2022 Kansas gubernatorial election

Last updated

2022 Kansas gubernatorial election
Flag of Kansas.svg
  2018 November 8, 2022 2026  
Turnout47.9% Decrease2.svg [1]
  Laura Kelly official photo.jpg DOJ Elder Fraud Press Conference (cropped).jpg
Nominee Laura Kelly Derek Schmidt
Party Democratic Republican
Running mate David Toland Katie Sawyer
Popular vote499,849477,591
Percentage49.54%47.33%

2022 Kansas gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
2022 Kansas Gubernatorial election by congressional district.svg
KS Governor 2022.svg
Kelly:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Schmidt:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Pyle:     60–70%     >90%
Tie:     30–40%     40–50%     50%     No votes

Governor before election

Laura Kelly
Democratic

Elected Governor

Laura Kelly
Democratic

The 2022 Kansas gubernatorial election took place on November 8, 2022, to elect the governor of Kansas, with primary elections taking place on August 2, 2022. [2] Governor Laura Kelly ran for re-election to a second term, facing Republican State Attorney General Derek Schmidt in the general election.

Contents

This was the only Democratic-held governorship up for election in 2022 in a state Donald Trump won in the 2020 presidential election, and the race was expected to be one of the most competitive gubernatorial races in the nation. Some analysts and Kansas Republican Party officials had also predicted that Dennis Pyle, who was on the ballot as an independent, would have a spoiler effect benefiting Kelly. [3] [4] This was the first gubernatorial election in Kansas since 1986 in which the winner was from the same party as the incumbent president. [5]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominated

  • Laura Kelly, incumbent governor (2019–present) [6]
    • Running mate: David Toland, incumbent lieutenant governor (2021–present) and Secretary of Commerce (2019–present) [6]

Eliminated in primary

  • Richard Karnowski, accountant [7]
    • Running mate: Barry Franco [7]

Endorsements

Laura Kelly
State officials
State legislators
Organization

Results

Results by county:
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Kelly
70-80%
80-90%
90-100% 2022 Kansas gubernatorial Democratic primary.svg
Results by county:
  Kelly
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  •   90–100%
Democratic primary results [12]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic
270,968 93.84
Democratic
  • Richard Karnowski
  • Barry Franco
17,8026.16
Total votes288,770 100

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Derek Schmidt
U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
State officials
Organizations
Jeff Colyer (withdrew)
U.S. representative

Polling

Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Jeff
Colyer
Ron
Ryckman Jr.
Derek
Schmidt
Undecided
Cygnal (R) [upper-alpha 1] March 3–4, 2021510 (LV)± 4.3%19%5%28%49%

Results

Results by county:
Schmidt
70-80%
80-90%
90-100% 2022 Kansas gubernatorial Republican primary.svg
Results by county:
  Schmidt
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  •   90–100%
Republican primary results [12]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican
373,524 80.60
Republican
  • Arlyn Briggs
  • Lance Berland
89,89819.40
Total votes463,422 100

Independent

Candidates

Declared

General election

Campaign

Reporters noted the lack of attention towards abortion as an issue in the campaign by both major candidates, despite the defeat of an abortion amendment in August which was widely seen as a prominent victory for the pro-choice movement. [36] [37] In televised debates, Schmidt said that he respected the referendum results and accused Kelly of opposing existing abortion restrictions. Kelly denied the accusation, saying that she had stayed consistent on the subject, and further adding that she believed in "bodily autonomy" for women. [38] When pressed on whether they would support retaining all justices in the state Supreme Court who ruled abortion as a fundamental constitutional right in 2019 and were up on the ballot, Kelly said that she would, while Schmidt said he would vote to retain some and not others. [39]

Instead, both candidates focused more on "kitchen-table" issues such as the economy and education, [37] where polls showed that the former of which was the most important concern among voters. [36] [40] Kelly's campaign tied Schmidt with former governor Sam Brownback and his Kansas experiment, highlighting Schmidt's defense of lawsuits regarding budget cuts to public education as the attorney general. [41] In the contrary, Schmidt's campaign tied Kelly with President Joe Biden by focusing on national issues such as the increase in inflation and gas prices, portraying them as "big-spending liberals". [39] Other issues include criminal justice [42] [43] and transgender people in sports. [44] [45]

Aside from state Supreme Court justice retention elections and other statewide elections, the election was also held on the same ballot as two referendums for proposed constitutional amendments. Question 1 would authorize the state legislature to veto any rules and regulations implemented by Kansas's executive branch with a simple majority. [46] The proposal was spearheaded by Schmidt in 2021 in response to Governor Kelly's pandemic-related measures to close schools temporarily and he made COVID-19 lockdowns and mandates as a focal point in his platform. [47] Kelly's campaign countered that the amendment would be a "power grab" that could create further gridlock in the state's legislative process. [48] [49] Question 2 would require most sheriffs to be elected directly by voters and that they could only be removed by a recall election or a challenge by the state attorney general. [50] In a press release, Schmidt said that he would campaign for the amendment, arguing that electing sheriffs would make them "uniquely accountable to the people". [51] Critics pointed out that the amendment could create abuse of power as the authority to investigate the sheriff would be stripped from district attorneys in every county and the attorney general could "play favorites" into which sheriff to investigate. [47] In the end, Question 1 failed narrowly by a one-point margin, while Question 2 passed with 62% of the vote. [52]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [53] TossupJuly 26, 2022
Inside Elections [54] TossupJuly 22, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball [55] Lean R (flip)November 7, 2022
Politico [56] TossupAugust 12, 2022
RCP [57] TossupAugust 3, 2022
Fox News [58] TossupOctober 25, 2022
538 [59] Lean DSeptember 13, 2022
Elections Daily [60] Lean DNovember 7, 2022

Endorsements

Laura Kelly (D)
Federal officials
State officials
State legislators
Organizations
Newspapers
Derek Schmidt (R)
U.S. Executive Branch officials
Federal legislators
State officials
Organizations

Polling

Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Laura
Kelly (D)
Derek
Schmidt (R)
Other
[lower-alpha 2]
Margin
FiveThirtyEight August 10 – October 29, 2022November 2, 202248.6%43.5%7.9%Kelly +5.1
Graphical summary
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Laura
Kelly (D)
Derek
Schmidt (R)
Dennis
Pyle (I)
OtherUndecided
Emerson College October 27–29, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%46%43%5%2% [lower-alpha 3] 4%
49%44%5%2% [lower-alpha 4]
Jayhawk Consulting (D) [upper-alpha 2] October 10–12, 2022500 (LV)38%37%7%18%
Emerson College September 15–18, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%45%43%3%1% [lower-alpha 5] 8%
Echelon Insights [upper-alpha 3] August 31 – September 7, 2022392 (LV)± 7.5%53%41%5%
Battleground Connect (R) [upper-alpha 4] August 8–10, 20221,074 (LV)± 3.0%45%48%2%5%
WPA Intelligence (R) [upper-alpha 5] April 26–27, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%43%47%10%
Clarity Campaign Labs (D) [upper-alpha 6] September 13–15, 2021810 (LV)± 3.5%47%44%9%
Remington Research Group (R) September 7–9, 20211,000 (LV)± 3.0%40%44%16%

Debates and forums

2022 Kansas gubernatorial debates and forums
No.DateHostModeratorLocationLink Republican Democratic Libertarian Independent
 P Participant   A Absent   N Non-invitee   I Invitee

 W  Withdrawn

Derek Schmidt Laura Kelly Seth Cordell Dennis Pyle
1 [77] September 7, 2022 Kansas Chamber of Commerce Olathe [lower-alpha 6] PPNN
2 [79] September 10, 2022 WIBW-FM Greg Akagi Hutchinson Youtube PPNN
3 [80] October 5, 2022 Kansas City PBS/
Johnson County Bar Association
Nick Haines Overland Park Youtube PPNN

Results and analysis

2022 Kansas gubernatorial election swing map by county.svg
2022 Kansas gubernatorial election trend map by county.svg
2022 Kansas gubernatorial election [52]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic
499,849 49.54% +1.53%
Republican
477,59147.33%+4.35%
Independent
20,4522.03%N/A
Libertarian
  • Seth Cordell
  • Evan Laudick-Gains
11,1061.10%−0.80%
Total votes1,008,998 100.0%
Turnout 47.94%
Democratic hold

Laura Kelly won the election by a margin of 2.2 percentage points over Derek Schmidt, similar to the percentage of votes that independent Dennis Pyle received. Kansas Republican Party Chair Mike Kuckelman pointed to this as evidence that Pyle was somewhat responsible for Schmidt's defeat. However, Pyle insisted that "Kansas needed a strong conservative candidate" and instead highlighted Schmidt's underperformance compared to other Republican candidates in Kansas. [4]

Kelly's personal popularity was also a factor in her victory, where a majority of voters approved of Kelly's job performance, while only a third did so for President Joe Biden. [81] [82] Her win was also propelled by Democratic candidates' increased strength in suburban areas, such as Johnson County, in spite of Schmidt's increased vote share from 2018 in the Republican strongholds of rural Kansas. [83] Kelly also won Sedgwick County, home of Wichita, by 2.9%, [84] receiving 1.8% more of the vote than in the 2018 Kansas gubernatorial election. [85]

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Radar chart contrasting Laura Kelly's 2022 performance with Vote No in 2022 Kansas abortion referendum Kelly 2022 vote no radar chart.png
Radar chart contrasting Laura Kelly's 2022 performance with Vote No in 2022 Kansas abortion referendum

By congressional district

Kelly won 2 of 4 congressional districts, including one that elected a Republican. [90]

DistrictKellySchmidtOtherRepresentative
1st 44%52%4% Tracey Mann
2nd 49%48%3% Jake LaTurner
3rd 57%40%3% Sharice Davids
4th 46%51%3% Ron Estes

Exit polls

Kelly was reelected on November 8, 2022, defeating Kansas Attorney General Derek Schmidt, 49.2% to 47.7%.

According to Fox News's voter analysis of the 2022 race, [91] Kelly won women voters (51% Kelly, 45% Schmidt), voters 18-29 (51% Kelly, 43% Schmidt), millennials (55%, 39%), Gen X (50%, 47%), college-educated voters (57%, 40%), and Latino/Hispanic voters (58%).

Notably, Kelly lost the Generation Z vote by four points (45%), placing her 18 points behind the national average for Gen Z.

Kelly lost voters who were concerned about inflation by four points (46%). She lost voters who listed groceries and food as their most important inflation concern by one point, possibly due to her support for eliminating or reducing sales taxes on groceries in Kansas. [92] [93] 69% of voters listed abortion as an important factor in their vote, and Kelly won this group by 24 points (60%, 36%), closely mirroring the results of the 2022 Kansas abortion referendum. She won voters who listed "the future of democracy in this country" as an important factor in their vote (88% of voters) by seven points (52%).

See also

Notes

  1. 1 2 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  3. Cordell (L) with 1%; "Someone else" with 1%
  4. Cordell (L) with 1%; "Someone else" with 1%
  5. "Someone else" with 1%
  6. Recording not made public [78]
Partisan clients
  1. This poll was sponsored by Our Way of Life PAC
  2. This poll was sponsored by Patrick Schmidt's campaign, the Democratic nominee for Kansas's 2nd congressional district .
  3. This poll was sponsored by NetChoice
  4. This poll was sponsored by the John Brown Freedom Fund
  5. This poll was sponsored by Kris Kobach's campaign for Attorney General
  6. This poll was sponsored by EMILY's List, which supports Kelly

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Kris Kobach</span> American lawyer and politician (born 1966)

Kris William Kobach is an American lawyer and politician who has served as the attorney general of Kansas since 2023. He previously served as the 31st secretary of state of Kansas from 2011 to 2019. A former chairman of the Kansas Republican Party, Kobach rose to national prominence over his support for immigration controls, including involvement in the implementation of high-profile anti-illegal immigration ordinances in various American cities. Kobach is also known for his calls for stronger voter ID laws in the United States, reinstating the National Security Entry-Exit Registration System, and his advocacy for anti-abortion legislation. He has made claims about the extent of election fraud in the United States that some studies and media have said are unsubstantiated.

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Derek Larkin Schmidt is an American lawyer and politician who served as the Kansas Attorney General from 2011 to 2023. A Republican, Schmidt was first elected to office serving in the Kansas Senate, where he represented the 15th district from 2001 to 2011, and served as Agriculture Committee chairman and Senate majority leader. Schmidt became the state attorney general in 2011, after he defeated incumbent Democrat Stephen Six.

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Laura Jeanne Kelly is an American politician serving since 2019 as the 48th governor of Kansas. A member of the Democratic Party, she represented the 18th district in the Kansas Senate from 2005 to 2019. Kelly was elected governor in 2018, defeating Republican nominee Kris Kobach. She was reelected in 2022, narrowly defeating Republican nominee Derek Schmidt.

Dennis D. Pyle is an independent member of the Kansas Senate, representing the 1st district since 2005. He ran for governor of Kansas in the 2022 election.

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