2022 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election

Last updated

2022 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election
Flag of Pennsylvania.svg
  2018 November 8, 2022 2026  
Turnout60.5%
  Josh Shapiro 2023 (3x4).jpg Doug Mastriano Civilian.png
Nominee Josh Shapiro Doug Mastriano
Party Democratic Republican
Running mate Austin Davis Carrie DelRosso
Popular vote3,031,1372,238,477
Percentage56.49%41.71%

2022 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
2022 Pennsylvania Governor election by Congressional District.svg
2022 Pennsylvania Governor Election by State Senate district.svg
2022 Pennsylvania Governor Election by State House district.svg
2022 Pennsylvania Governor Precinct Map.svg
Shapiro:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Mastriano:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tie:     40–50%     50%     No data

Governor before election

Tom Wolf
Democratic

Elected Governor

Josh Shapiro
Democratic

The 2022 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election was held on November 8, 2022, to elect the governor and lieutenant governor of Pennsylvania. Democratic state attorney general Josh Shapiro defeated Republican state senator Doug Mastriano to win his first term in office. Shapiro succeeded Democratic incumbent Tom Wolf, who was term limited.

Contents

In the primaries on May 17, 2022, Shapiro was unopposed for the Democratic nomination. Mastriano, who was endorsed by former president Donald Trump, won the Republican nomination with 44% of the vote over former congressman Lou Barletta and former U.S. attorney William McSwain. Although the election was expected to be competitive due to Pennsylvania's reputation as a swing state, Mastriano had trouble fundraising, made few media appearances, committed multiple gaffes, was accused of antisemitism against Shapiro, and generated controversy from his far-right positions. [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] Mastriano's struggles helped Shapiro take a strong polling lead that continued up to the election.

Shapiro defeated Mastriano by almost 15 points, the largest margin for a non-incumbent candidate for Pennsylvania governor since 1946, and earned the most votes of a Pennsylvania gubernatorial candidate at just over three million. [7] [8] His large margin of victory was credited with helping down-ballot Democrats in concurrent elections. The victory also marked the first time since 1844 that the Democratic Party won three consecutive gubernatorial elections in Pennsylvania, and the first since 1950 that any party had done so.[ citation needed ] According to Ron Brownstein of CNN in 2023, Shapiro won independent voters by 31 percentage points, which contributed to Mastriano's defeat. [9] [10]

Democratic primary

Governor

Campaign

Pennsylvania Attorney General Josh Shapiro ran unopposed and was described as the Democratic Party's presumptive nominee by The Philadelphia Inquirer and the Pennsylvania Capital-Star early in the campaign, with the Capital-Star reporting that efforts to recruit a primary challenger to the left of Shapiro had failed. [11] [12]

Candidates

Nominee
Failed to qualify for ballot access
  • Tega Swann, Christian minister [19] [20]
Declined

Endorsements

Josh Shapiro
U.S. senators
State executives
U.S. representatives
State legislators
Local officials
Party officials
Labor unions
Organizations
Individuals

Results

Democratic primary (governor) [58]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Josh Shapiro Unopposed
Total votes1,227,151 100.0%

Lieutenant governor

Democratic nominee Austin Davis Gov. Wolf Discusses Vaccine Equity and Progress on Visit to McKeesport Vaccination Clinic - 51101482197 (cropped).jpg
Democratic nominee Austin Davis

Candidates

Nominee
Eliminated in primary
Declined
Withdrew

Endorsements

Austin Davis
State executives
State legislators
State representatives
Local officials
Labor unions
Newspapers and other media
Organizations
Brian Sims
Organizations

Results

Results by county
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Davis
40-50%
50-60%
60-70%
70-80%
80-90% 2022 Pennsylvania lieutenant gubernatorial Democratic primary election results map by county.svg
Results by county
  Davis
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
Democratic primary (lieutenant governor) [76]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Austin Davis 768,141 63.00%
Democratic Brian Sims 305,95925.09%
Democratic Ray Sosa145,22811.91%
Total votes1,219,328 100.0%

Republican primary

In the Republican primary, leading candidates included former congressman Lou Barletta, Montgomery County commissioner Joe Gale, political strategist Charlie Gerow, former U.S. Attorney William McSwain, state Senator Doug Mastriano, and former Delaware County councilmember Dave White.

Several key issues, such as school choice, natural gas exploration in PA, and tax reform, were early themes in the Pennsylvania GOP debates before the primary election, [77] while voting laws in the Commonwealth were a later topic of debate. [78]

Due to his support for overturning the results of the 2020 presidential election and his role in the January 6 U.S. Capitol attack, many Republicans expressed concern about Mastriano's ability to win the general election. As a result, the party encouraged other candidates to drop out to allow for an alternative to Mastriano to gain traction. [79]

On May 12, president pro tempore of the Pennsylvania Senate Jake Corman dropped out and endorsed Barletta. [80] On May 14, former president Donald Trump endorsed Mastriano. [81] [82] On May 12, The Philadelphia Inquirer reported that former U.S. Representative Melissa Hart would also drop out and endorse Barletta. [83] Mastriano won the primary with almost 44% of the vote, defeating his nearest competitor, Barletta, by over 23 points.

The New York Times reported in mid-June that Mastriano had been aided in the primary by the Pennsylvania Democratic Party and Shapiro's campaign with an ad equating him to Trump. Shapiro defended the move, saying the ad demonstrated the contrast between him and Mastriano as part of the general election campaign. The Times saw it as part of a nationwide strategy to gain easier opponents in November. [84]

Governor

Candidates

Nominee
Eliminated in primary
Withdrew
Declined

Debates and forums

2022 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election Republican primary debates
No.DateHostModeratorLinkParticipants
Key:
 P Participant  N Non-invitee 
Lou BarlettaJake CormanJoe GaleCharlie GerowMelissa HartDoug MastrianoWilliam McSwainDave White
1Apr 27, 2022 ABC 27 Dennis Owens
Lisa Sylvester
PNNNNPPP

Endorsements

Lou Barletta
Executive branch officials
U.S. senators
  • Rick Santorum, U.S. senator from Pennsylvania (1995–2007) and candidate for president in 2012 and 2016 (previously endorsed Corman) [122]
U.S. representatives
State officials
State legislators
Organizations
  • Oil and Gas Workers Association [130]
Jake Corman (withdrawn)
Executive branch officials
U.S. senators
  • Rick Santorum, former U.S. senator from Pennsylvania (1995–2007) and candidate for President in 2012 and 2016 (switched endorsement to Barletta after Corman withdrew) [122]
Charlie Gerow
U.S. representatives
Organizations
  • American Conservative Union [133]
Doug Mastriano
U.S. presidents
Executive branch officials
Local officials
Organizations
Individuals
William McSwain
U.S. senators
Party officials
Jason Richey (withdrawn)
Individuals
Dave White
Executive branch officials
State legislators
Declined to endorse
Organizations
Newspapers and other media

Polling

Graphical summary
Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Lou
Barletta
Jake
Corman
Doug
Mastriano
William
McSwain
Dave
White
Other
[a]
Margin
Real Clear Politics May 3–16, 2022May 17, 202220.3%2.7%34.3%15.3%9.8%17.6%Mastriano +14.0
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [b]
Margin
of error
Lou
Barletta
Jake
Corman
Scott
Martin
Doug
Mastriano
William
McSwain
Dave
White
OtherUndecided
The Trafalgar Group (R) May 14–16, 20221,195 (LV)± 2.9%25%37%17%10%6% [c] 5%
Emerson College May 14–15, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%22%2%34%12%9%7% [d] 15%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) May 12–15, 2022400 (LV)± 4.9%15%1%29%18%8%6% [e] 24%
May 13, 2022Hart withdraws from the race
May 12, 2022Corman withdraws from the race
The Trafalgar Group (R) May 6–8, 20221,080 (LV)± 3.0%18%5%28%14%15%9% [f] 11%
Fox News May 3–7, 20221,001 (LV)± 3.0%17%5%29%13%11%9% [g] 15%
Franklin & Marshall College April 20 – May 1, 2022325 (RV)± 6.9%11%1%20%12%8%11% [h] 34%
The Trafalgar Group (R) April 11–13, 20221,074 (LV)± 3.0%19%3%22%17%11%8% [i] 19%
Franklin & Marshall College March 30 – April 10, 2022317 (RV)± 6.6%10%2%15%12%5%14% [j] 40%
Eagle Consulting Group (R) April 7–9, 2022502 (LV)± 4.4%11%19%13%7%6%44%
Emerson College April 3–4, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%20%4%19%8%12%11% [k] 27%
Emerson College March 26–28, 2022372 (LV)± 5.0%12%2%16%6%6%8% [l] 49%
Fox News March 2–6, 2022517 (LV)± 4.0%19%6%3%18%11%14%2% [m] 25%
The Trafalgar Group (R) February 1–4, 20221,070 (LV)± 3.0%24%5%4%20%4%14%29%
Public Policy Polling (D) [A] November 9–10, 2021648 (LV)± 3.8%14%4%3%18%2%1%4% [n] 56%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) September 24–30, 2021313 (LV)± 5.6%27%6%0%6% [o] 60%
WPA Intelligence (R) [B] May 10–12, 2021826 (LV)± 3.4%16%19%17% [p] 49%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) February 16–24, 2021272 (LV)± 5.9%20%11%3%8% [q] 60%

Results

Results by county
Mastriano
30-40%
40-50%
50-60%
60-70%
70-80%
80-90%
Barletta
40-50%
50-60%
70-80%
McSwain
30-40%
White
50-60% 2022 Pennsylvania gubernatorial Republican primary election results map by county.svg
Results by county
  Mastriano
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  Barletta
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   70–80%
  McSwain
  •   30–40%
  White
  •   50–60%
Republican primary (governor) [58]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Doug Mastriano 591,240 43.81%
Republican Lou Barletta 273,25220.25%
Republican William McSwain 212,88615.78%
Republican Dave White129,0589.56%
Republican Melissa Hart (withdrawn) [r] 54,7524.06%
Republican Joe Gale27,9202.07%
Republican Jake Corman (withdrawn) [r] 26,0911.93%
Republican Charlie Gerow 17,9221.33%
Republican Nche Zama16,2381.20%
Total votes1,349,359 100.00%

Lieutenant governor

Candidates

Nominee
Eliminated in primary

Declined

  • Brandon Flood, former secretary of the Pennsylvania Board of Pardons (2019–2021) [159] (endorsed Coleman)

Endorsements

Teddy Daniels
State legislators
Jeff Coleman
U.S. senators
Individuals
  • Brandon Flood, former secretary of the Pennsylvania Board of Pardons (2019–2021) [159]
Russ Diamond
Organizations
  • Stand for Health Freedom [162]

Results

DelRosso
10-20%
20-30%
30-40%
40-50%
Saccone
20-30%
30-40%
Daniels
10-20%
20-30%
30-40%
50-60%
Schillinger
20-30%
40-50%
Coleman
20-30%
30-40%
40-50%
Diamond
60-70%
Brown
20-30%
40-50%
Frye
20-30%
50-60% 2022 Pennsylvania lieutenant gubernatorial Republican primary election results map by county.svg
  DelRosso
  •   10–20%
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  Saccone
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  Daniels
  •   10–20%
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   50–60%
  Schillinger
  •   20–30%
  •   40–50%
  Coleman
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  Diamond
  •   60–70%
  Brown
  •   20–30%
  •   40–50%
  Frye
  •   20–30%
  •   50–60%
Republican primary (lieutenant governor) [76]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Carrie DelRosso 318,970 25.59%
Republican Rick Saccone 195,77415.71%
Republican Teddy Daniels150,93512.11%
Republican Clarice Schillinger148,44211.91%
Republican Jeff Coleman 126,07210.11%
Republican James Jones113,9669.14%
Republican Russ Diamond 74,2655.96%
Republican John Brown59,2674.75%
Republican Chris Frye58,7524.71%
Total votes1,246,443 100.00%

Libertarian nomination

The Libertarian Party nominees qualified for the general election ballot on August 1. [163] [164] [165]

Governor

Nominee

  • Matt Hackenburg, aerospace computer engineer [166]

Eliminated in board vote

Withdrew

Lieutenant governor

Nominee

Withdrew

  • Nicole Shultz, auditor of Windsor Township, York County (2022–present) and treasurer of the Libertarian Party of Pennsylvania (2021–2022) (ran for Governor) [150] [168] [169] [167]

Green convention

The Green Party nominees qualified for the general election ballot on August 1. [163] [164] [165]

Governor

Nominee

Withdrew

Lieutenant governor

Nominee

Keystone nomination

Governor

Nominee

Withdrew

Lieutenant governor

Nominee

  • Nicole Shultz (Keystone nominee), auditor of Windsor Township, York County (2022–present) and treasurer of the Keystone Party of Pennsylvania (2022–present) (originally ran as a Libertarian for lieutenant governor and later governor) [175] [168] [179] [165]

General election

Campaign

Attorney General Josh Shapiro ran a progressive campaign emphasizing protecting abortion rights, voter rights, and raising the state's minimum wage to $15 an hour. On criminal justice issues, Shapiro promised to sign a bill abolishing the death penalty having previously supported it, but also faced criticism from some left-wing voters for adopting a "tough on crime" image. In addition, he has openly feuded with Philadelphia District Attorney Larry Krasner. [180]

State Senator Doug Mastriano positioned himself as a staunch ally of former president Donald Trump, promoting conspiracy theories about the 2020 election, defense of Confederate monuments, [181] arming school teachers with firearms, [182] and disobeying COVID-19 safety protocols. [183] Mastriano also drew accusations of antisemitism for using anti-semitic dogwhistles against Shapiro. [6] One of Mastriano's most vocal supporters was Andrew Torba, the CEO of far-right social media website Gab, a website on which the perpetrator of the Tree of Life Synagogue shooting posted before committing the massacre. Torba donated $500 to the Mastriano campaign, and Mastriano himself told the Gab founder in an interview, "Thank God for what you've done." [184]

No debate was held during the general election, as Shapiro and Mastriano were unable to come to an agreement on how to debate. [185] In addition, Mastriano did not release his first general election ads until October, while the more well-funded Shapiro had already spent $18.6 million in television broadcasting by that time. [186] These factors, combined with Mastriano's refusal to talk to major media outlets and decision to ban journalists from campaign rallies, severely limited his voter outreach. [187]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [188] Likely DSeptember 29, 2022
Inside Elections [189] Lean DOctober 7, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball [190] Likely DSeptember 28, 2022
Politico [191] Likely DOctober 25, 2022
RCP [192] Lean DNovember 2, 2022
Fox News [193] Likely DNovember 1, 2022
538 [194] Solid DOctober 28, 2022
Elections Daily [195] Likely DNovember 7, 2022

Endorsements

Josh Shapiro (D)
Executive branch officials
U.S. senators
State officials
U.S. representatives
State legislators
Local officials
Party officials
Labor unions
Organizations
Newspapers and other media
Individuals
Doug Mastriano (R)
U.S. presidents
Executive branch officials
State officials
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
State legislators
Local officials
Individuals
Organizations
Declined to endorse
Executive branch officials
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
State officials
State legislators
Organizations
Individuals

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of December 31, 2022
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Josh Shapiro (D)$67,981,264$54,967,428$403,274
Doug Mastriano (R)$7,055,316$7,081,556$1,018,238
Source: Commonwealth of Pennsylvania [318]

Polling

Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Josh
Shapiro (D)
Doug
Mastriano (R)
Other
[s]
Margin
Real Clear Politics October 24–31, 2022October 31, 202252.6%40.6%6.8%Shapiro +12.0%
FiveThirtyEight June 10 – October 31, 2022October 28, 202251.5%40.9%7.6%Shapiro +10.7%
Average52.1%40.8%7.2%Shapiro +11.4%
Graphical summary
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [b]
Margin
of error
Josh
Shapiro (D)
Doug
Mastriano (R)
OtherUndecided
Research Co. November 4–6, 2022450 (LV)± 4.6%53%41%2% [t] 4%
Targoz Market Research November 2–6, 2022631 (LV)± 3.8%52%46%3% [u]
InsiderAdvantage (R) November 3, 2022750 (LV)± 3.6%51%43%3% [v] 4%
The Trafalgar Group (R) November 1–3, 20221,097 (LV)± 2.9%50%45%2%3%
Remington Research Group (R) November 1–2, 20221,180 (LV)± 2.8%52%40%3% [w] 4%
Marist College October 31 – November 2, 20221,152 (RV)± 3.8%54%39%1% [x] 7%
1,021 (LV)± 4.0%54%40%5%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) October 28 – November 1, 2022700 (LV)± 3.7%52%38%1% [y] 9%
Emerson College October 28–31, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%50%41%5% [z] 5%
53%43%5% [aa]
Suffolk University October 27–30, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%52%40%1% [ab] 7%
Fox News October 26–30, 20221,005 (RV)± 3.0%53%37%4% [ac] 6%
Big Data Poll October 27–28, 20221,005 (LV)± 3.1%49%44%4% [ad] 4%
co/efficient (R) October 26–28, 20221,716 (LV)± 3.4%51%41%4% [ae] 4%
Muhlenberg College October 24–28, 2022460 (LV)± 6.0%54%40%2% [af] 4%
Wick Insights (R) October 26–27, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.2%49%43%2% [ag] 6%
Siena Research/NYT October 24–26, 2022620 (LV)± 4.4%53%40%<1% [ah] 7%
InsiderAdvantage (R) Archived October 27, 2022, at the Wayback Machine October 25, 2022750 (LV)± 3.6%50%42%4% [ai] 4%
YouGov/CBS News October 21–24, 20221,084 (LV)± 4.1%54%45%
Franklin & Marshall College Archived October 27, 2022, at the Wayback Machine October 14–23, 2022620 (RV)± 5.3%54%32%6% [aj] 10%
384 (LV)± 6.8%58%36%
Rasmussen Reports (R) October 19–20, 2022972 (LV)± 3.0%43%40%6% [ak] 10%
Echelon Insights October 18–20, 2022500 (LV)± 4.8%50%38%3% [al] 8%
InsiderAdvantage (R) October 19, 2022550 (LV)± 4.2%49%42%3% [am] 6%
CNN/SSRS October 13–17, 2022901 (RV)± 4.1%56%39%5% [an]
703 (LV)± 4.6%56%41%2% [ao]
Wick Insights October 8–14, 20221,013 (LV)± 3.1%49%46%2% [ap] 3%
Patriot PollingOctober 10–12, 2022857 (RV)50%45%5%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D) October 4–12, 20221,400 (LV)± 4.4%53%42%1% [aq] 4%
The Trafalgar Group (R) [C] October 8–11, 20221,078 (LV)± 2.9%53%44%1% [ar] 2%
Monmouth University September 29 – October 3, 2022610 (RV)± 4.8%54%38%8%
Suffolk University September 27–30, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%48%37%2% [as] 13%
Emerson College September 23–26, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%51%41%2% [at] 7%
Fox News September 19–25, 20221,008 (RV)± 3%51%40%9%
Franklin & Marshall College September 19–25, 2022517 (RV)± 5.6%51%37%12%
InsiderAdvantage (R) September 23–24, 2022550 (LV)± 4.2%52%37%4% [au] 7%
Marist College September 19–22, 20221,242 (RV)± 3.5%53%40%<1% [av] 6%
1,043 (LV)± 3.8%54%42%4%
The Phillips Academy Poll September 16–19, 2022759 (RV)± 3.6%46%43%12%
Muhlenberg College September 13–16, 2022420 (LV)± 6.0%53%42%1% [aw] 3%
The Trafalgar Group (R) September 13–15, 20221,078 (LV)± 2.9%47%45%4% [ax] 3%
Monmouth University September 8–12, 2022605 (RV)± 4.0%54%36%
YouGov/CBS News September 6–12, 20221,188 (LV)± 3.8%55%44%1%
RABA Research August 31 – September 3, 2022679 (LV)± 3.8%47%41%4% [ay] 9%
Survey Monkey (D) [D] August 31 – September 1, 20221,012 (RV)± 3.0%53%32%15%
616 (LV)± 3.0%56%35%9%
Emerson College August 22–23, 20221,034 (LV)± 3.0%47%44%3%6%
Franklin & Marshall College August 15–21, 2022522 (RV)± 5.3%48%36%4% [az] 12%
The Trafalgar Group (R) August 15–18, 20221,096 (LV)± 2.9%49%45%2% [ba] 5%
Public Opinion Strategies (R) August 7–10, 2022600 (RV)± 4.0%51%37%11%
Fox News July 22–26, 2022908 (RV)± 3.0%50%40%1%8%
Blueprint Polling (D) Archived July 26, 2022, at the Wayback Machine July 19–21, 2022712 (LV)± 3.7%51%39%10%
Beacon Research (D) [E] July 5–20, 20221,012 (RV)± 3.1%49%35%1%12%
609 (LV)± 4.0%52%39%1%7%
Global Strategy Group (D) [F] July 14–19, 20221,200 (LV)± 2.9%50%42%7%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D) June 12–19, 20221,382 (LV)± 4.4%49%46%5%
Cygnal (R) June 16–17, 2022535 (LV)± 4.2%48%45%7%
Suffolk University June 10–13, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%44%40%3% [bb] 13%
Hypothetical polling
Generic Democrat vs. generic Republican
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [b]
Margin
of error
Generic
Democrat
Generic
Republican
Undecided
Public Opinion Strategies (R) May 12–18, 2022600 (RV)± 4.6%47%45%8%

Results

2022 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election swing map by county.svg
2022 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election trend map by county.svg
2022 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election [319]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic 3,031,137 56.49% −1.28%
Republican 2,238,47741.71%+1.01%
Libertarian
  • Matt Hackenburg
  • Tim McMaster
51,6110.96%−0.02%
Green
  • Christina DiGiulio
  • Michael Bagdes-Canning
24,4360.46%−0.09%
Keystone
  • Joe Soloski
  • Nicole Shultz
20,5180.38%N/A
Total votes5,366,179 100.0% N/A
Turnout 60.53%
Registered electors 8,864,831
Democratic hold

By county

County [320] Josh Shapiro
Democratic Party
Doug Mastriano
Republican Party
Jonathan Hackenburg
Libertarian Party
Christina Digiulio
Green Party
Joseph Soloski
Keystone Party
MarginTotal
votes
##%#%#%#%#%#%
Adams 18,82140.51%26,81957.73%4671.01%1600.34%1920.41%-7,998-17.22%46,459
Allegheny 393,38668.68%169,91329.66%5,3540.93%2,3190.40%1,8410.32%223,47337.02%572,813
Armstrong 9,52333.46%18,41964.73%2650.93%880.31%1620.57%-8,896-31.27%28,457
Beaver 36,91750.39%34,77747.47%8111.11%3860.53%3710.51%2,1402.92%73,262
Bedford 4,72121.25%17,19877.40%1670.75%560.25%780.35%-12,477-56.15%22,220
Berks 78,75750.87%72,18546.63%1,9361.25%1,0960.71%8440.55%6,5724.24%154,818
Blair 17,71635.20%31,82363.22%4120.82%1990.40%1840.37%-14,107-28.02%50,334
Bradford 7,38931.47%15,52966.14%2791.19%1640.70%1180.50%-8,140-34.67%23,479
Bucks 185,33959.02%122,98239.16%2,9350.93%1,6940.54%1,0910.35%62,35719.86%314,041
Butler 40,06542.87%51,54655.15%1,1011.18%3670.39%3820.41%-11,481-12.28%93,461
Cambria 22,88540.66%32,38157.53%4890.87%2910.52%2350.42%-9,496-16.87%56,281
Cameron 63933.81%1,20063.49%261.38%30.16%221.16%-561-29.68%1,890
Carbon 10,74340.90%14,94356.90%3261.24%1510.57%1010.38%-4,200-16.00%26,264
Centre 35,65357.49%25,20140.64%6541.05%2090.34%3000.48%10,45216.85%62,017
Chester 160,79662.32%92,58535.88%2,7131.05%1,0930.42%8380.32%68,21126.44%258,025
Clarion 5,11433.19%10,01965.03%1541%570.37%630.41%-4,905-31.84%15,407
Clearfield 10,32632.87%20,52565.34%3161.01%1250.40%1190.38%-10,199-32.47%31,411
Clinton 5,29337.61%8,51260.48%1340.95%590.42%750.53%-3,219-22.87%14,073
Columbia 10,14841.08%13,95956.51%3721.51%1090.44%1150.47%-3,811-15.43%24,703
Crawford 12,60938.41%19,54159.52%3381.03%1660.51%1750.53%-6,932-21.11%32,829
Cumberland 61,31952.86%52,28045.07%1,3421.16%5130.44%5480.47%9,0397.79%116,002
Dauphin 68,58559.95%43,58038.10%1,1621.02%6040.53%4670.41%25,00521.85%114,398
Delaware 170,16267.83%76,88030.65%2,1020.84%1,1260.45%5850.23%93,28237.18%250,855
Elk 4,84335.41%8,59762.85%1210.88%610.45%560.41%-3,754-27.44%13,678
Erie 63,08159.74%40,43338.29%1,0370.98%5690.54%4790.45%22,64821.45%105,599
Fayette 20,12042.92%26,16555.82%3220.69%1370.29%1330.28%-6,045-12.90%56,877
Forest 82537.64%1,34061.13%120.55%60.27%90.41%-515-23.49%2,192
Franklin 21,61233.07%42,73165.39%5710.87%2100.32%2260.35%-21,119-32.32%65,350
Fulton 1,12817.94%5,09280.99%390.62%130.21%150.24%-3,964-63.05%6,287
Greene 5,14239.14%7,70658.65%1080.82%930.71%900.68%-2,564-19.51%13,139
Huntingdon 5,59730.34%12,57968.19%1450.79%600.33%670.36%-6,982-37.85%18,448
Indiana 13,03239.80%19,17958.58%2480.76%1480.45%1350.41%-6,147-18.78%32,742
Jefferson 5,03828.27%12,43369.77%2181.22%680.38%630.35%-7,395-41.5%17,820
Juniata 2,76128.27%6,85170.14%940.96%410.42%210.21%-4,090-41.87%9,768
Lackawanna 54,44261.28%32,69736.80%7740.87%5830.66%3470.39%21,74524.48%88,843
Lancaster 108,23348.26%112,04049.96%2,5301.13%7400.33%7250.32%-3,807-1.70%224,268
Lawrence 16,02344.15%19,61154.03%3230.89%1800.50%1570.43%-3,588-9.88%36,294
Lebanon 23,64641.88%31,73156.19%6011.06%2570.46%2310.41%-8,085-14.31%56,466
Lehigh 79,99158.67%53,46839.22%1,5911.17%7340.54%5500.40%26,52319.45%136,334
Luzerne 57,59849.63%56,32648.53%1,1000.95%6050.52%4350.37%1,2721.10%116,064
Lycoming 15,64333.80%29,75564.29%5231.13%1800.39%1840.40%-14,112-30.49%46,285
McKean 4,39229.85%10,08268.53%1190.81%550.37%640.44%-5,690-38.68%14,712
Mercer 18,28240.33%26,27357.96%4080.90%2160.48%1520.34%-7,991-17.63%45,331
Mifflin 5,11930.39%11,46068.02%1500.89%500.30%680.40%-6,341-37.63%16,847
Monroe 32,00954.41%25,60443.52%6501.10%3780.64%1860.32%6,40510.89%58,827
Montgomery 285,71269.18%121,28929.37%3,4630.84%1,3840.34%1,1680.28%163,88339.81%413,016
Montour 3,64046.33%4,03751.38%1061.35%430.55%310.39%-397-5.05%7,857
Northampton 72,26955.63%54,92842.28%1,4661.13%7110.55%5270.41%17,34113.35%129,901
Northumberland 12,05236.58%19,09457.95%4661.41%2820.86%1,0573.21%-7,042-21.37%32,951
Perry 6,91234.15%12,92863.87%2341.16%840.42%820.41%-6,016-29.72%20,240
Philadelphia 426,88585.68%65,29313.10%2,4920.50%2,3720.48%1,2180.24%361,59272.58%498,260
Pike 10,33941.14%14,37157.18%2100.84%1280.51%850.34%-4,032-16.04%25,133
Potter 1,51321.29%5,23573.68%771.08%1121.58%1682.36%-3,722-52.39%7,105
Schuylkill 21,20338.25%33,00859.54%6741.22%2880.52%2620.47%-11,805-21.29%55,435
Snyder 4,86731.69%10,21566.50%1661.08%570.37%550.36%-5,348-34.81%15,360
Somerset 9,47329.08%22,55969.25%2740.84%1390.43%1310.40%-13,086-40.17%32,576
Sullivan 1,02433.87%1,92363.61%331.09%270.89%160.53%-899-29.74%3,023
Susquehanna 5,76833.31%11,15364.41%1801.04%1100.64%1050.61%-5,385-31.10%17,316
Tioga 4,49426.98%11,84071.08%1701.02%840.50%700.42%-7,346-44.10%16,658
Union 6,89842.81%8,89755.22%1791.11%750.47%640.40%-1,999-12.41%16,113
Venango 7,77737.18%12,74160.91%2201.05%810.39%1000.48%-4,964-23.73%20,919
Warren 6,03237.55%9,70460.40%1641.02%770.48%880.55%-3,672-22.85%16,065
Washington 45,03048.10%47,05250.26%9060.97%2710.29%3580.38%-2,022-2.16%93,617
Wayne 8,46637.22%13,86860.98%2110.93%1150.51%830.36%-5,402-23.76%22,743
Westmoreland 77,15245.93%87,80452.27%1,6130.96%6770.40%7220.43%-10,652-6.34%167,968
Wyoming 4,51938.37%6,96659.15%1401.19%910.77%610.52%-2,447-20.78%11,777
York 83,64944.86%98,62252.89%2,6281.41%8090.43%7680.41%-14,973-8.03%186,476

By congressional district

Shapiro won 11 of 17 congressional districts, including two that elected Republicans. [321]

DistrictShapiroMastrianoRepresentative
1st 59%39% Brian Fitzpatrick
2nd 76%22% Brendan Boyle
3rd 92%6% Dwight Evans
4th 66%32% Madeleine Dean
5th 70%28% Mary Gay Scanlon
6th 61%37% Chrissy Houlahan
7th 55%43% Susan Wild
8th 54%44% Matt Cartwright
9th 38%59% Dan Meuser
10th 55%43% Scott Perry
11th 46%52% Lloyd Smucker
12th 68%30% Mike Doyle (117th Congress)
Summer Lee (118th Congress)
13th 34%64% John Joyce
14th 44%55% Guy Reschenthaler
15th 38%60% Glenn Thompson
16th 48%50% Mike Kelly
17th 62%36% Conor Lamb (117th Congress)
Chris Deluzio (118th Congress)

Analysis

Josh Shapiro defeated Doug Mastriano by 14.8%. While this marked a 2.73% Republican swing from 2018, it was still 13.18% larger than Joe Biden's win in the presidential race in Pennsylvania two years earlier in 2020, and 9.86% larger than Shapiro's reelection for Attorney General that same year. All counties in the Keystone State voted the exact same way they did in 2018, with Shapiro doing best in heavily populated Southeastern Pennsylvania, which is made up of Philadelphia and its suburbs, Berks County (Reading), the Lehigh Valley (Allentown, Bethlehem, and Easton), the Wyoming Valley (Scranton, Wilkes-Barre, and Hazleton), the Susquehanna Valley (Harrisburg and Carlisle), Erie County in the northwest corner, and finally, Greater Pittsburgh in the southwest.

Doug Mastriano, meanwhile, piled up large margins in Pennsylvania's rural counties, but also won some populous places located in the western part of the state, like Butler, Washington, and Westmoreland counties near Pittsburgh. However, Mastriano significantly underperformed President Donald Trump's margins in the 2020 Presidential election in some of those counties; Westmoreland County, for example, voted for Trump by 28 points in 2020, but only backed Mastriano by 6 points in 2022. A similar leftward shift happened in neighboring Washington County, with Shapiro only losing the county by 2 points despite Joe Biden losing the county by over 20 points 2 years earlier. Mastriano also carried Lancaster, including the counties contained either fully or partially within his State Senate district, namely Adams, Franklin and York. Except for Adams and Franklin counties, Lancaster and York were once again carried by single digits by the Republican gubernatorial candidate just like 2018, as Mastriano's extremist views likely turned off moderate independents and Republicans in these areas.[ citation needed ]

Southeastern Pennsylvania, a strong Democratic area during elections, shifted more Democratic. This region, with strongly Democratic Philadelphia, anchored by its suburbs, has become a Democratic stronghold in elections, winning all Delaware Valley counties. Southeastern Pennsylvania piled up large margins in its suburbs. Its electorate is highly educated, affluent, and diverse. In addition to the region's strong Democratic tilt, abortion rights were a significant campaign issue among voters. According to CNN polling data, [322] 62% of Pennsylvania voters believed abortion should be legal, and those voters broke for Shapiro by a landslide margin of 81%–18%. College-educated voters, who made up 41% of the electorate, also voted heavily for Shapiro by a 64%–35% margin. Shapiro won 92% of Black voters, 72% of Latino voters, and 50% of White voters. According to Ron Brownstein of CNN in 2023, Shapiro won independent voters by double-digit margins, which contributed to Mastriano's defeat. [323]

Voter demographics

Voter demographic data for 2022 was collected by CNN. The voter survey is based on exit polls completed by 2,657 voters in person as well as by phone. [322]

2022 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election voter demographics (CNN) [322]
Demographic subgroupShapiroMastriano % of
total vote
Ideology
Liberals 94425
Moderates 712841
Conservatives 138634
Party
Democrats 96337
Republicans 168340
Independents 643324
Gender
Men485049
Women633751
Marital status
Married524764
Unmarried653336
Gender by marital status
Married men495036
Married women554429
Unmarried men534314
Unmarried women732721
Race/ethnicity
White 504881
Black 9288
Latino 72258
White voters by gender
White men435541
White women584241
Age
18–24 years old72257
25–29 years old69315
30–39 years old643413
40–49 years old554411
50–64 years old514929
65 and older514734
2020 presidential vote
Biden 96348
Trump 158445
First time midterm election voter
Yes663012
No544588
Education
Never attended college 415924
Some college education593821
Associate degree 544414
Bachelor's degree 584123
Advanced degree722718
Education by race
White college graduates623735
White no college degree435647
Non-white college graduates76236
Non-white no college degree821712
Education by gender/race
White women with college degrees693017
White women without college degrees504924
White men with college degrees554418
White men without college degrees356323
Non-white801919
Issue regarded as most important
Crime 554211
Abortion 801937
Inflation 336628
Feelings about Roe v. Wade being overturned
Enthusiastic/satisfied148438
Dissatisfied/angry841559
Abortion should be
Legal811862
Illegal168334

See also

Notes

  1. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. 1 2 3 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. Gerow with 4%; Gale with 3%
  4. Gerow with 3%; Hart with 2%; Gale and Zama with 1%
  5. Gerow with 3%; Hart, Gale, and "Other" with 1%; Zama with 0%
  6. Hart with 4%, Gale with 3%, Gerow with 2%
  7. Hart with 4%; Gale with 2%; Gerow, Zama, and "Other" (volunteered response) with 1%
  8. "Someone else" with 5%; Hart and Zama with 2%; Gale and Gerow with 1%
  9. Hart with 4%, Gale and Zama with 2%, Gerow with 1%
  10. "Someone else" with 7%, Gale and Hart with 3%, Gerow with 1%, Zama with 0%
  11. Gale, Gerow, and Hart with 3%; Zama with 2%
  12. Gale and Hart with 3%; Gerow with 2%; Zama with 0%
  13. Zama and "Other" (volunteered response) with 1%
  14. Gale with 3%; Richley with 1%
  15. "None/other" with 4%; Gale and Richey with 1%; Ciarrocchi, Gerow, Laughlin, and Zama with 0%
  16. "Someone else" with 10%; "Other" with 7%
  17. Meuser with 3%, Cawley with 2%, "None/other" with 1%; Gale and Richey with 1%
  18. 1 2 Withdrew after deadline, remained on ballot
  19. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  20. "Some other candidate" with 2%
  21. Hackenburg (L) with 1%; "All others" with 2%
  22. Hackenburg (L) with 2%; "Someone else" with 1%
  23. Hackenburg (L) with 2%; DiGiulio (G) with 1%
  24. "Another party's candidate" with 1%
  25. "Other" with 1%; "Refuse" with <1%
  26. Hackenburg (L) with 2%; DiGiulio (G) with 2%; Soloski (K) with <1%; "Someone else" with 1%
  27. Hackenburg (L) with 2%; DiGiulio (G) with 2%; Soloski (K) with <1%; "Someone else" with 1%
  28. Hackenburg (L) with 1%; Soloski (K) with 1%; DiGuilio (G) with <1%
  29. "Other" with 2%; "Wouldn't vote" with 2%
  30. Hackenburg (L) with 2%, Soloski (K) with 1%, Digiulio (G) with 1%
  31. "Someone else" with 4%
  32. "Neither/Other" with 2%
  33. "someone else" with 2%
  34. Hackenburg (L) with <1%; Digiulio (G) with <1%; Soloski (K) with <1%
  35. Hackenburg (L) with 3%, "someone else" with 1%
  36. "Some other candidate" with 3%; Hackenburg (L) with 2%; "Not going to vote" with 1%
  37. "Some other candidate" with 6%
  38. DiGuilo (G), Hackenburg (L) and Soloski (K) with 1%
  39. Hackenburg (L) with 2%; "Someone else" with 1%
  40. "Neither" with 4%; "Other" with 1%
  41. "Neither" with 1%; "Other" with 1%
  42. "Someone else" with 2%
  43. "Other" with 1%
  44. Hackenburg (L) with 1%; "Other" with <1%
  45. DiGuilo (G) and Hackenburg (L) with 1%; Soloski (K) with <1%
  46. "Someone else" with 2%
  47. Hackenburg (L) with 3%; "Someone else" with 1%
  48. "Another party's candidate" with <1%
  49. "Neither/Other" with 1%
  50. Hackenburg (L) and "Other" with 2%
  51. "Someone else" with 4%
  52. Hackenburg (L) with 2%; DiGiulio (G) and "Some other candidate" with 1%; Soloski (K) with 0%
  53. Hackenburg (L) and "Other" with 1%
  54. DiGuilo (G) and Hackenburg (L) with 1%; Soloski (K) and "someone else" with <1%
Partisan clients
  1. Poll sponsored by the Democratic Governors Association
  2. Poll sponsored by Club for Growth Action
  3. This poll was sponsored by The Daily Wire .
  4. This poll was sponsored by Center Street PAC, which opposes Mastriano.
  5. This poll was sponsored by the Environmental Voter Project.
  6. This poll was sponsored by EDF Action and NRDC Action Fund.

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Official campaign websites for gubernatorial candidates
Official campaign websites for lieutenant gubernatorial candidates