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Turnout | 56.7% | ||||||||||||||||
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Johnson: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Barnes: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% 50% No data | |||||||||||||||||
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Elections in Wisconsin |
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The 2022 United States Senate election in Wisconsin was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate from Wisconsin. The party primaries were held on August 9, 2022. Incumbent Republican Senator Ron Johnson won election to a third term, defeating Democratic Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes [1] by 26,718 votes—a one-point margin of victory.
In 2016, Johnson had pledged to serve only two terms in the Senate. He reversed this decision in 2022. [2] The race was one of the most competitive of the cycle, and it followed considerable Democratic success in recent statewide elections. In 2018, Democrats won every statewide contest on the ballot, including the election for the state's other Senate seat. In 2020, Democrat Joe Biden narrowly carried the state in the presidential election. [3]
Barnes led in most polls during the summer of 2022. In the final weeks prior to the election, Johnson took a lead of more than three points in the polling average. Though Johnson ultimately prevailed, this election was the closest of his three Senate victories. This was the first Senate election in Wisconsin since 1998 in which the winning candidate was of a different party than the winner of the concurrent gubernatorial election.
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Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Ron Johnson (incumbent) | 563,871 | 83.7 | |
Republican | David Schroeder | 109,917 | 16.3 | |
Total votes | 673,788 | 100.0 |
Candidate | Unitemized (<$200) individual contributions | Itemized (>$200) individual contributions | Self funding | Coverage ending |
---|---|---|---|---|
Mandela Barnes | $2,668,973.10 | $3,305,480.72 | $0.00 | Coverage ending: 06/30/2022 [47] |
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Graphical summary
Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. Updates on reimplementing the Graph extension, which will be known as the Chart extension, can be found on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [a] | Margin of error | Mandela Barnes | Sarah Godlewski | Alex Lasry | Tom Nelson | Other | Undecided | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Godlewski withdraws from the race and endorses Barnes | |||||||||||||||
Lasry withdraws from the race and endorses Barnes | |||||||||||||||
Nelson withdraws from the race and endorses Barnes | |||||||||||||||
Impact Research (D) [133] [A] | July 12–17, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 39% | 12% | 25% | 5% | – | 18% | ||||||
Change Research (D) [134] [B] | July 1–7, 2022 | 560 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 40% | 12% | 16% | 6% | 1% [b] | 22% | ||||||
Marquette University [135] | June 14–20, 2022 | 381 (LV) | ± 6.2% | 25% | 9% | 21% | 7% | 1% [c] | 36% | ||||||
Normington Petts (D) [136] [C] | May 18–22, 2022 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 34% | 18% | 31% | 5% | – | 12% | ||||||
Marquette University [137] | April 19–24, 2022 | 311 (LV) | ± 6.6% | 19% | 7% | 16% | 5% | 2% [d] | 49% | ||||||
Impact Research (D) [138] [A] | March 16–23, 2022 | 449 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 38% | 9% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 26% | ||||||
Normington Petts (D) [139] [C] | February 23–27, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 35% | 7% | 27% | 7% | – | 24% | ||||||
Marquette University [140] | February 22–27, 2022 | 362 (LV) | ± 5.7% | 23% | 3% | 13% | 5% | 5% [e] | 49% | ||||||
Impact Research (D) [141] [A] | December 8–16, 2021 | 842 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 40% | 10% | 11% | 8% | 3% | 29% | ||||||
Data for Progress (D) [142] [D] | November 11–15, 2021 | 524 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 39% | 5% | 16% | 6% | 5% [f] | 29% | ||||||
Normington Petts (D) [143] [C] | November 2021 | – (LV) | – | 37% | 5% | 15% | 7% | – | 36% | ||||||
Clarity Campaign Labs (D) [144] [A] | August 28–30, 2021 | 698 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 37% | 7% | 5% | 8% | 3% [g] | 38% | ||||||
Normington Petts (D) [145] [C] | August 2021 | – (LV) | – | 43% | 5% | 4% | 7% | – | 41% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Mandela Barnes | 390,279 | 77.8 | |
Democratic | Alex Lasry (withdrawn) | 44,609 | 8.9 | |
Democratic | Sarah Godlewski (withdrawn) | 40,555 | 8.1 | |
Democratic | Tom Nelson (withdrawn) | 10,995 | 2.2 | |
Democratic | Steven Olikara | 5,619 | 1.1 | |
Democratic | Darrell Williams | 3,646 | 0.7 | |
Democratic | Kou Lee | 3,434 | 0.7 | |
Democratic | Peter Peckarsky | 2,446 | 0.5 | |
Total votes | 501,583 | 100.0 |
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report [146] | Lean R | November 4, 2022 |
Inside Elections [147] | Tilt R | April 1, 2022 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball [148] | Lean R | March 1, 2022 |
Politico [149] | Tossup | April 1, 2022 |
RCP [150] | Tossup | January 10, 2022 |
Fox News [151] | Lean R | May 12, 2022 |
DDHQ [152] | Likely R | August 17, 2022 |
538 [153] | Likely R | October 20, 2022 |
The Economist [154] | Likely R | November 1, 2022 |
No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Republican | Democratic |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Key: P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee W Withdrawn | ||||||
Ron Johnson | Mandela Barnes | |||||
1 | Oct. 7, 2022 | Wisconsin Broadcasters Association | Jill Geisler | [155] | P | P |
2 | Oct. 13, 2022 | Marquette University | Charles Benson Shannon Sims | [156] | P | P |
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Aggregate polls
Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Ron Johnson (R) | Mandela Barnes (D) | Undecided [h] | Margin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RealClearPolitics [191] | October 24 – November 5, 2022 | November 8, 2022 | 50.2% | 46.6% | 3.2% | Johnson +3.6 |
FiveThirtyEight [192] | August 15 – November 8, 2022 | November 8, 2022 | 50.4% | 47.0% | 2.6% | Johnson +3.4 |
270toWin [193] | November 3–7, 2022 | November 7, 2022 | 50.2% | 46.6% | 3.2% | Johnson +3.6 |
Average | 50.3% | 46.7% | 3.0% | Johnson +3.6 |
Graphical summary
Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. Updates on reimplementing the Graph extension, which will be known as the Chart extension, can be found on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [a] | Margin of error | Ron Johnson (R) | Mandela Barnes (D) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Civiqs [194] | November 4–7, 2022 | 739 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 50% | 49% | – | 1% |
Research Co. [195] | November 4–6, 2022 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 51% | 45% | – | 4% |
Data for Progress (D) [196] | November 2–5, 2022 | 1,504 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 53% | 47% | – | – |
The Trafalgar Group (R) [197] | November 2–4, 2022 | 1,095 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 50% | 47% | – | 3% |
Marquette University [198] | October 24 – November 1, 2022 | 802 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 48% | 45% | 5% [i] | 1% |
679 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 50% | 48% | 1% [j] | 1% | ||
Clarity Campaign Labs (D) [199] [A] | October 27–31, 2022 | 888 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 46% | 48% | – | 6% |
Siena College [200] | October 27–31, 2022 | 655 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 47% | 45% | 2% [k] | 6% |
Fox News [201] | October 26–30, 2022 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 45% | 3% [l] | 5% |
Wick Insights [202] | October 26–30, 2022 | 1,089 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 50% | 46% | 2% [m] | 2% |
Emerson College [203] | October 27–29, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 46% | 2% [m] | 3% |
51% | 46% | 3% [n] | – | ||||
Patriot Polling [204] | October 20–23, 2022 | 801 (RV) | – | 52% | 43% | – | 5% |
Data for Progress (D) [205] | October 14–22, 2022 | 1,376 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 51% | 46% | – | 2% |
CNN/SSRS [206] | October 13–17, 2022 | 905 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 45% | 48% | 5% [o] | 1% |
714 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 50% | 49% | 1% [p] | – | ||
Clarity Campaign Labs (D) [207] [A] | October 7–11, 2022 | 874 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 47% | 48% | – | 5% |
Marquette University [208] | October 3–9, 2022 | 801 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 47% | 47% | 5% [q] | 2% |
652 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 52% | 46% | 2% [r] | 1% | ||
YouGov/CBS News [209] | October 3–7, 2022 | 1,138 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 50% | 49% | – | 1% |
Public Policy Polling (D) [210] | September 26–27, 2022 | 574 (V) | – | 47% | 47% | – | 6% |
Fox News [211] | September 22–26, 2022 | 1,012 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 44% | 3% [s] | 5% |
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D) [212] | September 18–25, 2022 | 1399 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 51% | 46% | – | 5% |
Data for Progress (D) [213] | September 20–23, 2022 | 999 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 48% | – | 3% |
The Trafalgar Group (R) [214] | September 15–19, 2022 | 1087 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 49% | 47% | – | 5% |
Emerson College [215] | September 16–18, 2022 | 860 (LV) | ± 3.27% | 48% | 44% | 3% | 6% |
Big Data Poll (R) [216] | September 17–18, 2022 | 852 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 49% | 46% | – | – |
Siena College [217] | September 14–15, 2022 | 651 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 47% | 48% | 2% [k] | 4% |
OnMessage Inc. (R) [218] [E] | September 11–13, 2022 | 800 (LV) | – | 49% | 45% | – | 6% |
Civiqs [219] | September 10–13, 2022 | 780 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 49% | 48% | 1% | 2% |
Marquette University [220] | September 6–11, 2022 | 801 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 48% | 47% | – | 5% |
632 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 49% | 48% | – | 3% | ||
The Trafalgar Group (R) [221] | August 22–25, 2022 | 1,091 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 47% | 49% | – | 4% |
Fox News [222] | August 12–16, 2022 | 1,006 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 50% | 1% | 4% |
Marquette University [223] | August 10–15, 2022 | 811 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 44% | 51% | 1% | 4% |
713 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 45% | 52% | 0% | 3% | ||
Marquette University [224] | June 14–20, 2022 | 803 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 44% | 46% | 1% | 8% |
Clarity Campaign Labs (D) [225] [A] | September 8–11, 2021 | 756 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 43% | 43% | – | 14% |
Ron Johnson vs. Sarah Godlewski
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [a] | Margin of error | Ron Johnson (R) | Sarah Godlewski (D) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Marquette University [224] | June 14–20, 2022 | 803 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 43% | 45% | 2% | 10% |
Clarity Campaign Labs (D) [226] [A] | September 8–11, 2021 | 756 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 44% | 41% | – | 15% |
Ron Johnson vs. Alex Lasry
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [a] | Margin of error | Ron Johnson (R) | Alex Lasry (D) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Marquette University [224] | June 14–20, 2022 | 803 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 45% | 42% | 2% | 11% |
Clarity Campaign Labs (D) [226] [A] | September 8–11, 2021 | 756 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 45% | 41% | – | 14% |
Ron Johnson vs. Tom Nelson
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [a] | Margin of error | Ron Johnson (R) | Tom Nelson (D) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Marquette University [224] | June 14–20, 2022 | 803 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 43% | 44% | 2% | 11% |
Change Research (D) [227] [F] | March 25–27, 2021 | 1,723 (LV) | ± 2.6% | 44% | 48% | – | 5% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Ron Johnson (incumbent) | 1,337,185 | 50.41% | +0.24% | |
Democratic | Mandela Barnes | 1,310,467 | 49.41% | +2.60% | |
Independent | Adam Paul (write-in) | 67 | 0.00% | N/A | |
Write-in | 4,758 | 0.18% | +0.13% | ||
Total votes | 2,652,477 | 100.0% | |||
Republican hold |
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Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
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Johnson won 6 of 8 congressional districts. [229]
District | Johnson | Barnes | Representative |
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1st | 52% | 48% | Bryan Steil |
2nd | 28% | 72% | Mark Pocan |
3rd | 53% | 47% | Ron Kind (117th Congress) |
Derrick Van Orden (118th Congress) | |||
4th | 23% | 77% | Gwen Moore |
5th | 63% | 37% | Scott L. Fitzgerald |
6th | 59% | 41% | Glenn Grothman |
7th | 61% | 39% | Tom Tiffany |
8th | 59% | 41% | Mike Gallagher |
Partisan clients
The 2012 United States Senate election in Wisconsin took place on November 6, 2012, alongside a U.S. presidential election as well as other elections to the United States Senate and House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic Senator Herb Kohl retired instead of running for re-election to a fifth term. This was the first open Senate seat in Wisconsin since 1988, when Kohl won his first term.
J. Mandela Barnes is an American politician who served as the 45th lieutenant governor of Wisconsin from 2019 to 2023. A member of the Democratic Party, he was the state representative for the 11th district from 2013 to 2017. Barnes is the first African American to serve as Wisconsin's lieutenant governor.
The 2014 Wisconsin gubernatorial election took place on November 4, 2014, to determine the governor and lieutenant governor of the U.S. state of Wisconsin. It occurred concurrently with elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
The 2016 United States House of Representatives elections in Wisconsin were held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, to elect the eight U.S. representatives from the state of Wisconsin, one from each of the state's eight congressional districts. The elections coincided with the elections of other federal and state offices, including President of the United States and U.S. Senator from Wisconsin. The primaries were held on August 9.
The 2018 Wisconsin gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018. It occurred concurrently with a Senate election in the state, elections to the state's U.S. House seats, and various other elections. Incumbent Republican governor Scott Walker sought re-election to a third term, and was challenged by Democratic candidate and then-Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Evers, as well as Libertarian Phil Anderson and independent Maggie Turnbull. Evers, along with his running mate Mandela Barnes, managed to defeat Walker and Lieutenant Governor Rebecca Kleefisch in a closely fought and widely watched race, ending the state's Republican trifecta.
The 2018 United States Senate election in Wisconsin took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the U.S. Senate from Wisconsin. This election coincided with a gubernatorial election, U.S. House elections and various other state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic senator Tammy Baldwin won re-election to a second term, defeating Republican nominee Leah Vukmir by more than 10 percentage points. This was one of ten Democratic-held Senate seats up for election in a state Donald Trump won in the 2016 presidential election. The primary elections were held on August 14, with a filing deadline on June 1. Baldwin was unopposed for the Democratic nomination, while Vukmir defeated Charles Barman, Griffin Jones, George Lucia and Kevin Nicholson in the Republican primary.
The 2018 United States House of Representatives elections in Wisconsin were held on November 6, 2018, to elect the eight U.S. representatives from the state of Wisconsin, one from each of the state's eight congressional districts. The elections coincided with other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections. The Wisconsin Partisan Primary was held on August 14, 2018, with the governor, U.S. Senator, U.S. Representative, odd-numbered Wisconsin State Senate seats, and all Wisconsin Assembly seats on the ballot.
The 2020 United States House of Representatives elections in Wisconsin were held on November 3, 2020, to elect the eight U.S. representatives from the state of Wisconsin, one from each of the state's eight congressional districts. The elections coincided with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate and various state and local elections. Primaries were held on August 11, 2020.
Sarah Ann Godlewski is an American businesswoman and politician serving as the 31st secretary of state of Wisconsin since March 2023. She was previously the 36th state treasurer of Wisconsin (2019–2023).
The 2024 United States Senate election in Wisconsin was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Wisconsin. Incumbent Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin won re-election to a third term, narrowly defeating Republican nominee Eric Hovde.
The 2022 Wisconsin gubernatorial election was held on November 8, 2022, to elect the governor of Wisconsin. Incumbent Democratic Governor Tony Evers won re-election to a second term by a margin of 3.4%, defeating Republican nominee Tim Michels.
A special election was held to fill the remainder of the term in the United States House of Representatives for Wisconsin's 7th congressional district in the 116th United States Congress. Sean Duffy, the incumbent representative, announced his resignation effective September 23, 2019, as his wife was about to give birth to a child with a heart condition. Governor Tony Evers chose January 27, 2020, as the date for the special election, with the primaries scheduled for December 30, 2019. However, the Department of Justice said that this schedule would be in violation of federal law, since it would provide insufficient time for overseas and military voters to receive ballots. Evers then rescheduled the primaries for February 18, 2020, and the general election for May 12, 2020.
The 2022 United States House of Representatives elections in Wisconsin were held on November 8, 2022, to elect the eight U.S. representatives from the state of Wisconsin, one from each of the state's eight congressional districts. The elections coincided with other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections. Primaries were held on August 9, 2022. The Republican Party won a majority of Wisconsin's U.S. House delegation as well as, notably, 55.5 percent of the statewide vote.
Alexander Jacob Lasry is an American businessperson and executive of the Milwaukee Bucks of the National Basketball Association (NBA). Lasry was a Democratic candidate in the 2022 United States Senate election in Wisconsin, but withdrew before the primary. He is the son of former Milwaukee Bucks co-owner Marc Lasry.
The 2022 Wisconsin fall general election was held in the U.S. state of Wisconsin on November 8, 2022. All of Wisconsin's partisan executive and administrative offices were up for election, as well as one of Wisconsin's U.S. Senate seats, and Wisconsin's eight seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. The fall election also filled the seventeen odd-numbered seats in the Wisconsin Senate and all 99 seats in the Wisconsin State Assembly for the 106th Wisconsin Legislature. The 2022 Wisconsin fall primary was held on August 9, 2022.
The 2022 Milwaukee mayoral special election was held on April 5, 2022, concurrent with Wisconsin's spring general election, to elect a new mayor of Milwaukee, Wisconsin, following the resignation of mayor Tom Barrett in December 2021. Acting mayor Cavalier Johnson, who had been president of the common council when Barrett resigned, won the election, receiving 71% of the vote and defeating alderman Bob Donovan. Johnson became the first African American elected mayor of Milwaukee.
The 2022 Wisconsin Attorney General election took place on November 8, 2022, to elect the Attorney General of Wisconsin. Incumbent Democratic Attorney General Josh Kaul won re-election to a second term. Party nominees were selected in a partisan primary on August 9, 2022.
The 2022 Wisconsin State Treasurer election took place on November 8, 2022, to elect the next state treasurer of Wisconsin. Incumbent Democratic Party Treasurer Sarah Godlewski chose not to seek re-election, instead unsuccessfully running for US Senate.
The 2022 Wisconsin Secretary of State election took place on November 8, 2022, to elect the Secretary of State of Wisconsin. Incumbent Democrat Doug La Follette won re-election to an unprecedented 12th term in the office, narrowly defeating Republican state legislator Amy Loudenbeck. With a margin of 0.29%, this was the closest secretary of state race of the 2022 election cycle.
The 2024 United States House of Representatives elections in Wisconsin were held on November 5, 2024, to elect the eight U.S. representatives from the State of Wisconsin, one from each of the state's congressional districts. The elections coincided with the 2024 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections. Primary elections took place on August 13, 2024.
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