2016 United States Senate election in Wisconsin

Last updated

2016 United States Senate election in Wisconsin
Flag of Wisconsin.svg
←  2010 November 8, 2016 2022  →
Turnout67.34%
  Ron Johnson, official portrait, 112th Congress (3x4b).jpg Portrait 3 (23855558943) (3x4).jpg
Nominee Ron Johnson Russ Feingold
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote1,479,4711,380,335
Percentage50.17%46.81%
2016 United States Senate election in Wisconsin results map by county.svg
2016 Wisconsin Senate election by congressional district.svg
WI 2016 Sen.svg
Johnson:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Feingold:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
     No vote
U.S. senator before election

Ron Johnson
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Ron Johnson
Republican

The 2016 United States Senate election in Wisconsin was held November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Wisconsin, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. The primaries were held August 9, 2016.

Contents

Incumbent Republican Senator Ron Johnson was re-elected to a second term in office. Former U.S. Senator Russ Feingold, whom Johnson unseated in the 2010 midterm elections, sought a rematch for a fourth non-consecutive term in office but was again defeated by Johnson, who became the first Republican to win a Senate election in Wisconsin during a presidential election year since Bob Kasten in 1980. Kasten was ultimately unseated by Feingold in 1992. [1] Johnson's victory was considered an upset as most polling had Feingold in the lead, coinciding with Donald Trump's own surprise victory in the state's presidential contest. Feingold managed to win six counties that voted for Donald Trump; Columbia, Crawford, Lafayette, Richland, Sauk and Vernon. [2]

Background

In 2010, then-incumbent Democratic senator Russ Feingold ran for re-election to a fourth term in 2010 but was defeated by Republican nominee Ron Johnson. [3]

In March 2013, Johnson announced that he had begun fundraising for his campaign. At that time, he had just $1,529 remaining in his campaign account after raising $16.1 million for the 2010 election, over half of which he self-funded. [4] Johnson said in November 2014 that he would not self-finance another campaign, saying: "I made my $9 million investment in this country. I gave it once, I don't think I should do it again." [5] On May 14, 2015, Feingold announced he would run to win back his former Senate seat. [6] Ultimately, Feingold spent over $24 million on the campaign and ended up with more remaining cash than Johnson, who spent only $20 million. [7]

After the Republicans took control of the Senate following the 2014 Senate elections, the election in Wisconsin was seen by many as a top target for the Democrats, who hoped to retake their majority in the traditionally blue state. [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] Politico pointed to Johnson's "worrisome" favorability ratings as one of the main reasons for his vulnerability. [11] A March 2014 Marquette University Law School poll found that just 29% of voters had a favorable opinion of him. [13]

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

  • Russ Feingold, former U.S. Senator, and former U.S. Special Envoy for the African Great Lakes and the Congo-Kinshasa [6]
  • Scott Harbach, perennial candidate

Declined

Results

Democratic primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Russ Feingold 303,282 90.14%
Democratic Scott Harbach33,1859.86%
Total votes336,467 100.00%

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Declared

General election

Candidates

Debates

DatesLocationJohnsonFeingoldLink
October 14, 2016 Green Bay, Wisconsin ParticipantParticipant [20]
October 18, 2016 Milwaukee, Wisconsin ParticipantParticipant Full debate [21]

Endorsements

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [53] TossupNovember 2, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball [54] Lean D (flip)November 7, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report [55] Tilt D (flip)November 3, 2016
Daily Kos [56] Lean D (flip)November 8, 2016
Real Clear Politics [57] TossupNovember 7, 2016

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Ron
Johnson (R)		Russ
Feingold (D)		Phil
Anderson (L)		Other /
Neither		Undecided
SurveyMonkey [58] November 1–7, 20162,246± 4.6%49%48%——3%
SurveyMonkey [59] October 31–November 6, 20161,943± 4.6%49%48%——3%
SurveyMonkey [60] October 28–November 3, 20161,568± 4.6%48%49%——3%
Clarity Campaign Labs [61] November 1–2, 20161,129± 2.9%46%49%——5%
SurveyMonkey [62] October 27–November 2, 20161,271± 4.6%48%48%——4%
Public Policy Polling [63] October 31–November 1, 2016891± 3.3%44%49%——7%
Loras College [64] October 31–November 1, 2016500± 4.4%45%47%2%—6%
SurveyMonkey [65] October 26–November 1, 20161,103± 4.6%50%48%——2%
Marquette University [66] October 26–31, 20161,190 LV± 3.5%44%45%3%2%3%
1,401 RV± 3.3%42%43%5%3%5%
SurveyMonkey [67] October 25–31, 20161,195± 4.6%49%49%——2%
Emerson College [68] October 27–28, 2016400± 4.9%44%49%—4%3%
Let America Work [69] ^October 18–20, 2016600± 4.0%46%48%2%—4%
Club for Growth [70] ^October 18–20, 2016400± 4.2%42%45%——13%
Public Policy Polling [71] October 18–19, 2016804± 3.5%41%47%——12%
Monmouth University [72] October 15–18, 2016403± 4.9%44%52%2%—2%
Wisconsin Public Radio/St. Norbert College [73] October 13–16, 2016664± 3.8%40%52%0%3%5%
Washington Post/SurveyMonkey [74] October 8–16, 20161,076± 0.5%46%51%——3%
Google Consumer Surveys [75] October 12–14, 2016551± 4.2%39%58%——3%
Marquette University [76] October 6–9, 2016839 LV± 3.9%44%46%4%1%4%
46%48%—1%4%
1,000 RV± 3.7%42%44%6%1%6%
44%47%—2%5%
CBS News/YouGov [77] October 5–7, 2016993± 4.3%42%45%——13%
Loras College [78] October 4–5, 2016500± 4.4%45%40%—3%9%
Breitbart/Gravis Marketing [79] October 4, 20161,102± 3.0%41%53%——6%
Emerson College [80] September 19–20, 2016700± 3.6%42%52%—3%4%
Marquette University [81] September 15–18, 2016642 LV± 4.8%39%44%7%—10%
41%47%——8%
802 RV± 4.4%37%44%8%—10%
40%46%——11%
Monmouth University [82] August 27–30, 2016404± 4.9%41%54%2%—3%
Public Policy Polling [83] August 26–27, 20161,054± 3.0%42%49%——9%
Marquette University [81] August 25–28, 2016650 LV± 5.0%42%45%6%—7%
45%48%——7%
803 RV± 4.5%38%42%8%—12%
42%46%——12%
Global Strategy Group [84] August 25, 2016800± 3.5%37%55%——8%
Let America Work [85] ^August 21–22, 2016600± 4.0%47%50%——3%
Marquette University [86] August 4–7, 2016683 LV± 5.0%39%50%7%—4%
42%53%——6%
805 RV± 4.5%38%47%7%—8%
43%49%——8%
Let America Work [85] ^July 30–August 1, 2016600± 4.0%44%50%——6%
Global Strategy Group [84] July 20, 2016800± 3.5%41%52%——7%
Marquette University [87] July 7–10, 2016665 LV± 4.5%40%46%7%—7%
44%49%——7%
801 RV± 4.1%38%45%8%—9%
41%48%——11%
Public Policy Polling [88] June 22–23, 2016843± 3.4%37%50%——13%
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner - Democracy Corps [89] June 11–20, 2016300± 5.7%45%46%——9%
Marquette University [90] June 9–12, 2016666 LV± 4.9%42%51%——7%
800 RV± 4.4%41%45%——14%
Public Policy Polling [91] June 8–9, 2016853± 3.4%41%51%——8%
Wisconsin Public Radio/St. Norbert College [92] April 12–15, 2016616± 4.0%41%51%——6%
Emerson College [93] March 30–April 3, 20161,198± 2.8%44%48%—8%—
Public Policy Polling [94] March 28–29, 20161,397± 2.6%39%46%——15%
Loras College [95] March 28–29, 20161,000± 3.1%39%48%—1%12%
Marquette University [96] March 24–28, 2016957 LV± 4.1%45%48%——7%
1,405 RV± 3.3%42%47%——11%
Marquette University [97] February 18–21, 2016802 RV± 4.5%37%49%——14%
Marquette University [98] January 21–24, 2016806 RV± 4.0%37%50%——13%
Let America Work [99] [a] ^November 16–18, 2015900± 3.3%44%45%——11%
Marquette University [100] November 12–15, 2015803 RV± 4.2%38%49%——13%
Democracy Corps [101] October 24–28, 2015400± 4.9%46%51%——3%
Wisconsin Public Radio/St. Norbert College [102] October 14–17, 2015603± 4.0%40%51%—2%7%
Marquette University [103] September 24–28, 2015803 RV± 4.1%36%50%—7%7%
End Citizens United [104] September 10–14, 2015775± 3.6%39%47%——14%
Marquette University [105] August 13–16, 2015802 RV± 3.5%42%47%——12%
Marquette University [106] April 7–10, 2015803 RV± 3.5%38%54%——9%
Public Policy Polling [107] March 6–8, 20151,071± 3.0%41%50%——9%
Public Policy Polling [108] April 17–20, 20141,144± 2.9%41%47%——12%
Public Policy Polling [109] September 13–16, 20131,180± 2.9%42%49%——9%
Public Policy Polling [110] February 21–24, 2013807± 2.3%42%52%——6%

^ Internal poll taken for Ron Johnson.

Hypothetical polling

with Mary Burke

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Ron
Johnson (R)		Mary
Burke (D)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling [107] March 6–8, 20151,071± 3.0%45%46%9%

with Mark Pocan

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Ron
Johnson (R)		Mark
Pocan (D)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling [107] March 6–8, 20151,071± 3.0%43%36%20%

with Gwen Moore

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Ron
Johnson (R)		Gwen
Moore (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [107] March 6–8, 20151,071± 3.0%45%37%—18%

with Ron Kind

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Ron
Johnson (R)		Ron
Kind (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [107] March 6–8, 20151,071± 3.0%43%37%—20%
Public Policy Polling [108] April 17–20, 20141,144± 2.9%41%39%—20%
Public Policy Polling [109] September 13–16, 20131,180± 2.9%43%40%—17%

Results

2016 United States Senate election in Wisconsin [111]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Ron Johnson (incumbent) 1,479,471 50.17% −1.69%
Democratic Russ Feingold 1,380,33546.81%−0.21%
Libertarian Phil Anderson87,5312.97%N/A
Write-in 1,4040.05%+0.01%
Total votes2,948,741 100.00% N/A
Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Johnson won 6 of 8 congressional districts, including one that elected a Democrat. [112]

DistrictJohnsonFeingoldRepresentative
1st 56%42% Paul Ryan
2nd 30%67% Mark Pocan
3rd 49%47% Ron Kind
4th 26%71% Gwen Moore
5th 63%35% Jim Sensenbrenner
6th 58%38% Glenn Grothman
7th 57%40% Sean Duffy
8th 59%38% Reid Ribble
Mike Gallagher

Notes

  1. ↑ Archived December 8, 2015, at the Wayback Machine

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References

  1. ↑ "Ron Johnson defeats Russ Feingold in Wisconsin's U.S. Senate race".
  2. ↑ "Wisconsin Elections Commission" (PDF). elections.wi.gov. Retrieved June 13, 2023.
  3. ↑ "Election 2010 Wisconsin Results". The New York Times. November 3, 2011. Retrieved February 27, 2011.
  4. ↑ Bivins, Larry (March 11, 2013). "Wis. Sen. Johnson begins re-election bid". USA Today. Retrieved September 20, 2013.
  5. ↑ Catalina Camia (November 19, 2014). "Johnson won't self-finance 2016 Senate race". Green Bay Press Gazette. Retrieved November 21, 2014.
  6. 1 2 Bauer, Scott (May 14, 2015). "Wisconsin's Feingold to Run for US Senate". ABC News . Associated Press.
  7. ↑ "Wisconsin 2016 Senate Race". OpenSecrets . Retrieved July 15, 2018.
  8. ↑ "Why Republicans' Senate majority could be very short-lived". The Washington Post. November 7, 2014. Retrieved November 8, 2014.
  9. ↑ "Here's The Democratic Route Back To Senate Control In 2016". The Huffington Post. November 6, 2014. Retrieved November 13, 2014.
  10. ↑ Weigel, David (July 3, 2014). "The Seven Senate Races Democrats Should Be Optimistic About in 2016". Slate. Retrieved November 8, 2014.
  11. 1 2 "The 10 states that could decide the next Senate". Politico. November 12, 2014. Retrieved November 13, 2014.
  12. ↑ "Tough Tests Looming in 2016 Raise Stakes for G.O.P. in Midterm Elections". The New York Times. April 12, 2014. Retrieved November 13, 2014.
  13. ↑ "Marquette Law School Poll, March 20-23, 2014" (PDF). Marquette University Law School. March 2014. Retrieved November 19, 2014.
  14. ↑ Mulvany, Lydia (March 11, 2013). "Sen. Ron Johnson says he'll seek re-election in 2016". JS Online. Retrieved September 20, 2013.
  15. ↑ "Mary Burke says she won't run for statewide office again". Wisconsin State Journal. November 10, 2014. Retrieved November 10, 2014.
  16. 1 2 Larson, Chris (May 14, 2015). "Russ Feingold for Wisconsin - count me in!". Facebook. Retrieved May 14, 2015.
  17. 1 2 Levinson, Alexis (December 12, 2014). "Wisconsin Democrat: Russ Feingold Would Clear Primary". Roll Call. Archived from the original on June 1, 2015. Retrieved June 2, 2015.
  18. ↑ Pocan, Mark (May 14, 2015). "Did you see the big news today?". Facebook. Retrieved May 14, 2015.
  19. ↑ "Phil Anderson declares 2016 candidacy for US Senate in Wisconsin". Libertarian Party . November 19, 2015. Retrieved February 2, 2016.
  20. ↑ Full debate - C-SPAN
  21. ↑ Full debate - C-SPAN
  22. ↑ Tokars, Mike (June 20, 2016). "GOP Calls In The Big Gun: George W. Bush is on the campaign trail". The National Memo . Retrieved June 21, 2016.
  23. ↑ Walker, Scott (October 15, 2016). "If you think Obamacare is a success, then vote for Sen. Feingold. If not, vote for Ron Johnson. #WISen". Twitter . Retrieved October 15, 2016.
  24. ↑ "Lindsey Graham Campaigns for Ron Johnson in Wisconsin". October 27, 2016.
  25. ↑ Crowe, Kevin (November 5, 2016). "McCain backs Johnson in web ad". Milwaukee Journal Sentinel . Retrieved November 6, 2016.
  26. ↑ "Paul Ryan endorses Ron Johnson at Burlington Grassroots rally". ronjohnsonforsenate.com. May 5, 2016. Retrieved September 23, 2016.
  27. ↑ Arkin, James (January 8, 2016). "Bolton Endorses 16 for Re-Election to Congress". RealClearPolitics . Retrieved January 10, 2016.
  28. ↑ Behr, Madeleine (December 7, 2015). "Johnson rips Obama for 'lack of leadership'". The Post-Crescent . Retrieved February 10, 2016.
  29. ↑ Sherfinski, David (November 12, 2014). "Club for Growth endorses six GOP senators for re-election in 2016". The Washington Times . Retrieved November 12, 2014.
  30. ↑ "National Federation of Independent Business endorses Ron Johnson". ronjohnsonforsenate.com. April 23, 2016. Archived from the original on June 10, 2016. Retrieved September 21, 2016.
  31. ↑ "Vote Ron Johnson for U.S. Senate: A Rated and Endorsed by NRA-PVF". nrapvf.org. Archived from the original on October 18, 2016. Retrieved October 14, 2016.
  32. ↑ Glauber, Bill (March 23, 2016). "U.S. Chamber of Commerce backs Johnson in Senate race". Milwaukee Journal Sentinel . Retrieved March 27, 2016.
  33. ↑ "ACU Endorses Ron Johnson". American Conservative Union.
  34. 1 2 Sommerhauser, Mark (March 18, 2016). "Barack Obama, Joe Biden endorse Russ Feingold". Wisconsin State Journal . Retrieved March 20, 2016.
  35. ↑ Carney, Jordain (January 27, 2016). "Ex-Pentagon chief donates to Feingold". The Hill . Retrieved February 2, 2016.
  36. ↑ Tammy Baldwin (May 18, 2015). "Have you heard? My good friend Russ Feingold is running for Senate! He's a champion of Wisconsin's progressive values, and was a friend to me in my race in 2012. Let's help him get off to a running start -- contribute to his campaign today! - TB". Facebook. Retrieved May 18, 2015.
  37. ↑ Terkel, Amanda (May 26, 2016). "Bernie Sanders fundraising for Russ Feingold". The Huffington Post . Retrieved May 26, 2016.
  38. 1 2 Easley, Jonathan (May 14, 2015). "Russ Feingold running for Senate". The Hill . Retrieved May 14, 2015.
  39. ↑ Opoien, Jessie (September 27, 2015). "Elizabeth Warren, Russ Feingold talk student debt at UW-Madison". The Capital Times . Retrieved February 2, 2016.
  40. ↑ Mark Pocan (May 14, 2015). "Did you see the big news today?". Facebook. Retrieved May 14, 2015.
  41. 1 2 3 4 Glauber, Bill (February 16, 2016). "Fire fighter union endorses Russ Feingold". Milwaukee Journal Sentinel . Retrieved March 4, 2016.
  42. 1 2 Glauber, Bill (February 8, 2016). "WEAC, AFT-Wisconsin endorse Russ Feingold". Milwaukee Journal Sentinel . Retrieved February 10, 2016.
  43. ↑ Delong, Katie (October 5, 2016). "Russ Feingold endorsed by IBEW; Ron Johnson calls him a "career politician with little to show for it"". WITI . Retrieved October 14, 2016.
  44. ↑ Behr, Madeleine (August 28, 2015). "Steelworkers endorse Feingold". The Post-Crescent . Retrieved February 2, 2016.
  45. ↑ "Blue America Endorses Russ Feingold".
  46. ↑ McCarter, Joan (September 16, 2015). "Let's take Wisconsin and the Senate back: Daily Kos endorses Russ Feingold". Daily Kos . Retrieved February 2, 2016.
  47. ↑ Friedenbach, Laura (October 7, 2016). "Every Voice Endorses Russ Feingold for Senate". Every Voice . Archived from the original on October 18, 2016. Retrieved October 14, 2016.
  48. ↑ Staff, HRC (September 30, 2016). "HRC Endorses Russ Feingold of Wisconsin for U.S. Senate". Human Rights Campaign . Archived from the original on October 1, 2016. Retrieved October 14, 2016.
  49. 1 2 Cama, Timothy (February 10, 2016). "Two green groups back Feingold in Wisconsin Senate race". The Hill . Retrieved March 4, 2016.
  50. ↑ Stewart, Brian (May 15, 2015). "MoveOn Members' First 2016 Endorsement: Russ Feingold". MoveOn.org . Retrieved October 14, 2016.
  51. 1 2 Opoien, Jessie (February 9, 2016). "Planned Parenthood, NOW endorse Russ Feingold in Senate race". The Capital Times . Retrieved February 10, 2016.
  52. ↑ Easley, Cameron (September 20, 2016). "Bernie Sanders' Group Endorses Deborah Ross". Morning Consult . Archived from the original on October 18, 2016. Retrieved October 14, 2016.
  53. ↑ "2016 Senate Race Ratings for November 2, 2016". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 26, 2021.
  54. ↑ "2016 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 19, 2016.
  55. ↑ "2016 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved November 3, 2016.
  56. ↑ "Daily Kos Election 2016 forecast: The final version". Daily Kos. Retrieved March 27, 2021.
  57. ↑ "Battle for the Senate 2016". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved October 28, 2016.
  58. ↑ SurveyMonkey
  59. ↑ SurveyMonkey
  60. ↑ SurveyMonkey
  61. ↑ Clarity Campaign Labs
  62. ↑ SurveyMonkey
  63. ↑ Public Policy Polling
  64. ↑ Loras College
  65. ↑ SurveyMonkey
  66. ↑ Marquette University
  67. ↑ SurveyMonkey
  68. ↑ Emerson College
  69. ↑ Let America Work
  70. ↑ Club for Growth
  71. ↑ Public Policy Polling
  72. ↑ Monmouth University
  73. ↑ Wisconsin Public Radio/St. Norbert College
  74. ↑ Washington Post/SurveyMonkey Archived September 14, 2017, at the Wayback Machine
  75. ↑ Google Consumer Surveys
  76. ↑ Marquette University
  77. ↑ CBS News/YouGov
  78. ↑ Loras College
  79. ↑ Breitbart/Gravis Marketing
  80. ↑ Emerson College
  81. 1 2 Marquette University
  82. ↑ Monmouth University
  83. ↑ Public Policy Polling
  84. 1 2 Global Strategy Group
  85. 1 2 Let America Work
  86. ↑ Marquette University
  87. ↑ Marquette University
  88. ↑ Public Policy Polling
  89. ↑ Greenberg Quinlan Rosner - Democracy Corps Archived July 5, 2016, at the Wayback Machine
  90. ↑ Marquette University
  91. ↑ Public Policy Polling
  92. ↑ Wisconsin Public Radio/St. Norbert College
  93. ↑ Emerson College
  94. ↑ Public Policy Polling
  95. ↑ Loras College
  96. ↑ Marquette University
  97. ↑ Marquette University
  98. ↑ Marquette University
  99. ↑ Let America Work Archived December 8, 2015, at the Wayback Machine
  100. ↑ Marquette University
  101. ↑ Democracy Corps Archived February 28, 2016, at the Wayback Machine
  102. ↑ Wisconsin Public Radio/St. Norbert College
  103. ↑ Marquette University
  104. ↑ End Citizens United
  105. ↑ Marquette University
  106. ↑ Marquette University
  107. 1 2 3 4 5 Public Policy Polling
  108. 1 2 Public Policy Polling
  109. 1 2 Public Policy Polling
  110. ↑ Public Policy Polling
  111. ↑ "2016 General Election" (PDF). State of Wisconsin. November 8, 2016. Archived from the original (PDF) on December 14, 2016. Retrieved December 20, 2016.
  112. ↑ "Wisconsin Elections Results | Wisconsin Elections Commission". Archived from the original on April 25, 2018. Retrieved April 29, 2018.

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