2022 United States Senate election in Arkansas

Last updated

2022 United States Senate election in Arkansas
Flag of Arkansas.svg
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Turnout50.81% Decrease2.svg
  Senator John Boozman Official Portrait (115th Congress) (cropped).jpg No image.svg
Nominee John Boozman Natalie James
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote592,437280,187
Percentage65.73%31.09%
2022 United States Senate election in Arkansas results map by county.svg
2022 US Senate Election in Arkansas by Congressional District.svg
Boozman:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%
James:     50–60%
U.S. senator before election

John Boozman
Republican

Elected U.S. senator

John Boozman
Republican

The 2022 United States Senate election in Arkansas was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member to the United States Senate to represent the state of Arkansas. Incumbent Republican Senator John Boozman ran for a third term. [1] He won the May 24, 2022 Republican primary with 58.03% of the vote and the general election with 65.73% of the vote. [2]

Contents

This was the best performance for a Republican senator in the state's history, and was the first time for either U.S. Senate seat in Arkansas that Republicans won three consecutive elections.

Republican primary

Incumbent senator John Boozman ran with the endorsement of former President Donald Trump. However, he attracted multiple opponents from the right who questioned his loyalty to Trump, attacking him for refusing to object to the results of the 2020 United States presidential election. [3] Despite it being his first time running for office, former NFL football player Jake Bequette and his supporting groups raised over $2.6 million. [4] Boozman ultimately won with 58% of the vote, easily avoiding a runoff.

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrew

  • Michael Deel, corporate analyst [8]

Endorsements

Jake Bequette

U.S. Representatives

Individuals

  • Stuart Scheller, former lt. colonel [16]

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of May 4, 2022
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
John Boozman (R)$5,515,449$4,930,354$1,580,776
Jake Bequette (R)$1,262,746$875,103$375,720
Source: Federal Election Commission [17]

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Jake
Bequette		John
Boozman		Heath
Loftis		Jan
Morgan		Undecided
Hendrix College [18] May 2, 2022802 (LV)± 4.3%19%45%2%17%18%

Results

Results by county: .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} Boozman 40-50% 50-60% 60-70% 70-80% 2022 United States Senate Republican primary election in Arkansas results map by county.svg
Results by county:
  Boozman
  •   40-50%
  •   50-60%
  •   60-70%
  •   70-80%
Republican primary results [19]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican John Boozman (incumbent) 201,677 58.03%
Republican Jake Bequette 71,80920.66%
Republican Jan Morgan65,95818.98%
Republican Heath Loftis8,1122.33%
Total votes347,556 100.0%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

  • Natalie James, realtor [20]

Eliminated in primary

  • Jack Foster, former Pine Bluff city alderman [21]
  • Dan Whitfield, blue collar worker and independent candidate for U.S. Senate in 2020 [22]

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Jack
Foster		Natalie
James		Dan
Whitfield		Undecided
Hendrix College [18] May 2, 2022597 (LV)± 5.0%5%17%15%63%

Results

Results by county: James 30-40% 40-50% 50-60% 60-70% James/Whitfield tie 40-50% Whitfield 30-40% 40-50% 50-60% Foster 30-40% 50-60% Arkansas Senate Democratic primary, 2022.svg
Results by county:
  James
  •   30-40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  James/Whitfield tie
  •   40–50%
  Whitfield
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  Foster
  •   30–40%
  •   50–60%
Democratic primary results [19]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Natalie James 49,722 54.09%
Democratic Dan Whitfield28,31930.80%
Democratic Jack Foster13,89115.11%
Total votes91,932 100.0%

Libertarian convention

Candidates

Nominated at convention

  • Kenneth Cates, firefighter [23]

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [24] Solid RMarch 4, 2022
Inside Elections [25] Solid RApril 1, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball [26] Safe RMarch 1, 2022
Politico [27] Solid RApril 1, 2022
RCP [28] Safe RFebruary 24, 2022
Fox News [29] Solid RMay 12, 2022
DDHQ [30] Solid RJuly 20, 2022
538 [31] Solid RJune 30, 2022
The Economist [32] Safe RSeptember 7, 2022

Endorsements

John Boozman (R)

U.S. Executive Branch officials

U.S. Senators

Organizations

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		John
Boozman (R)		Natalie
James (D)		OtherUndecided
Hendrix College [36] September 12, 2022835 (LV)± 3.8%44%31%5% [lower-alpha 2] 21%
Echelon Insights [37] August 31 – September 7, 2022382 (RV)± 7.7%56%32%–12%

Results

2022 United States Senate election in Arkansas [38]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican John Boozman (incumbent) 592,437 65.73% +5.96%
Democratic Natalie James280,18731.09%−5.08%
Libertarian Kenneth Cates28,6823.18%−0.78%
Total votes901,306 100.0% N/A
Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Boozman won all 4 congressional districts. [39]

DistrictBoozmanJamesRepresentative
1st 72%25% Rick Crawford
2nd 59%38% French Hill
3rd 63%33% Steve Womack
4th 70%27% Bruce Westerman

See also

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ↑ Cates with 5%

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References

  1. 1 2 "Senator Boozman seeks re-election in 2022". Southwest Times Record. March 15, 2021. Retrieved March 17, 2021.
  2. ↑ "AP PROJECTS: Republican John Boozman wins reelection to U.S. Senate from Arkansas". ky3. November 9, 2022. Retrieved November 9, 2022.
  3. ↑ "Boozman blasted for private remarks about Trump". April 5, 2022.
  4. ↑ "Senate Candidate Jake Bequette and Supporting Groups Raise over $2.6 Million to Date".
  5. ↑ "Former NFL player, Iraq war veteran Jake Bequette challenges Arkansas Sen. Boozman". Fox News. July 12, 2021. Retrieved July 12, 2021.
  6. ↑ "Another challenger to John Boozman from the right". Arkansas Times. March 24, 2021. Retrieved April 9, 2021.
  7. ↑ "Former gubernatorial candidate Jan Morgan launches U.S. Senate bid". Arkansas Democrat Gazette. March 17, 2021. Retrieved March 18, 2021.
  8. ↑ Staff Reports. "Young Republican Michael Deel makes bid for U.S. Senate". Southwest Times Record. Retrieved May 10, 2021.
  9. 1 2 3 4 Frank E. Lockwood (March 18, 2021). "Gun-rights activist Jan Morgan kicks off Senate run". Northwest Arkansas Democrat Gazette.
  10. 1 2 "Donald Trump endorses Sen. John Boozman for reelection". FoxNews. March 8, 2021. Retrieved March 8, 2021.
  11. 1 2 Raju, Manu; Rogers, Alex (March 12, 2021). "McConnell quietly courts Senate primary candidates 'who can win' regardless of Trump ties". CNN . Archived from the original on August 24, 2021.
  12. ↑ "Citizens for Responsible Energy Solutions Announces Second Round of Congressional Endorsements for the 2022 Election Cycle". cresenergy.com. Citizens for Responsible Energy Solutions. May 4, 2022. Archived from the original on August 21, 2022. Retrieved June 7, 2022.
  13. 1 2 "John Boozman Endorsements".
  14. 1 2 "Endorsed Candidates". proisraelamerica.org. Archived from the original on December 20, 2021. Retrieved January 21, 2022.
  15. 1 2 "Republican congressmen endorse Sen. Boozman's primary opponent". January 18, 2022.
  16. ↑ https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=915738115796020 [ user-generated source ]
  17. ↑ "2022 Election United States Senate - Arkansas". Federal Election Commission.
  18. 1 2 Hendrix College
  19. 1 2 "2022 Preferential Primary and Nonpartisan Judicial General Election".
  20. ↑ Staff, A. M. P. (June 14, 2021). "Democrat Natalie James Announces for U.S. Senate". AMP. Retrieved June 15, 2021.
  21. ↑ "Foster to run for US senate". Arkansas Democratic Gazette. April 10, 2021. Retrieved April 10, 2021.
  22. ↑ "Dan Whitfield to run against Boozman for US Senate seat in 2022". KFSM. January 13, 2021. Retrieved January 18, 2021.
  23. ↑ "Libertarians nominate more than 50, including Harrington for governor". Talk Business & Politics. February 21, 2022.
  24. ↑ "2022 Senate Race ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 14, 2021.
  25. ↑ "Senate ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved January 18, 2021.
  26. ↑ "2022 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved January 28, 2021.
  27. ↑ "Arkansas Senate Race 2022". Politico. April 1, 2022.
  28. ↑ "Battle for the Senate 2022". RCP. January 10, 2022.
  29. ↑ "2022 Election Forecast". Fox News. May 12, 2022. Retrieved May 12, 2022.
  30. ↑ "2022 Election Forecast". DDHQ. July 20, 2022. Retrieved July 20, 2022.
  31. ↑ "2022 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. June 30, 2022. Retrieved June 30, 2022.
  32. ↑ "Economist's 2022 Senate forecast". The Economist. September 7, 2022. Retrieved September 7, 2022.
  33. ↑ "Natalie James Earns LCV Action Fund Endorsement to Fight for Arkansas Communities in the Senate". October 19, 2022.
  34. ↑ "Endorsed Candidates". National Women's Political Caucus. Retrieved November 2, 2022.
  35. ↑ "2022 Candidates for Common Good". Vote Common Good. Retrieved November 3, 2022.
  36. ↑ Hendrix College
  37. ↑ Echelon Insights
  38. ↑ "2022 General Election and Nonpartisan Judicial Runoff Election".
  39. ↑ Results. docs.google.com (Report).

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