - Rasmussen Reports®". www.rasmussenreports.com.
  17. 1 2 "Toplines - South Dakota House of Representatives Election - June 10, 2010 - Rasmussen Reports®". www.rasmussenreports.com.
  18. Woster, Kevin. Poll: Herseth Sandlin gains back ground, but Noem still leads in House race, Rapid City Journal , July 9, 2010.
  19. "Rasmussen Reports".[ permanent dead link ]
  20. Rasmussen, Scott (August 6, 2010). "Election 2010: South Dakota House of Representatives". Rasmussen Reports. Retrieved August 7, 2010. Republican Kristi Noem again passes the 50% mark of support this month against incumbent Democrat Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin in the race for South Dakota's only House seat.
  21. "Election 2010: South Dakota House of Representatives". www.rasmussenreports.com.
  22. 1 2 "Election 2010: South Dakota House of Representatives". www.rasmussenreports.com.
  23. "Nielson Brothers Polling". Archived from the original on October 28, 2010.
  24. Silver, Nate (October 20, 2010). "FiveThirtyEight Forecasts South Dakota At Large District". The New York Times . Retrieved October 24, 2010.
  25. "The Cook Political Report – Charts – 2010 House Competitive Races". The Cook Political Report. November 1, 2010. Archived from the original on November 4, 2010. Retrieved November 1, 2010.
  26. Rothenberg Political Report (November 1, 2010). "House Ratings". Rothenbergpoliticalreport.com. Archived from the original on November 1, 2010. Retrieved November 1, 2010.
  27. Crystal Ball, as of November 1,2010
  28. RealClearPolitics, as of November 1,2010
  29. "2010 House Ratings Chart". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on October 28, 2010. Retrieved November 1, 2010.
  30. 1 2 "House Race Ratings". nytimes.com. The New York Times. Archived from the original on November 7, 2010. Retrieved October 9, 2023.
  31. Montgomery, David (October 22, 2010). "Noem cruises past Herseth Sandlin in campaign funding in U.S. House race". Rapid City Journal.
  32. 1 2 "Campaign cash: South Dakota's 1st congressional district". The Washington Post. Retrieved November 9, 2010.
  33. "2010 South Dakota Official General Election Results: Statewide Candidate Races - November 2, 2010". South Dakota Secretary of State. Retrieved November 16, 2024.
  34. "2010 South Dakota Official General Election Results: Statewide Candidates by County - November 2, 2010". South Dakota Secretary of State. Retrieved November 16, 2024.

Debates