2010 United States Senate election in Washington

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2010 United States Senate election in Washington
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  Patty Murray, official portrait, 113th Congress (cropped).jpg Dino Rossi (cropped).jpg
Nominee Patty Murray Dino Rossi
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote1,314,9301,196,164
Percentage52.08%47.37%
2010 United States Senate election in Washington results map by county.svg
County results
Murray:      50–60%     60–70%
Rossi:      40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%
U.S. senator before election

Patty Murray
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Patty Murray
Democratic

The 2010 United States Senate election in Washington was held on November 2, 2010, alongside other elections to the United States Senate in other states as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democrat Senator Patty Murray won re-election to a fourth term by a margin of 52.1% – 47.4% over Republican Dino Rossi, who had run for governor in 2004 and 2008. This was the last U.S. Senate election in Washington where the margin of victory was single digits.

Contents

Top-two primary election

Candidates

Democrats

Republicans

Others

  • Will Baker (Reform Party) [3]
  • Schalk Leonard [3]
  • Skip Mercer, professor [9]
  • Mohammad Said (Centrist Party) [3]

Polling

Poll sourceDates administeredPatty Murray (D)Dino Rossi (R)Clint Didier (R)Paul Akers (R)Undecided
Elway Research [10] April 29 – May 2, 201048%––4%8%36%
Elway Research [11] June 13, 201043%31%5%2%17%
Survey USA [12] June 30, 201037%33%5%3%19%
Public Policy Polling [13] July 27 – August 1, 201047%33%10%4%6%
Survey USA [14] August 6–9, 201041%33%11%5%4%

Results

Blanket primary election results [15] [16]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Patty Murray (incumbent) 670,284 46.22%
Republican Dino Rossi 483,305 33.33%
Republican Clint Didier185,03412.76%
Republican Paul Akers37,2312.57%
Independent Skip Mercer12,1220.84%
Democratic Charles Allen11,5250.79%
Democratic Bob Burr11,3440.78%
Republican Norma Gruber9,1620.63%
Republican Michael Latimer6,5450.45%
Democratic Mike the Mover6,0190.42%
Democratic Goodspaceguy4,7180.33%
Reform William Baker4,5930.32%
Independent Mohammad Said3,3870.23%
Independent Schalk Leonard2,8180.19%
Republican William Chovil2,0390.14%
Total votes1,450,126 100.00%

General election

Candidates

The top 2 candidates from the blanket primary advanced to the general election.

Campaign

Rossi heavily criticized Murray for her support of the 2009 economic stimulus package; however, Rossi's economic promises are nearly identical to those of President Bush who asked for the stimulus. [17] Rossi supports repealing the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act and the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act. He also criticized Murray for her support for earmarks. In response, Murray said, "You bet that seniority and leadership has a big thing to do with it, but the other part of it is, I get up every day and I work hard and I believe in this and I am going to continue fighting for the community I represent." [18]

The National Rifle Association spent $414,100 supporting Rossi and opposing Murray in the 2010 senatorial contest. [19]

Debates

Rossi offered six debates, five of which would be in-state and one nationally. [20] Murray agreed to two debates, and only two debates were held. [21]

Fundraising

Candidate (party)ReceiptsDisbursementsCash on handDebt
Patty Murray (D)$10,951,403$12,438,133$1,032,034$0
Dino Rossi (R)$7,365,098$4,331,414$2,960,039$0
Source: Federal Election Commission [22]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
Cook Political Report [23] TossupOctober 26, 2010
Rothenberg [24] TossupNovember 1, 2010
RealClearPolitics [25] TossupOctober 26, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball [26] Lean DOctober 21, 2010
CQ Politics [27] TossupOctober 26, 2010

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		Patty
Murray (D)		Dino
Rossi (R)		Other/Undecided
[lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
Real Clear Politics [28] October 24–31, 2010October 31, 201048.3%48.0%3.7%Murray +0.3%
Poll sourceDate(s) administeredSample
size		Margin
of error		Patty
Murray (D)		Dino
Rossi (R)		OtherUndecided
Moore Information [29] January 23–24, 2010500± 4.4%43%45%––––
Rasmussen Reports [30] February 11, 2010500± 4.5%46%48%1%5%
Rasmussen Reports [31] March 9, 2010500± 4.5%46%49%3%2%
Research 2000 [32] March 22–24, 2010600± 4.0%52%41%––7%
Rasmussen Reports [33] April 6, 2010500± 4.5%48%46%3%4%
Survey USA [34] April 22, 2010517± 4.4%42%52%––7%
The Washington Poll [35] May 3–23, 2010626± 3.9%44%40%––16%
Rasmussen Reports [33] May 4, 2010500± 4.5%48%46%2%3%
Rasmussen Reports [36] May 25, 2010500± 4.5%48%47%2%4%
The Washington Poll [37] May 24–28, 2010221± 6.6%39%42%5%13%
The Washington Poll [35] May 28 – June 7, 2010848± 3.3%42%40%––12%
Elway Research [38] June 13, 2010405± 5.0%47%40%––13%
Rasmussen Reports [39] June 22, 2010500± 4.5%47%47%3%3%
Rasmussen Reports [40] July 14, 2010750± 4.0%45%48%3%3%
Rasmussen Reports [33] July 30, 2010750± 4.0%49%47%2%2%
Public Policy Polling [13] July 27 – August 1, 20101,204± 2.8%49%46%––5%
Rasmussen Reports [41] August 18, 2010750± 4.0%48%44%4%4%
Survey USA [42] August 18, 2010618± 4.0%45%52%––––
Rasmussen Reports [43] August 31, 2010750± 4.0%46%48%3%3%
Elway Research [44] September 9–12, 2010500± 4.5%50%41%3%7%
CNN/Time [45] September 10–14, 2010906± 3.5%53%44%2%1%
Rasmussen Reports [46] September 16, 2010750± 4.0%51%46%1%2%
SurveyUSA [47] September 22, 2010609± 4.1%50%48%––3%
Fox News [48] September 25, 20101,000± 3.0%48%47%2%3%
Rasmussen Reports [46] September 28, 2010750± 4.0%47%48%2%3%
Rasmussen Reports [46] October 6, 2010750± 4.0%46%49%3%2%
Fox News [49] October 9, 20101,000± 3.0%46%47%7%0%
Elway [50] October 7–11, 2010450± 4.6%55%40%0%5%
CNN/Opinion Research [51] October 8–12, 2010850± 3.5%51%43%2%0%
The Washington Poll [52] October 4–14, 2010500± 4.3%50%42%––8%
SurveyUSA [53] October 11–14, 2010606± 4.1%50%47%0%3%
Public Policy Polling [54] October 14–16, 20101,873± 2.3%49%47%––4%
McClatchy/Marist [55] October 14–17, 2010589± 4.0%48%47%1%5%
Rasmussen Reports [56] October 17, 2010750± 4.0%49%46%2%3%
Rasmussen Reports [46] October 27, 2010750± 4.0%47%48%3%2%
SurveyUSA [57] October 24–27, 2010678± 3.8%47%47%––6%
The Washington Poll [58] October 18–28, 2010500± 4.3%51%45%––4%
Marist College [59] October 26–28, 2010838± 3.5%49%48%2%1%
Fox News/Pulse Opinion Research [60] October 30, 20101,000± 3.0%49%47%4%0%
YouGov [61] October 25–30, 2010850± 4.1%50%48%0%2%
Public Policy Polling [62] October 29–31, 20102,055± 2.2%48%50%0%2%

Results

Murray defeated Rossi by about 114,000 votes. King County, the home of Seattle, likely gave Murray a victory. [63]

General election results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Patty Murray (incumbent) 1,314,930 52.08%
Republican Dino Rossi 1,196,16447.37%
Write-in 13,9390.55%
Total votes2,525,033 100.00%
Turnout 71.24
Democratic hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Murray won 5 of 9 congressional districts. [64]

DistrictMurrayRossiRepresentative
1st 56%44% Jay Inslee
2nd 51%49% Rick Larsen
3rd 47%53% Brian Baird
Jaime Herrera Beutler
4th 36%64% Doc Hastings
5th 41%59% Cathy McMorris Rodgers
6th 53%47% Norm Dicks
7th 81%19% Jim McDermott
8th 49%51% Dave Reichert
9th 53%47% Adam Smith

Notes

  1. ↑ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.

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References

  1. ↑ "REPORTS IMAGE INDEX FOR CANDIDATE ID S0WA00332". Images.nictusa.com. May 13, 2010. Archived from the original on March 3, 2016. Retrieved June 14, 2010.
  2. ↑ "REPORTS IMAGE INDEX FOR COMMITTEE ID C00483461". Images.nictusa.com. May 13, 2010. Archived from the original on March 3, 2016. Retrieved June 14, 2010.
  3. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 "Candidates who have filed". Wei.secstate.wa.gov. Archived from the original on June 11, 2010. Retrieved June 14, 2010.
  4. ↑ Rothenberg, Stuart. "Reasons to Keep Your Eye on Patty Murray". CQ Politics. Retrieved June 14, 2010.[ permanent dead link ]
  5. ↑ "Home". Akers for US Senate. Archived from the original on February 9, 2010. Retrieved June 14, 2010.
  6. ↑ "REPORTS IMAGE INDEX FOR CANDIDATE ID S4WA00466". Images.nictusa.com. Archived from the original on March 3, 2016. Retrieved June 14, 2010.
  7. ↑ Song, Kyung (January 4, 2010). "Ex-footballer latest GOP challenger to Murray's Senate seat". The Seattle Times . Retrieved January 30, 2010.
  8. ↑ "REPORTS IMAGE INDEX FOR CANDIDATE ID S0WA00340". Images.nictusa.com. Archived from the original on July 23, 2012. Retrieved June 14, 2010.
  9. ↑ Spokesman-Review (June 1, 2010). "Mercer staying in U.S. Senate race – Spin Control – Spokesman.com – June 1, 2010". Spokesman.com. Retrieved June 14, 2010.
  10. ↑ Elway Research
  11. ↑ Elway Research Archived February 19, 2012, at the Wayback Machine
  12. ↑ Survey USA
  13. 1 2 Public Policy Polling
  14. ↑ Survey USA
  15. ↑ "August 17, 2010 Primary – Federal". Vote.wa.gov. August 17, 2010. Archived from the original on August 21, 2010. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
  16. ↑ "The 2010 Results Maps". Politico.Com. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
  17. ↑ "The Stimulus 18-Month Check Up: Murray Plan Means Big Debt, Few Jobs | Dino Rossi for Senate". Archived from the original on November 11, 2010. Retrieved September 1, 2010.
  18. ↑ Brunner, Jim (August 7, 2010). "Murray touts bringing home the bucks". The Seattle Times.
  19. ↑ "Campaign cash: National Rifle Association (washingtonpost.com)". www.washingtonpost.com. Retrieved February 16, 2018.
  20. ↑ Brunner, Jim (August 20, 2010). "Rossi wants six debates with Murray". The Seattle Times.
  21. ↑ Brunner, Jim (August 27, 2010). "Murray agrees to two debates". The Seattle Times.
  22. ↑ "2010 House and Senate Campaign Finance for Washington". fec.gov. Archived from the original on May 22, 2010. Retrieved May 28, 2010.
  23. ↑ "Senate". Cook Political Report . Retrieved October 26, 2010.
  24. ↑ "Senate Ratings". Rothenberg Political Report . Retrieved October 26, 2010.
  25. ↑ "Battle for the Senate". RealClearPolitics . Retrieved October 26, 2010.
  26. ↑ "2010 Senate Ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Archived from the original on October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 26, 2010.
  27. ↑ "Race Ratings Chart: Senate". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 26, 2010.
  28. ↑ Real Clear Politics
  29. ↑ Moore Information
  30. ↑ Rasmussen Reports
  31. ↑ Rasmussen Reports
  32. ↑ Research 2000
  33. 1 2 3 Rasmussen Reports
  34. ↑ Survey USA
  35. 1 2 The Washington Poll
  36. ↑ Rasmussen Reports
  37. ↑ The Washington Poll
  38. ↑ Elway Research
  39. ↑ Rasmussen Reports
  40. ↑ Rasmussen Reports
  41. ↑ Rasmussen Reports
  42. ↑ Survey USA
  43. ↑ Rasmussen Reports
  44. ↑ Elway Research
  45. ↑ CNN/Time
  46. 1 2 3 4 Rasmussen Reports
  47. ↑ SurveyUSA
  48. ↑ Fox News
  49. ↑ Fox News
  50. ↑ Elway [ permanent dead link ]
  51. ↑ CNN/Opinion Research
  52. ↑ The Washington Poll
  53. ↑ SurveyUSA
  54. ↑ Public Policy Polling
  55. ↑ McClatchy/Marist
  56. ↑ Rasmussen Reports
  57. ↑ SurveyUSA
  58. ↑ The Washington Poll
  59. ↑ Marist College
  60. ↑ Fox News/Pulse Opinion Research
  61. ↑ YouGov
  62. ↑ Public Policy Polling
  63. ↑ "November 2, 2010 General – Federal". Archived from the original on November 11, 2010. Retrieved November 11, 2010.
  64. ↑ Results. sos.wa.gov (Report).

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