2024 United States Senate election in Washington

Last updated

2024 United States Senate election in Washington
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  Maria Cantwell (cropped).jpg Raul Garcia.png
Nominee Maria Cantwell Raul Garcia
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote2,252,5771,549,187
Percentage59.09%40.64%
2024 United States Senate election in Washington results map by county.svg
2024 United States Senate election in Washington results by congressional district.svg
WA Senate 2024.svg
Cantwell:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Garcia:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tie:     40–50%     50%     No votes
U.S. senator before election

Maria Cantwell
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Maria Cantwell
Democratic

The 2024 United States Senate election in Washington was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Washington. Democratic incumbent Senator Maria Cantwell was elected to her fifth term, winning over Republican physician Raul Garcia.

Contents

Primary election

The blanket primary election was held on August 6, 2024. [1]

Democratic candidates

Advanced to general

Eliminated in primary

  • Paul Giesick, blue collar worker [3]

Republican candidates

Advanced to general

  • Raul Garcia, physician and candidate for governor in 2020 [4]

Eliminated in primary

  • Goodspaceguy, amateur astronomer and perennial candidate [3]
  • Isaac Holyk, software development company CEO and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2022 [3]
  • Scott Nazarino, financial consultant and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2016 [3]
  • Mel Ram, private investigator [3]

Declined

Third party and independent candidates

Eliminated in primary

  • Thor Amundson (Independent), project expediter and perennial candidate [3]
  • Henry Dennison (Socialist Workers), political organizer and perennial candidate [3]
  • Chuck Jackson (Independent), merchant mariner and perennial candidate [3]
  • David Tilton (Independent), data analyst [3]

Endorsements

Raul Garcia (R)

U.S. representatives

Statewide officials

State legislators

Local officials

Organizations

Political parties

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Maria Cantwell (D)$11,651,974$5,128,836$7,093,030
Raul Garcia (R)$558,646$394,077$164,568
Isaac Holyk (R)$6,846$7,278$0
Source: Federal Election Commission [28]

Results

Results by county: .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} Cantwell--70-80% Cantwell--50-60% Cantwell--40-50% Cantwell--30-40% Garcia--30-40% Garcia--40-50% 2024-washington-senate-primary.svg
Results by county:
  Cantwell—70–80%
  Cantwell—50–60%
  Cantwell—40–50%
  Cantwell—30–40%
  Garcia—30–40%
  Garcia—40–50%

Cantwell won 28 counties out of 39, including 9 out of the state's 10 most populous ones. She performed especially well in the most populous King County, as well as San Juan and Jefferson counties. [29]

Blanket primary results [30]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Maria Cantwell (incumbent) 1,114,327 57.18%
Republican Raul Garcia 431,182 22.13%
Republican Scott Nazarino111,3865.72%
Republican Isaac Holyk110,7015.68%
Republican Mel Ram86,9564.46%
Independent Chuck Jackson21,0551.08%
Independent David Tilton17,5610.90%
Democratic Paul Giesick17,4330.89%
Republican Goodspaceguy 16,8260.86%
Independent Thor Amundson10,5870.54%
Socialist Workers Henry Dennison7,8400.40%
Write-in 2,8620.15%
Total votes1,948,716 100.0%

General election

Debate

2024 United States Senate election in Washington debate
No.DateHostModeratorLink Democratic Republican
Key:
 P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited  W  Withdrawn
Maria Cantwell Raul Garcia
1Oct. 8, 2024 Gonzaga University
KSPS-TV
The Black Lens
The Spokesman-Review
Washington State Debate Coalition		Orion Donovan Smith TVW [31] PP

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [32] Solid DNovember 9, 2023
Inside Elections [33] Solid DNovember 9, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball [34] Safe DNovember 9, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill [35] Safe DJune 8, 2024
Elections Daily [36] Safe DMay 4, 2023
CNalysis [37] Solid DNovember 21, 2023
RealClearPolitics [38] Solid DAugust 5, 2024
Split Ticket [39] Safe DOctober 23, 2024
538 [40] Solid DOctober 23, 2024

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		Maria
Cantwell (D)		Raul
Garcia (R)		Undecided
[a] 		Margin
270ToWin [41] October 20 - November 4, 2024November 4, 202455.5%38.0%6.5%Cantwell +17.5%
TheHill/DDHQ [42] through November 3, 2024November 4, 202457.8%38.9%3.3%Cantwell +18.9%
Average56.7%38.5%4.8%Cantwell +18.2%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [b] 		Margin
of error		Maria
Cantwell (D)		Raul
Garcia (R)		OtherUndecided
Research Co. [43] November 2–3, 2024450 (LV)± 4.6%58%38%–4%
Public Policy Polling (D) [44] [A] October 16–17, 2024571 (LV)± 4.1%53%38%–9%
SurveyUSA [45] [B] October 9–14, 2024703 (LV)± 4.9%55%32%–13%
Cascade PBS/Elway Research [46] September 3–6, 2024403 (RV)± 5.0%55%33%4% [c] 7%
Public Policy Polling (D) [47] [A] July 24–25, 2024581 (LV)± 4.0%55%32%6% [d] 7%
SurveyUSA [48] [B] July 10–13, 2024564 (LV)± 5.1%58%37%–5%
Public Policy Polling (D) [49] [A] May 15–16, 2024615 (LV)± 4.0%53%38%–9%
Cascade PBS/Elway Research [50] May 13–16, 2024403 (RV)± 5.0%39%30%1% [e] 30%
Echelon Insights (R) [51] [C] March 18–21, 2024600 (RV)± 4.7%44%36%–19%
Public Policy Polling (D) [52] [A] February 13–14, 2024789 (LV)± 3.5%53%37%–10%
Public Policy Polling (D) [53] [A] November 14–15, 2023700 (LV)± 3.7%51%38%–11%
Elway Research [54] [D] October 30 – November 3, 2023403 (RV)± 5.0%43%23%9% [f] 25%
Hypothetical polling

Maria Cantwell vs. Jaime Herrera Beutler

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [b] 		Margin
of error		Maria
Cantwell (D)		Jaime
Herrera Beutler (R)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) [55] [A] June 7–8, 2023773 (LV)± 3.5%52%37%11%
Public Policy Polling (D) [56] [A] March 7–8, 2023874 (LV)± 3.3%50%35%14%

Results

2024 United States Senate election in Washington [57]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Maria Cantwell (incumbent) 2,252,577 59.09% +0.66%
Republican Raul Garcia1,549,18740.64%−0.93%
Write-in 10,6270.28%N/A
Total votes3,812,391 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold

By county

By county
County [58] Maria Cantwell

Democratic

Raul Garcia

Republican

Write-InTotal
%#%#%#
Adams 31.44%1,62767.71%3,5040.85%445,175
Asotin 39.70%4,38659.98%6,6270.33%3611,049
Benton 40.52%39,59559.16%57,8040.32%31397,712
Chelan 45.89%18,88453.87%22,1680.23%9641,148
Clallam 53.96%25,48745.86%21,6630.18%8347,233
Clark 53.57%142,66946.08%122,7120.34%918266,299
Columbia 30.81%74568.57%1,6580.62%152,418
Cowlitz 42.42%24,32957.28%32,8540.30%17157,354
Douglas 38.32%7,89261.37%12,6370.31%6420,593
Ferry 35.80%1,43164.00%2,5580.20%83,997
Franklin 40.71%12,53859.13%18,2120.16%5030,800
Garfield 30.82%41369.10%9260.07%11,340
Grant 33.20%11,66466.59%23,3900.21%7435,128
Grays Harbor 48.90%18,06150.82%18,7720.28%10536,938
Island 57.28%29,21642.50%21,6770.22%11451,007
Jefferson 72.28%17,62127.52%6,7080.20%4924,378
King 75.06%828,20424.64%271,8320.31%3,3701,103,406
Kitsap 59.55%91,34840.24%61,7340.21%327153,409
Kittitas 42.98%11,02856.73%14,5560.28%7325,657
Klickitat 45.42%5,96254.28%7,1250.30%4013,127
Lewis 36.10%15,91263.60%28,0300.30%13244,074
Lincoln 26.96%1,88972.77%5,0990.27%197,007
Mason 49.39%17,59350.15%17,8650.45%16235,620
Okanogan 44.81%9,02254.93%11,0600.25%5120,133
Pacific 52.46%7,27347.26%6,5520.27%3813,863
Pend Oreille 32.67%2,72167.05%5,5850.28%238,329
Pierce 54.96%235,82944.83%192,3660.21%899429,094
San Juan 74.38%9,46625.26%3,2140.36%4612,726
Skagit 53.82%34,47245.96%29,4380.22%14364,053
Skamania 45.28%3,20654.44%3,8550.28%207,081
Snohomish 58.85%239,05940.90%166,1170.25%1,020406,196
Spokane 47.86%132,64451.84%143,6800.30%842277,166
Stevens 29.59%8,13870.06%19,2700.35%9627,504
Thurston 59.92%96,08639.79%63,7960.29%462160,344
Wahkiakum 44.18%1,30555.55%1,6410.27%82,954
Walla Walla 47.06%13,62152.83%15,2930.11%3228,946
Whatcom 61.53%83,35538.26%51,8360.21%290135,481
Whitman 54.62%10,69845.21%8,8560.17%3419,588
Yakima 44.24%37,18855.34%46,5170.43%35984,064
Total59.09%2,252,57740.64%1,549,1870.28%10,6273,812,391

By congressional district

Cantwell won seven of 10 congressional districts, with the remaining three going to Garcia, including one that elected a Democrat. [59]

DistrictCantwellGarciaRepresentative
1st 63%37% Suzan DelBene
2nd 61%39% Rick Larsen
3rd 49%50% Marie Gluesenkamp Perez
4th 41%58% Dan Newhouse
5th 45%54% Cathy McMorris Rodgers (118th Congress)
Michael Baumgartner (119th Congress)
6th 59%41% Derek Kilmer (118th Congress)
Emily Randall (119th Congress)
7th 86%13% Pramila Jayapal
8th 52%48% Kim Schrier
9th 71%28% Adam Smith
10th 59%41% Marilyn Strickland

Notes

  1. ↑ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. 1 2 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ↑ "No answer" with 3%; "I may not vote in this race" with 1%
  4. ↑ "Another candidate" with 6%
  5. ↑ "Someone else" with 1%
  6. ↑ "A different Republican" with 6%; "A different Democrat" with 3%

Partisan clients

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Poll sponsored by the Northwest Progressive Institute
  2. 1 2 Poll sponsored by The Seattle Times , KING-TV, and University of Washington Information School
  3. ↑ Poll sponsored by Concerned Taxpayers of Washington State PAC
  4. ↑ Poll sponsored by Crosscut.com

References

  1. ↑ "Primary elections in Washington, 2024". Ballotpedia. Retrieved November 10, 2023.
  2. ↑ Everett, Burgess (April 13, 2023). "Will Women US Senators Run the Table in 2024?". Smart Politics. Retrieved July 7, 2023. eight of the 14 women in the chamber up for election have already announced they are seeking another term: Republican Deb Fischer of Nebraska and Democrats Mazie Hirono of Hawaii, Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, Jacky Rosen of Nevada (pictured), Kirsten Gillibrand of New York, Maria Cantwell of Washington, and Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin.
  3. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 "PRIMARY 2024 Candidate List". voter.votewa.gov. Retrieved May 9, 2024.
  4. ↑ Sowersby, Shauna (July 7, 2023). "Raul Garcia drops out of governor's race, will run for US Senate in 2024". KING-TV . Retrieved July 7, 2023.
  5. ↑ Dinman, Emry (February 16, 2024). "Brian Dansel and John Guenther enter race for Congress; Michael Baumgartner, Nadine Woodward considering". The Spokesman-Review. Retrieved February 16, 2024. [Guenther] initially planned to run for Senate again, this time against Cantwell, but decided to run for U.S. House
  6. ↑ "Support Pro-Israel Candidates". AIPAC PAC. Retrieved April 7, 2023.
  7. ↑ Wang, Danni (April 27, 2023). "Emilys List Endorses Maria Cantwell for Reelection to the United States Senate". Emilys List. Retrieved October 2, 2023.
  8. ↑ "2024 – Feminist Majority PAC". feministmajoritypac.org. Retrieved February 9, 2024.
  9. ↑ "2024 Endorsements". 2024 Endorsements. Retrieved March 25, 2024.
  10. ↑ "Jewish Dems: President Biden Stands with Israel". Jewish Democratic Council of America. Retrieved May 10, 2024.
  11. ↑ "Meet JAC's 2024 Candidates | Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs". jacpac.org. Archived from the original on September 1, 2023. Retrieved September 1, 2023.
  12. ↑ "Maria Cantwell". JStreetPAC. Retrieved August 26, 2023.
  13. ↑ "LCV Action Fund Announces First Round of Congressional Endorsements". League of Conservation Voters. Retrieved July 27, 2023.
  14. ↑ Dison, Denis (September 20, 2023). "NRDC Action Fund Endorses 51 House, Senate Incumbents". NRDC Action Fund. Retrieved September 20, 2023.
  15. ↑ "Endorsed Candidates". National Women's Political Caucus. Retrieved March 18, 2024.
  16. ↑ "2024 Planned Parenthood Action Fund Endorsed Candidates". Planned Parenthood Action Fund . Retrieved November 6, 2023.
  17. ↑ "2024 Endorsements". Population Connection Action Fund. Retrieved August 25, 2023.
  18. ↑ "Our Recommended Candidates". Education Votes. Retrieved May 26, 2024.
  19. ↑ Villeneuve, Andrew (May 19, 2024). "Read the list of candidates endorsed by the Washington State Labor Council for the 2024 cycle". NPI's Cascadia Advocate. Retrieved May 26, 2024.
  20. ↑ "Here's who The Seattle Times editorial board recommends for U.S. Senate | Editorial". The Seattle Times. July 19, 2024. Retrieved July 22, 2024.
  21. ↑ Board, Stranger Election Control. "The Stranger's Endorsements for the August, 6, 2024 Primary Election". The Stranger. Retrieved July 22, 2024.
  22. ↑ staff, Source ONE News (July 17, 2024). "Colville Tribes Endorse Maria Cantwell for U.S. Senate Re-election". Source ONE News. Retrieved July 22, 2024.
  23. ↑ O'Sullivan, Joseph (July 7, 2023). "Raul Garcia drops WA governor bid after Dave Reichert announces run". Crosscut.com . Retrieved July 12, 2023.
  24. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Villeneuve, Andrew (November 17, 2023). "Senator Maria Cantwell leads Republican challenger Raul Garcia by thirteen points". The Cascadia Advocate . Retrieved November 29, 2023.
  25. ↑ https://www.washingtonmainstream.org/endorsements-1
  26. ↑ "Endorsements and discord: WA GOP wraps up Spokane convention". April 20, 2024. Retrieved April 23, 2024.
  27. ↑ https://spokanegop.com/
  28. ↑ "2024 Election United States Senate - Washington". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission . Retrieved August 11, 2023.
  29. ↑ "2024 Washington Election Results". AP News. Retrieved August 22, 2024.
  30. ↑ "Certification of Results" (PDF). Washington Secretary of State.
  31. ↑ TVW
  32. ↑ "2024 Senate Race ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 25, 2023.
  33. ↑ "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. January 6, 2023. Retrieved January 10, 2023.
  34. ↑ "2024 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. January 24, 2023. Retrieved February 13, 2023.
  35. ↑ "2024 Senate prediction map". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. June 8, 2024. Retrieved June 8, 2024.
  36. ↑ "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. August 1, 2023. Retrieved August 2, 2023.
  37. ↑ "'24 Senate Forecast". CNalysis. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
  38. ↑ "Battle for the Senate 2024". RealClearPolitics . Retrieved August 5, 2024.
  39. ↑ "2024 Senate Forecast". Split Ticket. Retrieved October 23, 2024.
  40. ↑ "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved October 23, 2024.
  41. ↑ 270ToWin
  42. ↑ TheHill/DDHQ
  43. ↑ Research Co.
  44. ↑ Public Policy Polling (D)
  45. ↑ SurveyUSA
  46. ↑ Cascade PBS/Elway Research
  47. ↑ Public Policy Polling (D)
  48. ↑ SurveyUSA
  49. ↑ Public Policy Polling (D)
  50. ↑ Cascade PBS/Elway Research
  51. ↑ Echelon Insights (R)
  52. ↑ Public Policy Polling (D)
  53. ↑ Public Policy Polling (D)
  54. ↑ Elway Research
  55. ↑ Public Policy Polling (D)
  56. ↑ Public Policy Polling (D)
  57. ↑ "Official Canvass of the Returns" (PDF). Secretary of State of Washington . Retrieved December 4, 2024.
  58. ↑ https://results.vote.wa.gov/results/20241105/us-senator_bycounty.html
  59. ↑ 2024Gen Results by Congressional District (PDF). sos.wa.gov (Report). Archived (PDF) from the original on December 28, 2024.

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