2024 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania

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2024 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania
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←  2020 November 5, 20242028 →
  Joe Biden presidential portrait (cropped).jpg Donald Trump 2023 (cropped).jpg
Nominee Joe Biden
(presumptive)		 Donald Trump
(presumptive)
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Delaware Florida
Running mate Kamala Harris
(presumptive)		 TBA
Incumbent President

Joe Biden
Democratic



The 2024 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Pennsylvania voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Pennsylvania has 19 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state lost a seat. [1]

Contents

A purple to slightly blue Northeastern state partly within the Rust Belt, Pennsylvania has not backed a Republican for president by double digits since 1972, when 49-state landslide winner Richard Nixon won it by nearly 20 points; and the last Republican to win the state's electoral votes twice was Ronald Reagan. Between 1992 and 2012, Pennsylvania voted Democrat in every presidential election, although doing so by single-digit margins in each of them apart from Barack Obama's 10.31% victory in 2008. In 2016, Republican Donald Trump (whose home state was neighboring New York in said cycle) narrowly carried the state by 0.72% in his upset sweep of the Rust Belt and the first Republican presidential victory in Pennsylvania since 1988, but four years later lost the state to Democrat Joe Biden — a native Pennsylvanian representing neighboring Delaware — by 1.18% as the latter defeated the former nationwide. Pennsylvania is considered to be a crucial swing state in 2024, with most major news organizations marking it as a tossup. [2]

Incumbent Democratic president and Pennsylvanian-born Joe Biden is running for reelection to a second term. [3]

Primary elections

Democratic primary

The Pennsylvania Democratic presidential primary will take place on April 23, 2024.

Republican primary

The Pennsylvania Republican presidential primary will be held on April 23, 2024.

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [4] TossupDecember 19, 2023
Inside Elections [5] TossupApril 2024
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill [6] TossupDecember 14, 2023
CNalysis [7] TossupDecember 30, 2023
CNN [8] TossupJanuary 14, 2024

Polling

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Donald
Trump
Republican		Other /
Undecided
Fox News April 11–16, 20241,141 (RV)± 3.0%48%48%4%
Franklin & Marshall College March 20–31, 2024870 (RV)± 4.0%48%38%14%
Wall Street Journal March 17–24, 2024600 (RV)± 4.0%44%47%9%
Echelon Insights [upper-alpha 1] March 12–19, 2024400 (LV)± 5.5%45%49%6%
CNN/SSRS March 13–18, 20241,132 (RV)± 3.8%46%46%8%
Emerson College March 10–13, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%48%52%–
Bloomberg/Morning Consult March 8–12, 2024807 (RV)± 3.0%45%45%10%
Fox News March 7–11, 20241,149 (RV)± 3.0%47%49%4%
Susquehanna Polling & Research February 27 – March 7, 2024450 (LV)± 4.6%50%45%5%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult February 12–20, 2024803 (RV)± 3.0%43%49%8%
Emerson College February 14–16, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%43%45%12%
Chism Strategies February 6–8, 2024500 (RV)± 5.0%32%40%28%
Public Opinion Strategies (R) January 22–25, 2024800 (LV)± 3.5%42%48%10%
Franklin & Marshall College January 17–28, 2024507 (RV)± 5.0%43%42%15%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult January 16–21, 2024795 (RV)± 3.0%45%48%7%
Susquehanna Polling & Research January 15–21, 2024745 (RV)± 3.7%47%39%14%
Quinnipiac University January 4–8, 20241,680 (RV)± 2.4%49%46%5% [lower-alpha 2]
The Bullfinch Group December 14–18, 2023600 (RV)± 4.0%45%45%10%
Change Research/Future Majority (D) December 3–7, 2023(RVs)–40%46%14%
Muhlenberg College November 20 – December 13, 2023421 (RV)± 6.0%42%41%17%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult November 27 – December 6, 2023799 (RV)± 3.0%44%46%10%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult October 30 – November 7, 2023805 (RV)± 3.0%44%47%9%
Emerson College October 30 – November 4, 20231,000 (RV)± 3.0%43%46%11%
816 (LV)–45%49%6%
New York Times/Siena College October 22 – November 3, 2023600 (RV)± 4.6%44%48%8%
Franklin & Marshall College October 11–22, 2023873 (RV)± 4.1%44%42%14%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult October 5–10, 2023807 (RV)± 3.0%45%46%9%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies October 7–9, 2023900 (LV)–43%42%15%
Emerson College October 1–4, 2023430 (RV)± 4.7%36%45%19%
Quinnipiac University September 28 – October 2, 20231,725 (RV)± 2.4%45%47%8%
Public Policy Polling (D) [upper-alpha 2] September 25–26, 2023673 (RV)± 3.8%48%45%7%
Quinnipiac University June 22–26, 20231,584 (RV)± 2.5%46%47%7%
Public Opinion Strategies (R) April 11–13, 2023500 (RV)± 4.4%46%42%12%
Franklin & Marshall College March 27 – April 7, 2023643 (RV)± 4.9%36%35%29%
Susquehanna Polling & Research February 19–26, 2023800 (RV)± 3.2%48%41%11%
Targoz Market Research November 2–6, 2022631 (LV)± 3.8%46%52%2%
Emerson College October 28–31, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%44%44%12%
Emerson College September 23–26, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%45%46%9%
Echelon Insights August 31 – September 7, 2022828 (LV)± 3.5%48%43%9%
Emerson College August 22–23, 20221,034 (LV)± 3.0%42%47%11%
PEM Management Corporation (R) [upper-alpha 3] July 22–24, 2022300 (LV)± 5.7%42%44%14%
Blueprint Polling (D) July 19–21, 2022712 (LV)± 3.7%42%41%17%
Blueprint Polling (D) February 15–16, 2022635 (LV)± 3.9%45%40%15%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R) [upper-alpha 4] November 11–16, 2021600 (LV)± 4.0%45%51%4%
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Donald
Trump
Republican		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent		Cornel
West
Independent		Jill
Stein
Green		Other /
Undecided
Fox News April 11–16, 20241,141 (RV)± 3.0%42%44%8%1%2%3%
Wall Street Journal March 17–24, 2024600 (RV)± 4.0%38%41%7%3%1%10%
Emerson College March 10–13, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%40%44%5%1%1%9%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult March 8–12, 2024807 (RV)± 3.0%38%44%7%0%1%10%
Fox News March 7–11, 20241,149 (RV)± 3.0%42%42%9%2%2%3%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult February 12–20, 2024803 (RV)± 3.0%36%45%8%1%1%9%
Emerson College February 14–16, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%37%42%8%2%1%10%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult January 16–21, 2024795 (RV)± 3.0%40%43%7%1%1%8%
Quinnipiac University January 4–8, 20231,680 (RV)± 2.4%41%39%11%2%4%3% [lower-alpha 3]
Bloomberg/Morning Consult November 27 – December 6, 2023799 (RV)± 3.0%38%39%9%1%1%12%
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Donald
Trump
Republican		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent		Jill
Stein
Green		Other /
Undecided
Franklin & Marshall College March 20–31, 2024870 (RV)± 4.0%42%40%9%3%8%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies March 14–17, 2024775 (LV)–41%44%7%1%7%
Franklin & Marshall College January 17–28, 2024494 (RV)± 5.0%42%37%8%2%11%
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Donald
Trump
Republican		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent		Other /
Undecided
The Bullfinch Group [upper-alpha 5] March 22–26, 2024800 (RV)± 3.5%44%41%7%8%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies December 28–30, 20231,069 (LV)–39%40%9%12%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies November 27–29, 2023887 (LV)–37%44%7%10%
New York Times/Siena College October 22 – November 3, 2023600 (LV)± 4.635%35%23%7%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies October 7–9, 2023900 (LV)–39%39%9%13%
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Donald
Trump
Republican		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent		Cornel
West
Independent		Other /
Undecided
CNN/SSRS March 13–18, 20241,132 (RV)± 3.8%38%40%16%4%4%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult October 30 – November 7, 2023805 (RV)± 3.0%38%41%8%1%12%
Hypothetical polling
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Kamala
Harris
Democratic		Donald
Trump
Republican		Other /
Undecided
Emerson College February 14–16, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%40%49%11%
New York Times/Siena College October 22 – November 3, 2023600 (RV)± 4.6%44%47%9%
Gavin Newsom vs. Donald Trump
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Gavin
Newsom
Democratic		Donald
Trump
Republican		Other /
Undecided
Emerson College February 14–16, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%33%48%19%
Josh Shapiro vs. Donald Trump
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Josh
Shapiro
Democratic		Donald
Trump
Republican		Other /
Undecided
Muhlenberg College November 20 – December 13, 2023421 (RV)± 6.0%48%37%15%
Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Nikki
Haley
Republican		Other /
Undecided
Muhlenberg College November 20 – December 13, 2023421 (RV)± 6.0%33%38%29%
New York Times/Siena College October 22 – November 3, 2023600 (RV)± 4.6%39%49%12%
Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Nikki
Haley
Republican		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent		OtherUndecided
Redfield & Wilton Strategies November 27–29, 2023887 (LV)–36%26%18%7%13%


Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Ron
DeSantis
Republican		Other /
Undecided
Muhlenberg College November 20 – December 13, 2023421 (RV)± 6.0%41%39%20%
New York Times/Siena College October 22 – November 3, 2023600 (RV)± 4.6%43%47%10%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) May 2–8, 2023700 (LV)± 3.7%48%39%12%
Public Opinion Strategies (R) April 11–13, 2023500 (RV)± 4.4%42%45%13%
Echelon Insights August 31 – September 7, 2022828 (LV)± 3.5%46%42%12%
Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Ron
DeSantis
Republican		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent		OtherUndecided
Redfield & Wilton Strategies November 27–29, 2023887 (LV)–37%34%13%3%12%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Ron DeSantis
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Democratic		Ron
DeSantis
Republican		Other /
Undecided
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) May 2–8, 2023700 (LV)± 3.7%42%38%20%

Debate

The sole vice presidential debate is scheduled to be held at Lafayette College in Easton on September 25, 2024, sponsored by the Commission on Presidential Debates. Whether either major party nominee will attend the debates has been called into question due to conflicts with the commission regarding the 2020 debates. [9]

See also

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ↑ "Undecided" & "Wouldn't vote" with 2%; "Someone else" with 1%
  3. ↑ "Undecided" with 2%; "Someone else" with 1%
Partisan clients
  1. ↑ Poll sponsored by The Heritage Foundation
  2. ↑ Poll commissioned by Save My Country Action Fund
  3. ↑ Poll conducted for the John Bolton Super PAC
  4. ↑ Poll sponsored by Trump's campaign
  5. ↑ Poll sponsored by Commonwealth Foundation

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References

  1. ↑ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
  2. ↑ "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved March 9, 2024.
  3. ↑ Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC.
  4. ↑ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  5. ↑ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  6. ↑ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  7. ↑ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  8. ↑ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN . Retrieved January 14, 2024.
  9. ↑ Cohen, Ethan (November 20, 2023). "Commission on Presidential Debates announces dates and locations for 2024 general election debates". CNN. Archived from the original on November 20, 2023. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
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